Yankees Top Prospects

System Overview

Overall, 2015 was a success for the Yankees’ farm system. There was some turn over in the developmental team in the front office in 2014, with Director of Player Development Pat Roessler being fired and Mark Newman retiring from Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations. Gary Denbo took control of both positions, and the early returns have been great. In 2015, just about all of the team’s top prospects either took a step forward or maintained their stock. The team did lose some mid-level prospects to injuries, but for now it looks like all should be fine at some point in 2016. With Greg Bird and Luis Severino recently losing their prospect status, and Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Rob Refsnyder close to being called up permanently, the Yankee system will look weaker by mid-next season. That being said, some international signees have flashed promise this year and could soon be the next big Yankee prospects.

Top Prospects

1.) Aaron Judge

Judge is one of the most eye-catching prospects in the minor leagues, with his massive size and even more massive power. Judge could hit 30 plus home runs in the majors, with a solid average and defense, and projects to be a mainstay in the heart of the Yankees’ order. Strikeouts will always be a part of his game due to his long arms and large strike zone, and his minor league performance this season hasn’t been great (albeit not terrible). I also don’t see Judge breaking camp with the MLB team next year. But, Judge brings game changing offense that will be worth the wait.

2.) Jorge Mateo

In just his first full season stateside, Mateo flashed his elite speed, leading all of the minor leagues with 82 stolen bases. Mateo’s bat has also been impressive, finishing the year hitting .321 in High-A. The Yankees weren’t enthralled with his defense, and will try him out at second base during fall instructs, but this is more due to their organizational need than Mateo not being able to play shortstop. Mateo’s weakest tool right now is power, but after watching him during a round of batting practice, it’s not hard to see some more pop coming in the future. Mateo is an electric player, and he may already be a top 50 prospect. There’s a reason why the Yankees wouldn’t give up Mateo for Aroldis Chapman at the trade deadline.

3.) James Kaprielian

The Yankees first round pick in this season’s draft, Kaprielian doesn’t have the upside of the Yankee prospects listed before him. Still, Kaprielian’s high floor and proximity to the majors is a big help to his value. The starter has an above average arsenal featuring a low 90’s fastball, plus curveball, and average changeup.  He’s as good a bet as any pitcher in the system to end up as a mid-rotation starter, and he could reach the majors as soon as next season. 

4.) Gary Sanchez

Once one of the top prospects in the Yankees system and in all of baseball, Gary Sanchez’s stock took a huge dive last season. Sanchez is never going to become the star that many had hoped he would be, but he could still start at catcher in the major leagues. Sanchez’s raw power is still plus-plus, but an average bat will likely limit his game power to “just” plus. This is disappointing when we consider what he might have been, but after a step forward in defense this season, Sanchez could end up as a catcher with 20+ home run power. Sanchez should be ready for the majors early next season, though whether he makes his debut with the Yankees or another team remains to be seen. Brian McCann is locked in at catcher for another three years and the team likes John Ryan Murphy as a backup.

5.) Domingo Acevedo

If you ask me what pitcher in the minors would be the scariest to face, I’d go with Domingo Acevedo in a blink of an eye. Not only is he a 6-foot-7, 242 pounds behemoth, but Acevedo can also hit a modest 103 mph with his fastball. Additionally, Acevedo has a changeup and slider, both of which have the potential to become average to above-average offerings. Acevedo’s current stats really aren’t worth reading into, as at 21, he should be dominating Low-A (and he is). Stamina is a real issue for the righty at the moment, with his fastball velocity decreasing as he approaches the third and fourth inning. Unlike many other flamethrowers, though, Acevedo’s control is at least average. Acevedo has possibly the biggest pure upside in the system outside of the top two guys, with front of the rotation potential.  If he ends up moving to the bullpen, though, he could be a shutdown closer. I hope to see some “You can’t spell ‘ace’ without Acevedo” headlines in a couple of years.

