Yes.
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I have been informed by our editors that this, while factually correct, will not suffice as an article. So let me elaborate.
Before we begin, I would like to emphasize that Andrew Miller has thrown exactly 10 innings so far this season. They have been 10 spectacular innings, but they have still only been 10 innings. Many pitchers have had a string of 10 dominant innings at some point in their career; we all knew that Miller was a good pitcher long before these 10 innings, and a sample size this small should not do anything to dissuade our opinion anyways. Still, though:
1) These 10 frames happened to occur at the start of a season, so we have a to-date seasonal line to look at.
2) These 10 frames have been so good that words must be written about them.
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So let’s look at Miller’s body of work so far this season. Miller is one of those unfortunate chaps whose ERA is underperforming his FIP. “But, but…his ERA is 0.00, you fool! Got heem,” you exclaim excitedly, cackling with laughter as you gleefully bask in the glory of having proven this author wrong with one of his many foolish statements. However, unbeknownst to you:
1) Proving me wrong isn’t even an impressive or hard-to-accomplish feat.
2) Miller’s FIP is actually negative 0.31.
Let me repeat that again — Miller’s FIP is -0.31. Miller’s FIP is negative. He’s been so good at his craft in 2016 that he just broke the FIP stat, which only happens to be one of the most important and innovative metrics in the history of baseball statistics. He has allowed four baserunners so far this season, which leads to a K/hit ratio of 4.00. That isn’t a strikeout-to-walk ratio; that’s a strikeout-to-hit ratio. What’s his strikeout-to-walk ratio, you ask? It’s currently sitting at a casual infinity. He’s allowed a TAv of .090, and his WHIP is currently 0.40.
How has he done it? The answer lies primarily within his opponent’s plate discipline stats. [Again, remember that the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions. This only explains how he’s done it so far, but it has little predictive qualities over his future rates.]
The first thing to notice is that Miller is sporting a career-high zone rate. In other words, he’s throwing more pitches in the strike zone, and he’s challenging hitters more than he ever has in his career. This makes a lot of sense why he hasn’t walked a single batter yet this season, after years of sub-optimal walk rates.
Surprisingly, however, Miller’s success isn’t due to a higher rate of swings-and-misses. His contact rate, both within and outside the strike zone, is higher than it was last year, while his swinging strike rate is lower. Instead, take a look at his chase rate:
| Year | O_SWING_RT |
|---|---|
| 2013 | 32.6 |
| 2014 | 30.8 |
| 2015 | 37.3 |
| 2016 | 57.5 |
Oh. Well, that explains a lot. Miller is getting hitters to swing at significantly more pitches out of the strike zone, which are inherently harder to hit for loud contact, if even hit at all. This also makes intuitive sense in conjunction with his zone rate. Miller is pumping more pitches into the zone, so hitters are having an even tougher time of laying off the pitches that he does throw outside of the zone.
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On a less serious note, let’s take a look at Miller’s biggest struggles so far this season.
April 7 — This is Miller’s first appearance of the season. Miller comes into an 8-5 lead in the ninth, looking to seal the victory. He allows two hits. Yes, he allowed multiple hits in the same inning, and at this point in the season, his outlook was looking so bleak that it probably would’ve made sense to designate him for assignment right then and there. Of course, I didn’t mention that he got the save, striking out the side without allowing any runs. Also, one of the two hits was of the infield variety.
April 17 — It takes Miller 13 pitches to strike out the side in order. He was clearly fatigued from having thrown in the game the night before, and that could easily be seen in the performance. After all, it only took Miller 10 pitches to strike out the side the night prior.
April 23 — Miller allows a hit and does not record a strikeout in his inning of work. However, Miller’s struggles were fortunately overshadowed by Brett Gardner’s walkoff homer in the bottom of the inning, giving Miller his first win of the season.
May 1 — Miller allows the fourth and final hit that he’s allowed so far this season to the hated rivals, the Boston Red Sox. Also, this hit was of the extra-base variety, the first that he’s allowed in 2016. Bogaerts hit his double off of an Andrew Miller slider that almost hit him in the kneecap, and probably would have done so had Bogaerts decided not to flail at the offering in self-defense.
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To recap, in 2016, Andrew Miller has allowed only two hits that have left the infield. Additionally, not only has Miller not allowed a baserunner to cross home plate against him, but he hasn’t even allowed a baserunner to reach third either. He’s posted a K/9 of 14.4, which would be amazing if not for the fact that he’s posted a K/9 of over 14 in each of the last three seasons as well.
Folks, Andrew Miller is humming right now, and you’d best be served to enjoy the music while it lasts.
Photo: Tim Heitman / USA Today Sports