Tampa Bay Rays 2016 Team Rankings

True Average (TAv): .271 – 3rd in AL

Deserved Run Average (DRA): 3.91- 2nd in AL

Defensive Efficiency (DE): .721- 5th in AL

Pitching Matchups

Friday 7:10 pm ET- Chris Archer vs. Masahiro Tanaka

It has been a tumultuous start to the season for the Rays ace. Archer has a 5.16 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in his first 10 starts. With almost a third of his season in the books, the sample size is getting a little big to chalk it up to a fluke. There were signs of the old Archer returning before a 6 run drubbing by the Tigers in which Archer couldn’t escape the fourth inning.

There are some positive signs however. His strikeout rate of 11.2 would be a career best and his stuff seems undiminished. His four-seamer remains in the mid 90’s, and his nasty slider looks as sharp as ever. He is throwing his mediocre change up nearly twice as often as last year and is getting burned on it. Assuming Archer is healthy, he may just be a mechanical tweak or two from his old self. His walk and home run rates suggest location is the issue. Let’s hope he keeps struggling with that for at least one more start.

Saturday 4:10 pm ET- Matt Moore vs. Michael Pineda

Despite the ugly run prevention numbers, there has been a lot for Rays fans to like about Moore’s 2016 season. His average fastball velocity of 92.7 is his highest since his rookie year in 2012. Control has long been Moore’s main bug bear, but through nine starts he has posted a 2.8 BB/9, which would be a career low. He’s striking hitters out at almost exactly his career rate (8.6 vs. 8.5 K/9). The reason for the 5.47 ERA seems to be an abundance of home runs, but Moore’s 16.7% HR/FB rate suggests he’s been the victim of some bad luck in that respect.

Sunday 1:10 pm ET- Jake Odorizzi vs. Nathan Eovaldi

Odorizzi’s peripherals have dipped slightly across the board from his career 2015 season, however what remains is still a solid mid-rotation starter. He throws five pitches, but relies primarily on his low-90’s heater and the splitter he added prior to 2014. PECOTA sees more of the same the rest of the way, projecting 1.3 WARP and a 4.17 DRA in 21 more starts. At 26-years-old in just his third full season, there is still the chance he builds on last season’s success, but it’s probably more likely that what you see is what you get.

Bullpen

Lineup

Late-blooming outfielder Brandon Guyer (.366 TAv) continues to defy expectations, hitting .327/.410/.564 through his first 29 games played, with a TAv that ranks third in baseball among batters with 100 or more PAs. Utilityman Steve Pearce (.353 TAv), who signed a modest one year $4.75 million pact with the team this winter, is another in a long line of unlikely Rays stars plucked from the scrap heap. He has established himself as the team’s premier source of power out of Tampa Bay’s cleanup spot.

Steven Souza (.298 TAv) is belatedly proving PECOTA prescient for its optimism about the 27-year-old outfielder. Evan Longoria (.278 TAv) isn’t the star he was, but he still provides 20-homer pop and excellent defense. Brad Miller is the very definition of average at shortstop, but there’s no harm in that.

After those guys, things drop off considerably. Corey Dickerson (.245 TAv) and Logan Morrison (.227 TAv) have been truly awful since the Rays traded for them this offseason. Dickerson has kept the power since leaving Coors, but is well below the Mendoza line. Former top prospect Desmond Jennings (.212 TAv) has struggled to regain his form following an injury plagued 2015 season and is likely on thin ice as he approaches his 30th birthday. Catching tandem Curtis Casali (.216 TAv) and Hank Conger (.141 TAv) have combined for an underwhelming 2.2 adjusted FRAA in 2016, which is not nearly enough to excuse their woeful hitting.

Injuries

• Centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier broke two bones in his left hand while diving for a fly ball on Saturday against Detroit. He is expected to miss 8-10 weeks following Tuesday’s surgery. Triple-A outfielder Mikie Mahtook was promoted in his place.
• On May 14, second baseman Logan Forsythe was placed on the 15-day DL with a hairline fracture in his left shoulder. Forsythe told reporters that the best case scenario would have him return in about four weeks. He will be reevaluated in early June.
• Starter Alex Cobb and former Yankee ace Chase Whitley are both in the home stretch of their rehab from twin May 2015 Tommy John surgeries. Both Rays starters have begun a throwing program and are expected to rejoin the pitching staff sometime in July if all goes to plan.

