Sometimes when you really look in the mirror you can surprise yourself. Most people have an internal idea of what they are supposed to look like, but the reality doesn’t always mesh than that.
Just as one random example it’s possible that an unruly beard that looks like you’ve been a contestant on Naked and Afraid for weeks at a time sneaks up on you over time. Hypothetically, I’m not speaking from experience.
It seems that the New York Yankees are currently having an experience somewhat like this. The Yankees as constructed at the beginning of the year were not supposed to look like the Toronto Blue Jays, and yet as the Blue Jays breathe down their necks the hunter and the hunted are beginning to blend into one.
Going into the 2015 season it would be fair to assume that the New York Yankees would have a good–if potentially brittle–rotation that would combine with a dynamic bullpen to make pitching the strength of the team like it was in 2014. On the other hand, the Blue Jays were meant to have a rotation with more question marks than the Riddler’s suit and a bullpen with more holes than the plot of a Transformers movie.
As it turns out the results have been fairly similar.
| Team | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 8.35 | 2.65 | 1.06 | .298 | 3.95 | 3.77 |
| Blue Jays | 7.01 | 2.64 | 1.03 | .282 | 3.92 | 4.05 |
There’s no way around the strikeout gap, and resulting FIP disparity, here but the Blue Jays ERA is not entirely a fluke as they employ pitchers like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle that have an established track record of suppressing BABIP and out-pitching their peripherals.
Although ERA is an imperfect stat for a variety of reasons it does give us a rough idea of what’s already happened, and these two staffs have ultimately gotten similar results this year, even if the Yankees have done so in a way that is potentially more sustainable.
Perhaps more surprising than the similarities between the two teams’ pitching is the similarity in their hitting. The Blue Jays–even in the pre-Troy Tulowitzki era–looked like they would possess a strong offense, while the Yankees hit poorly in 2014 and were relying on an increasingly aged core and a complete wild card in Alex Rodriguez.
As it turns out, both offenses have been better than expected.
| Team | HR | BB% | K% | ISO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 146 | 8.6% | 18.8% | .179 | .259 | .328 | .438 | 111 |
| Blue Jays | 147 | 8.9% | 18.3% | .182 | .265 | .333 | .446 | 114 |
There is one major caveat to both of these sets of numbers. The Blue Jays are a very different–and undoubtedly better–team now than they were for most of the season. That’s what happens when you turn over 20 percent of your roster and add David Price and Troy Tulowitzki.
The Yankees on the other hand are largely fielding the team they started with although the rotation has definitely experience some major shuffling. Right now there is an argument to be made that the Blue Jays are the better team at this particular juncture, but even if they are they might not be better enough given the 4.5 games between the two in the standings.
All the Yankees have to do to win the AL East is keep Toronto at bay in the 13 games they play against them between now and the end of the season. That effort begins tonight at Yankee Stadium.
As long as they don’t get freaked out by playing a team that is sneakily exactly the same as them, they should be alright.
(Photo: Anthony Gruppuso-USA Today Sports)