Statistically, there’s a consensus on Andujar’s glovework. Whether it’s UZR, DRS, or FRAA, all three defensive metrics loathe the rookie’s performance. Andujar’s UZR and UZR/150 are by far the worst for a third baseman in the league. If he keeps it up (down?), Andujar’s UZR/150 would be the third-worst since the stat has been tracked for third basemen. Only Ryan Braun and Mark Reynolds have put together uglier performances at the position. At -10 DRS and -4.9 FRAA, Miggy is also at or near the bottom of the rung in 2018.

Don’t like advanced defensive metrics? I get it, especially given the sample size and their complex nature. Turning to Inside Edge field data, which is a bit simpler to understand, is where we get a confirmation that the more complicated metrics are on to something. There are six categories of plays that Inside Edge evaluates, each based on percentage likelihood of making a play on the batted ball:

• Impossible (0%)
• Remote (1-10%)
• Unlikely (10-40%)
• About Even (40-60%)
• Likely (60-90%)
• Almost Certain / Certain (90-100%)

When it comes to “Almost Certain / Certain”, perhaps better coined as a routine play, Andujar actually stacks up pretty well. He’s converted 97 percent of those opportunities, which is seventh-best of 21 qualified third basemen. Interestingly enough, there were internal concerns about Andujar’s consistency with routine plays prior to the season:

“[Yankees’ Infield Coordinator Carlos] Mendoza added that making “routine plays” consistently has been Andujar’s issue.”

Nonetheless, it seems like he’s been just fine in that aspect. Rather, it’s that he hasn’t offered much on anything other than easy plays. Stepping down to the next bin, we find that Andujar has made “Likely” plays only 58 percent of the time. The only two third baseman with worse marks in this category are Christian Villanueva and Colin Moran. It gets worse from there. This year, Andujar hasn’t made a single play considered “About Even”, “Unlikely”, “Remote”, or “Impossible”. It’s hard to blame anyone for failing to make a play on most of these opportunities, but we should hope for at least a few conversions on plays in the 40 to 60 percent likelihood. Granted, the sample sizes are small in these more difficult classifications, but it is concerning that Andujar has struggled to go beyond the basics.

On a positive note, Andujar doesn’t make many errors on balls that he is able to field. His four errors (three fielding, one throwing) are another indication that he doesn’t have much difficulty converting the routine plays. That said, the entire baseball world knows that errors aren’t a good way to evaluate defense because they can’t depict any given player’s range. Based on the aforementioned metrics, it sure seems like Andujar’s range is lackluster.

On the scouting side, it seems that Andujar has the potential to be an asset defensively, metrics be damned. From BP’s Top 10 Yankees prospects, the prospect team noted some positives:

“Andujar has all of the physical attributes necessary to play third, including a plus arm and solid range.”

Raw tools to play the position? Check. However:

“The plus arm strength plays down because it isn’t paired with stellar accuracy. His hands aren’t great, and he doesn’t always make the best of choices on how to play the ball at third, which has led the Yankees to talk about exposing him to other positions, most likely first base.”

I think the key point to glean here is that Andujar doesn’t always make the best decision on how to play balls hit his way. That’s likely hurting his range, and potentially is an explanation for why the Inside Edge evaluation isn’t good.

Another thing to mention is that in theory, this Yankees team has the ability to hide Andujar to some extent. For one, the always excellent Didi Gregorius can make up for some of the trouble Andujar has. Positioning and shifting can alleviate Andujar’s shortage of range. Finally, the Yankees’ pitching staff has the second highest strikeout percentage in baseball, which means fewer balls in play to worry about.

For as exciting of a hitter as Andujar has been, figuring out how to at least become adequate at the hot corner would make a huge difference in his upside. If he continues to defend at this level, or even slightly better, he might never be more than a two-win player. That’s not a bad thing! But, if he figures out how to maximize his athleticism, the Yankees could have another all-star caliber player. At just 23 years of age, there’s no reason to lose hope on Andujar’s fielding just yet. Improvements need to come at some point in the future, but it’s not a problem in need of resolution immediately as long as he keeps raking.

Photo credit: Noah K. Murray / USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees are on a certifiable hot streak. 15 of the last 16 games have ended with John Sterling belting out, “THEEEEEEE YANKEES WIN!” They’ve have gotten fantastic pitching from young stars (Luis Severino), old vets (CC Sabathia), and rookies (Domingo German, wow!). There’s been clutch hitting from nearly everyone in the lineup, with a new hero leading the team to victory each day.

There have been a few blowouts, such as the 14-1 obliteration of Minnesota on April 23, and the 11-1 bludgeoning in Anaheim on April 28. But the hallmark of the Yankees’ unbelievable run has been late-inning drama. Incredibly, 6 of the 15 wins featured the go-ahead run in the ninth inning or later. It’s almost too many fairy tale endings to keep track of. Here is a recap of the 5 biggest hits of the hot streak by WPA.

5) May 6: Neil Walker RBI Double, 36% WPA

The aforementioned walk-off bomb from #GleyberGood wasn’t the biggest hit of the game. In fact, it wasn’t even the biggest hit of the inning! Trailing 4-3 entering the bottom of the ninth, Aaron Hicks starting things off with a double. Neil Walker followed with another line drive double to right field, tying the score. Walker’s hit was worth 36% WPA, increasing the Yankee odds of winning from 46% to 82%. After a groundout by Miguel Andujar and an intentional walk to Giancarlo Stanton, Torres increased the win expectancy from 71% to 100% with his moonshot to right-center.

4) May 4: Miguel Andujar Game-Winning Single, 36% WPA

The opening match of the Cleveland series was an emotional whirlwind. The Yankee bullpen blew a 5-0 lead in the top of the 8th inning, thanks to a three-run smash by Bradley Zimmer. In the bottom of the frame, the Yankees regained the lead with a two-out, bases loaded walk by Aaron Judge. However, Aroldis Chapman failed to shut the door, yielding a single to Yan Gomes, a HBP, and two wild pitches. With the score tied at 6 in the bottom of the ninth, Stanton led off with a double. Gary Sanchez flew out to right field and Hicks grounded out to the right side, advancing Stanton to third. Walker walked (which is a fun phrase to type), then took second on defensive indifference. That brought up Andujar, who slapped one into right field on a 1-2 count, scoring Stanton to win the game. The base hit was worth 36% WPA, but perhaps it should be penalized because Didi Gregorius was kicked in the head during the celebration. With all these dramatic wins, you’d think the team would know how to celebrate more safely.

3) April 27: Didi Gregorius 10th Inning Home Run, 38% WPA

In the first game of the road trip, the Yankees trailed the Angels 3-2 in the 9th inning. Brett Gardner hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game with the bases loaded and one out. David Robertson pitched a flawless bottom of the ninth, sending the game to extra innings. With one out in the 10th, Gregorius did this:

The blast increased the Yankees’ chances of winning from 44% to 82%. Chapman nailed down the victory in the bottom of the inning, 4-3 Yankees.

2) May 3: Gleyber Torres Two-Run Single, 39% WPA

Gleyber does make the cut after all! Astros closer Ken Giles was out of commission after getting blown up the day before (and perhaps nursing a bruised jaw), so Will Harris took on the Yankees in the top of the ninth with a 5-3 lead. He surrendered a walk to Walker (there it is again!) and singles to Andujar and Hicks to load the bases with no outs. Brad Peacock came in to face Torres, who lined a single to left to tie the game. Two batters later, Hicks scored on a groundout to give the Yankees the lead, which Chapman preserved for a victory. The Torres single was the big play, of course, improving the Yankees’ win expectancy from 42% to 81%.

1) April 26: UNLEASH THE KRAKEN, 66% WPA

When Sanchez stepped to bat in the bottom of the ninth, the Yankees had just a 34% chance of beating the Twins. They were trailing 3-1 with two men on base and no outs. His blast traveled 381 feet and miraculously stayed inside the foul pole. Everybody goes home, 4-3 Yankees. A WPA event of 30% or higher is rare. A 66% WPA event can almost exclusively be a come-from-behind, walk-off winner like Gary’s. Much like the Yankees’ entire hot streak, it should be savored and remembered.

Photo Credit: Adam Hunger / USA TODAY Sports

EJ and Paul talk about the past, present, and future of Miguel Andujar.

Miguel Andujar is a third baseman but shared a similar scouting summary with Sanchez and Montero: good bat, questionable glove. The Tigers questioned his glove repeatedly in the 7th inning of yesterday’s 8-6 Yankee victory. Victor Martinez, JaCoby Jones, and Jose Iglesias all tested the young third baseman. Andujar’s defense was a major factor in the outcome of the inning, so it’s a good a case study to judge the early returns on his glove.

Victor Martinez Double

After a leadoff single by Nick Castellanos, Martinez smoked a hard ground ball inside the bag. After an overthrow by Brett Gardner, Martinez found himself at third base. Score it an RBI double, with the batter advancing to third on the E7. Here are some of the Statcast metrics for the batted ball:

This was not an easy play by any means. Anything with triple-digit exit velo is tough to glove. Luck of defensive positioning is a big factor as well. Still, with an xBA of .375, this batted ball is usually an out. The Arenado/Beltre/Donaldson level third baseman probably snags it, but Andujar does not.

JaCoby Jones Lineout

Following a sacrifice fly, Jones sends a screaming line drive toward third. With fortunate positioning and quick reflexes, Andujar stabbed it cleanly for the second out of the inning.

Andujar should be proud of this one. This ball was crushed 4.3 MPH harder than the Martinez double, and the 7° launch angle meant neither ground nor air would slow it down. 104.8 MPH equates to 154 ft/second, and our protagonist made the play 128 ft from the plate. Therefore, he caught the ball only 0.83 seconds after contact. A liner such as this is a base hit nearly 70% of the time, but Andujar turned it into an out. Nicely done.

Jose Iglesias Double

The next batter was Iglesias, who hit a ground ball to Andujar’s right. The third baseman dove toward the foul line and deflected the ball with his glove, but could not prevent it from rolling into the outfield.

If the Jones line drive was Andujar’s best, the Iglesias double is his worst. This was not a hard hit ball. It was basically a regular chopper toward third base. While it would have been a pretty good-looking play had he completed it successfully, only 1 time out of 9 is this kind of grounder a base hit. Anecdotally, as I watched the play on TV I thought it could have easily been scored an E5 instead of a double. Iglesias failed to score in the inning, but Andujar probably should’ve made him the third out.

Conclusion

In conclusion, there is no conclusion. As stated on FanGraphs glossary page for UZR:

“Beware of sample sizes! If a player only spent 50 innings at a position last season, it’d be a good idea not to draw too many conclusions from their UZR score over that time. Like with any defensive statistic, you should always use three years of UZR data before trying to draw any conclusions on the true talent level of a fielder.”

If 50 innings is too small a sample to make sense of defensive value, one inning certainly won’t cut it. Furthermore, there are two aspects of defense that are equally important for third basemen: fielding and throwing. Andujar had three chances to field the ball in this inning, but no chances to use his arm.

What we did learn is that Andujar might need to work on his consistency with ground balls to his right. Perhaps he needs to position himself better before the play or maybe he needs to get a quicker jump on the ball. Then again, maybe he’s fine. We can’t really know for sure until we see him play a lot more.

Andujar hit a double and a triple in four trips to the plate. If he keeps racking up extra-base hits of his own, the Yankees will give us lots more chances to see what he can do in the field.

Bird’s right foot-the same foot that cost him most of last year- is mysteriously inflamed. In retrospect, the Yankees should’ve prepared for this as an inevitability. While it must be incredibly frustrating for Bird himself, the team just can’t rely on him to play 150+ games in the field. They haven’t announced yet whether or not he’ll start the season on the DL. Even if he returns to action in time for Opening Day, there’s at least a reasonable chance he’ll miss time at some point during the season. Should that happen, here’s where the Yankees will turn for a first baseman, in order of likelihood.

Neil Walker

Other than Bird, there will probably be only four players on the 25 man roster with any first base experience whatsoever. Brandon Drury played one inning at the position in 2013, and Gary Sanchez spent three innings there last year. Both have starting jobs elsewhere and almost certainly won’t be moved to first. Austin Romine barely hits enough to keep his job as a backup catcher, so even though he’s played 20 games at first base, he’s unpalatable as a long-term option. That leaves the most recent Yankee acquisition: Neil Walker

Walker is a 9-year MLB veteran who played second base almost exclusively from 2009-2016. His calling card is offense, and he brings a career 114 wRC+ into this season. He’s never been particularly adept at his natural position, posting -16 DRS and -23.5 UZR for his career. At age 32, he’s more likely to regress than progress, and frankly, he can’t afford to lose any range and stay up the middle. Last year, while playing for the Mets and Brewers, he was asked to spend some time at first base as well as third. Transitioning to the corners may be the key to extending his career into his mid-30s.

There’s another reason why Walker is the best backup first base candidate: Tyler Wade. Improbably, Wade beat out top prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar for a spot on the major league roster when the Yankees break camp. The fleet middle infielder impressed the coaching staff with his superior speed and defense. He’s no slouch at the plate either, batting .310/.382/.460 in AAA last year and has a .404 OBP in Spring Training. Manager Aaron Boone already announced plans to use Wade concurrently with Walker at second base, so if the latter moves over to first, there’s an in-house replacement at second.

Tyler Austin

Remember when Tyler Austin was a top prospect? Along with Mason Williams and Slade Heathcott, the Yankee outfield of the future never really materialized. Of the three former can’t-miss stars, Austin has the brightest future remaining. After moving to first base, he finally conquered the high minors in 2016, only to get hurt for most of last season (along with everyone else on the first base depth chart).

At age 26, Austin has nothing left to prove in the minors. He hasn’t hit much in the big leagues so far- just .236/.294/.447 through 136 PA, but the power is real. He’s crushed 4 HR and 2 2B this spring, so his bat looks pretty hot at the moment. If the Yankees aren’t comfortable with Walker at first base, or if Wade fails to hit, Austin will get the first call from the minors (assuming he doesn’t make the team out of Spring Training).

Miguel Andujar

What if the third baseman of the future isn’t a third baseman? Miguel Andujar posted a .850 OPS in AA and AAA last year and shot up the prospect charts this offseason. He followed that up with 7 XBH this spring. No one questions his ability to hit, nor the major league readiness of his bat. The Yankees even felt comfortable enough with him that they traded away Chase Headley before they had other third base alternatives (they’ve since added Drury and Walker, of course).

Most of the time, when a team sends a player down to “work on his defense,” it’s a euphemism for “we’re playing games with his service time.” (See Acuna, Ronald.) However, in the case of Andujar, they might be telling the truth. According to Jarrett Seidler in the Yankees BP Prospect Rankings, “The plus arm strength plays down because it isn’t paired with stellar accuracy. His hands aren’t great, and he doesn’t always make the best of choices on how to play the ball at third, which has led the Yankees to talk about exposing him to other positions, most likely first base.”

It’s too soon to give up on Andujar at the hot corner, so the Yankees aren’t likely to move him to first just yet. However, if Bird misses significant time again and can no longer be trusted with a starting job, Andujar’s future might be at the cold corner instead.

Other Options

The Yankees have two more imperfect options to fill a first base void. There’s Billy McKinney, who is on the 40 man roster but not really a first baseman. There’s also recent Rule V Draft returnee Mike Ford, who is not on the 40 man roster but is a real first baseman. Both showed the ability hit for some power and drew a few walks in the minors as well as Spring Training (though Ford was at the Mariners’ camp). Neither are exciting options at the moment, but if they get hot in the minor leagues, you never know what can happen.

In the event of a significant injury to Bird, perhaps the most likely outcome of all is that the Yankees go outside the organization. GM Brian Cashman still has some room under the $197 million luxury tax threshold as well as an overstocked farm system. Rather than suffer a war of attrition at first base for the second year in a row (third if you count Mark Teixeira’s final season), look for a major acquisition if things get desperate.

Photo credit: Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports

As soon as they start playing ballgames, someone has to lead the league in each category. Andujar’s four home runs place him on top of the leaderboard. He also smacked a few doubles and a pair of singles, bringing his slash line to .421/.421/1.158. Yes, you read that slugging percentage correctly. It’s still Spring Training though, and nothing means anything, but let’s see if this means something.

Home Run #1

On February 26, Andujar played the second shift against the Phillies. In his second plate appearance of the game, he took someone named Ranger Suarez deep in the bottom of the ninth, securing a walk-off 4-3 victory. More importantly, he prevented either extra innings or a tie, both of which sound just awful for February baseball.

Any prospect evaluator worth their salt will tell you never to scout the stat line, but Ranger Suarez is such a token Spring Training-filler name that we have little choice. Born just a few months after Andujar, Suarez signed with the Phillies out of Venezuela at age 16 (obviously he should’ve signed with Texas instead). He posted a 2.27 ERA with 9.4 K/9 between the South Atlantic and Florida State Leagues in 2017, becoming detectable on the most sensitive of prospect radars. MLB.com ranks him as the #15 prospect in the Phillies system, calling him a “soft-tossing lefty” with “an above average feel for pitching.”

Should we be impressed that Andujar cracked one off a low-velocity lefty in the ninth inning off a Spring Training game? Probably not. There’s a reason Suarez was on the mound so late in the game yet so early in the spring. He probably begins the year in A+ or AA.

Home Run #2

The day after his walk-off heroics, Andujar got the start at third base against the Blue Jays. He went deep again, this time off Justin Shafer in the sixth inning. The solo shot tied the score at 3-3, and the Yankees went on to win 9-8. A bunch of guys with very high uniform numbers did a lot hitting that day.

Shafer is somehow even less of a prospect than Ranger Suarez. After flaming out as a Florida State League starter in 2016, Shafer pitched exclusively in relief last season at age 24. He spent most of it in AA, and while he only allowed 6.9 H/9 his peripherals were middling. He is not listed among MLB.com’s top 30 Blue Jays prospects.

Again, this is just not terribly exciting. While it’s nice to hit homers on consecutive days, the quality of competition leaves a lot to be desired.

Home Run #3

On March 1, Andujar started at DH as the Yankees took on the Phillies again. In the third inning, he connected off starting pitcher Nick Pivetta to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead.

Hey, a real major leaguer! For some strange reason, Philadelphia gave Pivetta 26 starts last year. The results were pretty awful: 5.41 DRA over 133 IP with 25 HR allowed. His 24% K rate wasn’t bad though, and Roster Resource lists him as the Phillies #4 starter heading into the season. Still, taking him deep seems less like a feat of strength and more like a prerequisite for any major league hitter. But Andujar wasn’t done! In his next at-bat…

Home Run #4

…Andujar smoked one off Pedro Beato in the fourth inning to increase the Yankee lead to 2-0. Did you realize Beato was still around? Me neither. He bounced around the majors as a reliever from 2011-14. Apparently, he continued to pitch in the minors during the last three seasons, returning to the bigs for one game this past July. He’s in camp with the Phillies this year as a non-roster invite.

This is the beauty of Spring Training. Someone like Miguel Andujar can blast 4 HR off pitchers who are basically major leaguers in name only, and we’ll anoint him as the next breakout slugger. Of course, these early homers don’t mean anything. But because he’s a highly touted, major league-ready prospect, each baseball he clobbers only compounds the excitement about his future.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Fraught with minor league talent and newfound salary cap space, General Manager Brian Cashman can be creative in identifying Headley’s successor. While the Bombers have reportedly remained engaged in trade talks with the Baltimore Orioles regarding superstar, Manny Machado, the following are some potential options to fill the void left at third base if a trade for Machado does not materialize.

Trade Acquisitions

Maikel Franco of the Philadelphia Phillies appeared on the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects list for consecutive seasons before his brief debut in 2014. Franco made an immediate impact when given his first significant opportunity in 2015, slugging 15 home runs in just 80 games, to go along with a .280 batting average. However, as the Phillies’ everyday third baseman in 2016 and 2017, Franco regressed at the plate. The 25-year-old’s OPS dropped by 150 points from 2015 to 2017 as his line drive rate fell drastically.

While Franco’s lack of progress at the plate has been disappointing, there are several factors that indicate a bounce-back season may be imminent. Consider first that Franco maintained a terrible .230 BABIP in 2017, this is a number that is sure to increase for a player that hits the ball as hard as he does (176 balls in play with exit velocity greater than 95 MPH). Franco also went on a tear at the plate to finish the 2017 season, driving in 14 runs on six homers during the last month. Both signs allude to the potential for 2018 to be the season that Franco finally realizes his star potential.

While reports have noted that the Phillies are reluctant to trade Franco with his value at its lowest point (via Jerry Crasnick, ESPN), the Yankees would be a team with the minor league talent to persuade the Phillies to move the right-handed slugger. Franco is not eligible to become a free agent until 2022 and made just $560,000 last season, thus the Yankees have the opportunity to buy-low on this controllable, former top prospect with huge power.

Josh Harrison the primary second baseman of the Pittsburgh Pirates, is rumored to be amongst the Yankees’ trade targets this offseason. The two-time All-Star had the best season of his career in 2014 when he finished ninth in MVP voting and amassed a 5.1 WARP, good for 12^th in the league. Harrison consistently provides a spark on offense, defense, and on the basepaths for his team.

Much of Harrison’s value lies in his versatility; he has played over 250 games at both second and third base as well as more than 100 games in the outfield in his career. Thus, Harrison would remain a valuable player even if the Yankees were to call up prospects during the season, such as Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, to take over second or third base. Adding Harrison will allow the Yankees to promote the players that management feels are ready for the big leagues as opposed to simply promoting players to fill holes.

At thirty years old, Harrison has one more year left on his contract at $10.25 million, with club options for 2019 and 2020. The Pirates have expressed a willingness to entertain the idea of trading some of their stars, and a trade for Harrison would provide the Yankees with additional flexibility in subsequent roster moves.

Free Agents

Todd Frazier was acquired from the White Sox in July of 2017 to provide corner infield depth after first baseman Greg Bird underwent midseason foot surgery. Frazier was struggling to replicate his 2016 production with the White Sox, batting just .207 before being dealt to the Bombers. As a Yankee, the Toms River New Jersey native improved his OBP by nearly 40 points with modest increases in his batting average and walk rate. Likely motivated by the short porch in right field, Frazier, also improved his ability to drive the away pitch, something that he had struggled with early in the year.

The main deterrent of a reunion with Frazier, who will be 32 years old when the season begins, is his desire to sign a multi-year deal. The Toddfather will likely sign a deal similar to the three-year deal worth $37.5 million that another 32-year-old infielder, Daniel Murphy, received in 2016. Barring another payroll clearing move, it will be difficult to sign Frazier at this price and remain under the luxury tax threshold. Thus, despite his positive clubhouse presence and powerful bat, a reunion between Frazier and the Yankees seems unlikely.

Brandon Phillips is known for Gold Glove defense at second base. However, after the Braves recalled top prospect Ozzie Albies, Phillips was asked to move to the hot corner for the first time in his career. Phillips excelled when given the opportunity, converting all 45 of his chances into outs. Granted, the sample size of just 25 games was minimal, but Phillips nonetheless proved that he can handle the move across the diamond.

Offensively, Phillips is one of just three active players with over 200 career home runs and stolen bases and still possesses moderate power and speed at the age of 36 years old. In addition, Phillips has consistently maintained an extremely low strikeout rate over his career; he struck out on just 12 percent of his plate appearances in 2017. With sluggers in the middle of the Yankees projected lineup, Phillips, and his ability to put the ball in play would fit well at the end of the order.

Phillips would certainly be a more affordable option than Frazier. Thus, although he is no longer a prominent run producer, Phillips will help the Yankees accomplish their goal of staying under the luxury tax threshold in hopes of being active with next year’s acclaimed free agent class.

Internal Replacements

Miguel Andujar would be one of the most likely and most affordable options to take over at the hot corner in 2018 and beyond. Andujar excelled at the plate in Double-A and Triple-A before he received a call to the majors in late June of 2017. His debut was a must-watch, highlighted by a two-run double that was crushed off the centerfield wall in Chicago. The trepidation in giving Andujar an everyday opportunity has never been about his offense, however. In his minor league career, Andujar owns a terrible .915 fielding percentage, due in part to his still developing footwork and strong, but inaccurate, arm. Thus, if Cashman and the Yankees do in fact give the opening day job to Andujar, it will be because they believe his defense has improved during the offseason.

Gleyber Torres is the seventh-ranked prospect in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus’ 2017 rankings. In his first year in the system, Torres became the youngest player to ever win Arizona Fall League MVP at just 19 years old. Scouts believe that Gleyber possesses all five tools and has benefited from his quick hands on defense and at the plate. One of the most exciting developments for Torres in 2017, before Tommy John surgery ended his season, was the power that he showed across two levels, slugging seven home runs and 23 total extra-base hits in just 55 games. On defense, Torres is most experienced at shortstop, but the Venezuelan infielder is a great athlete and can play multiple positions such as second and third base.

It is only a matter of time before Yankee fans see Torres in the Bronx; some in the organization were reportedly inclined to make the super prospect the opening day shortstop last season with Didi Gregorius injured. One factor, however, that could delay Torres’ ascent to the majors would be the front office’s desire to delay his free agency. If Torres were to spend the first few weeks of the season in Triple-A, the Bombers would push back his free agency by one year. Delaying such a special prospect’s free agency would likely be a wise move by the Yankees, however, Torres may be able to convince them to do otherwise during spring training with his potent bat and versatile defense.

General manager Brian Cashman recently suggested that he is prepared to use internal options to fill the remaining holes in the Yankee infield. One can assume, however, that Cashman will continue to explore the trade and free agent market to provide some insurance for his inexperienced players. The top of the Yankees projected batting order resembles that of an All-Star team, giving them the unique opportunity to install at third base a combination of exciting prospects and reliable veterans in 2018.

(Photo credit: Kim Klement / USA Today)

On December 16, the Pirates were pushing for top prospect Gleyber Torres. A week later, four more Yankee prospects were tossed around in some combination: Estevan Florial, Justus Sheffield, Clint Frazier, and Chance Adams. Lately, the name swirling around Cole-to-New-York rumors morphed into Miguel Andujar, yet some speculate the Yankees offered packages around Clint Frazier for similar, cost-controlled pitchers like Chris Archer and Michael Fulmer. As you can tell from this spotty progression of events, no crystal ball exists to help fans determine how upset or thrilled they should be in regards to another pinstriped hurler.

That crystal ball also escapes us when guessing how Gerrit Cole’s evolution will proceed come 2018.

Now 27 years old, the former number one overall pick in 2011’s MLB Draft took under 200 innings of seasoning across three levels of the minors before debuting in 2013. When Cole’s slider use ticked north of 20 percent and he subsequently posted a 3.10 DRA in 2015, expectations vaulted into perennial-ace territory – and rightfully so. The Pirates, coming off a 98-win season, had their years of prior struggle to thank for the draft pick used on Cole, and the long night finally turning to day for a struggling team.

But the best laid plans often go awry. 2016 was an injury-riddled year for Cole, with minor velocity blips and a substantial dip in Cole’s swinging-strike rate (down 1.7% to 8.5%, well below average). That opened the floodgates on question marks coming into 2017, yet Cole did his due diligence to squash some concerns.

While I often shy away from omitting a chunk of a player’s career when looking ahead, Cole’s 116 innings in 2016 with his injuries create some confusion around what proportion of his struggles were driven regression versus health. For that reason, comparing Cole’s 2015 to his 2017 has its limits, but can still provide insight into the evolving tendencies of the potential Yankee.

***

The most noticeable difference in Cole’s results revolve around how often he relinquished home runs. His home-run-to-fly-ball rate jumped from 6.5 percent in 2015 to 17 percent in 2017. While this issue emerged regardless of the opposing hitter’s handedness, left-handed hitters were homering at an absurd 1.7 times per nine innings come the end of last season. Considering Cole’s ability to neutralize lefties and righties at relatively even rates in 2015, this deviation from 2015 makes me wonder what changed.

I started, as I often do, with what the pitcher altered in his repertoire.

The former UCLA Bruin became less of a fastball-dominant pitcher. While Cole’s sinker usage stayed steady versus lefties and righties, his four-seamer ticked down about seven percent across the board. How he reallocated his pitch selection is particularly interesting.

Instead of pushing towards his dominant offspeed pitch that catalyzed his hype in 2015, Cole’s slider, the righty embraced his changeup, further bolstering an already deep repertoire. While this alteration started during 2016, the pitch drew nearly even in overall usage against left-handed hitters with Cole’s slider – something I doubt many would have predicted after his dominance with his slider in 2015.

Logically, one might be tempted tie together these two points…

A: Cole was ineffective to left-handed hitters.

B: Cole’s changeup became a featured offspeed pitch to left-handed hitters.

C: Thus, Cole’s changeup was a reason he became ineffective to left-handed hitters

Ahh, If only it was that easy.

The funny thing about Cole was his changeup became his most effective pitch in 2017, trumping his slider when looking at Fangraphs “pitch info pitch values.” A pitch that was Cole’s worst offering in 2015 per this metric, became his best in 2017 relative to his other four pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider, curve).

Cole acknowledge the elevated use of his changeup as well. Noting in this MLB.com report that he wanted to feature the pitch more in 2016, but injuries bogged his feel for the pitch down; 2017 emerged as the opportune time to execute this plan.

While MLB.com leads off in that linked report by saying Cole didn’t alter his changeup, but rather gained a better feel for it, I submit that getting a better feel for a changeup is effectively altering the pitch. Some say that the only way to improve your changeup is to increase its usage and dedicate yourself to getting a better feel for the pitch. It seems basic, yet the science of changeups is an enigma. Harry Pavlidis, however, has taken a stab at uncovering the mystery. (I detailed some thoughts in another one of my recent columns about the Brewers’ lefty Josh Hader.)

Brooksbaseball pitch movement numbers seem to agree.

Comparing Cole’s changeup to its 2015 version, the pitch’s horizontal movement increased. For right-handed pitchers implies more run inside to right-handed bats, increased by nearly one inch. While that minor change is not likely a major component of the increased effectiveness, it shows that the pitch changed its tendency ever so slightly, which I venture a guess has to do with this elusive “feel” for the offering.

On top of that, consider Cole’s nearly pristine location of the pitch to left-handed hitters.

Yet this deliberation doesn’t present a reason for the collapse of Cole’s ability to keep the ball in the park and neutralize, even marginally, left-handed hitters. It merely presents backing that the effectiveness of Cole’s changeup might be here to stay.

Another attempt I took to discover the reasons behind Cole’s emergent platoon issues deals with the use, movement, and location of Cole’s fastball, which became the main pitch attributed to the home run barrage against Cole in 2017. While pitch use and movement presented no proprietary insights, before even looking at Cole’s four-seamer location, I took a guess that he elevated the pitch more to both handedness of hitters, or became inconsistent with his location of the pitch.

My latter thought holds some merit.

The larger, dark-brown area represents Cole’s 2017 four-seamer location, while the pinpoint concentration just off the center of the plate in the subsequent picture is Cole’s 2015 four-seamer location. The larger blot of brown shows, to some extent, that Cole didn’t locate as consistently, possibly making this pitch less effective, which we can confirm, and playing at least some role in his home run spike, which is harder to confirm.

This could be another “feel” issue, as Cole moves towards becoming an offspeed-dominant pitcher, but with BP’s grading of Cole’s four-seamer at 70 with a future of 75 back in 2015, I remain skeptical that the pitch deteriorated that much after once being touted so highly, even after only two seasons.

While another 1,000 words could easily be scribed regarding Cole’s various usage decisions between 2015 and 2017, and with that might come a clearer answer for his struggles. Often the process of trying to discover a culprit regarding an issue can provide some insight; I often enjoy the journey as much as the result.

This journey makes me interested to see if Cole alters his usage again to either handedness of hitter in 2018. He could call back to the shape of his 2015 slider, which if combined with his present-state changeup would make me a proponent of acquiring Cole for a high price. Or Cole could continue to tend towards off-speed dominant and never regain the effectiveness his fastball possessed in 2015. Or it could be a mixture of both, with a balance reached that produces an in-between result. A mixture of Cole’s dominant 2015 and less-dominant, but still effective 2017, could still produce north of 3 WAR.

My interest for Cole will come in 2018 whether or not he dons pinstripes for 2018.

Statistics via Baseball Prospectus (DRA, general stats), BrooksBaseball (Pitch usage), and Baseball Savant (Location, GIF data). 

Photo Credit: Brad Mills / USA TODAY Sports

This season has been one of riches for fans of the Yankees. The 3 1/2 games the club sits behind the Red Sox in the AL East heading into the All-Star break don’t do the first 96 games justice. Expectations were low coming out of spring training; another year into a soft rebuild was apt terminology for initial feelings. All that wishy-washy confidence for the future was quickly squashed in favor of the “now” after a 15-8 start to the season and numerous days atop the division. Propelled by the unlikeliest of heroes, there has been more than enough reason to watch Yankees baseball, especially with the injection of endless youth. With the debuts of Miguel Andujar, Dustin Fowler, Tyler Wade, Kyle Higashioka, Tyler Webb, and most recently Clint Frazier, one would think there is minimal talent left in their minor league system. For once, it’s a great to be sorely mistaken.

Jeff Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff released their mid-season top 50 list on Thursday, and three notable Yankees made the cut.

Gleyber Torres – (#7, #15 preseason)

I’ve written about Gleyber three times (1, 2, 3) in hopes of the trifecta of columns upon Torres’ MLB debut, but the best laid plans often go ary. A torn UCL in his non-throwing arm has sidelined the Yankees’ top prospect for the rest of 2017, meaning New York won’t see Torres in a third jersey this season, or watch him showcase his talents at the 2017 Futures Game (more on that event later). What we do know is that Torres has shown a refined approach at each level, resulting in appealing slash lines and projectability greater than any prospect we’ve seen debut in pinstripes in some time. The only real bug in his game is speculation on whether the raw power he has shown, can at some point turn itself into realized game power. If it doesn’t, we’re still looking at a viable second or third base option, but not with the caliber of upside shown by others prospects inside the top 15. Keep in mind, he was a 20 year old at AAA before the injury, and that speaks volumes for just how much to take this premature criticism with a grain of salt.

If second base is Torres’ position, he’ll feature one of the more advanced approaches up the middle from square one, with Starlin Castro’s $10 and $11 million owed in 2018 and 2019 respectively, the only barriers to eclipse. If third base – my personal guess for his early-career reps – becomes home, Chase Headley would likely be the odd man out and that doesn’t seem like it will be hard news to break to fans. Torres arrival in New York will be the most anticipated of any prospect the Yankees have stashed away in the recent years. More hyped than the debuts of Judge and Sanchez is correct.

Chance Adams – (#37, not ranked preseason)

Unlike Torres, there is an opportunity for Chance Adams to reach the Bronx this season. While the knocks on his game are height and the lack of number one starter upside, ceilings aren’t the only factor considered on a prospect lists. A mid 90s fastball, combined with an advanced, low 80s slider are his go-to offerings, while he mixes in a good changeup and a fringe curveball. Eric Longenhagen mentions that Adams’ command has been suppressed through his career due to his release point leaning on the side of inconsistent. Backed up by the similar 9-11% walk rates between levels during the second half of 2016 and early into 2017, success stories like Marcus Stroman always come to mind if you desire reasons for even more optimism. The inconsistent release point remains one minor reason why Longenhagen is concerned that Adams never finds the command to be a more than his floor indicates, but there is still so much to like with the 22 year old.

This feels like a rank based on floor to possibly even out some riskier picks by the BP Prospect Staff, but one I can’t criticize in the slightest. Adams sits ahead of higher-profile arms like the Cardinals’ Sandy Alcantara and Red Sox’s Jason Groome, and just behind a player whom I’ve personally grown fond of in the Indians’ organization, Triston McKenzie (32.4% strikeout rate, 2.91 ERA in 90 High-A innings). With the risk embedded in starting pitchers across the board, Adams’ 2.50 ERA across 55+ AAA innings and little worry about health are great signs, and likely the reasons why he has vaulted into the top 40 prospects on BP’s list.

Justus Sheffield – (#47, #52 preseason)

Most notable is the leap Adams made over Sheffield to the number one pitching prospect in the organization. The move was warranted after seeing the results this lefty had at AA Trenton compared to Adams, and gaining the knowledge that Sheffield has yet to find his way to Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Although his 3.09 ERA looks near pristine, the present concern is the career-low strikeout rate of 20.2%. He’s also shorter than Adams – who as we now know gets knocked for his height – and tinkered with his repertoire early this season, which could make assuming too much off his early 2017 stats a big error in the aggregate.

I like the fact Sheffield’s stock hasn’t taken a hit due to the results not resembling that of Adams. One way of looking at it is that hope for Adams increased while Sheffield’s stayed the same. That alone bodes well for the confidence surrounding his makeup, and before we know it, this southpaw might be replacing Adams at AAA due to the higher-ranked prospects promotion. Sheffield’s promotion won’t be far off afterwards.

Note: Sheffield was placed on the Minor League DL Wednesday, July 7th, with an oblique strain.

2017 Futures Game 

The Yankees had two representatives in the kick-off event of All-Star weekend: Pitcher Domingo Acevedo and outfielder Estevan Florial. The most interesting perk for a baseball nerd like myself? MLB’s Facebook page live streaming batting practice for each of teams. That’s where I got my first look at Florial in a resolution that wasn’t home video quality, and even though the common “five tools” tag on another farmhand becomes redundant, it’s tough to nix the assessment.

The first thing I noticed was the natural uppercut in Florial’s swing, similar aesthetically, but less exaggerated than the bat path of Freddie Freeman. It’s a swing that will lead to a decent amount of swing and miss, but also a lot of game power. Both were confirmed after observing the 30% strikeout rate and .502 slugging percentage he has through 74 games in A ball. In the game itself, the 19-year-old slotted in for two at bats, both against southpaws. He struck out against the Royals’ Foster Griffin and walked against the Athletics’ touted draft steal A.J. Puk. Each at bats gave us six pitches to look at, and from MLB.com’s pitch tracker, only three of the 12 were actually in the zone. Griffin elevated everything to Florial, while Puk buried everything away. Florial handled Griffin’s breaking pitches well, but whiffed on a great slider from Puk. Tough to infer much from the at bats themselves with such little exposure, but anytime a 19-year-old fits in with the caliber of young talent in this game, it’s a great sign.

Acevedo on the other hand faired much worse after allowing three runs on four hits and failing to showcase the power fastball he leverages from his 6’7″, 250 pound frame. The big righty has struggled since his promotion to AAA this season, after mowing through Trenton with ease. Only 12.1 innings into his final step before the Bronx, higher-level competition seems to have faired well off him, but as the the New York post highlighted after the game, Acevedo acknowledged the lapse and wants to learn from the experience. Compared to the youth in the Futures Game and in the Yankees’ system, Acevedo can be considered a veteran at 23 years old, and his wisdom may help to overcome any struggles sooner than later.

Some of this column’s details were reiterated from BP’s top 50 mid-season prospects list that I’ve linked to within, and will do so again here. Massive thanks to Jeff Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff for their hard work and expertise.