For the uninitiated, read the introduction to DRC+, read why it’s the best metric, get into the comparisons with other hitting metrics, and take a look at how it performs. That’s just a handful of the good stuff this week. After I went through it all, the first thing I wanted to know was how the Yankees’ hitters stood up, particularly compared to wRC+, which has been my preferred metric historically (with apologies to True Average).

Here’s what I learned:

A trio of hitters deserved better

Whether signing late, sporadic playing time or something else entirely caused Neil Walker to struggle this season isn’t clear. If you showed me his 81 wRC+ a week ago, it would feel just right. His 96 DRC+, with a standard deviation (SD) of 11, tells another story. What’s better is that it’s easy to understand why. One likely reason is that the metric sees Walker’s low .257 BABIP as bit fluky (hence “D” standing for “deserved”). One more point to note is the SD, meaning that there’s high confidence Walker’s DRC+ was between 85 and 107. At the low end, Walker was still better than what wRC+ said. At the high end, Walker really got screwed. Given that Walker had marks of 111 and 113 in 2017 and 2016 respectively, it’s not hard to believe that Walker might have been better than advertised. His next team might be lucky to have them, and it’s not crazy to say the Yankees should consider bringing him back.

The next two hitters, Greg Bird, and Gary Sanchez have quite a bit of uncertainty, but their baseline DRC+ is certainly better than their wRC+. Bird’s DRC+ of 91 (SD of 15) tops his wRC+ of 81. Now, his 91 mark isn’t anything to write home about, but he wasn’t as awful as he seemed. Still, he’s got plenty to prove even though he had a ghastly .230 BABIP.

Sanchez’s baseline DRC+ was 97, but could have been as high as 115 or as low as 79. Anecdotally, The Kraken lined out a million times last season, and his .197 BABIP seems to reflect that. He also walked a career-best 12.3 percent of the time, which gives him further credit. wRC+ pegged Sanchez at 89, not terribly far off from his DRC+, but certainly worse. Given Sanchez’s talent, it’s pretty easy to believe in his DRC+ and the possibility that it might actually be on the positive side of standard deviation.

The hitters who confirmed the eye test

One of the reasons we’ll never get away from stats like home runs and batting average is because they are so much easier to see with the eye. For that reason, it’s hard to imagine someone saying that Didi Gregorius or Gleyber Torres suffered from some bad luck this season. Both displayed good power and patience at the dish and had very strong traditional numbers. To no surprise, both infielders’ wRC+ marks indicated the same: 121 for Gregorius and 120 for Torres. Yet, DRC+ pegged the former for 128 (11 SD) and the latter for 124 (12 SD).

DRC+ isn’t fully confident that they actually deserved better, as the downside of its uncertainty would bring the metric below both players’ wRC+. Still, it’s nice to see what at essentially amounts to a confirmation of the eye tests. It’s satisfying to know that Torres is the real deal and that Gregorius doesn’t merely take advantage of the short porch.

Aaron Hicks DRC+ and wRC+ were nearly identical, at 128 and 127 a piece. The SD of 12 indicates that there could be some disagreement, but for all intents and purposes, Hicks got what he deserved.

Not as good as we thought (but still good)

Bet you didn’t expect Aaron Judge to show up in this category. Neither did I. Alas, his 133 DRC+ (13 SD) is quite a bit lower than his 149 wRC+. In all likelihood, Judge’s sky-high .368 BABIP knocks him down a bit, because the only other thing he really does wrong is rack up the strikeouts. Judge carried a .357 BABIP in his monster rookie campaign, and his DRC+ of 162 (14 SD) was also lower than his wRC+ (172). Judge struck out just over 30 percent of the time in both campaigns. Going forward, I’m intrigued to see if Judge is one of those players that “outperforms” his DRC+ because he hits the ball so hard, which could keep his BABIP elevated.

Bet you’re not stunned that Giancarlo Stanton‘s DRC+ (114, 8 SD) didn’t meet his wRC+ (127). There’s no doubt that Stanton was quite productive, but he also saw his walk rate drop while posting his highest BABIP since 2014. For whatever it’s worth, Stanton’s DRC+ has been pretty volatile throughout his career. Here’s each season since he debuted in 2010: 110, 129, 144, 124, 157, 145, 110, 151, 114. It’s been a bit of a roller coaster in recent seasons, but we all know the ability is there for him to be a monster in the heart of the order.

In my eyes, Miguel Andujar has the most fascinating differential between DRC+ and wRC+. Per BP’s newest metric, Andujar had a 114 DRC+, plus or minus 10. wRC+ liked Andujar much more, at 128. In everything that’s been written about DRC+ this week, it’s been made clear that the stat accounts for things that are a bit more luck-driven rather than simply taken as earned (i.e. singles, triples). In other words, that’s why I’ve highlighted BABIP quite a bit in this post. Andujar’s .316 BABIP isn’t outlandish, but what scares DRC+ a bit is his low walk rate (4.1 percent). For the most part, drawing walks is a skill, and DRC+ stresses the importance of skill. If Andujar never improves his plate discipline, he could be susceptible to down years if he runs into poor BABIP luck. I think this is what his DRC+ is trying to tell us.

Do we really trust this guy?

Here’s the fun one: Luke Voit. He only had 161 plate appearances this season, and all but 13 of them were with the Yankees. Simply put, Voit raked. He hit 14 homers, got on base a ton (.405 OBP), and was a whole lot of fun to watch. DRC+ thinks he was pretty great too, giving him a 154 score albeit in a small sample size. Of course, DRC+ tempers the enthusiasm from his 187 wRC+. I don’t think anyone believes Voit is 187 wRC+ good. Ted Williams’ career wRC+ was 188, for reference. Is 154 reasonable? This is the guy DRC+ is most uncertain about on the Yankees, putting his range between 132 (still good!) and 176. Having only 161 trips to the plate will drive up anyone’s standard deviation, so it’s understandable that there’s such a large gap for Voit. Still, I think we can at the minimum take away that the Yankees were on to something when they acquired Voit. The front office has said as much regarding the information they had on him while he was in the Cardinals organization, and it appears that the team is pretty confident in him next year even though it’s fair to be skeptical.

Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro / USA TODAY Sports

From the start of his career through 2017, Paxton allowed only 0.7 home runs per nine innings. This season, he surrendered 23 homers in 160.1 innings, or 1.3 per nine frames. Pitchers like Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia have had success in the Bronx despite giving up dingers at a similar rate, but they’re also not necessarily frontline starters like Paxton is expected to be.

More fly balls usually means more home runs, and that’s precisely what occurred to Paxton this season. Historically, Paxton has generated tons of grounders when he wasn’t striking out batters. In 2018, he gave up more fly balls than grounders for the first time in his career, and subsequently, more homers than ever.

It’s not totally clear why Paxton’s batted ball profile changed. His pitch location is basically the same (2018, 2017, 2016). Maybe, just maybe, one could argue that he’s elevating his pitches a tad more, but really, he basically challenges opponents to hit his fastball. Those linked heatmaps are pretty much all dark red over the middle of the plate. In terms of pitch selection, Paxton hasn’t wavered either. He predominantly relies on his fastball and cutter with a few curveballs mixed in. Certainly, the league’s hitting environment has changed, but why didn’t that affect Paxton when the fly ball revolution began in earnest in 2017?

If Paxton is truly a fly ball pitcher going forward, he’s going to continue to allow home runs, especially in Yankee Stadium and the AL East. On the bright side, maybe Paxton’s home run to fly ball rate is due for some regression. The 14.4 percent mark is comfortably above league average and way out of line with Big Maple’s career norms. If Paxton was league average (12.7 percent), he’d have allowed 20 homers in 160.1 innings, or 1.1 per nine innings. At ten percent, which is a little closer to his recent marks but not quite as good, he’d have given up 16 long balls, or 0.9 per nine innings.

Aside from some home run rate regression, DRA gives Paxton another vote of confidence. Despite 2017 being better from a results standpoint (i.e. ERA), the southpaw’s DRA that year was virtually the same as this season. He had a 2.63 DRA in 2017 and followed it up with a 2.67 mark this year. It’s quite a bit easier to rely on those marks than upon me pontificating about Paxton’s home run to fly ball rate!

There’s no debating that Paxton will be a good pitcher for the Yankees next season. The real question is: how good will he be? Aside from health, home runs allowed will likely tell the tale of Paxton’s career in pinstripes. If he essentially repeats this season, he’ll be a very good mid-rotation starter. If he regresses a bit or lives up to his DRA, he’s unequivocally an ace.

Batted ball rates from Fangraphs. Pitch heatmaps from Baseball Savant.

With Gardner back in the mix, the Yankees have a bunch of outfielders on the roster, but only so much playing time to go around. Obviously, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Hicks are going to play as much as possible. Whether or not Stanton is essentially a full-time designated hitter again is a separate question. He seemed to get better in left field as 2018 went on, but maybe the team is still reluctant to play him there. Let’s not forget about Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier, though I’m sure we’d rather forget the former. Throw in the potential to sign a free agent like Bryce Harper, and things get really crowded. It may seem like there is an excess of outfielders, but unless the Yankees are extremely fortunate, at least one of these guys will get hurt next season. That means the 35-year-old Gardner is going to play to some extent. The question is: what’s his ideal usage?

Year after year, it seems like Gardner gets off to a torrid start offensively and wears down by the dog days of summer. The data above pretty much confirms that notion (with 2016 being an exception).  In 2015, Gardner peaked at plate appearance number 352. 2017 was a bit of a roller coaster; he topped off early at his 169th trip, cooled down for another 150 or so plate appearances, and plateaued again at 449. In 2018, he topped out at plate appearance number 249 and was pretty much all downhill thereafter.

Gardner is a max-effort player every single time he’s involved on the field. So it should be no wonder that his offensive output slows down as the year goes on, especially as he’s entered his mid-thirties. To maximize his production in 2019, he probably shouldn’t go to bat much more than 400 times, if possible. The days of 600-plus plate appearances are over.

Toward the very end of this season, I think we got the hint that the Yankees recognize that it’s time to curtail Gardner’s playing time. With Andrew McCutchen on the roster and Aaron Judge finally healthy, the outfield was full and Gardner was basically in a platoon with McCutchen. Considering Gardner’s struggles against southpaws and his well documented late season swoons, a similar plan would make sense in 2019.

Of course, the best laid plans are just that — plans. There’s always a chance that Gardner will be thrust into the thick of things should the dreaded injury bug strike. Still, the offseason is barely a few days old, so the team’s outfield intentions are still somewhat unknown. And, given the lineup construction after Judge returned, it seems reasonable to expect that the Yankees are aiming to limit Gardner’s time even if there are injuries. At this point of his career, he’s an excellent part-time player, and that should be the role he plays in 2019 no matter what happens around him.

