The Yankees are on a certifiable hot streak. 15 of the last 16 games have ended with John Sterling belting out, “THEEEEEEE YANKEES WIN!” They’ve have gotten fantastic pitching from young stars (Luis Severino), old vets (CC Sabathia), and rookies (Domingo German, wow!). There’s been clutch hitting from nearly everyone in the lineup, with a new hero leading the team to victory each day.

There have been a few blowouts, such as the 14-1 obliteration of Minnesota on April 23, and the 11-1 bludgeoning in Anaheim on April 28. But the hallmark of the Yankees’ unbelievable run has been late-inning drama. Incredibly, 6 of the 15 wins featured the go-ahead run in the ninth inning or later. It’s almost too many fairy tale endings to keep track of. Here is a recap of the 5 biggest hits of the hot streak by WPA.

5) May 6: Neil Walker RBI Double, 36% WPA

The aforementioned walk-off bomb from #GleyberGood wasn’t the biggest hit of the game. In fact, it wasn’t even the biggest hit of the inning! Trailing 4-3 entering the bottom of the ninth, Aaron Hicks starting things off with a double. Neil Walker followed with another line drive double to right field, tying the score. Walker’s hit was worth 36% WPA, increasing the Yankee odds of winning from 46% to 82%. After a groundout by Miguel Andujar and an intentional walk to Giancarlo Stanton, Torres increased the win expectancy from 71% to 100% with his moonshot to right-center.

4) May 4: Miguel Andujar Game-Winning Single, 36% WPA

The opening match of the Cleveland series was an emotional whirlwind. The Yankee bullpen blew a 5-0 lead in the top of the 8th inning, thanks to a three-run smash by Bradley Zimmer. In the bottom of the frame, the Yankees regained the lead with a two-out, bases loaded walk by Aaron Judge. However, Aroldis Chapman failed to shut the door, yielding a single to Yan Gomes, a HBP, and two wild pitches. With the score tied at 6 in the bottom of the ninth, Stanton led off with a double. Gary Sanchez flew out to right field and Hicks grounded out to the right side, advancing Stanton to third. Walker walked (which is a fun phrase to type), then took second on defensive indifference. That brought up Andujar, who slapped one into right field on a 1-2 count, scoring Stanton to win the game. The base hit was worth 36% WPA, but perhaps it should be penalized because Didi Gregorius was kicked in the head during the celebration. With all these dramatic wins, you’d think the team would know how to celebrate more safely.

3) April 27: Didi Gregorius 10th Inning Home Run, 38% WPA

In the first game of the road trip, the Yankees trailed the Angels 3-2 in the 9th inning. Brett Gardner hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game with the bases loaded and one out. David Robertson pitched a flawless bottom of the ninth, sending the game to extra innings. With one out in the 10th, Gregorius did this:

The blast increased the Yankees’ chances of winning from 44% to 82%. Chapman nailed down the victory in the bottom of the inning, 4-3 Yankees.

2) May 3: Gleyber Torres Two-Run Single, 39% WPA

Gleyber does make the cut after all! Astros closer Ken Giles was out of commission after getting blown up the day before (and perhaps nursing a bruised jaw), so Will Harris took on the Yankees in the top of the ninth with a 5-3 lead. He surrendered a walk to Walker (there it is again!) and singles to Andujar and Hicks to load the bases with no outs. Brad Peacock came in to face Torres, who lined a single to left to tie the game. Two batters later, Hicks scored on a groundout to give the Yankees the lead, which Chapman preserved for a victory. The Torres single was the big play, of course, improving the Yankees’ win expectancy from 42% to 81%.

1) April 26: UNLEASH THE KRAKEN, 66% WPA

When Sanchez stepped to bat in the bottom of the ninth, the Yankees had just a 34% chance of beating the Twins. They were trailing 3-1 with two men on base and no outs. His blast traveled 381 feet and miraculously stayed inside the foul pole. Everybody goes home, 4-3 Yankees. A WPA event of 30% or higher is rare. A 66% WPA event can almost exclusively be a come-from-behind, walk-off winner like Gary’s. Much like the Yankees’ entire hot streak, it should be savored and remembered.

Photo Credit: Adam Hunger / USA TODAY Sports

Even the most fanatical supporters of Sir Didi could never predict his incredible power surge this season. When he was acquired from Arizona before the 2015 season, he had only 13 career home runs in 183 games. During his first three years in The Bronx, he blasted 9, 20, and 25 long balls, setting a new Yankee record for home runs by a shortstop in a season.

Now, he looks like he might break that record before the All-Star Break. In fact, with 10 in 25 games, he’s on pace to finish 2018 with 65 home runs! That is a clearly unsustainable rate, but it makes for some fun projections while it lasts.

If he should actually finish the year with 65 bombs (he won’t), his average increase would be 18.6 home runs per season with the Yankees. If he continues that even more unsustainable rate of growth, here’s what the rest of his career will look like:

Let’s unpack this a little bit:

• In September, 2019, Gregorius will break Barry Bonds’ single season home run record of 73. He’ll hit his 74th in the 145th game of the season.
• Derek Jeter holds the Yankees record for 260 career home runs by a shortstop. Didi will break that record in the 92nd game of the 2020 season, which should be shortly after the All-Star Break in July.
• Gregorius will more than double Bonds’ old, long forgotten single-season home run record in 2023.
• A couple of special things will happen in 2024, his age 34 season. Gregorius will become the first player in history to average more than one home run per game. He will also surpass Bonds’ career record with his 763rd home run in the 25th game of the season.

None of this will actually happen, of course. Didi will slow down at some point. But until he does, let’s enjoy the power show while it lasts.

Since joining the Yankees, Didi has had the reputation of being an aggressive and high contact hitter. He maintained respectable batting averages but low on-base percentages, and until he added power, he was a below average performer at the dish. His home run surge helped Gregorius become an above average hitter, which was a huge step in his development. Now, Gregorius is taking perhaps an even greater step by adding plate discipline. Maybe the power wasn’t a total shock given the ability for lefties to take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short porch, but his newfound discerning eye has come out of nowhere.

Since joining the Yankees, the shortstop’s swing percentage has increased every year: from 51.5 percent in 2015, to 55.4 percent in 2016, and to 58.2 percent last year. Gregorius has ended that trend in 2018, offering at only 45.9 percent of pitches he’s seen to date. This patience has led to Gregorius drawing 15 walks already after he walked only 25 times all of last season. He’s rarely chasing pitches out of the zone (29.4 percent, down from 40.8 percent last year) and is not as jumpy for pitches in the zone (70.4 percent, down from 81.3 percent last year). This doesn’t seem like a coincidence or early season small sample size: Aaron Boone has pushed for Gregorius to be more patient at the plate.

This change in approach makes plenty of sense. After all, since Didi has never struggled to put the bat on the ball, why not be more patient? He can wait for his proverbial pitch to hit, and if he doesn’t get it, then he can use his contact skills to at least put the ball in play or draw a walk. Is his 15.8 percent walk rate sustainable? Almost certainly not, but his new tact at the plate apparently is here to stay, and for the better.

Oh, and that power he’s discovered over the past couple of seasons? That seems here to stay too. He leads the team with eight home runs and appears destined to beat his career-high of 25 that he set last season. This doesn’t seem to be a fluke, either, as Gregorius is stinging the ball. Compared to last year, Gregorius’s average exit velocity is up nearly three miles per hour and his fly ball percentage up almost seven percentage points. He’s sporting an xwOBA of .410 to boot, so his performance has been earned.

Per wRC+, Gregorius has been the sport’s best hitter thus far. Better than Manny Machado, Aaron Judge, and Mookie Betts among others. That’s pretty good company. Will Gregorius regress as the season plays out? Of course. However, he’s improved once again and has established himself and as one of the top hitters at his position. For a guy who was supposed to be a glove-first shortstop, he’s now looking like an all-around star. Adding discipline was the next logical step in Didi’s development with the bat, but of course, doing so is easier said than done. Yet, like how Didi has wowed us with improvements in recent seasons, he’s made it look like a sinch once again.

We already know that the Yankees lineup is great and is going to score plenty of runs this season. Over the course of the 162 game schedule, how the lineup is deployed won’t make a significantly affect the number of runs the offense produces. Does that mean rookie manager Aaron Boone should just pick names out of a hat, Joe Maddon style, and run with it? Of course not. To date, Boone has run out a sensible lineup that has already shown its potency. Yet, if I may, I want to nitpick how he’s ordered the middle of the lineup thus far (Derek, you’re really about to step in it. Are you sure you want to keep going?).

Boone has batted Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, and Gary Sanchez in slots two through five in all games except opening day (vs. a lefty) and Sunday (Sanchez had the day off). It’s evident that the rookie manager’s plan is to split up the three right-handed sluggers with one lefty, whether it’s Gregorius or Greg Bird upon the latter’s return. It’s not some egregious mistake that Boone should be vilified for, because after all, Gregorius is a pretty good hitter in his own right. Yet, it’s not the optimal two through five (Oh boy).

On Saturday, Sanchez was left in the batters’ box twice as Gregorius failed to deliver with runners in scoring position and two outs. In the first inning, Gregorius grounded out following a two-out double by Stanton. The Yankees were down 1-0 at the time. Later, in the eighth with the game tied at 3, Gregorius came to the plate with Stanton on first and two outs. He popped out on the first pitch he saw. In both of those instances, Sanchez should have been the hitter. Instead, he was left watching. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that Sanchez would have come through in those spots, but there’s no question he’s a superior hitter to Gregorius. And of course, Didi is going to come through in those situations at times this year (hey, dumb writer of this post, look what Didi did yesterday!). It just so happens that he didn’t on Saturday, which made the lineup order issue stand out. None of this should be construed as a knock on Didi! He’s developed into a very good hitter himself, but he’s not on the same level as Sanchez.

I also think that batting Gregorius behind Stanton is going to cost Stanton a lot of pitches to hit. Sunday’s game is a great example of this even though Sanchez wasn’t in the lineup. Toronto’s pitchers walked Stanton three times and passed the baton to Gregorius. On days that Sanchez is starting, that can still happen with Gregorius hitting cleanup. Think about it this way: with Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez all in a row, it’s next to impossible to pitch around any of them. Do that to Judge or Stanton, and you have Sanchez looming. The only way you can really pitch around Sanchez is if you manage to retire Judge and/or Stanton before him, which is no easy task.