Photo Credit: Thomas B. Shea / USA TODAY Sports

Bottom Play (WPA): In the seventh inning, the Yankees put runners on first and second with one out. Down 4-1, Chase Headley stepped up to the plate with a chance to drive in a run. However, he grounded into a double play to end the inning, decreasing the Yankees’ chance of winning by 10.1%. This was the last real chance the Yankees had to build a comeback.

Key Moment: After a failed 7th inning rally, the Yankees imploded in the 8th. Evan Longoria singled to begin the inning. James Loney reached base following a Jose Pirela error. A Logan Forsythe bloop single made the game 6-1. Steven Souza Jr. was hit and the Yanks brought in Chris Capuano to relieve Bryan Mitchell, who didn’t record an out. Capuano pitched a little bit better, but still walked two batters, forcing in a run. The inning resulted in four runs, breaking open the game for the Rays.

Trend to Watch: Brett Gardner’s strikeout in the fifth marked his second of the day. Today was his fourth game in the last five with two strikeouts in a game. However, Gardner has not struck out more than twice in a game all year. New York’s next opponent, the A’s, collectively place in the top 10 in strikeout rate during the last 30 days. His first opponent, Sonny Gray, is 13th in the AL in strikeouts.

Coming Next: After a day off on Monday, the Yankees will take on Oakland Tuesday at home, 7:05 ET start time. Oakland began the year as the worst team record-wise in the American League. They’ve made a climb back into relevancy but are back down to earth, winning five out of their last 10. Sonny Gray (9-3, 2.09 ERA) will start against Nate Eovaldi (8-2, 4.52 ERA) in game one of the three game series.

(Photo: Andy Marlin-USA Today Sports)

The offense would’ve had to do much better than that to keep them in this one as the Yankees fell behind 4-0 in the second inning, after starter Chase Whitley left with an elbow injury. With a sizable early deficit and the bullpen tasked with going more than seven innings, nobody would’ve blamed you for flipping over to the basketball games or getting some sleep yourself.

Top WPA Play: Rene Rivera’s three-run home run on the first pitch Esmil Rogers threw (+.218). Clicks remote.
Key Moment: James Loney’s single in the second inning (+.100). Loney’s single off Whitley was key not only because it gave the Rays an early 1-0 lead, but it also came with two outs in the inning meaning the entire could’ve been avoided if the Yankees could get him out.

Trend to Watch: A-Rod hit another home run, it was his ninth of the season and 663rd of his career. Watching him and Mark Teixeira turn back the clocks on their careers has really been something so far this season and it should be interesting to see how they do the rest of the way after hot starts.

Up Next: the Yankees are in Kansas City and not just for the barbecue, they also have a series with the Royals. Fans will most likely not be turning away from this game early as Michael Pineda (5-0, 2.73 ERA, 3.47 DRA) takes the mound for the Yankees fresh off of his 16-strikeout performance against the Orioles. The Royals will have a tall right-hander of their own on the mound in Chris Young (2-0, 0.78 ERA, 3.40 DRA).

(Photos by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images)

Sure, Rays vs. Yankees doesn’t hold a candle to the rich history and systemic hatred between Boston and New York.  But in my estimation, the recent narrative for this rivalry has been just as compelling; Rays vs. Yankees is a study in contrasts.  The Rays succeed with a small payroll, nearly no fans, and young, homegrown talent, the Yankees with all the money, all the fans, and every old veteran they could find.

For all the success these two teams had over the past seven years, both now find themselves in transitional periods.  As I outlined in my introductory Bronx BP post, the Yankees are experiencing an inevitable downswing after 20+ years of unparalleled success.  The Rays meanwhile operate like a small business.  This past calendar year, that small business lost their CEO, CFO, and lead engineer: Andrew Friedman, Joe Maddon, and David Price.  Under new management this year, they hope to maintain stability, though years of poor drafting makes their immediate future uncertain.

