I’m here to tell you that Jordan Montgomery has a twin brother. His name is Josh Rogers. Like Montgomery, most Yankee fans haven’t heard of Josh Rogers. This great scouting video of Rogers currently has 97 views:

Like Jordan Montgomery, Josh Rogers is a tall left-handed pitcher with a low-90s fastball with strong secondary pitches. While he doesn’t have Montgomery’s fourth pitch, his control is better. Like Montgomery, he was a late-round college pick out of a boring big program (Louisville, which has a stronger reputation than it’s actual record in producing major league players).

Like Jordan Montgomery, Josh Rogers has dominated the minor leagues. Rogers has worked his way up to Triple-A in just three years, despite missing most of 2017 to bone chips in his elbow. In 34 innings over six starts, Rogers has an ERA of 3.15, over a strikeout per innings, and a solid walk rate.

Obviously, the Yankees are not on the verge of calling up Josh Rogers. He’s still shaking off the elbow surgery, and Domingo German deserves to be ahead of him in the depth charts. However, if Sonny Gray continues to falter, or the Yankees suffer another injury before Jordan Montgomery returns, Josh Rogers could be the next hidden gem in the Yankee system.

Even with exodus, several players are still unprotected. Here are the best of them:

• 1B Mike Ford
• 1B Ryan McBroom
• UT Abiatal Avelino
• LHP Nestor Cortes
• RHP Erik Swanson
• RHP Nick Green
• RHP J.P. Feyereisen
• LHP Stephen Tarpley
• RHP Jordan Foley
• RHP Raynel Espinal
• RHP Jose Mesa

Let’s start with the position players. No one is going to miss McBroom or Avelino. Mike Ford, on the other hand, could be a big loss. Ford hit .270/.404/.471 between Double-A and Triple-A, with phenomenal 14% strikeout rate and 16% walk rate. Ford has a long history in the minors of hitting well, but added power to his game for the first time in 2017 while playing in a very tough Double-A ballpark for power hitters. For some reason, the Yankees opted for Garrett Cooper and Ji Man Choi over Ford when they desperately needed bodies at 1b/DH this summer. Maybe they know something we don’t. The stat line suggests Ford could be a very good major league hitter. Some club will claim him and give him a chance to prove it next season.

We can divide the pitchers into roughly two groups. Swanson and Feyereisen are both high-minors relief pitchers who were a notch below the cut to make the Yankees 40-man roster (and below the players worth trading for some return). The Rule V draft is designed to benefit guys like these two, and they will likely get claimed by some major league team looking for the next Nick Goody. The Yankees lose a few of these guys every year, and that’s fine.

The second group is more interesting. Espinal, Green, Foley, Tarpley, and Mesa were all standout performers in the low minor leagues this season. Tarpley is a lefty and will be given a chance by some team to make the roster out of Spring Training. The others are strikeout righties who some team might want to take a chance on but probably won’t stick with the team all season. Think Ivan Nova.

Overall, the Yankees limited the damage by freeing up roster spots through trades. Just one month ago it looked like the Yankees would have to leave players like McKinney, Cave, and Estrada unprotected. They even found room for Loaisiga, whom most of us are learning about for the first time. Good job, Cashman.

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell / USA TODAY Sports

Besides bringing the wonderful feeling of baseball back, spring training can also determine starting jobs, playing time, and who makes the major league roster come April. Stats don’t really matter, but what occurs during the spring won’t be insignificant. Here at BP Bronx, we’ll bring you a weekly ST recap, complete with game summaries and other news that may prove to be important.

Games

Game 1

Luis Severino kicked off the spring with a promising 96 mph fastball. Unfortunately, he took a turn for the worse in the second inning, leaving after just 1 1/3 innings of work with five runs to his credit. The rest of the game featured a bevy of relievers, most notably Nick Rumbelow and Nick Goody. The two young arms also had less-than-stellar outings.

The Yankees had a much better day on offense than they did on the mound. Starlin Castro looked good, making a great play in the third inning. Top prospect Jorge Mateo hit a triple on a ball crushed to left field, showcasing both his surprising pop and top of the scale speed. Austin Romine and Dustin Ackley also had fine days at the plate. The final score doesn’t really matter, though it’s worth noting that the Yankees got the win on a walk off.

Game 2

There’s not a whole lot that went on in this game, and the fact that it wasn’t televised makes elaborating on an ugly loss even harder. Still, there’s a few things worth noting in the 13-4 loss. Alex Rodriguez made news when he hit a two-run home run in the first inning. Although it doesn’t sound overly impressive, think about this—a forty-year-old that hasn’t hit live pitching since October managed to hit a ball out on the first swing of the new year. A-Rod is pretty good, I guess.

Two Yankees arms with some question marks going into this Spring made their debuts on Thursday in Ivan Nova and Jacob Lindgren. Nova was fine in two innings, though Lindgren was hit hard. He walked three and hit a batter before being pulled after recording just one out, and the Phillies ended up scoring four runs off of him. James Pazos, vying for a spot in the bullpen, also put up an ugly line of three runs in just two thirds of an inning. Not the greatest of days for the Yankees.

Game 3

The Yankees faced the Tigers again on Friday, but forgot to bring their bats this time around. Almost nothing happened at the plate, with the most notable occurrence being a double and a walk from Didi Gregorious.

