Bird’s right foot-the same foot that cost him most of last year- is mysteriously inflamed. In retrospect, the Yankees should’ve prepared for this as an inevitability. While it must be incredibly frustrating for Bird himself, the team just can’t rely on him to play 150+ games in the field. They haven’t announced yet whether or not he’ll start the season on the DL. Even if he returns to action in time for Opening Day, there’s at least a reasonable chance he’ll miss time at some point during the season. Should that happen, here’s where the Yankees will turn for a first baseman, in order of likelihood.

Neil Walker

Other than Bird, there will probably be only four players on the 25 man roster with any first base experience whatsoever. Brandon Drury played one inning at the position in 2013, and Gary Sanchez spent three innings there last year. Both have starting jobs elsewhere and almost certainly won’t be moved to first. Austin Romine barely hits enough to keep his job as a backup catcher, so even though he’s played 20 games at first base, he’s unpalatable as a long-term option. That leaves the most recent Yankee acquisition: Neil Walker

Walker is a 9-year MLB veteran who played second base almost exclusively from 2009-2016. His calling card is offense, and he brings a career 114 wRC+ into this season. He’s never been particularly adept at his natural position, posting -16 DRS and -23.5 UZR for his career. At age 32, he’s more likely to regress than progress, and frankly, he can’t afford to lose any range and stay up the middle. Last year, while playing for the Mets and Brewers, he was asked to spend some time at first base as well as third. Transitioning to the corners may be the key to extending his career into his mid-30s.

There’s another reason why Walker is the best backup first base candidate: Tyler Wade. Improbably, Wade beat out top prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar for a spot on the major league roster when the Yankees break camp. The fleet middle infielder impressed the coaching staff with his superior speed and defense. He’s no slouch at the plate either, batting .310/.382/.460 in AAA last year and has a .404 OBP in Spring Training. Manager Aaron Boone already announced plans to use Wade concurrently with Walker at second base, so if the latter moves over to first, there’s an in-house replacement at second.

Tyler Austin

Remember when Tyler Austin was a top prospect? Along with Mason Williams and Slade Heathcott, the Yankee outfield of the future never really materialized. Of the three former can’t-miss stars, Austin has the brightest future remaining. After moving to first base, he finally conquered the high minors in 2016, only to get hurt for most of last season (along with everyone else on the first base depth chart).

At age 26, Austin has nothing left to prove in the minors. He hasn’t hit much in the big leagues so far- just .236/.294/.447 through 136 PA, but the power is real. He’s crushed 4 HR and 2 2B this spring, so his bat looks pretty hot at the moment. If the Yankees aren’t comfortable with Walker at first base, or if Wade fails to hit, Austin will get the first call from the minors (assuming he doesn’t make the team out of Spring Training).

Miguel Andujar

What if the third baseman of the future isn’t a third baseman? Miguel Andujar posted a .850 OPS in AA and AAA last year and shot up the prospect charts this offseason. He followed that up with 7 XBH this spring. No one questions his ability to hit, nor the major league readiness of his bat. The Yankees even felt comfortable enough with him that they traded away Chase Headley before they had other third base alternatives (they’ve since added Drury and Walker, of course).

Most of the time, when a team sends a player down to “work on his defense,” it’s a euphemism for “we’re playing games with his service time.” (See Acuna, Ronald.) However, in the case of Andujar, they might be telling the truth. According to Jarrett Seidler in the Yankees BP Prospect Rankings, “The plus arm strength plays down because it isn’t paired with stellar accuracy. His hands aren’t great, and he doesn’t always make the best of choices on how to play the ball at third, which has led the Yankees to talk about exposing him to other positions, most likely first base.”

It’s too soon to give up on Andujar at the hot corner, so the Yankees aren’t likely to move him to first just yet. However, if Bird misses significant time again and can no longer be trusted with a starting job, Andujar’s future might be at the cold corner instead.

Other Options

The Yankees have two more imperfect options to fill a first base void. There’s Billy McKinney, who is on the 40 man roster but not really a first baseman. There’s also recent Rule V Draft returnee Mike Ford, who is not on the 40 man roster but is a real first baseman. Both showed the ability hit for some power and drew a few walks in the minors as well as Spring Training (though Ford was at the Mariners’ camp). Neither are exciting options at the moment, but if they get hot in the minor leagues, you never know what can happen.

In the event of a significant injury to Bird, perhaps the most likely outcome of all is that the Yankees go outside the organization. GM Brian Cashman still has some room under the $197 million luxury tax threshold as well as an overstocked farm system. Rather than suffer a war of attrition at first base for the second year in a row (third if you count Mark Teixeira’s final season), look for a major acquisition if things get desperate.

Photo credit: Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports

However, Brian Cashman has a (good) problem: he doesn’t need the deepest farm system in baseball. The Yankees roster is loaded with top, young talent under team control for some time. The team is already running into a bad 40-man roster situation, which will get worse. For example, I’ve hypothesized on the podcast that the reason Chance Adams wasn’t called up to the majors last summer was that the Yankees didn’t need to protect him in this year’s Rule V draft. The Yankee bullpen is so stacked that guys like Domingo German an Ben Heller were mostly wasted at Triple-A last year, despite excellent performances. Baseball has structured its roster system to put a cap on the number of good advanced players an organization can hold on to. And on top of it all, the Yankees have the money to acquire top talent in free agency if their farm system fails to produce at a position.

The solution to Cashman’s problem? Trade your excess capacity. He can swing trades while still holding on to Gleyber Torres, Estevan Florial, and all of our recent call-ups. Right away, the Yankees could use upgrades at starting pitcher (versus CC Sabathia), designated hitter, backup catcher, and left-handed relief. Even if the Yankees take a loss in an absolute sense on some of these trades (buying at more than the market price), the Yankees have the excess capacity to still end up better off.

And here’s the beautiful thing: the Yankees are more constrained by money right now than they are by trading chips. Pre-free agency players acquired by trade are cheaper than worse free agents purchased on the free market. Any money saved frees up further excess capacity to fill other holes in free agency. Put differently, trading away a bunch of prospects to acquire a cheap DH and starting pitcher makes it more likely the Yankees can sign Manny Machado.

So get trading, Cashman!

Torres will undergo Tommy John Surgery to repair a torn UCL in his non-throwing elbow. An injury sustained Saturday as he slid into home plate head-first, in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays’ AAA affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons.

A column from the New York Daily News brought with it some insight into the timetable for his return, as well as the sly dismissal by Brian Cashman that Torres was an option to see time in the big leagues at some point in the next few months. Torres should be ready for Spring Training 2018 and even with my love for Cashman, we can call his bluff on the Torres debut that could have been.

The corresponding move to take Torres’ roster spot is the promotion of fringe top 10 prospect Miguel Andujar to AAA. I say fringe because Baseball Prospectus has him ranked as a “lottery ticket” while other sites place him just outside their top 10. Raw tools and upside are a combination of characteristics often mushed together, blanketing a good majority of prospects in any team’s organization, but it’s an apt descriptor for this Venezuelan righty bat. Andjuar possesses well above average bat speed, with raw power to his pull side, but is prone to the weak fly balls; a knock on a lot of hard swinging 22 year olds. With an arm that grades out at 70 per Jarrett Seidler (20-80, 70 is “plus-plus” aka, very good), he has the ability to stick at third, but needs to polish up his actions to become a viable option at the hot corner.

Almost as if it was meant to be, I had the pleasure of watching Andujar in Hartford, CT last Thursday, with his now former team, the Trenton Thunder. After reading scouting reports post-game, I couldn’t speak more to the athleticism he showed, and also the raw and mildly immature actions Seidler and company have cited as the key to smoothing out his game. I love the upside he possesses, and find myself instinctively attracted to any prospect with plus raw power and a sub 15% strikeout rate at AA. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Andujar as he showcases his talents in Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Seidler closes his Andujar blurb with a great catch-all statement.

“If nothing else, he’s a walking highlight reel complete with enthusiasm and hustle…” – Jarrett Seidler (link)

With Andjuar’s showcase set for AAA, it’s important to point out the order of names Cashman rattled off when presumably asked about the Yankees’ third base situation (NY Daily News). Chase Headley, Ronald Torreyes, and Tyler Wade. The former two we’re all too familiar with, while the latter – I would bet – eventually sees some time in pinstripes. Let’s start with Headley.

The issue I think we have with the perception of Headley is that mediocrity is not the best medicine when you have a 20-year-old phenom who can do the same thing, sitting the in the minor leagues (RIP 2017 Gleybermania). It’s not that Headley has been atrocious, he’s just below average in the things that matter: offense and defense. Difficult to infer on aesthetics alone, his base-running and six stolen bases through 62 games seem to be buoying his overall production metrics. Projecting out to be a 2 WARP player, there isn’t anything less exciting for fans who have the honor of watching Aaron Judge take batting practice, than also watching Headley do the same. Is former MVP candidate a liability? I would argue not, but if Cashman ever wanted to induce a bit more flare than the name Headley will ever have sharpied onto a lineup card, the other non-Torres option in the minors is Wade.

Regarded as an outfielder with a middle infielder’s hands, Wade possesses plus game speed, with 46 steals over his last two minor league seasons. The decision for Wade to see time at third base – nine games in 2017 (AAA) – is a bit perplexing especially given his tag as an above-average utility man, but the arm strength allows for a fit in small doses from my perspective. Currently slashing .324/.384/.466 in 63 games at AAA, Wade’s profile is one that will indeed be unique for a utility third baseman, which Cashman seems to imply as another depth option in his chat with reporters. Better than Headley? Well, I’ll give him different than Headley, and with some upside in every young bat, different may suffice without Torres. Wade’s offensive profile is one that might remind some Yankees fans of Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, and I think the faithful would stomach that over the current option.

Whichever path Cashman decides to walk, regardless of his skirting around the topic to journalists, my guess is – hold onto your seat – it won’t be as exciting as Torres. But if average production is all that the Yankees can muster, mixing and matching between Headley, the plus glove of Torreyes, or the speed of Wade, isn’t the worst of situations to be in. Especially with an offense that is firing on all possible cylinders.

Get well soon Torres, New York wants to fill the hot corner with a fresh face to purify the once sinful hot corner of New York.

January 23rd, 2012

Yankees Trade: Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi (-2.0 WAR since)
Mariners Trade: Jose Campos and Michael Pineda (4.5 WAR since)

What a way to start. Enough ink has been spilled on this trade, so I won’t t go overly in-depth on it. This one has been as lopsided as they come, which says a lot given that Michael Pineda has been a relative disappointment thus far. Jesus Montero moved out from behind catcher, and the ‘bat that will play anywhere’ only seems to truly play at Triple-A. There’s still hope for the 26-year old, but the chances of him becoming a major-league regular are slim. Noesi, 29, is the owner of a career 5.30 ERA, and that’s all that needs to be said about him.

Once a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation upside, Jose Campos is just hoping to make the big leagues. It’s not all his fault, as a rash of injuries have crushed his value, but as is the case with Montero it’s tough to predict big league success for him. Luckily, Michael Pineda saves this deal.

Pineda, who recently turned 27, had a rough start with the Yankees. Despite a successful rookie year for the Mariners in 2011, it took him until 2014 to get back to the big leagues due to injuries. With those ailments behind him, Pineda has looked like a No. 3 or No. 4 starter with a ceiling near the top of the rotation. Last year’s 4.37 ERA was a disappointment, but his 3.34 FIP and flashes of elite stuff give the Yankees hope for a big 2016. At the very least, he’s a young and controllable starter with big upside that many teams would love to have—and the Yankees got him for two players that have combined for -2.0 WAR.

February 19th, 2012

Yankees Trade: A.J. Burnett and cash (6.8 WAR since)
Pirates Trade: Exicardo Cayones and Diego Moreno (0 WAR since)

Ah, the start of the Yankees vast trade history with the Pirates. On paper, this one looks pretty ugly, but the context of the deal needs to be understood.

This trade was made to get rid of $13M of Burnett’s remaining $33M left on his contract. The fact that this deal got done alone is impressive, given that nobody wanted the pricey player who had a 4.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in New York.

That said, this trade is one of Cashman’s weaker ones; Cayones and Moreno haven’t really panned out while Burnett flourished in Pittsburgh. That being said, the Yankees didn’t need to have the two prospects turn into contributors to be satisfied with the deal. Neither were ever looked at as legitimate prospects, and for the most part nothing has changed. Moreno’s actually done well in the Yankees’ system considering his past, and last year’s 2.18 ERA at Triple-A in the bullpen last year suggests that the 28-year old Moreno could see some innings in the Yankees ‘pen next year. This isn’t a trade to be proud of, but it’s also not one that the Cashman and the Yankees lost out on.

July 23rd, 2012

Yankees Trade: Danny Farquhar and D.J. Mitchell (0.4 WAR since)
Mariners Trade: Ichiro Suzuki (1.6 WAR since)

It’s not worth spending much time on this one, given the uninspiring results on both sides. Ichiro did about what the Yankees expected, and they were able to squeeze a year and a half of below average starter/great fourth outfielder production out of him. Mitchell hasn’t reached the big leagues since, and Farquhar’s had one very good season and two terrible ones. At this time last year, it may have looked like the Yankees blew it given Farquhar’s 2.66 ERA in 2014. But his 2015 ERA of 5.12 makes the Yankees’ rental of the then 38-year old Ichiro look solid.

July 26th, 2013

Yankees Trade: Corey Black (0 WAR since)
Cubs Trade: Alfonso Soriano (0.2 WAR since)

In the grand scheme of things, this trade wasn’t anything special. But, most Yankees fans will remember it because of four games in August where Alfonso Soriano went on one of the greatest hot streaks ever. He became the first player in baseball history with 12 hits and 18 RBIs in four games and those four games justified giving up Corey Black, who had the looks of a solid pitching prospect. Black is now a reliever and although he can miss bats, it doesn’t seem that he’ll be a player the Yankees will miss. Soriano provided a huge boost for the Yankees down the stretch, and while a dreadful -1.4 WAR in 2014 may have erased some of that initial impact, the move was still a great one for New York.

July 6th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Vidal Nuno (0.8 WAR since)
Diamondbacks Trade: Brandon McCarthy (1.3 WAR since)

In one of Brian Cashman’s most shrewd moves in recent years, the Yankees were able to ship off a player who was pitching in the independent leagues a couple seasons prior to his acquisition for McCarthy, who was arguably the Yankees’ best pitcher down the stretch. Things didn’t work out according to plan in the long run — the Yankees missed the playoffs and McCarthy didn’t re-sign — but, turning Nuno (likely a long reliever) into 90.1 innings of a 2.89 ERA from Brandon McCarthy was a brilliant move by Brian Cashman.

July 22nd, 2014

Yankees Trade: Rafael De Paula and Yangervis Solarte (2.6 WAR since)
Padres Trade: Chase Headley (3.2 WAR since)

This is one of the few trades that I’m not a fan of. A fan favorite, Solarte has surprisingly been productive as a member of the Padres. He was worth 2.2 WAR in 2015, exactly twice as much as Chase Headley was. In addition, Solarte is just 28, under team control through 2020, and dirt cheap until 2017. De Paula was, at one time, a promising pitching prospect. But his 5.01 ERA in 2015 (mostly out of the bullpen) means that the Yankees probably aren’t lamenting over his departure.

Still, this didn’t work out for the Yankees the way many expected. While Headley was very solid for the remainder of 2014 and re-signed with the team, he drastically under-performed last season and it’s hard to imagine a full recovery. On the other end of the spectrum, Solarte surprised many with his performance and a repeat in 2016 isn’t all that unlikely. This trade could still turn in the Yankees’ favor, but it’s probably the weakest of Girardi’s in years.

July 31st, 2014

Yankees Trade: Kelly Johnson (0.1 WAR since)
Red Sox Trade: Stephen Drew (-0.2 WAR since)

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha nope.

July 31st, 2014

Yankees Trade: Peter O’Brien (0.2 WAR since)
Diamondbacks Trade: Martin Prado (5.2 WAR since)

Yankee fans were initially up in arms about this trade, as shiny new toys that can play catcher and hit baseballs far are coveted in New York. Alas, O’Brien’s gone the way of Jesus. Like Montero, he has seen his strikeouts pile up and he’s now left without a position. The 25-year who combined for 71 home runs in 213 games over the past two seasons isn’t much of a prospect anymore due to his lack of position. O’Brien’s big power could still have a place on a big-league roster, but he probably isn’t a starter.

The return for the Yankees, Martin Prado, only spent 37 games with the team. Still, he accrued an impressive 2.1 WAR and hit .316 while in the Bronx. An appendectomy and subsequent trade sent him to Miami, but his return, Nathan Eovaldi, is just as important as Prado’s short 2014 campaign with the Yankees. Once again, it appears that Cashman has won handily, and maybe one day teams will learn not to acquire fringe-catching prospects from the Yankees.

November 12th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Francisco Cervelli (3.1 WAR since)
Pirates Trade: Justin Wilson (1.4 WAR since)

The next installment of the Yankees-Pirates trade saga was one of Cashman’s few poor moves. The trade is understandable, given the Yankees’ lack of space for Cervelli and their organizational depth at catcher. Still, Cervelli had a great year in Pittsburgh, hitting .295 and showing off his elite framing skills. Wilson was very good, with a 3.10 ERA and 9.7 K/9, but a good catcher is much more valuable than a good reliever. It’s only been a year and the Yankees weren’t ripped off, but it wasn’t one of Cashman’s finest works.

December 5th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Shane Greene (-1.8 WAR since)
Diamondbacks Trade: Didi Gregorious (3.3 WAR since)

What an experience this trade was! It’s probably best to cover this in a couple of diary entries from Yankees fans:

>December 5th, 2014: Dear Diary, the Yankees made a trade today. It was pretty fair—the Yankees filled a need at shortstop despite giving up a promising young pitcher. It’s not a steal, but a trade I can deal with. We’ll check back in a few months…

>April 23rd, 2015: DEATH IS NEAR. WE HAVE GIVEN UP ALL HOPE. SHANE GREENE HAS A 0.39 ERA IN THREE STARTS AND IS THE NEXT JUSTIN VERLANDER. DIDI GREGORIOUS IS BATTING .200 AND HAS A 33 wRC+. HE’S A BUTCHER ON THE FIELD AND IN THE BASE PATHS.

>October 1st, 2015: Cashman’s the best! We have the shortstop of the future in Didi Gregorious, who was worth 3.3 WAR last season. Even better, he had a .294 batting average and 109 wRC+ in the second half, so an improvement in 2016 isn’t out of the question. He’s also a great defender! We still miss Shane Greene, but we don’t miss his 6.88 ERA in Detroit. This trade was a downright steal!

This was not exaggerated in any way and all Yankee fans can attest to that.

December 19th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Martin Prado and David Phelps (3.3 WAR since)
Marlins Trade: Garrett Jones, Nathan Eovaldi, and Domingo German (1.2 WAR since)

Based on WAR totals alone, it might seem silly of me to proclaim this as another Cashman success, but upon a careful look it’s a great move for the Yankees. Martin Prado is still a solid infielder and a player that every team would love to have thanks to his flexibility. David Phelps is, well, David Phelps. He had a 4.50 ERA last season in 19 starts and as boring as Phelps is, he’ll find ways to remain on the big league roster.

One reason why the Yankees’ return WAR is so low is due to Garrett Jones’ -0.6 mark in New York. Many thought his swing and power would fit nicely in Yankee stadium, but after just five home runs and a .215 batting average in 57 games, Jones was designated for assignment. He can be effectively scratched off this deal. Domingo German was a very solid pitching, but Tommy John surgery in Spring Training leaves his status up in the air. He could end up starting, but now it looks like German is more likely a reliever. That said, it wouldn’t be shocking to see German out-perform David Phelps if his stuff is back following the surgery.

Finally, we get the big name of this deal: Nathan Eovaldi. ‘Evo’ had an up-and-down 2015 for the Yankees, struggling out of the gate but showing promise in the second half before falling to elbow inflammation in September. At his best, Eovaldi has the upside of an ace. His big time velocity and nasty splitter could make Eovaldi a special player. The Yankees will have to hope that his elbow holds up, but this trade looks like another great one for New York.

January 1st, 2015

Yankees Trade: Manny Banuelos (-0.2 WAR since)
Braves: David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve (1.3 WAR since)

Just like the Didi Gregorious trade, this deal was quite the emotional rollercoaster. It certainly hurt fans to lose the previously beloved Banuelos, who was only a couple years and a Tommy John surgery removed from being a top pitching prospect. Things were looking up for Banuelos to start last season, as he was finally healthy and had a 2.23 ERA in Triple-A. Injuries struck again, though, and his 5.13 ERA in the majors hasn’t been very encouraging.

Back in New York, David Carpenter was never able to find success. After struggling through just 18.2 innings of 4.82 ERA ball, he was designated for assignment. Chasen Shreve saved this trade for the Yankees, with a 3.09 ERA last season in 58.1 innings. Shreve was hugely valuable to the team in the first half of the season, with a 2.02 ERA. He hit a wall in the latter part of the season, though, and had a 4.76 ERA after the All-Star Break. It depends on which pitcher shows up in 2016, but there’s optimism that Shreve can once again be an above-average relief pitcher for the team. Banuelos has some control over how this deal ends up looking, and there’s still hope that the 24-year-old can stay healthy and be a back-of-the-rotation starter. There’s plenty of baseball left to be played for these players, but it’s another solid trade by Cashman at the least.

Overall, it’s clear that Brian Cashman’s track record in trades is overwhelmingly successful. Among the significant moves detailed here, only one of them looks like a ‘bad deal’ and the others seem to be at the very worst ‘fair.’ There’s time for the winners of each trade to switch, but these moves are great evidence of Cashman’s elite trading abilities.

It’s important to be aware of Cashman’s success in this facet of running the Yankees, because it could very well be the only way the team stays afloat over the next couple of years. Given the lack of prosperous free agent classes until after the 2018 season and the Yankees’ newfound refusal to spend money, Cashman could be forced to rely on these deals to build up the roster. Shying away from free agents doesn’t sound fun, but based on Cashman’s past primarily focusing on trades may not be a bad strategy.

Lead photo: Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports

A year ago I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Ben’s assessment. In fact, last September as a second straight non-playoff season wound to its end, I wrote that the Yankees were “destined for a down period, the type every other team goes through every few years, and this time there’s not much they can do about it.”

But the Yankees defied my expectations and reached the playoffs in 2015 thanks to surprising contributions from some players — notably Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran — that I had assumed to be dead money.

Still, three months ago I still assumed a short rebuild period was on the way. The Yankees’ 87 wins in 2015 didn’t seem repeatable with the team’s core aging and its depth chart stuck with some hard-to-fill holes. Brian Cashman’s commitment to youth meant the Yankees’ wouldn’t sacrifice prospects to restock the current team, which meant they would stumble through the next three years making due with what they had.

Then, Cashman went out and traded for Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro and Aroldis Chapman and parted with only a backup catcher, middle reliever and four largely insignificant prospects. Suddenly the 2016 Yankees appear better on paper than last year’s team, and 85 wins looks like the floor for the upcoming season.

After all that’s happened in the last calendar year, from a surprise playoff berth to an impressive off-season, I’ve come to believe the Yankees can in fact have it all. Cashman is walking a tightrope, trying to contend while counting down the years until Teixeira, Rodrguez, Beltran and CC Sabathia come off the books and a crop of superstars becomes available. He’s not only kept from falling during this high-wire act, he seems to have kept himself impeccably balanced.

Despite his pessimistic view of the short-term future, Ben concedes the Yankees will probably compete for a playoff spot in 2016. This will be a team without stars, but thanks to Cashman, one without serious holes, especially if a mid-rotation starting pitcher arrives before Opening Day.

Let’s fast-forward to 2017. Teixeira and Beltran will be off the books, and Greg Bird and Aaron Judge will likely inherit playing time with their departures. The Yankees will likely still have to pay Chase Headley, Brian McCann, A-Rod and Jacoby Ellsbury more money than they’re worth, but a young position-player core will be in place, and by that time the Tanaka-Severino-Pineda-Eovaldi starting rotation will have hit its prime.

There’s little sense in predicting as far into the future as 2018, but it seems reasonable to assume much of the emerging group of 20-somethings will remain assembled, with other additions to prop them up. Cashman has shown in recent years an impressive ability to acquire real big-league value without sacrificing much of consequence. Eovaldi cost David Phelps. Didi Gregorius cost Shane Greene. Starlin Castro cost Adam Warren. No general manager wins every trade, but Cashman seems to be coming close. If there’s any executive in baseball I trust to make the kinds of incremental improvements that boost a team from 80 wins to 85, or from 85 to 90, it’s the guy running the Yankees.

Ben’s forecast for a Yankee decline rests on the idea that though the 2015 core was overpaid, it provided value that will likely dwindle over the next few years. And while this is true, it doesn’t take into account the group whose value will presumably increase between now and 2018. The progression of Gregorius, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Castro, Bird and Judge, plus any additions Cashman makes over the next few off-seasons, should counteract some of the graying and keep the Yankees above water. Like the 2013-15 Yankees, the 2016-18 squads will feature several high-mileage players trending downward. But unlike recent teams, these next few will also include a promising group of youngsters.

The Yankees are rebuilding, but so far they’ve managed to prepare for the future without totally sacrificing the past. It’s a tough act to pull off, but right now it appears to be working.

They likely won’t be great team at any point during the next three years, but the Yankees might very well be better from 2016-18 than they were from 2013-15. At the very least it remains quite possible they remain above .500 and in playoff contention each season until the 2018 cavalry comes to join the prospects and restore the Yankees to glory.

Lead photo: Noah K. Murray/USA Today Sports