This past Thursday morning, I broke one of my own unwritten rules: avoiding sports talk radio shows at all times. Not to disparage an industry that’s far more established and successful than I am, but I nauseate at the general lack of logic and civility. I find it exasperating that the person who yells the loudest wins the argument.

But that morning, I had left the radio on in my car from listening to the Yankees the night before. They had just wrapped up their 17th win in 18 games. It was yet another exciting comeback win thanks to Brett Gardner’s triple and Aaron Judge’s home run in the eighth inning. I decided to leave the radio on while I drove my daughter to school. With the team playing so well, there’s little to complain about. How bad could it be?

It was a huge mistake. The show devoted the entire segment to bashing Gary Sanchez. “He’s too lazy to ever be a good catcher!” “He doesn’t care about his defense at all!” “Austin Romine should be starting AT LEAST half the games, and they should trade this bum!” “He misses half the pitches! They smack the umpire in the face!”

My morning was ruined. Shock and disillusionment replaced any positive feelings from the night before. Never mind the larger question of whether Yankee fans can ever truly be happy. Is this what the fanbase really thinks of Gary Sanchez? Was I mistaken that The Kraken is a beloved member of their exciting young core?

Last June, on the occasion of Sanchez’ 100th career game, I created a poll at Banished to the Pen to determine where Sanchez ranks in the current hierarchy of catchers. He was coming off a dominant final two months of 2016 in which he impressed enough to finish second in Rookie of the Year voting. Following a stint on the disabled list at the beginning of 2017, he continued to punish the American League. The idea was a thought experiment to see how much credibility a player can generate after only 100 games.

Now I’d like to recreate that experiment for a different reason. Assuming that most readers of BP Bronx are Yankee fans, I’d like to find out just how highly the fanbase rates Sanchez. After a few days, I’ll present the poll results here at BP Bronx.

Click here to vote!

Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees are on a certifiable hot streak. 15 of the last 16 games have ended with John Sterling belting out, “THEEEEEEE YANKEES WIN!” They’ve have gotten fantastic pitching from young stars (Luis Severino), old vets (CC Sabathia), and rookies (Domingo German, wow!). There’s been clutch hitting from nearly everyone in the lineup, with a new hero leading the team to victory each day.

There have been a few blowouts, such as the 14-1 obliteration of Minnesota on April 23, and the 11-1 bludgeoning in Anaheim on April 28. But the hallmark of the Yankees’ unbelievable run has been late-inning drama. Incredibly, 6 of the 15 wins featured the go-ahead run in the ninth inning or later. It’s almost too many fairy tale endings to keep track of. Here is a recap of the 5 biggest hits of the hot streak by WPA.

5) May 6: Neil Walker RBI Double, 36% WPA

The aforementioned walk-off bomb from #GleyberGood wasn’t the biggest hit of the game. In fact, it wasn’t even the biggest hit of the inning! Trailing 4-3 entering the bottom of the ninth, Aaron Hicks starting things off with a double. Neil Walker followed with another line drive double to right field, tying the score. Walker’s hit was worth 36% WPA, increasing the Yankee odds of winning from 46% to 82%. After a groundout by Miguel Andujar and an intentional walk to Giancarlo Stanton, Torres increased the win expectancy from 71% to 100% with his moonshot to right-center.

4) May 4: Miguel Andujar Game-Winning Single, 36% WPA

The opening match of the Cleveland series was an emotional whirlwind. The Yankee bullpen blew a 5-0 lead in the top of the 8th inning, thanks to a three-run smash by Bradley Zimmer. In the bottom of the frame, the Yankees regained the lead with a two-out, bases loaded walk by Aaron Judge. However, Aroldis Chapman failed to shut the door, yielding a single to Yan Gomes, a HBP, and two wild pitches. With the score tied at 6 in the bottom of the ninth, Stanton led off with a double. Gary Sanchez flew out to right field and Hicks grounded out to the right side, advancing Stanton to third. Walker walked (which is a fun phrase to type), then took second on defensive indifference. That brought up Andujar, who slapped one into right field on a 1-2 count, scoring Stanton to win the game. The base hit was worth 36% WPA, but perhaps it should be penalized because Didi Gregorius was kicked in the head during the celebration. With all these dramatic wins, you’d think the team would know how to celebrate more safely.