Photo Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

ALDS: Yankees vs. Astros

Game 1:

Twice, the Yankees’ offense provided the Yankees’ pitching with leads. Both times, the leads were blown. Miguel Andujar’s two-run homer against Justin Verlander in the third inning provided Luis Severino with a 2-0 advantage, but Houston leveled the score an inning later. Carlos Correa drilled a solo shot to tie it, Yuli Gurriel reached on an error, and Josh Reddick drove in Gurriel with a single. In the top of the fifth, Didi Gregorius launched a solo homer against Verlander to regain the lead, 3-2. Severino pitched a clean fifth, handing it off to the bullpen to finish the game. The plan was to go from Tommy Kahnle to Brad Hand to David Robertson to Aroldis Chapman. Kahnle pitched a clean sixth but ran into trouble in the seventh. After back-to-back walks to start the inning, Brad Hand was summoned to face Brian McCann for the left-on-left matchup. Unfortunately, McCann drilled a game-tying double, leaving runners on second and third with still no one out. Hand luckily escaped with the game tied, but the damage was done. Meanwhile, the Yankees had no answer for the Houston bullpen, leading to Robertson entering the game with it still tied at three in the eighth. It only took three batters for Houston to take a 4-3 lead: Correa doubled, Gurriel singled, and Josh Reddick hit a sacrifice fly. Robertson didn’t allow anything else. In the ninth, Greg Bird’s one-out single was the only action for the Bombers; a combination of Ken Giles and Brad Ziegler finished the game to give the Astros a 1-0 series advantage.

Game 2:

When a game’s starters are Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel, one doesn’t expect eight home runs to be hit between the two teams. Yet, this one turned out to be a seesaw slugfest that went down to the wire. The Yankees jumped ahead early, 2-0, thanks to a bases-loaded walk by Aaron Hicks and a solo home run by Gary Sanchez. Bumgarner was cruising through three innings, but ran into trouble in the fourth, though it wasn’t all his doing. Miguel Andujar booted a grounder that let Yuli Gurriel reach base with one out. Bumgarner fanned the next batter, Josh Reddick, but extended the inning by walking Marwin Gonzalez. Up came Brian McCann, and out went the baseball for a three-run jack, putting Houston on top, 3-2. That lead was short-lived, as Sanchez went yard again in the fifth to tie it up. Did I mention that there were eight homers hit in this game? In the bottom of the fifth, George Springer broke the tie with a solo dinger of his own. In the Yankees next turn at bat, the seesaw swung back in their favor for good: Didi Gregorius launched a two-run home run against Joe Smith to put the Yankees in the lead, 5-4. Bumgarner finished a clean sixth inning, setting up the bullpen to hold this one down. Giancarlo Stanton added an insurance run with a solo homer against Chris Devenski in the seventh. After that, it was Dellin Betances for a clean seventh inning before handing the ball to Aroldis Chapman for a two-inning save. Fortunately, Aaron Judge added one more insurance run with a solo shot in the top of the ninth, because Chapman started running out of gas. Marwin Gonzalez led off the ninth with a single, and two batters later, Alex Bregman blasted a two-run bomb to cut the Yankees lead to one. Carlos Correa then flew out to the warning track – exhale – and George Springer grounded out to end the game. Series level, 1-1. Back to the Bronx we go.

Game 3:

The story of game three was the battle of the bullpens. Masahiro Tanaka was pulled with nobody out in the third, with the Yankees down 3-2, forcing Jonathan Holder to escape from a jam unscathed. On the other side, Lance McCullers got off to a rough start, settled down for a few innings, but then fell apart in the fifth. Giancarlo Stanton’s two-run homer in the first was the early damage, and Gary Sanchez’s three-run dinger in the fifth was the knockout blow. At that time, it was 5-4 Yankees with a fresh bullpen after a day off to hold things down. Later, Aaron Hicks made it 6-4 in seventh on a solo home run, giving the bullpen more cushion. Tommy Kahnle threw a scoreless seventh, setting it up for David Robertson and Aroldis Chapman to close it out. Robertson wasn’t up to the task; he ceded the ball to Brad Hand after three batters, exiting with runners on first and second with no one out. Hand entered against Derek Fisher and struck him out. Two down. Up came Carlos Correa, who singled to load the bases. Yuli Gurriel walked on four pitches to make the score 6-5. Josh Reddick drove in two more runs on a single to give the Astros a one-run lead, which knocked Hand out of the game. Dellin Betances cleaned up the mess, but the damage was done. Ken Giles blanked the Yankees in the eighth and Brad Ziegler shut the door in the ninth to put the Astros at a 2-1 series advantage.

Game 4:

For the second straight season, the Yankees were eliminated by the Astros. Justin Verlander was the team’s kryptonite as the bats went silent, scoring just one run. Meanwhile, Sonny Gray lasted just one inning and allowed two runs, which was all Houston needed. Luis Severino came on in relief and kept the Yankees in the game, throwing four and two-thirds innings of two-run ball. After Verlander, Ken Giles delivered a two-inning save, striking out four and allowing just one baserunner. And that is how the OOTP Yankees’ season ends.

