Red Sox Series Preview

I feel like over the past few years, the “Best Rivalry in Baseball” belt was stolen away from the Red Sox and Yankees.  My criteria for the belt:

1) Both teams must be in the same division. More games and the same goal: a division title.

2) Both teams must be good.  Nobody cares about two bad teams or when the outcome is predetermined.

3) The teams must hate eachother.  Drama, fighting, trash-talking, we love it all – it draws us in and forces even the most objective observers to pick sides.

The Yankees-Red Sox highlights of the last few years amount to Ryan Dempster throwing at soon-to-be-suspended A-Rod and Michael Pineda lathering himself in pine tar, twice.  Sorry, but that just doesn’t cut it for me.  I miss Pedro throwing down Don Zimmer, A-Rod feigning innocence after punching the ball out of Bronson Arroyo’s glove, the Boone homer, and those four days in October.  We were treated to an amazing decade of the best rivalry in baseball, but right now Yankees-Red Sox just doesn’t mean as much as it used to.

I trace the last day with the belt to September 28, 2011.   Final day of the season – game 162.  That Wednesday evening, with the division clinched, the Yankees found themselves up six runs on the Rays in the sixth inning when Joe Girardi looked up at the Tropicana Field scoreboard.  He noticed the Orioles were beating the Red Sox and knew a Red Sox loss coupled with a Rays win meant the Red Sox, who had held a 9-game lead in the wild card race in early September, would be knocked out of the playoffs.  The Yankees threw the game blew the six-run lead, then in extra innings the Rays walked off into the playoffs, completing one of the greatest nights in baseball history  and igniting the dumpster fire that was the 2011 Boston Red Sox offseason.

These might be high hopes this year but I want that rivalry back – baseball is better off when every Yankees – Red Sox game is must-see TV.  The season series starts this weekend in New York and here’s to hoping it starts out on the right foot.

(If you were wondering the current holders of the Belt are the Giants and Dodgers. Yes, I’m biased as a Giants fan but it fits all the criteria and if you don’t wish an umpire hadn’t gotten in the way of this then I calmly request you stop reading.)

Note: all stats from 2014 unless otherwise mentioned

At the Plate

Yankees Lineup

So far, the Yankees lineup has been about as strong as I assume a Fruity Fairy cocktail is.  But hey at least they aren’t the one-run Twins!  They aren’t as feeble as they’ve looked through three games, but don’t expect the Yankees to win many games 10-8 this year.  And with the lineup the Red Sox bought themselves this offseason, New York will need to hit more to keep pace in the series.

X-Factor: Brian McCann

In Wade Miley and Joe Kelly, the Red Sox are throwing two pitchers who have a >50% ground-ball rate and rely on double plays to get them out of the jams their high WHIPs create.  McCann can be susceptible to a double play, bouncing into 16 of them last year.  If the batters ahead of them are doing their job to get on base, he’ll need to keep the ball in the air, on a line, or down for a bunt to avoid those rally-killing double plays.

Yankees Bench

With a few switch hitters and platoons at a few positions, the Yankees have the ability to get matchup advantages whenever they want.  Against right-handed pitchers they start eight lefties, and against left-hander Daniel Norris on Thursday they started seven righties.  The Yankees will see a pretty even mix of both this series as the Red Sox holster three left-handed relievers in the bullpen and Wade Miley as a starter.  If Girardi sees an opportunity to create a favorable matchup late, pinch-hitting could be an X-factor for the Yankees this series.

Red Sox Scheduled Starters

When all the moving and shaking was over this offseason, the Red Sox found themselves with a bunch of 3/4-starters.  Of Porcello, Miley, Bucholz, Masterson, and Kelly, Clay Buchholz was the only one who has really sniffed being an ace and in the larger context of his career that 2013 season looks like an outlier.  But the Red Sox are not built to win with their rotation and it’s entirely possible neither Kelly or Miley is in the rotation come August.  As an avid follower of the NL and NL West, Kelly and Miley are…subpar.  Both have a tendency to rack up a pitch count so having good at bats the first time through the order will be key for the Yankees.  Clay Buchholz threw great in his first start, but that was against the Phillies who…well…look at their lineup if you’re having a bad day.  I’m anxious to see whether he can put together another quality outing against a major league team.  If he can, Red Sox nation will start believing 2013 Buchholz wasn’t only just a dream.