3) April 27: Didi Gregorius 10th Inning Home Run, 38% WPA

In the first game of the road trip, the Yankees trailed the Angels 3-2 in the 9th inning. Brett Gardner hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game with the bases loaded and one out. David Robertson pitched a flawless bottom of the ninth, sending the game to extra innings. With one out in the 10th, Gregorius did this:

The blast increased the Yankees’ chances of winning from 44% to 82%. Chapman nailed down the victory in the bottom of the inning, 4-3 Yankees.

2) May 3: Gleyber Torres Two-Run Single, 39% WPA

Gleyber does make the cut after all! Astros closer Ken Giles was out of commission after getting blown up the day before (and perhaps nursing a bruised jaw), so Will Harris took on the Yankees in the top of the ninth with a 5-3 lead. He surrendered a walk to Walker (there it is again!) and singles to Andujar and Hicks to load the bases with no outs. Brad Peacock came in to face Torres, who lined a single to left to tie the game. Two batters later, Hicks scored on a groundout to give the Yankees the lead, which Chapman preserved for a victory. The Torres single was the big play, of course, improving the Yankees’ win expectancy from 42% to 81%.

1) April 26: UNLEASH THE KRAKEN, 66% WPA

When Sanchez stepped to bat in the bottom of the ninth, the Yankees had just a 34% chance of beating the Twins. They were trailing 3-1 with two men on base and no outs. His blast traveled 381 feet and miraculously stayed inside the foul pole. Everybody goes home, 4-3 Yankees. A WPA event of 30% or higher is rare. A 66% WPA event can almost exclusively be a come-from-behind, walk-off winner like Gary’s. Much like the Yankees’ entire hot streak, it should be savored and remembered.

Photo Credit: Adam Hunger / USA TODAY Sports

We already know that the Yankees lineup is great and is going to score plenty of runs this season. Over the course of the 162 game schedule, how the lineup is deployed won’t make a significantly affect the number of runs the offense produces. Does that mean rookie manager Aaron Boone should just pick names out of a hat, Joe Maddon style, and run with it? Of course not. To date, Boone has run out a sensible lineup that has already shown its potency. Yet, if I may, I want to nitpick how he’s ordered the middle of the lineup thus far (Derek, you’re really about to step in it. Are you sure you want to keep going?).

Boone has batted Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, and Gary Sanchez in slots two through five in all games except opening day (vs. a lefty) and Sunday (Sanchez had the day off). It’s evident that the rookie manager’s plan is to split up the three right-handed sluggers with one lefty, whether it’s Gregorius or Greg Bird upon the latter’s return. It’s not some egregious mistake that Boone should be vilified for, because after all, Gregorius is a pretty good hitter in his own right. Yet, it’s not the optimal two through five (Oh boy).

On Saturday, Sanchez was left in the batters’ box twice as Gregorius failed to deliver with runners in scoring position and two outs. In the first inning, Gregorius grounded out following a two-out double by Stanton. The Yankees were down 1-0 at the time. Later, in the eighth with the game tied at 3, Gregorius came to the plate with Stanton on first and two outs. He popped out on the first pitch he saw. In both of those instances, Sanchez should have been the hitter. Instead, he was left watching. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that Sanchez would have come through in those spots, but there’s no question he’s a superior hitter to Gregorius. And of course, Didi is going to come through in those situations at times this year (hey, dumb writer of this post, look what Didi did yesterday!). It just so happens that he didn’t on Saturday, which made the lineup order issue stand out. None of this should be construed as a knock on Didi! He’s developed into a very good hitter himself, but he’s not on the same level as Sanchez.

I also think that batting Gregorius behind Stanton is going to cost Stanton a lot of pitches to hit. Sunday’s game is a great example of this even though Sanchez wasn’t in the lineup. Toronto’s pitchers walked Stanton three times and passed the baton to Gregorius. On days that Sanchez is starting, that can still happen with Gregorius hitting cleanup. Think about it this way: with Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez all in a row, it’s next to impossible to pitch around any of them. Do that to Judge or Stanton, and you have Sanchez looming. The only way you can really pitch around Sanchez is if you manage to retire Judge and/or Stanton before him, which is no easy task.

