Just because it makes sense to eschew both of these players, at least from a financial perspective, doesn’t mean it’ll be easy to find takers. The other 29 teams aren’t lining up to take on a 34 year-old center fielder owed $68 million through 2020 who hasn’t produced a season of more than 1.1 WARP since 2014. 2014! Yeah, it’s going to be hard to move Ellsbury without the Yankees taking on a significant portion of the salary. One other obstacle is Ellsbury’s full no-trade clause, but perhaps he’d be willing to leave New York for more playing time. On the contrary, Headley is the far more affordable of the two trade candidates, though asking another team to fully absorb all $13 million of his 2018 dues is likely to be returned with a chortle. That said, the switch-hitting third baseman does have a couple of redeeming qualities that make him more attractive to potential suitors: his contract will be complete after 2018 and he’s still a capable performer (2.3 WARP last year). Ultimately, in order to find a taker for either of these two, the Yankees will need to find a match that needs either a center fielder (or left fielder?) or corner infielder and has the wherewithal to add payroll. Or, someone looking to do the team a big favor.

There are plenty of teams that will sign or trade for outfielders and corner infielders this winter, but that doesn’t mean all of them would want to add Ellsbury or Headley. For example, teams likely not to contend next season, such as the White Sox or Athletics, who didn’t get much production from center field last year, wouldn’t waste their time considering Ellsbury. Basically, a club willing to inquire is likely trying to contend in 2018. Otherwise, there’s not much of a reason to take on such a financial commitment.

In cycling through the other 29 big league clubs, finding a potential match for Ellsbury is almost impossible. Only a couple come to mind, and even the following two take a bit of a stretch to make sense with: the Giants and Mariners. The two teams won 64 and 78 games this season, respectively, though it stands to reason that both clubs would like to contend next year considering the current makeup of its rosters. Both teams still have excellent core players (Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner for the Giants; Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and James Paxton for the Mariners) though those players’ peaks are likely nearing an end (Paxton the lone exception). Both clubs could use help in the outfield: Seattle’s starter in center field, Jarrod Dyson, is a free agent and San Francisco got little production from left and center field (though Denard Span is still in tow). A more sensible path to filling either of the team’s outfield needs could be to sign either Lorenzo Cain or J.D. Martinez, though only the former can play center field. Should the Mariners and Giants lose out on the big splash, perhaps taking on, say, $15 to $20 million of Ellsbury’s remaining $68 million salary is reasonable. Hey, one can hope!

When it comes to Headley, finding a prospective buyer isn’t as unimaginable as it is for Ellsbury. Two teams come to mind: the Angels and Giants (yes, again). Both teams didn’t get much out of the hot corner this year, so Headley would represent a certain on-field upgrade. For the Halos, the combination of Yunel Escobar and Luis Valbuena struggled in 2017, failing to reach a measly 1 WARP at the hot corner. For the Giants, Eduardo Nunez was the guy at the position until he was traded away. Otherwise, the amalgamation Ryder Jones, Pablo Sandoval, Jae-Gyun Hwang, Conor Gillaspie, Christian Arroyo, and Aaron Hill didn’t cut it. That’s a lot of flops, though Jones and Arroyo have some prospect sheen at least. We already went through the Giants potential to contend next year, so let’s quickly touch on the Angels: they have Mike Trout. Also, they won 80 games without him for much of last season, so it’s pretty easy to see them being in contention next year with a healthy Trout. One more plus on the Angels side: it can’t hurt that its general manager, Billy Eppler, used to work in the Yankees’ front office. From a financial perspective, perhaps the Yankees could shed more than half of what Headley is owed next season, considering that it’s only a one year commitment and he’s a solid player.

Trade partners aside, is it sensible for the Yankees to deal one or both of these two from an on-field perspective? It’s not much of a question for Ellsbury, as he’s already crowded out by Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, and Clint Frazier in terms of ability. The practicality of moving Headley, on the other hand, isn’t as clear. Moving him would create a void at third base, as Todd Frazier is a free agent and Miguel Andujar is unlikely to be handed the job. In fact, it’s probably more expensive to eat some of Headley’s salary and subsequently re-sign Frazier rather stand pat. Plus, Headley’s one remaining year on his deal makes him a good option as a holdover until Manny Machado’s free agency after 2018.

If you’ve made it this far, you might be wondering why I didn’t consider moving Gardner to shed salary. It’s become a yearly routine to discuss him as a trade candidate during the hot stove season, and this winter will probably be no different. He’s in the final year of his contract and costs $13 million next year toward the luxury tax cap. Plenty of clubs would be happy to add Gardner, though the Yankees are certain to exhaust all options with moving Ellsbury before moving on to its stalwart in left field.

It’s a fool’s errand to speculate about baseball trades, especially ones with large financial ramifications. Yet, here I am trying to find a landing spot for Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley. It’s not ridiculous to ponder potential suitors for Headley, but it’s somewhat humorous to suppose that some team would be interested in acquiring Ellsbury. Brian Cashman gets a lot of credit for his trade history because it seems like the Yankees always come out on top, but finding a trade partner for a sunken cost like Ellsbury while obtaining some salary relief would have a chance to be his best work yet.

Contract information from Cot’s.

Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch / USA TODAY Sports

This season has been one of riches for fans of the Yankees. The 3 1/2 games the club sits behind the Red Sox in the AL East heading into the All-Star break don’t do the first 96 games justice. Expectations were low coming out of spring training; another year into a soft rebuild was apt terminology for initial feelings. All that wishy-washy confidence for the future was quickly squashed in favor of the “now” after a 15-8 start to the season and numerous days atop the division. Propelled by the unlikeliest of heroes, there has been more than enough reason to watch Yankees baseball, especially with the injection of endless youth. With the debuts of Miguel Andujar, Dustin Fowler, Tyler Wade, Kyle Higashioka, Tyler Webb, and most recently Clint Frazier, one would think there is minimal talent left in their minor league system. For once, it’s a great to be sorely mistaken.

Jeff Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff released their mid-season top 50 list on Thursday, and three notable Yankees made the cut.

Gleyber Torres – (#7, #15 preseason)

I’ve written about Gleyber three times (1, 2, 3) in hopes of the trifecta of columns upon Torres’ MLB debut, but the best laid plans often go ary. A torn UCL in his non-throwing arm has sidelined the Yankees’ top prospect for the rest of 2017, meaning New York won’t see Torres in a third jersey this season, or watch him showcase his talents at the 2017 Futures Game (more on that event later). What we do know is that Torres has shown a refined approach at each level, resulting in appealing slash lines and projectability greater than any prospect we’ve seen debut in pinstripes in some time. The only real bug in his game is speculation on whether the raw power he has shown, can at some point turn itself into realized game power. If it doesn’t, we’re still looking at a viable second or third base option, but not with the caliber of upside shown by others prospects inside the top 15. Keep in mind, he was a 20 year old at AAA before the injury, and that speaks volumes for just how much to take this premature criticism with a grain of salt.

If second base is Torres’ position, he’ll feature one of the more advanced approaches up the middle from square one, with Starlin Castro’s $10 and $11 million owed in 2018 and 2019 respectively, the only barriers to eclipse. If third base – my personal guess for his early-career reps – becomes home, Chase Headley would likely be the odd man out and that doesn’t seem like it will be hard news to break to fans. Torres arrival in New York will be the most anticipated of any prospect the Yankees have stashed away in the recent years. More hyped than the debuts of Judge and Sanchez is correct.

Chance Adams – (#37, not ranked preseason)

Unlike Torres, there is an opportunity for Chance Adams to reach the Bronx this season. While the knocks on his game are height and the lack of number one starter upside, ceilings aren’t the only factor considered on a prospect lists. A mid 90s fastball, combined with an advanced, low 80s slider are his go-to offerings, while he mixes in a good changeup and a fringe curveball. Eric Longenhagen mentions that Adams’ command has been suppressed through his career due to his release point leaning on the side of inconsistent. Backed up by the similar 9-11% walk rates between levels during the second half of 2016 and early into 2017, success stories like Marcus Stroman always come to mind if you desire reasons for even more optimism. The inconsistent release point remains one minor reason why Longenhagen is concerned that Adams never finds the command to be a more than his floor indicates, but there is still so much to like with the 22 year old.

This feels like a rank based on floor to possibly even out some riskier picks by the BP Prospect Staff, but one I can’t criticize in the slightest. Adams sits ahead of higher-profile arms like the Cardinals’ Sandy Alcantara and Red Sox’s Jason Groome, and just behind a player whom I’ve personally grown fond of in the Indians’ organization, Triston McKenzie (32.4% strikeout rate, 2.91 ERA in 90 High-A innings). With the risk embedded in starting pitchers across the board, Adams’ 2.50 ERA across 55+ AAA innings and little worry about health are great signs, and likely the reasons why he has vaulted into the top 40 prospects on BP’s list.

Justus Sheffield – (#47, #52 preseason)

Most notable is the leap Adams made over Sheffield to the number one pitching prospect in the organization. The move was warranted after seeing the results this lefty had at AA Trenton compared to Adams, and gaining the knowledge that Sheffield has yet to find his way to Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Although his 3.09 ERA looks near pristine, the present concern is the career-low strikeout rate of 20.2%. He’s also shorter than Adams – who as we now know gets knocked for his height – and tinkered with his repertoire early this season, which could make assuming too much off his early 2017 stats a big error in the aggregate.

I like the fact Sheffield’s stock hasn’t taken a hit due to the results not resembling that of Adams. One way of looking at it is that hope for Adams increased while Sheffield’s stayed the same. That alone bodes well for the confidence surrounding his makeup, and before we know it, this southpaw might be replacing Adams at AAA due to the higher-ranked prospects promotion. Sheffield’s promotion won’t be far off afterwards.

Note: Sheffield was placed on the Minor League DL Wednesday, July 7th, with an oblique strain.

2017 Futures Game 

The Yankees had two representatives in the kick-off event of All-Star weekend: Pitcher Domingo Acevedo and outfielder Estevan Florial. The most interesting perk for a baseball nerd like myself? MLB’s Facebook page live streaming batting practice for each of teams. That’s where I got my first look at Florial in a resolution that wasn’t home video quality, and even though the common “five tools” tag on another farmhand becomes redundant, it’s tough to nix the assessment.

The first thing I noticed was the natural uppercut in Florial’s swing, similar aesthetically, but less exaggerated than the bat path of Freddie Freeman. It’s a swing that will lead to a decent amount of swing and miss, but also a lot of game power. Both were confirmed after observing the 30% strikeout rate and .502 slugging percentage he has through 74 games in A ball. In the game itself, the 19-year-old slotted in for two at bats, both against southpaws. He struck out against the Royals’ Foster Griffin and walked against the Athletics’ touted draft steal A.J. Puk. Each at bats gave us six pitches to look at, and from MLB.com’s pitch tracker, only three of the 12 were actually in the zone. Griffin elevated everything to Florial, while Puk buried everything away. Florial handled Griffin’s breaking pitches well, but whiffed on a great slider from Puk. Tough to infer much from the at bats themselves with such little exposure, but anytime a 19-year-old fits in with the caliber of young talent in this game, it’s a great sign.

Acevedo on the other hand faired much worse after allowing three runs on four hits and failing to showcase the power fastball he leverages from his 6’7″, 250 pound frame. The big righty has struggled since his promotion to AAA this season, after mowing through Trenton with ease. Only 12.1 innings into his final step before the Bronx, higher-level competition seems to have faired well off him, but as the the New York post highlighted after the game, Acevedo acknowledged the lapse and wants to learn from the experience. Compared to the youth in the Futures Game and in the Yankees’ system, Acevedo can be considered a veteran at 23 years old, and his wisdom may help to overcome any struggles sooner than later.

Some of this column’s details were reiterated from BP’s top 50 mid-season prospects list that I’ve linked to within, and will do so again here. Massive thanks to Jeff Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff for their hard work and expertise. 

Torres will undergo Tommy John Surgery to repair a torn UCL in his non-throwing elbow. An injury sustained Saturday as he slid into home plate head-first, in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays’ AAA affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons.

A column from the New York Daily News brought with it some insight into the timetable for his return, as well as the sly dismissal by Brian Cashman that Torres was an option to see time in the big leagues at some point in the next few months. Torres should be ready for Spring Training 2018 and even with my love for Cashman, we can call his bluff on the Torres debut that could have been.

The corresponding move to take Torres’ roster spot is the promotion of fringe top 10 prospect Miguel Andujar to AAA. I say fringe because Baseball Prospectus has him ranked as a “lottery ticket” while other sites place him just outside their top 10. Raw tools and upside are a combination of characteristics often mushed together, blanketing a good majority of prospects in any team’s organization, but it’s an apt descriptor for this Venezuelan righty bat. Andjuar possesses well above average bat speed, with raw power to his pull side, but is prone to the weak fly balls; a knock on a lot of hard swinging 22 year olds. With an arm that grades out at 70 per Jarrett Seidler (20-80, 70 is “plus-plus” aka, very good), he has the ability to stick at third, but needs to polish up his actions to become a viable option at the hot corner.

Almost as if it was meant to be, I had the pleasure of watching Andujar in Hartford, CT last Thursday, with his now former team, the Trenton Thunder. After reading scouting reports post-game, I couldn’t speak more to the athleticism he showed, and also the raw and mildly immature actions Seidler and company have cited as the key to smoothing out his game. I love the upside he possesses, and find myself instinctively attracted to any prospect with plus raw power and a sub 15% strikeout rate at AA. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Andujar as he showcases his talents in Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Seidler closes his Andujar blurb with a great catch-all statement.

“If nothing else, he’s a walking highlight reel complete with enthusiasm and hustle…” – Jarrett Seidler (link)

With Andjuar’s showcase set for AAA, it’s important to point out the order of names Cashman rattled off when presumably asked about the Yankees’ third base situation (NY Daily News). Chase Headley, Ronald Torreyes, and Tyler Wade. The former two we’re all too familiar with, while the latter – I would bet – eventually sees some time in pinstripes. Let’s start with Headley.

The issue I think we have with the perception of Headley is that mediocrity is not the best medicine when you have a 20-year-old phenom who can do the same thing, sitting the in the minor leagues (RIP 2017 Gleybermania). It’s not that Headley has been atrocious, he’s just below average in the things that matter: offense and defense. Difficult to infer on aesthetics alone, his base-running and six stolen bases through 62 games seem to be buoying his overall production metrics. Projecting out to be a 2 WARP player, there isn’t anything less exciting for fans who have the honor of watching Aaron Judge take batting practice, than also watching Headley do the same. Is former MVP candidate a liability? I would argue not, but if Cashman ever wanted to induce a bit more flare than the name Headley will ever have sharpied onto a lineup card, the other non-Torres option in the minors is Wade.

Regarded as an outfielder with a middle infielder’s hands, Wade possesses plus game speed, with 46 steals over his last two minor league seasons. The decision for Wade to see time at third base – nine games in 2017 (AAA) – is a bit perplexing especially given his tag as an above-average utility man, but the arm strength allows for a fit in small doses from my perspective. Currently slashing .324/.384/.466 in 63 games at AAA, Wade’s profile is one that will indeed be unique for a utility third baseman, which Cashman seems to imply as another depth option in his chat with reporters. Better than Headley? Well, I’ll give him different than Headley, and with some upside in every young bat, different may suffice without Torres. Wade’s offensive profile is one that might remind some Yankees fans of Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, and I think the faithful would stomach that over the current option.

Whichever path Cashman decides to walk, regardless of his skirting around the topic to journalists, my guess is – hold onto your seat – it won’t be as exciting as Torres. But if average production is all that the Yankees can muster, mixing and matching between Headley, the plus glove of Torreyes, or the speed of Wade, isn’t the worst of situations to be in. Especially with an offense that is firing on all possible cylinders.

Get well soon Torres, New York wants to fill the hot corner with a fresh face to purify the once sinful hot corner of New York.

The current state of the Yankees’ third base position is a Russian nesting doll. In our hands rests two pieces of Gleyber Torres’ much more appealing, freshly painted shell, which we can’t wait to use in covering up the battered, yet still relatively productive Chase Headley doll.

Relatively productive is the key. As I read through a story by Randy Miller citing a source that claims the Yankees are priming Torres to take over at third base this season, I thought to myself, “Is he really better than Chase Headley right now?” Sure there is the neatly placed caveat the eventual promotion is, “…contingent on Torres becoming Major League ready sometime over the next two months…” followed by the qualification, “…which the organization fully expects to happen.” While I’m all for developing prospects in the minors, I would be surprised if the already mature and baseball IQ wealthy Torres is substantially different after two months with the RailRiders.

Natural instinct, inflated by the lore around prospects around the majors in recent years, would bubble a hasty “yes” to the surface in answering my productivity question above. But, haste is often the bearer of irrational thought, and if there is anything more detrimental to expectations for a 20 year old player it’s exactly that. Between two levels this season here is what we’ve seen from Gleyber.

AA (32 games) – .273/.367/.496, 5 HR, 5 SB, 22 R, 18 RBI, 12.2% BB, 15.1% K, .223 ISO, .325 TAv

AAA (10 games) – .212/.366/.242, 0 HR, 2 SB, 3 R, 3 RBI, 17.1% BB, 26.8% K, .030 ISO, .250 TAv

Both too small of sample sizes to draw radical conclusions off of, but I think one of the better tells is in a stat that stabilizes quickly – Torres’ 17.1% walk rate – right in the window of comfortably above average we want it to be. Even when he goes through inevitable slumps at the major league level, the safety net of walks shouldn’t be riddled with holes. So why don’t we take a look at what Baseball Prospectus thought production could be from Gleyber preseason over 450 plate appearances, conveniently a bit more than Gleyber would muster if called up today.

2017 PECOTA 50th percentile – .231/.297/.382, 12 HR, 9 SB, 52 R, 47 RBI, .240 TAv

It’s relatively pessimistic, but acts as a bucket of cold water for anybody expecting elite production out of the gate as we’ve seen with other prospects. Our original Headley nesting doll is projected to post a .259 TAv for the rest of the 2017 season, perfectly league average, with another average asset in his fielding metrics (.4 FRAA – fielding runs above average). Removing the development and progression we’ve seen from Torres’ 42 games in 2017, Headley is expected to be league average and Baseball Prospectus’ number 15 overall prospect expectations would fall below average.

Magic happens when we fill in the gaps with information from what we’ve seen in Torres during this neglected 42 game, 2017 sample.

For one, Baseball Prospectus’ FRAA metric believes he improved defensively. After not exceeding the 1.0 mark at any point last season, Torres has improved to post a 2.2 FRAA at Trenton and a 1.7 FRAA at Scranton Wilkes-Barre. Important to note is that after only one appearance away from shortstop last season, he’s started 45% of his games between levels away from short. This seems consistent with the scouting report that Gleyber would be a below-average glove if he stuck at his drafted position. Edge to Torres, as it seems his glove will outplay Headley’s defensive expectations.

Speaking of bats, is it crazy to expect Torres to achieve Headley-level league average production with any improvement we’ve seen from 2016 to 2017?

PICTURE HERE

There is nothing we can admire more than incremental improvement as Torres refines his approach. Everything is pointing in the direction we want and contextual extra credit with the promotion to AA only helps to solidify the case that Torres’ bat is already advanced. If PECOTA were to re-project what to expect from Torres, I’d guess it falls somewhere into what Headley is projected for, a TAv right around .260 with a nice OBP, some pop, and probably a tinge more production on the stolen base front.

Mark Barry wrote a great comparison between Torres and Athletics’ prospect Franklin Barreto, two players with debuts I would bet fall close to each other in the second half of 2o17. Although the analysis a fantasy baseball minded approach, the takeaways are important in trying to gauge just how much of an impact Torres’ bat can have out of the gate and beyond. In Barry’s player-versus-player comparison, Torres wins OBP, homers, and counting stats, while Barreto takes average, steals, and the overall profile. Easy to debate Barry’s ultimate decision, but most notable is the speculation on one skill that I would bet gave Torres the number two spot on MLB.com’s competing prospect list; the development of power. Settling into the 12-15 home run range as Barry predicts isn’t exactly number two prospect material, so my assumption is that MLB.com believes more in the 20-25 potential that is ever so hard to gauge. If Torres takes the Francisco Lindor route of fly balls and homers, we’re looking at one of the game’s greats. But settling on something similar to Dansby Swanson’s power profile will leave New York with some thoughts of what could have been in Torres’ early 20s.

Our new Russian nesting doll covering Headley’s spot at third in the coming weeks isn’t a crazy leap to make. If Torres debuts in 2017, he’ll be unable to celebrate a potential playoff series with Champagne, fresh faced, and pinstripe clad; with – I hope – less media pressure to perform now that Aaron Judge has wrapped his arms around the city like the 6’8″ teddy bear we all knew he was. I encourage the fanbase to give Torres some time to settle in upon promotion. The initial difference between Torres and Headley may be smaller than perceived.

I wrote a post titled, “It’s Not Gleyber Time… Yet,” earlier this season, marking the first in this eventual trifecta of columns. Closing this circle, I’m glad to inform you upon Torres’ arrival, a post titled “Yes, It’s Gleyber Time,” will make its way to the medium of your choosing.  

Whether it’s the pinstripes, the financial might, 27 World Series titles, or even just the logo, if you have a pulse on this continent it’s pretty likely you know something about the Yankees. However, there is a difference between knowing something and being knowledgeable.

The folks who patronize this website are more likely to fall into the latter category, and people that do know that there are some more subtle “inside baseball” things the Yankees are known for. One of the most significant ones is stacking their lineup with left-handed hitters in order to take advantage of their famous-or infamous depending on your point of view-short right field porch.

This year that tendency has not changed. The current everyday lineup includes only one hitter–Alex Rodriguez–who hits exclusively from the right side. This roster construction method is tried and true for the Yankees and there’s no compelling reason to deviate from the plan now.

However, this year the Yankees should likely be more concerned than usual about their opponents using their own tactic against them. The team will always be vulnerable to left-handed power because of the way their ballpark is constructed, but this year the way their defense is deployed leaves them especially vulnerable.

The issue for the Yankees is that there is a serious imbalance in the skill-level of the defenders on the different sides of the diamond. On the left side–where right-handed hitters will pull the ball–they have a Gold Glover in Chase Headley at third base, a defensive stud in Brett Gardner in left and a shortstop with immense potential with the glove in Didi Gregorius.

Statistically speaking the trio’s defensive contributions over the past three years–a large enough sample for the fielding numbers to take hold–look like this.

The age of the players is included here because players tend to peak early defensively and relative youth is a bonus when it comes to turning balls in play into outs. The metrics don’t love Gregorius just yet, but the tools are there and he is young enough to refine his game. Even if he doesn’t he’s a scratch fielder at shortstop which is nothing to sneeze at. While the triumvirate on the left side of the field is very solid defensively, the trio on the right is less impressive.

This table is probably too generous to the players listed above. All three players are well into their decline years so we can be almost certain that their present true talent is worse than what they’ve shown. In fact, in 2012 Teixeira, Drew, and Beltran combined for a DRS of 14 and a UZR of 5.3 and last year those numbers were 0 and 0.8 respectively.

Additionally, Beltran was a disaster defensively in 2014 with a UZR/150 of -27.3, but luckily for the Yankees he was limited to only 259.2 innings. If Rodriguez settles in as the team’s DH, Beltran will be forced into the field more.

Another factor is Drew’s transition to second base which did not go well by the metrics last year-albeit in a very small sample. In theory a natural shortstop like Drew should excel at the keystone, but that needs to be seen to be believed.

Overall the Yankees are covering the right side of the field with three creaky old bodies whose best years with the glove are deep in the past. Right now the team has a reputation as a fairly strong defensive squad, but that is based off their excellent left side and the presence of Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann up the middle.

How exactly this affects the bottom line remains to be scene. Luckily for the Yankees their starters have fairly neutral platoon splits, so the pitching staff isn’t already in trouble with left-handers. So far left-handed hitters a slashing a healthy .291/.355/.396 off the Yankees, but in only 112 plate appearances it’s far too early to draw meaningful conclusions.

It is likely that over the course of the season hitters will find more holes on the right side of the field than the left against the Yankees, which will benefit left-handed hitters. Exactly how significant the effect will be remains to be seen, but there’s a good chance that the team will be getting a taste of their own medicine in 2015.