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A disappointing ending to the season for sure, but there’s not much shame in losing to a team as good as the Astros. Before we get to the playoff results, here are the regular season statistics:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQQb_NQZz4qeDj6PIEbBe0KyQhH1jnKYx7Q7gaBrbiuEafw5I5sDVYULHefA_EElgikVoWHEiiS_9bX/pubhtml

Playoff Bracket:

Your world champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers…

[Insert screenshot here]

End of Season Awards:

Here are the players who took home virtual hardware, including one Yankees pitcher…

• AL Rookie of the Year: Austin Hays, Orioles
• NL Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna, Braves
• AL Manager of the Year: Terry Francona, Indians
• NL Manager of the Year: Dave Roberts, Dodgers
• AL Cy Young Award: Luis Severino, Yankees
• NL Cy Young Award: Noah Syndergaard, Mets
• AL MVP: Mookie Betts, Red Sox
• NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks

Four games in Tampa Bay

It took extra innings, but the virtual Yanks started off the week with a win in Tampa Bay, beating the Rays 4-3 in extras. Tyler Austin was the offensive hero, blasting the go-ahead homer against Brian Miller. Extra inning affairs are always tough on the bullpen – but this one was especially so. Sonny Gray only recorded eleven outs, forcing the ‘pen into action early. Adam Warren, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Brad Hand, Jonathan Holder, and Aroldis Chapman all pitched. On the bright side, Boston lost to the Orioles, putting the Yankees even closer to clinching. With a four game edge in the loss column and six games remaining, the Yankees could clinch before going to Fenway at the end of the week.

Just a day after reaching deep into the bullpen, Jordan Montgomery pitched deep into the game. He was excellent in seven and two-thirds; he didn’t allow a run and struck out six. Meanwhile, the offense was dormant, getting only two hits and one run all game, but it was enough. Aroldis Chapman notched the save for a 1-0 victory. The Red Sox fell to Baltimore yet again, dropping the Yankees’ magic number to one. Doesn’t look like the season finale series in Boston will mean anything.

Pop the champagne! The only better way to clinch would have been in Boston, but who can complain as division champs? An easy 7-0 win with a dominant Madison Bumgarner on the hill sealed the AL East’s fate. Bumgarner contributed eight shutout frames and the offense delivered a stellar all-around performance.

The fourth and final game featured the Yankees’ hangover lineup: Curtis Granderson, David Freese, Greg Bird, Tyler Austin, Austin Romine, Billy McKinney, Ronald Torreyes, Tyler Wade, and Thairo Estrada. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it mustered just one run. Yet, thanks to a brilliant complete game shutout thrown by Masahiro Tanaka, not much hitting was necessary. The Yankees completed the four-game sweep without really trying.

A chance to spoil Boston’s season

The only thing the Yankees had to play for was the American League’s second-best record, which though important for home-field advantage in the division series, it’s not quite as much as what Boston had on the line. Entering the series, here’s what the Wild Card race looks like:

1. Red Sox: 88-71
2. Mariners: 87-72
3. Twins: 87-72
4. Athletics: 85-74

Four teams, two playoff spots, and only three games separating them. All but Oakland were guaranteed to still be alive by game 161. If the Yankees could beat up on Boston, there was a chance to eliminate them from postseason play entirely.

To start, things looked good. The Yankees scored four runs in the first inning, including a three-run homer by Giancarlo Stanton (his 55th). Plus, CC Sabathia was great until the sixth inning, which was when the wheels came off. Up 4-0 at the time, Sabathia gave up five runs in the inning, though he was an out away from finishing up 4-2 when Jackie Bradley Jr. hit a three-run homer. Boston never looked back and eventually won, 7-5. Seattle and Minnesota won to keep pace, while Oakland lost and was eliminated from Wild Card contention.

Game two also was looking good, but the bullpen blew it in this one. Luis Severino pitched well into the seventh inning and exited up 3-2. Brad Hand finished that inning and started the eighth, which is when the trouble began. Hand coughed up two runs, one of them inherited by David Robertson. Up 4-3, Craig Kimbrel came in to close it out and notch Boston a playoff spot. The win guaranteed Boston at least a tie for a Wild Card spot, as Seattle and Minnesota won again. In fact, there’s a chance for there to be a three-way tie for the two available Wild Card spots!

Boston was determined to avoid a three-way tie, as they clobbered the Yankees in the season finale. Sonny Gray threw a stinker, giving up six runs in three innings, and Domingo German was no good to boot. He surrendered four more runs and Boston was victorious, 10-2. Minnesota won and Seattle lost, so we don’t even get a tie for the second Wild Card spot.

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Here’s a summary of all things parallel universe Yankees:

Postseason bracket

I’ll provide final season stats, awards, et. al. once the World Series is complete. For now, here is the postseason bracket:

ALDS1: Cleveland vs. winner of Wild Card game

ALDS2: Yankees vs. Astros

ALWC: Boston vs. Minnesota

NLDS1: Mets vs. winner of Wild Card game

NLDS2: Diamondbacks vs. Cubs

NLWC: Dodgers vs. Rockies

TL;DR

So much for a nail biting finish to the season. Though it had once appeared that the Red Sox and Yankees could have been fighting for the division title through the season’s finale series at Fenway, the Yankees didn’t oblige. Instead, they swept a four game set against the Rays, and in the process, knocked out the Red Sox from AL East contention. Even though some of the spice was removed from the final series of the season, the Yankees did have a chance to knock out Boston from the playoffs entirely given the tight Wild Card race. Unfortunately, Boston swept the Yanks to seal their postseason berth.