The Book says that the difference between a standard lineup and an optimal lineup can be up to 15 runs in a season. Frankly, the Yankees lineup is already pretty close to optimal per The Book‘s standards for many reasons, particularly because Judge hits second. So, the difference between Sanchez and Gregorius flipping lineup slots is a nowhere near that 15 run differential. At most, it might be a handful of runs over the season, which falls short of equating to an extra win. Nonetheless, it’s frustrating to see Sanchez lose opportunities with men on base.

Given what we know about the full season implications of a batting order, perhaps I’m making too much of where Sanchez and Gregorius fit in the lineup (yes, you are you dunce). I’m well aware that this offense is going to be near the top of the league, if not at the top, in runs scored regardless of where Boone stacks the bats. Still, I want more. I want to see opposing pitchers have to face Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez in order. There’s no need to give them a “break”, even though this “break” involves a very good hitter. For the time being, it appears that Boone is steadfast with his current lineup construction. It shouldn’t be too harmful, but there will still be room for improvement as long as he stays the course.

Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Quite simply, they performed exactly as expected. Judge had a pretty good day. Sanchez added just the one RBI double. Stanton carried the load and was the indisputable offensive star of the game. Rarely will all three of them be outstanding at the same time, but with three hitters as gifted as they are, one of them will probably do something special on any given night. Sometimes, the simple act of getting on base is special enough. In 2017, their OBP were as follows:

Each is pretty impressive individually, but collectively they become insurmountable. The opposing pitcher has a greater than 50% chance of getting any one of them out, but when they bat consecutively, the pitcher has to retire all three. The chances of getting past them completely unscathed are only 23.6%. Roughly 3 out of 4 times, at least one of them will get on base.

That’s daunting enough as is, but a starting pitcher usually has to get through the batting order more than once. The pitcher has just a 5.6% chance of facing Judge/Stanton/Sanchez twice and recording 6 outs. If the pitcher is having a particularly good day, he might have to face them a third time. In that case, he’s only got a 1.3% chance of retiring them three times each!

Against a right-handed starter, manager Aaron Boone will probably split them up in the lineup. However, Opening Day was a special case. J. A. Happ, the Blue Jays starting pitcher, is a lefty. Assuming the trio will bat consecutively mostly against lefties, we should use their OBP vs. LHP to determine their odds of success:

As expected, all of them were even better against southpaws last season. Judge and Sanchez saw a minor jump in OBP, but Stanton improved 76 points!

Using their OBP vs. LHP, the opposing pitcher has a 20.0% chance of getting them all out one time, a 4.0% chance of doing it twice, and just a 0.8% chance of getting them to go 0-9!

Out of the 162 games the Yankees will play in any given season, they’ll face a lefty starting pitcher probably 30-40 times. Those pitchers will each have less than 1/100 odds of retiring the side against Judge/Stanton/Sanchez three times in a game. At that rate, it might happen just once between now and the end of the 2020 season. Judge and Sanchez won’t become free agents until at least 2023 and Stanton’s contract is guaranteed through 2027. Barring trades or injuries, opposing LHP will have plenty more chances to face them, but their odds of success are insanely long.

Photo credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

One thing that’s been the subject of much discussion is velocity. Major League Baseball has switched from PITCHf/x to Trackman for in-stadium velocity readings, returning slightly higher numbers (around 1 mph).

The reason this switch has created so much buzz early on is best attributed to two factors:

First, we love overreacting to small sample sizes. The New York Post published a column after the Yankees’ first loss of the season on the possibility that the team’s ‘terrible’ start could out of hand in a hurry. That was after 0.617% of the season elapsed. One game. When our sample of action isn’t big enough to find interesting plots and sub-plots around the league, we analyze and over analyze the juicier bits we have.

Second, it has to do with the wave of statistics encompassing the game of baseball in this era. We drool for data early in the season so we can compare it to past years and project the other 161 games with a feverish hope for accuracy. I’m not afraid to admit I function as a member of those baseball fanatics.

Velocity is the quickest metric to stabilize, meaning it’s the piece of information we can hastily use to gain valuable insight. However, if we’re using incorrect, or merely different data, we’ll be about as successful as Aaron Judge trying to fit into a child’s highchair. 

