(If you’ve enjoyed these and would like me to make “Overreactions and Underreactions” a weekly article, or even if you just want to say hi, please comment below)

Orioles

Overreaction: Stability

After losing to the Royals in the playoffs last year, the Orioles front office probably took a vacation together. Maybe they stayed local in Ocean City or Atlantic City, but it was late October so I’d put my money on the Caribbean. Rumor had it, GM Dan Duquette considered buying himself a one-way ticket to Toronto. Wherever they ended up, they must have had a great time because they forgot about their day jobs and spent the entire offseason there.

The only major league free agent contract they signed was a one-year, $2.25M deal to bring back fan-favorite and defensive stalwart, Delmon Young.  Whether through a lack of interest, effort, or available money in free agency, the Orioles entered 2015 counting on pretty much the same cast of characters they’ve had for a few years now: Tillman, Gonzalez, Jimenez, Norris, and Chen in the rotation; Britton, O’Day, Hunter, Matusz, and Gausman, still in the bullpen; Jones, Davis, Pearce, Machado, and Young in the lineup, with Wieters and Hardy due back soon.

Problem is, after this season, all that perceived roster stability gets thrown right out the door.  According to Spotrac, nine of those players I just mentioned are free agents in 2016 and a tenth, Alejandro de Aza, is the current leadoff hitter.  With that many key players hitting free agency in one year, the Orioles roster will look much different ten months from now.

Some teams might have splurged in free agency in an effort to go all in for a World Series this year, but the Orioles took a more methodical approach; I suspect they’ll use this first third of the season to feel things out.  If in June or July they are have a good-sized lead in the division they might try to add a big piece to help make a run come October.  They could also be twelve games out and put all ten of those impending free agents on eBay.  In the most likely scenario, they’ll be hanging around the top of a middling AL East and need to be both buyers and sellers, conscious of both the future and the present.  The Orioles entire roster, save for a few untouchables, will be made available and from this July through to next spring, the roster will undergo massive overhaul

Underreaction: Missing Pieces

I got a little long-winded with my O-verreaction so I’ll try to move things along quickly.  Right now the Orioles are not playing with a full deck, yet they still sit above .500 with a typical Orioles +2 run differential.  JJ Hardy and Matt Wieters are out right now and when healthy, these guys have been very productive Orioles.  Full returns from injury are no guarantee, especially with Wieters’ elbow problems, but if they can, moving Jimmy Paredes / Caleb Joseph and Everth Cabrera into a backup role will help the team tremendously.  PECOTA projects Hardy to hit about 10 TAv points better than Cabrera and Wieters to hit about 20 TAv points better than Paredes or Joseph.

Another missing piece right now is Kevin Gausman and as former BP writer Jonah Keri explains, Gausman may be the best pitcher on the Orioles.  Yet with five veteran starters on the staff, Buck Showalter currently has him stashed in the bullpen. He made 20 starts last year to the tune of a 3.44 FIP and at only 24 years of age, with a growing repertoire, Gausman is expected to improve on that figure this year.  Sooner rather than later, the Orioles will move a starting pitcher to get Gausman into the fold and the AL East should be on alert when that day comes.

Rays

Overreaction: The Sweep

Yes I’m writing for BP Bronx, but no I wouldn’t exactly call myself a Yankee fan…yet…the team is growing on me.  But I must say I was a little disappointed in the sweep for the simple fact that it ruined my 2-1 Yankees series prediction.  I’ll get over it, and the Yankees should give themselves a nice pat on the back, but I think it would be prudent to keep the boastful broomsticks tucked away in the closet for now.  The sweep felt great sure, and seeing A-Rod hit like it was 2007 again was amazing, but for the Rays, this isn’t even their final form.  The team they rolled out this weekend is not the team that will be taking the field come August.

As I laid out in my series preview last Friday, the Rays are ravaged by injuries right now.  Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly were two of the best three starters down the stretch for the Rays last year and this year PECOTA projects both to finish with ERA’s below 3.50 once they return.  Incumbent closer, Jake McGee and swingman Alex Colome are also on the shelf right now.  Matt Moore is recovering from Tommy John surgery and aims to return in the second half.  On offense, John Jaso may be near the end of his career as he’s dealing with severe concussion problems, but Nick Franklin and James Loney are both on the 15-day DL with oblique injuries.  The rotation especially, will look a lot different in a few months.  So take heed when bragging about beating Nate Karns and Matt Andriese and know that the next time the Yankees visit the Trop, the team wearing home whites could be much improved.