Friday we get the first taste of this rivalry in 2015 and there’s a whole bunch of new names to familiarize yourself with so buckle up.

Note: all stats from 2014 unless otherwise mentioned (next week I will begin to use 2015 stats)

At the Plate

Yankees Lineup

Hey, there’s that offense we were all looking for!  The bats finally perked up last Sunday and during the series in Baltimore.  I told you it wasn’t the end of the world.  We saw an A-Bomb, a few Tex-messages, and Stephen Drew going all STEPHEN DREW on the way to 14, 6, 3, and 5 runs over the last four games.  But there’s still room for improvement and a few offensive issues in need of some attention.

• Carlos Beltrán? Still asleep.  Somebody needs to wake that fool up.
• Score some runs early! The Yankees have been playing behind in almost every game and their starters might feel more comfortable pitching with a lead.
• What the hell is the Yankees batting order?  The lineup looks different every day and yes there are a lot of old guys that need days off.  But as an example of the inconsistency, A-Rod has hit everywhere between 2nd and 7th this year.  Joe Girardi is still tinkering and dealing with injuries but it’d be a good thing if he came out of the weekend with a better idea of his daily lineup.

X-Factor: Brett Gardner

First things first, let’s make sure he’s healthy.  Seeing Gardner play all weekend would be a positive for the Yankees.  Secondly, his offensive and defensive skills translate the best to Tropicana field (as do Ellsbury’s but I chose Brett), with lots of space in the outfield.  If his wrist is at full strength, there could be some extra-base hits and web gems in store from him this weekend.

Yankees Bench

The positives: Chris Young is still crushing the ball.  He’s a weapon off the bench and when he gets starts against lefties, though they see none this weekend.  Jack Ryan James Ryan John Ryan Murphy looks like he could be a great defensive catcher.  He’s eviscerated the running game when he’s behind the dish and sooner or later we’ll have to check in on his framing stats.

The negatives: Gregorio Petit – he’s hitting .182 and making errors.  The only thing going for him is he plays multiple positions but it remains to be seen how much longer that will keep him on the team.  Garrett Jones is a DH-type on a team with 3 other DH-types.  His experiment in the outfield last weekend didn’t go very well and Mark Teixeira has first base locked down.

Rays Scheduled Starters

Jake Odorizzi is the ace of my fantasy baseball team so far, has a nasty split-change, and will be a handful for the Yankees to hit on Saturday.  According to the Baseball Prospectus Annual, Nate Karns has some good raw stuff but lacks command.  He got touched up for 8 runs in his first two starts and has already walked 6 on the year.  Two of Matt Andriese’s best comparables are old friends David Phelps and Adam Warren so that gives you a good idea of what to expect from him.  Best case scenario he ends up a fifth starter but more likely has a career bouncing around as a swingman.

The Rays are dealing with a number of injuries in their rotation right now and that’s why two of these starters look unfamiliar.  Matt Moore had Tommy John surgery last summer and is expected back late this year.  Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly are recovering from smaller injuries of their own and could be back soon.  So I wouldn’t put too much credence into how the Yankees hit against Karns or Andriese.  It’s the first time facing either and one or both may be out of the rotation the next time they face the Yankees.

Rays Bullpen

The Rays perennially turn water into wine in the bullpen.  Brad Boxberger is like the 25th great reliever who got his start in San Diego.  Grant Balfour continues to spit fire while spitting fire.  Beliveau is a pretty decent second lefty in a bullpen, but with incumbent closer and main lefty Jake McGee injured right now, he’s shouldering a bigger load than usual.  Kevin Jepsen is a setup man extraordinaire who took his talents from Los Angeles to Tampa this offseason.  Frieri is on his second change-of-scenery stop and trying to remember how to pitch after forgetting last year, but so far it’s not going great.  Knowing the Rays this will probably turn out to be a great bullpen but early in the season without Jake McGee they could be vulnerable.  They also don’t create many matchup problems, dressing only one left-handed pitcher, while the Yankees start eight lefty hitters.

