Tampa Bay Rays 2016 Team Rankings

True Average (TAv): .271 – 3rd in AL

Deserved Run Average (DRA): 3.91- 2nd in AL

Defensive Efficiency (DE): .721- 5th in AL

Pitching Matchups

Friday 7:10 pm ET- Chris Archer vs. Masahiro Tanaka

It has been a tumultuous start to the season for the Rays ace. Archer has a 5.16 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in his first 10 starts. With almost a third of his season in the books, the sample size is getting a little big to chalk it up to a fluke. There were signs of the old Archer returning before a 6 run drubbing by the Tigers in which Archer couldn’t escape the fourth inning.

There are some positive signs however. His strikeout rate of 11.2 would be a career best and his stuff seems undiminished. His four-seamer remains in the mid 90’s, and his nasty slider looks as sharp as ever. He is throwing his mediocre change up nearly twice as often as last year and is getting burned on it. Assuming Archer is healthy, he may just be a mechanical tweak or two from his old self. His walk and home run rates suggest location is the issue. Let’s hope he keeps struggling with that for at least one more start.

Saturday 4:10 pm ET- Matt Moore vs. Michael Pineda

Despite the ugly run prevention numbers, there has been a lot for Rays fans to like about Moore’s 2016 season. His average fastball velocity of 92.7 is his highest since his rookie year in 2012. Control has long been Moore’s main bug bear, but through nine starts he has posted a 2.8 BB/9, which would be a career low. He’s striking hitters out at almost exactly his career rate (8.6 vs. 8.5 K/9). The reason for the 5.47 ERA seems to be an abundance of home runs, but Moore’s 16.7% HR/FB rate suggests he’s been the victim of some bad luck in that respect.

Sunday 1:10 pm ET- Jake Odorizzi vs. Nathan Eovaldi

Odorizzi’s peripherals have dipped slightly across the board from his career 2015 season, however what remains is still a solid mid-rotation starter. He throws five pitches, but relies primarily on his low-90’s heater and the splitter he added prior to 2014. PECOTA sees more of the same the rest of the way, projecting 1.3 WARP and a 4.17 DRA in 21 more starts. At 26-years-old in just his third full season, there is still the chance he builds on last season’s success, but it’s probably more likely that what you see is what you get.

Bullpen

Lineup

Late-blooming outfielder Brandon Guyer (.366 TAv) continues to defy expectations, hitting .327/.410/.564 through his first 29 games played, with a TAv that ranks third in baseball among batters with 100 or more PAs. Utilityman Steve Pearce (.353 TAv), who signed a modest one year $4.75 million pact with the team this winter, is another in a long line of unlikely Rays stars plucked from the scrap heap. He has established himself as the team’s premier source of power out of Tampa Bay’s cleanup spot.

Steven Souza (.298 TAv) is belatedly proving PECOTA prescient for its optimism about the 27-year-old outfielder. Evan Longoria (.278 TAv) isn’t the star he was, but he still provides 20-homer pop and excellent defense. Brad Miller is the very definition of average at shortstop, but there’s no harm in that.

After those guys, things drop off considerably. Corey Dickerson (.245 TAv) and Logan Morrison (.227 TAv) have been truly awful since the Rays traded for them this offseason. Dickerson has kept the power since leaving Coors, but is well below the Mendoza line. Former top prospect Desmond Jennings (.212 TAv) has struggled to regain his form following an injury plagued 2015 season and is likely on thin ice as he approaches his 30th birthday. Catching tandem Curtis Casali (.216 TAv) and Hank Conger (.141 TAv) have combined for an underwhelming 2.2 adjusted FRAA in 2016, which is not nearly enough to excuse their woeful hitting.

Injuries

• Centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier broke two bones in his left hand while diving for a fly ball on Saturday against Detroit. He is expected to miss 8-10 weeks following Tuesday’s surgery. Triple-A outfielder Mikie Mahtook was promoted in his place.
• On May 14, second baseman Logan Forsythe was placed on the 15-day DL with a hairline fracture in his left shoulder. Forsythe told reporters that the best case scenario would have him return in about four weeks. He will be reevaluated in early June.
• Starter Alex Cobb and former Yankee ace Chase Whitley are both in the home stretch of their rehab from twin May 2015 Tommy John surgeries. Both Rays starters have begun a throwing program and are expected to rejoin the pitching staff sometime in July if all goes to plan.

