This season has been one of riches for fans of the Yankees. The 3 1/2 games the club sits behind the Red Sox in the AL East heading into the All-Star break don’t do the first 96 games justice. Expectations were low coming out of spring training; another year into a soft rebuild was apt terminology for initial feelings. All that wishy-washy confidence for the future was quickly squashed in favor of the “now” after a 15-8 start to the season and numerous days atop the division. Propelled by the unlikeliest of heroes, there has been more than enough reason to watch Yankees baseball, especially with the injection of endless youth. With the debuts of Miguel Andujar, Dustin Fowler, Tyler Wade, Kyle Higashioka, Tyler Webb, and most recently Clint Frazier, one would think there is minimal talent left in their minor league system. For once, it’s a great to be sorely mistaken.

Jeff Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff released their mid-season top 50 list on Thursday, and three notable Yankees made the cut.

Gleyber Torres – (#7, #15 preseason)

I’ve written about Gleyber three times (1, 2, 3) in hopes of the trifecta of columns upon Torres’ MLB debut, but the best laid plans often go ary. A torn UCL in his non-throwing arm has sidelined the Yankees’ top prospect for the rest of 2017, meaning New York won’t see Torres in a third jersey this season, or watch him showcase his talents at the 2017 Futures Game (more on that event later). What we do know is that Torres has shown a refined approach at each level, resulting in appealing slash lines and projectability greater than any prospect we’ve seen debut in pinstripes in some time. The only real bug in his game is speculation on whether the raw power he has shown, can at some point turn itself into realized game power. If it doesn’t, we’re still looking at a viable second or third base option, but not with the caliber of upside shown by others prospects inside the top 15. Keep in mind, he was a 20 year old at AAA before the injury, and that speaks volumes for just how much to take this premature criticism with a grain of salt.

If second base is Torres’ position, he’ll feature one of the more advanced approaches up the middle from square one, with Starlin Castro’s $10 and $11 million owed in 2018 and 2019 respectively, the only barriers to eclipse. If third base – my personal guess for his early-career reps – becomes home, Chase Headley would likely be the odd man out and that doesn’t seem like it will be hard news to break to fans. Torres arrival in New York will be the most anticipated of any prospect the Yankees have stashed away in the recent years. More hyped than the debuts of Judge and Sanchez is correct.

Chance Adams – (#37, not ranked preseason)

Unlike Torres, there is an opportunity for Chance Adams to reach the Bronx this season. While the knocks on his game are height and the lack of number one starter upside, ceilings aren’t the only factor considered on a prospect lists. A mid 90s fastball, combined with an advanced, low 80s slider are his go-to offerings, while he mixes in a good changeup and a fringe curveball. Eric Longenhagen mentions that Adams’ command has been suppressed through his career due to his release point leaning on the side of inconsistent. Backed up by the similar 9-11% walk rates between levels during the second half of 2016 and early into 2017, success stories like Marcus Stroman always come to mind if you desire reasons for even more optimism. The inconsistent release point remains one minor reason why Longenhagen is concerned that Adams never finds the command to be a more than his floor indicates, but there is still so much to like with the 22 year old.

This feels like a rank based on floor to possibly even out some riskier picks by the BP Prospect Staff, but one I can’t criticize in the slightest. Adams sits ahead of higher-profile arms like the Cardinals’ Sandy Alcantara and Red Sox’s Jason Groome, and just behind a player whom I’ve personally grown fond of in the Indians’ organization, Triston McKenzie (32.4% strikeout rate, 2.91 ERA in 90 High-A innings). With the risk embedded in starting pitchers across the board, Adams’ 2.50 ERA across 55+ AAA innings and little worry about health are great signs, and likely the reasons why he has vaulted into the top 40 prospects on BP’s list.

Justus Sheffield – (#47, #52 preseason)

Most notable is the leap Adams made over Sheffield to the number one pitching prospect in the organization. The move was warranted after seeing the results this lefty had at AA Trenton compared to Adams, and gaining the knowledge that Sheffield has yet to find his way to Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Although his 3.09 ERA looks near pristine, the present concern is the career-low strikeout rate of 20.2%. He’s also shorter than Adams – who as we now know gets knocked for his height – and tinkered with his repertoire early this season, which could make assuming too much off his early 2017 stats a big error in the aggregate.