6.) Rob Refsnyder

Refsnyder has had a complicated year; seemingly on the brink of getting called up to the majors all season, yet only seeing a handful of at bats in the majors. At this point, we know what we’re getting with Refsnyder, which is a second baseman with an above-average bat, but fringe-average power, speed, and defense. An MLB slash of .275/.360/.400 with around 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases is probably Refnsyder’s upside. There are plenty of teams that would take a player like that on their club, but it doesn’t look like a contending team like the Yankees are comfortable with him starting at second base. Despite the team’s second base production ranking last in all of the majors at -1.3 WAR, Refsnyder was rarely used. Refnsyder could end up as a starting second baseman, but that chance may not come with the Yankees. Either way, he should be able to carve out a solid big league career.

7.) Brady Lail

Lail flew up the minor league ladder this season, moving from High-A to Triple-A. Lail had a 2.45 ERA in Double-A before moving up to Triple-A and recording a 4.62 ERA in 37 innings.  The Triple-A results are nothing to worry about, as the 22-year-old is young for the league and should have more success next season.  One caveat is that Lail hasn’t been able to strike out many batters, which could turn into an issue in the high minors. Overall, the upside for Lail isn’t anything special, but he is close to the major leagues and could be a serviceable fourth starter if things go well, with an upside resembling Mike Leake. Lail and Rookie Davis are similar prospects and could eventually be paired in the back of the Yankees rotation.

8.) Rookie Davis

Rookie Davis, like Brady Lail, went from unknown to a legitimate prospect this season, and now looks like a potential 4th starter. Davis had a 3.70 ERA in his first go at High-A, and while that ERA doesn’t sound overly impressive at first, he also had a 2.22 FIP and an outstanding 5.83 K/BB ratio. Davis hit a bit of a speed bump when he was promoted to Double-A, but a 4.32 ERA was partly bad luck, as he also had a 3.21 FIP. Only 22, it wouldn’t be a stretch to see Davis in the big leagues in 2017.

9.) Dustin Fowler

Fowler is one of many Yankee prospects that are very athletic and possess great raw tools. This year, though, Fowler has turned his talent into production. After hitting .307/.340/.419 in Low-A, the 20 year old was promoted to High-A, where he continued to produce to the tune of a .289/.328/.370 slash line. Fowler has struck out at a modest rate, and his ability to make contact is impressive for the raw player. His power is just average, but Fowler hit nine home runs in 66 games at Low-A in 2014, and double digit home runs at the MLB level are certainly possible. With a solid bat and defense, along with plus speed, Fowler has the tools to be a breakout prospect next season.

10.) Tyler Wade

The Yankees farm system has a surplus of shortstop prospects that could make an impact at the major league level, and one of the best of that group is Tyler Wade. Wade started the season at High-A, showing off his plus speed with 31 steals in 98 games and an above average bat (.280 average). His defense should also be good enough for him to stick at shortstop. Wade moved up to Double-A, and while he scuffled in 29 games with a .204 average, he wasn’t totally overmatched, striking out just 20.5% of the time. At only 20 years old, Wade was nearly four and a half years younger than the average player in Double-A, and his struggles are hardly worrisome. Wade’s weakest tool is his power, with it being well-below average. Despite this, he has the ability to be an everyday shortstop in the majors thanks to his bat and speed on the bases.

11.) Hoy Jun Park

The Yankees had a legendary July 2^nd signing spree in 2014, coming away with many of the top international prospects. One of the best of this group is Park. Hoy Jun got off to a great start in his first season stateside at Rookie-Ball, but his performance cooled off in the latter half of the season. Even with a disappointing ending, Park has flashed some exciting tools. With an advanced bat, especially for a 19 year old, and possibly average power, Park could be an above-average offensive performer for a shortstop. His defense is nothing special, but it should be enough for him to stick at shortstop.  Park also has plus speed, and his overall skill set makes for a well-rounded prospect—one that could be a first division starter in the majors one day.

12.) Miguel Andujar

Andujar’s performance this season has been a disappointment, hitting just .243/.288/.363 in 130 games. That being said, Andujar was challenged at High-A, so his performance wasn’t the end of the world.  ‘Deceptive speed’ is generally a pointless term, but in Andujar’s case, it actually makes sense.  The third baseman has surprising speed, and he used it to steal 12 bases in 2015. Andujar also has above average power and an average hit tool.  Andujar ceiling is lower than some had expected, but a solid everyday third baseman upside is not too bad of an outcome.

