The Yankee offense hasn’t been anything to write home about this season. They currently rank next-to-last in the American League in runs scored, only ahead of the lowly Minnesota Twins. By wRC+ they are actually worse, dead last in the AL and one of the most anemic offenses in the league.
If there’s been a bright spot though, it’s come in the form of Carlos Beltran. Through a little more than a quarter of the season, Beltran has 12 home runs, nearly twice as many as anyone else on the team. This is no small feat for the 39-year-old, as it took him until August 15th to reach as many homers last year. If he were to keep up his current pace, he’d clear the 40 home run marker for the second time in his career, and first time in a decade.
While Beltran has certainly still proven competent with the bat over the past few seasons, this late-career power surge is certainly a bit of a surprise. But how sustainable is it? Let’s take a look at what he’s doing differently this year and try to figure it out.
Plate Discipline and Batted-Ball Profile
Earlier this spring I took a look at Alex Rodriguez’s chances of breaking the all-time home run record (update: not looking great). In it, I say that the only real chance he might have is if he goes the Raul Ibanez route and sells out for power. His walk rate would tank and strikeout rate balloon, but that might just help him run into a few more taters, the way it did for Ibanez in 2013. At first glance, it appears that perhaps Beltran is the one who adopted that approach.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| BB% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
| K% | 15.0% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 21.6% |
| HR/FB | 12.5% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 20.0% |
Beltran is striking out more and walking less than he has at any other point in his career. Perhaps causally, perhaps not, his HR/FB ratio is as high as it’s been since 2006, the only other time he cleared the 40-homer barrier. So is he going for broke, swinging for the fences on every pitch?
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| FB% | 40.9% | 39.3% | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| Pull% | 47.6% | 51.5% | 44.4% | 45.7% |
Not so fast. If Beltran were making a conscious effort to hit the ball over the fence as often as possible, we’d probably expect to see that reflected in both the frequency of his fly-balls and in the percentage of balls he pulls. So far, his numbers look more or less exactly in line with what he did last season. In fact, he’s actually hitting more ground balls and going to the opposite field more than he did last year.
This is a little worrisome. With no change in his batted-ball profile, how has his HR/FB ratio jumped nearly nine percent?
Quality of Contact
Maybe instead of achieving his home run total through pure volume, he’s just really creaming the fly balls he does hit.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| Avg. Exit Velocity (mph) | n/a | n/a | 91.4 | 91.8 |
| Fly Ball Distance (feet) | 282.9 | 288.9 | 277.5 | 286.3 |
According to Statcast, he’s not hitting the ball any harder on average than he did last year when he hit just 19 bombs all season. And while he is averaging roughly nine more feet on fly balls than he did in 2015, his 286-foot mark is right within his range of outcomes over the past several seasons. We still haven’t found a reasonable explanation for his power surge and we’re getting dangerously close to breaking out the “L” word.
Here is Beltran’s 2016 HR breakdown according to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker.
Four of Beltran’s homers this year would have been homers in less than five ballparks around baseball. It’s also worth noting that all four of them came in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. In fact, his May 15th home run against the White Sox would have been a home run nowhere but Yankee Stadium.
If you were to hypothetically remove those four homers from Beltran’s total, his HR/FB ratio sinks to 13.6%. While that would still be a bump up from the past few seasons, it’s far less eye-catching and would have a sizable negative impact on his overall production. It certainly isn’t fair to just remove those homers of course, as everyone hits their share of wall-scrapers, and Beltran has certainly hit a number of no-doubters (six of his homers would have been out in 28 or more parks). But we’re beginning to see that Beltran has walked a fine line in getting his dozen dingers, and that yes, luck has largely been on his side.
Conclusion
While Beltran’s plummeting plate discipline makes it appear as if he’s consciously selling out for power, nothing else really suggests that that’s the case. That is a scary proposition for Yankee fans, as it’s possible that a fluky HR/FB ratio is masking a huge erosion in Beltran’s offensive skill set. If (when?) that power normalizes, Beltran’s value could dry up pretty quickly. With an offense that already needs as much help as it can get, the Yankees need to hope Carlos keeps finding ways to clear the fence.
Lead photo: Andy Marlin / USA Today Sports