Red Sox Bullpen

As mentioned earlier one of the strengths of the Red Sox bullpen is that they have a near-even mix of righties and lefties.  At the back of the bullpen though, things could become unsettled if the Yankees press the right buttons.  Mujica played the part of closer in St. Louis before they realized they had Trevor Rosenthal but with the injury to Koji Uehara, he will be back in the saddle for the near future.  Tazawa has been reliable and until last year, Breslow had been as well.  The flaws of the bullpen mirror the flaws of the rotation; lack of top flight talent and a lot of guys who would be better off pitching in the 6th or 7th inning rather than the 8th or 9th.

What I’ll be looking for:

The Yankees have struggled to find their niche.  Hutchison throws hard, R.A. Dickey slings poo, and they were baffled by the young lefty Daniel Norris for a while.  In this series they see a new brand of pitcher, and they see it three times in a row.  Miley, Kelly, and Buchholz all throw a similar mix of pitches at pretty similar velocities (Kelly throws his fastball a little harder than the others).  We haven’t seen them face one yet but if the Yankees like hitting off a low-90’s fastball with a bit of sink, the bats could wake up and stay awake for the whole series.

 In the Field

Yankees Scheduled Starters

I’m a huge fan of Eovaldi and can’t wait to see him in pinstripes.  No matter the results, he’s a fun pitcher to watch.  He has a huge fastball that can either make hitters look silly or get hit a long way.  He reminds me a lot of young Andrew Cashner who also throws hard but doesn’t rack up as many strikeouts as you’d expect.  Warren won the fifth spot in the rotation with a good spring, beating out perennial swingman Esmil Rogers and Saturday will be his fourth-ever big league start.  He’s trying to become one of the rare guys to transition from relief to the rotation rather than vice versa.  And as for Tanaka, if you haven’t already, I invite you to check out my article on him from earlier this week.  He pitched well at times on opening day but would do well to avoid the big inning this Sunday.

Yankees Bullpen

I liken a closer-by-committee situation to an open marriage.  Do either ever work?  To quote the world’s first analrapist, Dr. Tobias Fünke, “No it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but … But it might work for us.”  It might work for us yet! I am 100% in on the closer by committee!  I want the 2015 Yankees to be the exception to every other closer-by-committee to ever exist.  Girardi has two talented closer-types and right now he’s not trying to force them to conform to be a setup man or closer, he’s planning to turn the two into a two-headed closing juggernaut and it’s great.  In the late innings with a lead and a lot of lefties due up, go to Miller, if it’s all righties, go to Betances.  It’s not that hard, other managers!  First things first, let’s focus on getting to the late innings with a lead.  That should be step one.  I’ll also note that like the Red Sox, the Yankees bullpen employs three lefties.  The Red Sox lineup though is pretty righty-heavy so they likely won’t be called upon solely to deal with left-handed hitters.  For future series though this many lefites could be a boon in the late innings.

Red Sox Lineup

Moses’ lineup.  Supposed to bring the Red Sox to the promised land.  This offseason they acquired every hitter they could think of and decided to figure out the rest of their team later.  Not a bad idea because teams with great offenses tend to do pretty well during the regular season and there will be pitching available at the deadline.  I think all teams should be worried about facing this lineup; if everyone hits up to expectations or potential this will be top-tier offense all year long.  It’s not only a talented lineup, it’s a diverse lineup.  Betts provides speed, Pedroia and Sandoval will put the ball in play, Hanley, Papi, and Napoli provide most of the pop and their 7-9 hitters are better than most other 7-9 hitters.

X-Factor: Xander Bogaerts

Obviously his name starts with X so there’s that.  But he could be on the verge of a breakout season and if he is getting on base from the 9-hole the lineup can seem endless.  Get him out so there aren’t men on base when the order flips.

Red Sox Bench

Allen Craig is a mystery.  He had a great few years where he showed legitimate power and the Cardinals signed him to an extension.  The next year he got by with diminished power due to a huge season with RISP making people think he was inherently clutch.  Last year he lost that RISP magic and had an all-around horrible year.  This year we might definitively be able to answer “Who is Allen Craig?”  He’s likely their go-to right handed pinch-hitter for now while Nava should come off the bench from the left side.  Holt is a super-utility guy and Sandy Leon sounds more like the name of a beach than a baseball player to me.

What I’ll be looking for:

Cluster Luck.  The Red Sox are going to get hits, that’s unavoidable — there’s talent up and down their lineup.  When those hits come and how much they hurt will be the mitigating factor for Yankees pitchers.  If they scatter 10 singles and doubles evenly over 9 innings, the Yankees will have a shot.  If they start to string those hits together and start putting crooked numbers up, it could be a long series.

Prediction

Boston wins series 2-1.  Too much hitting for the Yankees to keep up with.  I think the Yankees tee off on Joe Kelly on Saturday but the Red Sox hit too much for them the rest of the series.  Also I miss you Pablo.  We will always love you in SF.