If you’re a Yankees fan, this past week and change has been grueling. The team stood 21-12, atop the AL East, after winning in Tampa Bay to start their 9-game road trip. What followed was seven losses in their next eight games. You probably need reasons to believe again. You need something to grab you by the arm and pull you out of the gutter so you can enjoy yourself this Memorial Day weekend. I’m here to do that.
On the surface, things shouldn’t appear as bleak as they seem. The AL East has been the best division in baseball thus far, with the Red Sox 4.5 back of first with 19 wins. The Yankees trail Tampa Bay by a half game, and you can nod your head in approval at their 16-13 record against division opponents. They’ll finish out the month with Texas (18-23), Kansas City (26-14), and Oakland (14-29) – all series that can be won. The Royals will travel to the Bronx after taking two of three from New York, but as of now the Yankees will avoid Edinson Volquez, who gave them fits last week, and instead face struggling hurlers Jeremy Guthrie and Yordano Ventura.
Taking a closer look at the numbers, there are a few trends that either won’t last, or will lead to more wins.
1. Bad luck in big spots.
I covered nearly every Yankees home game last season, and one permanent memory I have is Mark Teixeira telling us the team just needs to hit with runners in scoring position. Joe Girardi would echo him. How do you do this, I would ask? Well, you just have to do it, is essentially what they replied. They hit with runners in scoring position around a quarter of the time. Their .252 AVG ranked 15th in the big leagues. In those spots, their hard hit percentage was 28th out of 30, and they were 17th in BABIP – an average mark.
This year, they’re at .257 with men in scoring position – 16th in MLB. Their .275 BABIP ranks 22nd. And, while they’re not punishing the baseball in these spots like some of the top teams in the league, they’ve improved their rank to 10th in hard hit percentage with RISP with a 29.5 percent clip. In addition, they’re hitting the ball softly at the 4th-lowest rate.
| 2014 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|
| BA w/ RISP | .252 (15th) | .257 (16th) |
| BABIP | .291 (17th) | .275 (22nd) |
| Hard Hit% | 25.3% (28th) | 29.5 (10th) |
What does this mean? The Yankees are hitting the ball too well with runners in scoring position for their mediocre batting average in these situations to continue. Balls will start falling, more runners will start scoring, and the Yankees won’t suffer a drought like they did in Tampa Bay and Kansas City (seven runs in six games).
2. Chase Headley can’t struggle at 3B forever.
Chase Headley is in the midst of a strange season at third base.
| Year | Defensive Runs Saved | UZR | Games at 3B |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 14 | 16.5 | 158 |
| 2011 | 1 | -3.8 | 107 |
| 2012 | -3 | 7.3 | 159 |
| 2013 | 5 | 7.0 | 138 |
| 2014 | 13 | 20.9 | 124 |
| 2015 | -5 | -2.9 | 37 |
As you can see, with the exception of a shortened 2011 season, Headley has been dependable for solid defense at third. Last season, with the Yankees and Padres combined, he was phenomenal with a career-high 20.9 UZR. The team is currently 24th in UZR and 23rd in Runs Saved. You can expect Headley to lead a turnaround eventually. Based on his track record, it’s only a matter of time.
3. Pitching always prevails.
Yankees pitchers – both in the rotation and in the bullpen – are absolutely slaying the competition right now. They’re Top-5 in xFIP, 2nd place in pitcher WAR, and 6th in K’s per 9. When all else fails, take pride in the fact that the front office has assembled, to this point, maybe the best bullpen in the league. Masahiro Tanaka is on his way back soon, too. Oh, and don’t forget about Ivan Nova, who will soon make his final extended Spring Training start in his return from Tommy John surgery.
There are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic about the Yankees. Now, go enjoy a fresh burger off the grill, and a cold drink.
(Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA Today Sports)