Bryan Mitchell started the game on the mound, going two smooth and striking out two. It was a promising start for Mitchell, and this spring could play a big role in where he ends up to start 2016. Surprising Yankee Vinnie Pestano had a day to forget, surrendering three runs. Fellow surprising Yankee Kirby Yates had a better outing, throwing a clean frame. James Kaprielian made some noise in his outing, sitting at 94-96 MPH over two perfect innings. Kaprielian has been in the 90-93 range in the past, so this is an interesting development. This gain could be a product of him throwing just two innings, but if the gains are real he could be more than a third or fourth starter. The main return for this offseason’s controversial Justin Wilson trade, Luis Cessa, threw two clean innings as well.

Game 4

Saturday’s game brought some much needed excitement back to spring training, featuring the core of the Yankees’ future. Mateo showed his elite speed on Wednesday, and flashed power in this game with a home run. Aaron Judge also impressed with an opposite field three-run home run in the seventh inning. He won’t break camp with the team, but a hot start could get him into the majors by the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Rodriguez continued to look locked in with a 2-2 day (and a walk) to raise his batting average to .750.

Saturday’s pitching performances were pretty unspectacular, though Chasen Sheve and Johnny Barbato turned in nice innings. Barbato’s looked good early on in the Spring—he came over to the Yankees last offseason in the Shawn Kelley deal. Shreve is looking to bounce back from a disastrous end to 2015, and started 2016 on a high note. Mark Montgomery gave up three runs in an inning of work, which is a bit disappointing after a strong first game.

Game 5

Tanaka time made its grand return on Sunday, as the Yankees’ ace threw two clean innings. The results didn’t really matter here—the key is that Tanaka’s velocity was normal and he came away healthy. It looks like Tanaka sat around 89-91, which is where he was at this point last season. In other pitching news, Branden Pinder and James Pazos were a bit shaky in their appearances, continuing a rough start to the Spring for them. Former next Yankees great Vicente (previously Jose) Campos went a scoreless frame, sitting at about 91-93.

Mateo stayed hot with a single, walk and stolen base, while Austin Romine raised his batting average to .500 with two doubles. The talk of the game was Rob Refsnyder, who played third base for the first time in his career. He made two solid plays, but throwing away a ball on what turned out to be a foul ball. Overall, it wasn’t a bad audition for Refsnyder, who figures to get some more looks at the hot corner this Spring. He’s been doing everything possible to make the team, and also managed to steal two bases

General News:

Aroldis Chapman: You’ve likely already heard about Chapman’s thirty game suspension which will keep him out until early-May. He’ll be seen around camp, but isn’t allowed to throw in a live game. Chasen Shreve and some young relief pitching will need to step up in Chapman’s absence.

Rob Refsnyder: The idea has been entertained on and off, but finally it looks like Refsnyder will get a chance to try out third base. He and Castro will both get reps at the hot corner this spring with the Yankees looking for a backup third baseman. The next man up is Peter Kozma, owner of a 7 wRC+ last season, so the Yankees hope they can find a solution with one of the former two players. Refsnyder likely doesn’t have the arm for the hot corner, but it’s worth a shot anyway. He looked decent there in his first game on Sunday and it’s currently his best ticket onto the final roster.

Aaron Judge: Judge appears to have incorporated a leg kick into his swing this offseason, with the help of new hitting coach Alan Cockrell. Although change isn’t always a good thing, this should help Judge with his timing a bit. The top prospect has also spent the offseason working on his pitch recognition, something that really hurt his performance last season in Triple-A.

Watching Aaron Judge in batting practice just keeps getting better and better.https://t.co/K5b4896ezT

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) March 1, 2016

Injuries:

Nathan Eovaldi: Eovaldi suffered a sore groin early in camp, and it prevented him from making his Spring debut on Saturday. He insisted that it isn’t something that would have cost him a start in the regular season, and a bullpen session went smoothly. He should be fine for his next scheduled start.

Masahiro Tanaka: There were some concerns earlier in March when Tanaka said that his Opening Day status was up in the air. Luckily, it seems that things have gone well so far with Tanaka making a 61 pitch bullpen last Sunday and throwing two clean innings this Sunday.

Brett Gardner: Gardner is still recovering from a bone bruise in his wrist from the Wild Card Game, and has yet to appear in a game. He’s been fine in batting practice, and Joe Girardi hopes he will be back around March 14th. Still, this is a situation to monitor…wrist injuries are tough for batters and we saw what happened to Gardner last season when his other wrist was injured.

Position Battle Updates:

5th Starter: C.C. Sabathia is the heavy favorite for this job, and it would have to a failure from him, opposed to success from Nova, to force the Yankees to change the guard. Sabathia has yet to pitch in a game, but Nova threw two smooth innings.

Backup catcher: Romine had a strong start to the spring and is currently hitting .500. His defense is fine, but the Yankees will need to see some life out of his bat to be confident that he’s worth a roster spot come April. Right now it’s probably Gary Sanchez’s job to lose, with the Yankees keeping a close eye on his defense. Sanchez’s glove could lose him the job, while Romine’s bat could win it.

Backup Infielder: The Yankees appear to be aware of how rough the third base situation is in, and are throwing all of their chips on the table. Refsnyder and Castro are getting chances at third base, with the hope that they can get the backup job opposed to using a roster spot on Kozma.

Final 3 Bullpen Spots: This job was wide open going into the spring, and will continue to be wide open throughout. Bryan Mitchell is a favorite to make the club, though there are some rumors that he’ll go to Triple-A and work as a starter. The team would like to see Lindgren make the final roster, but he’s had an awful start to Spring Training. Goody and Pazos didn’t look so great either, though it’s a long way until a decision is made here.

Lead photo: Kim Klement / USA Today Sports

That changed in 2015. Luis Severino and Greg Bird both reached the major leagues and performed admirably. Bird was worth 1.1 WARP in 46 games, hitting .261/.343/.539 to go along with 11 home runs and a 10.7 percent walk rate. Bird is the heir apparent to Mark Teixeira at first base, and figured to be his eventual replacement at some point in 2016 when Teixeira’s propensity for injury comes into play. Yet fate is a cruel mistress indeed. Bird is out for the season following surgery to repair a torn labrum. He reportedly felt some pain in his shoulder towards the end of last year, and now we know why. There are worse problems for a team to have than not having a strong Plan B at first base. Far, far worse problems. That doesn’t make the loss sting any less.

Bird missing the season hurts us as fans for two reasons. The first is the absolute dread that comes with the knowledge that at some point, somehow, Teixeira will cash in his frequent flier miles and limp to the disabled list. That’s when Dustin Ackley, or Chase Headley, or even Brian McCann could find himself spending far too much time at first base.

The second is that we love to see prospects succeed, especially when the system hasn’t produced a strong talent in years. Bird is part of a holy trinity of prospects that also includes Severino and Aaron Judge that Yankees fans have hung their hat on as their source of hope for the future. The ancient likes of Texieira and Carlos Beltran are finally starting to filter out of the roster. The next generation of Yankees is on the horizon, but it just hit a major bump in the road.

So, how should one deal with the sadness of losing an exciting young player like Bird to injury for a whole year?

Well, not exactly.

1. Remember the other cool stuff happening with the Yankees
   We may not get to watch Bird mash dingers for a while. That blows. However, we do get to watch Severino make batters look life fools all year. We get to see if Starlin Castro turns back into a productive hitter while forming half of the youngest double play combinations that the Yankees have had in eons. Plus, Aaron Judge should be hitting the Bronx at some point this year, and if you like homers, you’re going to love him.
2. Don’t forget that prospects break your heart
   Bird was really good during his big league cameo in 2015. That doesn’t mean he would have been really good in 2016. One of the complaints that scouts have with Bird is that he’s often too selective at the plate, which can easily put him in two-strike counts, and that leads to lots of strikeouts. The pitchers of the AL East could theoretically still figure out the secret to dismantling Bird as they see him for a second time. As awesome as he is, Bird isn’t a proven big-league product just yet.
3. Think about the Orioles’ pitching staff
   Baltimore is set to roll out a rotation of Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman, and, well, theoretically someone has to be the fifth starter, right? Those guys are going to have to pitch in Yankee Stadium pretty often. And Camden Yards, for that matter. Isn’t that lovely?
4. Think about the back of the Yankees’ bullpen 
   Mmmm, strikeouts. The Yankees will be playing quite a few six-inning games this year. Who needs the Royals?
5. Look up some of the prospects still kicking around on the farm
   Jorge Mateo is faster than a speeding bullet, and he plays shortstop. James Kaprielian is going to move through the ranks rather quickly. Dustin Fowler plays center field and does just about everything well, including hitting. Jacob Lindgren will finally ascend to the major leagues, elbow-embedded bone chip free, to strike out every batter he can get his hands on. Here, enjoy BP’s Top 10 Yankees prospects.
6. Watch A-Rod hit home runs
   It’s so soothing.

Learning about Bird’s injury probably injected an awful feeling into your soul. Breathe easy, let it all out. Just follow these six steps and everything will be okay.

That, and read BP Bronx as often as you can.

Lead photo: Noah K. Murray/USA Today Sports

BP released its Top 101 Prospects of 2016 on Friday, which includes three promising youngsters in the Yankees system.

OF Aaron Judge (No. 18)

2015 rank: 59

Book comments: Judge should make his debut in the Bronx sometime in 2016, but it feels like a man of his proportions and potential needs a nickname. For opposing pitchers he might very well be “Judge Dredd,” or when he fires one back up the box, “Judge Holden.” Or maybe his 6-foot-7 frame holds “the long arms of the law.” (When they get extended the 70-grade raw power definitely plays.) All right, these aren’t as good as “Death to Flying Things” (although Judge should be a good defensive right fielder), so maybe we’ll just let his bat do the talking when he gets to East 161st Street.

The right-handed slugger comes in as the fifth-best outfielder in the rankings despite posting disappointing numbers in Triple-A. Still, a .247 TAv in 260 plate appearances isn’t the end of the world, and he did hit for a .316 TAv in  280 trips to the plate in Double-A.

Judge is still a year away from the big leagues thanks to Carlos Beltran’s residence in right field, so he’ll have plenty of time to bring his numbers back up to where they were at previous levels and cut down on his strikeouts (144 in total last season).

SS Jorge Mateo (No. 65)

2015 rank: N/A

Book comments: The Yankees have spent millions in the international market over the last few seasons, blowing past their cap in both 2013 and 2014, but their best IFA prospect might be one they paid just a quarter of a million dollars in 2012. Mateo is an 80 runner fully capable of stolen-base titles. He offers a potentially solid glove at shortstop as well. The bat is still quite raw, and may never win him a Silver Slugger, but he can challenge the old adage that “you can’t steal first.” Every ball in play is a potential single, and every ball up the alleys a potential triple.

The Yankees nearly traded Mateo away in 2015, offering him to the San Diego Padres in exchange for closer Craig Kimbrel. San Diego declined, keeping the Yankees’ potential franchise shortstop in their farm system, and opening the door for the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman.

Mateo remains a focal point of the Yankees’ rebuild, possessing speed and fielding range. While Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro currently occupy the middle infield, there’s no guarantee they will be there in 2018 when Mateo is ready for a call-up.

C Gary Sanchez (No. 92)

2015 rank: N/A

Book comments: This is Sanchez’s sixth appearance on a BP Top 101, so it falls to him to show the kids how to fix the copier and where we keep the K-Cups. He took steps forward on both sides of the ball in 2015, and the plus power and plus-plus arm that have kept him on every new iteration of this list are still very much present. www.baseballprospectus.com Top 101 Prospects – 573 Evaluations differ on whether he is a catcher long term, but the Yankees have an opening for him behind the plate in 2016, albeit as a backup, so we prospect writers should at least be able to avoid the seven-year itch. Maybe Sanchez should avoid any subway grates around the D train just to be on the safe side though.

This may surprise you, because it seems as if he’s been in the Yankees system since 1997, but Gary Sanchez is still just 23-years-old. He earned himself a call-up in September of 2015, and while he didn’t hit any walk-off home runs, he took some legendary cuts in batting practice.

In all seriousness, Sanchez’s time as a major-league catcher may be upon us. The team dealt away John Ryan Murphy to the Minnesota Twins during the offseason, opening up the door for Sanchez to earn a spot backing up Brian McCann. Austin Romine may start the season in that role, but it’s only a matter of time before Sanchez supplants him. Brian Cashman still loves his ability, and once he clubs his first big-league homer, fans will too.

Lead photo: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports

Aaron Judge, RF

Here’s the obvious one. Judge has huge power, coming from his 6-foot-7 frame, and also has surprising contact ability and athleticism. Judge figures to be an impact bat in the heart of the lineup, who also can bring solid right-field defense. Strikeouts will always be a part of Judge’s game thanks to his long arms and huge strike zone, and that’s a big reason why he didn’t reach the majors in 2015. Although Judge was impressive in Double-A last season, he struggled in his first taste of Triple-A. It was a big jump for the 23-year-old, and while a .224/.308/.373 line with just eight home runs in 61 games isn’t what we hoped for, it’s not overly worrisome. Judge is unlikely to make the team out of spring training, partly because he needs more development and partly because there isn’t a clear opening need for him in the outfield yet. Ideally, Judge should get at least half a season more in the minors to develop, but early success in the minors or an injury in the majors could cause Judge to become a factor in the Yankees’ lineup by the All Star Break. 

Gary Sanchez, C

Sanchez has gone the way of Greg Bird this fall, with Sanchez’s Arizona Fall League causing his value to skyrocket. Sanchez showed that he could translate his raw tools into the game, impressing team officials enough for them to trade 24-year-old John Ryan Murphy to the Twins. Now, Sanchez figures to be the Yankees backup catcher in 2016 and could be their starting catcher once Brian McCann has to move off the position. Like Judge, Sanchez could probably use some more minor-league development, as his defense lags behind his offense. But, the Yankees likely prefer Sanchez to Austin Romine as their second catcher. Sanchez won’t get many at-bats, but his impressive bat and arm could open some eyes in his limited chances.

Rob Refsnyder, 2B

Refsnyder spent all of 2015 on the brink of the majors, but ended up with just 47 plate appearances. Refsnyder isn’t very flashy, but brings an above-average hit tool and fringe-average tools everywhere else. He could start at second base for a less-competitive team, but the Yankees don’t seem to be high on Refnsyder. If the team doesn’t make a trade or sign a player like Ben Zobrist, Howie Kendrick, or (gasp) Daniel Murphy, Refsnyder could platoon with Dustin Ackley at second. But, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him on another major-league team come Opening Day.

Jacob Lindgren, RP

After an electrifying professional debut in 2014, Lindgren was expected to contribute in the Yankees bullpen in 2015. A bone spur in his elbow ended that hope after just seven innings of 5.14 ERA ball, but the team is hoping for a return to form for Lindgren in 2016. Should his stuff return after injury, Lindgren’s ridiculously high strikeout numbers could land him a middle-relief role in the bullpen in 2016. Lindgren has the talent to succeed early on and earn a bigger role in the bullpen as the season progresses. If he’s healthy, Lindgren could have a surprisingly big impact in 2016, especially if the Yankees end up trading Andrew Miller. A strong spring training should give Lindgren a major-league spot to start the season.

Brady Lail, SP

Remember Chase Whitley? Brady Lail has a chance to assume a similar role in 2015. Lail had a breakout 2015, with a 2.45 ERA in Double-A putting him on the prospect map. The 22-year-old ran into trouble in a limited stint in Triple-A, posting a 4.62 ERA in 37 innings. Like Aaron Judge, the Triple-A performance wasn’t encouraging, but nothing alarming. Lail could be a long man for the Yankees or a spot starter in the second half of 2016, but doesn’t figure to make a huge impact. Long term, Lail could turn into a decent back end-starter—one who resembles Mike Leake.

Mason Williams/Slade Heathcott, OF

Okay, I got a little lazy, but Heathcott and Williams are similar players. Both are extremely talented, but injury and attitude problems have led to them being disappointments as prospects. Still, both received chances in the majors and flashed some tools before getting injured (again) in 2015. It seems that the two outfielders have matured, and if injuries haven’t eroded their talent, the two players each offer intriguing upside. That said, it is most likely that they turn into fourth or fifth outfielders, and one of them could get that role out of Spring Training next season. 

Jake Cave/Ben Gamel, OF

Now we move on from underachieving but talented players to overachieving but less gifted prospects. Cave and Gamel both feature average-at-best skills across the board, which is useful but not flashy. Neither is likely to hold a starting job in the majors, especially given a surplus of outfielders in the high minors. But Cave has always performed in the minors, and Gamel looked like a different player in Triple-A last season, with a surprisingly good performance. Gamel is currently farther along than Cave and could get a major-league look first, although neither are likely to get more than a handful of at-bats in 2016 due to the team’s already crowded outfield.

(Photo: Brad Penner-USA Today Sports)

• Luis Severino, RHP: Severino and Judge are essentially 1A and 1B for me, and they can really be flipped around in whatever order one so desires. Severino is dispelling doubts about his long-term viability as a starter that stemmed from his size and arm-heavy delivery. His slider, once a source of worry because it lagged behind his fastball and excellent changeup in its development, has become a more than useful pitch. He’ll make his big league debut today against the Red Sox, and we should be in for one hell of a show. In 61.1 innings at Triple-A, Severino did not allow a single home run and struck out more than a fifth of the hitters he faced. That’ll do. If he can fully put the doubters to rest, he’ll be a frontline starter for years to come.
• Aaron Judge, RF: The mountain of a man known as Aaron Judge has also reached Triple-A Scranton. He mashed his way through the minor leagues after being taken in the 2013 draft as the lowest of the three first round picks the Yankees found themselves in possession of (Eric Jagielo and Ian Clarkin were taken ahead of him). Judge plays a good right field and boasts a great throwing arm in addition to his big bat. He doesn’t sell out for power, instead focusing on a line drive approach and letting his prodigious strength account for him running into hilariously massive home runs. He’s surprisingly spry for a man of his size, and while that will likely fade as he ages, he’s a rather complete player. Judge may see the lion’s share of the playing time in right field next year.
• Greg Bird, 1B: Bird may just be the most intelligent hitter in the system. The man who served as Kevin Gausman’s catcher in high school walks quite a lot while also hitting for great power from the left side. He’s also improved substantially with the glove at first base since being converted from the backstop after the draft. He may not hit for a high average in the big leagues, but a high-OBP power bat with a .265-ish batting average could easily be in the cards here. BP’s Jeff Moore lightly threw a Lucas Duda comp on Bird before Duda turned back into a pumpkin for a while, so there’s that. Bird is a very cerebral hitter and his love for the art will take him a long way. His disposition as a natural leader in the clubhouse is an asset and he should thrive in the limelight of New York.
• Jorge Mateo, SS: It’s possible that while you read this sentence, Mateo is stealing a base. As of this writing he has swiped 71, which leads all of MLB-affiliated baseball. That statistic is probably outdated by now, however. Oh, and he’s hitting .268/.338/.378 at age 20 in Low-A, and playing a decent shortstop. There’s a mountain of potential here, and it’ll be fun to see how much power he grows into as he physically matures, and how much of that speed he’ll keep. Mateo posses one of the very few genuine 80-grade speed tools, and when that’s packaged with a player that can hit and play a legit shortstop, it’s a fantastically dangerous profile.
• James Kaprielian, RHP: Kaprielian was the Yankees’ top pick this summer, taken 16^th overall out of UCLA. While he wasn’t the sexiest of picks, Kaprielian comes with a polished package of four pitches (fastball, slider, curve, changeup) that all grade at least average or better. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he makes it work with his good fastball command that allows him to throw the pitch where he wants and set up his secondary stuff. Kaprielian should move quickly through the system and fill a role in the middle of a big league rotation soon.
• Gary Sanchez, C: It’s been a long road for Sanchez, who’s seemingly been around since the dawn of time. Yet Sanchez is still just 22, and is now hitting well in the upper levels of the minors. He posted a 127 wRC+ in 58 games at Double-A Trenton before being bumped up to Scranton, and he’s now swatting homers left and right. The point against Sanchez has long been his defense, but he’s shown marked improvement behind the plate in both his physical defense and his game calling. Sanchez also still possesses a Howitzer cannon for a throwing arm and loves to show it off. One would have to think that he’s first in line for a callup if an injury should befall Brian McCann.
• Eric Jagielo, 3B: Jagielo was the first of the three Yankee first round picks in 2013, and the Notre Dame product hit his stride offensively before going down with a knee injury at Double-A. Some in the organization are quite down on Jagielo’s work at third base, it should be noted, as he can look almost statuesque at times. Before his injury, he was beginning to see time at first base. However, a 50 bat with plus power will play just about anywhere, if Jagielo can cut down on the number of ugly-looking strikeouts he falls victim to. Jagielo felt like trade-bait before the injury. The organization will likely send him out to the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost time and his performance there will be telling.
• Rob Refsnyder, 2B: Refsnyder is easily one of the most stymieing players in the system. A converted outfielder, Refsnyder lacks some of the basic defensive instincts necessary to succeed at second base. That may not be the final book on him when all is said and done, but it’s certainly the case right now that’s deploying a mixture of Brendan Ryan and Stephen Drew at second base a level above Refsnyder. He seems to have a propensity to rush routine plays and botch double play balls, but at the same time Refsnyder displays an advanced feel for hitting. His meteoric rise through the system last year has predictably not held up this season, but he’s still one of the best hitters on a Triple-A squad that now also features Judge and Bird. He won’t hit for that level of power, but it’s a major league bat. The glove will be the key to whether or not the Yankees view him as a big league player.
• Ian Clarkin, LHP: Nobody is quite sure what sort of arm injury is causing Clarkin to sit out the season. If he were healthy, he would likely be ranked much higher. All of his pitches are average or better, led by his nasty curveball. Clarkin figures to be a member of the front portion of a big league rotation, but that all depends on how he returns from his mysterious ailment. Such his life. He’s still quite active on Twitter, though.
• Brady Lail, RHP: Speaking of meteoric rises, Lail just reached Triple-A at the age of 21. Like Kaprielian, he doesn’t throw overly hard but instead relies on location and movement to keep hitters off balance. The product of a Utah high school known much more for football than baseball, Lail would be just the 40^th big leaguer from the state should he reach the Bronx. Lail is a remarkably coachable pitcher and now that he’s overthrowing his fastball far less, his control of all of his pitches is resulting in quite a lot of weak contact. He’ll likely spend most (if not all) of next year in Scranton refining his craft for the final jump, but the stuff that had made Lail a sleeper has put him directly on the radar.
• Rookie Davis, RHP: Recently promoted to Double-A, Davis has drawn quite a bit of attention for striking out 25.9% of opposing hitters while walking just 4.4% and reaching 96 MPH on his fastball. Though he’s still developing his changeup, Davis’ curve is more than enough for the time being to act as a reliable second offering. The development of the changeup will be what decides whether Davis continues as a starter or turns into a nightmarishly good reliever. Obviously the Yankees hope he can stick in a rotation, but the stuff could play up even more in short stints if all else fails.
• Jacob Lindgren, LHP: Lindgren surfaced briefly in majors this season before being sent down and then sidelined with bone spurs in his elbow. Drafted in the second round in 2014, Lindgren put up eye-popping numbers in the minors in his ascension to Yankee Stadium. His wipeout slider is his calling card that allows him to pitch effectively against batters regardless of handedness, and he can reach 95 on his fastball. What prevents me from being as high on Lindgren as everyone else is his spotty control. What we saw in his time in the big leagues was likely a partial result of those bone spurs, but there’s the potential here for more walks than one would like to see. When he’s right, however, Lindgren also induces a silly amount of ground balls, so there’s closer material here.
• Nick Goody, RHP: I was sorely, sorely tempted to rank Goody higher, and this is undoubtedly the highest you’ll see him ranked anywhere. It could very overzealous, but I’ve seen enough of Goody to drink the Kool-Aid. Whenever he was inserted into a game at Double-A, Goody was basically a cheat code. Over 41.2 innings, he struck out 59 and walked 14. At the time of his promotion to Scranton, he led the whole team in strikeouts, including the starters. He’s been just as good at Scranton, and the control issues he’s had in his very brief cameos in the bigs this month are likely a result of simple jitters. Goody’s makeup is through the roof, so don’t expect that to last. He does it all without throwing overly hard, instead relying on movement and a plus curveball to get his work done. I can’t heap enough praise upon this player.
• Hoy Jun Park, SS: Signed out of South Korea last year in the Yankees’ international spending bonanza, Park is playing in short-season Pulaski at age 19. There’s plenty of growth left here, but Park is already a plus defender at shortstop and holding his own at the plate. He walks at an encouraging clip and some more power should come as he fills out more. An assignment to Charleston to start next year would not be surprising. Park may end up as a glove-first player when all is said and done, but his bat will be more than enough. He’s certainly one to watch next year.
• Tyler Wade, 2B/SS: Take everything about Park and flip it on its head. Wade can hit and hit and hit some more. His bat just got him promoted to Trenton last night. Wade’s problem is fielding. He’s got the range to stick at shortstop, but a high number of errors highlight his need to improve the steadiness of his hands if he wants to stick at the position. The good news is that he’s just 20 years old, so he’s been young for his level and the promotion to Double-A only accentuates that more. Wade has plenty of time to steady himself, and could turn into quite a fun player. He and Park can be easily flipped in these rankings without any loss of sleep.

Some other players to keep an eye on are outfielders Dustin Fowler and Mark Payton, injured catcher Luis Torrens (who would have likely made the list if he was healthy), infielders Thairo Estrada, Abi Avelino, Kyle Holder, and Miguel Andujar, and a gaggle of pitchers including Bryan Mitchell, Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Holder, Cale Coshow, Domingo Acevedo, Drew Finley and Jeff Degano. Things are getting exciting down on the farm.

(Photo: Kim Klement-USA Today Sports)

As you probably know, Aaron Judge is about ten types of awesome. Rated as BP’s 49th best prospect entering the season, Judge brings a mix of power, plate discipline and plus defense in right field (largely due to his cannon arm) stuffed into a 6-foot 7-inch frame. Andrew Mearns wrote recently about his ludicrous power. Give that a read, it’s good stuff. It’ll make you want Judge in the Bronx that much more.

Here’s the thing about Judge, though. For the last month or so, nearly every time I’ve seen Judge (I’ve been to almost every Trenton Thunder home game since May) he’s whiffed badly on a breaking ball or change and struck out. Strikeouts will always be part of Judge’s game because of how naturally big his strike zone is and that’s fine. He makes up for it with some good plate discipline, but breaking balls and changeups seem to be his kryptonite. Unfortunately, most of the pitch identification data from the minors is either not available publicly or not present at every ballpark, especially in the lower levels. Because of that, I can’t provide exact figures on Judge’s proclivity to swing and miss on these pitches. What I can do, however, is look at big leaguers who do this quite often. Using the Pitch F/X search function at Baseball Savant, I pulled a set of data entailing every single swinging strikeout on a curveball, slider or changeup in 2015. My flawed eye test when watching Judge says that the pitches he’s missing on are over the outer part of the plate, but again I have no way of confirming this so we’ll look at the broad picture. The full results can be found here.

Perched atop the list with 41 such whiffs is one Giancarlo Stanton. Judge has been somewhat unfairly compared to Stanton due to their massive sizes and big power. Judge will probably never put up the dazzling home run totals that Stanton does because (1) it’s Giancarlo Stanton we’re talking about and (2) Judge’s approach is focused on line drives and accidentally walloping the everloving hell out of a home run every now and then. However, they seem to be similar in this regard. Here’s where the pitches Stanton has seen have gone.

By and large, they’ve been outside and/or down and away. That’s where I’ve seen the pitches to Judge go as well, so we may have something here. For kicks, here’s Tim Lincecum getting Stanton on such a pitch.

A lot of strikeouts won’t destroy a big league career, if Kris Bryant and Joey Gallo are anything to go by. I don’t expect Judge’s Stanton-esque problem with the outside secondary pitch to be an achilles heel that derails everything, but it could be the difference between him being a good hitter and a great one. Judge walked at a 17.5 percent clip in 285 plate appearances in Tampa last year. This year at Trenton, he only walked in 8.6 percent of his 280 plate appearances. That was offset by a staggering jump in ISO from .159 to .232, of course, but that steep a drop in walk rate is cause for concern. The issue with these pitches can make Judge a maddeningly frustrating hitter to watch at times. Then he’ll go and do something like this.

Suddenly you find yourself back on the Aaron Judge Hype Train with a first class ticket. Such is life, such are prospects. They’ll always do something very weird unless you’re dealing with a Carlos Correa-type, and that Aaron Judge is not. He’s a very nice prospect and will very likely be a pretty dang good baseball player. However I also wouldn’t be shocked if these kind of strikeouts limit him in a noticeable way.

(Photo: Kim Klemment-USA Today Sports)

There are few parts of a baseball game more enjoyable than watching a hitter square a pitch up and absolutely destroy the ball. That’s what makes Giancarlo Stanton one of the game’s most exciting players–he’s just a man who can hit baseballs ridiculous distances. When the Yankees’ top position player prospect Aaron Judge was drafted out of Fresno St. two years ago, the Stanton comps were immediately thrown around. Obviously that’s not quite fair since at Judge’s age, Stanton was already in the majors crushing bombs, but like Stanton, Judge is a menacing presence in the batter’s box, stepping in at 6’7″ and 275 lbs. He towers over his teammates and he’s given minor league pitchers headaches ever since he played his first game in 2014.

As Wittman noted in the quote above, Judge’s power is remarkable. Not all analysts agree of course, but when the lowest grade used is about 60, it’s a good sign that the prospect is a remarkable talent. Last year, Judge hit .308/.419/.486 between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa, slugging 17 homers in 131 games. The challenge of the more advanced Double-A pitching slowed his pace somewhat, but nonetheless, he is batting .283/.350/.500 with 10 homers already in 57 games, a pace that would put him ahead of last year despite playing half his games in the pitcher’s paradise of Arm & Hammer Park in Trenton.

Sometimes, it can be difficult tracking footage of prospects, regardless of their skill sets or futures, so it seemed like a fun idea to give readers an idea of Judge’s power. Excuse the occasional graininess due to minor league cameras. There’s no doubt about it–the dude can mash with the minors’ best prospects.

Opening Day

Video

In one of his few at-bats above A-ball, Judge made his presence felt. He went down to get this pitch and demolished it to the distant reaches of Erie’s Jerry Uht Park, over 20 feet above the home run fence, which is already about 365 feet away on its own. It’s hard to see the baseball in this GIF, but here’s where it hit:

Yikes. Now imagine how far that would have gone if Erie Insurance Arena wasn’t sitting behind the fence.

Walk-off winner

Video

This was Trenton’s first home game of the season and the first chance most local Yankees fans had to see the 23-year-old slugger. He did not disappoint. The Thunder rallied to tie their game against the Portland Sea Dogs in the ninth, and Judge stepped up with a chance to win it all in extras. After one long blast over 400 feet into the Trenton night onto Route 29, it was over. “I got that one,” said Judge to Rolling Thunder. “It was one of those where you hit and it doesn’t even feel like it touched the bat, so I knew.” It’s awesome that he just knows these things instantly.

Up & in & out

Video

This Judge homer was simply impressive plate coverage. The pitch appeared to come into the strike zone up and in, and yet he still had the power drove it out to left-center a little under 400 feet and off the videoboard next to the “Maine Monster” in Portland. This was an especially fun game, as fellow hard-hitting prospect Greg Bird followed with a long blast to center field of his own. Yankees prospect fans will undoubtedly be dreaming of that back-to-back combo in the lineup.

To the Delaware

Video

Any decent power hitter can pull long homers, but it takes an awesome one to know what to do with a pitch toward the further half of the strike zone. Judge took this outside fastball to the opposite field, all the way into the Delaware River outside Arm & Hammer Park, well beyond the 330 foot marker down the right field line. Gracious.

Off-speed blast

Video

Yes, this pitch was definitely a hanger. It’s still positive that Judge could sense the off-speed offering coming and set himself up to crush it. The big bashers in the lineup have to take advantage of mistakes, and Judge certainly did with this dinger:

Aaron Judge (@TheJudge44) launched his 9th HR of the season last night in Harrisburg… Here’s where it landed: pic.twitter.com/by4QxtXK3k

— Trenton Thunder (@TrentonThunder) June 13, 2015

The Harrisburg Judge show continued a couple days later when Judge reached double digits in homers on the season with a monstrous clout almost to the same exact spot in the GIF above… except this time, it went further and out of the park.

Judge is currently second in the Eastern League in homers with 10, and the only person ahead of him isn’t really a prospect. He still has some work to do improving his plate discipline and approach to more complicated pitches before he’s ready for another promotion to Triple-A Scranton, let alone the big leagues. However, his prodigious power has been quite apparent early on. It’s been quite awhile since the Yankees developed a true power hitter, but Judge might just be that special someone.

(Photo: Kim Klement-USA Today Sports)

It’s easy to forget just how much prospect analysts loved Williams when he was in the low minors. The Yankees signed him as a fourth round pick in the 2010 Draft and gave him the largest bonus of all their draftees that year to lure him away from playing at South Carolina–$1.45 million. Williams hit the ground running in 2011 with short-season Staten Island, where he exploded onto the scene with a .349/.395/.468 triple slash, 28 steals, and a .317 TAv in 68 games. It was enough for then-BP prospect head Kevin Goldstein to dub him “the most exciting player in the system,” which was pretty lofty praise considering a pre-Tommy John Manny Banuelos was still around.

Williams followed his breakout 2011 with a solid 2012 split between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa, where he combined to hit .298/.346/.474, notching 107 hits in 91 games, mostly with the RiverDogs. For a 20-year-old playing his first year of full-season ball, that was quite impressive, and Jason Parks put him second overall in the Yankees’ system, praising his awesome defense and contact abilities. Going into the 2013 season, Baseball Prospectus ranked him 51st in the game, ahead of some notable names, like George Springer, Nolan Arenado, and Michael Wacha.

So after a little more time in Tampa, it would be a smooth road to the majors, right? Well… he did something stupid from the get-go with an April DUI, and he badly slumped on the field with Tampa, batting just .261/.327/.350 with a .245 TAv. His swing mechanics got all out of whack and questions about his makeup emerged. Scouts were concerned about how angry he got whenever he made an out, and how unlike other infamously intense players like Paul O’Neill, he let failures affect his performance on the field for the rest of the game.

As if 2013 wasn’t enough of a nightmare, 2014 was even worse. He completely fell off the prospect radar with a second straight dismal season, this time a step up at the Double-A level. He slipped to a .223/.290/.304 batting line with a jarringly poor .216 TAv. When BP’s Tucker Blair saw him in August, he unleashed one of his harshest reports of the year:

Williams showed nothing in my viewing. His bat was extremely inconsistent and he failed to produce the same swing throughout an entire series. The defense is not going to carry him through the minors. The most concerning part about Williams’ game was the effort. I did not get the impression that he cared, and it often felt like he had already lost or failed before he stepped up to bat.

Rough. Williams was so poor in 2014 that there was some debate whether or not he was even the worth the 40-man spot required to protect him in the Rule 5 Draft. Nonetheless, the Yankees chose to keep him, and Williams entered 2015 with possibly the lowest expectations of his baseball life. Then out nowhere, he began the season red-hot, batting .323/.403/.355 with eight stolen bases in April alone. The cliches are what they are, but for whatever they’re worth, he did do an interview that month with Trenton Thunder beat writer Dan Pfeiffer, during which he noted that he had a “rigorous” off-season of workouts which he believed help him prepare for the season.

Williams eventually reached .317/.407/.375 in Trenton before earning a promotion to Triple-A Scranton that coincided with Heathcott’s jump to the majors. The advance did not slow his pace much; in fact, he has hit for a little more power with the RailRiders. During his first two weeks of Triple-A ball, Williams has hit .288/.344/.407 with already almost as many extra-base hits as he had in 34 games with Trenton. If he keeps this up, it’s going to be very difficult for the Yankees to demote him once Ramon Flores and/or Heathcott must return to Scranton.

Mason’s bat might still not be quite enough to lift him up to the role of big league regular that so many had forecasted of him just a couple years ago. However, he has done considerable work already this year to force himself back onto the prospect radar. The Yankees may extract value out of him yet, and that possibility alone is exciting given where he was just a few months ago. Here’s hoping he keeps up the good work.

(Photo: Kim Klement-USA Today Sports)