Prospects of the Week:
Aaron Judge, RF
Aaron Judge came into 2015 being possibly the first Yankee prospect to be under-hyped by the Yankees fanbase. That quickly changed, though. It started with photographs that showed the absurd height difference between Judge and his teammates and coaches. Yankee fans truly started to get excited after he hit a game winning home run early in Spring Training. Judge become the talk of Spring Training, and now is one of the best, most recognizable, and most hyped Yankee prospects. Certainly, much of the hype is warranted. He has some of the biggest raw power in the minor leagues, as well as an above average hit tool and surprising athleticism and defensive value. Judge then proceeded to hit well in his first taste of Double-A, with 12 home runs and a .284/.350/.516 slash line in 63 games, earning a promotion to Triple-A, where he’s held his own. Now the hype machine that is the Yankees fanbase is calling for him to be promoted to the majors. It’s time to pump the brakes on that idea, though, as Judge isn’t close to ready for a major league look.
The biggest issue for Judge is the strikeout, and he’s been getting punched out about 25% of the time for the past season and a half. Strikeouts will always be a part of Judge’s game, but for him to really thrive in the majors, he’ll have to cut down on them a bit. On the other end of the spectrum, Judge’s ability to take a walk quite good. Last season at High-A, he walked a remarkable 17.5% of the time. That being said, his plate discipline took a bit of a nosedive this season, as in Double-A his walk rate was just 8.6%, and in Triple-A it is at 11.9%. It’s naive to expect Judge to walk 17.5% of the time at any level going forward, but for him to be a stud in the majors, he’ll have to keep the walk rate above 10%. A side note on Judge is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In the minors, Judge’s average has been buoyed by a very high BABIP. A high BABIP in the minors isn’t necessarily bad, but it can be a sign of some luck. That luck has helped to keep his average in a solid range, but his BABIP is currently at .304 in Triple-A, and his average has paid the price and now sits at .243. This is just another reason why it is vital for Judge to strikeout less. Judge has also shown inconsistent power in Triple-A, slugging just .374 with three home runs.
Judge’s warts as a prospect are currently ones that need to be addressed, but at the same time, they shouldn’t be the death of him as a player. He should be able to keep the strikeouts under control, while walking at a decent clip, and sustain a solid average with great power. That being said, he needs more seasoning in the minors to meet these expectations. To expect him to contribute in the big leagues this season is unreasonable. Judge has the tools to turn into a beast. That said, he’s just not ready to be that player yet, and conservatively may not be until mid-2016.
Kyle Holder, SS
The Yankees search for the “next Derek Jeter” (heavy sarcasm) brought them to the 2015 MLB first player draft, as they took Kyle Holder with the 30th overall pick. The Yankees must have seen something in the 21-year old, but they’re the only ones that seem to be bullish on Holder. At the plate, there’s not much to like. He brings below average bat speed to the table, along with a poor swing path and bad pitch recognition. It also appears that Holder has very little power, and the previously mentioned swing path will sap what little pop he does have.
All in all, the overall package doesn’t look like a starting major leaguer. There isn’t a ton to like about Holder’s game, but he isn’t all doom and gloom. Firstly, Holder’s defense is very good. It may not be elite, but he likely had the best glove in the draft and should be a lock to stick at shortstop. Initially, Holder’s bat hasn’t shown much promise, but he’s less experienced in baseball compared to other 2015 draftees, having been heavily involved in basketball until recently. Also, Holder was just drafted and is only beginning his professional career. It’s impossible to accurately gauge a player’s value this early in his career, especially considering all the outside forces that could be affecting Holder. With that in mind, it’s pointless to label Holder a poor pick or a bust, but for now, Holder’s tools and total skill set don’t look all that promising for a first round pick.
Jonathan Holder, SP
Jonathan Holder, unrelated to Kyle Holder but possibly related to Kenny Powers, is yet another example of a Yankee pitcher that was picked later in the draft, has little hype or pedigree, yet is putting up outstanding numbers in the minor leagues. Holder was drafted in the 6th round in 2014 after closing out games for Mississippi State. He was promptly turned into a starter by the Yankees, and has been lights out. Even though Holder closed in college, he has a starter’s arsenal, with his best pitches being a curveball and cutter, along with an average splitter. After posting a 3.03 ERA in 32.2 innings (seven starts) last season in Low-A, Holder was promoted to High-A to start 2015. He clearly grew as a starting pitcher in the offseason, finding even more success at High-A, with a 2.58 ERA (2.29 FIP) in 73.1 innings (13 starts). Holder’s only speed bump so far has been an injury that put him on the disabled list this season. Other than that, he has struck out batters at a decent clip (7.25 K/9 in 2015 and 8.27 last year), and has limited his free passes to just 11, (remember, in 13 starts) all of this year. Holder is still a relative unknown as a prospect, but he’s another interesting name to watch in this system as he moves up the minor league ladder.
Scranton Wilkes/Barre RailRiders
Friday:
Clippers 2, RailRiders 3
Saturday:
Clippers 5, RailRiders 4
Sunday:
Clippers 3, RailRiders 4
Tuesday:
RailRiders 4, Clippers 6
Wednesday:
RailRiders 7, Clippers 2
Thursday:
RailRiders 6, Clippers 7
Notable Performances From The Week:
1B Greg Bird: 9-23, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 6 R, 6 RBI, 5 K
C Gary Sanchez: 7-21, 2 HR, 2 R, 5 RBI, 0 BB, 7 K
RF Aaron Judge: 2-23, 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB, BB, 14 K
2B Rob Refsnyder: 6-21, 2 2B, 3B, 3 R, RBI, CS, 2 BB, 6 K
Trenton Thunder
Friday:
Thunder 2, Baysox 4
Saturday:
Thunder 6, Baysox 4
Sunday:
Thunder 5, Baysox 6
Tuesday:
Fightin Phils 7, Thunder 1
Wednesday:
Fightin Phils 11, Thunder 1
Thursday:
Fightin Phils 8, Thunder 1
Notable Performances From The Week:
CF Jake Cave: 8-23, 2 2B, 4 R, RBI, 2 BB, 4 K
SS Tyler Wade: 2-22, 2 RBI, 5 BB, 5 K
RHP Eric Ruth: 5.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 5 H, 2 BB, K—3.1 IP, 8 R/ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 2 K
Tampa Yankees
Friday:
Marauders 5, Yankees 4
Marauders 5, Yankees 3
Sunday:
Marauders 2, Yankees 5
Marauders 10, Yankees 5
Tuesday:
Yankees 4, Marauders 3
Wednesday:
Yankees 4, Marauders 5
Thursday:
Yankees 1, Marauders 2
Notable Performances From The Week:
SS Jorge Mateo: 6-22, 2 2B, 3B, 3 R, 2 SB, 1 CS, 2 BB, 9 K
CF Dustin Fowler: 8-25, 2 2B, HR, 4 R, 5 RBI, BB, 4 K
3B Miguel Andujar: 7-21, 2 B, 3 R, 4 RBI, SB, 4 K
RHP Rookie Davis: 5.0 IP, 2 R/ER, 4 H, BB, 3 K
RHP Cale Coshow: 5.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K
Charleston RiverDogs
Friday:
RiverDogs 0, Shorebirds 0
Saturday:
RiverDogs 4, Shorebirds 3
Sunday:
RiverDogs 1, Shorebirds 3
Tuesday:
RiverDogs 7, Suns 2
Wednesday:
RiverDogs 7, Suns 4
Notable Performances From The Week:
RHP Joey Maher: 7.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 5 K
Staten Island Yankees
Friday:
IronBirds 4, Yankees 8
Saturday:
IronBirds 7, Yankees 5
Sunday:
IronBirds 5, Yankees 8
Monday:
Yankees 8, Lake Monsters 3
Tuesday:
Yankees 3, Lake Monsters 2
Wednesday:
Yankees 4, Lake Monsters 9
Thursday:
Renegades 4, Yankees 3
Notable Performances From The Week:
SS Kyle Holder: 4-24, 5 R, 3 BB, 5 K
CF Jeff Hendrix: 9-24, 3 2B, 5 R, 2 RBI, 3 K
RHP Domingo Acevedo: 4.1 IP, 3 R, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K
Pulaski Yankees
Friday:
Yankees 3, Rays 4
Saturday:
Rays 3, Yankees 1
Sunday:
Rays 3, Yankees 9
Tuesday:
Yankees 2, Royals 3
Wednesday:
Yankees 8, Royals 5
Thursday:
Yankees 0, Royals 1
Notable Performances From The Week:
CF Carlos Vidal: 5-21, 3B, HR, 6 R, 5 RBI, 4 BB, 3 K, 2 SB
RHP Davis Palladino: 7.0 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K
RHP Melvin Morla: 6.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K
RHP Jhon Morban: 6.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K
(Photo: Kim Klement-USA Today Sports)
Thanks for reading, Josh! Almost all of the flaws in Judge’s profile that I talked about shouldn’t be as big of an issue once he’s had more experience in the high minors. Judge not being ready for the majors doesn’t effect his upside, which could be at least a first division RF, possibly better.
I think there’s the potential for an everyday player in there, but he just needs to refine his baseball-specific skills. What do you think he would need to do to get to that ceiling?
I’m assuming you’re talking about Holder? For him to be a regular in the majors, his glove will have to carry him. He’s got a long way to go, but if he can get his glove and arm to about 65, (which would be a bit less than what Fransisco Lindor’s grades are, for reference), and get his hit tool to fringe-average, I could see a below average regular if everything breaks well. That’s attainable, but since he’s never going to hit for power and isn’t a big threat on the basepaths, the glove is going to have to be really good.