13.) Jordan Montgomery

A fourth round pick last season, Montgomery has impressed in his first full season as a prospect. Montgomery is an advanced pitcher (not just a thrower), and he spent the majority of this season in High-A, pitching 90.2 innings of 3.08 ERA ball. Montgomery’s cutter, curveball, and changeup should allow him to move quickly through the low minors, and he could eventually become an effective fourth starter for the team, with a chance for more.

14.) Wilkerman Garcia

Garcia signed for $1.35 million during last year’s July 2^nd signing period, and at the moment that deal looks like a steal. Garcia was said to have an advanced bat, plus speed, and average power when he signed last season, and recent reports show that all of his tools have ticked up. A shortstop with five tools that all are above average or better, Garcia has great upside and is already being mentioned in the same breath as Jorge Mateo. He’s also been compared to consensus top 50 prospect Gleyber Torres, and has the talent to be an elite prospect in a few years.

15.) Mason Williams

16.) Slade Heathcott

Williams and Heathcott are basically the exact opposite of the next two outfielders on this list, Jake Cave and Ben Gamel. While Cave and Gamel get the most out of their limited tools, Williams and Heathcott get the least (well, maybe not that bad) out of their loud tools. The two injury prone outfielders are far from hopeless, and both actually took a nice step forward in 2015. Williams’ raw tools could lead to 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases, along with a decent average. Heathcott’s ceiling is close to that as well. I may seem crazy to be ranking these two players so far back, considering their upside and proximity to the majors, but unfortunately, the chances that either of these guys hits their ceiling is very slim.

17.) Jonathan Holder

Holder is an interesting prospect, closing in college before being shifted to starting with the Yankees. Starting this season with a two-level jump from Short-Season A to High-A, Holder had a 2.44 ERA. He didn’t strike many batters out, but excellent control was a key to his success. The Kenny Powers look-alike is probably a reliever long term, but he’s still an interesting name to watch, especially considering his early success. 

18.) Cale Coshow

Coshow is similar to Jonathan Holder, as he was a relief pitcher until early this season for the Yankees. Like Holder, it looks like the conversion was the right move, as he has been great early on. Coshow started in Low-A, before moving to High-A where he had a 2.23 ERA in 64.2 innings. He was bumped up to Double-A at the end of the season, and had a 3.51 ERA in 33.1 innings. Coshow’s a unique prospect, not only because of his past in the bullpen, but also because he is 6’ 5”, and 260 pounds. As with Holder, Coshow is likely a reliever long term, but if he can develop his slider or changeup a bit more, it could pair nicely with his fastball/cutter combination and he stands a shot at being a fourth starter.

On the Shelf

These players have been hurt for much or all of this season, and are therefore hard to rank with healthy Yankee prospects that have had the full season to show what they can do.

1.) Eric Jagielo

Jagielo’s had a disappointing season, though it isn’t his fault. A very promising start to the year was cut short by knee surgery, keeping him out for the year. It’s challenging to assess Jagielo now, as knee surgery could have sapped the range he needed to play third base. If he is forced to move to first base, Jagielo’s value will take a hit. Jagielo should be able to start on either side of the diamond, though, thanks to a potentially above average hit tool and plus power. If all goes well, he could be a first-division starter at third base. A more realistic for Jagielo is a second-division starter at first base, and at worst he is a strong-side platoon player. Jagielo was supposed to head to the Arizona Fall League, but the team will play it safe and instead focus on Spring Training in 2016.

2.) Ian Clarkin

Clarkin has been out all year with arm soreness, though he recently started throwing live bullpen sessions and looks to be close to fully recovered. It’s impossible to rank Clarkin after this year, as he didn’t play in any games. Putting aside the injury though, the Yankees have a very intriguing pitching prospect, assuming his stuff comes back once healthy. Only 20, the 33rd overall pick in the 2013 draft was impressive in his first pro season last year, with a feel for pitching beyond his years. In addition, he has a solid three pitch mix in his fastball, curveball, and changeup, which all project to be above average to plus. His upside could be higher than that of James Kaprielian, albeit with much more risk involved. Clarkin will also be sent to the Arizona Fall League.

3.) Luis Torrens

Torrens showed some intriguing upside last season, with close to above-average hit and power tools to go with plus defense, and many hoped that he would break out this year. Unfortunately, shoulder surgery has cost him the season. He’ll still be 19 going into next season in Low-A, and as long as his shoulder is fully recovered, Torrens could still be a very solid, though risky, catching prospect.