Underreaction: Bullpen Issues

In the series preview, I said ” The Rays perennially turn water into wine in the bullpen.”  And while this has been true for many years, that bullpen turned into spoiled milk this weekend.  I will grant you that a three game sample is small, but the issues looked very large.  As mentioned above, Jake McGee is injured and that does not help bullpen depth but the two trouble-spots were two key setup men: Grant Balfour and Ernesto Frieri.

After a few years scaring Bud Black, Mike Scioscia, and his fantasy owners with uncomfortable, high-stress saves, Ernesto Frieri had a year from hell in 2014.  His strikeout-rate dropped, his hit-rate rose, and with it came his ERA.  After posting a 7.34 ERA and blowing a few saves in a part-time closer role, the Angels traded him to the Pirates where he was just as ineffective the rest of the year.  He joined the Rays hoping to return to form and his appearance on Friday was no different than 2014.  So far this year fastball velocity is down about 2.5 mph from where it was in 2013 and he is hanging everything in sight.

Speaking of decreasing fastball velocity, let’s talk about Grant Balfour.  Balfour broke into the league in 2007, quickly establishing his ironic name and excellent fastball. His best year came in 2008, when he posted a 1.58 ERA in nearly 60 innings, throwing a remarkable 91% fastballs and averaging over 95 mph.  Since then, he’s steadily lost velocity, but maintained his success throwing more offspeed pitches each year.  His ERA hovered around 2.50 through 2013.  But in the little over one season since then, his velocity dropped over 4 mph and his ERA has risen up over 6.00.  At 37, it looks like the Australian’s career may be nearing an end and the Rays designated him for assignment on Saturday.  In the coming days we should all order a Foster’s at our favorite pub, and pour some out for one of the most awesome, exciting, and consistent relief pitchers in baseball over the last eight years.

Yankees

Overreaction: Chris Young, Starter

Chris Young has been hitting the cover off the ball and with Belt-less still struggling, fans might start requesting some Alphaville.  Still in shock from A-Rod’s 470-foot home run, we hardly noticed Chris Young’s grand slam off the aforementioned Grant Balfour flew an impressive 424 feet itself.  Chris Young has been a godsend since he arrived in the Bronx last September.  And I’d love to believe that this 100+PA sample of him since he started donning pinstripes is real, but let’s have a look…

Chris Young was always a decent hitter.  His poor average frustrated every manager he ever played for, but he always maintained a sharp eye and a powerful bat keeping his TAv above the mean.  Since he joined the Yankees, he’s kept up his vision and pop…but now he’s hitting for average too?  Yankee Chris Young is the Chris Young the Arizona Diamondbacks believed he would eventually turn into until they couldn’t anymore.  Yankee Chris Young is the guy I hoped would show up when I talked myself into drafting him every year in fantasy baseball.  These are superstar numbers!  Sadly, 102 plate appearances does not a superstar make and for the rest of those season, that average will in all likelihood fall back down towards his career clip of .234.

The important takeaway from his Yankee numbers are that Joe Girardi is deploying him properly.  At 31 years old he isn’t as spry or as excellent a fielder as he once was, two aspects of his game that could keep him in the lineup everyday.  He is a platoon outfielder who mashes lefties.  He’s had a career OPS of .822 against lefties and an OPS of .712 against righties.  So far this year he has a 1.343 OPS against lefties and while this figure is obviously inflated by the small sample, Joe Girardi should continue to take full advantage of Chris Young, platoon weapon.

Underreaction: A-Rod’s Hip Problems

Congratulations on making it this far, you may now collect your prize: this sexy guy.  Also Huzzah! Bet you thought A-Rod would be in overreactions, didn’t you? Nope! Instead I’m going to cheat a little bit and get retrospective.

Flash back about two years.  A-Rod spent the first few months on the disabled list with his second serious hip surgery in four years and a quad strain.  A-Rod and Brian Cashman fired shots at each other daily in the New York media.  They were bickering about the handling of hip rehab and then on August 5th, the day of his 2013 debut, Bud Selig announced A-Rod was to be suspended through the entire 2014 season.  He played out the remainder of 2013 under appeal, finally hanging up his spikes after a meek line of .244/.348/.423 over 44 games.

At that point I thought A-Rod was done, destined to keep cashing those checks while winning the “Worst Contract in Sports” award every year he remained employed.  From a production standpoint he wasn’t Ryan Howard-level awful in 2013, but a 1992 rap album befit his injury problems and he was about to take a year off of baseball at the tender age of 37.  The most exciting thing left for his career was the cage match brewing between him and Cashman upon his return.