So let’s see how velocity has found itself sitting with our top three starters this week against the Rays. Keep in mind, we’re not working with information that we have 100% consensus on at the moment, but BrooksBaseball, according multiple articles including this one from Fangraphs, seems to be less if at all impacted by the Trackman switch (notice “From 55ft” on the y-axis of the graphs, this relates to the switch in velocity readings now out of the hand as opposed to closer to the plate). 

Masahiro Tanaka

The first game of the season gets substantial television ratings, regardless of who is playing. Unfortunately, that meant a lot of the country got to see the worst of Tanaka. 67 pitches over 2 2/3 innings, yet even with what we’d normally consider half an outing’s worth of data, we can see how relatively similar Tanaka’s velocity is to the 2016 season. This is a good visualization of velocity stabilizing very quickly. 

Can we infer anything from these numbers? Seeing as the Opening Day start consisted of Tanaka trying, and failing to establish his sinker early in counts, I’m fine with believing in a jump of one mph on his primary pitch. He threw his sinker 38 percent of the time on Opening Day and saw a swinging strike percentage just below 10 percent, which would eclipse the highest swinging strike percentage he had, on average, for any one month last season. 

I have to admit, I’m proud of myself for actually saying something positive about Tanaka’s first start. It was after all, a glorified Spring Training outing, where he tried and failed to command his main pitch. In the process, omitting the opportunity to gain a feel for the depth of his repertoire. 

Tanaka’s start Saturday against the Orioles compared to opening day didn’t really vary much in the result. Lack of command and an inability to establish his sinker, setting up his split and secondary offerings. As the season progresses we’ll have a more data to work with regarding his peripherals and are bound to revisit this open case in due time.

CC Sabathia

Our ageless wonder seems more and more like Bartolo Colon as every outing goes by. Eating innings and spotting pitches, but the main difference is the lack of consistent entertainment with his bat. 

Sabathia has some noticeable upticks in his sinker and cutter velocity, both pitches he threw a combined ~60% of the time  in his start Tuesday. He also substantially limited his changeup used compared to last season, making his slider the even more predominant off speed offering. 

While the results were good through Sabathia’s five innings of clean baseball, it’s always tough to look at a pitcher like Pineda who only generated four swinging strikes on the 85 pitches he threw, and expect this to be the norm. A velocity uptick of any kind seems to only be a positive for a pitcher of Sabathia’s caliber, and if he can generate another batch of 165+ innings with a sub 4 ERA (like he did last year), we should be more than thrilled considering what the pessimistic projections were ballparking.  

Michael Pineda

The toughest thing not to overreact to are the consistencies that we hope can change. Your mind goes through confirmation bias during the spring, seeing and hearing about a Pineda changeup, only to observe very little difference in his pitch selection.

It’s simple. Pineda doesn’t pitch to his peripherals, and after a rough start Wednesday in Tropicana, it’s ever so easy to rolls your eyes and feel a bit of deja vu.

But again, let’s caution our brevity in decision making. Pineda has nearly identical velocity from last year to this year among any of the three starters I highlight here. Even with the changeup work over the Spring, as we’ll always refer back to come the regular season, it really means nothing if he doesn’t have the confidence to throw it in game. 

There is some very humorous logic with Pineda and his expectations. We all want him to be consistent. Girardi even wants him to be consistent. But what kind of consistency can we reasonably expect? If he’s consistently good, with a strikeout percentage north of 25 percent, he’s an ace caliber pitcher. At this point, that’s an outcome we can’t factor in meaningful odds for. 

What we’re really asking for is toned down consistency. Fewer strikeouts, better command, fewer homers, and fewer blow up starts. That’s not nearly as attractive as the imaginable ceiling on a pitcher with this level of bat missing ability, but it’s the reality. 

Pienda’s results are oddly consistent with last year, yet still bring increasing levels of disappointment. The velocity looks fine, and hopes can once again change colors quickly with a few eight-plus strikeout outings. What’s the definition of insanity again? Doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results. 

Off into the Sunset…

So what’s the moral of the story with all this velocity talk?

If everybody looks like they’re throwing a few miles per hour harder than they were at the end of 2016, there may be an issue with the data as a whole. As the old adage goes, if it looks like a duck, smells like a duck, and quacks like a duck. It’s probably a duck. 

