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Masahiro Tanaka Has Changed From Michael Pineda to Nathan Eovaldi

On the surface, Masahiro Tanaka appears to be the same player this year that he’s always been. If you like to judge by results, which is arguably the most important factor in an athlete’s stat line, it checks out — his ERA is 3.01, which isn’t far off of his career 3.12 mark. He’s been the best starting pitcher on the Yankees this season, a distinction he held in his first two campaigns with the club as well. He’s also sporting his patented brand of control, walking just 1.64 batters per nine innings (career 1.53 BB/9).

However, that’s where the similarities end. Tanaka actually has been a remarkably different pitcher this year than in his first two seasons, so much so that he’s just about impossible to recognize from his stat line.

Tanaka K/9 HR/9 GB%
2014-15 8.68 1.24 46.8
2016 6.84 0.73 51.7

 

His strikeouts have fallen off of a cliff, but so have the home runs allowed. The home run prevention has likely been caused by a major uptick in groundball percentage, which has jumped up to a rather elite 51.7 percent. He’s so drastically different in approach that, to put it another way, he’s transformed from Michael Pineda into Nathan Eovaldi. Take a look for yourself:

K/9 HR/9 GB%
Tanaka (2014-15) 8.68 1.24 46.8
Pineda (2014-16) 8.74 1.12 44.9
Tanaka (2016) 6.84 0.73 51.7
Eovaldi (2014-16) 6.88 0.84 48.7

 

In fact, I took the strikeout, home run, and groundball rates from what I’m going to call “old Tanaka” (2014-15) and “new Tanaka” (2016), and found the five most comparable pitchers besides Pineda/Eovaldi, using numbers from 2014-16.

K/9 HR/9 GB%
“old Tanaka” 8.68 1.24 46.8
Trevor Bauer 8.43 1.00 40.0
Taijuan Walker 8.34 1.35 41.1
Colin McHugh 8.22 0.88 44.2
Cole Hamels 8.90 0.89 47.8
Matt Harvey 8.42 0.85 43.8

 

“new Tanaka” 6.84 0.73 51.7
Kyle Gibson 5.98 0.76 53.9
Edinson Volquez 6.78 0.80 49.1
Sonny Gray 7.39 0.77 54.4
Kyle Hendricks 7.62 0.73 50.9
Yovani Gallardo 6.31 0.87 49.0

 

Do you notice a pattern? All of the pitchers in the first group, with maybe the exception of Cole Hamels, are known for their frequent deployment of four-seam fastballs up in the zone. That makes intuitive sense when looking at their high strikeout rates, high home run rates, and low groundball rates. All of the pitchers in the second group are known for utilizing sinkers down in the zone, and of course their K/9, HR/9 and GB% react accordingly. (Note: neither table includes walk rate, and Tanaka’s stellar command is what separates him, in terms of skill level, from many of the other pitchers listed.)

So that begs the next question — how did Tanaka jump from the first group to the second group? Looking at his pitch selection, we find the answer to be quite convenient. According to Pitch F/X’s pitch classification system, Tanaka threw four-seam fastballs 19.4 percent of the time and two-seam fastballs just 16.3 percent in 2015. This season, he’s bumped his two-seam fastball percentage up to 24.8 percent, while he has almost completely stopped throwing four-seam fastballs altogether, using them just 2.5 percent of the time, or one out of every 40 pitches. Another interesting thing to note is that his fastball velocity has dropped dramatically from last year to this year, going from 91.8 to 90.2 mph. However, there likely isn’t much to be concerned about, as the velocities on both of his pitches have remained constant. Instead, Tanaka just throws his sinker 1.5 mph slower than his four-seamer, and he has simply stopped throwing the four-seam.

In other words, the reason that “old Tanaka” is in the first group and “new Tanaka’ is in the second is, well, because that’s exactly where he belongs. Just as importantly, which version is better? By FIP, “new Tanaka” is much better, as the drastic reduction in gopherballs more than compensates for the lack of strikeouts. However, Tanaka is also enjoying a career-low HR/FB%, and this year’s version is deemed worse by cFIP.

Either way, this new version of Masahiro Tanaka may be very different, but the bottom line is still thankfully the same — he remains a quality pitcher in this league, and that’s all that matters to the Yankees so in need of that production.

 

Photo: Nick Turchiaro / USA Today Sports

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1 comment on “Masahiro Tanaka Has Changed From Michael Pineda to Nathan Eovaldi”

Mike Bradbury

Wow, I’m surprised the numbers are as close as they are. Lets not be distracted though, he’s far from the same pitcher in terms of being dominant. He has the occasional good outing, but nobody is afraid to face him.
That’s a BIG change. ;)

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