4.) Jacob Lindgren

Lindgren was one of baseball’s most electrifying relief pitching prospects in 2014, but due to injury his stock took a dive in 2015.  Lindgren started this season the same way he finished last—dominating minor league hitters.  He reached the big leagues after just 22  minor league innings. The Yankees hoped to rely on Lindgren early on, as his great fastball and wipeout slider could allow for a closer that is a strikeout machine. Unfortunately, he ran into trouble in the majors with a 5.14 ERA in 7.0 innings and surgery for a bone spur in his pitching elbow ended his season. Lindgren could be an immediate contributor in the Yankees bullpen next season if healthy, and will look to keep his career-long ‘K/9 in the double digits’ streak alive.  Once he’s back with the Yankees, we hope to see Lindgren collaborate with Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller to make a new rap group.

5.) Domingo German

German, who came over to the Yankees in the Martin Prado/Nathan Eovaldi deal, required Tommy John in Spring Training. Prior to surgery, German had a low-nineties fastball with great life, as well as a slider that looked to be above average to plus. He appeared primed to move quickly after progressing slowly with the Marlins, who kept him in Short-Season ball until last year despite excellent results every season. If German can get his changeup to become even an average offering, he could end up as a mid-rotation starter, but is more likely headed to the bullpen.

6.) Ty Hensley

Out of all the Yankee prospects, Hensley is the one that really needs a hug. A victim of horrible injury luck, Hensley was just getting back on his feet after a shoulder abnormality and major hip surgery when he was attacked in the offseason, breaking his jaw and suffering a concussion. Hensley showed up to Spring Training healthy…and then required Tommy John surgery. It’s been a very rough ride for the prospect, but the first round pick had flashed mid-rotation upside when healthy, with a mid-nineties fastball and plus curveball. Hopefully Hensley is able to come back healthy by mid-next season and make up for his lost developmental time. The 22 year old has thrown just 42.2 innings since being drafted in 2012.

7.) Austin DeCarr

Last year’s third round pick by the Yankees, DeCarr underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2015. Hopefully he will appear in some games next season, and if his stuff comes back, DeCarr’s plus fastball and curveball could carry him to a fourth starter role. If his command wavers, DeCarr could be a solid relief pitcher.

International Prospects

While I did rank some former July 2nd international signees, there are quite a few more names that are exciting, but so far away that they can’t be compared to players that are up to six years older than them.

1.) Juan De Leon

De Leon could be the “next Victor Robles,” in that he is a prospect with ridiculous raw tools on the brink of breaking out.  With great bat speed, the center fielder has a chance to develop plus power. This, along with above average speed, an advanced bat, and what could be plus defense, gives De Leon an exciting profile with big upside.

2.) Leonardo Molina

At his best, Molina flashes above average to plus tools across the board. He’s similar to Juan De Leon, though Molina’s bat isn’t as developed and he doesn’t have as much power. Molina is still very raw, but has a good feel for the game. Of course, he is just 17 and has been overmatched stateside so far, so expectations should be tempered for now, though Molina’s ceiling could be special.

3.) Dermis Garcia

Dermis Garcia is the name a lot of Yankee fans know from the July 2nd class, since he received the highest bonus. In my opinion, there are other players that deserve to get much more hype than Garcia. Sure, 70 raw power from a shortstop sounds pretty exciting, but in reality Garcia is likely to end up at third base, and his hit tool is so far away that it is impossible to project his game power. Garcia has tantalizing upside, but his tools are much less polished than you would expect for a player with such a large bonus.

4.) Jonathan Amundaray

Amundaray may not have the upside of the Latin prospects before him, but like Molina and De Leon, he has a very solid and balanced profile. Amundaray has solid speed and power, and when all is said and done, he may not have a tool worse than a 50. 

5.) Nelson Gomez

Gomez isn’t going to do much on defense, but he could be very dangerous at the plate. The third baseman could end up with an above average to plus bat and power, and was solid this season in rookie ball. A lack of impact speed and defense caps his upside, but Gomez still has a chance to be an impressive hitter on offense.

6.) Miguel Flames

Flames’ background is like that of Luis Torrens, a converted infielder who is now catching. Flames is also similar to Torrens in terms of tools—Flames could end up with an average bat and power, with a chance for more. That being said, Flames has some work to do before reaching Torrens’ prospect-level, due to rawness and questions over how his defensive conversion will work out.

7.) Diego Castillo

Castillo doesn’t have the loudest tools, but at 17 years old, he hit .331 in Rookie-Ball, striking out just 11.1% of the time. Castillo is a polished hitter that should be able to translate all of his raw power into games, leading to about 5-10 home runs a year. He is also a solid shortstop, and one of his best tools is his intelligence and feel for the game.  Castillo lacks big upside, but his floor is high for a Latin prospect.

Other names to watch

1.) Drew Finley

The team’s third round pick in this year’s draft, Finley’s arsenal is similar to Kaprielian. While his fastball won’t blow anyone away, an advanced pair of secondary pitches in his curveball and changeup could allow Finley to become a third starter.

2.) Abiatel Avelino

Avelino had a nice bounce-back season after scuffling in 2014. While he is only hitting .252 in High-A, this is a big step up from hitting .232 in Low-A last season.  Avelino’s carrying tool is his plus speed, which he used to steal 54 bases this season. Avelino also has an average bat and above average glove, but his ceiling is capped due to his lack of power. Avelino likely ends up as a utility player in the majors.

3.) Kyle Holder

The only thing keeping Holder’s stock from totally plummeting is that he was a first round pick by the Yankees in 2015 and has just started his professional career. While fatigue after a long season may be setting in, Holder hasn’t shown much promise with his bat, and his carrying tool—defense—hasn’t been overly impressive yet either. He’ll need to take it up a notch next season at the plate to stay on the prospect radar.

4.) Jake Cave

5.) Ben Gamel

Cave and Gamel are very similar prospects, as they have performed well in the minors, maxing out their limited ability. Both players likely end up as fourth or fifth outfielders due to lack of a strong carrying tool, but having average to slightly above tools across the board is not a bad outcome for a sixth round pick (Cave), and a tenth rounder (Gamel).

6.) Carlos Vidal

If you’ve read my minor league update series, it’s clear that I have an irrational prospect crush on Carlos Vidal. Bias aside, Vidal is an intriguing player to watch.  This season, Vidal hit .303/.389/.492 in Rookie Ball. Highly regarded shortstop Hoy Jun Park had a .239/.351/.383 slash line on the same team. Obviously, stats aren’t everything, but Vidal played significantly better than Park. Maybe it’s time for Vidal to get some more attention in the prospect world.

7.) Trey Amburgey 

Amburgey was a 13^th round draft pick this season, and doesn’t have the loudest of tools. Yet when a player hits .346/.399/.523 in his pro debut with 21 steals in 53 games, he may be worth keeping an eye on. Amburgey, an outfielder, also had five home runs, all in the span of 21 games in Low-A, and hasn’t struck out much. Who Amburgey is as a prospect is unknown at the moment, so the best we can do is scout the stat line. His stat line is eye-popping, though, and Amburgey is already looking like a great value in the 13^th.

8.) Gosuke Katoh

Katoh was a very promising prospect when drafted in the second round in 2013, but after a hot start in Rookie-Ball, he struggled mightily in Low-A in 2014. It’s been more of the same in 2015, as he struggled in Low-A (.161/.264/.202), but played well in Rookie-Ball. His plus speed and solid defense is still there, but what appeared to be an advanced bat has taken a major step back. It’s hard to envision Katoh ever becoming much more than an up and down player at this point, though he is just 20 years old and still has raw talent.

9.) James Pazos

10.) Nick Goody

Using relief pitchers and prospects in the same sentence is a bit paradoxical, since bullpen prospects aren’t supposed to be real, but when the pitcher has an ERA under 2.00 in the high minors and a K/9 over 12, he deserves to be called a legitimate prospect. Both Nick Goody and James Pazos fit that description, having dominant seasons out of the bullpen. Both pitchers also got a taste of the big leagues after shutting down minor league hitters.  Goody has a solid fastball/curveball combination, while Pazos features a fastball/slider combo. The two pitchers could end up as good seventh inning relievers or better, and are major league ready.

(Photo: Jonathan Dyer-USA Today Sports)