Now here we are in 2015, A-Rod has turned heel, he’s being screwed out of awards for his on-field play, and at 39 years old he’s carrying the Yankees.  Sure he’s about to take out Willie Mays’ home run mark and bring a few tears to my eye, but I can’t get enough of A-Rod.  And the best part about his resurgence: it kinda makes sense.  It all goes back to the hip – I believed his hip problems were a sign of his deterioration and that all the surgery in the world couldn’t restore his ability to turn on the inside pitch.  But I think I was mistaken – that hip was a huge issue and a year off really helped it heal.  From what I’ve seen this year and data from before this past weekend, he’s turning on pitches better and from the early statcast data available, A-Rod is hitting the ball harder than any other hitter so far this year.

No, he won’t keep up this .364 BABIP.  No, he probably won’t win the MVP and even if he was deserving there’s no chance in hell Rob Manfred would give it to him.  But for now let’s enjoy this ride and hope his hip stays as healthy as it seems right now.

What are we making too big a deal of and what might be flying under our radar?  I’m calling it overreactions and underreactions.  We’ll go through the two divisional opponents the Yankees faced this week then take a closer look at the Yankees.

Blue Jays

Overreaction: Pitching Depth

On the surface the Blue Jays have the makings of a good, deep pitching staff.  R.A. Dickey has a Cy Young, Mark Buehrle is indestructible, and Norris, Hutchison, and Aaron Sanchez are all under 25 with immediate upside.  Per an article by Jeff Long on the main BP site, they have the longest tenured bullpen in the majors, while youngsters Roberto Osuna and Miguel Castro looked terrific during the opening week.  The rotation and bullpen both contain a balance of talent and stability common to many great pitching staffs.  From the first series alone you might think the Blue Jays will be a force to be reckoned with this year on the mound.

But before we send the 2015 AL East banner across the border, there are a few things worth mentioning.  First, the Yankees are not a very good offensive team and we shouldn’t judge any pitching staff based on the extent to which they can shut 37-year-old Carlos Beltrán and the like down.  The Orioles scored five, seven, and seven runs on them in their weekend series, a better sign of their true talent level.  Secondly, the Marcus Stroman injury will really hurt the team this year. Aaron Sanchez was moved to the rotation as his de facto replacement and PECOTA projects the dropoff to be significant. Stroman’s projected ERA of 3.35 easily trumps Sanchez’s projected ERA of 5.48 over a similar number of innings.  Moving Sanchez also took him out of consideration for being used in the closer role, which Brett Cecil relinquished to Castro in short order.

Underreaction: Lineup Depth

Nobody questions the idea that the top half of the Blue Jays lineup may be the best in the AL East, or even the entire AL.  On opening day, they started five all-stars at the top of the order: Jose Reyes, Russell Martin, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson.  Everyone knows that these guys will combine to be good and, if everyone stays healthy, they have the potential to be great.

Unsurprisingly, through one week of play, the Blue Jays lead the AL East in runs and are sixth in all of baseball.  The scary thing is that 1-5, the Blue Jays have been underperforming.  Bautista, Martin, and Donaldson are all hitting below .250.  The thorns in the side of the Yankees during the opening series weren’t Reyes and Bautista, they were Devon Travis and Kevin Pillar.  The bottom of the Blue Jays lineup looks to be improved significantly this year and that should scare teams. PECOTA projects Travis and Pillar to be around average offensive producers this year, a step up from the dead spots we used to see in the lineups of Blue Jays teams past. Dalton Pompey showed flashes as well this week, although John Gibbons would be wise to stop batting him in the two-hole.

Red Sox

Overreaction: Best Pitching in the AL East

Trust me, this sounded a lot better before the Yankees busted out the boomsticks on Sunday night so let’s pretend momentarily that that did not occur and we could restore that mindset we had Saturday afternoon.  The Yankees were fresh off two losses in a span of 18 hours and the Red Sox were leading the AL East at 4-1.  Through one turn of the rotation, the Red Sox had four different Cy Young candidates.  A direct quote in my series preview was “Kelly and Miley are…subpar” and yet the Yankees scratched together a mere three runs against them in games 1 and 2.  Sure they knocked around Alexi Ogando a bit while the game was out of hand, but chances are the dial on your panic meter was moving upwards.

Clay Buchholz did a lot to quell this panic Sunday night but it bears repeating, the Red Sox will not be winning because of their pitching this year.  In 2009, a week of pitching dominance against the Yankees and the Phillies would be a big deal, but in 2015, it doesn’t mean nearly as much.  Look for matchups with the Nationals and Orioles next to pump up those ERA’s and make fans a little uneasy up in Boston.