Photo Credit: Thomas B. Shea / USA TODAY Sports

Pitching Matchups

Thursday 10:05 pm EST- Kendall Graveman vs. Ivan Nova

Graveman, a 25-year old sinkerballer who came over to the As in the Josh Donaldson trade, has gotten bombed in the early going in 2016. He’s allowed a whopping 10 long-balls in his first 37 innings, leaving him with an ugly 5.84 ERA through seven starts.

He does have an obscene 25.6% HR/FB ratio for what it’s worth, so if that normalizes he should be roughly where he was in 2015. Of course, that wasn’t very good either. Graveman’s 4.05 ERA looked solid last year, but he had the 15th worst DRA (5.71) among all starters who threw 100 innings last season.

Friday 9:35 pm EST- Sonny Gray vs. CC Sabathia

Just one season removed from making his first All Star Game and finishing third in the AL Cy Young voting, Oakland’s ace has suffered a mystifying collapse. His home run rate has more than doubled to 1.6 per nine, he leads the league with six wild pitches, and is walking batters at the highest rate of his career. A slight dip in velocity is an incomplete explanation at best.

Yes, it has only been eight starts and at 26, he is likely far from his decline years, but there’s been no signs of a turnaround as of yet. Sadly, facing this Yankee lineup may be exactly what he needs to get his confidence back.

Saturday 4:05 pm EST- Sean Manaea vs. Masahiro Tanaka

Manaea, a former Royals first rounder who came over to Oakland in last summer’s Ben Zobrist deal, had three rocky starts to begin his major league career, but showed promise in his latest against the Rangers. On Monday he held Texas to just one earned over 6 ⅔, allowing four hits and striking out three.

The big righty has thrown his 91-94 mph four seamer roughly 60% of the time this year. He also mixes in a slider and change that are considered by most scouts to be average or better MLB offerings. He cruised quickly through the minors, with just 12 starts above A-Ball on his resume. Time will tell whether he will require more seasoning.

Sunday 4:05 pm EST- Jesse Hahn vs. Michael Pineda
Hahn took over the recently demoted Eric Surkamp’s spot in the rotation Tuesday and is lined up for this start as well. Surkamp had a 6.55 ERA in five appearances as Oakland’s fifth starter, earning him a one-way trip to Triple-A Nashville Monday. Hahn himself had been optioned to the minors less than ten days earlier, but an injury to catcher Josh Phegly allowed the team to recall him before the usual limit expired.

The 26-year-old righty has struggled with his control since the spring. Hahn was a surprise omission from the Opening Day roster because of his issues, and was once again demoted after just two starts on April 30 and May 7. On the season he has seven walks and just six strikeouts in 18 ⅔ innings pitched. Although his run prevention has been in line with his career numbers, his 6.00 DRA and 5.60 FIP would seem to indicate that he is a disaster waiting to happen.

Bullpen

Oakland has had one of the better bullpens in baseball by DRA with a 3.78 mark that ranks fifth in MLB.

Lineup

Neither Billy Burns (.225 TAv) nor Coco Crisp (.260 TAv) have the on base skills to be effective table-setters at this point, but are regularly penciled into the top two spots in Bob Melvin’s lineup. The 36-year-old Crisp is having a modest bounce-back after an injury plagued 2015 season.

Impending free agent rightfielder Josh Reddick (.301 TAv) has been the rock in the middle of Oakland’s order the past few years and remains a consistent source of left-handed power. Fellow sluggers Stephen Vogt (.243 TAv) and Khris Davis (.268 TAv) have not produced as expected, however, which is a major reason the Athletics rank 23rd in the majors with a .141 ISO through their first 38 contests. Versatile veteran Danny Valencia (.333 TAv), who was claimed off waivers from Toronto last August, has provided a spark in limited time.

Jed Lowrie (.248 TAv) and Marcus Semien (.284 TAv) were a competent, if unexciting, middle infield duo before the former went down with a right shin contusion. Of course, that’s always the risk of expecting Lowrie to play a regular role.

Billy Butler’s (.193 TAv) three year $30 million contract somehow looks infinitely worse than it was signed, despite being one of the most panned deals of the 2014-2015 offseason. With no power, on base skills, speed, or defensive value, he literally has nothing remaining to offer a baseball team. The trade that sent Drew Pomeranz to San Diego for first baseman Yonder Alonso (.217 TAv) is also starting to look like a major blunder for Billy Beane.