What I’ll be Looking for

The Yankees broke out last Sunday night against the Red Sox and hit pretty well in their three games with the Orioles.  I already mentioned they need to score early in the game, but another key for the Yankees will be plating runs without the longball.  Tropicana is a notoriously large field and the team shouldn’t count on well-timed, multi-run home runs to carry the offense all year.  The Yankees would do well to manufacture some baserunners, improve their approach with men in scoring position, and create more run-scoring opportunities overall.

 In the Field

Yankees Scheduled Starters

We’re nearly two turns through the Yankees rotation and so far I’d give it about a B-.  Though he doesn’t look like he used to, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Pineda through two starts.  Tanaka’s first start was rough and in the second start he was pitching with a giant lead.  I wouldn’t glean a whole lot from either and foresee a good old-fashioned duel between him and Odorizzi on Saturday.  Adam Warren pitched the 19-inning hangover game and threw pretty well, but nobody was actually paying attention.  This weekend he’ll have an actual major league lineup behind him which might give him a better shot to win and catch our collective eye.

Yankees Bullpen

The bullpen is the anchor for this team, but the problem entering Wednesday was getting a lead to hand off to the bullpen.  Which made it all the more sad/hilarious when the Yankees finally got that lead for the bullpen on Wednesday and…they went full Ricky Bobby on it.  But this is why we can’t have nice things.  Apart from that outing and the 19-inning game, the bullpen has been as good as advertised.  Latin pop superstar Esmil Rogers is my bullpen MVP for finishing the marathon game well after A-Rod’s bedtime.  Miller has been great and Betances a little shaky so for now, the closer-by-committee is on hold.  But I hold out hope that Girardi will return to the original plan once Betances figures out his release point.  Overall though, this bullpen can matchup with any lineup and the Rays are no different.

Rays Lineup

Rays lineups always have a certain peculiarity to them, but this one feels even more Rays-y than usual.  It has an unconventional leadoff hitter, a guy who hit .229 last year in the 3-hole, and a slightly younger version of Jose Molina hitting ninth.  The rest of the lineup is filled with Evan Longoria and some interesting young talent.  And…umm…Logan Forsythe?  Playing in Tropicana field, the Rays put a premium on defense so many of these players are valued more for their glove than their bat.  That said, they can also be pretty pesky; Asdrubal Cabrera is annoyingly good at hitting sometimes, David DeJesus always seem to get on base, and Desmond Jennings is a pest when he does get on.  The Rays want to play low-scoring games and their offense reflects that fact.

X-Factor: Steven Souza

The dude has been hitting some massive bombs.  Enough said.

Rays Bench

Nothing special on the bench.  Bobby Wilson is a defense-first catcher.  Tim Beckham is on the roster to prove once and for all that he is the draft bust everyone thinks he is.  Brandon Guyer and Mikie Mahtook are pretty solid all-around extra outfielders, a fixture on every Rays roster.  Mikie Mahtook has also taken his spot atop my “Current Favorite Big League Name List” because Chasen Shreve was disqualified upon his demotion to the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (NYY AAA team).

What I’ll be Looking for

Joe Maddon caused quite a ruckus this offseason; he joined the Cubs and might have accidentally created a groundswirl of hope for their fans.  Acquiring one of the best tacticians and player managers was a franchise-transforming move for Chicago.  On the flip side of that coin, the Rays lost one of the best managers in the game and replaced him with former Indians bullpen coach, Kevin Cash.  The Rays are one of the smartest organizations around so I wouldn’t doubt that this was a good hire.  But this weekend we’ll get our first taste of the other Cash-man in the Rays dugout and a good chance to see what’s in store during his tenure.

Prediction

I think the Yankees take this series 2-1.  They’ll be facing two of the weakest links in the Rays rotation (Karns and Andriese) and should be able to get a few wins down in the Penis of America.  In case you were wondering, so far I’m batting 1.000 on my series predictions so you can take this one to the bank, Las Vegas, or wherever you prefer they print your money.