Once upon a time, about a week ago, the New York Yankees had the third-highest chance of winning the World Series according to Baseball Prospectus. Now, they don’t even have the best shot in their own division.
Entering the week, the Toronto Blue Jays have the second-highest World Series odds at 11.5 percent.
Joe Girardi said it. Chris Young said it. Carlos Beltran said it. The early-August three-game set that New York just wrapped up with Toronto and the numbers back that up. The Yankees, still holding on to a marginal lead in the AL East, have a 52 percent chance at finishing ahead of the Blue Jays.
In short, Baseball Prospectus’ projections say the Yankees are still a safe bet to win the division but the Blue Jays are performing like they’re the best team in baseball.
Should you be worried about this? No.
The Yankees have scored just four runs in the last five games, but from a broader standpoint there’s not too much to shake a fist at. Since returning from the DL on July 8th, Jacoby Ellsbury’s batting average has been .191, and he hasn’t stolen a base. Since July 25th, Brett Gardner has seen his average dip from .300 to .285. Given Ellsbury’s 2014, and his start to 2015, it’s tough to see that continuing. And, Gardner’s absurdly low rate of chasing pitches outside the zone (20 percent) shows he’s maintained his steady eye at the plate.
It’s highly unlikely that those two will continue to slump through the remainder of the year. Couple that with the fact that the Yankees are an incredibly disciplined team, and there really isn’t too much to stress over when it comes to offense.
After all, that’s what everyone is worried about, right?
Let’s talk for a second about the Yankees’ pitching staff, which has been seen by many as their weakest link. The Blue Jays scored 26 runs in their four-game sweep of the Twins, and 23 in their previous four against the Royals. New York held them to just 10 in this three-game series. The best offense in baseball was stymied by Nathan Eovaldi on Saturday, and then held in check once again on Sunday by Masahiro Tanaka. If it weren’t for one bad pitch Saturday from Ivan Nova, who probably should not have been out on the mound to pitch to Justin Smoak in the first place, this narrative might be a bit different.
It’s important to remember the back end of the Yankees’ rotation is pitching extremely well right now, and that the bullpen has held strong as it has all season long. Lost in the Yankees’ 2-0 loss Sunday was Justin Wilson’s incredible performance in the seventh, entering with the bases loaded and no one out, and escaping unscathed. Also, it may seem like forever ago, but C.C. Sabathia was damn good in the Yankees’ last win which came on Thursday.
The Yankees calmed a Blue Jays offense that boasts a 207.7 VORP and the league’s best ISO at .182. Because of that, there’s no need to worry about this murderer’s row that’s been assembled in Toronto. The pitching held its own. As for the offense — I will continue to cite the plate discipline numbers up and down the lineup as a reason for having faith in a quick recovery from this slump. The Yankees are not easy outs.
There aren’t too many holes with the Yankees, but when you get swept at home by the hottest club in the big leagues, the ones that exist will be exposed. One dilemma that the team isn’t facing for once, though, is starting pitching.
(Photo: Gregory Fisher-USA Today Sports)