Injuries

The Athletics currently have the most players on the disabled list of any major league club with eleven. Here are the highlights:

– Two A’s starters, Chris Bassitt and Felix Doubront, have undergone TJ surgery thus far. Another, Henderson Alvarez, has been recovering from a 2015 shoulder surgery. He was recently pulled from what was supposed to be his last rehab start and his status is uncertain. A fourth, Jarrod Parker, hasn’t pitched since 2013 because of three separate elbow surgeries.

– Reliever R.J. Alvarez is yet another elbow surgery casualty. He has been on the 60-day DL since March 25. Liam Hendricks rounds out the list of pitchers on the DL with a tricep strain expected to keep him out at least two weeks.

– Outfielder Sam Fuld and first baseman Mark Canha will miss the remainder of the season following shoulder and hip surgery respectively. Infielder Eric Sogard is expected to sit out the first two months with an injured knee. In addition, Jed Lowrie decided to take his annual DL trip on May 10, but hopes to return to the lineup by the end of the month. The most recent ailment is the inflammation in Josh Phegley’s right knee which landed him on the 15-day DL Monday.

Photo Credit: Evan Habeeb / USA TODAY Sports

Pitching Matchups

Friday at 7:05 pm ET- Michael Pineda vs. Rick Porcello

Porcello breezed through seven scoreless innings Saturday against the beleaguered Yankees lineup. He struck out six and didn’t allow an extra base hit all night. Even before the Sox pummeled New York’s middle relievers for six runs in the sixth and seventh inning, it didn’t feel like the Yankees ever had a shot.

Big Mike’s performance that start was infinitely uglier than his pitching line indicates. He threw 50 pitches in his first two innings and had more than 90 by the end of the fourth. It was hard to watch Pineda struggle through that outing. Nothing at all is working for him at the moment. He was expected to be a front of the rotation starter for this team, and unless he figures out a way to get back to being that guy, the Yankees chances of contention this year are small.

Saturday at 4:05 pm ET- Nathan Eovaldi vs. David Price

As depressing as the series sweep was, it was nice to see the Yankees knock Price around Sunday. Price finished the night as the AL leader in both hits and earned runs allowed. The ERA continues to soar, now up to 6.14, but his peripherals remain on point, so his FIP of 2.88 is actually below his career mark. With three vintage Price starts and three disasters in 2016, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen when he takes the mound again Saturday.

Eovaldi followed up the best start of his Yankee career with his worst of 2016, allowing 10 hits, six runs, and three walks against the Red Sox, all season highs. Another 8-7 slug-fest seems unlikely for the second go-round given the usual caliber of Price and Eovaldi’s work on the mound.

Sunday at 8:05 pm ET- Luis Severino vs. Steven Wright

Wright has dominated the Yankees in his three career appearances against the team, limiting them to a 1.50 ERA in 18 IP. This current crop of Yankees has a combined .136/.224/.318 slash mark against him, although both Beltran and Teixeira have taken him deep. His biggest weakness is that he walks a ton of batters, 4.2 per nine in 2016 and 3.6 per nine for his career. The Yankees haven’t hit for much power this season, but they’re a patient group of veterans who will take their walks.

With all the talk of demoting Severino to the minors, this could be an important start for the 22-year old. GM Brian Cashman recently acknowledged that sending down Sevvy was a possibility, telling reporters, “If we feel that’s what has to take place, that’s definitely an avenue that’s open. Hopefully it doesn’t have to come to that, but if that’s what’s in his best interest, and therefore our best interest, that’s something I have no problem doing.”

Bullpen

– In Tuesday’s 4-1 loss to the White Sox, Carson Smith threw nine pitches in his 2016 debut. He was activated Junichi Tazawa threw 23, and Matt Barnes threw 22.

– Koji Uehara and Craig Kimbrel each posted a scoreless inning in Wednesday’s 5-2 victory, throwing 11 and 12 pitches respectively.

– The Red Sox pen received a workout Thursday after starter Henry Owens was pulled in the fourth inning. Heath Hembree threw 43 pitches, Barnes had 23, 19 for Tazawa, and another 34 for Robbie Ross. Boston is currently carrying eight relievers, so they have more than enough depth to soak up games like this.

Lineup

We are all pretty familiar with what the Red Sox offense can do after they scored 20 runs off of Yankee pitching in the previous series. David Ortiz and Christian Vazquez hit game-winning homers off of Dellin “The Mountain that Pitches” Betances on Friday and Sunday. Jackie Bradley had five RBI over the weekend, while Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts each added three.

Here’s a look at how the Red Sox lineup has performed this season (minimum 20 PA) ranked by True Average:

Injuries

Yankees:

– Brett Gardner is day to day with a sore elbow since being hit with a pitch Wednesday. Ben Gamel was called up to provide some outfield depth.

– Alex Rodriguez was placed on the disabled list Wednesday with a right hamstring strain. He’s expected to miss several weeks. He’ll join Greg Bird and Mason Williams on the 15-day DL, while Bryan Mitchell and Branden Pinder are residents of the 60-day DL.

– Aroldis Chapman is expected to return to the team Monday after the conclusion of the series against the Sox when his 30 day suspension for violating the league’s domestic violence policy is finished.

Red Sox:

– Pablo Sandoval underwent season-ending shoulder surgery on Tuesday. He has been on the 15-day DL since April 11th.

– Boston also has a pair of young starters on the 15 day DL who are well on their way to rejoining the team in Joe Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez. Kelly is expected to make a rehab start for Triple-A Pawtucket Friday, while Rodriguez completed his second on Tuesday. Kelly was placed on the disabled list April 20th with a shoulder impingement. Rodriguez has been out since spring training with a dislocated knee.

– Brandon Workman, currently rehabbing from June 2015 TJ surgery, is their only player on the 60 day DL.

Lead photo: Evan Habeeb / USA Today Sports

Pitching Matchups

Friday at 7:10 pm- Henry Owens vs. Masahiro Tanaka

The 23-year-old Owens, who was called up to replace injured starter Joe Kelly, had a rough start to his 2016 campaign on Sunday against the Astros. He threw 86 pitches in 3 ⅓ innings, walking four and allowing three earned runs. Control has always been his Achilles heel; he’s averaged four free passes per nine as a professional.

Even at his best, Owens is not the most imposing opponent. His fastball sits 88-90 and is extremely hittable. His best pitch is an outstanding changeup. He’ll also mix in an occasional OK curveball. PECOTA projects a 4.57 DRA and 0.4 WARP in 74 ⅓ innings of work this year.

Saturday at 7:10 pm- Rick Porcello vs. Michael Pineda

Porcello has been slightly less disappointing in his second season with the Red Sox. While the four-year $82.5 million extension he signed last season may not be a bargain, it no longer looks like a Sandoval-esque sunk cost. In fact, Boston has won all four of Porcello’s starts in April. The long ball is still an issue in the early going (five in 25 ⅔ IP). It’s worth noting that Jacoby Ellsbury has destroyed Porcello in the past. In 26 PAs he has 12 hits, 4 home runs, and two doubles. Brett Gardner and Carlos Beltran also have strong career numbers vs. Porcello, while Mark Teixeira has slashed .182/.250/.182 in 24 PAs.

Porcello’s primary weapon is his 90 mph sinker, which he’s thrown 44.7% of the time in 2016 according to Pitch f/x. He also mixes in a four seamer, cutter, slider, and change. PECOTA foresees a modest rebound from last season’s disaster, with a 4.22 DRA and 1.4 WARP in 145 IP.

Sunday at 8:05 pm- David Price vs. Nathan Eovaldi

A 5.76 ERA probably wasn’t what most Sox fans were envisioning from their newly signed ace/savior, but the good news is that Price appears to have been the victim of some bad luck in the early going. All of his peripherals are right in line with career norms, and he’s leading the American League in strikeouts and Ks per nine.

For what it’s worth, he actually hasn’t been credited with a loss either, although he has had two very ugly starts, most recently allowing eight earned in 3 ⅔ innings on April 21 against Tampa Bay. He was dominant in his last outing, striking out 14 in 8 IP, but it was against the woeful Braves, so that should be taken with a grain of salt.

Still just 30 and coming off his best season since his 2012 Cy Young campaign, Price seems like an unlikely candidate for a sharp decline at this stage. PECOTA expects a 3.45 DRA and three WARP in 160 2/3 innings.

Bullpen

The Red Sox used their pen sparingly in their recent series against the Braves. David Price gave the team 8 strong innings against the Braves on Wednesday, with Pat Light pitching the ninth. Tommy Layne threw 23 pitches while Heath Hembree threw 15 in Thursday’s 5-3 loss. Everyone else looks to be rested and ready to go for Boston. They are currently carrying 8 relievers.

Offense

David Ortiz (.320 TAv) and Dustin Pedroia (.285 TAv) have turned in vintage performances in the early going. Ortiz looks like he could do this for another decade in he wanted to. For all the hype about the Red Sox talented youngsters, it’s the old guard that is still carrying the Sox offense thus far in 2016. Mookie Betts (.268 TAv) and Xander Bogaerts (.270 TAv) have been solid in the first month, but haven’t yet kicked it into high gear.

The biggest surprise of April has been Travis Shaw (.326 TAv), who replaced Pablo Sandoval at the hot corner out of spring training despite having only 59 professional starts at the position to his name coming into 2016. The unheralded former ninth-round pick has exceeded all expectations in his climb up the minor league ladder. While this level of production isn’t sustainable, it’s not out of the question that he develops into a solid regular.

Hanley Ramirez (.233 TAv) continues to struggle mightily at the plate, even after returning to the infield and reportedly turning over a new leaf with his work ethic. Brock Holt (.262 TAv) has been miscast as an everyday left fielder. Defensive specialists Jackie Bradley (.242 TAv) and Christian Vazquez (.207) round out the cast.

The Boston bench currently consists of veteran backup catcher Ryan Hanigan (.207 TAv), former Yankee Chris Young (.198 TAv) as the fourth outfielder, and utility infielder Josh Rutledge (.391 TAv in very limited time).

Lead photo: Tim Heitman / USA Today Sports

They will run into a Mets squad that’d won eight in a row before dropping their last two games to Miami, totaling just three runs across the pair of contests. After a wild offensive binge, they were held in check by he-of-4.22 ERA Adam Conley and he-of-Tom-Koehler Tom Koehler.

The Yankees will throw a bit more at the Amazin’s than Conley, Koehler, and Justin Nicolino.

C.C. Sabathia is fresh off his best outing of the season, tossing 111 pitches over 6.2 innings, and yielding just three hits, two walks, and striking out six.

There’s reason to believe that can continue.

Sabathia’s Adj Runs ranks fifth in the bigs at 17.48. This means for a myriad of reasons – catcher framing, temperature, quality of hitters to name a few – over 17 extra runs have been added to his ledger.

The biggest contributor to this number is ballpark factor. Sabathia has surrendered 9.51 additional runs due to the stadium he’s pitching in, which ranks ninth in the major leagues.

It’s no surprise to see a Yankees starter on this list given the nature of Yankee Stadium, which produces home runs like DJ Khaled produces hits (another one!).

That said, Sabathia clearly has been one of the pitchers hit the hardest at Yankee Stadium. His mark is right there with Rockies pitcher Chad Bettis, who DFS players know to automatically stack against every five days.

The other two Yankees pitchers with the highest such marks are the other two pitchers scheduled to start against the Mets – Michael Pineda (6.41), and Masahiro Tanaka (5.62).

To state what you probably already know, Citi Field is a lot more friendly to pitchers than Yankee Stadium. It’s just that these three pitchers have suffered the most from pitching with short fences, especially Sabathia. There’s reason to have confidence in the Yankees’ rotation.

While the pitching should hold up it’s also important to note the Yankees’ league-leading Guillen Number (% of runs via the home run) of 47.94. The Yankees will dodge the formidable Jacob deGrom (4.31 WARP), but still have to face Matt Harvey (3.26) and Noah Syndergaard (2.20)

When it comes to balls in play, the Mets and Yankees have had similar years. They rank 28th and 29th in Ground Ball % and BABIP, and 4th and 3rd in Fly Ball %, respectively. They only differ in line drives, where the Mets rank in the middle of the pack and the Yankees are in the bottom tier.

That would seem to back up the fact that the Mets will have the advantage at Citi Field. That, and three sellout crowds.

Cespedes vs. A-Rod. Conforto vs. Bird. Clippard vs. Betances. Familia vs. Miller. These two teams stack up quite well, and we should be in for a fun three-day ride.

