Most teams like to play it safe in a big game. Taking a risk like trying a bullpen game in a win or go home situation seems outrageous. Yet, it may behoove the Yankees to try it, and that doesn’t mean it has to be a game pitched with only relievers. The way I envision it, there are two options:

1. Start Luis Severino, but pull him after two innings or thirty pitches, whichever comes first. This would act as his “throw day” between his usual full-bore starts and allow him to pitch game one of the division series, assuming the Yankees triumph. After Sevy, some combination of Chad Green, Zach Britton, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman should be able to handle the final seven frames.
2. Bullpen game. Basically, you’d subtract Luis Severino from option one and open the game with Green. From there, you go to the same bullpen guys while also being able to sprinkle in Tommy Kahnle or Jonathan Holder as necessary. It’s risky to not use the ace of the rotation, but it ensures that he’s fresh for the next round.

Last year, the Yankees won the wild card game essentially using option one, though that was not the intention. Severino struggled and forced Joe Girardi’s hand. However, Severino did not wind up pitching again until game four of the first round against Cleveland. In all likelihood, the reason the Yankees didn’t utilize that as a throw day was because it wasn’t the plan all along. That game was part of Severino’s usual routine, and putting him back out there on just one day of rest in game one would have been dangerous. I’m sure his performance didn’t help, either.

Scheduled as a throw day, bringing Severino back for the start of the division series doesn’t seem quite as outlandish. Would it be unusual? Absolutely. It’s not like a starter hasn’t been used on his throw day in the postseason before, though. Obviously, it’s important to protect the 24-year-old’s arm for the long-term, but the strings should be loosened with a championship in reach.

If the front office and coaching staff think it’s too much to ask of Severino, then option number two should be in play. It’s not all that much different, though a lesser reliever like Kahnle or Holder may be necessary for a handful of outs. Not using Severino, the team’s ace, for the most important game of the year opens up the club to plenty of criticism, but it’s not like the relief corps are incapable of dominance.

It’s difficult to imagine the Yankees not using Severino whatsoever in a do-or-die game. That makes the first choice a little more plausible in my mind, plus it lessens the burden on the bullpen. That said, who knows how effective Severino would be on a limited pitch count or throw day. Typical throw days certainly don’t match the intensity of a live game, so it’s fair to wonder if Severino might not be as good. Then again, letting Severino air it out for two innings could result in a dominant performance.

If the Yankees went with one of my two proposals and things went awry, the team would take a lot of heat, and that’s precisely why we’ll probably see Severino make a traditional start in the wild card game. I get it, but I think that game is an opportunity for a team to go a little off the beaten path considering any individual baseball game is already a crapshoot. Either of the scenarios I’ve noted theoretically better position the Yankees in a best-of-five because Severino would start games one and five. Of course, winning the wild card must come first. To do that, I’d be open to something unconventional if it gave the Yankees better odds in the next round.

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There’s another side of the weirdness of being a sports fan. We’re supposed to not care about the men playing for our team as people beyond any particularly charming quirks or qualities that they may have. When the team employs a rather unsavory character it’s an uncomfortable situation. We’re asked to look the other way and focus on the player’s accomplishments on the field.

Which brings us to Monday’s trade for Aroldis Chapman. There’s no question that Chapman is a reliever of the highest order and that he makes the Yankee bullpen an absolute force of nature. It’s the best bullpen since the 2014 Royals, if not better. If you’re looking for a pure baseball analysis of this move, read Kenny Ducey’s article. He’s more than admirably detailed the fine points of the trade and its implications. You should read it.

That’s not what I’m writing about. What I’m writing about is the fact that the Yankees have traded for a player who is currently being investigated by Major League Baseball under its new domestic violence policy. For a franchise as image-conscious as the Yankees, it’s a strange turn of events to add someone so publicly toxic as Chapman to the roster. News of Chapman allegedly choking his girlfriend and firing several gunshots in his garage sunk a possible trade to the Dodgers during the Winter Meetings. Now, Brian Cashman has acquired him. That’s a proposition that even Andrew Friedman, who has had a wide assortment of unsavory characters on his roster in the past, thought to be too tall an order.

Not every ballplayer is a saint. If one were to assemble a 25-man roster using only those players that were truly pure of heart, it would be an arduous task. Reality states that there will be a bad apple or two in a group of 25 men. What front offices have to asses is at what point does talent become more important than quality of character. At what point does winning become more important than explaining to a small child that we as sports fans can look the other way if a left-handed pitcher can throw a baseball 100 mph in his sleep?

The lack of overwhelming resentment towards this trade is more than a little disturbing. Every single societal value we posses tells us that violent crime is extremely reprehensible, and if there was a hot-button issue in sports in 2015, it was domestic violence. Indeed, even when the initial report of the Chapman incident surfaced on Yahoo Sports, the predominant reaction was one of shock and disdain. Yet now that a month has passed and Chapman is going to be wearing pinstripes, it’s like we all just got a shiny new toy for baseball Christmas. It’s big and flashy and melts radar guns! It’s a ridiculous bullpen! The Yankees can basically play six-inning games!

That’s incredible to be sure. But if anything, we’ve only just shown ourselves what we truly think is important. We care more about the uniforms than the people wearing them. Would Freidman’s past employment of Josh Lueke  be so infamous if Lueke was an excellent pitcher? Sports figures such as Patrick Kane and Kobe Bryant have shown us that the best way to shake off despicable allegations is to possess an infinite well of talent to drink from. Chapman may already be the next member of that group.

Of course, things work out quite well for the Yankees even if Chapman is suspended in the end. If Chapman misses more than 45 games by sitting on the Restricted List during a theoretical suspension, his free agency would be pushed back another year. The Yankees would then get themselves a year and a half of the Cuban Missile. From a pure business perspective, it’s a rather brilliant stroke of work by Cashman. From a pure business perspective, it’s a no-lose situation. If Chapman isn’t suspended, he’s got a full season of the most disgusting bullpen in baseball, and quite likely a draft pick to collect at the year’s end. If Chapman’s suspended, he may be able to squeeze two postseason runs out of his relief corps. And either way, fans will show up in droves, regardless of what Chapman has done. The uniforms are far more important, and at the end of the day, it’s the Yankees. People will come, Ray. People will most certainly come.

That doesn’t change that at the end of the day, we don’t care about what Aroldis Chapman has done. We don’t care that he allegedly choked his girlfriend and that he’s under investigation by the league. We don’t care because he’s not our coworker, he’s the Yankees’ coworker, and we’re going to cheer for him when he takes the mound to mow down the opposition. We don’t care because sports is entertainment, and there’s nothing more entertaining than the thought of an aging David Ortiz trying to keep up with a lefty throwing triple digits.

We don’t care. And that’s sad. It’s truly sad. We as a society have taken leave of our morals when it comes to the off-field conduct of athletes. If our workplace hired someone who was known to be a domestic abuser, we’d be horrified. But when the Yankees trade for a domestic abuser who happens to have the ability to throw a ball at Mach 3, it’s cause for celebration. There’s no question that Chapman makes the Yankees better on the field. However, the mental gymnastics necessary to feel wholly good about this trade are disturbing. So when you explain to your child why it’s okay that Aroldis Chapman gets a standing ovation when he’s introduced on Opening Day, make sure you’re honest with yourself, too.

Lead photo courtesy of Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

New York traded four prospects to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for left-handed relief ace Aroldis Chapman on Monday, continuing what’s been a stealthily sound offseason. He joins incumbent closer Andrew Miller and set-up man Dellin Betances in the back-end of a suddenly terrifying bullpen.

Chapman was on his way to the Dodgers in early December before news of an ugly domestic violence incident surfaced, prompting a league investigation and throwing a wrench into the trade. The 27-year-old was not arrested or charged, but is facing a potential suspension. He’s due to become a free agent next winter, but would not hit the market until 2017 if he is held out at least 40 games.

In the trade, the Yankees sent away third baseman Eric Jagielo, their No. 8 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, along with infielder Tony Renda and relievers Caleb Cotham and Rookie Davis. Cotham is the only one who has experience at the major-league level.

Who the Yankees Get

Put bluntly, the Yankees acquired one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball for a cheap price—there is no question that Chapman is an elite arm.

There are questions, however regarding what kind of individual he is. Chapman allegedly choked his girlfriend during an argument in October, and admitted to police that he fired eight rounds from his gun. From a baseball standpoint, there were never any red flags prior to the news regarding Chapman’s attitude or character, though it remains to be seen how this will affect his presence in the clubhouse.

Chapman is the hardest thrower in MLB history. Last season he threw the 62 fastest pitches in baseball, according to MLB’s Statcast, maxing out at league-high 103.92 mph. He averaged 99.96 mph on his fastball, which, predictably, also led the league.

His career Deserved Run Average, Baseball Prospectus’ fairly new-and-shiny statistic that factors in ballparks, fielding, and other variables, is a sparkling 2.17. He’s ‘struggled’ just once in his career, in 2011, when he earned a 2.73 DRA and a 92 cFIP, which pegged him as only ‘Above Average.’

PECOTA projects Chapman to shine once again in 2016 with a 1.91 ERA and 2.9 WARP, and continue his dominance well into his thirties.

The only thing that may slow down the four-time All-Star is pastries; he once ate 18 prior to a game, surrendered two home runs, and blew the save.

What It Means

After trading away relievers Adam Warren and Justin Wilson to begin December, the Yankees were left with no clear-cut No. 3 option in the bullpen behind Miller and Betances. Chasen Shreve and Bryan Mitchell had both regressed towards the end of last season, and 22-year-old Jacob Lindgren, a.k.a. Big Chunk, a.k.a. Chunky saw just seven innings of action last season.

Now, the Yankees have all the flexibility in the world with three incredibly solid relievers at the back of their bullpen. Betances can pitch multiple innings at a time, and any one of the top-three can seamlessly transition into the closer role. This will allow Lindgren to be eased into more high-leverage work, and keep Shreve, who perhaps just dealt with fatigue last August, fresh.

This also means that there are theoretically just six innings to worry about. The rotation, which includes a youngster (Luis Severino) and recently-injured pitchers (Nathan Eovaldi, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, CC Sabathia), can be deployed in a more conservative manner by Joe Girardi.

It also means Greg Bird will need to order a larger supply of bats this season:

What Happens Next

General manager Brian Cashman said on his post-transaction conference call that he was not going to be dealing away Miller to make room for Chapman, and that the plan is to keep this potentially legendary trio of relievers together. This puts to bed the notion that the Yankees would flip Miller for more organizational depth.

He also noted that he’s not going to be trading for another starting pitcher, calling his rotation “full.” One of last year’s six starting pitchers will have to slide into the 4-5 slot in the bullpen. It could be Nova, or it could be Sabathia; it could even be Severino. The bullpen should be sufficiently stocked, though they may want to consider adding one more arm.

There’s a realistic chance that Chapman, who will turn 28 before Opening Day, could be a part of the organization’s on-the-fly rebuild. If he is barred from baseball for 40 or more games, he will hit arbitration one season later, making him a free agent in 2017. While Cashman has been reluctant to hand out long-term deals to players entering their thirties, he might see a four or five year deal for Chapman as smart and plausible. If our PECOTA projections hold up, he’d certainly be worth big money. And, as is known around the globe, the Yankees will be able to afford him.

Lead photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Trading Adam Warren for Starlin Castro made sense. Castro is young, he plays second base, and he’s got a lot of upside. He’ll be around for a while, too. That’s worth three years of a capable swingman. As good as Warren can be in short bursts, Castro fits a dire need. No harm, no foul.

That’s where the Justin Wilson trade comes in. Wilson was a 1.4 WARP reliever, and a valuable lefty that could tackle both right-handed and left-handed hitters. Though he went through periods of wildness, Wilson was a valuable part of the late-inning success of the Yankees. He was shipped to Detroit this week for minor league pitchers Luis Cessa and Chad Green. Cessa and Green, while they have their share of warts, could turn into somewhat useful big league pitchers. That’s all fine and dandy.

However, the Yankee bullpen is now Miller, Betances and… stuff. Chasen Shreve will return, but his famous self-immolation down the stretch was quite scary. Ideally he’ll be able to stand up to Joe Girardi-levels of use in 2016, but there are no guarantees. Bryan Mitchell may take up the super-swingman role from Adam Warren. Jacob Lindgren’s elbow should be bone chip-fee and ready to doll out the strikeouts. Of the three, Lindgren is the most likely to step into Wilson’s role.

But is that good enough? The rest of the relief corps will likely be made up of some of the Nick Rumbelow-Branden Pinder-James Pazos group, and as good as some of them (particularly Pazos) could be, they leave much to be desired in terms of experience.

Brian Cashman has picked an odd time to trade away his two best middle relievers. The free agent market offered very little in terms of talent, and what was there has been quickly snatched up. Darren O’Day is returning to Baltimore, Mark Lowe will be teammates with Wilson in Detroit, and the Nationals will get a taste of The Shawn Kelley Experience that Yankees fans are all too familiar with. The best reliever left out there might just be the repurposed Joe Blanton, and Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly the place to discover that Blanton has fallen back into his homer-surrendering ways.

Therefore the trade market may prove to be the most appealing place to find help. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News claims that the Rangers are willing to talk turkey on their relievers, and both Keone Kela and Shawn Tolleson are remarkably attractive pieces. Kela struck out 10.1 batters per nine innings and may be the true prize here. DRA is much more fond of him (2.98) than it is of Tolleson (3.78). Tolleson also handled closing duties for Texas and his saves may make him more expensive.

Kela is controllable for five more seasons and is exactly the kind of young high-leverage arm that the Yankees should be targeting. He won’t be cheap, but he’ll come much cheaper than a splashier move like a reunion with Mark Melancon. To preserve the admirable minor league depth that they’ve built up, the Yankees will need to be thrifty and savvy to fill the holes on the roster. The starting rotation is a higher priority but Cashman undoubtedly has many irons in the fire. It would simply be a shame to watch the Yankees morph into the Tigers and give away games due to a shaky bullpen. There’s little point in having an elite closer and an elite setup man if the game never reaches them. Leads can quickly evaporate in a hail of dingers. It’s up to the bullpen to not surrender them.

(Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Since the All-Star break, Yankee relievers have pitched to a 3.86 ERA. In the last month, the group has a 4.85 ERA and 4.76 FIP. A hefty portion of the relief work has been done by pitchers that spent the year in the minor leagues and it shows. What was once a strength is now largely a group of inexperienced rookies and tired mainstays. The act of starting up the bullpen has been a roll of the dice for Joe Girardi, especially with his starting pitchers not working deep into games. He now gets to do that with the season on the line, and then against the Royals. He’s got his work cut out for him to say the least.

We know for sure that Betances, Warren, Justin Wilson and Andrew Miller will get spots. These are the rest of the candidates:

• Chasen Shreve
• Chris Capuano
• Ivan Nova
• Bryan Mitchell
• Andrew Bailey
• Nick Rumbelow
• Nick Goody
• Branden Pinder
• Caleb Cotham
• James Pazos
• Chris Martin

There’s a chance that Nathan Eovaldi could become healthy enough to be activated at some point, but the Yankees likely won’t want to risk the chance that he won’t be ready for important outings. That means these are the guys from which Girardi must select. I won’t pretend to have inside knowledge to Girardi’s thought process and most of these pitchers have been inside and outside of his fabled Circle of Trust at various times.

The most obvious choice seems to be Rumbelow. When Rumbelow is right, his stuff is electric. In 15.2 innings with the big club, Rumbelow has struck out 22.1 percent of the batters he’s faced, but he’s also walked five and given up two homers. This is a rather small sample, of course, but Rumbelow isn’t the worst option to eat an inning or two if the Yankees have a comfortable lead. That’s five of the spots filled. The recipients of the other two spots will likely not matter very much, as if the last man in the bullpen has to get into a playoff game, the game is likely over or deep into extra innings. The Royals showed us last year that due to the rest days built into the playoff schedule, it’s a bit easier to run the big guns out every time they’re needed.

That won’t matter if the Yankees don’t escape the showdown with the Astros. In the very real scenario in which Masahiro Tanaka serves up a few home runs to the powerful Astros and the Yankees have to get into their bullpen early, how do they piece together the necessary innings? CC Sabathia will probably be available in relief, but Sabathia has allowed a humongous .370 wOBA to right-handed hitters this year. The Astros are made up largely of righty power hitters like Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis and George Springer. Is Luis Severino capable of pitching effectively on short rest? With Dallas Kuechel on the mound for Houston, the Yankees don’t want to have to find out.

(Photos: Adam Hunger-USA Today Sports)