Division on the line

The opener’s pitching matchup was a doozy: Luis Severino vs. Chris Sale. Well, it was supposed to be a doozy. Instead, the Yankees bats took it to Sale while Severino pitched well. Boston’s ace gave up four homers: one to Aaron Judge, one to Tyler Austin, one to Didi Gregorius, and one to Aaron Hicks. They tallied six runs in total against Sale and added three more against Boston’s bullpen, which was plenty of run support for Severino. One of those runs was a Gary Sanchez home run, his 43rd, which set the single-season record for catchers. The Yankees’ ace gave up two runs in six innings and struck out nine batters. A nice way to set the tone and boost the division lead to two and a half games.

Game two featured the Sonny Gray we’re accustomed to witnessing in real life. Instead of his usual excellent virtual self, Gray got knocked around in this one. He put the Yankees down early, as the Red Sox rallied for four runs in the first en route to scoring seven total against him. Nonetheless, the Yankees bats fought back against Steven Wright and Boston’s bullpen. Down 7-1 late in the game, they tallied four runs in the seventh behind Greg Bird and Aaron Hicks long balls. Unfortunately, it was too little too late, as Boston was able to make it with a lead until the ninth when stalwart Craig Kimbrel shut the door on a 7-5 Boston victory.

The rubber game’s pitching matchup, Madison Bumgarner vs. Brian Johnson, clearly put the Yankees at an advantage. The game doesn’t always go the way it looks on paper, but in this instance, it sure did. Bumgarner dominated in seven innings of work, stifling the Red Sox to just one run. Meanwhile, Johnson was knocked out of the game in the third inning. There were home runs aplenty, including Giancarlo’s 51st and Sanchez’s 44th and 45th. In the end, the Yankees’ mop up relievers (Chance Adams and Gio Gallegos) gave up three runs, but with such a large cushion, there wasn’t much concern. The Yankees came out on top, 8-4. All told, the Yankees added a game to their division lead and closed the series up two and a half games.

One piece of injury news to report: in the final game of the series, Chance Adams was pulled because of an injury. Before the next series against Baltimore, he was diagnosed with a torn labrum, which will sideline him for a year.

Baltimore

The series opener was rained out, meaning a doubleheader was set for Saturday. Boston won a game in the meantime against Cleveland, which cut the Yankees lead to two games. Shouldn’t be a concern though, right? With Baltimore in town, the Yankees should have no issue taking care of business. Sometimes, though, you run into a great pitcher like Chris Tillman. Over seven innings, he allowed just one run to lower his sky-high ERA to 5.97. Masahiro Tanaka did not pitch well in the loss, though Justus Sheffield made his big league debut and threw three scoreless innings in long relief. The final score was 5-3, though it never felt quite that close as the Yankees were down 5-1 to open the ninth.

The nightcap was much better. The Yankees absolutely destroyed Baltimore’s pitching, scoring 20 runs. That’s right, 20. But it was more than just an offensive display, as CC Sabathia was absolutely brilliant in perhaps the final start of his virtual career. He threw a complete game and allowed just one run. He struck out seven Orioles. Boston lost its Saturday game, bringing the Yankees advantage back up to two and a half games. One final piece of housekeeping: Greg Bird was suspended for four games as a result of a benches-clearing brawl in this game. He charged the mound after Branden Kline drilled him.

To close out the series and the week, the Yanks turned to their ace, Luis Severino. This one wasn’t Sevy’s finest outing, but he battled through five innings and allowed three runs. In relief, the bullpen was excellent, and the offense finally broke through the 3-3 tie in the eighth inning. Aroldis Chapman got the save chance, his first outing of the week, but didn’t show any rust while pitching a 1-2-3 inning to seal the victory. The Red Sox maintained the pace by beating Cleveland.

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Real Universe Yankees: 95-60 (Eliminated from the division race, 1,5 games ahead of Oakland for Wild Card #1)

Alternate Universe Yankees: 89-66 (first place, 2.5 games ahead of Boston)

And here’s a snapshot of all things alternate universe Yankees:

 TL;DR

Boston came to the Bronx to open this week for perhaps the biggest series of the season. Only a game and a half separated the two squads to start the week, but by the time it ended, the Yankees increased their division lead to two and a half games. The Yanks and Sox exchanged wins in the first two games of the week, but in the rubber game, Madison Bumgarner and the offense lifted the team to victory and come away with a series win. Against the Orioles, it also took until the third game to win the series, but the Yanks did just that while Boston did the very same against Cleveland. All told a successful week given that they added space in the small separation the team has from Boston.

Division lead swept away in Minnesota

The Twins are normally a doormat for the Yankees, but with Jose Berrios on the hill for Minnesota to start this series, all bets were off. The Twins’ ace didn’t go deep, but he was dominant: he struck out eleven batters in five innings and only allowed one run. The Twins led 2-1 at the time of Berrios’s departure, but his bullpen was rock solid. In four innings, they allowed only one run, while Miguel Sano blasted a solo shot for some insurance, making the final 3-2. The Red Sox were off, so the Yankees’ division lead fell to two games.

Game two didn’t go much better for the Yankees. Jake Odorizzi was good (six innings, two runs) and the Twins’ bullpen was dominant. Yet, the Yankees carried a 2-1 lead into the eighth with trusted relievers David Robertson and Aroldis Chapman set to shut the door. Unfortunately, Robertson coughed up the lead and forced the game into extra innings. Both bullpens matched zeroes until the 12th inning when Joe Mauer delivered a walk-off single against Ben Heller to win it. Meanwhile, in Boston, the Red Sox topped the Blue Jays 1-0 which shrunk the division lead to one.

Luis Severino started game three in hope to avoid a sweep, but no luck. Despite him pitching well, the bats were a no-show once again. This game also went into extra innings, level at two. Lance Lynn and the Twins’ bullpen stymied the Bronx Bombers and managed to outlast them by walking it off again, this time in the eleventh. Tommy Kahnle took the loss, though Adam Warren gave up the walk-off sacrifice fly hit by Byron Buxton. And just like that, the division lead was gone. Boston defeated Toronto, improving their record to 82-64, equal to the Yanks.

The very next day, with the Yankees not in action, the Sox won yet again to take a half-game lead in the East. Where does that leave the Yankees in the Wild Card? In the second spot, one game behind Minnesota and three games ahead of Seattle.

Another sweep, but this time the good kind

Home sweet home? The Yankees began its final homestand of the season against the Blue Jays and it didn’t look good for most of the game. Madison Bumgarner allowed five runs and was knocked out in the seventh inning with the Yankees behind 5-2. Finally, though, the bats came to life. Gary Sanchez’s eighth-inning homer (his 39th) cut the deficit to 5-4. Then, in the ninth, the Yankees rallied against Aaron Loup and Ryan Tepera. Aaron Judge capped it off with a game-winning two-run single to get the Yanks back into the win column. Boston won, Minnesota lost, and Seattle lost, meaning the Yankees division standing remained the same but its Wild Card position was a tad better. They were even with the Twins and now four games ahead of the Mariners.

The Yankees won game two thanks to a stellar pitching performance and just enough offense. Masahiro Tanaka blanked Toronto through seven innings and the Yankees tacked on four runs, leading to a 4-1 final score. Even better news was that the Yankees got help from their crosstown rivals, who beat their division rivals. The Mets 6-3 win over the Red Sox put the Yankees back on top in the AL East, by a half game.

Home sweep home. It wasn’t pretty, but the Yankees closed the week on a high note, defeating the Blue Jays 10-9. CC Sabathia started and allowed three runs in four innings, and the bullpen wasn’t much help either. Every reliever who entered after him gave up at least one run, which kept the Jays in the game. The Yankees never relinquished the lead, but the bullpen sure did come close. Good thing Gary Sanchez decided to belt three homers (up to 42 on the year, tying the single-season catcher record held by Javy Lopez) en route to a ten run game. Giancarlo Stanton hit his 50th bomb, while Miguel Andujar also delivered a long ball. Fortunately, in the ninth up one, Aroldis Chapman became the only Yankees pitcher not to allow a run in this game, notching the save. For the second straight day, the Mets did the Yankees a favor by winning against the Red Sox, bringing the Yankees’ division lead back to a game and a half.

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Real Universe Yankees: 91-58 (second place, 11.5 games behind Boston)

Alternate Universe Yankees: 85-64 (first place, 1.5 games ahead of Boston)

And here’s a snapshot of all things alternate universe Yankees:

 TL;DR

This week couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start. In a matter of a few days, the Yankees division lead was wiped away, which was two and a half games opening the week. The Twins swept the Yankees in three games, and the Red Sox were up a half-game in the division as the Yankees headed back home to New York. Fortunately, things turned on a dime back in the Bronx. The Yankees swept the Blue Jays while the Mets handled the Red Sox in order to put the Yankees back ahead in the division by a game and a half. Phew. On an individual note, Gary Sanchez had a three-homer game against the Blue Jays that gave him 42 on the season, tying him with Javy Lopez for the most home runs in a single season by a catcher. With a couple of weeks to play, he should have no issue setting the new record.

Photo credit: Kim Klement / USA Today

Happy travels in Oakland

As we’ve seen earlier in this season, the OOTP universe likes to schedule home-and-away doubleheaders located at the same stadium to accommodate rainouts. So, to start the series in Oakland, the Yankees were the home team for the afternoon game and the road team in the nightcap. The A’s are in the playoff hunt, just two games behind the Red Sox and Twins for a Wild Card spot (both Boston and Minnesota hold the two spots), meaning that they also aren’t far behind the Yankees. Pretty pivotal series for the Yankees to fend off another team on its heels. Oh, and here comes a weird doubleheader to make it even more interesting.

Bizarre home game notwithstanding, game one was a pretty simple and ho-hum victory thanks to solid pitching. Masahiro Tanaka pitched deep into the game, falling one out short of finishing seven frames while holding Oakland scoreless. Tanaka handed the ball to Tommy Kahnle with a 3-0 lead, which Kahnle maintained when he exited in the middle of the eighth. Kahnle did leave a couple of runners on, both of which came in to score against David Robertson. Brad Hand had to bail out Robertson, but the Yanks managed to escape and tack on an insurance run in the bottom half of the frame. In the ninth, Aroldis Chapman struck out the side to seal the 4-2 win.

The second game of the doubleheader was a piece of cake. CC Sabathia followed up Tanaka’s brilliance with a strong outing of his own. Over seven innings, CC allowed two runs and exited up 6-2. The offense did most of its damage in the fifth, scoring five runs, capped by a Gleyber Torres RBI triple. Dellin Betances relieved Sabathia and pitched two scoreless innings to finish the game. Giancarlo Stanton hit his 42nd homer to tack on an insurance run, making the final score 7-2. With the sweep of the doubleheader, the Yanks gained one game on the Red Sox, who split a doubleheader against the Braves.

Sonny Gray kept the line moving in game three. He allowed two runs in six and a third before giving way to the bullpen. The Yankees scored six runs, all but one coming via a homer. Both Aaron Judge (38, 39) and Giancarlo Stanton (43, 44) hit two homers apiece to lead the way. With a 6-2 lead, the Yankees took a chance by using Luis Cessa in the ninth in order to save the bullpen (Adam Warren covered the previous inning and two thirds), but Cessa struggled. He gave way to Chapman, who shut the door, though he did allow two of Cessa’s baserunners to score, making it a 6-4 final. Boston won again, so no ground was gained.

Get the brooms out! The Yankees took care of business in the fourth and final game of the series, winning by the same score as the previous day: 6-4. Aaron Judge blasted his 40th bomb and Miguel Andujar hit his 12th (he’s also hitting .289/.332/.485). Jordan Montgomery was decent, giving up three over five innings, but the bullpen was stellar. Jonathan Holder pitched two scoreless innings, David Robertson allowed one run in the eighth, and Tommy Kahnle closed it out to give the tired Chapman a breather. Boston won as well, taking down Atlanta to maintain pace with the Yankees.

Fending off Seattle

Before starting the next series in Seattle, the Yankees received a much deserved day off after playing four games in three days in Oakland. Thanks to the Yankees’ dominance against the A’s, the Mariners were able to ascend the standings and creep within two and a half games of a Wild Card spot (still held by both the Red Sox and Twins). Again, this makes it a pretty important series for the Yankees.

Maybe the off day threw off the team’s momentum because Seattle shut down the Yankees in the opener. The offense mustered just one unearned run against Erasmo Ramirez and nothing against the bullpen. Luis Severino was solid, but solid wasn’t enough without some run support. He allowed three runs in six and a third, and the Yanks eventually lost 4-1. In lockstep, Boston fell to the Astros, so no harm no foul.

Game two brought the return of Madison Bumgarner from the disabled list, finally. He was triumphant, throwing seven easy innings, with his only blemish a two-run homer hit by Kyle Seager in the first inning. MadBum was probably just shaking off the rust. The bats gave plenty of run support, scoring eight times in the 8-4 win. Giancarlo Stanton delivered two more dingers, bringing his season total up to 46. Only Matt Olson, with 47, has more. What’s better is that Boston lost again, giving the Yankees a two and a half game division lead.

The rubber game was a laugher and a great way to finish the week. The game was pretty much over after three innings because of a six-spot the offense hung on Andrew Moore. That inning included a two-run Greg Bird homer (his 20th) and a three-run Gary Sanchez homer (his 38th). Masahiro Tanaka threw seven shutout innings and Domingo German delivered two perfect frames to finish a 10-0 win. With Boston beating Houston, the division lead remained at two and a half to close the week.

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Real Universe Yankees: 89-54 (second place, 8.5 games behind Boston)

Alternate Universe Yankees: 82-61 (first place, 2.5 games ahead of Boston)

And here’s a snapshot of all things alternate universe Yankees:

TL;DR

There’s nothing like a west coast trip to turn things around, right? Apparently yes in this universe, though those road trips late in the season aren’t usually a welcome thing after a long year. The Yankees persevered to win six of seven games this week and gain two in the standings on Boston in the process. To start the week, the Yankees swept four games in Oakland while the offense 23 runs. Over the weekend, they took two of three from Seattle, with the middle game including Madison Bumgarner’s return. He was excellent in seven innings, which is promising for the final couple of weeks in order to hang on to the division.

Photo credit: Joe Nicholson / USA TODAY Sports

Worst team in baseball comes to the Bronx

At 45-86, the White Sox are the worst team in baseball in this universe, making it of the utmost importance for the Yankees to take care of business. In game one, they did just that. Starter Jordan Montgomery wasn’t great, but the offense and bullpen did an excellent job. The bats plated six runs against Lucas Giolito and the south siders’ bullpen, including home runs hit by Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, and Brett Gardner. On the mound, Montgomery just fell short of completing five innings, allowing two runs while striking out nine. The bullpen pitched four and a third clean frames, though Aroldis Chapman did have to bail out Jonathan Holder with runners on first and second and one out in the ninth. The final score: 6-2. Boston had an off day, so the win increased the Yanks’ division lead to one and a half games.

Luis Severino pitched game two of the series, and though his final line wasn’t good, he did give distance. He threw eight innings and allowed five runs (including three long balls). The offense had his back though, scoring nine runs on twelve hits and six walks. No homers were needed in this one, as instead a well-balanced approach toppled Chicago. All starters reached base, though Gary Sanchez was the only one who went hitless. Boston beat Miami to maintain the pace.

Game three went according to plan and the Yankees completed the sweep. Masahiro Tanaka was brilliant; he struck out eleven in eight innings while allowing just two runs. The offense had a home run derby, blasting seven dingers en route to a 13-2 win. The home run hitters: Aaron Judge (twice, up to 36 on the year), Gary Sanchez (also his 36th), Didi Gregorius (twice, 17 on the season), Miguel Andujar (his 10th), and Brett Gardner (his 11th). Once again, the Red Sox were victorious over the Marlins.

Detroit Downer

The win streak was upped to four after the series opener against the Tigers. Though CC Sabathia struggled once again, raising his season ERA to 6.47, the bullpen and offense bailed him out. Adam Warren, Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson, and Jonathan Holder threw five shutout frames and the offense scored ten times in the 10-6 win. No home runs for the offense, but they did get on base eighteen times against Daniel Norris and the Tigers’ bullpen. Of course, just like the Yankees had no problem against the White Sox to start the week, Boston had no issue beating Chicago to remain on the Yankees’ tails.

The week’s hot start came to an end in the second game of the Detroit series, despite having a 4-2 lead in the sixth. Sonny Gray, who was pitching well just like he has all season, gave up three runs in the inning, all with two outs. The Yankees clawed back to tie it on a Greg Bird solo homer in the eighth (his second of the game), but couldn’t keep momentum. David Robertson allowed two runs in the ninth inning, pushing the Tigers ahead 7-5. The offense had a last gasp in the ninth when Gary Sanchez led off with a double and Bird walked with two outs, but nothing came across. Fortunately, Boston was blown out by the White Sox.

Jordan Montgomery was left in a bit too long in Saturday’s affair. In trying to get him through the sixth inning with a quality start under his belt, the lefty gave up a three-run homer to Christin Stewart which put the Yankees behind 6-1. The offense — Greg Bird to be precise — valiantly tried to get back into this game. Bird hit a two-run homer in the sixth inning and did the same in the eighth, but without any help, the Yanks fell short 6-5. The good news: Boston lost again.

Luis Severino to the rescue and to salvage a split, right? Wrong. Sevy didn’t have it and was knocked out before he could finish the fifth frame. Though he struck out nine, he also allowed six runs on ten hits. The offense picked him up with a barrage of home runs, including one by Aaron Judge (37) and two by Giancarlo Stanton (40, 41), which helped give the Yankees a 7-6 lead entering the eighth inning. With the bullpen a bit worn out, Jonathan Holder was tasked with handling the inning before going to Aroldis Chapman. Holder only recorded one out and exited with runners on second and third. In came Chapman for a five out save, but he struggled too. James McCann drilled a two-run single to take an 8-7 lead, and the Tigers tacked on one more before it was all said and done to win 9-7. It was just Chapman’s second blown save in 33 opportunities. Over in Chicago, it was only a matter of time until the Red Sox would break through for a win. With a victory, they cut the Yankees division lead to a half-game (one in the loss column) to end the week.

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Real Universe Yankees: 86-51 (second place, 7.5 games behind Boston)

Alternate Universe Yankees: 76-60 (first place, 0.5 games ahead of Boston)

And here’s a snapshot of all things alternate universe Yankees:

TL;DR

It seems like every time this team is about to go on a run, things grind to a halt. That happened again this week, when the Yankees swept a three game series against the White Sox and were set up to do damage against a poor Tigers team over a four game weekend set. The first game of the Detroit series went well with a victory, but that’s where the good times came to an end. The Tigers won each of the last three games to close out the week. From a glass half full perspective: another week has gone by with the division lead in tact. Even though the Red Sox went 4-2, they split against the terrible White Sox club that the Yankees had just swept. Truth be told, it was a blown opportunity for them to get a leg up.

Nobody would have faulted the Yankees for cutting ties with Hicks after his first year in pinstripes. Of 353 major leaguers with 200 or more plate appearances in 2016, Hicks had the 26th-worst TAv at .220 in 2016. After years of mostly feeble hitting with the Twins, the season appeared to be a confirmation of who Hicks truly was as a hitter. Yet, the organization stuck with him despite over a thousand lackluster big league plate appearances. Finally, in the next season, the Yankees’ belief in Hicks paid off. He started off the 2017 campaign strongly and eventually nabbed the starting center fielder job from Jacoby Ellsbury. Injuries wore him down in the final couple of months of the year, but his final offensive line was still stellar. This season, Hicks has proven that last year was no aberration. With his strong performance now extended into 2018 while remaining healthy, there’s no question that Hicks has become another star on this roster.

To date this year, Hicks has accumulated approximately four WAR per Fangraphs’ and Baseball Reference’s version. Baseball Prospectus’s version only has Hicks at two, which is the outlier of the bunch. BP’s version views Hicks as a very bad defender this year, which doesn’t really pass the smell test considering Hicks’s reputation, past performance, and numbers elsewhere. It just so happens that since 2017, those two along with Charlie Blackmon are the only center fielders with more Fangraphs WAR than Hicks. Trout is obviously far and away the leader, at 14.9, but Hicks’s 7.4 is right on Blackmon’s tail (7.5) and not too far behind Cain (9.0). Per Baseball Reference’s version, Hicks is comfortably ahead of Blackmon (8.0 vs. 5.8) but still in back of Trout (14.9) and Cain (8.9).

Given Blackmon’s decline this season, it’s safe to say that Hicks is the third-best center fielder in baseball. In a world without an all-time great like Trout, Hicks might be in the top two. By season’s end, Hicks should end the year as a five-win player with more than 25 homers, a high on-base percentage, and his usual excellent defensive marks. Without a doubt, that makes him a star player. It’s incredible to see how far he’s come since his dud of a season in 2016.

Credit where credit’s due: first and foremost to Hicks for working to make the most of his ability, and two, to the Yankees front office for maintaining faith despite an ugly first year in the Bronx. Still just 28 and with another year before free agency, Hicks’s stardom will benefit the Yankees’ in playoff runs this season and next. It’ll also reward the center fielder with a very nice contract in free agency thereafter. It’s not easy to fill a premium position like the one Hicks plays, so when the winter of 2019 comes around, hopefully, the Steinbrenners open their checkbook.

Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports