With Gardner back in the mix, the Yankees have a bunch of outfielders on the roster, but only so much playing time to go around. Obviously, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Hicks are going to play as much as possible. Whether or not Stanton is essentially a full-time designated hitter again is a separate question. He seemed to get better in left field as 2018 went on, but maybe the team is still reluctant to play him there. Let’s not forget about Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier, though I’m sure we’d rather forget the former. Throw in the potential to sign a free agent like Bryce Harper, and things get really crowded. It may seem like there is an excess of outfielders, but unless the Yankees are extremely fortunate, at least one of these guys will get hurt next season. That means the 35-year-old Gardner is going to play to some extent. The question is: what’s his ideal usage?

Year after year, it seems like Gardner gets off to a torrid start offensively and wears down by the dog days of summer. The data above pretty much confirms that notion (with 2016 being an exception).  In 2015, Gardner peaked at plate appearance number 352. 2017 was a bit of a roller coaster; he topped off early at his 169th trip, cooled down for another 150 or so plate appearances, and plateaued again at 449. In 2018, he topped out at plate appearance number 249 and was pretty much all downhill thereafter.

Gardner is a max-effort player every single time he’s involved on the field. So it should be no wonder that his offensive output slows down as the year goes on, especially as he’s entered his mid-thirties. To maximize his production in 2019, he probably shouldn’t go to bat much more than 400 times, if possible. The days of 600-plus plate appearances are over.

Toward the very end of this season, I think we got the hint that the Yankees recognize that it’s time to curtail Gardner’s playing time. With Andrew McCutchen on the roster and Aaron Judge finally healthy, the outfield was full and Gardner was basically in a platoon with McCutchen. Considering Gardner’s struggles against southpaws and his well documented late season swoons, a similar plan would make sense in 2019.

Of course, the best laid plans are just that — plans. There’s always a chance that Gardner will be thrust into the thick of things should the dreaded injury bug strike. Still, the offseason is barely a few days old, so the team’s outfield intentions are still somewhat unknown. And, given the lineup construction after Judge returned, it seems reasonable to expect that the Yankees are aiming to limit Gardner’s time even if there are injuries. At this point of his career, he’s an excellent part-time player, and that should be the role he plays in 2019 no matter what happens around him.

Photo Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Any Yankee fan alive in 2001 remembers another classic Yankee send off. Late in Game 5 of the 2001 World Series, fans said goodbye to Paul O’Neill. The emotional moment was well deserved. O’Neill was an iconic member of the greatest dynasty in modern baseball history. He was a very good player in his eight seasons with the Yankees.

Brett Gardner deserves the same goodbye. If the Yankees do not pick up his $12 million option for the 2019 season, he will end his career as one of the best outfielders in Yankee history.

*Aside: Damn, Ricky Henderson was good. I wish I was around to watch him own the American League.

It doesn’t feel like it, but Brett Gardner has had a better Yankee career than a lot of Yankee greats, including Bobby Murcer, Paul O’Neill, and Dave Winfield. He’s been better on a per-game basis than Bernie Williams and Roy White. At his peak, Gardner stole 45+ bases per season, was one of the game’s best defensive outfielders, and was worth more than 5 wins per season (7.4 wins in 2010 if you use bWAR). As Gardner aged, his consistent hitting and great defense contributed a consistent 3 wins per year to the Yankees. While those Yankee teams often missed the playoffs or disappointed, Brett Gardner is one of the biggest reasons why they never had a losing season. Even as age diminished his offensive performance in 2018, Gardner’s defense and baserunning have turned in a 2-3 win performance.

Gardner feels different than these players. Yankee fans, including myself, haven’t treated Gardner like the 9th best outfielder in Yankee history. Part of it is timing. Unlike O’Neill, Gardner didn’t get to spend his career with peak Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, and Andy Pettitte. The Gardner-era Yankees were humbled by baseball’s new dynasty-thwarting economics, and a declining Yankee team. Gardner won one World Series, but I struggle to remember a specific Brett Gardner postseason heroic moment. However, players like Roy White and Bobby Murcer have similar postseason records. Both have their deserved spot in Yankee history, even if they weren’t quite as good as Brett Gardner.

Rather, I think there are two reasons why Gardner was underrated. First, he came out of nowhere. Brett Gardner was never considered a top minor league prospect. A walk-on at the College of Charleston, he was always regarded as a potential MLB bench player. It took the Yankees nearly two years to realize that they had a 5-win player despite his excellent Triple-A record. Unlike Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and other top Yankee prospects, there was no Brett Gardner hype. The excitement was all retrospective.

Second, Gardner’s contributions are quieter than most top Yankee outfielders. He has been one of the most valuable baserunners and defensive players of the past decade. When he was first called up, even many sabermetrically-inclined baseball fans distrusted defensive metrics. I recall fierce debates claiming that a left fielder like Brett Gardner could not possibly be worth 2-3 wins on defense. Today, these debates are much less fierce, and we appreciate defensive value for what it is. However, the result was that we don’t remember the experience of Brett Gardner, elite outfielder.

I won’t be at the wild-card game. If I were, I would chant Brett Gardner’s name, and ask for one last curtain call. We’ll miss him.

Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Gardner first added power to his game back in 2014, when he hit 17 home runs and posted a career-high .166 isolated power. He followed that season up with 16 more homers in 2015. In 2016, he cratered to early career norms: he swatted just seven long balls. Then came 2017, when he rebounded in a big way. Will Gardner get back in the saddle, or is his run as a long ball threat over?

To date, Gardner has posted a .069 isolated power, easily the lowest mark of his career for a full season’s worth of games. A big reason why he’s failing to get extra base hits, let alone hit home runs, is because he’s hitting fewer fly balls. His ground ball rate is up seven percentage points compared to last season. When he is getting the ball in the air, he’s not striking it well. Gardner has hit four pop-ups already this season after hitting no more than 12 in each of the last two years.

Obviously, more ground balls and pop-ups is not a recipe for power hitting. Gardner’s simply not squaring up the ball like he did last year when he posted a 9.7 degree launch angle. In the early stages of 2018, his launch angle is a worm-burning 5.7 degrees, which is even lower than his mark in 2016 when he rarely hit for extra bases. His year-over-year decrease explains the jump in grounders hit. In order to hit more doubles, triples, and homers, Gardner needs to elevate the ball more, though not too much in order to avoid pop-ups.

On the bright side, Gardner hasn’t seen a dip in average exit velocity. In fact, it’s higher than each of his past two years. Interestingly enough, despite the difference in power when comparing 2016 and 2017, Gardner had the exact same average exit velocity: 85.4 miles per hour. That just goes to show how important his launch angle was last season. So far in 2018, Gardner has averaged 86.6 miles per hour off the bat, so it doesn’t seem like he’s incapable of hitting the ball hard anymore.

Further good news is that the lack of slugging hasn’t taken away from other parts of Gardner’s game. He’s drawn walks in 15.6 percent of plate appearances thus far which has allowed him to maintain his customary high on-base percentage (.358). That’ll do for a leadoff hitter. Obviously being more than a singles and walks hitter would be ideal, but he’s still setting the table like he always has.

To further boost spirits: the calendar hasn’t flipped to May yet, so there’s a chance that it’s too soon to be worried. After all, Gardner only hit two home runs in 2017’s first month of the season, yet went on to bash 19 more the rest of the way. Maybe a similar trend is in store this year. Ring that small sample size bell, Gardner will be fine, right?

Now to pour some cold water on the optimistic last few paragraphs. Even though Gardner has still been useful and there is some indication that fixing his launch angle could get him back in gear, there’s still the looming question of decline. I can drone on about the numbers and how there is room for improvement, but the fact is that his age must be considered. Father time catches up to everyone, Gardner included. Every player is different, but most players who are Gardner’s age begin to decline or have been trending poorly for a few seasons. Many of us probably were wondering if Gardner’s 2016 was the begin of his decline, though that concern was eliminated after a strong 2017. But what if 2017 was merely a blip on the radar or one last gasp for air? That’s not out of the realm of possibilities, and that would mean that 2018 is just Gardner’s downward slope getting back on track. Either way, the end is coming for the longtime Yankee, and that means his power could be gone at a moment’s notice – including now.

There’s still plenty of season left, so it’s too soon to write off Gardner’s ability to go deep. It’s not too soon, however, it be concerned. There wouldn’t be much consternation if Gardner was five or six years younger, which is why nobody is ringing the alarm about Giancarlo Stanton (they’re much different hitters, I know). At 34, there are reasonable questions about Gardner’s ability to sustain (or come near) last year’s performance. If he can’t, a reduction in playing time may be due as the season goes on. We’re still in the wait-and-see phase and the offense is clicking despite Gardner’s lack of pop, so no drastic changes are in order yet.

Photo credit: Richard Mackson / USA TODAY Sports

One of the more surprising, refreshing, and little-appreciated aspects of the Yankees’ solid season has been the team’s base running. We usually do not spend time talking about Yankee teams and base running because…well…in recent years it has not been good. From 2010 to 2016, the Yankees posted a negative BRR (base running runs, which is the runs better than average a team is at a certain advancement opportunity, with zero representing average) in four of those seasons, including every season from 2014-2016. Take a look at the chart below:

In other words, the Yankees have done a poor job in recent years at taking advantage of opportunities to take the extra base (making it to second successfully on a passed ball, going first to third on a hit to the outfield, etc). This is likely largely due to having older players who simply do not have the speed to do so. You could probably count on one hand a number of times you saw Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, or Mark Teixeira go from first to third or second to home on singles over the past three seasons.

This year, however, has been a much different story. The Yankees have collectively posted a BRR of 5.9, good for the eighth best mark in baseball (the San Francisco Giants rank first with a score of 9.6). The last time they ranked that high was 2013 when the team ranked ninth with a mark of 4.8. This year’s mark of 5.9 is the sum total of the individual scores given for the five different types of possible advancement by a base runner:

-SBR (Advancement on stolen bases): 2.10
-GAR (Advancement on balls hit on the ground to infielder): 1.18
-AAR (Advancement on balls hit in the air that are caught): 1.71
-HAR (Advancement on hits to the outfield): 1.59
-OAR (Advancement on other opportunities such as wild pitches and passed balls): -0.61

As you can see, the Yankees collectively are slightly better than average in four of the five potential advancement opportunities, while just a tick below average in taking advantage of passed balls and wild pitches (technically, balks are also included in “other”, but by rule the runner is allowed to move up a base, not by choice). The Bombers’ best baserunner in 2017 is unsurprisingly Brett Gardner, who currently boasts a personal BRR score of 3.2, good for 24th in all of baseball. Of the ten Yankees who have had at least 50 opportunities to advance a base or bases in any kind of manner (total base running opportunities), seven have posted scores above zero (again, with zero being average).

The 2017 Yankees being an overall good base running team not only passes the stat test, but it also passes the eye test. Here’s a good example of the kind of the thing that the stats say the Yankees are good at doing this season.

In the seventh inning of Thursday afternoon’s game against Detroit (in between all the brawling and bench clearings), the Yankees had team BRR leader Brett Gardner on first and Jacoby Ellsbury at third with nobody out while trailing by 6-4. Aaron Hicks hit a high fly ball to left which looked as though it was heading out for a three-run home run. Detroit’s Justin Upton leaped at the wall to rob Hicks of a long ball, but Ellsbury still tagged up from third to make it a one-run game.

Perhaps more importantly, Gardner did not get caught up in the fact that the ball may leave the ballpark but instead tagged up from first base and easily made it to second. Having the tying run at second with one out with the three and four place hitters in the lineup due up is a much better position than a runner at first with one out. And on cue, Gary Sanchez immediately followed with a ground ball single to center field that brought Gardner home with the tying run. So yes, while Sanchez gets credit for the RBI, Gardner also deserves a great deal of credit for the superb base running to get Sanchez in a situation where just a single could tie the game.

It feels nice when what the stats tell us and what our eyes/gut tell us actually coincide. In this instance, the two evaluation tools tell us that this Yankee team is quite good at taking the extra base when given the opportunity. As the regular season heads into the home stretch and playoff baseball approaches where outs are as precious as gold, this collective skill can help a team win games and ultimately series.

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire / USA TODAY Sports

Torres will undergo Tommy John Surgery to repair a torn UCL in his non-throwing elbow. An injury sustained Saturday as he slid into home plate head-first, in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays’ AAA affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons.

A column from the New York Daily News brought with it some insight into the timetable for his return, as well as the sly dismissal by Brian Cashman that Torres was an option to see time in the big leagues at some point in the next few months. Torres should be ready for Spring Training 2018 and even with my love for Cashman, we can call his bluff on the Torres debut that could have been.

The corresponding move to take Torres’ roster spot is the promotion of fringe top 10 prospect Miguel Andujar to AAA. I say fringe because Baseball Prospectus has him ranked as a “lottery ticket” while other sites place him just outside their top 10. Raw tools and upside are a combination of characteristics often mushed together, blanketing a good majority of prospects in any team’s organization, but it’s an apt descriptor for this Venezuelan righty bat. Andjuar possesses well above average bat speed, with raw power to his pull side, but is prone to the weak fly balls; a knock on a lot of hard swinging 22 year olds. With an arm that grades out at 70 per Jarrett Seidler (20-80, 70 is “plus-plus” aka, very good), he has the ability to stick at third, but needs to polish up his actions to become a viable option at the hot corner.

Almost as if it was meant to be, I had the pleasure of watching Andujar in Hartford, CT last Thursday, with his now former team, the Trenton Thunder. After reading scouting reports post-game, I couldn’t speak more to the athleticism he showed, and also the raw and mildly immature actions Seidler and company have cited as the key to smoothing out his game. I love the upside he possesses, and find myself instinctively attracted to any prospect with plus raw power and a sub 15% strikeout rate at AA. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Andujar as he showcases his talents in Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Seidler closes his Andujar blurb with a great catch-all statement.

“If nothing else, he’s a walking highlight reel complete with enthusiasm and hustle…” – Jarrett Seidler (link)

With Andjuar’s showcase set for AAA, it’s important to point out the order of names Cashman rattled off when presumably asked about the Yankees’ third base situation (NY Daily News). Chase Headley, Ronald Torreyes, and Tyler Wade. The former two we’re all too familiar with, while the latter – I would bet – eventually sees some time in pinstripes. Let’s start with Headley.

The issue I think we have with the perception of Headley is that mediocrity is not the best medicine when you have a 20-year-old phenom who can do the same thing, sitting the in the minor leagues (RIP 2017 Gleybermania). It’s not that Headley has been atrocious, he’s just below average in the things that matter: offense and defense. Difficult to infer on aesthetics alone, his base-running and six stolen bases through 62 games seem to be buoying his overall production metrics. Projecting out to be a 2 WARP player, there isn’t anything less exciting for fans who have the honor of watching Aaron Judge take batting practice, than also watching Headley do the same. Is former MVP candidate a liability? I would argue not, but if Cashman ever wanted to induce a bit more flare than the name Headley will ever have sharpied onto a lineup card, the other non-Torres option in the minors is Wade.

Regarded as an outfielder with a middle infielder’s hands, Wade possesses plus game speed, with 46 steals over his last two minor league seasons. The decision for Wade to see time at third base – nine games in 2017 (AAA) – is a bit perplexing especially given his tag as an above-average utility man, but the arm strength allows for a fit in small doses from my perspective. Currently slashing .324/.384/.466 in 63 games at AAA, Wade’s profile is one that will indeed be unique for a utility third baseman, which Cashman seems to imply as another depth option in his chat with reporters. Better than Headley? Well, I’ll give him different than Headley, and with some upside in every young bat, different may suffice without Torres. Wade’s offensive profile is one that might remind some Yankees fans of Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, and I think the faithful would stomach that over the current option.

Whichever path Cashman decides to walk, regardless of his skirting around the topic to journalists, my guess is – hold onto your seat – it won’t be as exciting as Torres. But if average production is all that the Yankees can muster, mixing and matching between Headley, the plus glove of Torreyes, or the speed of Wade, isn’t the worst of situations to be in. Especially with an offense that is firing on all possible cylinders.

Get well soon Torres, New York wants to fill the hot corner with a fresh face to purify the once sinful hot corner of New York.

Let’s take a look at the major changes in Hicks’ numbers. As I mentioned before he’s leading the AL in OBP. Due in part to the fact he is walking a lot more. Hicks has already walked 16 times this season (17.4%), way up from his career walk rate of (10.1%). Take a look at his plate discipline numbers (Below) and sure enough you see Aaron Hicks has flat out stopped swinging. Among players with 80 PAs, his O-Swing% is the lowest in the league, Z-Swing% is 23rd lowest, and overall Swing% is 3rd lowest in the league. His current O-Swing and Swing% would have been good for lowest in the majors last season as well, by a margin of over 2 percentage points apiece.

Plate Discipline

Hicks’ low swing rate is going to lead to a lot of walks. And walks are a good thing. His teammate, Brett Gardner, has made a career out of taking pitches. He currently has the lowest swing rate in the league and the second-lowest rate in the past three seasons combined. So does a low swing rate correlated to success at the plate? Below is a chart of last year’s qualified hitters OBP and TAv vs. both Swing% and O-Swing%, along with the correlation coefficient and p-value for O-Swing or Swing% significance as a linear predictor:

As you can see OBP and both O-Swing and Swing% are fairly well correlated and both serve as a very significant linear predictor of OBP as well (very low p-values). This is fairly intuitive. If a batter swings at balls less he is going to walk more, and get on base more. The relationship between TAv and both Swing% is less correlated but O-Swing% and Swing% serve as significant predictors. This one is also not hard to figure out. Generally, batters are not going to make good contact on balls out of the strike zone. The more balls out of the zone they lay off the quality of contact, and the higher TAv.

Swinging less isn’t always good however. Taking strike’s in the middle of the zone is not a good thing. Aaron Hicks, sure enough, has been guilty of this a lot this season:

He has only a 44.8% Swing% on pitches in the lower third of the strike zone and has only swung at 9 of 14 pitches over the middle of the plate!

Now this is a sign of regression to come for Hicks. Swinging at so few strikes is not good for power. I looked last year’s relationship between Swing% and ISO and the linear relationship was minimal, cor = 0.021 p-value = 0.805. If a hitter is swinging less overall, it does not tell you much about their power.

Hicks is not hitting the ball harder, he’s actually hitting the ball less hard. His Average Exit Velocity is 83.7 MPH down from 2016, (88.6 MPH) and below major league average, (87.0 MPH). Despite this Hicks is slugging at a very high rate. It is extremely unlikely for him to keep up this pace while he takes pitches middle-middle for strikes and makes relatively weak contact.

This does not mean that Hicks is destined for the bench once again. If he maintains his swing rates he is going to continue to get on base at a high rate. A solid outfielder with a plus arm and an 15% walk rate is likely an everyday quality major league player. However, a player with a 53% Z-Swing% is not going to slug .500. Aaron Hicks might be for real, just not the slugger he has been thus far.

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Brett Gardner broke into the major leagues at the age of 24, a late June call-up, who stuck around in the big leagues once he got the call to the show. Gardner played 42 games in his rookie 2008 season, hitting just .228, but stealing 13 bases (in 14 attempts) and flashing enough leather (1.2 dWAR, per baseball-reference) in his limited time that he had positive value for the team.

Gardner played just four games in the minor leagues in 2009, and that was as a rehab stint. Once Gardner made it to the big leagues, he never looked back. In fact, he took off on one of the smoothest career arcs one will find throughout baseball.

*    *    *

Here’s a chart of Brett Gardner’s fWAR by season so far in his career (eliminating his 16-game, injury-plagued 2012 campaign):

Here’s a chart of Brett Gardner’s home runs by season so far in his career (eliminating his 16-game, injury-plagued 2012 campaign):

Here’s a chart of Brett Gardner’s stolen bases by season so far in his career (eliminating his 16-game, injury-plagued 2012 campaign):

That’s about as smooth a career arc as you’re going to find for a player. A perfect rising action, climax, and still-in-progress denouement – Charles Dickens would be proud.

Although this may be the career arc most typically thought of with the standard baseball player (although there has been evidence to the fact that the aging curve may be looking a bit different in the modern era), it’s quite rare that a singular, N=1 player has a career arc this smooth.

Take a look at some of Brett Gardner’s contemporaries.

For this exercise, we’ll consider Gardner’s contemporaries to be players within a 2.0 fWAR range of Gardner since his debut in 2008. Gardner has been worth 25.7 fWAR in that time (again not counting 2012, which we’ll cover in a second), and there have been 11 players within the range of 24.7 to 26.7 fWAR during that time: Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton, Russell Martin, Shane Victorino, Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, Brandon Phillips, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Zimmerman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nelson Cruz. First of all, that’s quite the interesting crew of “contemporaries” for Gardner, as any list that contains both The Might Giancarlo Stanton as well as The Flyin’ Hawaiian Shane Victorino offers plenty of intrigue.

But more relevant to this discussion, here are the career arcs for that veritable Suicide Squad.

None of those look as smooth as Gardner’s career arc. I mean look at Nelson Cruz, he’s almost the inverse. Sure, Brandon Phillips and Ryan Zimmerman may come close to the classic career arc, but those come with the caveat that both players had seasons early in their career with high fWAR totals that would mess up their (relatively) smooth fWAR arcs from 2008-2016 pictured above.

The biggest caveat to Gardner’s career arc is that his 2012 campaign was left out. If the 0.3 fWAR 2012 season was thrown into those graphs above, they’d look a lot less pretty, but even that season was almost just a complete non-season. Gardner only played 16 games, and while that obviously came at a cost to the Yankees, it’s not as if he had a drop in production, like so many of his “contemporaries,” but rather suffered a fluke elbow injury and missed basically the whole season.

Brett Gardner is hardly an unrecognized part of the Yankee community. He’s beloved by most true Yankee fans, and respected around the league. As such, it’s cool that a player like Gardner has the stats that seem to mirror the man himself. Gardner has always been a consistent commodity that the Yankees could rely on, whether on the field or in the community. It’s fitting that such a player would possess such a clean career arc.

Photo: Kim Klement / USA Today Sports

We’ve all heard of the kind of player who improves as the season goes on. Hitters like Adam LaRoche, Ryan Zimmerman, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Mark Teixeira are notoriously slow starters, usually improving significantly after the first couple of months. Naturally, the opposite player has to exist, one who is always getting off to a hot start and falling off as the season progresses. In actuality, examples of that type of player are few and far between. The problem is, players who decline in the second half are generally regression candidates, playing over their heads in the first half before returning to realistic levels. With that in mind, finding a player who continually regresses over his whole career is a challenge. The only clear example of this is Salvador Perez, who tends to hit a wall in the dog days of the summer. The reason behind this isn’t from lack of talent, though. It’s because Perez has been horribly overworked the past couple of years, catching a dizzying 165 games in 2014 and 158 games in 2015 (including the postseason). Perez simply tires, hurting his performance. As it turns out, Perez is a “second-half faller,” but not the type we’re looking for. This type of player is a rare breed, with the distinguished club consisting of just one player, our friend Brett Gardner.

For some reason, Gardner just can’t play well in the second half of the season. This isn’t a new trend either… it’s been going on for much of his career.

So what’s the reason behind this? It really doesn’t make sense. Gardner is in very good shape, so conditioning issues shouldn’t be a factor the same way it would be for a player like Pablo Sandoval. Also, it’s not like the league is adjusting to Gardner throughout the season, finally figuring him out in the second half as he’s been in the major leagues since 2008. If all pitchers needed to do was figure him out, Gardner would have been out of a job by 2012. Finally, it’s not bad luck. Gardner has played 919 games, far too big of a sample size to be affected significantly by luck. So, the only possible answer is injuries.

Oddly enough, it seems that Brett Gardner tends to get hurt in the second half, and that may be impacting his post-All-Star break splits. Here are some of his notable injuries (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’ injury history database):

Not all of Gardner’s injuries have occurred in the second half, but he does show a knack for getting banged up in the latter two thirds of the MLB season. This happens just about every season, and could be the answer to why he can’t hit in the second half. The key is, injuries don’t have to be overly serious to impact performance—often the accumulation of minor bumps and bruises are enough.

• 2015: Gardner only missed two games with a ‘minor wrist injury,’ but absolutely collapsed in the second half, with a 66 wRC+ that was much worse than his 137 wRC+ in the first half. While the injury certainly didn’t seem serious at the time, hitting coach Alan Cockrell said that Gardner was bothered by it “off and on” all year, also receiving cortisone shots to try and beat the effects of the injury.
• 2014: Gardner dealt with an abdominal strain in July, and it cropped up again in September. Gardner said September’s injury had the same kind of pain as the July injury. Abdominal injuries are notorious for lingering, and these two injuries could have impacted his swing, leading to a drop in wRC+ from 122 to 95.
• 2013: Gardner also dealt with an abdominal strain in 2013, but it happened late enough in the season that he didn’t play again that year. Gardner didn’t deal with many other injuries that season, and as a result, his second half wRC+ of 110 was actually better than his first-half performance.
• 2011: Gardner managed to stay relatively healthy throughout the season, but he still had a worse second half, with a 90 wRC+ (versus a 104 wRC+ in the first half). This season was an exception to the injury hypothesis, but the second-half decline may be due to a .286 BABIP, which was 33 points worse than his career .319 BABIP.
• 2010: His 97 wRC+ in the second half was much worse than his 124 wRC+ in the first half, but Gardner didn’t suffer any notable injuries. Once again, BABIP is a factor, with a .360 pre-All Star break BABIP being well above his career average, and a .309 in the second half being below average. Still, I’m losing some faith in the injury idea.
• 2009: Gardner only played 25 games in the second half after suffering a fractured thumb, and was unsuccessful in his return, with a 67 wRC+ that was much worse than his pre-injury mark of 98.

The idea that Gardner’s first half/second half splits were affected by injuries is far from perfect, but has some validity to it. Dealing with injuries more often later in the season have had an impact on his second-half numbers, and without injuries, there’s a good chance Gardner wouldn’t be such a bad second-half player over his career. Gardner is as well conditioned as any Yankee, but his reputation for being a hard-nosed player could easily start to hurt his body as the season drags on. These issues wouldn’t necessarily cost Gardner any time, but could stymie his performance.

The conclusion here is that Gardner may be dealing with bad injury luck in the second half of seasons, and his playing style could also be contributing to second-half decline. There aren’t too many numbers that prove this, but it’s a better explanation than the other possibilities. The league taking half a year to adjust to him every season simply doesn’t make sense, nor does the idea that Gardner hates the summer and just doesn’t hit well when it’s hot out.

In 2016 and beyond, the Yankees might as well expect a continuance in second half declines. Gardner is only getting older, and it’s not very likely that he will be healthier next summer compared to past ones. There’s a chance that Gardner is unscathed through most of the year, but a best case scenario is a bit off a drop off—not as precipitous as 2015’s—in the second half of next year.

Lead photo courtesy of Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Most recently the Bronx Bombers have been linked to Starlin Castro in a trade that could involve Brett Gardner according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. While it’s hard to know how much fire is burning beneath this smoke, it’s the sort of framework that makes some sense with two well-compensated potentially-redundant veterans switching teams.

There would have to be other players involved to make it work, but if you squint you can see it. However, one aspect of the story is both obvious and illogical, the idea of Castro as a second baseman.

As Feinsand explains, “[Starlin] Castro would fill a need for the Yankees at second base, where they currently have a platoon of Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder.”

It is true that the Yankees have an uncertain situation at second base and a shortstop in Didi Gregorius who led the team in WAR in 2015. So it’s clear where the hole is. That doesn’t mean shoving Castro into it is justified.

Over the course of his career Castro has accumulated 106.6 Runs Above Replacement. For a 25-year-old it’s hard to complain about a number like that. However, 38.6 of those runs have been a function of his positional adjustment for being a shortstop. He has racked up 36.2 percent of his value just for standing between third base and second base a bunch of times.

That characterization undoubtedly undersells the difficulty of being a major league shortstop, but if the Yankees pick him up and play him at second they are cutting into his value significantly. For a frame of reference, Robinson Cano has put up only 20.1 runs of positional value in his career, and a durable second baseman is worth only 1.5-2.5 extra runs a year compared to 5.5-7.5 for a shortstop.

A move to second doesn’t change Castro as a ballplayer in a meaningful way, but it would change the lens through which we have to evaluate his value. He has been useful to the Cubs by being approximately a league-average hitter and a competent shortstop. That combination makes you an asset. Being a league-average hitter and a competent second baseman isn’t nearly as impressive.

In theory, the transition to the keystone could improve his ability to make a defensive impact. Converted shortstops like Ryan Goins have become defensive aces at second in the past. That being said, historically Castro’s biggest problem has been sloppiness and lapses in judgement which seem unlikely to change just from lining up at a different spot.

It’s possible to consider Castro something of an upside play offensively, especially considering his age and how strong he was in 2014, but unless he develops significantly more power, he’s going to be fairly BABIP reliant year-to-year. His talent has often been considered to surpass his production, but it’s naive to assume he’d break from his well-established patterns at the plate simply by donning the pinstripes.

In fact, he projects to be a worse hitter than both Refsnyder and Ackley in 2016 according to Steamer.

Castro has tantalizing gifts and a not-unreasonable contract so it’s easy to see why his name is going to be mentioned a great deal this off-season. He’s likely to have a new home soon, but it’s shouldn’t be with the Yankees and it definitely shouldn’t be at second base.

(Photo: Dennis Wierzbecki-USA Today Sports)

He’s also a 31-year-old set to begin his decline phase, and for that reason, he’s recently been the subject of some trade rumors, some of which have him headed to Seattle for a young pitcher.

Cutting ties with Gardner after all these years would sting, but it’s probably the right thing for the Yankees to do. Here’s why:

1. The Yankees should get younger in their starting lineup

Critics have been saying it for more than a decade now, but it’s as true now as ever, if not more so: The Yankees could benefit from some youth in the starting lineup. Of 10 players who received at least 350 plate appearances for New York last season, nine were 30-plus years old. And without a conscious youth movement, that won’t change much. Without a major move, next year’s Opening Day lineup will be even older than 2015’s.

For a while now, the Yankees have defeated Father Time by embracing him: They’ve just kept re-stocking with veterans, using up their final productive years and then repeating the process. But the fall of free agency (this year’s robust class notwithstanding) has made that approach less tenable, and a large chunk of the Yankees’ lineup is tied up for the next several years, meaning the team may have to (further) ride out the declines of Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann. There’s truly no easy path to re-tooling.

Trading Gardner for a prospect or young player will help the youth movement in two ways: 1) It would add to the team’s stable of under-25 assets and 2) It would clear playing time for newly acquired 26-year-old Aaron Hicks or maybe even fellow 26-year-old Jason Heyward.

2. Gardner is one of the few movable veterans on the roster

If the Yankees hope to get younger, they don’t have many options for how to do so. Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Ellsbury have untouchable contracts. Beltran, McCann, and Headley’s deals are perhaps slightly less awful, but trading any of them would require eating a significant chunk of cash.

Gardner, on the other hand, is owed a reasonable $37.5 over three years (plus a $12.5 million team option or $2 million buy-out). The 31-year-old outfielder is one of the only veterans on the team (perhaps along with Andrew Miller) who would fetch a substantial return in a trade.

3. Gardner’s value is not maximized with the Yankees

On many teams, Gardner would play center field and steal 35 bases a year. With the Yankees, he plays left and hovers around 20 stolen bags a season.

Gardner last played center field regularly in 2013, grading out as below average in FRAA and Total Zone and about average in UZR. Though he would not be an elite defender at that position, he could likely handle it capably, which would help teams like Seattle and San Diego that are loaded with corner outfielders but lacking a man in the middle,

Meanwhile, since the Yankees’ lineup is built around home runs, they don’t ask Gardner to steal as many bases as he probably could. A manager with a roster more suited to “small-ball” might encourage Gardner to run more often than he does, thus adding to his value. And the more valuable other teams see Gardner, of course, the more they’ll be willing to fork over in a trade.

4. The Yankees have outfield depth

With or without Gardner, the outfield is not a particular area of need for the Yankees, who have Ellsbury, Beltran, and now Hicks, with prospect Aaron Judge on the way. If Brian Cashman is tempted by free agents Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes, trading Gardner becomes essentially necessary.

If there’s any position at which New York can afford to sacrifice, it’s the outfield, making Gardner more expendable than he would be if he played elsewhere.

5. New York probably won’t make the playoffs in 2016 anyway

Last season, the Yankees got better-than-expected output from just about everyone in the lineup, particularly Teixeira and Rodriguez. The bullpen was as good as could be expected and the rotation held together as well. And despite that almost best-case-scenario overachievement, the team won 87 games, snuck into the Wild-Card Game and promptly lost. Even if last year’s performance is repeatable, it’s not even that desirable.

Cashman would be best served to take a small step backwards in order to move forward. That means dealing Gardner, whose decline has already begun, for someone who will crest in time for the next great Yankee team, in 2017, 2018 or beyond.

Lead photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports