On December 16, the Pirates were pushing for top prospect Gleyber Torres. A week later, four more Yankee prospects were tossed around in some combination: Estevan Florial, Justus Sheffield, Clint Frazier, and Chance Adams. Lately, the name swirling around Cole-to-New-York rumors morphed into Miguel Andujar, yet some speculate the Yankees offered packages around Clint Frazier for similar, cost-controlled pitchers like Chris Archer and Michael Fulmer. As you can tell from this spotty progression of events, no crystal ball exists to help fans determine how upset or thrilled they should be in regards to another pinstriped hurler.

That crystal ball also escapes us when guessing how Gerrit Cole’s evolution will proceed come 2018.

Now 27 years old, the former number one overall pick in 2011’s MLB Draft took under 200 innings of seasoning across three levels of the minors before debuting in 2013. When Cole’s slider use ticked north of 20 percent and he subsequently posted a 3.10 DRA in 2015, expectations vaulted into perennial-ace territory – and rightfully so. The Pirates, coming off a 98-win season, had their years of prior struggle to thank for the draft pick used on Cole, and the long night finally turning to day for a struggling team.

But the best laid plans often go awry. 2016 was an injury-riddled year for Cole, with minor velocity blips and a substantial dip in Cole’s swinging-strike rate (down 1.7% to 8.5%, well below average). That opened the floodgates on question marks coming into 2017, yet Cole did his due diligence to squash some concerns.

While I often shy away from omitting a chunk of a player’s career when looking ahead, Cole’s 116 innings in 2016 with his injuries create some confusion around what proportion of his struggles were driven regression versus health. For that reason, comparing Cole’s 2015 to his 2017 has its limits, but can still provide insight into the evolving tendencies of the potential Yankee.

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The most noticeable difference in Cole’s results revolve around how often he relinquished home runs. His home-run-to-fly-ball rate jumped from 6.5 percent in 2015 to 17 percent in 2017. While this issue emerged regardless of the opposing hitter’s handedness, left-handed hitters were homering at an absurd 1.7 times per nine innings come the end of last season. Considering Cole’s ability to neutralize lefties and righties at relatively even rates in 2015, this deviation from 2015 makes me wonder what changed.

I started, as I often do, with what the pitcher altered in his repertoire.

The former UCLA Bruin became less of a fastball-dominant pitcher. While Cole’s sinker usage stayed steady versus lefties and righties, his four-seamer ticked down about seven percent across the board. How he reallocated his pitch selection is particularly interesting.

Instead of pushing towards his dominant offspeed pitch that catalyzed his hype in 2015, Cole’s slider, the righty embraced his changeup, further bolstering an already deep repertoire. While this alteration started during 2016, the pitch drew nearly even in overall usage against left-handed hitters with Cole’s slider – something I doubt many would have predicted after his dominance with his slider in 2015.

Logically, one might be tempted tie together these two points…

A: Cole was ineffective to left-handed hitters.

B: Cole’s changeup became a featured offspeed pitch to left-handed hitters.

C: Thus, Cole’s changeup was a reason he became ineffective to left-handed hitters

Ahh, If only it was that easy.

The funny thing about Cole was his changeup became his most effective pitch in 2017, trumping his slider when looking at Fangraphs “pitch info pitch values.” A pitch that was Cole’s worst offering in 2015 per this metric, became his best in 2017 relative to his other four pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider, curve).

Cole acknowledge the elevated use of his changeup as well. Noting in this MLB.com report that he wanted to feature the pitch more in 2016, but injuries bogged his feel for the pitch down; 2017 emerged as the opportune time to execute this plan.

While MLB.com leads off in that linked report by saying Cole didn’t alter his changeup, but rather gained a better feel for it, I submit that getting a better feel for a changeup is effectively altering the pitch. Some say that the only way to improve your changeup is to increase its usage and dedicate yourself to getting a better feel for the pitch. It seems basic, yet the science of changeups is an enigma. Harry Pavlidis, however, has taken a stab at uncovering the mystery. (I detailed some thoughts in another one of my recent columns about the Brewers’ lefty Josh Hader.)

Brooksbaseball pitch movement numbers seem to agree.

Comparing Cole’s changeup to its 2015 version, the pitch’s horizontal movement increased. For right-handed pitchers implies more run inside to right-handed bats, increased by nearly one inch. While that minor change is not likely a major component of the increased effectiveness, it shows that the pitch changed its tendency ever so slightly, which I venture a guess has to do with this elusive “feel” for the offering.

On top of that, consider Cole’s nearly pristine location of the pitch to left-handed hitters.

Yet this deliberation doesn’t present a reason for the collapse of Cole’s ability to keep the ball in the park and neutralize, even marginally, left-handed hitters. It merely presents backing that the effectiveness of Cole’s changeup might be here to stay.

Another attempt I took to discover the reasons behind Cole’s emergent platoon issues deals with the use, movement, and location of Cole’s fastball, which became the main pitch attributed to the home run barrage against Cole in 2017. While pitch use and movement presented no proprietary insights, before even looking at Cole’s four-seamer location, I took a guess that he elevated the pitch more to both handedness of hitters, or became inconsistent with his location of the pitch.

My latter thought holds some merit.

The larger, dark-brown area represents Cole’s 2017 four-seamer location, while the pinpoint concentration just off the center of the plate in the subsequent picture is Cole’s 2015 four-seamer location. The larger blot of brown shows, to some extent, that Cole didn’t locate as consistently, possibly making this pitch less effective, which we can confirm, and playing at least some role in his home run spike, which is harder to confirm.

This could be another “feel” issue, as Cole moves towards becoming an offspeed-dominant pitcher, but with BP’s grading of Cole’s four-seamer at 70 with a future of 75 back in 2015, I remain skeptical that the pitch deteriorated that much after once being touted so highly, even after only two seasons.

While another 1,000 words could easily be scribed regarding Cole’s various usage decisions between 2015 and 2017, and with that might come a clearer answer for his struggles. Often the process of trying to discover a culprit regarding an issue can provide some insight; I often enjoy the journey as much as the result.

This journey makes me interested to see if Cole alters his usage again to either handedness of hitter in 2018. He could call back to the shape of his 2015 slider, which if combined with his present-state changeup would make me a proponent of acquiring Cole for a high price. Or Cole could continue to tend towards off-speed dominant and never regain the effectiveness his fastball possessed in 2015. Or it could be a mixture of both, with a balance reached that produces an in-between result. A mixture of Cole’s dominant 2015 and less-dominant, but still effective 2017, could still produce north of 3 WAR.

My interest for Cole will come in 2018 whether or not he dons pinstripes for 2018.

Statistics via Baseball Prospectus (DRA, general stats), BrooksBaseball (Pitch usage), and Baseball Savant (Location, GIF data). 

Photo Credit: Brad Mills / USA TODAY Sports

However, Brian Cashman has a (good) problem: he doesn’t need the deepest farm system in baseball. The Yankees roster is loaded with top, young talent under team control for some time. The team is already running into a bad 40-man roster situation, which will get worse. For example, I’ve hypothesized on the podcast that the reason Chance Adams wasn’t called up to the majors last summer was that the Yankees didn’t need to protect him in this year’s Rule V draft. The Yankee bullpen is so stacked that guys like Domingo German an Ben Heller were mostly wasted at Triple-A last year, despite excellent performances. Baseball has structured its roster system to put a cap on the number of good advanced players an organization can hold on to. And on top of it all, the Yankees have the money to acquire top talent in free agency if their farm system fails to produce at a position.

The solution to Cashman’s problem? Trade your excess capacity. He can swing trades while still holding on to Gleyber Torres, Estevan Florial, and all of our recent call-ups. Right away, the Yankees could use upgrades at starting pitcher (versus CC Sabathia), designated hitter, backup catcher, and left-handed relief. Even if the Yankees take a loss in an absolute sense on some of these trades (buying at more than the market price), the Yankees have the excess capacity to still end up better off.

And here’s the beautiful thing: the Yankees are more constrained by money right now than they are by trading chips. Pre-free agency players acquired by trade are cheaper than worse free agents purchased on the free market. Any money saved frees up further excess capacity to fill other holes in free agency. Put differently, trading away a bunch of prospects to acquire a cheap DH and starting pitcher makes it more likely the Yankees can sign Manny Machado.

So get trading, Cashman!

This season has been one of riches for fans of the Yankees. The 3 1/2 games the club sits behind the Red Sox in the AL East heading into the All-Star break don’t do the first 96 games justice. Expectations were low coming out of spring training; another year into a soft rebuild was apt terminology for initial feelings. All that wishy-washy confidence for the future was quickly squashed in favor of the “now” after a 15-8 start to the season and numerous days atop the division. Propelled by the unlikeliest of heroes, there has been more than enough reason to watch Yankees baseball, especially with the injection of endless youth. With the debuts of Miguel Andujar, Dustin Fowler, Tyler Wade, Kyle Higashioka, Tyler Webb, and most recently Clint Frazier, one would think there is minimal talent left in their minor league system. For once, it’s a great to be sorely mistaken.

Jeff Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff released their mid-season top 50 list on Thursday, and three notable Yankees made the cut.

Gleyber Torres – (#7, #15 preseason)

I’ve written about Gleyber three times (1, 2, 3) in hopes of the trifecta of columns upon Torres’ MLB debut, but the best laid plans often go ary. A torn UCL in his non-throwing arm has sidelined the Yankees’ top prospect for the rest of 2017, meaning New York won’t see Torres in a third jersey this season, or watch him showcase his talents at the 2017 Futures Game (more on that event later). What we do know is that Torres has shown a refined approach at each level, resulting in appealing slash lines and projectability greater than any prospect we’ve seen debut in pinstripes in some time. The only real bug in his game is speculation on whether the raw power he has shown, can at some point turn itself into realized game power. If it doesn’t, we’re still looking at a viable second or third base option, but not with the caliber of upside shown by others prospects inside the top 15. Keep in mind, he was a 20 year old at AAA before the injury, and that speaks volumes for just how much to take this premature criticism with a grain of salt.

If second base is Torres’ position, he’ll feature one of the more advanced approaches up the middle from square one, with Starlin Castro’s $10 and $11 million owed in 2018 and 2019 respectively, the only barriers to eclipse. If third base – my personal guess for his early-career reps – becomes home, Chase Headley would likely be the odd man out and that doesn’t seem like it will be hard news to break to fans. Torres arrival in New York will be the most anticipated of any prospect the Yankees have stashed away in the recent years. More hyped than the debuts of Judge and Sanchez is correct.

Chance Adams – (#37, not ranked preseason)

Unlike Torres, there is an opportunity for Chance Adams to reach the Bronx this season. While the knocks on his game are height and the lack of number one starter upside, ceilings aren’t the only factor considered on a prospect lists. A mid 90s fastball, combined with an advanced, low 80s slider are his go-to offerings, while he mixes in a good changeup and a fringe curveball. Eric Longenhagen mentions that Adams’ command has been suppressed through his career due to his release point leaning on the side of inconsistent. Backed up by the similar 9-11% walk rates between levels during the second half of 2016 and early into 2017, success stories like Marcus Stroman always come to mind if you desire reasons for even more optimism. The inconsistent release point remains one minor reason why Longenhagen is concerned that Adams never finds the command to be a more than his floor indicates, but there is still so much to like with the 22 year old.

This feels like a rank based on floor to possibly even out some riskier picks by the BP Prospect Staff, but one I can’t criticize in the slightest. Adams sits ahead of higher-profile arms like the Cardinals’ Sandy Alcantara and Red Sox’s Jason Groome, and just behind a player whom I’ve personally grown fond of in the Indians’ organization, Triston McKenzie (32.4% strikeout rate, 2.91 ERA in 90 High-A innings). With the risk embedded in starting pitchers across the board, Adams’ 2.50 ERA across 55+ AAA innings and little worry about health are great signs, and likely the reasons why he has vaulted into the top 40 prospects on BP’s list.

Justus Sheffield – (#47, #52 preseason)

Most notable is the leap Adams made over Sheffield to the number one pitching prospect in the organization. The move was warranted after seeing the results this lefty had at AA Trenton compared to Adams, and gaining the knowledge that Sheffield has yet to find his way to Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Although his 3.09 ERA looks near pristine, the present concern is the career-low strikeout rate of 20.2%. He’s also shorter than Adams – who as we now know gets knocked for his height – and tinkered with his repertoire early this season, which could make assuming too much off his early 2017 stats a big error in the aggregate.

I like the fact Sheffield’s stock hasn’t taken a hit due to the results not resembling that of Adams. One way of looking at it is that hope for Adams increased while Sheffield’s stayed the same. That alone bodes well for the confidence surrounding his makeup, and before we know it, this southpaw might be replacing Adams at AAA due to the higher-ranked prospects promotion. Sheffield’s promotion won’t be far off afterwards.

Note: Sheffield was placed on the Minor League DL Wednesday, July 7th, with an oblique strain.

2017 Futures Game 

The Yankees had two representatives in the kick-off event of All-Star weekend: Pitcher Domingo Acevedo and outfielder Estevan Florial. The most interesting perk for a baseball nerd like myself? MLB’s Facebook page live streaming batting practice for each of teams. That’s where I got my first look at Florial in a resolution that wasn’t home video quality, and even though the common “five tools” tag on another farmhand becomes redundant, it’s tough to nix the assessment.

The first thing I noticed was the natural uppercut in Florial’s swing, similar aesthetically, but less exaggerated than the bat path of Freddie Freeman. It’s a swing that will lead to a decent amount of swing and miss, but also a lot of game power. Both were confirmed after observing the 30% strikeout rate and .502 slugging percentage he has through 74 games in A ball. In the game itself, the 19-year-old slotted in for two at bats, both against southpaws. He struck out against the Royals’ Foster Griffin and walked against the Athletics’ touted draft steal A.J. Puk. Each at bats gave us six pitches to look at, and from MLB.com’s pitch tracker, only three of the 12 were actually in the zone. Griffin elevated everything to Florial, while Puk buried everything away. Florial handled Griffin’s breaking pitches well, but whiffed on a great slider from Puk. Tough to infer much from the at bats themselves with such little exposure, but anytime a 19-year-old fits in with the caliber of young talent in this game, it’s a great sign.

Acevedo on the other hand faired much worse after allowing three runs on four hits and failing to showcase the power fastball he leverages from his 6’7″, 250 pound frame. The big righty has struggled since his promotion to AAA this season, after mowing through Trenton with ease. Only 12.1 innings into his final step before the Bronx, higher-level competition seems to have faired well off him, but as the the New York post highlighted after the game, Acevedo acknowledged the lapse and wants to learn from the experience. Compared to the youth in the Futures Game and in the Yankees’ system, Acevedo can be considered a veteran at 23 years old, and his wisdom may help to overcome any struggles sooner than later.

Some of this column’s details were reiterated from BP’s top 50 mid-season prospects list that I’ve linked to within, and will do so again here. Massive thanks to Jeff Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff for their hard work and expertise.