The Book says that the difference between a standard lineup and an optimal lineup can be up to 15 runs in a season. Frankly, the Yankees lineup is already pretty close to optimal per The Book‘s standards for many reasons, particularly because Judge hits second. So, the difference between Sanchez and Gregorius flipping lineup slots is a nowhere near that 15 run differential. At most, it might be a handful of runs over the season, which falls short of equating to an extra win. Nonetheless, it’s frustrating to see Sanchez lose opportunities with men on base.

Given what we know about the full season implications of a batting order, perhaps I’m making too much of where Sanchez and Gregorius fit in the lineup (yes, you are you dunce). I’m well aware that this offense is going to be near the top of the league, if not at the top, in runs scored regardless of where Boone stacks the bats. Still, I want more. I want to see opposing pitchers have to face Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez in order. There’s no need to give them a “break”, even though this “break” involves a very good hitter. For the time being, it appears that Boone is steadfast with his current lineup construction. It shouldn’t be too harmful, but there will still be room for improvement as long as he stays the course.

Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

While this sent me down a rabbit hole of disgusting hematoma pictures and how to treat them — apparently cabbage and mustard can actually help — the more important matter at hand is who we’ll see donning pinstripes in place of Gregorius for the month of April.

I’ll break the other bad news right now.

The rational replacements for Gregorius aren’t nearly as exciting as the grand prize in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Torres has earned scouts’ attention, not only because of his Arizona Fall League MVP trophy, but because of his success and poise at 19 years old. Backing up the critical acclaim with a .464 average and 1.448 OPS over 28 at bats this spring, Torres seems ready to slot in at short if the Yankees want to blow up headlines and fantasy baseball drafts this close to the start of the season. The bat control he showed on his first homer of spring, going the other way on a 3-2 fastball off the plate was one of the things that impressed myself and others the most.

If this decision was that easy, Torres jerseys would be already be sold out.

For one, I don’t even see the top prospect staying at shortstop long term, and others agree. A move to third base or second seems most likely as he solidifies his approach at the plate. As the skeptical chatter about how his range will play at the major league level bubbles into our conscious, it only validates this point.

There is the also the inevitable ‘prospect control’ matter, which has caused some of the most able bodied prospects to stick around the minors — Kris Bryant always comes to mind — a few days longer to promote long term visions of workability in free agent budgets. This discussion of ‘super two’ players deserves a thousand words on its own, but the details are less interesting than an accounting textbook, so I’ll do my part to retain some BP Bronx readers and punt the topic to other sites. As much as the Yankees may stress Torres’ development, the money involved is a clear matter of importance as well.

In the wake of all this speculation, Torres was just reassigned to Double-A Trenton, which will soon put to sleep the already tired critique that the Yankees’ number one prospect doesn’t have any at bats above High-A. We should see Torres in the Bronx this year, at the earliest sometime in June, but there is an equal chance a September call-up is the more accurate prediction.

The Trenton Thunder open their season on Thursday, April 6, against the Erie Seawolves (Detroit Tigers Double-A affiliate).

Replacements

All short-term in my eyes. The Gregorius injury is enough to promote some caution and his removal from the World Baseball Classic, but not discouraging enough to expect a completely lost 2017 season.

PECOTA pegged Didi for just under a 2 win season, with a .259 average and 14 home runs at their 50th percentile outcome (reasonable expectation). While the 100th percentile (bold expectation) of a .290 season and another shot at 20 home runs may seem like a pipe dream, take away roughly 100 at bats from Gregorius, and we’re still in the realm of valuable production at a premium position.

Ronald Torreyes, Ruben Tejada and Pete Kozma are the players of note that should see uptick in consideration for at bats.

Torreyes, who comps well to a player out in San Francisco by the name of Joe Panik, graduates from utility defender to a candidate who should exceed his 99 total innings at shortstop in 2016 very quickly.

Tejada always finds himself in the right place at the right time. Last season he was picked up by the St. Louis Cardinals to fill the void created when Jhonny Peralta went down with a bad thumb. A good thing to remember about Tejada is that Mike Matheny, a relatively strict manager when it comes to liberal prospect use, only started favor the 2016 breakout Aledmys Diaz late in Spring, after a Tejada injury manifested just prior to opening day. While there may be some merit to Matheny’s want for Tejada in early 2016, I’m doubtful that the former Mets starter is anything but a deep bench bat at the major league level.

To make things worse, Tejada’s defense has seen some decline in the past few years. With limited reps at the major league level and mediocre results to show, the fountain of youth is the only remedy I see for the kindling of life in a player I thought was much older than 27 years old.

Kozma is the third and final candidate for playing time, and while I entertained the idea of excitement for Tyler Wade, a young middle infielder who scored 90 runs at Double-A Trenton last season, the short term impact this situation has makes me skeptical the Yankees start handing out starts to even less proven talents than Torres.

I may be one of the only ones who remembers Kozma’s clutch RBI in game five of the 2012 NLDS, and to say that was the apex of Kozma’s career isn’t a brash. Kozma had 450+ at bats in 2016 with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, batting only .209 with a slugging percentage below .300. If Kozma is anything but an afterthought in this situation, even with a glove that has shown promise at the major league level, I will be one surprised individual.

What we have in the mix for time at shortstop is the 2016 utility man Ronald Torreyes, flanked but two much less appealing options in Ruben Tejada and Pete Kozma. Torreyes’ performance last season and his flexibility around the diamond has earned him a chance to prosper with a small sample of regular playing time. I think depth is necessary, which is why Tejada and Kozma should be in the discussion, but the only player that can return value is Torreyes.

I’m eager to see the results of some trust extended to the 24 year old. It’s not Torres time quite yet, but it sure seems like Torreyes time.

Photos: Kim Klement, Jasen Vinlove/USA Today Sports

The Yankees decided that the right man for the job was Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Didi Gregorius. They acquired him in in a three-team deal, trading right-hander Shane Greene to the Tigers. At the time of the deal, Gregorius was a relatively unknown 24-year-old that had just been traded for the second time in his young career. He came with solid defensive abilities, but fans, among others, were skeptical that his bat would allow him to become the next everyday shortstop for the Yankees.

After a miserable first half in 2015, which saw Gregorius hit .238 in 81 games, Yankee fans had already given up on him and were reminiscing about the the days that Derek Jeter occupied shortstop.

But everything changed in July 2015. Maybe Gregorius struggled because he felt the pressure of replacing a legend. Maybe it was Gregorius making significant adjustments over the All-Star break. Whatever it was, Gregorius has been a completely different hitter at the plate since then.

In the second half of last season, Gregorius posted a .294 batting average with five home runs and 37 RBIs in 72 games. Gregorius’s run to end the season helped him finish fourth among American League shortstops with a 3.1 fWAR. He trailed only Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa. The question still remained: was his performance in the second half an aberration or was it a sign of things to come?

Gregorius has emphatically answered this question with a breakout 2016 campaign. He is slashing .289/.318/.468 this season, which would set a career high with the exception of his on-base percentage. He also has homered 15 times (already a career high) to go along with 52 RBIs (nearing a career high). He has been a top five shortstop in the AL, according to fWAR, over the past two seasons, but will the 26-year-old be able to sustain this success for years to come? Some might be skeptical, but the numbers say yes.

One notable adjustment that Gregorius has made over the past year is improving the percentage of balls hit to the opposite field to a career-best 28.9%, three percentage points above the league average. He’s also increased his line-drive rate each season he has been in the majors and his current 21.6% mark is nearly a full percentage point above the league average.

Gregorius has cut his swinging-strike rate to a career low 9.1% in 2016, which has helped increase his contact rate to yet another career high. And, although he does not walk nearly enough, his current 12.9 strikeout rate certainly helps make up for it.

One might assume that his increase in average this season is an anomaly. However, these improvements help explain why it’s sustainable. Even his batting average on balls in play, which is currently .302 on the season, is nearly identical to his 2015 mark and on-par with the league average.

Gregorius’s power looks legit, too. Although his HR/FB% has significantly increased to 12.1%, it’s still 0.7% lower than the league average. And even though Yankee Stadium can certainly help with the power numbers, too, he’s just the fifth Yankee shortstop in history to crack 15 homers in a season. The last to do this before Gregorius? Well, of course, it was Jeter.

Gregorius has worked hard to help Yankee fans move on from Jeter. And, although Jeter will never be forgotten, Gregorius has certainly made the transition a lot smoother than first imagined.

Photo: Noah K. Murray / USA Today Sports

January 23rd, 2012

Yankees Trade: Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi (-2.0 WAR since)
Mariners Trade: Jose Campos and Michael Pineda (4.5 WAR since)

What a way to start. Enough ink has been spilled on this trade, so I won’t t go overly in-depth on it. This one has been as lopsided as they come, which says a lot given that Michael Pineda has been a relative disappointment thus far. Jesus Montero moved out from behind catcher, and the ‘bat that will play anywhere’ only seems to truly play at Triple-A. There’s still hope for the 26-year old, but the chances of him becoming a major-league regular are slim. Noesi, 29, is the owner of a career 5.30 ERA, and that’s all that needs to be said about him.

Once a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation upside, Jose Campos is just hoping to make the big leagues. It’s not all his fault, as a rash of injuries have crushed his value, but as is the case with Montero it’s tough to predict big league success for him. Luckily, Michael Pineda saves this deal.

Pineda, who recently turned 27, had a rough start with the Yankees. Despite a successful rookie year for the Mariners in 2011, it took him until 2014 to get back to the big leagues due to injuries. With those ailments behind him, Pineda has looked like a No. 3 or No. 4 starter with a ceiling near the top of the rotation. Last year’s 4.37 ERA was a disappointment, but his 3.34 FIP and flashes of elite stuff give the Yankees hope for a big 2016. At the very least, he’s a young and controllable starter with big upside that many teams would love to have—and the Yankees got him for two players that have combined for -2.0 WAR.

February 19th, 2012

Yankees Trade: A.J. Burnett and cash (6.8 WAR since)
Pirates Trade: Exicardo Cayones and Diego Moreno (0 WAR since)

Ah, the start of the Yankees vast trade history with the Pirates. On paper, this one looks pretty ugly, but the context of the deal needs to be understood.

This trade was made to get rid of $13M of Burnett’s remaining $33M left on his contract. The fact that this deal got done alone is impressive, given that nobody wanted the pricey player who had a 4.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in New York.

That said, this trade is one of Cashman’s weaker ones; Cayones and Moreno haven’t really panned out while Burnett flourished in Pittsburgh. That being said, the Yankees didn’t need to have the two prospects turn into contributors to be satisfied with the deal. Neither were ever looked at as legitimate prospects, and for the most part nothing has changed. Moreno’s actually done well in the Yankees’ system considering his past, and last year’s 2.18 ERA at Triple-A in the bullpen last year suggests that the 28-year old Moreno could see some innings in the Yankees ‘pen next year. This isn’t a trade to be proud of, but it’s also not one that the Cashman and the Yankees lost out on.

July 23rd, 2012

Yankees Trade: Danny Farquhar and D.J. Mitchell (0.4 WAR since)
Mariners Trade: Ichiro Suzuki (1.6 WAR since)

It’s not worth spending much time on this one, given the uninspiring results on both sides. Ichiro did about what the Yankees expected, and they were able to squeeze a year and a half of below average starter/great fourth outfielder production out of him. Mitchell hasn’t reached the big leagues since, and Farquhar’s had one very good season and two terrible ones. At this time last year, it may have looked like the Yankees blew it given Farquhar’s 2.66 ERA in 2014. But his 2015 ERA of 5.12 makes the Yankees’ rental of the then 38-year old Ichiro look solid.

July 26th, 2013

Yankees Trade: Corey Black (0 WAR since)
Cubs Trade: Alfonso Soriano (0.2 WAR since)

In the grand scheme of things, this trade wasn’t anything special. But, most Yankees fans will remember it because of four games in August where Alfonso Soriano went on one of the greatest hot streaks ever. He became the first player in baseball history with 12 hits and 18 RBIs in four games and those four games justified giving up Corey Black, who had the looks of a solid pitching prospect. Black is now a reliever and although he can miss bats, it doesn’t seem that he’ll be a player the Yankees will miss. Soriano provided a huge boost for the Yankees down the stretch, and while a dreadful -1.4 WAR in 2014 may have erased some of that initial impact, the move was still a great one for New York.

July 6th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Vidal Nuno (0.8 WAR since)
Diamondbacks Trade: Brandon McCarthy (1.3 WAR since)

In one of Brian Cashman’s most shrewd moves in recent years, the Yankees were able to ship off a player who was pitching in the independent leagues a couple seasons prior to his acquisition for McCarthy, who was arguably the Yankees’ best pitcher down the stretch. Things didn’t work out according to plan in the long run — the Yankees missed the playoffs and McCarthy didn’t re-sign — but, turning Nuno (likely a long reliever) into 90.1 innings of a 2.89 ERA from Brandon McCarthy was a brilliant move by Brian Cashman.

July 22nd, 2014

Yankees Trade: Rafael De Paula and Yangervis Solarte (2.6 WAR since)
Padres Trade: Chase Headley (3.2 WAR since)

This is one of the few trades that I’m not a fan of. A fan favorite, Solarte has surprisingly been productive as a member of the Padres. He was worth 2.2 WAR in 2015, exactly twice as much as Chase Headley was. In addition, Solarte is just 28, under team control through 2020, and dirt cheap until 2017. De Paula was, at one time, a promising pitching prospect. But his 5.01 ERA in 2015 (mostly out of the bullpen) means that the Yankees probably aren’t lamenting over his departure.

Still, this didn’t work out for the Yankees the way many expected. While Headley was very solid for the remainder of 2014 and re-signed with the team, he drastically under-performed last season and it’s hard to imagine a full recovery. On the other end of the spectrum, Solarte surprised many with his performance and a repeat in 2016 isn’t all that unlikely. This trade could still turn in the Yankees’ favor, but it’s probably the weakest of Girardi’s in years.

July 31st, 2014

Yankees Trade: Kelly Johnson (0.1 WAR since)
Red Sox Trade: Stephen Drew (-0.2 WAR since)

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha nope.

July 31st, 2014

Yankees Trade: Peter O’Brien (0.2 WAR since)
Diamondbacks Trade: Martin Prado (5.2 WAR since)

Yankee fans were initially up in arms about this trade, as shiny new toys that can play catcher and hit baseballs far are coveted in New York. Alas, O’Brien’s gone the way of Jesus. Like Montero, he has seen his strikeouts pile up and he’s now left without a position. The 25-year who combined for 71 home runs in 213 games over the past two seasons isn’t much of a prospect anymore due to his lack of position. O’Brien’s big power could still have a place on a big-league roster, but he probably isn’t a starter.

The return for the Yankees, Martin Prado, only spent 37 games with the team. Still, he accrued an impressive 2.1 WAR and hit .316 while in the Bronx. An appendectomy and subsequent trade sent him to Miami, but his return, Nathan Eovaldi, is just as important as Prado’s short 2014 campaign with the Yankees. Once again, it appears that Cashman has won handily, and maybe one day teams will learn not to acquire fringe-catching prospects from the Yankees.

November 12th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Francisco Cervelli (3.1 WAR since)
Pirates Trade: Justin Wilson (1.4 WAR since)

The next installment of the Yankees-Pirates trade saga was one of Cashman’s few poor moves. The trade is understandable, given the Yankees’ lack of space for Cervelli and their organizational depth at catcher. Still, Cervelli had a great year in Pittsburgh, hitting .295 and showing off his elite framing skills. Wilson was very good, with a 3.10 ERA and 9.7 K/9, but a good catcher is much more valuable than a good reliever. It’s only been a year and the Yankees weren’t ripped off, but it wasn’t one of Cashman’s finest works.

December 5th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Shane Greene (-1.8 WAR since)
Diamondbacks Trade: Didi Gregorious (3.3 WAR since)

What an experience this trade was! It’s probably best to cover this in a couple of diary entries from Yankees fans:

>December 5th, 2014: Dear Diary, the Yankees made a trade today. It was pretty fair—the Yankees filled a need at shortstop despite giving up a promising young pitcher. It’s not a steal, but a trade I can deal with. We’ll check back in a few months…

>April 23rd, 2015: DEATH IS NEAR. WE HAVE GIVEN UP ALL HOPE. SHANE GREENE HAS A 0.39 ERA IN THREE STARTS AND IS THE NEXT JUSTIN VERLANDER. DIDI GREGORIOUS IS BATTING .200 AND HAS A 33 wRC+. HE’S A BUTCHER ON THE FIELD AND IN THE BASE PATHS.

>October 1st, 2015: Cashman’s the best! We have the shortstop of the future in Didi Gregorious, who was worth 3.3 WAR last season. Even better, he had a .294 batting average and 109 wRC+ in the second half, so an improvement in 2016 isn’t out of the question. He’s also a great defender! We still miss Shane Greene, but we don’t miss his 6.88 ERA in Detroit. This trade was a downright steal!

This was not exaggerated in any way and all Yankee fans can attest to that.

December 19th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Martin Prado and David Phelps (3.3 WAR since)
Marlins Trade: Garrett Jones, Nathan Eovaldi, and Domingo German (1.2 WAR since)

Based on WAR totals alone, it might seem silly of me to proclaim this as another Cashman success, but upon a careful look it’s a great move for the Yankees. Martin Prado is still a solid infielder and a player that every team would love to have thanks to his flexibility. David Phelps is, well, David Phelps. He had a 4.50 ERA last season in 19 starts and as boring as Phelps is, he’ll find ways to remain on the big league roster.

One reason why the Yankees’ return WAR is so low is due to Garrett Jones’ -0.6 mark in New York. Many thought his swing and power would fit nicely in Yankee stadium, but after just five home runs and a .215 batting average in 57 games, Jones was designated for assignment. He can be effectively scratched off this deal. Domingo German was a very solid pitching, but Tommy John surgery in Spring Training leaves his status up in the air. He could end up starting, but now it looks like German is more likely a reliever. That said, it wouldn’t be shocking to see German out-perform David Phelps if his stuff is back following the surgery.

Finally, we get the big name of this deal: Nathan Eovaldi. ‘Evo’ had an up-and-down 2015 for the Yankees, struggling out of the gate but showing promise in the second half before falling to elbow inflammation in September. At his best, Eovaldi has the upside of an ace. His big time velocity and nasty splitter could make Eovaldi a special player. The Yankees will have to hope that his elbow holds up, but this trade looks like another great one for New York.

January 1st, 2015

Yankees Trade: Manny Banuelos (-0.2 WAR since)
Braves: David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve (1.3 WAR since)

Just like the Didi Gregorious trade, this deal was quite the emotional rollercoaster. It certainly hurt fans to lose the previously beloved Banuelos, who was only a couple years and a Tommy John surgery removed from being a top pitching prospect. Things were looking up for Banuelos to start last season, as he was finally healthy and had a 2.23 ERA in Triple-A. Injuries struck again, though, and his 5.13 ERA in the majors hasn’t been very encouraging.

Back in New York, David Carpenter was never able to find success. After struggling through just 18.2 innings of 4.82 ERA ball, he was designated for assignment. Chasen Shreve saved this trade for the Yankees, with a 3.09 ERA last season in 58.1 innings. Shreve was hugely valuable to the team in the first half of the season, with a 2.02 ERA. He hit a wall in the latter part of the season, though, and had a 4.76 ERA after the All-Star Break. It depends on which pitcher shows up in 2016, but there’s optimism that Shreve can once again be an above-average relief pitcher for the team. Banuelos has some control over how this deal ends up looking, and there’s still hope that the 24-year-old can stay healthy and be a back-of-the-rotation starter. There’s plenty of baseball left to be played for these players, but it’s another solid trade by Cashman at the least.

Overall, it’s clear that Brian Cashman’s track record in trades is overwhelmingly successful. Among the significant moves detailed here, only one of them looks like a ‘bad deal’ and the others seem to be at the very worst ‘fair.’ There’s time for the winners of each trade to switch, but these moves are great evidence of Cashman’s elite trading abilities.

It’s important to be aware of Cashman’s success in this facet of running the Yankees, because it could very well be the only way the team stays afloat over the next couple of years. Given the lack of prosperous free agent classes until after the 2018 season and the Yankees’ newfound refusal to spend money, Cashman could be forced to rely on these deals to build up the roster. Shying away from free agents doesn’t sound fun, but based on Cashman’s past primarily focusing on trades may not be a bad strategy.

Lead photo: Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports

A year ago I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Ben’s assessment. In fact, last September as a second straight non-playoff season wound to its end, I wrote that the Yankees were “destined for a down period, the type every other team goes through every few years, and this time there’s not much they can do about it.”

But the Yankees defied my expectations and reached the playoffs in 2015 thanks to surprising contributions from some players — notably Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran — that I had assumed to be dead money.

Still, three months ago I still assumed a short rebuild period was on the way. The Yankees’ 87 wins in 2015 didn’t seem repeatable with the team’s core aging and its depth chart stuck with some hard-to-fill holes. Brian Cashman’s commitment to youth meant the Yankees’ wouldn’t sacrifice prospects to restock the current team, which meant they would stumble through the next three years making due with what they had.

Then, Cashman went out and traded for Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro and Aroldis Chapman and parted with only a backup catcher, middle reliever and four largely insignificant prospects. Suddenly the 2016 Yankees appear better on paper than last year’s team, and 85 wins looks like the floor for the upcoming season.

After all that’s happened in the last calendar year, from a surprise playoff berth to an impressive off-season, I’ve come to believe the Yankees can in fact have it all. Cashman is walking a tightrope, trying to contend while counting down the years until Teixeira, Rodrguez, Beltran and CC Sabathia come off the books and a crop of superstars becomes available. He’s not only kept from falling during this high-wire act, he seems to have kept himself impeccably balanced.

Despite his pessimistic view of the short-term future, Ben concedes the Yankees will probably compete for a playoff spot in 2016. This will be a team without stars, but thanks to Cashman, one without serious holes, especially if a mid-rotation starting pitcher arrives before Opening Day.

Let’s fast-forward to 2017. Teixeira and Beltran will be off the books, and Greg Bird and Aaron Judge will likely inherit playing time with their departures. The Yankees will likely still have to pay Chase Headley, Brian McCann, A-Rod and Jacoby Ellsbury more money than they’re worth, but a young position-player core will be in place, and by that time the Tanaka-Severino-Pineda-Eovaldi starting rotation will have hit its prime.

There’s little sense in predicting as far into the future as 2018, but it seems reasonable to assume much of the emerging group of 20-somethings will remain assembled, with other additions to prop them up. Cashman has shown in recent years an impressive ability to acquire real big-league value without sacrificing much of consequence. Eovaldi cost David Phelps. Didi Gregorius cost Shane Greene. Starlin Castro cost Adam Warren. No general manager wins every trade, but Cashman seems to be coming close. If there’s any executive in baseball I trust to make the kinds of incremental improvements that boost a team from 80 wins to 85, or from 85 to 90, it’s the guy running the Yankees.

Ben’s forecast for a Yankee decline rests on the idea that though the 2015 core was overpaid, it provided value that will likely dwindle over the next few years. And while this is true, it doesn’t take into account the group whose value will presumably increase between now and 2018. The progression of Gregorius, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Castro, Bird and Judge, plus any additions Cashman makes over the next few off-seasons, should counteract some of the graying and keep the Yankees above water. Like the 2013-15 Yankees, the 2016-18 squads will feature several high-mileage players trending downward. But unlike recent teams, these next few will also include a promising group of youngsters.

The Yankees are rebuilding, but so far they’ve managed to prepare for the future without totally sacrificing the past. It’s a tough act to pull off, but right now it appears to be working.

They likely won’t be great team at any point during the next three years, but the Yankees might very well be better from 2016-18 than they were from 2013-15. At the very least it remains quite possible they remain above .500 and in playoff contention each season until the 2018 cavalry comes to join the prospects and restore the Yankees to glory.

Lead photo: Noah K. Murray/USA Today Sports

It’s easy to make this kind of statement with confidence because he’s a professional baseball player who takes hundreds of at-bats per year. If he didn’t enjoy swinging a bat he probably would have sought out a different vocation.

However, the shortstop’s actions on the field demonstrate he gets a warmer, fuzzier feeling from gripping it and ripping it than most. His walk rate of 5.1 percent ranks 86th among the 110 hitters with at least 550 plate appearances this season. His swing rate of 52.1 percent ranks 18th. Joey Votto he is not.

By and large that’s OK, not everyone can be Votto and patience isn’t everything. Over the course of the 2015 season Gregorius was moderately successful at the plate, and as a glove-first shortstop that will do just fine. However, his aggressiveness is a noteworthy component of his offensive profile, arguably the most noteworthy one.

There is one place where this tendency to pry the bat from his shoulders is particular noticeable, which is when he finds himself in two-strike counts. This is not particularly unusual as having two strikes necessitates more swings to protect the plate. Watching a pitch go by can result in an instant out and no competitor likes to go out that way.

Gregorius in particular does not like to walk back to the dugout without giving it the old college try. The 25-year-old saw 594 two-strike pitches this year, the chart below from Baseball Savant shows what happened on those pitches:

When he’s got two strikes on him Gregorius swings 68.2 percent of the time. When he does take a pitch it is a ball 94.9 percent of the time. As a result over the course of the entire season he’s been called out on strikes only 10 times. Only five hitters with 550 plus plate appearances have fallen victim to the backwards “K” less.

So, if your goal was to freeze Gregorius, how would you go about it? Considering the sample we’re working with is literally 10 pitches the answer is “who knows the information we have tells us nothing”. If we go back to the duration of Gregorius’s career we see he has struck out looking 34 times, that’s a little better, but still rather silly.

For what it’s worth 27 of those pitches have been fastballs, cutters or sinkers, and most of them have been down, especially down and away.

Once again, this isn’t remotely predictive. We know that Gregorius almost never strikes out looking, so out of curiosity it’s interesting to know what that has looked like. However, a picture is only worth a thousand words, but a GIF is worth 3,843,972. This is the ideal pitch to freeze Gregorius:

It’s perfect because it’s a fastball on the black and the Yankees shortstop is just a human man. He would end up arguing this call with the umpire suggesting that taking this pitch was a conscious decision. For Didi Gregorius that kind of choice is a rare one.

After all, he loves to swing the bat.

(Photo: Brad Penner-USA Today Sports)

Not exactly. Below, we’ll look at all the pieces involved in the Gregorius trade and see how they’re faring in their new organizations.

Didi Gregorius

Gregorius has put together 1.4 WARP thus far, but that total doesn’t totally reflect the progress he’s made overall. His start to the season was so ghastly that his totals have been dragged down to hide just how good he’s been recently. In the second half, Gregorius has hit .341/.371/.462 while displaying more confidence in the field. A series of dazzling plays in the recently concluded three-game set put the cherry on top of his dramatic turnaround, and this is the first time in a while that Yankees fans have witnessed plus defense at shortstop in quite some time. He’s under contract through 2020 and is currently making the league minimum. He’s not a world-beater by any stretch of the imagination and his torrid hitting will likely regress, but Gregorius is a nice cheap asset for the Yankees to hang onto for years to come. It will be interesting to see how the organization reacts if Jorge Mateo starts beating the door down in 2017. Would they move one of the two to second base, or flip Didi? Time will tell.

Shane Greene

Oh boy. We all remember how fun it was when Shane Greene hit the big leagues last year. He pitched to a 3.78 ERA in 78.2 innings, and the peripheral stats all seemed to back up what he was doing. Greene had been a nearly completely unheralded prospect, and he had suddenly arrived and thrived at the highest level. He looked like a valuable cheap asset going forward. So when he was traded to Detroit in the Didi trade, it seemed like the Yankees were willingly creating even more question marks in their motley starting rotation. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, because Greene has been atrocious. A 2014 strikeout rate of 23.5 percent has morphed into a less-than-ideal 13.4 percent. His 6.88 ERA, brought on largely by a 1.55 WHIP, has earned him the title of staff ace of the Toledo Mud Hens. It’s possible that the new pitching instruction he’s receiving in the Detroit organization is hindering him, or Larry Rothschild was just very good at keeping him in line. Basically, though, the Yankees may as well have gotten Gregorius for free.

Robbie Ray

Ray was nearly as bad as Greene is now in 2014 for Detroit. He was the centerpiece of the mind-numbingly strange Doug Fister trade, and proved to be nearly useless for the Tigers. An 8.16 ERA in the big leagues set off alarm bells, to say the least, and he only managed a 4.22 ERA in Triple-A. That made it easy for Detroit to part with Ray and send him to Arizona. However, in 77.2 innings in the desert, Ray is actually pitching well for the Diamondbacks. He’s throwing harder, striking more batters out, giving up far fewer home runs, and generally looking like a useful piece. The Tigers sure could use this version of Robbie Ray to soak up innings for them instead of Alfredo Simon, who was acquired from the Reds for Eugenio Suarez. Ray is now one of a gaggle of young starters in the Diamondbacks’ possession, and looks like a better long term option than pitchers like Rubby de la Rosa.

Domingo Leyba

Leyba is a minor league infielder who can play both shortstop and second base. In their midseason prospect update, MLB.com ranked him as Arizona’s 8th best prospect. He isn’t posting strong hitting numbers in High-A ball, but scouts believe that he’ll be able to hit for average in the future. At just 19 years old, he’s got plenty of time to develop and put on more muscle. The jury will likely be out on Leyba for a few more years, but the Diamondbacks seem to have gotten a live one from the Tigers.

In short, the Yankees made out like bandits in this deal, while the Tigers may have actually come away with a negative net value gained. Shane Greene could still turn things around in his new organization, but Brian Cashman has to feel happy about this particular trade.

(Photo: Anthony Gruppuso-USA Today Sports)