Is Jacoby Ellsbury running more?

The Yankees have been running like crazy to begin the year, and Jacoby Ellsbury seems to be spearheading this initiative. In fact, the only reason that Ellsbury isn’t tied for the Major League lead in steals is because Jose Altuve swiped two bags on Sunday. There is a narrative out there that Ellsbury has been less and less aggressive on the basepaths in recent seasons, and most people would point to his decreasing stolen base totals. But keep in mind that Ellsbury has also been getting on base less frequently in recent seasons (either due to injury or ineffectiveness), so raw stolen base totals won’t quite measure his basepath aggression quite accurately. So has Jacoby Ellsbury really been running less often in recent years, and has he started running again this season?

I’d like to first start this by acknowledging that there’s no perfect way to measure baserunning aggressiveness. However, fortunately, there are many almost-perfect ways to do so. Obviously, baserunning aggression is just stolen base attempts divided by stolen base attempt opportunities. But how exactly might we define a stolen base opportunity? Is it a plate appearance where Ellsbury is on first base without a runner on second? If two plate appearances occur while Ellsbury is still on first in this situation, does that count as one or two opportunities? Also, it takes away the possibility of Ellsbury stealing a base other than second. On the other hand, however, second base is stolen much more frequently. Also, context within the individual game matters a lot, and it’s nearly impossible to calculate and eliminate instances in which stealing doesn’t make as much sense, like when a big hitter is up with first and third, or when the lead is so big that it’d be considered disrespectful to steal.

At the end of the day, all calculations of a stolen base opportunity will be roughly similar and similarly rough, but all should tell the same story. I’m going to go with number of times on base (hits plus walks plus hit-by-pitches) minus home runs. I almost subtracted triples as well, because that’d mean that Ellsbury would have to steal home, and that’s just ridiculous hahahahaha. Haha. Ha…oh, right.

OK, now that we’re done with the boring explanation of the process, let’s take a look at the results:

It turns out that the narrative about Ellsbury slowing down his running frequency is actually true, even with the fewer opportunities. It’s also true that Ellsbury has been running more often in 2016. In fact, ignoring the small sample size, he’s been running as often or more than he did in his prime, including when he led the Majors in stolen bases in 2013. For reference, during his 70-steal season back in 2009, which is his career high and which also led the Major Leagues that year, Ellsbury’s steal attempt percentage was 34.9 percent, a similar frequency to what he’s doing so far this year.

What does this mean going forward? Well, “ignoring the small sample size” is the key here, and it’d be dangerous to declare anything for certain when we’re projecting with this small of a sample. His legs are fresh right now, but maybe they’ll tire out as the season wears on. Or maybe the Yankees really did try to implement a new initiative to run a lot more. Maybe Ellsbury took it upon himself to steal more.

If Ellsbury improves upon his .290 OBP (likely) or maintains his aggressiveness throughout the season (not as likely), and he stays healthy throughout the season (the most important and the least likely), then we’re looking at roughly 60-70 stolen base attempts. Even if his efficiency isn’t as elite as it used to be, he’ll still likely nab at least 45-55 of those attempts successfully. Remember that the American League leader in stolen bases last year, the aforementioned Altuve, swiped just 38, so we could easily be looking at the 2016 AL stolen base leader. Stay healthy and run, Jacoby, run.

Lead photo: Brad Penner / USA Today Sports