(Photo: Kim Klement-USA Today Sports)

Sure, Rays vs. Yankees doesn’t hold a candle to the rich history and systemic hatred between Boston and New York.  But in my estimation, the recent narrative for this rivalry has been just as compelling; Rays vs. Yankees is a study in contrasts.  The Rays succeed with a small payroll, nearly no fans, and young, homegrown talent, the Yankees with all the money, all the fans, and every old veteran they could find.

For all the success these two teams had over the past seven years, both now find themselves in transitional periods.  As I outlined in my introductory Bronx BP post, the Yankees are experiencing an inevitable downswing after 20+ years of unparalleled success.  The Rays meanwhile operate like a small business.  This past calendar year, that small business lost their CEO, CFO, and lead engineer: Andrew Friedman, Joe Maddon, and David Price.  Under new management this year, they hope to maintain stability, though years of poor drafting makes their immediate future uncertain.

Friday we get the first taste of this rivalry in 2015 and there’s a whole bunch of new names to familiarize yourself with so buckle up.

Note: all stats from 2014 unless otherwise mentioned (next week I will begin to use 2015 stats)

At the Plate

Yankees Lineup

Hey, there’s that offense we were all looking for!  The bats finally perked up last Sunday and during the series in Baltimore.  I told you it wasn’t the end of the world.  We saw an A-Bomb, a few Tex-messages, and Stephen Drew going all STEPHEN DREW on the way to 14, 6, 3, and 5 runs over the last four games.  But there’s still room for improvement and a few offensive issues in need of some attention.

• Carlos Beltrán? Still asleep.  Somebody needs to wake that fool up.
• Score some runs early! The Yankees have been playing behind in almost every game and their starters might feel more comfortable pitching with a lead.
• What the hell is the Yankees batting order?  The lineup looks different every day and yes there are a lot of old guys that need days off.  But as an example of the inconsistency, A-Rod has hit everywhere between 2nd and 7th this year.  Joe Girardi is still tinkering and dealing with injuries but it’d be a good thing if he came out of the weekend with a better idea of his daily lineup.

X-Factor: Brett Gardner

First things first, let’s make sure he’s healthy.  Seeing Gardner play all weekend would be a positive for the Yankees.  Secondly, his offensive and defensive skills translate the best to Tropicana field (as do Ellsbury’s but I chose Brett), with lots of space in the outfield.  If his wrist is at full strength, there could be some extra-base hits and web gems in store from him this weekend.

Yankees Bench

The positives: Chris Young is still crushing the ball.  He’s a weapon off the bench and when he gets starts against lefties, though they see none this weekend.  Jack Ryan James Ryan John Ryan Murphy looks like he could be a great defensive catcher.  He’s eviscerated the running game when he’s behind the dish and sooner or later we’ll have to check in on his framing stats.

The negatives: Gregorio Petit – he’s hitting .182 and making errors.  The only thing going for him is he plays multiple positions but it remains to be seen how much longer that will keep him on the team.  Garrett Jones is a DH-type on a team with 3 other DH-types.  His experiment in the outfield last weekend didn’t go very well and Mark Teixeira has first base locked down.

Rays Scheduled Starters

Jake Odorizzi is the ace of my fantasy baseball team so far, has a nasty split-change, and will be a handful for the Yankees to hit on Saturday.  According to the Baseball Prospectus Annual, Nate Karns has some good raw stuff but lacks command.  He got touched up for 8 runs in his first two starts and has already walked 6 on the year.  Two of Matt Andriese’s best comparables are old friends David Phelps and Adam Warren so that gives you a good idea of what to expect from him.  Best case scenario he ends up a fifth starter but more likely has a career bouncing around as a swingman.

The Rays are dealing with a number of injuries in their rotation right now and that’s why two of these starters look unfamiliar.  Matt Moore had Tommy John surgery last summer and is expected back late this year.  Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly are recovering from smaller injuries of their own and could be back soon.  So I wouldn’t put too much credence into how the Yankees hit against Karns or Andriese.  It’s the first time facing either and one or both may be out of the rotation the next time they face the Yankees.

Rays Bullpen

The Rays perennially turn water into wine in the bullpen.  Brad Boxberger is like the 25th great reliever who got his start in San Diego.  Grant Balfour continues to spit fire while spitting fire.  Beliveau is a pretty decent second lefty in a bullpen, but with incumbent closer and main lefty Jake McGee injured right now, he’s shouldering a bigger load than usual.  Kevin Jepsen is a setup man extraordinaire who took his talents from Los Angeles to Tampa this offseason.  Frieri is on his second change-of-scenery stop and trying to remember how to pitch after forgetting last year, but so far it’s not going great.  Knowing the Rays this will probably turn out to be a great bullpen but early in the season without Jake McGee they could be vulnerable.  They also don’t create many matchup problems, dressing only one left-handed pitcher, while the Yankees start eight lefty hitters.

What I’ll be Looking for

The Yankees broke out last Sunday night against the Red Sox and hit pretty well in their three games with the Orioles.  I already mentioned they need to score early in the game, but another key for the Yankees will be plating runs without the longball.  Tropicana is a notoriously large field and the team shouldn’t count on well-timed, multi-run home runs to carry the offense all year.  The Yankees would do well to manufacture some baserunners, improve their approach with men in scoring position, and create more run-scoring opportunities overall.

 In the Field

Yankees Scheduled Starters

We’re nearly two turns through the Yankees rotation and so far I’d give it about a B-.  Though he doesn’t look like he used to, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Pineda through two starts.  Tanaka’s first start was rough and in the second start he was pitching with a giant lead.  I wouldn’t glean a whole lot from either and foresee a good old-fashioned duel between him and Odorizzi on Saturday.  Adam Warren pitched the 19-inning hangover game and threw pretty well, but nobody was actually paying attention.  This weekend he’ll have an actual major league lineup behind him which might give him a better shot to win and catch our collective eye.

Yankees Bullpen

The bullpen is the anchor for this team, but the problem entering Wednesday was getting a lead to hand off to the bullpen.  Which made it all the more sad/hilarious when the Yankees finally got that lead for the bullpen on Wednesday and…they went full Ricky Bobby on it.  But this is why we can’t have nice things.  Apart from that outing and the 19-inning game, the bullpen has been as good as advertised.  Latin pop superstar Esmil Rogers is my bullpen MVP for finishing the marathon game well after A-Rod’s bedtime.  Miller has been great and Betances a little shaky so for now, the closer-by-committee is on hold.  But I hold out hope that Girardi will return to the original plan once Betances figures out his release point.  Overall though, this bullpen can matchup with any lineup and the Rays are no different.

Rays Lineup

Rays lineups always have a certain peculiarity to them, but this one feels even more Rays-y than usual.  It has an unconventional leadoff hitter, a guy who hit .229 last year in the 3-hole, and a slightly younger version of Jose Molina hitting ninth.  The rest of the lineup is filled with Evan Longoria and some interesting young talent.  And…umm…Logan Forsythe?  Playing in Tropicana field, the Rays put a premium on defense so many of these players are valued more for their glove than their bat.  That said, they can also be pretty pesky; Asdrubal Cabrera is annoyingly good at hitting sometimes, David DeJesus always seem to get on base, and Desmond Jennings is a pest when he does get on.  The Rays want to play low-scoring games and their offense reflects that fact.

X-Factor: Steven Souza

The dude has been hitting some massive bombs.  Enough said.

Rays Bench

Nothing special on the bench.  Bobby Wilson is a defense-first catcher.  Tim Beckham is on the roster to prove once and for all that he is the draft bust everyone thinks he is.  Brandon Guyer and Mikie Mahtook are pretty solid all-around extra outfielders, a fixture on every Rays roster.  Mikie Mahtook has also taken his spot atop my “Current Favorite Big League Name List” because Chasen Shreve was disqualified upon his demotion to the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (NYY AAA team).

What I’ll be Looking for

Joe Maddon caused quite a ruckus this offseason; he joined the Cubs and might have accidentally created a groundswirl of hope for their fans.  Acquiring one of the best tacticians and player managers was a franchise-transforming move for Chicago.  On the flip side of that coin, the Rays lost one of the best managers in the game and replaced him with former Indians bullpen coach, Kevin Cash.  The Rays are one of the smartest organizations around so I wouldn’t doubt that this was a good hire.  But this weekend we’ll get our first taste of the other Cash-man in the Rays dugout and a good chance to see what’s in store during his tenure.

Prediction

I think the Yankees take this series 2-1.  They’ll be facing two of the weakest links in the Rays rotation (Karns and Andriese) and should be able to get a few wins down in the Penis of America.  In case you were wondering, so far I’m batting 1.000 on my series predictions so you can take this one to the bank, Las Vegas, or wherever you prefer they print your money.