We look at velocity early over other metrics because of this stabilization. It gives us concrete evidence of any alarming or encouraging change. This is why so many have been perplexed early in the season by the full switch to Trackman and the adjustment of velocity measurement. We simply want one of the most widely referenced stats for a pitcher to be consistent, without having to dive in and understand the decision to start tracking pitches at a different point on their path to home plate.

With Tanaka, Sabathia and Pineda, I strongly believe in focusing on stats like velocity early and gradually stitching in the underlying peripherals (swinging strike %, hard contact %, zone %, etc.). If velocity looks relatively stable, then we can bring in the fun stuff to intricately pick away at what may have improved or faded.

It may be very ineffective to tell anybody prone to overreacting not to overreact, but that’s exactly what I’m trying to do. Maybe we can also tell the Post to ‘chill’ with the talk of a disastrous start lingering, even with the injury concerns that seems to pour in every game.

Or at least we can wait a few more starts for the ‘disastrous’ metric to stabilize. 

At the plate, Gary Sanchez displays a confident demeanor more indicative of a veteran coal miner than a rookie player in the big leagues. Even through a pitcher’s full windup, he rests his tool of destruction, his bat, on his shoulder like a pickax, only raising it at the last possible second to exert his will on some American League spot-starter. The vengeance and frequency with which he jettisons baseballs into alternate planes of reality is, in a word, striking, suggesting a ruthless revenge for some generations-long grudge Sanchez holds against the pitcher, the crowd, Rawlings, the ball itself and/or the very idea of baseball as a sport.

Even more than that, however, what sticks out in a Sanchez at-bat, particularly when he hits a homer, is the immediacy. Though his average batted ball exit speed is currently ninth in the league, it isn’t at the level of, say, Giancarlo Stanton. Yet the ball seems to jump off Sanchez’s bat with a unique fury. Along with his underrated-by-comparison defense behind the plate, Gary Sanchez’s mercury-hot season makes him the best candidate for AL Rookie of the Year.

To be frank, subjective awards, particularly for first-year players in any sport, are mostly as useless as college ranking systems and Yelp reviews. What we should be asking is if the AL ROY is worthy of Gary Sanchez, rather than vice versa. Because criteria can vary so wildly from person to person, the “one man’s trash is another man’s treasure” trope takes on more of an air of “one man’s bored afterthought is another man’s staggering paradigm shift.” Alas, awards continue on ceaselessly against the future, unprepared to deal with Gary Sanchez though they might be.

The common argument against Sanchez as a Rookie of the Year candidate is that he simply hasn’t played enough games, having only been called up for good in August, after the Yankees had all but scuttled their season with eyes toward the future. Ken Davidoff of The New York Post, for example, suggests that “The award goes to Rookie of the YEAR. Not ‘Most Likely to Wind Up in Cooperstown.’ Best player for the defined period, not best potential for the future.”

Davidoff has a point insofar as the award must go to the player who has achieved the most success rather than the player who may achieve the most success, though his train of logic goes AWOL when he capitalizes YEAR as “the defined period” measuring eligibility. By that logic, no player is eligible, because the nature of the league’s schedule prevented Michael Fulmer from playing a regular season game in January.

The BBWAA, it should be noted, has no set minimum requirements for the Rookie of the Year, only that, per MLB, a player cannot have accumulated more than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster in any previous season. Of course, as has been regularly cited recently, there is some precedent for something like this: Willie McCovey hit 13 home runs and added 38 RBIs on .354 from the plate in 52 games in 1959, snagging the NL hardware. Why not El Gary?

Sanchez’s flash in the pan has thus far been a full-on nuclear reaction when set against the average rookie’s scrambled eggs. As the Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg noted, is closest competitor for the AL Rookie of the Year Award, Detroit’s Fulmer, has cooled off after an excellent start, partly as a result of the Tigers’ expanded and dubiously fluid pitching rotation.  Despite Fulmer’s sublime 3.03 ERA, Sanchez’s WAR is 3.2, compared with Fulmer’s 2.6. Even Cleveland’s Tyler Naquin, another erstwhile ROY candidate, has seen his production slide recently, not that it was much direct competition with Sanchez. The latter owns a wRC+ a full 63 points higher than Naquin, his next-closest rival among rookies.

Of gods and men, Gary Sanchez has annihilated expectation, to the point past which anyone was prepared. What was supposed to be a time purely for prospects to gain big league experience has instead become a nightly showcase for unprecedented talent in the case of the 23-year-old Dominican. Whether our constantly reformed dreams as fans meet his rapidly shifting career aspirations will be seen, but as of now, it is fair only to dissect actual results. For Gary Sanchez, efficient production deserves just reward. Fortunately, there is one that fits the bill.

Photo: Kim Klement / USA Today Sports

Top Performers

Scranton: Jake Cave (10-20, 6 R, HR, 2 2B, 2 3B)- Cave has an insane .362/.375/.723 batting line (.389 TAv) in his first 48 PA since the promotion to Triple-A. He’s likely vaulted over the competition and put himself first in line for a call up.

Trenton: Mark Payton (9-26, 5 R, 2 2B, 4 RBI) The 24-year-old former seventh round pick is hitting .296/.367/.444 (.295 TAv) in 31 PA since his promotion to Double-A this season.

Tampa: Vicente Campos (7 IP, 0 ER, 4 K)- Campos has allowed two earned runs and struck out 18 in his last three starts, 19 1/3 innings.  

Charleston: Kyle Holder- (9-23, 5 R, 2 2B) Holder has a solid .305/.342/.381 (.249 TAv) batting line through his first 111 PAs, a major step up from the .213/.273/.253 slash (.206 TAv) he put up in his professional debut with Staten Island. He has strung together a 13 game hitting streak.

Notes

• Yet another blow for former Yankees’ first rounder Ty Hensley on Friday as Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees Blog reported that the oft-injured 22-year-old pitcher will undergo his second Tommy John surgery in as many seasons. Hensley has only managed 14 minor league starts since being selected 30th overall in the 2012 amateur draft due to a variety of ailments.
• The Yankees signed veteran lefty reliever Neal Cotts to a minor league deal and assigned him to Triple-A Scranton Friday. The 36-year-old Cotts had a 3.41 ERA in 63 ⅓ innings split between the Brewers and Twins in 2015.
• Despite two strong starts after his promotion to SWB, Dietrich Enns was sent back down to Trenton Saturday to make room for Cotts.
• Infielder Thairo Estrada was promoted to High-A Tampa on Monday after hitting .286/.324/.429 with five homers during his first 148 PAs with Charleston. The Tampa infield is now pretty crowded with top talent, including Jorge Mateo, Miguel Andujar, and Abiatal Avelino.
• Luis Severino is expected to make a minor league rehab start next Sunday for High-A Tampa as he works his way back from a right triceps strain.
• Gary Sanchez left Tuesday’s game after taking a foul tip to his hand and was placed on the 15-day DL. Not great news for the RailRiders or the Yankees. He’s wrecked International League pitching this month, batting .333/.352/.580 in May. There is no official word yet as to the severity of the injury.

The Quote

“We view Mateo as a future MLB shortstop. We are preparing him to offer versatility to our major league club if needed when he arrives. His primary position is shortstop. Playing on the second base side will also help him when he moves to the right side of the diamond during infield defensive shifts.”- Vice President of Player Development Gary Denbo clearing up misconceptions about Jorge Mateo seeing time at second base for High-A Tampa (Courtesy of Chad Jennings and the LoHud Yankees Blog)

Many fans assumed that a position switch for Mateo was in the works after reports of him working out at second base surfaced. While the organization does have a glut of talent at shortstop in the lower minors, it hardly qualifies as a problem to have too many good players at a position. Whether the team uses its depth in trades or eventually moves players to new positions permanently, its a decision the Yankees won’t have to worry about for a while, if at all. For his part, Mateo looks ready for the jump to Double-A Trenton in the near future after batting .313/.369/.528 (.313 TAv) with 15 steals in his first 41 games with Tampa this season.

The Highlight

On Sunday Gary Sanchez and the RailRiders faced off against Pirates number one prospect Tyler Glasnow, whom BP ranked 11th in their “Top 101 Prospects of 2016.” In the sixth, Sanchez finally got the better of Glasnow, blasting a two-run shot to left-center to give Scranton a 2-0 lead and the eventual victory.

Top Performers

Scranton: Rob Refsnyder (5-15, 4 R, 2 HR, 2B) Ref’s recent hot streak earned him another cup of coffee in the Bronx and a chance to supplant Ronald Torreyes as utility infielder.

Trenton: Dustin Fowler (9-25, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2B, 3B, SB) Fowler is beginning to recover after a slow start in Double-A.

Tampa: Ian Clarkin (14.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K) His strong performance merited a write-up in Baseball America’s Prospect Report. They mentioned his stuff is undiminished by last season’s elbow the injury, which is an encouraging sign despite his mixed results this year.

Charleston: Thairo Estrada- (9-21, 3 HR, 2 2B, 4 R, 4 RBI) The 5’10 155 lb Estrada has clubbed five home runs in his first 30 games of 2016. He had just four in his previous 135 professional games.  

Notes

• Gary Sanchez, New York’s number three prospect according to BP, received his first career start Friday against Chris Sale and the White Sox. He went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and was subsequently demoted.
• 24-year-old Chad Green also earned his first big league start this week, a rocky outing Monday against the Diamondbacks in place of the injured Luis Severino. He was optioned back to Triple-A following the 12-2 loss.
• Rob Refsnyder’s 16 game hitting streak ended Friday against the Indianapolis Indians.
• RailRiders beat writer Shane Hennigan tweeted that although Mason Williams is “progressing well,” there is no timetable for his return at the moment. Williams underwent season ending shoulder surgery last August and is currently on the 60-day DL.
• On Wednesday, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com reported that there was finally an official timetable for James Kaprielian’s recovery from elbow inflammation. No less a source than Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner estimated it would be 4-6 weeks until he was back in action.
• Starting pitchers Dietrich Enns and Eric Ruth were promoted to Triple-A Scranton. Enns went six scoreless innings in his RailRiders’ debut.
• The Yankees traded for 25-year-old Twins righthander J.R. Graham on Saturday. Rated the 63rd best prospect in baseball before the 2013 season, Graham has struggled with injuries and command issues. This kind of high-upside/low-risk pickup has been Cashman’s bread and butter the past few years. Lots still to like here.

The Quote

“He’s still got 80 speed, but he can’t just get away with it anymore.” – A scout cited by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports discussing the base-stealing prowess of top prospect Jorge Mateo.

After swiping 82 bags in 97 chances (84.5%) to lead all minor leaguers last season, Mateo has been caught eight times in 21 attempts (61.9%) in 2016.

The Highlight

It would be hard to find a less likely candidate for a two homer game in the Yankee system than the diminutive Thairo Estrada. There are more toolsy and physically impressive shortstops in the organization, but the scrappy Estrada continues to hold his own against increasingly advanced competition.

Photo: Noah K. Murray / USATSI

Sanchez will look to buck that trend. His second stint in the big leagues will begin on Friday.

Somehow still just 23-years-old, he will join the Yankees as they stare down some of the best left-handed pitching in the league. The White Sox are in town, and their charge into the Bronx will be led by Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. Both rank inside the top 2o in pitcher WARP so far this year and have a combined 12-1 record. The Yankees have struggled mightily against left-handers this season (.685 OPS) and seemingly for all of eternity. Sanchez will be asked to help the team against the best that baseball has to offer.

It remains to be seen just how Sanchez will fit into the roster, and whether he will be in New York for more than a handful of games. He has little left to prove at Triple-A, yet unless Austin Romine is cut loose to make room, he will be the third catcher on the roster. He could theoretically see time at DH, but that would force Carlos Beltran into the field.

Or, he could catch. Sanchez’s bad defensive reputation behind the plate may be somewhat undeserved. His excellent arm has always been a threat to potential base-stealers, and now BP’s new catching metrics have cast a surprisingly bright light on his receiving. As Jeffery Paternostro wrote in January, it seems that Sanchez has made himself an above-average defender. There will still be occasional blunders and mental mistakes, but Sanchez is no longer the disaster he once was. If the bat comes along like many think it can, Sanchez could turn out to be one of the better catchers in baseball.

Yet, as we’ve come to realize far too often, prospects will break your heart. Could Sanchez blossom into an elite catcher? Perhaps, but the bat will always be his carrying tool. More likely, though, is that Sanchez sticks behind the plate for a small span of time before being moved to first base or DH. As in all matters, time will tell.

Sanchez is still seeking his first big-league hit. He went 0-2 in the sprinkle of playing time he enjoyed last September. The Yankees have given him the seemingly impossible task of dealing with Sale and Quintana to earn that very first hit. It is not an assignment that they would have given him if they did not believe he was even slightly up to the challenge.

It’s been a long time coming for Sanchez. He may have to wait just a while longer for a full shot at glory in the Bronx. Friday will be just the latest step in a hard slog to the big leagues for a man who, despite being a source of hope and frustration for what seems like a lifetime, is still just 23 years old. Time is on Gary Sanchez’s side. For now, he has arrived once again, with his eyes set on the left field seats, the right-handed batter’s box, the magic coming out of Chris Sale’s hand, and the dirt behind home plate. Even if he is demoted once he’s served his possibly brief purposes, he will be back. The long road is almost at its end.

Photo: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today Sports

BP released its Top 101 Prospects of 2016 on Friday, which includes three promising youngsters in the Yankees system.

OF Aaron Judge (No. 18)

2015 rank: 59

Book comments: Judge should make his debut in the Bronx sometime in 2016, but it feels like a man of his proportions and potential needs a nickname. For opposing pitchers he might very well be “Judge Dredd,” or when he fires one back up the box, “Judge Holden.” Or maybe his 6-foot-7 frame holds “the long arms of the law.” (When they get extended the 70-grade raw power definitely plays.) All right, these aren’t as good as “Death to Flying Things” (although Judge should be a good defensive right fielder), so maybe we’ll just let his bat do the talking when he gets to East 161st Street.

The right-handed slugger comes in as the fifth-best outfielder in the rankings despite posting disappointing numbers in Triple-A. Still, a .247 TAv in 260 plate appearances isn’t the end of the world, and he did hit for a .316 TAv in  280 trips to the plate in Double-A.

Judge is still a year away from the big leagues thanks to Carlos Beltran’s residence in right field, so he’ll have plenty of time to bring his numbers back up to where they were at previous levels and cut down on his strikeouts (144 in total last season).

SS Jorge Mateo (No. 65)

2015 rank: N/A

Book comments: The Yankees have spent millions in the international market over the last few seasons, blowing past their cap in both 2013 and 2014, but their best IFA prospect might be one they paid just a quarter of a million dollars in 2012. Mateo is an 80 runner fully capable of stolen-base titles. He offers a potentially solid glove at shortstop as well. The bat is still quite raw, and may never win him a Silver Slugger, but he can challenge the old adage that “you can’t steal first.” Every ball in play is a potential single, and every ball up the alleys a potential triple.

The Yankees nearly traded Mateo away in 2015, offering him to the San Diego Padres in exchange for closer Craig Kimbrel. San Diego declined, keeping the Yankees’ potential franchise shortstop in their farm system, and opening the door for the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman.

Mateo remains a focal point of the Yankees’ rebuild, possessing speed and fielding range. While Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro currently occupy the middle infield, there’s no guarantee they will be there in 2018 when Mateo is ready for a call-up.

C Gary Sanchez (No. 92)

2015 rank: N/A

Book comments: This is Sanchez’s sixth appearance on a BP Top 101, so it falls to him to show the kids how to fix the copier and where we keep the K-Cups. He took steps forward on both sides of the ball in 2015, and the plus power and plus-plus arm that have kept him on every new iteration of this list are still very much present. www.baseballprospectus.com Top 101 Prospects – 573 Evaluations differ on whether he is a catcher long term, but the Yankees have an opening for him behind the plate in 2016, albeit as a backup, so we prospect writers should at least be able to avoid the seven-year itch. Maybe Sanchez should avoid any subway grates around the D train just to be on the safe side though.

This may surprise you, because it seems as if he’s been in the Yankees system since 1997, but Gary Sanchez is still just 23-years-old. He earned himself a call-up in September of 2015, and while he didn’t hit any walk-off home runs, he took some legendary cuts in batting practice.

In all seriousness, Sanchez’s time as a major-league catcher may be upon us. The team dealt away John Ryan Murphy to the Minnesota Twins during the offseason, opening up the door for Sanchez to earn a spot backing up Brian McCann. Austin Romine may start the season in that role, but it’s only a matter of time before Sanchez supplants him. Brian Cashman still loves his ability, and once he clubs his first big-league homer, fans will too.

Lead photo: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports