As is the case with many great players, all three eventually made their way to the Yankees: A-Rod in 2003 via trade, Beltrán as a free agent last year, and Sabathia as a free agent in 2009. Despite those flashes A-Rod showed during April, none of these three players can still claim to be superstars anymore. Rodriguez, Beltrán, and CC Sabathia are dealing with eroding skills, chronic injuries, and are both deep into the post-prime decline portion of their careers. They will all likely retire when their current contracts run out.

But what if we didn’t have to wait that long? What if as one of his first tweaks to the MLB’s collective bargaining agreement, Rob Manfred gave each team a contract mulligan similar to the amnesty provision that exists in the NBA? And what if he instituted this policy tomorrow? Which of these three players would you lobby Brian Cashman to cut from the 2015 Yankees?

Amnesty Clause Terms:

• Each team is eligible to release one player currently under contract onto waivers, immediately voiding the players contract.
• The team would NOT be required to pay the remaining dollars owed to the player (different than the NBA) and the contract would NOT contribute towards the luxury tax ceiling.
• The luxury tax threshold is $189M for 2015 and the Yankees current payroll is $217M.  Cutting any of the three this year wouldn’t get the team under the tax line but could in future seasons.

Two months ago your immediate reaction probably would have been “A-Rod, A-Rod, a thousand times A-Rod!”  But A-Rod’s shown he still has some thump left in his bat and is probably the most productive player of the three right now.  So before we throw A-Rod down amnesty river and call it a day, let’s give this serious consideration.

The Contracts

The main benefit of this hypothetical amnesty provision is the money it would allow teams to save. So which of these three contracts is the worst?

Ok, so you’re not wrong on this front. A-Rod’s contract will always be the worst. The 10-year, $275M contract he signed in 2008 was ahead of its time, and by that I mean even inflation couldn’t prevent that contract from looking really, really awful six years in. And the $61M accounted for above doesn’t include the $6M the Yankees are refusing to pay him for hitting #660 a week ago or the $6M he could be owed if he reaches 700, 714, 755, or 762. At best, the Yankees owe Mr. Rodriguez only $61M to be their designated hitter for the next three seasons, though if he’s able to catch Ruth, Aaron, or Bonds in that time he’ll be worth every penny. The third and final year of the deal is the main issue at hand – it’s going to be difficult to stomach paying a 41-year old $20M to play DH two years from now.

CC Sabathia signed his contract during the splurge before 2009 that also netted the team Mark Teixeira and AJ Burnett. The 7-year, $161M contract stood as the largest contract given to a pitcher until Felix Hernandez’s deal four years later, which shows just how much the Yankees wanted CC. And for a few years he was worth even more than the $23.5M AAV of the contract, netting over 18 WAR during the first three years of the deal. The problem with the contract in retrospect is how the money was allocated. Instead of front-loading the contract to pay a premium during CC’s prime, the Yankees spread the money out evenly throughout the seven years. He has and will receive at least $23M until the end of the deal, and now the Yankees are left with a hefty $53M bill for his age 34 – 36 seasons.

Beltrán’s contract isn’t an albatross by any measure so the contract is not the main issue with him. Sure he’s not playing like a $15M per year player anymore but it’s the Yankees for God’s sake – they’d probably pay $15M for a years-worth supply of eggplant calzones.

Worst Contract: Alex Rodriguez

On-Field Production

On the open market, the going rate for a win above replacement these days is generally agreed to be somewhere around $7M. By that measure for the team to break even, A-Rod needs to average about 3 WAR per year, CC over 3.5 WAR per year, and Beltran a little over 2 WAR per year for the remainder of their contracts. Beltrán has the lowest performance threshold but in this case that doesn’t matter. I doubt any of the trio will play up to that figure but who will underperform the most?  Let’s take a look at what each player has done over the last few years on the field.

Alex Rodriguez

To get a sufficient sample of A-Rod’s recent history you have to go all the way back to 2012, his last full season of baseball. While he’s been on the field since then he hasn’t been a superstar, but he’s proving to be a valuable bat and still an above-average hitter. You could certainly make a case he’s been the best Yankee hitter in 2015, and considering they’ve been a top-ten offense so far that’s incredible from a 39-year-old. Shifting him permanently to DH is a good move to prevent deterioration and if he keeps up some semblance of his current production it’s entirely possible that he’s worth a good portion of 3 WAR/year for the rest of his contract.

Carlos Beltrán

On the heels of a nine-game hitting streak, Carlos Beltrán upped his 2015 batting average to .234 this week.  Woo!  In other news, he should not be playing right field. He’s a poor fielder by most defensive metrics and the negative bWAR is mostly due to his bad defense – he has 0.2 oWAR as a Yankee. He would be better employed as a designated hitter at this point in his career, but Chase Headley and Mark Teixeira’s presence on the team forced A-Rod to DH, leaving Beltran to “patrol” right field. Additionally, his extended slump to start the year had everyone lose faith in his ability to hit anymore and calling for his head. PECOTA expects a decent rebound to about league average hitting for the remainder of the year but it wouldn’t surprise me if his career .692 OPS in pinstripes is the new normal for Carlos.

CC Sabathia

For most of his career, CC Sabathia was a power pitcher whose repertoire was built around a 95-mph fastball. Since 2013, his fastball velocity has steadily dropped and his ERA has steadily risen. Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, there are a number of formerly great pitchers in recent memory  who’ve experienced this same abrupt loss in velocity and as a result struggled. For Halladay it happened late in his career and after some chronic injury problems, he called it quits. Lincecum and Weaver were younger and were forced to fundamentally change the way they pitch. Sabathia is somewhere in between – he’s 34 right now and three years into his decline. He’s not even pitching at a league average clip anymore and will likely hover around replacement level until he’s bought out a year and a half from now, a large problem for a guy still owed $53M.

Most Likely to Underperform: CC Sabathia

Replacement Options

A-Rod is officially a full-time designated hitter now. DH used to mean something but in today’s MLB the role is mostly filled by old guys, regulars in need of a break, or a bench platoon. As I alluded to in a previous section, the Yankees would probably follow suit and make Carlos Beltrán their full-time DH in A-Rod’s stead, creating an opening in right field permanently for Chris Young. The long term solution in right field will hopefully be Aaron Judge, the Yankees hulkish prospect currently tearing up Double-A in Trenton.

Cutting Carlos Beltrán would result in the same exact scenario outlined with A-Rod. But Beltrán is the worse player right now so replacing him would be less harmful to the team.

Taking Sabathia out of the rotation right now would be troublesome. Tanaka is still a question mark and with the recent elbow injury to Chase Whitley, Chris Capuano is no longer just an extra starter, so the team would likely turn to latin pop superstar Esmil Rogers (Editor’s note: or Bryan Mitchell) in the short term. The long term solution to cutting Sabathia would be to use the money owed him to lure in a younger, better soon-to-be free agent pitcher. Jordan Zimmerman, Jeff Samardzija, Zack Grienke (probably not, but maybe), Johnny Cueto, and David Price are all free agents this offseason and some of them could even become available at the trade deadline. Replacing CC Sabathia’s innings-eating with an ace within the next year is a huge potential upgrade for the team.

Best Replacement Option: Carlos Beltrán (short-term), CC Sabathia (long-term)

Injury History

A-Rod’s hip is probably bionic by now, which means this might be possible, but he could also lose permanent function of his legs altogether at any moment. The positives are (1) he hasn’t gotten hurt yet, and (2) he is no longer playing the field. The move should improve his durability, though I was hoping to see more of A-Rod’s adventures at first base.

Carlos Beltrán’s injury history is staggering and impressive – indirectly it may even keep him out of the hall of fame. In an injury competition he usually comes out on top.

CC Sabathia made only eight starts last year before having season-ending knee surgery to remove bone spurs but prior to that he was Mr. Reliable. He’d started no fewer than 28 games in a season since coming up for the Cleveland Indians as a 20-year-old.  Having a generally “balky knee” these days isn’t ideal but for a 300-pound man after 14 straight years of injury-free pitching it’s hardly surprising.

Most Likely to Get Injured: Carlos Beltrán forever and always

Fan Perspective

The final category is the most subjective, but the basic premise is “How much would you care if he got cut?”

Alex Rodriguez, the fans, and the media have had their differences. In New York he always played second banana to Jeter from a popularity standpoint, even though his numbers during most of those years were downright gaudy. The steroiding and re-steroiding forever tarnished A-Rod’s credibility as much as the fire hydrant in front of Tiger Woods’ house damaged his. Despite this, he’s the default face of the franchise at this point. Without him, people might not hate the Yankees as much. And what is baseball if people don’t hate the Yankees?

Carlos Beltrán is the new guy. He doesn’t have a huge, boisterous personality and hasn’t really endeared himself to fans on or off the field. Beltrán joined the team as a 37-year-old and never had a vintage year in pinstripes so there’s no real feeling of attachment to him.

CC Sabathia is the most likeable guy of the three. He had a few great years, got a ring with the team, and he’s been an all-around superb Yankee since he came here. The organization feels a strong sense of loyalty to him.

Easiest to Break Up With: Carlos Beltrán

The Verdict: CC Sabathia

Before writing this article I bounced the amnesty provision idea off two other people and asked what they would do if they were Brian Cashman in this scenario. One said he would cut A-Rod, the other Beltrán, and I said CC Sabathia. I don’t think any of the three is especially wrong here, but each choice represents a different school of thought.

By amnestying A-Rod, the team would be cutting ties with the most productive of the three players. The move would sacrifice success in the present for flexibility in the 2016 offseason. It’d allow Brian Cashman to purge his backlog of terrible contracts all at once (Teixeira comes off the books in 2016 too) and dive into the 2017 offseason with an open checkbook ready to treat himself. But the Yankees aren’t a team known to postpone contending and keeping A-Rod would give them the best chance to win before 2016.

Beltrán would be the right choice if his contract was on the same level as the other two. He’s the worst player of the three and nearly 150 games into his tenure with the Yankees, it’s getting hard to call his lack of production a slump as opposed to simply reality. Cutting him also seems like the easiest decision of the three. Beltrán hasn’t done anything to deserve our loyalty, Chris Young seems like a decent replacement, and he’s going to retire after his contract is up anyways – cutting him would be the baseball equivalent of euthanasia. But the money isn’t that wasteful and the Yankees will see what they can get out of him this year and next.

But the right choice would be to cut CC Sabathia.  He’s the right combination of costly, unproductive, and expendable for me.  With the 2017 buyout, his contract is a year shorter than A-Rod’s but he’ll cost just $8M less.  He’s going on 50 starts now allowing more than half of a run per inning.  And the thought of adding David Price to a rotation already featuring Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda makes my heart race.

Photo: Jonathan Dyer-USA Today Sports

That being said, Mark Teixeira has the perfect swing for Yankee Stadium. He doesn’t keep his bat in the zone long, but his uppercut is built to do damage when he makes contact. He’s been Tex-messaging the short porch in right field since he signed with the Yankees in 2009. Sure, his swing isn’t as gorgeous as Griffey’s, and his uppercut creates a good deal of roll-over ground balls, but it’s hard to find a swing better suited for a ballpark than Teixeira in Yankee Stadium.

After a couple years wrecked by wrist injuries, Mark Teixeira has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball to this point in 2015. Through Wednesday, he has produced 1.52 bWARP, good for 17th in baseball.  His wRC+ is 153, tied with Justin Upton for 21st overall. Among hitters with 50+ plate appearances, his TAv of .351 and his OPS of .968 place him 21st and 17th in the league.

No matter what metric you use to quantify overall performance, Mark Teixeira has been one of the best hitters in baseball this year. Combined with his continued stellar glove-work at first base (seven scoops already this year, no errors), Mark Teixeira is having a renaissance and is a good pick for comeback player of the year through 34 games.

The way in which Mark Teixeira is producing offensive value this year is something to behold.

Of his 133 plate appearances thus far, he’s recorded a hit less than 20% of the time.  And when he puts the ball in play it’s probably being caught or going for extra bases. After a two-single day earlier this week his single count is all the way up to…seven.  The only other player with seven singles and over 100 plate appearances is the ghost of Shin-Soo Choo. He’s miraculously going 19 at-bats between singles this year, putting him on pace for only 35 for the entirety of 2015.

For context, the league leader in singles this year is Dee Gordon who has already recorded 44 singles. But with eight doubles and eleven homers, Mark Teixeira has made up for his singles drought, with 67 total bases already, eleventh in the league and one more than the aforementioned Dee Gordon. Nearly all of Teixeira’s value this year is coming by way of the extra base hit.

At this point in the season the question everyone wants answered is if it’s sustainable. If Teixeira can maintain an OPS over .900 for the rest of the year, the Yankees very well could be playing baseball come October. The way I look at it, Mark Teixeira has been lucky and unlucky in two specific ways so far in 2015 creating this funky slash line and ridiculous .615 slugging percentage.

First, Mark has been unlucky turning balls in play into hits. He’s sporting a .181 BABIP, well below the league average, his own career average, and even his lowest full-season output. He’s not fast and opposing teams have used the shift on him for years so a low BABIP is hardly surprising, but right now he’s several standard deviations below the mean. His LD/FB/GB percentages and spray profile are all right around his career norm so his approach hasn’t been altered in any way and a BABIP increase is likely right around the corner.

On the other hand, Teixeira might be in for some negative regression in his power numbers. Over a quarter of the fly balls he’s hit so far have gone for home runs. His HR/FB% right now sits at 27.5%, significantly higher than his career average of 18.2% and just above Jose Abreu’s league-leading 26.9% last year. 11 home runs are already in the bank, but his home run rate will likely to fall and we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for 30 more this season.

All of these trends amount to a foreseeable drop in his isolated slugging percentage.  ISO is SLG – AVG, so with a falling home run rate and bump in BABIP (conducive to singles), Teixeira’s ISO will likely fall back down closer to his career norm.

Per Fangraphs: Teixeira Career ISO vs League Average

Mark Teixeira is a key player for the Yankees this year. Their depth at first base amounts to Garrett Jones and a centaur. His offensive production through 34 games is a big reason the Yankees find themselves in first place in the division and Teixeira maintaining even 80% of his production thus far will keep them on the path to the playoffs.

Photo credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA Today Sports

From Tom Selleck to Ron Burgundy to more recently, Ron Swanson, thick moustaches were a birthright and a true symbol of manliness. For the Yankees they serve as a workaround for the “no beards” policy, and as a sacrifice to the baseball gods.

For the team as a whole, the ‘staches have been an overwhelming source of strength. The Yankees have won every series since adopting them on April 17th and as of Wednesday morning, find themselves three games ahead in the AL East. But on an individual level, the moustaches are having more varied levels of success.  Some players are taking to them well but others weren’t born to handle the burden of the moustache. So now it’s time to perform the very first ever With Or Without Stache (WOWS) analysis to determine whether any Yankee hitters should break out the razor or whether they should all keep rocking the ‘stache.

*”Swansons” are the SI unit of moustache quality and range from 1 (worst) to 5 (best)

Jacoby Ellsbury

Moustache Rating: 3 Swansons

Fun fact about Mr. Ellsbury: according to Baseball Reference, his nickname is Tacoby Bellsbury. Through April 17th, the “day of stache-ing,” Jacoby Ellsbury was hitting like the leadoff hitter of Joe Morgan’s dreams. A decent average, good on-base percentage, but nothing but singles (only one extra base hit). He was hitting like a side taco at the aforementioned Taco Bell; you’re left wanting more. Now, he’s satisfying you like someone wrapped your taco in a quesadilla or shoved a a burrito inside your enchilada, in other words, the entire rest of Taco Bell’s menu.

Jacoby has turned it on ever since he sprouted his moustache. We’ve forgotten all about those “oh is this all he is now?” or “now I know why Philly fans hate Ben Revere” thoughts we were totally having a week into the season. He’s cut his early-season strikeout rate nearly in half, down slightly below his career average of about 13%, a key for a speedy hitter who does damage by putting balls in play. Jacoby’s also turned more fly balls into line drives this year. He’s currently rocking the highest line drive rate of his career at 28.6% and a career-low fly ball rate of 27.5%. Keeping the ball out of the air is a recipe for success for him and he’s among the top line drive hitters in baseball to this point. These crazy numbers might be fueled a bit by an absurd .435 BABIP since April 17, but in the past few weeks he’s been hitting exactly like the player Brian Cashman expected him to be.

Verdict: Never shave above the lip again

Alex Rodriguez

Moustache Rating: 0 Swansons

Ok I’ll admit, I fudged the date a bit on A-Rod’s WOWS splits. But in my defense, the alleged date of Brett Gardner’s facial hair inspiration was a turning point in A-Rod’s season to this point. So rather than April 17, I used April 18 as the first “With Stache” date for Mr. 660 and let’s be honest, nobody got the memo before then anyways.

April 17 was the opening game of a series sweep in Tampa Bay and A-Rod carried the team to victory that night. He hit two home runs, including this blast, and knocked in the game winning run in the eighth inning. I also have a faint recollection of him picking up the save but that might have just been my imagination.

After that game, A-Rod was sitting on an MVP-level slash line and an OPS of 1.313 (#13 for lyfe). He was knocking the cover off the ball, walking more than ever before, and I was raving about his new, possibly bionic hip. Since then he’s been hitting on the interstate. But if you look at a few of his peripheral numbers, he’s actually improved parts of his approach, but just fallen victim to an expected foe. His batted ball stats show he’s hitting about the same proportion of line drives, fly balls, and ground balls this season as he has throughout his entire career. From the STATCAST leaderboard at Baseball Savant, he’s still among the league leaders in hit velocity. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, but his BABIP has been perilously low ever since “growing a ‘stache.”

That’s where the real problem lies for A-Rod. He’s been “unlucky” with a .162 BABIP since April 18, a telltale sign that the baseball gods are angry with him. And why might they be angry? Well for one, I’ve seen no evidence that he even tried to grow a moustache.  There were allegations he never took to the idea at all, and some tongue-in-cheek comments from A-Rod himself in the New York Post that “it’s going to take [him] a long time” to grow one.

Hey A-Rod, sack up and grow a hideous moustache like the rest of your team. Here are some blueprints for your new getup. I think I speak for most of us here in saying you should give the ‘stache a chance.

Verdict: Stop BS-ing and grow one already!

Photo credit: Bob DeChiara-USA Today Sports

The biggest news to this point in the week is Masahiro Tanaka’s injury. He’s back on the disabled list for an injury to his throwing arm and the Tommy John chorus is louder than ever. I wrote about Tanaka at length during the first week of the season and stand by everything I said. It’s possible he ends up on the operating table by the end of May, but that doesn’t mean the team made a mistake avoiding surgery last year. #TanakaWatch2015 is in full swing and Nick Ashbourne kicked off our extensive coverage here this week.

The other main story this week is the countdown to 661. It’s unofficially “A-Rod Week” here at BP Bronx but given his penchant for dragging out these home run milestones, it might turn into “A-Rod Month” if he gets stuck at 659 or 660 for a while. Your newsfeed is already flooded with A-Rod this, A-Rod that, but please be patient as I give you my two cents on the impending milestone.

I am among a select 79,762 people to ever live. I was born and raised in the San Francisco Bay Area and despite my father’s childhood ties to the Yankees, I grew up a Giants fan. In recent years this allegiance resulted in a superstitious belief in even year magic, a constant stench of garlic on my breath, and a growing collection of rings. During childhood though, my memories of baseball boil down to an affliction for rally monkeys and a montage of milestone home runs from Barry Bonds. On September 17, 2004, that 39-year old behemoth launched a ball into the bleachers becoming the third player to ever hit 700 home runs. And with that swing of the bat, I became one of 79,762 to ever witness such an event in person.

Over the past eleven or so years, Alex Rodriguez has done a pretty good job as the Yankees very own Barry Bonds. Ever since he first donned a Yankees jersey in 2004, he’s slowly worked his way up the career home run leaderboards, crossing off record after record, toppling hall of famer after hall of famer. His one-two steps to catch and overtake significant home run milestones play an integral role in recent Yankees history, just as Barry’s influenced my early life. As Rodriguez approaches Willie Mays’ record of 660 home runs, the parallels between him and Bonds run deep.

Both started their careers elsewhere — Bonds in Pittsburgh, Rodriguez in Seattle and then Texas. Both piled up MVP trophies — Bonds got five in San Francisco, Rodriguez got two in New York. Each career was tarnished by steroid use and despite being the best hitter ever at each of their positions, Bonds and Rodriguez face uphill battles to get a plaques in Cooperstown.

At a franchise level, the comparisons again hold. Throughout Bonds’ prime in San Francisco he was surrounded with veteran talent in an effort to constantly compete for a World Series. For Rodriguez and the Yankees of the last ten plus years the same has been true. In both cases, the teams feel like they underachieved, only able to parlay consistent contention into one World Series appearance during the players’ careers (Giants lost in 2002, Yankees won in 2009). The dynasty for the Yankees came, and for the Giants is currently coming, during the early part of a more humble, fan-friendly player’s career – Jeter and Posey. The final key home run milestones were and will be toppled during a period of franchise mediocrity – the Giants won 70-something games during the last three years with Bonds, the Yankees likely 80-something with Rodriguez’s final few.

As for the records themselves, Rodriguez topping Willie Mays’ 660 could be construed as poetic justice for Bonds surpassing Babe Ruth’s 714. For Giants fans, Willie Mays, is the greatest baseball player of all time. He patrolled center field better than anyone, he hit for both power and average, and the team continues to celebrate him to this day. Babe Ruth on the other hand was the greatest player of the greatest franchise of all time. He holds the top spot on the list of all-time Yankees, and according to career offensive WAR is the best hitter of all time (Bonds second, Mays third, Rodriguez twelfth).  Mays is Ruth for the Giants, and Ruth is Mays for the Yankees. When admitted steroid-user Alex Rodriguez hits 661 and passes the Say Hey Kid, it will be a sad day for me, but might serve as retribution for when a juiced up Barry Bonds passed Babe Ruth’s 714.

The one key difference between Barry and Alex is their local perception. At the time Bonds hit his final four milestones, home runs 661, 700, 715, and 753, his steroid use was alleged, but not confirmed (the Mitchell Report was released the winter after he retired). Due to the rumors and his general arrogance, the general public might have hated him. But in the confines of San Francisco, out of either unconditional love or general naïveté about his PED use, Barry Bonds was still a beloved figure and celebrated appropriately.

For A-Rod, these last few years have been rough in New York. Since admitting in 2009 that he used steroids during his Texas years, his relationship with the city and the team was strained. In the years since, his steep decline, involvement in the Biogenesis scandal, and the resulting record-setting suspension turned him into a pariah amongst fans, media members, and even his own general manager. Hot start to this season aside, his status as such is etched in stone.

Right now Rodriguez is only slightly older than Bonds when he hit 661, but Bonds continued to put up OPS’s over 1.000 until he was 42. For Alex, this will likely be his last significant home run record (700 is a ways away) and as fans, we should embrace the chance to see him break it. Up until he hit his final home run, stadiums were packed to see Barry Bonds break home run records. As the picture below from Monday details, Alex Rodriguez is not getting the same treatment, even in his home ballpark. For the next day, week, or however long it takes him to hit two more big flies, I urge fans everywhere to celebrate the history Alex is about to re-write. Take some time out of your day to appreciate Al from Miami for being one of the greatest hitters in the history of baseball.

Two first place teams in the Bronx. I’ve seen bigger crowds at The Trop. pic.twitter.com/nfQDUh74dV

— Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) April 27, 2015

Photo Credit: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports

Runs are down across baseball.  This statement should come as a shock to nobody, as the decline of offense is pretty well established at this point.  Last year the average lineup scored 4.07 runs per game, the lowest figure for a full season since 1978 (in 2015 so far it’s up a bit to 4.22 per game).

Despite offense declining around the league, the AL East (minus the Rays) continues to be a division associated with scoring a lot of runs.  Part of this is due to the reputation the Rogers Centre, Camden Yards, Fenway Park, and Yankee Stadium each carry for being offense-inflating environments, but the park factor data suggests this argument holds little weight.

The Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox, and Yankees have made building dynamic offenses a point of emphasis, often to the detriment of their pitching staffs.  The Blue Jays boast the best offense in baseball so far and start former All-Stars 1-5 in the lineup.  Apart from Chris Tillman, who served as a replacement for Justin Verlander two years ago, the last Orioles starting pitcher selected to the All-Star Game was Mike Mussina in 1999.  This past winter, the Red Sox signed the two most expensive free agent hitters on the market, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.  The Yankees are just a few years removed from four straight top-two finishes in runs scored. These four teams play the highest scoring games in all of baseball (runs scored + allowed) and boast top-ten offenses themselves (runs scored). Runs abound in the AL East.

Offense at a Glance

I didn’t expect to be calling the Yankees a top-ten offense at any point this season, much less the second best offense in baseball.  At best, I thought the lineup might be surprisingly competent and five games into the year, competence looked like it might be too lofty a goal. But in the ten-plus games since, they’ve completely rebounded offensively, eliciting flashbacks to Yankee lineups past and dare I say, hope for the remainder of the year? So how have they been doing it? What do we know about the Yankees offense through 1/10 of the season?

Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, and Russell Branyan were famous “Three True Outcomes” (TTO) hitters, for whom nearly half their at-bats ended in strikeouts, walks, or home runs, without involving the defense.  Often these three results go hand in hand, as players who swing hard tend to whiff a lot and players who work deep counts put themselves at risk of striking out.

Right now the Yankees are the Adam Dunn of teams.  They are hitting home runs, striking out, and walking at high rates.  Summing up the SO%, BB%, and HR%, the Yankees rank third in baseball in TTO% at 35%.

With the hitters they have, a high TTO% should come as no surprise.  Chase Headley, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Brian McCann at this point in their careers fit the profile, prompting Nick Ashbourne to compare Alex Rodriguez to the legend of Adam Dunn earlier this week.

The team has a league-leading fly ball rate, a conscious strategy as a left-handed heavy lineup playing in Yankee stadium.  As a result they are also sporting a below-average BABIP, but if they keep up their bottom-of-the-barrel line drive percentage, the BABIP should not be expected to rise significantly.

Barring any significant injuries, the Yankees will continue to be a “three true outcome” offense for the remainder of the year.

Lineups

Nearly every team in the league relies on platoons now. For some teams that means bullpens featuring multiple LOOGY’s to face power-hitting lefties, or in the case of the Yankees, two almost completely different lineups for left-handed and right-handed starting pitchers.

While the Yankees can’t claim to start three hitters currently as talented as José Bautista, Edwin Encarnación, and Josh Donaldson, they make up for it somewhat in their versatility in handedness. And as a team of hitters past their prime, the Yankees will take whatever advantages they can get.  Brian Cashman’s kink for “aging men who go both ways” allowed the Yankees to field an opening day lineup featuring three switch-hitters in the heart of the order (Beltrán, Teixeira, and Headley). Beltrán promptly forgot how to hit and was appropriately moved down in the order. But the flexibility of three switch-hitters, a few platoons, and a balanced bench gives Joe Girardi a leg up on opposing managers matchup-wise, allowing him to play percentages and outmaneuver managers in the late innings.

Against right-handed pitchers, the lineup features eight left-handed hitters (discounting rest days). This should serve as a pretty significant advantage against most teams, as the majority of pitchers throw right-handed. They also carry right-handed hitter Chris Young on their bench, who I termed earlier this week a platoon weapon, to counter to any left-handed reliever opposing teams call on late in games.

Splitting Hairs

Based on the handedness of the starting lineups alone, the Yankees were expected to hit much better against right-handed pitchers this year.  But then they laid a major beatdown on lefty and former Cy Young award winner David Price and that got me wondering if this was actually the case.

No! In fact it was the exact opposite of what I expected.  The Yankees are wearing out left-handed pitching.  They have an OPS of well over .800 vs. left handed pitchers and despite hitting a modest 3% better than league average vs. righties, the Yankees are hitting a staggering 32% above league average vs. lefties.  And yes, tagging David Price for eight runs in less than three innings this week helped those numbers, but remember the Yankees got to Clay Buchholz, a righty, for a similar line earlier this season.

The immediate counters to this are that the numbers are skewed by (1) small sample size and (2) the left-handed starters are worse pitchers.  For the first, I refer you back to the top of the article, and for the second, the left-handed starters the Yankees faced seem to be similar in quality to the righties.

RHP: Hutchison, Dickey, Kelly, Buchholz, Gonzalez, Norris, Karns, Odorizzi, Andriese, Simon, Sanchez

LHP: Norris, Miley, Chen, Lobstein, Price

The Yankees bats seemed to perk up since starting this road trip in Baltimore and I’d argue that the right-handed starters they’ve faced since were worse than the lefties.

Accepting for the moment that this massive split difference is not a massive fluke, let’s dive deeper.  As an above average hitting team against both lefties and righties we’d expect the Yankees to be taking advantage of their platoons.  Left-handed hitters should be beating up right-handed pitching and the right-handed hitters should be beating up left-handed pitchers.

Once again, I sit on a throne of lies.  So far, the Yankees have been showing some level of reverse splits against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers.  In right-on-right matchups, they are hitting an otherworldly 88% above league average and in left-on-left matchups, they are at a comparatively boring, yet still crazy, 43% above league average.

Enjoying this great success from reverse splits is tremendous, but the issue that arises here is the small sample size.  These RvR or LvL matchups comprise 29% of the plate appearances the Yankees have taken this year, a sign that Joe Girardi has been succeeding in his effort to exploit platoons.  But the runs produced from these at bats are closer to 35%, an unsustainable disparity.

In 2014, the percentage of reverse split runs and percentage of reverse split plate appearances were almost exactly the same (29.0% and 29.7% respectively).  This RvR and LvL success has likely been fueled by flukishly-high BABIP so far, take A-Rod’s .389 BABIP off righties.  So we should see a drop-off in these number in the coming weeks.

While the BABIP gods smite the Yankees in one area, they should boost the production of another key split.  Of the four pitcher/batter permutations, the Yankees have struggled the most so far as left handed hitters facing right handed pitchers.  52% of Yankee plate appearances so far have been of this variety, yet a BABIP of .244 in these matchups has left them with an OPS 23% below league average and an AVG near the Mendoza line.

As the season goes along and the sample size grows, the Yankees offense should produce at a similar rate, but the production will begin coming from the spots we expected it to come from all along.

Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Images

(If you’ve enjoyed these and would like me to make “Overreactions and Underreactions” a weekly article, or even if you just want to say hi, please comment below)

Orioles

Overreaction: Stability

After losing to the Royals in the playoffs last year, the Orioles front office probably took a vacation together. Maybe they stayed local in Ocean City or Atlantic City, but it was late October so I’d put my money on the Caribbean. Rumor had it, GM Dan Duquette considered buying himself a one-way ticket to Toronto. Wherever they ended up, they must have had a great time because they forgot about their day jobs and spent the entire offseason there.

The only major league free agent contract they signed was a one-year, $2.25M deal to bring back fan-favorite and defensive stalwart, Delmon Young.  Whether through a lack of interest, effort, or available money in free agency, the Orioles entered 2015 counting on pretty much the same cast of characters they’ve had for a few years now: Tillman, Gonzalez, Jimenez, Norris, and Chen in the rotation; Britton, O’Day, Hunter, Matusz, and Gausman, still in the bullpen; Jones, Davis, Pearce, Machado, and Young in the lineup, with Wieters and Hardy due back soon.

Problem is, after this season, all that perceived roster stability gets thrown right out the door.  According to Spotrac, nine of those players I just mentioned are free agents in 2016 and a tenth, Alejandro de Aza, is the current leadoff hitter.  With that many key players hitting free agency in one year, the Orioles roster will look much different ten months from now.

Some teams might have splurged in free agency in an effort to go all in for a World Series this year, but the Orioles took a more methodical approach; I suspect they’ll use this first third of the season to feel things out.  If in June or July they are have a good-sized lead in the division they might try to add a big piece to help make a run come October.  They could also be twelve games out and put all ten of those impending free agents on eBay.  In the most likely scenario, they’ll be hanging around the top of a middling AL East and need to be both buyers and sellers, conscious of both the future and the present.  The Orioles entire roster, save for a few untouchables, will be made available and from this July through to next spring, the roster will undergo massive overhaul

Underreaction: Missing Pieces

I got a little long-winded with my O-verreaction so I’ll try to move things along quickly.  Right now the Orioles are not playing with a full deck, yet they still sit above .500 with a typical Orioles +2 run differential.  JJ Hardy and Matt Wieters are out right now and when healthy, these guys have been very productive Orioles.  Full returns from injury are no guarantee, especially with Wieters’ elbow problems, but if they can, moving Jimmy Paredes / Caleb Joseph and Everth Cabrera into a backup role will help the team tremendously.  PECOTA projects Hardy to hit about 10 TAv points better than Cabrera and Wieters to hit about 20 TAv points better than Paredes or Joseph.

Another missing piece right now is Kevin Gausman and as former BP writer Jonah Keri explains, Gausman may be the best pitcher on the Orioles.  Yet with five veteran starters on the staff, Buck Showalter currently has him stashed in the bullpen. He made 20 starts last year to the tune of a 3.44 FIP and at only 24 years of age, with a growing repertoire, Gausman is expected to improve on that figure this year.  Sooner rather than later, the Orioles will move a starting pitcher to get Gausman into the fold and the AL East should be on alert when that day comes.

Rays

Overreaction: The Sweep

Yes I’m writing for BP Bronx, but no I wouldn’t exactly call myself a Yankee fan…yet…the team is growing on me.  But I must say I was a little disappointed in the sweep for the simple fact that it ruined my 2-1 Yankees series prediction.  I’ll get over it, and the Yankees should give themselves a nice pat on the back, but I think it would be prudent to keep the boastful broomsticks tucked away in the closet for now.  The sweep felt great sure, and seeing A-Rod hit like it was 2007 again was amazing, but for the Rays, this isn’t even their final form.  The team they rolled out this weekend is not the team that will be taking the field come August.

As I laid out in my series preview last Friday, the Rays are ravaged by injuries right now.  Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly were two of the best three starters down the stretch for the Rays last year and this year PECOTA projects both to finish with ERA’s below 3.50 once they return.  Incumbent closer, Jake McGee and swingman Alex Colome are also on the shelf right now.  Matt Moore is recovering from Tommy John surgery and aims to return in the second half.  On offense, John Jaso may be near the end of his career as he’s dealing with severe concussion problems, but Nick Franklin and James Loney are both on the 15-day DL with oblique injuries.  The rotation especially, will look a lot different in a few months.  So take heed when bragging about beating Nate Karns and Matt Andriese and know that the next time the Yankees visit the Trop, the team wearing home whites could be much improved.

Underreaction: Bullpen Issues

In the series preview, I said ” The Rays perennially turn water into wine in the bullpen.”  And while this has been true for many years, that bullpen turned into spoiled milk this weekend.  I will grant you that a three game sample is small, but the issues looked very large.  As mentioned above, Jake McGee is injured and that does not help bullpen depth but the two trouble-spots were two key setup men: Grant Balfour and Ernesto Frieri.

After a few years scaring Bud Black, Mike Scioscia, and his fantasy owners with uncomfortable, high-stress saves, Ernesto Frieri had a year from hell in 2014.  His strikeout-rate dropped, his hit-rate rose, and with it came his ERA.  After posting a 7.34 ERA and blowing a few saves in a part-time closer role, the Angels traded him to the Pirates where he was just as ineffective the rest of the year.  He joined the Rays hoping to return to form and his appearance on Friday was no different than 2014.  So far this year fastball velocity is down about 2.5 mph from where it was in 2013 and he is hanging everything in sight.

Speaking of decreasing fastball velocity, let’s talk about Grant Balfour.  Balfour broke into the league in 2007, quickly establishing his ironic name and excellent fastball. His best year came in 2008, when he posted a 1.58 ERA in nearly 60 innings, throwing a remarkable 91% fastballs and averaging over 95 mph.  Since then, he’s steadily lost velocity, but maintained his success throwing more offspeed pitches each year.  His ERA hovered around 2.50 through 2013.  But in the little over one season since then, his velocity dropped over 4 mph and his ERA has risen up over 6.00.  At 37, it looks like the Australian’s career may be nearing an end and the Rays designated him for assignment on Saturday.  In the coming days we should all order a Foster’s at our favorite pub, and pour some out for one of the most awesome, exciting, and consistent relief pitchers in baseball over the last eight years.

Yankees

Overreaction: Chris Young, Starter

Chris Young has been hitting the cover off the ball and with Belt-less still struggling, fans might start requesting some Alphaville.  Still in shock from A-Rod’s 470-foot home run, we hardly noticed Chris Young’s grand slam off the aforementioned Grant Balfour flew an impressive 424 feet itself.  Chris Young has been a godsend since he arrived in the Bronx last September.  And I’d love to believe that this 100+PA sample of him since he started donning pinstripes is real, but let’s have a look…

Chris Young was always a decent hitter.  His poor average frustrated every manager he ever played for, but he always maintained a sharp eye and a powerful bat keeping his TAv above the mean.  Since he joined the Yankees, he’s kept up his vision and pop…but now he’s hitting for average too?  Yankee Chris Young is the Chris Young the Arizona Diamondbacks believed he would eventually turn into until they couldn’t anymore.  Yankee Chris Young is the guy I hoped would show up when I talked myself into drafting him every year in fantasy baseball.  These are superstar numbers!  Sadly, 102 plate appearances does not a superstar make and for the rest of those season, that average will in all likelihood fall back down towards his career clip of .234.

The important takeaway from his Yankee numbers are that Joe Girardi is deploying him properly.  At 31 years old he isn’t as spry or as excellent a fielder as he once was, two aspects of his game that could keep him in the lineup everyday.  He is a platoon outfielder who mashes lefties.  He’s had a career OPS of .822 against lefties and an OPS of .712 against righties.  So far this year he has a 1.343 OPS against lefties and while this figure is obviously inflated by the small sample, Joe Girardi should continue to take full advantage of Chris Young, platoon weapon.

Underreaction: A-Rod’s Hip Problems

Congratulations on making it this far, you may now collect your prize: this sexy guy.  Also Huzzah! Bet you thought A-Rod would be in overreactions, didn’t you? Nope! Instead I’m going to cheat a little bit and get retrospective.

Flash back about two years.  A-Rod spent the first few months on the disabled list with his second serious hip surgery in four years and a quad strain.  A-Rod and Brian Cashman fired shots at each other daily in the New York media.  They were bickering about the handling of hip rehab and then on August 5th, the day of his 2013 debut, Bud Selig announced A-Rod was to be suspended through the entire 2014 season.  He played out the remainder of 2013 under appeal, finally hanging up his spikes after a meek line of .244/.348/.423 over 44 games.

At that point I thought A-Rod was done, destined to keep cashing those checks while winning the “Worst Contract in Sports” award every year he remained employed.  From a production standpoint he wasn’t Ryan Howard-level awful in 2013, but a 1992 rap album befit his injury problems and he was about to take a year off of baseball at the tender age of 37.  The most exciting thing left for his career was the cage match brewing between him and Cashman upon his return.

Now here we are in 2015, A-Rod has turned heel, he’s being screwed out of awards for his on-field play, and at 39 years old he’s carrying the Yankees.  Sure he’s about to take out Willie Mays’ home run mark and bring a few tears to my eye, but I can’t get enough of A-Rod.  And the best part about his resurgence: it kinda makes sense.  It all goes back to the hip – I believed his hip problems were a sign of his deterioration and that all the surgery in the world couldn’t restore his ability to turn on the inside pitch.  But I think I was mistaken – that hip was a huge issue and a year off really helped it heal.  From what I’ve seen this year and data from before this past weekend, he’s turning on pitches better and from the early statcast data available, A-Rod is hitting the ball harder than any other hitter so far this year.

No, he won’t keep up this .364 BABIP.  No, he probably won’t win the MVP and even if he was deserving there’s no chance in hell Rob Manfred would give it to him.  But for now let’s enjoy this ride and hope his hip stays as healthy as it seems right now.

Sure, Rays vs. Yankees doesn’t hold a candle to the rich history and systemic hatred between Boston and New York.  But in my estimation, the recent narrative for this rivalry has been just as compelling; Rays vs. Yankees is a study in contrasts.  The Rays succeed with a small payroll, nearly no fans, and young, homegrown talent, the Yankees with all the money, all the fans, and every old veteran they could find.

For all the success these two teams had over the past seven years, both now find themselves in transitional periods.  As I outlined in my introductory Bronx BP post, the Yankees are experiencing an inevitable downswing after 20+ years of unparalleled success.  The Rays meanwhile operate like a small business.  This past calendar year, that small business lost their CEO, CFO, and lead engineer: Andrew Friedman, Joe Maddon, and David Price.  Under new management this year, they hope to maintain stability, though years of poor drafting makes their immediate future uncertain.

Friday we get the first taste of this rivalry in 2015 and there’s a whole bunch of new names to familiarize yourself with so buckle up.

Note: all stats from 2014 unless otherwise mentioned (next week I will begin to use 2015 stats)

At the Plate

Yankees Lineup

Hey, there’s that offense we were all looking for!  The bats finally perked up last Sunday and during the series in Baltimore.  I told you it wasn’t the end of the world.  We saw an A-Bomb, a few Tex-messages, and Stephen Drew going all STEPHEN DREW on the way to 14, 6, 3, and 5 runs over the last four games.  But there’s still room for improvement and a few offensive issues in need of some attention.

• Carlos Beltrán? Still asleep.  Somebody needs to wake that fool up.
• Score some runs early! The Yankees have been playing behind in almost every game and their starters might feel more comfortable pitching with a lead.
• What the hell is the Yankees batting order?  The lineup looks different every day and yes there are a lot of old guys that need days off.  But as an example of the inconsistency, A-Rod has hit everywhere between 2nd and 7th this year.  Joe Girardi is still tinkering and dealing with injuries but it’d be a good thing if he came out of the weekend with a better idea of his daily lineup.

X-Factor: Brett Gardner

First things first, let’s make sure he’s healthy.  Seeing Gardner play all weekend would be a positive for the Yankees.  Secondly, his offensive and defensive skills translate the best to Tropicana field (as do Ellsbury’s but I chose Brett), with lots of space in the outfield.  If his wrist is at full strength, there could be some extra-base hits and web gems in store from him this weekend.

Yankees Bench

The positives: Chris Young is still crushing the ball.  He’s a weapon off the bench and when he gets starts against lefties, though they see none this weekend.  Jack Ryan James Ryan John Ryan Murphy looks like he could be a great defensive catcher.  He’s eviscerated the running game when he’s behind the dish and sooner or later we’ll have to check in on his framing stats.

The negatives: Gregorio Petit – he’s hitting .182 and making errors.  The only thing going for him is he plays multiple positions but it remains to be seen how much longer that will keep him on the team.  Garrett Jones is a DH-type on a team with 3 other DH-types.  His experiment in the outfield last weekend didn’t go very well and Mark Teixeira has first base locked down.

Rays Scheduled Starters

Jake Odorizzi is the ace of my fantasy baseball team so far, has a nasty split-change, and will be a handful for the Yankees to hit on Saturday.  According to the Baseball Prospectus Annual, Nate Karns has some good raw stuff but lacks command.  He got touched up for 8 runs in his first two starts and has already walked 6 on the year.  Two of Matt Andriese’s best comparables are old friends David Phelps and Adam Warren so that gives you a good idea of what to expect from him.  Best case scenario he ends up a fifth starter but more likely has a career bouncing around as a swingman.

The Rays are dealing with a number of injuries in their rotation right now and that’s why two of these starters look unfamiliar.  Matt Moore had Tommy John surgery last summer and is expected back late this year.  Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly are recovering from smaller injuries of their own and could be back soon.  So I wouldn’t put too much credence into how the Yankees hit against Karns or Andriese.  It’s the first time facing either and one or both may be out of the rotation the next time they face the Yankees.

Rays Bullpen

The Rays perennially turn water into wine in the bullpen.  Brad Boxberger is like the 25th great reliever who got his start in San Diego.  Grant Balfour continues to spit fire while spitting fire.  Beliveau is a pretty decent second lefty in a bullpen, but with incumbent closer and main lefty Jake McGee injured right now, he’s shouldering a bigger load than usual.  Kevin Jepsen is a setup man extraordinaire who took his talents from Los Angeles to Tampa this offseason.  Frieri is on his second change-of-scenery stop and trying to remember how to pitch after forgetting last year, but so far it’s not going great.  Knowing the Rays this will probably turn out to be a great bullpen but early in the season without Jake McGee they could be vulnerable.  They also don’t create many matchup problems, dressing only one left-handed pitcher, while the Yankees start eight lefty hitters.

What I’ll be Looking for

The Yankees broke out last Sunday night against the Red Sox and hit pretty well in their three games with the Orioles.  I already mentioned they need to score early in the game, but another key for the Yankees will be plating runs without the longball.  Tropicana is a notoriously large field and the team shouldn’t count on well-timed, multi-run home runs to carry the offense all year.  The Yankees would do well to manufacture some baserunners, improve their approach with men in scoring position, and create more run-scoring opportunities overall.

 In the Field

Yankees Scheduled Starters

We’re nearly two turns through the Yankees rotation and so far I’d give it about a B-.  Though he doesn’t look like he used to, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Pineda through two starts.  Tanaka’s first start was rough and in the second start he was pitching with a giant lead.  I wouldn’t glean a whole lot from either and foresee a good old-fashioned duel between him and Odorizzi on Saturday.  Adam Warren pitched the 19-inning hangover game and threw pretty well, but nobody was actually paying attention.  This weekend he’ll have an actual major league lineup behind him which might give him a better shot to win and catch our collective eye.

Yankees Bullpen

The bullpen is the anchor for this team, but the problem entering Wednesday was getting a lead to hand off to the bullpen.  Which made it all the more sad/hilarious when the Yankees finally got that lead for the bullpen on Wednesday and…they went full Ricky Bobby on it.  But this is why we can’t have nice things.  Apart from that outing and the 19-inning game, the bullpen has been as good as advertised.  Latin pop superstar Esmil Rogers is my bullpen MVP for finishing the marathon game well after A-Rod’s bedtime.  Miller has been great and Betances a little shaky so for now, the closer-by-committee is on hold.  But I hold out hope that Girardi will return to the original plan once Betances figures out his release point.  Overall though, this bullpen can matchup with any lineup and the Rays are no different.

Rays Lineup

Rays lineups always have a certain peculiarity to them, but this one feels even more Rays-y than usual.  It has an unconventional leadoff hitter, a guy who hit .229 last year in the 3-hole, and a slightly younger version of Jose Molina hitting ninth.  The rest of the lineup is filled with Evan Longoria and some interesting young talent.  And…umm…Logan Forsythe?  Playing in Tropicana field, the Rays put a premium on defense so many of these players are valued more for their glove than their bat.  That said, they can also be pretty pesky; Asdrubal Cabrera is annoyingly good at hitting sometimes, David DeJesus always seem to get on base, and Desmond Jennings is a pest when he does get on.  The Rays want to play low-scoring games and their offense reflects that fact.

X-Factor: Steven Souza

The dude has been hitting some massive bombs.  Enough said.

Rays Bench

Nothing special on the bench.  Bobby Wilson is a defense-first catcher.  Tim Beckham is on the roster to prove once and for all that he is the draft bust everyone thinks he is.  Brandon Guyer and Mikie Mahtook are pretty solid all-around extra outfielders, a fixture on every Rays roster.  Mikie Mahtook has also taken his spot atop my “Current Favorite Big League Name List” because Chasen Shreve was disqualified upon his demotion to the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (NYY AAA team).

What I’ll be Looking for

Joe Maddon caused quite a ruckus this offseason; he joined the Cubs and might have accidentally created a groundswirl of hope for their fans.  Acquiring one of the best tacticians and player managers was a franchise-transforming move for Chicago.  On the flip side of that coin, the Rays lost one of the best managers in the game and replaced him with former Indians bullpen coach, Kevin Cash.  The Rays are one of the smartest organizations around so I wouldn’t doubt that this was a good hire.  But this weekend we’ll get our first taste of the other Cash-man in the Rays dugout and a good chance to see what’s in store during his tenure.

Prediction

I think the Yankees take this series 2-1.  They’ll be facing two of the weakest links in the Rays rotation (Karns and Andriese) and should be able to get a few wins down in the Penis of America.  In case you were wondering, so far I’m batting 1.000 on my series predictions so you can take this one to the bank, Las Vegas, or wherever you prefer they print your money.

Three and a half years later, it’s safe to say things didn’t go according to plan on either side. Montero played promisingly in 2012, hitting .260 with 15 home runs and 61 RBI’s. Since then he’s split his time between the big league club, the minors, the disabled list, and 50 games on Bud Selig’s naughty list for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal. From the Yankees perspective the trade looked even worse as recently as last spring. Pineda missed all of 2012 and 2013 with right shoulder injuries and came into camp last year as a complete mystery. He again spent a good chunk of last year on the shelf with more shoulder injuries and serving a minor suspension for some tomfoolery (the pine tar incidents), but he managed to pitch 76 innings with a 1.89 ERA.

If each player retired on the spot today, we might call this one a draw. But as far as I’ve heard that’s not happening and the Yankees look poised to win the trade over the long haul. Michael Pineda showed a lot of promise last year and is healthy for the moment, while Jesús Montero can’t rid himself of the “AAAA” label on his bat.

Two starts into 2014 and nearing the 100-inning plateau in pinstripes, it seems like as good a time as any to evaluate Michael Pineda. We’ve seen enough from him since his shoulder injuries to get a good idea what type of pitcher he will be as a Yankee. For better or worse, he is not the same guy he was that first summer in Seattle.  So let’s take a trip down memory lane. The year: 2011, the city: Seattle, the music: fitting.

Note: the data included is from Brooks Baseball, a partner of Baseball Prospectus.

Mariner Mike: A Two-Pitch Power Arm

When he broke into the league in 2011 with the Mariners, Michael Pineda pitched like a typical 22-year-old; he relied on what had gotten him there. For Pineda specifically, this meant throwing his fastball and slider, two dominant pitches, almost 95% of the time. He rode these two pitches to a breakout first half (8-5 with a 2.58 ERA on July 4th) and an all-star nod as a rookie.

In Seattle, the four-seam fastball was Pineda’s favorite pitch.  His fastball had great velocity and great tailing movement (in to a righty).  He could throw it in any count against right-handed or left-handed hitters and the subtle, late run on the pitch prevented hitters from squaring it up. Pineda moved it up and down, in and out, ringing up strikeouts and using it to set up his other main offering, the slider.

His hard slider was filthy, especially paired with 95 mph heat at the belt. Batters were flailing all year at the pitch, and for good reason.  It too had fantastic late movement, diving at the foot of left-handed hitters and off the table for right-handed hitters. Batters whiffed at Pineda’s slider an absurd 20% of the time he threw it in 2011. The fastball and slider were his bread and butter, his pasta and marinara, his baa-gel and cream cheese.

Pineda also very occasionally used a changeup to keep hitters honest, though throwing it only 6% of the time kept them about as honest as a Bluth. And the sinkers that PITCHf/x thought it tracked may have just been wild fourseam fastballs, recording only 23 of them all year. I couldn’t locate video of either pitch back then so we’ll have to believe that at best, the changeup was a work in progress.

Relying so heavily on two pitches, no matter how great they are, is a strategy usually reserved for relief pitchers who see only a part of a lineup each game. As a rookie, teams were facing Pineda for the first time and he shoved the fastball-slider combo down their throats, but in the second half he began to struggle. Some combination of better scouting reports, a lack of a third pitch, and general fatigue caught up with Mariner Mike and his ERA jumped up one whole run the last two months of the year.

That being said, there was a lot of promise and strikeout-potential in his young arm, enough to convince the Yankees to acquire him.

2014 Yankee Mike: Less Power, More Refinement

One of the first things I noticed when I saw Pineda pitch his first game in New York last year was how different his stuff looked from what I remembered. In my mind he was a huge dude with a blazing fastball. And he was still a huge dude but the fastball had lost some of its oomph. He was being a lot more precise with his pitches and…wait…was that a cutter?

Mariner Mike reminded me of Joel Zumaya or Fernando Rodney but Yankee Mike reminded me of a much, much larger Dan Haren. Had Michael Pineda become Dan in real life? Had he changed as much as I thought?

Yes! His fastball underwent a sea change during the three years it took him to get on the mound for the Yankees. He no longer threw as hard, didn’t throw his fastball as much, lost almost all of the horizontal run, and his fastball was dropping more than it ever had. Everything about the pitch had fundamentally changed. He became more precise, throwing 3% more strikes with his fastball last year than in 2011 though he wasn’t having as much success with a falling whiff rate. Depending on the situation, Pineda will sometimes even cut his fastball now, something he couldn’t dream of doing in Seattle.

Pineda’s slider in 2014 might have been even filthier than it was back in his Seattle days. He has managed to maintain the velocity right around 85 mph and increased both the drop and sweep on the pitch. His slider is an improved weapon and last year Pineda’s catchers called the pitch nearly 35% of the time. Though the whiff percentage on the pitch has dropped a bit down to 17%, this is likely due to the smaller gap between the fastball and slider velocity.

Despite the numbers in this chart that would suggest otherwise, the changeup has been one of the biggest changes for Michael Pineda since he’s returned to the mound. Last year, before getting suspended and hurt in the middle part of 2014 his changeup was finally becoming a legitimate offering for him. While the movement is no different than it was in Seattle, his confidence in the pitch is growing and this season the trend has continued. Through two starts in 2015 the changeup has been his best pitch.  He’s now throwing changeups almost 15% of the time and getting whiffs over 25% of the time.

What Happened?

The obvious question that this analysis elicits is WTF? Why the Face?  How did Seattle Mike become Yankee Mike? Where did this big drop in velocity come from?  And the answer is pretty equally clear: his shoulder. Pineda has suffered an extraordinary amount of injuries to his pitching shoulder in his young career and is now three years removed on his only completely healthy season. A combination of a chronically injured shoulder and the normal velocity drop that happens as pitchers age is the likely culprit for that velocity drop.

More interesting to me is the change in movement on Pineda’s fastball and slider. I suspect it also relates to his shoulder issues but in a more roundabout way.

It’s pretty well known that arm angles and release points help determine the trajectory of pitches. A pitcher who throws sidearm will naturally have a lot of run on a fastball and a frisbee-like slider (see Brad Ziegler or Pat Neshek). Similarly in order to throw a perfect 12-6 curveball a pitcher needs to throw more-or-less over the top.

Michael Pineda nearly eliminated the run on his fastball, adding the ability to throw a near-cutter and added a lot of horizontal movement on his slider the same way. I suspected that this change came as a result of a more over the top motion and vertical release point. Thanks to one of the coolest features of Brooks Baseball, I was able to put my hypothesis to the test.

Since coming to the Yankees and recovering from shoulder injuries, Pineda’s release point changed quite drastically. He now throws nearly a quarter of a foot more overhead and similarly closer to the body, most likely to relieve some stress he naturally put on his shoulder from his old arm slot. This change in release point could very well explain the change in movement we’ve seen on his pitches with the Yankees.

The Outlook

Yankee Mike is a much smarter pitcher than Mariner Mike. This at-bat with Chris Davis from his start on April 13th shows he’s mixing up his offerings better and using more creativity to make up for a loss in fastball velocity. Whether his newfound refinement is an improvement on his “here try to hit this” Seattle style remains to be seen, as does his health. But it is clear that he will be a key player for the Yankees in 2015 and if he keeps improving can be the best pitcher on the team.

What are we making too big a deal of and what might be flying under our radar?  I’m calling it overreactions and underreactions.  We’ll go through the two divisional opponents the Yankees faced this week then take a closer look at the Yankees.

Blue Jays

Overreaction: Pitching Depth

On the surface the Blue Jays have the makings of a good, deep pitching staff.  R.A. Dickey has a Cy Young, Mark Buehrle is indestructible, and Norris, Hutchison, and Aaron Sanchez are all under 25 with immediate upside.  Per an article by Jeff Long on the main BP site, they have the longest tenured bullpen in the majors, while youngsters Roberto Osuna and Miguel Castro looked terrific during the opening week.  The rotation and bullpen both contain a balance of talent and stability common to many great pitching staffs.  From the first series alone you might think the Blue Jays will be a force to be reckoned with this year on the mound.

But before we send the 2015 AL East banner across the border, there are a few things worth mentioning.  First, the Yankees are not a very good offensive team and we shouldn’t judge any pitching staff based on the extent to which they can shut 37-year-old Carlos Beltrán and the like down.  The Orioles scored five, seven, and seven runs on them in their weekend series, a better sign of their true talent level.  Secondly, the Marcus Stroman injury will really hurt the team this year. Aaron Sanchez was moved to the rotation as his de facto replacement and PECOTA projects the dropoff to be significant. Stroman’s projected ERA of 3.35 easily trumps Sanchez’s projected ERA of 5.48 over a similar number of innings.  Moving Sanchez also took him out of consideration for being used in the closer role, which Brett Cecil relinquished to Castro in short order.

Underreaction: Lineup Depth

Nobody questions the idea that the top half of the Blue Jays lineup may be the best in the AL East, or even the entire AL.  On opening day, they started five all-stars at the top of the order: Jose Reyes, Russell Martin, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson.  Everyone knows that these guys will combine to be good and, if everyone stays healthy, they have the potential to be great.

Unsurprisingly, through one week of play, the Blue Jays lead the AL East in runs and are sixth in all of baseball.  The scary thing is that 1-5, the Blue Jays have been underperforming.  Bautista, Martin, and Donaldson are all hitting below .250.  The thorns in the side of the Yankees during the opening series weren’t Reyes and Bautista, they were Devon Travis and Kevin Pillar.  The bottom of the Blue Jays lineup looks to be improved significantly this year and that should scare teams. PECOTA projects Travis and Pillar to be around average offensive producers this year, a step up from the dead spots we used to see in the lineups of Blue Jays teams past. Dalton Pompey showed flashes as well this week, although John Gibbons would be wise to stop batting him in the two-hole.

Red Sox

Overreaction: Best Pitching in the AL East

Trust me, this sounded a lot better before the Yankees busted out the boomsticks on Sunday night so let’s pretend momentarily that that did not occur and we could restore that mindset we had Saturday afternoon.  The Yankees were fresh off two losses in a span of 18 hours and the Red Sox were leading the AL East at 4-1.  Through one turn of the rotation, the Red Sox had four different Cy Young candidates.  A direct quote in my series preview was “Kelly and Miley are…subpar” and yet the Yankees scratched together a mere three runs against them in games 1 and 2.  Sure they knocked around Alexi Ogando a bit while the game was out of hand, but chances are the dial on your panic meter was moving upwards.

Clay Buchholz did a lot to quell this panic Sunday night but it bears repeating, the Red Sox will not be winning because of their pitching this year.  In 2009, a week of pitching dominance against the Yankees and the Phillies would be a big deal, but in 2015, it doesn’t mean nearly as much.  Look for matchups with the Nationals and Orioles next to pump up those ERA’s and make fans a little uneasy up in Boston.

Underreaction: Regression towards the Mean

I’m sure you heard this only a million times this offseason, but the Red Sox were the first MLB team to ever go from last to first to last in a span of three seasons.  Needless to say, they’ve had extremely high variance results recently. 71 wins was probably a 10th percentile result for the Red Sox in 2014. A cause of that futility was a number of players who played well below expectations. Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Johnny Gomes, Daniel Nava, and Will Middlebrooks all had horrible seasons.

Yes, the biggest stories in Beantown this offseason were the signings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. And yes, replacing Gomes and Middlebrooks with these two will help the club tremendously. But I would argue more important to the success of the Red Sox in 2015, and something that caught my eye more this first week were improved performances from those who disappointed. Some like Pedroia and Napoli will be healthier than last year. Xander Bogaerts and Daniel Nava look a lot more comfortable at the plate. Clay Buchholz will probably end up somewhere between his first and second start.  But if the Red Sox can, and I suspect they will, get the 50th-70th percentile results from guys who had 20th percentile seasons last year, they will be a much improved club.

Yankees

Overreaction: Banjo Hitting

Yet another overreaction ruined by that Sunday night stomping.  Most of the concern through one week of Yankees baseball has to do with their ability or lack thereof to hit the baseball. Continuing with the Drew family tradition, poor play is causing people to call for Stephen’s head. Carlos Beltrán resembles a corpse so far, the bottom half of the lineup has looked punchless, and for a while on Friday night it seemed the Yankees were never going to score again. As my colleague Andrew Mearns pointed out, through 5 games, the Yankees had an abominable line of .193/.280/.342 with a 78 wRC+. They deserved every slur I’m sure fans were hurling their way.

But look what happened Sunday night; they broke out in a big way. And no I don’t expect them to bang out 16 hits and 14 runs every game but mediocrity? I think we can put up with that. For context last year the Padres had the worst offense in baseball and hit .226/.292/.342 with a 82 wRC+.  Beware of small sample size is an overused warning but for 5 or 6 games of baseball I feel it’s appropriate and the Yankees offensive production will probably end up looking a lot less like the first five games and a lot closer to last year’s line of .245/.307/.380 with a 92 wRC+.

Minor Overreactions

• Tanaka is hurt: We covered this last week.
• But they’re only 2-4: For those who point to the Yankees record of 2-4 and say boo, take a quick look at some of the other teams the same record: LAA, PIT, WSH, CLE, CHW.  And at the top of the league ATL (4-1), COL (4-2), and CIN (4-2) are all teams expected to compete for the worst record in the league.  One week doesn’t mean we should lose site of the bigger picture.
• Player X needs to go: Check out Andrew’s article where he used whipping boy Stephen Drew as an example.

Underreaction: Stupid Little Things

During the FOX broadcast of the Saturday afternoon game they showed at least a 30-second montage of Yankee defensive misplays and errors.  It would have been an impressive collection of screw-ups for an entire week of baseball, but the Yankees accomplished it in one day. Unfortunately I couldn’t find the video online to dub Yakety Sax over but I found a few clips for your amusement.

• A-Rod can’t catch
• Garrett Jones can’t catch
• “Stolen Base”

Of these, only the A-Rod one was recorded as an error, but the team finished with three errors altogether, so you know that was just a sampler. Defensive misplays, errors, pickoffs, caught stealings, these stupid little things are commonplace among this team right now. For a team that envisions fighting for a playoff spot, this needs to be cleaned up. Last Friday Nick Ashbourne wrote a GIF-tastic article about all the baserunning blunders the Yankees had through one series. Well I turned the game on Friday in the fourth inning and the first play I saw was Chase Headley getting picked off and I joked that he’ll have to make it a weekly feature. Later in the game, tied in the 17th inning, with one out Brett Gardner got picked off again.  There were 132 pickoffs in all of baseball last year and the Yankees got picked off twice in the same game, a game that was won in the 19th inning by one run.

In a vacuum one pickoff won’t be the difference between being in or out of the playoffs.  But if the baserunning and defense continues to be this collectively porous, it’s entirely possible the Yankees will or might have already lost a game or two because of these fixable issues.

Minor Underreactions

• CC’s return: In his first start back, CC didn’t get the results he deserved, but he pitched very well.  Hold some cautious optimism that this continues.
• Weak bench:  The difference between the Yankees and Red Sox benches were pretty stark as indicated by the starting lineups the day after playing 19 innings.  The Yankees don’t have much versatility, thump, or experience on their bench beyond Chris Young.

1) Both teams must be in the same division. More games and the same goal: a division title.

2) Both teams must be good.  Nobody cares about two bad teams or when the outcome is predetermined.

3) The teams must hate eachother.  Drama, fighting, trash-talking, we love it all – it draws us in and forces even the most objective observers to pick sides.

The Yankees-Red Sox highlights of the last few years amount to Ryan Dempster throwing at soon-to-be-suspended A-Rod and Michael Pineda lathering himself in pine tar, twice.  Sorry, but that just doesn’t cut it for me.  I miss Pedro throwing down Don Zimmer, A-Rod feigning innocence after punching the ball out of Bronson Arroyo’s glove, the Boone homer, and those four days in October.  We were treated to an amazing decade of the best rivalry in baseball, but right now Yankees-Red Sox just doesn’t mean as much as it used to.

I trace the last day with the belt to September 28, 2011.   Final day of the season – game 162.  That Wednesday evening, with the division clinched, the Yankees found themselves up six runs on the Rays in the sixth inning when Joe Girardi looked up at the Tropicana Field scoreboard.  He noticed the Orioles were beating the Red Sox and knew a Red Sox loss coupled with a Rays win meant the Red Sox, who had held a 9-game lead in the wild card race in early September, would be knocked out of the playoffs.  The Yankees threw the game blew the six-run lead, then in extra innings the Rays walked off into the playoffs, completing one of the greatest nights in baseball history  and igniting the dumpster fire that was the 2011 Boston Red Sox offseason.

These might be high hopes this year but I want that rivalry back – baseball is better off when every Yankees – Red Sox game is must-see TV.  The season series starts this weekend in New York and here’s to hoping it starts out on the right foot.

(If you were wondering the current holders of the Belt are the Giants and Dodgers. Yes, I’m biased as a Giants fan but it fits all the criteria and if you don’t wish an umpire hadn’t gotten in the way of this then I calmly request you stop reading.)

Note: all stats from 2014 unless otherwise mentioned

At the Plate

Yankees Lineup

So far, the Yankees lineup has been about as strong as I assume a Fruity Fairy cocktail is.  But hey at least they aren’t the one-run Twins!  They aren’t as feeble as they’ve looked through three games, but don’t expect the Yankees to win many games 10-8 this year.  And with the lineup the Red Sox bought themselves this offseason, New York will need to hit more to keep pace in the series.

X-Factor: Brian McCann

In Wade Miley and Joe Kelly, the Red Sox are throwing two pitchers who have a >50% ground-ball rate and rely on double plays to get them out of the jams their high WHIPs create.  McCann can be susceptible to a double play, bouncing into 16 of them last year.  If the batters ahead of them are doing their job to get on base, he’ll need to keep the ball in the air, on a line, or down for a bunt to avoid those rally-killing double plays.

Yankees Bench

With a few switch hitters and platoons at a few positions, the Yankees have the ability to get matchup advantages whenever they want.  Against right-handed pitchers they start eight lefties, and against left-hander Daniel Norris on Thursday they started seven righties.  The Yankees will see a pretty even mix of both this series as the Red Sox holster three left-handed relievers in the bullpen and Wade Miley as a starter.  If Girardi sees an opportunity to create a favorable matchup late, pinch-hitting could be an X-factor for the Yankees this series.

Red Sox Scheduled Starters

When all the moving and shaking was over this offseason, the Red Sox found themselves with a bunch of 3/4-starters.  Of Porcello, Miley, Bucholz, Masterson, and Kelly, Clay Buchholz was the only one who has really sniffed being an ace and in the larger context of his career that 2013 season looks like an outlier.  But the Red Sox are not built to win with their rotation and it’s entirely possible neither Kelly or Miley is in the rotation come August.  As an avid follower of the NL and NL West, Kelly and Miley are…subpar.  Both have a tendency to rack up a pitch count so having good at bats the first time through the order will be key for the Yankees.  Clay Buchholz threw great in his first start, but that was against the Phillies who…well…look at their lineup if you’re having a bad day.  I’m anxious to see whether he can put together another quality outing against a major league team.  If he can, Red Sox nation will start believing 2013 Buchholz wasn’t only just a dream.

Red Sox Bullpen

As mentioned earlier one of the strengths of the Red Sox bullpen is that they have a near-even mix of righties and lefties.  At the back of the bullpen though, things could become unsettled if the Yankees press the right buttons.  Mujica played the part of closer in St. Louis before they realized they had Trevor Rosenthal but with the injury to Koji Uehara, he will be back in the saddle for the near future.  Tazawa has been reliable and until last year, Breslow had been as well.  The flaws of the bullpen mirror the flaws of the rotation; lack of top flight talent and a lot of guys who would be better off pitching in the 6th or 7th inning rather than the 8th or 9th.

What I’ll be looking for:

The Yankees have struggled to find their niche.  Hutchison throws hard, R.A. Dickey slings poo, and they were baffled by the young lefty Daniel Norris for a while.  In this series they see a new brand of pitcher, and they see it three times in a row.  Miley, Kelly, and Buchholz all throw a similar mix of pitches at pretty similar velocities (Kelly throws his fastball a little harder than the others).  We haven’t seen them face one yet but if the Yankees like hitting off a low-90’s fastball with a bit of sink, the bats could wake up and stay awake for the whole series.

 In the Field

Yankees Scheduled Starters

I’m a huge fan of Eovaldi and can’t wait to see him in pinstripes.  No matter the results, he’s a fun pitcher to watch.  He has a huge fastball that can either make hitters look silly or get hit a long way.  He reminds me a lot of young Andrew Cashner who also throws hard but doesn’t rack up as many strikeouts as you’d expect.  Warren won the fifth spot in the rotation with a good spring, beating out perennial swingman Esmil Rogers and Saturday will be his fourth-ever big league start.  He’s trying to become one of the rare guys to transition from relief to the rotation rather than vice versa.  And as for Tanaka, if you haven’t already, I invite you to check out my article on him from earlier this week.  He pitched well at times on opening day but would do well to avoid the big inning this Sunday.

Yankees Bullpen

I liken a closer-by-committee situation to an open marriage.  Do either ever work?  To quote the world’s first analrapist, Dr. Tobias Fünke, “No it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but … But it might work for us.”  It might work for us yet! I am 100% in on the closer by committee!  I want the 2015 Yankees to be the exception to every other closer-by-committee to ever exist.  Girardi has two talented closer-types and right now he’s not trying to force them to conform to be a setup man or closer, he’s planning to turn the two into a two-headed closing juggernaut and it’s great.  In the late innings with a lead and a lot of lefties due up, go to Miller, if it’s all righties, go to Betances.  It’s not that hard, other managers!  First things first, let’s focus on getting to the late innings with a lead.  That should be step one.  I’ll also note that like the Red Sox, the Yankees bullpen employs three lefties.  The Red Sox lineup though is pretty righty-heavy so they likely won’t be called upon solely to deal with left-handed hitters.  For future series though this many lefites could be a boon in the late innings.

Red Sox Lineup

Moses’ lineup.  Supposed to bring the Red Sox to the promised land.  This offseason they acquired every hitter they could think of and decided to figure out the rest of their team later.  Not a bad idea because teams with great offenses tend to do pretty well during the regular season and there will be pitching available at the deadline.  I think all teams should be worried about facing this lineup; if everyone hits up to expectations or potential this will be top-tier offense all year long.  It’s not only a talented lineup, it’s a diverse lineup.  Betts provides speed, Pedroia and Sandoval will put the ball in play, Hanley, Papi, and Napoli provide most of the pop and their 7-9 hitters are better than most other 7-9 hitters.

X-Factor: Xander Bogaerts

Obviously his name starts with X so there’s that.  But he could be on the verge of a breakout season and if he is getting on base from the 9-hole the lineup can seem endless.  Get him out so there aren’t men on base when the order flips.

Red Sox Bench

Allen Craig is a mystery.  He had a great few years where he showed legitimate power and the Cardinals signed him to an extension.  The next year he got by with diminished power due to a huge season with RISP making people think he was inherently clutch.  Last year he lost that RISP magic and had an all-around horrible year.  This year we might definitively be able to answer “Who is Allen Craig?”  He’s likely their go-to right handed pinch-hitter for now while Nava should come off the bench from the left side.  Holt is a super-utility guy and Sandy Leon sounds more like the name of a beach than a baseball player to me.

What I’ll be looking for:

Cluster Luck.  The Red Sox are going to get hits, that’s unavoidable — there’s talent up and down their lineup.  When those hits come and how much they hurt will be the mitigating factor for Yankees pitchers.  If they scatter 10 singles and doubles evenly over 9 innings, the Yankees will have a shot.  If they start to string those hits together and start putting crooked numbers up, it could be a long series.

Prediction

Boston wins series 2-1.  Too much hitting for the Yankees to keep up with.  I think the Yankees tee off on Joe Kelly on Saturday but the Red Sox hit too much for them the rest of the series.  Also I miss you Pablo.  We will always love you in SF.