Underreaction: Regression towards the Mean

I’m sure you heard this only a million times this offseason, but the Red Sox were the first MLB team to ever go from last to first to last in a span of three seasons.  Needless to say, they’ve had extremely high variance results recently. 71 wins was probably a 10th percentile result for the Red Sox in 2014. A cause of that futility was a number of players who played well below expectations. Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Johnny Gomes, Daniel Nava, and Will Middlebrooks all had horrible seasons.

Yes, the biggest stories in Beantown this offseason were the signings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. And yes, replacing Gomes and Middlebrooks with these two will help the club tremendously. But I would argue more important to the success of the Red Sox in 2015, and something that caught my eye more this first week were improved performances from those who disappointed. Some like Pedroia and Napoli will be healthier than last year. Xander Bogaerts and Daniel Nava look a lot more comfortable at the plate. Clay Buchholz will probably end up somewhere between his first and second start.  But if the Red Sox can, and I suspect they will, get the 50th-70th percentile results from guys who had 20th percentile seasons last year, they will be a much improved club.

Yankees

Overreaction: Banjo Hitting

Yet another overreaction ruined by that Sunday night stomping.  Most of the concern through one week of Yankees baseball has to do with their ability or lack thereof to hit the baseball. Continuing with the Drew family tradition, poor play is causing people to call for Stephen’s head. Carlos Beltrán resembles a corpse so far, the bottom half of the lineup has looked punchless, and for a while on Friday night it seemed the Yankees were never going to score again. As my colleague Andrew Mearns pointed out, through 5 games, the Yankees had an abominable line of .193/.280/.342 with a 78 wRC+. They deserved every slur I’m sure fans were hurling their way.

But look what happened Sunday night; they broke out in a big way. And no I don’t expect them to bang out 16 hits and 14 runs every game but mediocrity? I think we can put up with that. For context last year the Padres had the worst offense in baseball and hit .226/.292/.342 with a 82 wRC+.  Beware of small sample size is an overused warning but for 5 or 6 games of baseball I feel it’s appropriate and the Yankees offensive production will probably end up looking a lot less like the first five games and a lot closer to last year’s line of .245/.307/.380 with a 92 wRC+.

Minor Overreactions

• Tanaka is hurt: We covered this last week.
• But they’re only 2-4: For those who point to the Yankees record of 2-4 and say boo, take a quick look at some of the other teams the same record: LAA, PIT, WSH, CLE, CHW.  And at the top of the league ATL (4-1), COL (4-2), and CIN (4-2) are all teams expected to compete for the worst record in the league.  One week doesn’t mean we should lose site of the bigger picture.
• Player X needs to go: Check out Andrew’s article where he used whipping boy Stephen Drew as an example.

Underreaction: Stupid Little Things

During the FOX broadcast of the Saturday afternoon game they showed at least a 30-second montage of Yankee defensive misplays and errors.  It would have been an impressive collection of screw-ups for an entire week of baseball, but the Yankees accomplished it in one day. Unfortunately I couldn’t find the video online to dub Yakety Sax over but I found a few clips for your amusement.

• A-Rod can’t catch
• Garrett Jones can’t catch
• “Stolen Base”

Of these, only the A-Rod one was recorded as an error, but the team finished with three errors altogether, so you know that was just a sampler. Defensive misplays, errors, pickoffs, caught stealings, these stupid little things are commonplace among this team right now. For a team that envisions fighting for a playoff spot, this needs to be cleaned up. Last Friday Nick Ashbourne wrote a GIF-tastic article about all the baserunning blunders the Yankees had through one series. Well I turned the game on Friday in the fourth inning and the first play I saw was Chase Headley getting picked off and I joked that he’ll have to make it a weekly feature. Later in the game, tied in the 17th inning, with one out Brett Gardner got picked off again.  There were 132 pickoffs in all of baseball last year and the Yankees got picked off twice in the same game, a game that was won in the 19th inning by one run.

In a vacuum one pickoff won’t be the difference between being in or out of the playoffs.  But if the baserunning and defense continues to be this collectively porous, it’s entirely possible the Yankees will or might have already lost a game or two because of these fixable issues.

Minor Underreactions

• CC’s return: In his first start back, CC didn’t get the results he deserved, but he pitched very well.  Hold some cautious optimism that this continues.
• Weak bench:  The difference between the Yankees and Red Sox benches were pretty stark as indicated by the starting lineups the day after playing 19 innings.  The Yankees don’t have much versatility, thump, or experience on their bench beyond Chris Young.