I like the fact Sheffield’s stock hasn’t taken a hit due to the results not resembling that of Adams. One way of looking at it is that hope for Adams increased while Sheffield’s stayed the same. That alone bodes well for the confidence surrounding his makeup, and before we know it, this southpaw might be replacing Adams at AAA due to the higher-ranked prospects promotion. Sheffield’s promotion won’t be far off afterwards.

Note: Sheffield was placed on the Minor League DL Wednesday, July 7th, with an oblique strain.

2017 Futures Game 

The Yankees had two representatives in the kick-off event of All-Star weekend: Pitcher Domingo Acevedo and outfielder Estevan Florial. The most interesting perk for a baseball nerd like myself? MLB’s Facebook page live streaming batting practice for each of teams. That’s where I got my first look at Florial in a resolution that wasn’t home video quality, and even though the common “five tools” tag on another farmhand becomes redundant, it’s tough to nix the assessment.

The first thing I noticed was the natural uppercut in Florial’s swing, similar aesthetically, but less exaggerated than the bat path of Freddie Freeman. It’s a swing that will lead to a decent amount of swing and miss, but also a lot of game power. Both were confirmed after observing the 30% strikeout rate and .502 slugging percentage he has through 74 games in A ball. In the game itself, the 19-year-old slotted in for two at bats, both against southpaws. He struck out against the Royals’ Foster Griffin and walked against the Athletics’ touted draft steal A.J. Puk. Each at bats gave us six pitches to look at, and from MLB.com’s pitch tracker, only three of the 12 were actually in the zone. Griffin elevated everything to Florial, while Puk buried everything away. Florial handled Griffin’s breaking pitches well, but whiffed on a great slider from Puk. Tough to infer much from the at bats themselves with such little exposure, but anytime a 19-year-old fits in with the caliber of young talent in this game, it’s a great sign.

Acevedo on the other hand faired much worse after allowing three runs on four hits and failing to showcase the power fastball he leverages from his 6’7″, 250 pound frame. The big righty has struggled since his promotion to AAA this season, after mowing through Trenton with ease. Only 12.1 innings into his final step before the Bronx, higher-level competition seems to have faired well off him, but as the the New York post highlighted after the game, Acevedo acknowledged the lapse and wants to learn from the experience. Compared to the youth in the Futures Game and in the Yankees’ system, Acevedo can be considered a veteran at 23 years old, and his wisdom may help to overcome any struggles sooner than later.

Some of this column’s details were reiterated from BP’s top 50 mid-season prospects list that I’ve linked to within, and will do so again here. Massive thanks to Jeff Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff for their hard work and expertise. 

A year ago I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Ben’s assessment. In fact, last September as a second straight non-playoff season wound to its end, I wrote that the Yankees were “destined for a down period, the type every other team goes through every few years, and this time there’s not much they can do about it.”

But the Yankees defied my expectations and reached the playoffs in 2015 thanks to surprising contributions from some players — notably Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran — that I had assumed to be dead money.

Still, three months ago I still assumed a short rebuild period was on the way. The Yankees’ 87 wins in 2015 didn’t seem repeatable with the team’s core aging and its depth chart stuck with some hard-to-fill holes. Brian Cashman’s commitment to youth meant the Yankees’ wouldn’t sacrifice prospects to restock the current team, which meant they would stumble through the next three years making due with what they had.

Then, Cashman went out and traded for Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro and Aroldis Chapman and parted with only a backup catcher, middle reliever and four largely insignificant prospects. Suddenly the 2016 Yankees appear better on paper than last year’s team, and 85 wins looks like the floor for the upcoming season.

After all that’s happened in the last calendar year, from a surprise playoff berth to an impressive off-season, I’ve come to believe the Yankees can in fact have it all. Cashman is walking a tightrope, trying to contend while counting down the years until Teixeira, Rodrguez, Beltran and CC Sabathia come off the books and a crop of superstars becomes available. He’s not only kept from falling during this high-wire act, he seems to have kept himself impeccably balanced.

Despite his pessimistic view of the short-term future, Ben concedes the Yankees will probably compete for a playoff spot in 2016. This will be a team without stars, but thanks to Cashman, one without serious holes, especially if a mid-rotation starting pitcher arrives before Opening Day.

Let’s fast-forward to 2017. Teixeira and Beltran will be off the books, and Greg Bird and Aaron Judge will likely inherit playing time with their departures. The Yankees will likely still have to pay Chase Headley, Brian McCann, A-Rod and Jacoby Ellsbury more money than they’re worth, but a young position-player core will be in place, and by that time the Tanaka-Severino-Pineda-Eovaldi starting rotation will have hit its prime.

There’s little sense in predicting as far into the future as 2018, but it seems reasonable to assume much of the emerging group of 20-somethings will remain assembled, with other additions to prop them up. Cashman has shown in recent years an impressive ability to acquire real big-league value without sacrificing much of consequence. Eovaldi cost David Phelps. Didi Gregorius cost Shane Greene. Starlin Castro cost Adam Warren. No general manager wins every trade, but Cashman seems to be coming close. If there’s any executive in baseball I trust to make the kinds of incremental improvements that boost a team from 80 wins to 85, or from 85 to 90, it’s the guy running the Yankees.

Ben’s forecast for a Yankee decline rests on the idea that though the 2015 core was overpaid, it provided value that will likely dwindle over the next few years. And while this is true, it doesn’t take into account the group whose value will presumably increase between now and 2018. The progression of Gregorius, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Castro, Bird and Judge, plus any additions Cashman makes over the next few off-seasons, should counteract some of the graying and keep the Yankees above water. Like the 2013-15 Yankees, the 2016-18 squads will feature several high-mileage players trending downward. But unlike recent teams, these next few will also include a promising group of youngsters.

The Yankees are rebuilding, but so far they’ve managed to prepare for the future without totally sacrificing the past. It’s a tough act to pull off, but right now it appears to be working.

They likely won’t be great team at any point during the next three years, but the Yankees might very well be better from 2016-18 than they were from 2013-15. At the very least it remains quite possible they remain above .500 and in playoff contention each season until the 2018 cavalry comes to join the prospects and restore the Yankees to glory.

Lead photo: Noah K. Murray/USA Today Sports

Adam Warren

Adam Warren, 28, profiles best as a swingman, and he filled that role last season for the Yankees. Under team control until 2019, he had a 3.29 ERA in 131.1 innings, with 17 starts. The swingman tends to be undervalued in the majors, and Warren was a savior to the bullpen, providing stability and a bridge to Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller. He was stretched out this offseason, and could have been a fourth or fifth starter for the Yankees in 2016. Warren earned 2.7 WAR last season, and 1.4 the year before while being used exclusively as a reliever.

Brendan Ryan

Ryan is an elite glove at shortstop, but was unlikely to see much playing time behind Didi Gregorious. He’s also injury prone and lacks any semblance of a hit tool. His inclusion in the deal was most likely just to balance money.

Starlin Castro

Starlin Castro broke into the league as a 20-year-old, flashing a plus bat and plus speed, along with modest power. The Cubs hoped he could develop into a top bat with 15/20 potential at shortstop. Like many top prospects, he did not live up to expectations, but that doesn’t mean Castro was a bust. Now, just 25, Castro has an impressive 991 career hits. He also has a .281 batting average and .321 on base percentage. Castro does not run as much as he used to, and has just nine steals over the past two seasons. He also has struggled making routine plays at shortstop, profiling ideally as a second baseman.

Castro also disappointed last season in the first half, eventually being benched by the Cubs. He bounced back big time in the second half though, and had a .295/.319/.464/.783 slash line after the All-Star Break. Should Castro be able to pick up where he left off in 2015, the Yankees can expect above average production at second base from Castro. While not a wizard with the glove, he did have two defensive runs saved in his first year at second base in 2015, and has the talent to be an above average player on the field. As mentioned before, Castro is only 25, despite being in the big leagues for six full seasons, and is signed to a reasonable contract through 2020. He earned just 0.8 WAR last season, but 2.8 in 2014.

The Verdict

Strictly comparing WAR values, this looks like a steal for the Cubs. In reality, though, it looks to be a very good deal for both sides. Warren is likely to be a swingman for the Cubs, and while a reliever that doesn’t pitch in the eighth or ninth inning can only be so valuable, his presence will be missed in New York. Castro fills a serious position of need for the Yankees, and provides an athletic and young duo with Didi Gregorious in the middle of the infield. Brian Cashman has stayed true to his word to get younger and cheaper, and Starlin Castro is certainly a more appealing option than free agents such as Ben Zobrist (now signed to the Cubs), Daniel Murphy, and Howie Kendrick. Castro is riskier than Warren and has had his fair share of ups and downs over his career, so there’s a chance the bottom falls out on this deal. Castro also has plenty of upside, so the risk/reward balances out pretty evenly.  The Yankees will really see a difference now at second base, with hopefully receiving some positive production at the position. All in all, this trade works out the way trades should work out, with both teams filling needs and swapping similar value players.

(Photo: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports)

All offseason long the Yankees have said that they are more likely to try to improve the team by making a trade rather than a big money free agent signing and so far they don’t appear to be bluffing. New York entered the Winter Meetings having already added outfielder Aaron Hicks from the Minnesota Twins in a trade and the club has avoided any signings beside adding Pete Kozma on a minor league contract.

Acquiring Castro ends anymore talk of the Yankees going with a platoon of Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder at second base and possibly makes the latter available (yes, more trades). Castro, 25, fits the Yankees goal of getting younger and more athletic, but because of the extension he signed with Chicago he’s not exactly cheap. He’s owed $38 million over the next four seasons with a team option for $16 million in 2020 and with no money coming from Chicago in the deal the Yankees will absorb the entirety of the contract. His addition also shows the Yankees reluctance to actually go with a rookie starter like Refsnyder, who turns 25 before next season, as Castro is close in age but is entering his seventh major league season.

Castro is a career .281/.321/.404 hitter with a career .259 TAv. He’s made the all-star team three times in six seasons with the Cubs. Castro was very productive in his first three years in the majors, but has since struggled badly in two of the past three years. In his first three big league seasons, Castro provided 10.4 WARP compared to just 5.1 WARP in his last three seasons. On the bright side, at least Castro had a strong finish in 2015 as he hit .295/.319/.464 in the second half.

Castro was the Cubs regular shortstop for years until the arrival of Addison Russell. He started 29 games at second base for Chicago in 2015. His ability to play shortstop gives the Yankees options when putting together the roster for 2016 as his presence made carrying a backup shortstop like Brendan Ryan unnecessary and likely prompted his inclusion in the deal. Depending on how comfortable the Yankees are with Ackley’s infield defense, he could be the lone backup infielder on the Yankees bench.

The Yankees parted with Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan in the deal. With Warren projected to make $1.5 million in arbitration this year and Ryan locked into a $1 million salary, the Yankees are only adding about $5.3 million to their payroll given Castro’s $7.8 million salary for 2016. $5.3 million is less than what it took for the Detroit Tigers to acquire Francisco Rodriguez, Cameron Maybin, and Mike Pelfrey individually. So the Yankees were able to fill the biggest opening in their lineup without really taking on a major financial commitment.

On the other hand, the Yankees had to give up Warren, which couldn’t have been easy. Warren’s 2.4 WARP in 2015 was higher than Castro’s 1.5 number. He did a remarkable job of filling in wherever the Yankees needed him as he started 17 games and appeared in 43 total games with a 3.43 DRA. While the Yankees had said previously that Warren would enter Spring Training as a starter, without him the rotation includes Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, and Ivan Nova. Like Ryan, Warren was also very well liked in the Yankees clubhouse. Here’s what Alex Rodriguez said about Warren pitching in the playoffs this past season.

(Photo: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports)