.@TorresGleyber leads all Major League hitters with five three-run homers this season.

— Yankees PR Dept. (@YankeesPR) June 15, 2018

Gleyber has been incredible since his promotion. It’s impressive that he leads the league in three-run home runs, even though it’s somewhat of an arbitrary thing – have to be in the right place at the right time. Still, there’s more to these select home runs than that they put three runs on the board. Let’s take a look at each one:

May 4: His first career home run

It was scoreless against Cleveland in the fourth inning until Torres stepped up to the plate. The rook didn’t wait long, as he launched the first pitch Josh Tomlin offered. The offering came in slowly and departed the ballpark quickly. Tomlin’s 73 MPH curveball hung in the heart of the zone and Gleyber crushed it 420 feet and a hair under 106 MPH.

First career home runs are often memorable. One that’s hard to forget was Aaron Judge’s first blast, a moonshot off the restaurant above Monument Park. Sometimes, they can be a sign of things to come. We’re used to Judge’s mammoth shots nowadays, but even after Torres’s first blast, nobody was expecting him to turn into a power hitter. Twelve home runs later, and here we are. It sure seems like power is part of his game.

Not only this home run a sign of his power, but it also foreshadowed many of his future home runs. There are four more three-run dingers to be discussed ahead, as obvious from the format of this piece, but I’ll spare you from spoilers on what else it foreshadowed for now.

May 6: The walk-off

This one has to be everyone’s favorite Torres home run thus far, right? Everyone loves a good walk-off homer, especially from a rookie with promise. It capped off an epic win, as the Yankees were down 4-0 with only four outs to play with.

The comeback began in the eighth thanks to a two-out rally, and the Bombers eventually tied it in the ninth on a Neil Walker double. Those runs came against Cody Allen, who was going for a six out save. After the score was even, Terry Francona lifted his closer in favor of Dan Otero. A couple of batters later, after an intentional walk to Giancarlo Stanton, up came Torres. On a full count pitch, Torres did not miss. He launched an 88 MPH sinker into the Yankees bullpen in right-center. Like his first home run, this one was no cheapie: 104 MPH off the bat and it traveled 415 feet.

May 19: A theme emerges

The score was level at two apiece in Kansas City with southpaw Danny Duffy on the mound when Torres struck again. Clint Frazier and Ronald Torreyes reached base to start the frame. Do I really need to tell you what happened next? Yes, Torres connected on another three-run homer. It was his fourth long ball of the year and third of the three-run variety. Perhaps more impressive was that this came on a 1-2 pitch, which is a count that most hitters are looking to simply put the ball in play. Torres got a hanging slider and probably could have settled for a single with a protective two out hack. Instead, he recognized the opportunity and punished the ball 106 MPH and 407 feet.

So, what about the theme I hinted at in the subhead? No, it’s not three-run dingers. That’s the overarching topic here. Rather, the theme is that all of them to this point were with the game tied. And that leads us to…

May 23: Yet another tiebreaker

The series against the Rangers in Texas was when Torres went on a big power surge. During that three-game series, he hit four long balls (and one in each game). His one three-run shot of the bunch came in the rubber game of the set. The details:

In the top of the fifth inning, the score was tied at five. Up came Torres with two runners aboard. As you know by now, Torres only hits clutch three-run bombs when the game is tied. Behind in the count 0-2, Rangers’ starter, Doug Fister tried to jam the 21-year-old with an 88 MPH two-seamer. Torres kept his hands in, turned on the pitch, and skied it into the left field seats 401 feet away from home plate. The ball left his bat over 101 MPH.

Know what else these three-run home runs have in common? Three of the four came on two-strike counts. The walk-off was on a full count, the one in Kansas City was on a 1-2 pitch, and this one 0-2. So much for protecting the plate when down to the last strike!

Unfortunately, the Yankees bullpen lost this game in horrendous fashion, blowing a 10-5 lead to eventually lose 12-10. That stinker sort of washed away the memory of Torres’s heroics.

June 14: Coming up clutch (again)

It took three weeks for Torres to deliver another three-run homer. Slacker. On this most recent one, Torres bucked the trend of tiebreakers.

Down 2-0 to Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell in the fifth, Aaron Hicks hit an opposite-field homer to right to cut the lead to one run. A few batters later, Torres came up in a familiar situation: with two runners on base. Like clockwork, he delivered. Snell tried to zip a 3-2 fastball past Torres after blowing similar pitches by him earlier. This time, Torres was ready, as he drilled his fifth three-run homer to left. 96 MPH in, 102 MPH out. When it landed 393 feet away, the Yankees were up 4-2.

Wait a second, this one wasn’t with the score tied, what gives? Hey, hitting one down a run is even better.

—

Aaron Boone’s lineup is a juggernaut. There are certainly better hitters than Torres on this team – at least for now – such as Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez. I know that Stanton and Sanchez have been underwhelming, but they have the track record over Torres. Yet, is there anyone you’d rather have up than Gleyber in an important situation? I don’t think so. Not only have all five of his three-run home runs come with the game tied or the Yankees down one run, but he also has a 410 wRC+ in high leverage situations. This 21-year-old’s composure has been nothing short of remarkable.

Photo Credit: Noah K. Murray / USA TODAY Sports

On Friday night, the phenom, who was already responsible for the Yankees’ first run thanks to an infield hit, stepped up to the plate against reliever Jim Johnson in the bottom of the seventh inning—Johnson came into the game after manager Mike Scioscia the Angels’ starter Andrew Heaney. Johnson retired Miguel Andujar for the second out of the inning and was trying to get Torres for the final out. The first pitch was a called strike and the next three offerings from Johnson missed the plate and the rookie didn’t bite.

Johnson threw Torres a 95 mph pitch that was low and outside and Torres hit it to right center to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead.

Torres is now batting .333/.393/.646 with nine home runs in 108 plate appearances. Every time you think he can’t get better, he does. In a fun twist, the last 21-year-old to hit a home run in four straight games is Torres’ teammate Giancarlo Stanton who did in 2011 with the Marlins.

Photo credit: Brad Penner / USA TODAY Sports

EJ, Paul, and Andy discuss the fallout of the two rainouts against Washington, the Brandon Drury demotion, the Supreme Court’s decision to allow states to legalize sports gambling, Clint Frazier’s promotion to the major leagues, and where Gleyber Torres should bat.

The Yankees are on a certifiable hot streak. 15 of the last 16 games have ended with John Sterling belting out, “THEEEEEEE YANKEES WIN!” They’ve have gotten fantastic pitching from young stars (Luis Severino), old vets (CC Sabathia), and rookies (Domingo German, wow!). There’s been clutch hitting from nearly everyone in the lineup, with a new hero leading the team to victory each day.

There have been a few blowouts, such as the 14-1 obliteration of Minnesota on April 23, and the 11-1 bludgeoning in Anaheim on April 28. But the hallmark of the Yankees’ unbelievable run has been late-inning drama. Incredibly, 6 of the 15 wins featured the go-ahead run in the ninth inning or later. It’s almost too many fairy tale endings to keep track of. Here is a recap of the 5 biggest hits of the hot streak by WPA.

5) May 6: Neil Walker RBI Double, 36% WPA

The aforementioned walk-off bomb from #GleyberGood wasn’t the biggest hit of the game. In fact, it wasn’t even the biggest hit of the inning! Trailing 4-3 entering the bottom of the ninth, Aaron Hicks starting things off with a double. Neil Walker followed with another line drive double to right field, tying the score. Walker’s hit was worth 36% WPA, increasing the Yankee odds of winning from 46% to 82%. After a groundout by Miguel Andujar and an intentional walk to Giancarlo Stanton, Torres increased the win expectancy from 71% to 100% with his moonshot to right-center.

4) May 4: Miguel Andujar Game-Winning Single, 36% WPA

The opening match of the Cleveland series was an emotional whirlwind. The Yankee bullpen blew a 5-0 lead in the top of the 8th inning, thanks to a three-run smash by Bradley Zimmer. In the bottom of the frame, the Yankees regained the lead with a two-out, bases loaded walk by Aaron Judge. However, Aroldis Chapman failed to shut the door, yielding a single to Yan Gomes, a HBP, and two wild pitches. With the score tied at 6 in the bottom of the ninth, Stanton led off with a double. Gary Sanchez flew out to right field and Hicks grounded out to the right side, advancing Stanton to third. Walker walked (which is a fun phrase to type), then took second on defensive indifference. That brought up Andujar, who slapped one into right field on a 1-2 count, scoring Stanton to win the game. The base hit was worth 36% WPA, but perhaps it should be penalized because Didi Gregorius was kicked in the head during the celebration. With all these dramatic wins, you’d think the team would know how to celebrate more safely.

3) April 27: Didi Gregorius 10th Inning Home Run, 38% WPA

In the first game of the road trip, the Yankees trailed the Angels 3-2 in the 9th inning. Brett Gardner hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game with the bases loaded and one out. David Robertson pitched a flawless bottom of the ninth, sending the game to extra innings. With one out in the 10th, Gregorius did this:

The blast increased the Yankees’ chances of winning from 44% to 82%. Chapman nailed down the victory in the bottom of the inning, 4-3 Yankees.

2) May 3: Gleyber Torres Two-Run Single, 39% WPA

Gleyber does make the cut after all! Astros closer Ken Giles was out of commission after getting blown up the day before (and perhaps nursing a bruised jaw), so Will Harris took on the Yankees in the top of the ninth with a 5-3 lead. He surrendered a walk to Walker (there it is again!) and singles to Andujar and Hicks to load the bases with no outs. Brad Peacock came in to face Torres, who lined a single to left to tie the game. Two batters later, Hicks scored on a groundout to give the Yankees the lead, which Chapman preserved for a victory. The Torres single was the big play, of course, improving the Yankees’ win expectancy from 42% to 81%.

1) April 26: UNLEASH THE KRAKEN, 66% WPA

When Sanchez stepped to bat in the bottom of the ninth, the Yankees had just a 34% chance of beating the Twins. They were trailing 3-1 with two men on base and no outs. His blast traveled 381 feet and miraculously stayed inside the foul pole. Everybody goes home, 4-3 Yankees. A WPA event of 30% or higher is rare. A 66% WPA event can almost exclusively be a come-from-behind, walk-off winner like Gary’s. Much like the Yankees’ entire hot streak, it should be savored and remembered.

Photo Credit: Adam Hunger / USA TODAY Sports

EJ and Scott discuss the implications of the Neil Walker signing for the Yankees infield and Gleyber Torres.

Even though there’s plenty of warranted excitement regarding Torres’s talent and the timing of his return, the Yankees should have a contingency in place if something goes awry. For as great of a prospect Torres is, there’s still a lot that can go wrong in a player’s rookie campaign. I don’t enjoy being the one to rain on everyone’s parade, but it’s fair to expect the Yankees to have an alternative ready at the season’s outset. The Yankees should try to do something similar to what they did for Greg Bird last season when they signed Chris Carter as a reserve coming off of Bird’s shoulder recovery. Obviously, Carter was a complete flop, but the Yankees’ intent and thought process was appropriate. The team shouldn’t be shy to try something like that again to protect Torres. Doing so before the season starts would be preferable, as scrambling at the trade deadline would be costly.

This offseason has been notoriously slow, so it’s not alarming that the Yankees currently don’t have any sort of backup plan in place for both the keystone and hot corner. That said, it doesn’t seem like the team is overly worried about the infield as it stands:

“We are not prioritizing any one thing, we are ready to go with what we have got,” general manager Brian Cashman told The Post. “We are open-minded to opportunities whether they be positionally or pitching. We are not prioritizing to add to the youth competition at third and second over the rotation option. We will take any opportunity to improve the club. If it makes enough sense, we’ll execute it.”

Cashman said part of trading Starlin Castro and Chase Headley this offseason was a belief in the young group that remains. He noted a lot of teams decide to go with young players “for better or worse.” But these Yankees have championship aspirations and if the youth doesn’t work instantly they would have huge holes from the outset.

Maybe that’s just GM-speak. Cashman doesn’t want to reveal his hand, of course. After all, Cashman said something similar about Bubba Crosby way back in 2005. Not that Crosby was some special prospect – far from it, in fact – but this wouldn’t be the first time that Cashman has stated his intention to go in-house while doing otherwise later. Thus, I wouldn’t be worried about the Yankees standing pat around the diamond. Rather, I think the question is: will Cashman acquire one or two infielders?

I believe the answer to that question is one fielder, and the reason is twofold: one, payroll management; and two, the belief in Torres. When it comes to payroll, this might be a situation where less is more. The front office might be willing to spend for one infielder, but two might be too much especially if ownership requires sufficient breathing room under the luxury tax threshold. That would mean extensive playing time for Ronald Torreyes, Tyler Wade, or Miguel Andujar. As it pertains to Torres, obviously the club’s internal evaluations are glowing, which makes it more likely that one additional acquisition is enough.

From my perspective, obtaining just one infielder isn’t enough. Ideally, the front office would do the following:

1. Add one full-time starter at second or third base, whichever of the two positions the team feels Torres is less likely to wind up at. Let’s assume that the team is grooming Torres to play second base, so the team would acquire a primary third baseman.
2. Add one stopgap player at the position the Yankees are grooming to play Torres at. Following the assumption from the first point, this would be an infielder capable of playing second base.

If I had my way, a reunion with Todd Frazier on a one-year deal would complete step one. Yes, I know, Manny Machado is probably the true ideal scenario at third, but that seems incredibly unlikely. For step two, signing someone like Howie Kendrick or Neil Walker on another one-year pact makes sense. Of course, this is all a lot easier said than done for a myriad of reasons.

Even though the scenario I’ve envisioned wouldn’t be simple to pull off, let’s focus on why I believe it’s a wise plan. The purpose is a bit more important than the hypothetical names that the Yankees wind up getting. These two moves would accomplish a few things. One, it would provide the Yankees stability at third base. Although Andujar has a lot of upside, he’s also a rookie and isn’t known for his defensive chops. Frazier should offer league average performance, something the Yankees can’t count on Andujar (or Torres) to provide just yet. Further, Kendrick or Walker would be strong safety nets at second base. Look, Torreyes is extremely likable and Wade has some potential, but the idea of the two platooning for a big chunk of the season if Torres isn’t ready makes me nervous. Besides, if Torres grabs second base by the horns, Kendrick or Walker would be excellent bench options.

Nobody likes to hear that there’s a chance a top prospect won’t fulfill his potential immediately. It’s reality, though. Many prospects struggle in their first opportunity at the big league level before figuring things out a year later. If Mike Trout and Aaron Judge scuffled to start their careers, Torres can too. That’s why the Yankees need to have adequate fallback options around the infield, especially on a team that is expected to contend in 2018. It’s not that the Yankees should expect Torres to be bad, but rather, it would be a hedge against Torres not being a significant contributor until 2019. If that comes to fruition, then the Yankees can survive the course of the year without needing to make a desperation upgrade over Torreyes/Wade at the trade deadline. If Torres winds up being great immediately, then great! That would make the stopgap player solid bench depth. High expectations for Torres are absolutely merited, but that doesn’t mean the Yankees shouldn’t be prepared for a detour along the road to hopeful stardom.

(Photo credit: Kim Klement / USA Today)

On December 16, the Pirates were pushing for top prospect Gleyber Torres. A week later, four more Yankee prospects were tossed around in some combination: Estevan Florial, Justus Sheffield, Clint Frazier, and Chance Adams. Lately, the name swirling around Cole-to-New-York rumors morphed into Miguel Andujar, yet some speculate the Yankees offered packages around Clint Frazier for similar, cost-controlled pitchers like Chris Archer and Michael Fulmer. As you can tell from this spotty progression of events, no crystal ball exists to help fans determine how upset or thrilled they should be in regards to another pinstriped hurler.

That crystal ball also escapes us when guessing how Gerrit Cole’s evolution will proceed come 2018.

Now 27 years old, the former number one overall pick in 2011’s MLB Draft took under 200 innings of seasoning across three levels of the minors before debuting in 2013. When Cole’s slider use ticked north of 20 percent and he subsequently posted a 3.10 DRA in 2015, expectations vaulted into perennial-ace territory – and rightfully so. The Pirates, coming off a 98-win season, had their years of prior struggle to thank for the draft pick used on Cole, and the long night finally turning to day for a struggling team.

But the best laid plans often go awry. 2016 was an injury-riddled year for Cole, with minor velocity blips and a substantial dip in Cole’s swinging-strike rate (down 1.7% to 8.5%, well below average). That opened the floodgates on question marks coming into 2017, yet Cole did his due diligence to squash some concerns.

While I often shy away from omitting a chunk of a player’s career when looking ahead, Cole’s 116 innings in 2016 with his injuries create some confusion around what proportion of his struggles were driven regression versus health. For that reason, comparing Cole’s 2015 to his 2017 has its limits, but can still provide insight into the evolving tendencies of the potential Yankee.

***

The most noticeable difference in Cole’s results revolve around how often he relinquished home runs. His home-run-to-fly-ball rate jumped from 6.5 percent in 2015 to 17 percent in 2017. While this issue emerged regardless of the opposing hitter’s handedness, left-handed hitters were homering at an absurd 1.7 times per nine innings come the end of last season. Considering Cole’s ability to neutralize lefties and righties at relatively even rates in 2015, this deviation from 2015 makes me wonder what changed.

I started, as I often do, with what the pitcher altered in his repertoire.

The former UCLA Bruin became less of a fastball-dominant pitcher. While Cole’s sinker usage stayed steady versus lefties and righties, his four-seamer ticked down about seven percent across the board. How he reallocated his pitch selection is particularly interesting.

Instead of pushing towards his dominant offspeed pitch that catalyzed his hype in 2015, Cole’s slider, the righty embraced his changeup, further bolstering an already deep repertoire. While this alteration started during 2016, the pitch drew nearly even in overall usage against left-handed hitters with Cole’s slider – something I doubt many would have predicted after his dominance with his slider in 2015.

Logically, one might be tempted tie together these two points…

A: Cole was ineffective to left-handed hitters.

B: Cole’s changeup became a featured offspeed pitch to left-handed hitters.

C: Thus, Cole’s changeup was a reason he became ineffective to left-handed hitters

Ahh, If only it was that easy.

The funny thing about Cole was his changeup became his most effective pitch in 2017, trumping his slider when looking at Fangraphs “pitch info pitch values.” A pitch that was Cole’s worst offering in 2015 per this metric, became his best in 2017 relative to his other four pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider, curve).

Cole acknowledge the elevated use of his changeup as well. Noting in this MLB.com report that he wanted to feature the pitch more in 2016, but injuries bogged his feel for the pitch down; 2017 emerged as the opportune time to execute this plan.

While MLB.com leads off in that linked report by saying Cole didn’t alter his changeup, but rather gained a better feel for it, I submit that getting a better feel for a changeup is effectively altering the pitch. Some say that the only way to improve your changeup is to increase its usage and dedicate yourself to getting a better feel for the pitch. It seems basic, yet the science of changeups is an enigma. Harry Pavlidis, however, has taken a stab at uncovering the mystery. (I detailed some thoughts in another one of my recent columns about the Brewers’ lefty Josh Hader.)

Brooksbaseball pitch movement numbers seem to agree.

Comparing Cole’s changeup to its 2015 version, the pitch’s horizontal movement increased. For right-handed pitchers implies more run inside to right-handed bats, increased by nearly one inch. While that minor change is not likely a major component of the increased effectiveness, it shows that the pitch changed its tendency ever so slightly, which I venture a guess has to do with this elusive “feel” for the offering.

On top of that, consider Cole’s nearly pristine location of the pitch to left-handed hitters.

Yet this deliberation doesn’t present a reason for the collapse of Cole’s ability to keep the ball in the park and neutralize, even marginally, left-handed hitters. It merely presents backing that the effectiveness of Cole’s changeup might be here to stay.

Another attempt I took to discover the reasons behind Cole’s emergent platoon issues deals with the use, movement, and location of Cole’s fastball, which became the main pitch attributed to the home run barrage against Cole in 2017. While pitch use and movement presented no proprietary insights, before even looking at Cole’s four-seamer location, I took a guess that he elevated the pitch more to both handedness of hitters, or became inconsistent with his location of the pitch.

My latter thought holds some merit.

The larger, dark-brown area represents Cole’s 2017 four-seamer location, while the pinpoint concentration just off the center of the plate in the subsequent picture is Cole’s 2015 four-seamer location. The larger blot of brown shows, to some extent, that Cole didn’t locate as consistently, possibly making this pitch less effective, which we can confirm, and playing at least some role in his home run spike, which is harder to confirm.

This could be another “feel” issue, as Cole moves towards becoming an offspeed-dominant pitcher, but with BP’s grading of Cole’s four-seamer at 70 with a future of 75 back in 2015, I remain skeptical that the pitch deteriorated that much after once being touted so highly, even after only two seasons.

While another 1,000 words could easily be scribed regarding Cole’s various usage decisions between 2015 and 2017, and with that might come a clearer answer for his struggles. Often the process of trying to discover a culprit regarding an issue can provide some insight; I often enjoy the journey as much as the result.

This journey makes me interested to see if Cole alters his usage again to either handedness of hitter in 2018. He could call back to the shape of his 2015 slider, which if combined with his present-state changeup would make me a proponent of acquiring Cole for a high price. Or Cole could continue to tend towards off-speed dominant and never regain the effectiveness his fastball possessed in 2015. Or it could be a mixture of both, with a balance reached that produces an in-between result. A mixture of Cole’s dominant 2015 and less-dominant, but still effective 2017, could still produce north of 3 WAR.

My interest for Cole will come in 2018 whether or not he dons pinstripes for 2018.

Statistics via Baseball Prospectus (DRA, general stats), BrooksBaseball (Pitch usage), and Baseball Savant (Location, GIF data). 

Photo Credit: Brad Mills / USA TODAY Sports

However, Brian Cashman has a (good) problem: he doesn’t need the deepest farm system in baseball. The Yankees roster is loaded with top, young talent under team control for some time. The team is already running into a bad 40-man roster situation, which will get worse. For example, I’ve hypothesized on the podcast that the reason Chance Adams wasn’t called up to the majors last summer was that the Yankees didn’t need to protect him in this year’s Rule V draft. The Yankee bullpen is so stacked that guys like Domingo German an Ben Heller were mostly wasted at Triple-A last year, despite excellent performances. Baseball has structured its roster system to put a cap on the number of good advanced players an organization can hold on to. And on top of it all, the Yankees have the money to acquire top talent in free agency if their farm system fails to produce at a position.

The solution to Cashman’s problem? Trade your excess capacity. He can swing trades while still holding on to Gleyber Torres, Estevan Florial, and all of our recent call-ups. Right away, the Yankees could use upgrades at starting pitcher (versus CC Sabathia), designated hitter, backup catcher, and left-handed relief. Even if the Yankees take a loss in an absolute sense on some of these trades (buying at more than the market price), the Yankees have the excess capacity to still end up better off.

And here’s the beautiful thing: the Yankees are more constrained by money right now than they are by trading chips. Pre-free agency players acquired by trade are cheaper than worse free agents purchased on the free market. Any money saved frees up further excess capacity to fill other holes in free agency. Put differently, trading away a bunch of prospects to acquire a cheap DH and starting pitcher makes it more likely the Yankees can sign Manny Machado.

So get trading, Cashman!

This season has been one of riches for fans of the Yankees. The 3 1/2 games the club sits behind the Red Sox in the AL East heading into the All-Star break don’t do the first 96 games justice. Expectations were low coming out of spring training; another year into a soft rebuild was apt terminology for initial feelings. All that wishy-washy confidence for the future was quickly squashed in favor of the “now” after a 15-8 start to the season and numerous days atop the division. Propelled by the unlikeliest of heroes, there has been more than enough reason to watch Yankees baseball, especially with the injection of endless youth. With the debuts of Miguel Andujar, Dustin Fowler, Tyler Wade, Kyle Higashioka, Tyler Webb, and most recently Clint Frazier, one would think there is minimal talent left in their minor league system. For once, it’s a great to be sorely mistaken.

Jeff Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff released their mid-season top 50 list on Thursday, and three notable Yankees made the cut.

Gleyber Torres – (#7, #15 preseason)

I’ve written about Gleyber three times (1, 2, 3) in hopes of the trifecta of columns upon Torres’ MLB debut, but the best laid plans often go ary. A torn UCL in his non-throwing arm has sidelined the Yankees’ top prospect for the rest of 2017, meaning New York won’t see Torres in a third jersey this season, or watch him showcase his talents at the 2017 Futures Game (more on that event later). What we do know is that Torres has shown a refined approach at each level, resulting in appealing slash lines and projectability greater than any prospect we’ve seen debut in pinstripes in some time. The only real bug in his game is speculation on whether the raw power he has shown, can at some point turn itself into realized game power. If it doesn’t, we’re still looking at a viable second or third base option, but not with the caliber of upside shown by others prospects inside the top 15. Keep in mind, he was a 20 year old at AAA before the injury, and that speaks volumes for just how much to take this premature criticism with a grain of salt.

If second base is Torres’ position, he’ll feature one of the more advanced approaches up the middle from square one, with Starlin Castro’s $10 and $11 million owed in 2018 and 2019 respectively, the only barriers to eclipse. If third base – my personal guess for his early-career reps – becomes home, Chase Headley would likely be the odd man out and that doesn’t seem like it will be hard news to break to fans. Torres arrival in New York will be the most anticipated of any prospect the Yankees have stashed away in the recent years. More hyped than the debuts of Judge and Sanchez is correct.

Chance Adams – (#37, not ranked preseason)

Unlike Torres, there is an opportunity for Chance Adams to reach the Bronx this season. While the knocks on his game are height and the lack of number one starter upside, ceilings aren’t the only factor considered on a prospect lists. A mid 90s fastball, combined with an advanced, low 80s slider are his go-to offerings, while he mixes in a good changeup and a fringe curveball. Eric Longenhagen mentions that Adams’ command has been suppressed through his career due to his release point leaning on the side of inconsistent. Backed up by the similar 9-11% walk rates between levels during the second half of 2016 and early into 2017, success stories like Marcus Stroman always come to mind if you desire reasons for even more optimism. The inconsistent release point remains one minor reason why Longenhagen is concerned that Adams never finds the command to be a more than his floor indicates, but there is still so much to like with the 22 year old.

This feels like a rank based on floor to possibly even out some riskier picks by the BP Prospect Staff, but one I can’t criticize in the slightest. Adams sits ahead of higher-profile arms like the Cardinals’ Sandy Alcantara and Red Sox’s Jason Groome, and just behind a player whom I’ve personally grown fond of in the Indians’ organization, Triston McKenzie (32.4% strikeout rate, 2.91 ERA in 90 High-A innings). With the risk embedded in starting pitchers across the board, Adams’ 2.50 ERA across 55+ AAA innings and little worry about health are great signs, and likely the reasons why he has vaulted into the top 40 prospects on BP’s list.

Justus Sheffield – (#47, #52 preseason)

Most notable is the leap Adams made over Sheffield to the number one pitching prospect in the organization. The move was warranted after seeing the results this lefty had at AA Trenton compared to Adams, and gaining the knowledge that Sheffield has yet to find his way to Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Although his 3.09 ERA looks near pristine, the present concern is the career-low strikeout rate of 20.2%. He’s also shorter than Adams – who as we now know gets knocked for his height – and tinkered with his repertoire early this season, which could make assuming too much off his early 2017 stats a big error in the aggregate.

I like the fact Sheffield’s stock hasn’t taken a hit due to the results not resembling that of Adams. One way of looking at it is that hope for Adams increased while Sheffield’s stayed the same. That alone bodes well for the confidence surrounding his makeup, and before we know it, this southpaw might be replacing Adams at AAA due to the higher-ranked prospects promotion. Sheffield’s promotion won’t be far off afterwards.

Note: Sheffield was placed on the Minor League DL Wednesday, July 7th, with an oblique strain.

2017 Futures Game 

The Yankees had two representatives in the kick-off event of All-Star weekend: Pitcher Domingo Acevedo and outfielder Estevan Florial. The most interesting perk for a baseball nerd like myself? MLB’s Facebook page live streaming batting practice for each of teams. That’s where I got my first look at Florial in a resolution that wasn’t home video quality, and even though the common “five tools” tag on another farmhand becomes redundant, it’s tough to nix the assessment.

The first thing I noticed was the natural uppercut in Florial’s swing, similar aesthetically, but less exaggerated than the bat path of Freddie Freeman. It’s a swing that will lead to a decent amount of swing and miss, but also a lot of game power. Both were confirmed after observing the 30% strikeout rate and .502 slugging percentage he has through 74 games in A ball. In the game itself, the 19-year-old slotted in for two at bats, both against southpaws. He struck out against the Royals’ Foster Griffin and walked against the Athletics’ touted draft steal A.J. Puk. Each at bats gave us six pitches to look at, and from MLB.com’s pitch tracker, only three of the 12 were actually in the zone. Griffin elevated everything to Florial, while Puk buried everything away. Florial handled Griffin’s breaking pitches well, but whiffed on a great slider from Puk. Tough to infer much from the at bats themselves with such little exposure, but anytime a 19-year-old fits in with the caliber of young talent in this game, it’s a great sign.

Acevedo on the other hand faired much worse after allowing three runs on four hits and failing to showcase the power fastball he leverages from his 6’7″, 250 pound frame. The big righty has struggled since his promotion to AAA this season, after mowing through Trenton with ease. Only 12.1 innings into his final step before the Bronx, higher-level competition seems to have faired well off him, but as the the New York post highlighted after the game, Acevedo acknowledged the lapse and wants to learn from the experience. Compared to the youth in the Futures Game and in the Yankees’ system, Acevedo can be considered a veteran at 23 years old, and his wisdom may help to overcome any struggles sooner than later.

Some of this column’s details were reiterated from BP’s top 50 mid-season prospects list that I’ve linked to within, and will do so again here. Massive thanks to Jeff Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff for their hard work and expertise. 

Torres will undergo Tommy John Surgery to repair a torn UCL in his non-throwing elbow. An injury sustained Saturday as he slid into home plate head-first, in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays’ AAA affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons.

A column from the New York Daily News brought with it some insight into the timetable for his return, as well as the sly dismissal by Brian Cashman that Torres was an option to see time in the big leagues at some point in the next few months. Torres should be ready for Spring Training 2018 and even with my love for Cashman, we can call his bluff on the Torres debut that could have been.

The corresponding move to take Torres’ roster spot is the promotion of fringe top 10 prospect Miguel Andujar to AAA. I say fringe because Baseball Prospectus has him ranked as a “lottery ticket” while other sites place him just outside their top 10. Raw tools and upside are a combination of characteristics often mushed together, blanketing a good majority of prospects in any team’s organization, but it’s an apt descriptor for this Venezuelan righty bat. Andjuar possesses well above average bat speed, with raw power to his pull side, but is prone to the weak fly balls; a knock on a lot of hard swinging 22 year olds. With an arm that grades out at 70 per Jarrett Seidler (20-80, 70 is “plus-plus” aka, very good), he has the ability to stick at third, but needs to polish up his actions to become a viable option at the hot corner.

Almost as if it was meant to be, I had the pleasure of watching Andujar in Hartford, CT last Thursday, with his now former team, the Trenton Thunder. After reading scouting reports post-game, I couldn’t speak more to the athleticism he showed, and also the raw and mildly immature actions Seidler and company have cited as the key to smoothing out his game. I love the upside he possesses, and find myself instinctively attracted to any prospect with plus raw power and a sub 15% strikeout rate at AA. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Andujar as he showcases his talents in Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Seidler closes his Andujar blurb with a great catch-all statement.

“If nothing else, he’s a walking highlight reel complete with enthusiasm and hustle…” – Jarrett Seidler (link)

With Andjuar’s showcase set for AAA, it’s important to point out the order of names Cashman rattled off when presumably asked about the Yankees’ third base situation (NY Daily News). Chase Headley, Ronald Torreyes, and Tyler Wade. The former two we’re all too familiar with, while the latter – I would bet – eventually sees some time in pinstripes. Let’s start with Headley.

The issue I think we have with the perception of Headley is that mediocrity is not the best medicine when you have a 20-year-old phenom who can do the same thing, sitting the in the minor leagues (RIP 2017 Gleybermania). It’s not that Headley has been atrocious, he’s just below average in the things that matter: offense and defense. Difficult to infer on aesthetics alone, his base-running and six stolen bases through 62 games seem to be buoying his overall production metrics. Projecting out to be a 2 WARP player, there isn’t anything less exciting for fans who have the honor of watching Aaron Judge take batting practice, than also watching Headley do the same. Is former MVP candidate a liability? I would argue not, but if Cashman ever wanted to induce a bit more flare than the name Headley will ever have sharpied onto a lineup card, the other non-Torres option in the minors is Wade.

Regarded as an outfielder with a middle infielder’s hands, Wade possesses plus game speed, with 46 steals over his last two minor league seasons. The decision for Wade to see time at third base – nine games in 2017 (AAA) – is a bit perplexing especially given his tag as an above-average utility man, but the arm strength allows for a fit in small doses from my perspective. Currently slashing .324/.384/.466 in 63 games at AAA, Wade’s profile is one that will indeed be unique for a utility third baseman, which Cashman seems to imply as another depth option in his chat with reporters. Better than Headley? Well, I’ll give him different than Headley, and with some upside in every young bat, different may suffice without Torres. Wade’s offensive profile is one that might remind some Yankees fans of Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, and I think the faithful would stomach that over the current option.

Whichever path Cashman decides to walk, regardless of his skirting around the topic to journalists, my guess is – hold onto your seat – it won’t be as exciting as Torres. But if average production is all that the Yankees can muster, mixing and matching between Headley, the plus glove of Torreyes, or the speed of Wade, isn’t the worst of situations to be in. Especially with an offense that is firing on all possible cylinders.

Get well soon Torres, New York wants to fill the hot corner with a fresh face to purify the once sinful hot corner of New York.