Some players floor us, some make us cringe, and some are ho-hum. Warren falls into the final category as a swingman/middle reliever without a blazing heater or a tantalizing breaking ball, so it’s understandable to have little to no recollection of his season. It doesn’t help that he missed time with shoulder and back maladies, so we watched portions of the season without him even available to play. When healthy, he seems like a fine pitcher, but nothing about him jumps off the page. Yet, this forgettable right-hander delivered an excellent 2.35 ERA in 57 1/3 innings in 2017. It’s not often that a player with a 2.35 ERA can fly under the radar, but it seems like Warren did just that. And yes, I know that reliever ERA can be misleading, with inherited runners and all that. Delving deeper, though, and we find that there’s a strong argument to be made that Warren was the Yankees’ second-best reliever all season. His 2.53 DRA only lagged behind David Robertson’s 2.30.

Not only was Warren great in comparison to his teammates, but he also stacked up remarkably well against the rest of the league. Of all relievers to throw 40 or more innings in 2017, Warren ranked 14th in DRA (If you think 40 innings is arbitrary, Warren drops to 15th at a 10 inning minimum). It was a spectacular season for a blasé pitcher.

The funny thing is that there are a handful of pitchers on this list that are surprising. Who is Trevor Hildenberger? What’s an Alex Claudio? Peter Moylan is still around? Warren’s not all that different than those three. Most others make total sense, like Craig Kimbrel and Andrew Miller.

So, how did Warren do it? Certainly not with overpowering stuff. His run of the mill 93.07 MPH average fastball velocity was steady within his career norms. The thirty-year-old didn’t find a new pitch, either. He did fare better than usual with home runs allowed and BABIP, so perhaps there was a bit of luck involved, but DRA does account for that sort of thing. If BABIP or something else was significantly skewing Warren’s true performance, DRA would tell us as much. Indeed, his DRA was higher than his ERA, but only by 0.18.

What Warren did change was his pitch selection, and quite starkly. Historically, as a reliever, Warren has been a fastball-slider guy that could mix in a curveball or changeup. In 2017, Warren was still a fastball-slider pitcher, though he began to heavily rely on the slider. This isn’t a surprise, as pitching coach Larry Rothschild has emphasized less reliance on the fastball. The slider became Warren’s bread and butter this season and opposing hitters didn’t do much with it (.255 xwOBA and .235 wOBA). Overall, Warren set career bests in strikeout rate (24.2 percent) and average exit velocity (85.3 MPH).  Warren’s not the type of pitcher who can dominate with a fastball, like Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green can, so it made plenty of sense to alter his philosophy. Sure seems like it worked.

Not all adjustments made are noticeable, much like how only certain performances stand out. We notice when a player adds a leg kick to his swing, but a change in repertoire allocation doesn’t always catch our eye (unless your name is Lance McCullers). Perhaps that’s part of the reason why Warren’s excellence was missed. Even though he started relying heavily on his slider, he still looked like the same pitcher with the same stuff. The eye test just doesn’t fall into Warren’s favor, no matter how good the results and underlying stats indicated.

All of this isn’t to say that we let a historical season pass right beneath our feet. Warren’s campaign wasn’t some sort of legendary reliever performance like Mariano Rivera’s 1996 or Eric Gagne’s 2003. And, even though DRA disagrees, I’m fairly confident saying that in addition to Robertson, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle were better than Warren this past season. It’s also fair to doubt if Warren can approach this level performance again next season. Regardless of comparisons or what the future holds, the point is that Warren was unheralded in 2017, and deserves some kudos for a stellar season. Give yourself a pat on the back, Adam, nice job.

Pitch velocity and usage data via Brooks Baseball. xwOBA, wOBA, and exit velocity via Baseball Savant.

Photo Credit: Brad Penner / USA TODAY Sports

All offseason long the Yankees have said that they are more likely to try to improve the team by making a trade rather than a big money free agent signing and so far they don’t appear to be bluffing. New York entered the Winter Meetings having already added outfielder Aaron Hicks from the Minnesota Twins in a trade and the club has avoided any signings beside adding Pete Kozma on a minor league contract.

Acquiring Castro ends anymore talk of the Yankees going with a platoon of Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder at second base and possibly makes the latter available (yes, more trades). Castro, 25, fits the Yankees goal of getting younger and more athletic, but because of the extension he signed with Chicago he’s not exactly cheap. He’s owed $38 million over the next four seasons with a team option for $16 million in 2020 and with no money coming from Chicago in the deal the Yankees will absorb the entirety of the contract. His addition also shows the Yankees reluctance to actually go with a rookie starter like Refsnyder, who turns 25 before next season, as Castro is close in age but is entering his seventh major league season.

Castro is a career .281/.321/.404 hitter with a career .259 TAv. He’s made the all-star team three times in six seasons with the Cubs. Castro was very productive in his first three years in the majors, but has since struggled badly in two of the past three years. In his first three big league seasons, Castro provided 10.4 WARP compared to just 5.1 WARP in his last three seasons. On the bright side, at least Castro had a strong finish in 2015 as he hit .295/.319/.464 in the second half.

Castro was the Cubs regular shortstop for years until the arrival of Addison Russell. He started 29 games at second base for Chicago in 2015. His ability to play shortstop gives the Yankees options when putting together the roster for 2016 as his presence made carrying a backup shortstop like Brendan Ryan unnecessary and likely prompted his inclusion in the deal. Depending on how comfortable the Yankees are with Ackley’s infield defense, he could be the lone backup infielder on the Yankees bench.

The Yankees parted with Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan in the deal. With Warren projected to make $1.5 million in arbitration this year and Ryan locked into a $1 million salary, the Yankees are only adding about $5.3 million to their payroll given Castro’s $7.8 million salary for 2016. $5.3 million is less than what it took for the Detroit Tigers to acquire Francisco Rodriguez, Cameron Maybin, and Mike Pelfrey individually. So the Yankees were able to fill the biggest opening in their lineup without really taking on a major financial commitment.

On the other hand, the Yankees had to give up Warren, which couldn’t have been easy. Warren’s 2.4 WARP in 2015 was higher than Castro’s 1.5 number. He did a remarkable job of filling in wherever the Yankees needed him as he started 17 games and appeared in 43 total games with a 3.43 DRA. While the Yankees had said previously that Warren would enter Spring Training as a starter, without him the rotation includes Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, and Ivan Nova. Like Ryan, Warren was also very well liked in the Yankees clubhouse. Here’s what Alex Rodriguez said about Warren pitching in the playoffs this past season.

(Photo: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports)

Since the All-Star break, Yankee relievers have pitched to a 3.86 ERA. In the last month, the group has a 4.85 ERA and 4.76 FIP. A hefty portion of the relief work has been done by pitchers that spent the year in the minor leagues and it shows. What was once a strength is now largely a group of inexperienced rookies and tired mainstays. The act of starting up the bullpen has been a roll of the dice for Joe Girardi, especially with his starting pitchers not working deep into games. He now gets to do that with the season on the line, and then against the Royals. He’s got his work cut out for him to say the least.

We know for sure that Betances, Warren, Justin Wilson and Andrew Miller will get spots. These are the rest of the candidates:

• Chasen Shreve
• Chris Capuano
• Ivan Nova
• Bryan Mitchell
• Andrew Bailey
• Nick Rumbelow
• Nick Goody
• Branden Pinder
• Caleb Cotham
• James Pazos
• Chris Martin

There’s a chance that Nathan Eovaldi could become healthy enough to be activated at some point, but the Yankees likely won’t want to risk the chance that he won’t be ready for important outings. That means these are the guys from which Girardi must select. I won’t pretend to have inside knowledge to Girardi’s thought process and most of these pitchers have been inside and outside of his fabled Circle of Trust at various times.

The most obvious choice seems to be Rumbelow. When Rumbelow is right, his stuff is electric. In 15.2 innings with the big club, Rumbelow has struck out 22.1 percent of the batters he’s faced, but he’s also walked five and given up two homers. This is a rather small sample, of course, but Rumbelow isn’t the worst option to eat an inning or two if the Yankees have a comfortable lead. That’s five of the spots filled. The recipients of the other two spots will likely not matter very much, as if the last man in the bullpen has to get into a playoff game, the game is likely over or deep into extra innings. The Royals showed us last year that due to the rest days built into the playoff schedule, it’s a bit easier to run the big guns out every time they’re needed.

That won’t matter if the Yankees don’t escape the showdown with the Astros. In the very real scenario in which Masahiro Tanaka serves up a few home runs to the powerful Astros and the Yankees have to get into their bullpen early, how do they piece together the necessary innings? CC Sabathia will probably be available in relief, but Sabathia has allowed a humongous .370 wOBA to right-handed hitters this year. The Astros are made up largely of righty power hitters like Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis and George Springer. Is Luis Severino capable of pitching effectively on short rest? With Dallas Kuechel on the mound for Houston, the Yankees don’t want to have to find out.

(Photos: Adam Hunger-USA Today Sports) 

That doesn’t mean things aren’t stressful this time of year.

“I don’t know what happened over there in Boston,” Brendan Ryan said after a 2-1 loss to Baltimore on Tuesday.

He was quickly informed that the Blue Jays were wrapping up a 5-1 win over the Red Sox, increasing their lead in the AL East to 1 1/2 games.

“Toronto’s winning?” he said. “Ok. Alright. Well, that sucks.”

According to Baseball Prospectus’s playoff odds report, there’s just a 0.7 percent chance the Yankees miss out on the fun this October. It can be difficult to remember in the midst of a late-season push from the Jays.

Toronto has pushed their odds of winning the AL East to 71 percent, and their chances of taking the World Series to 17 percent, good for second in all of baseball.

Injuries to key players like Mark Teixeira, Brett Gardner, and Nathan Eovaldi have left the team’s loyal supporters disheartened. The team doesn’t feel the same way.

In the past few years, late-season call-ups meant very little to the Yankees. The Yankees lacked a big bat off the bench last season, even when they were given extra room on their roster in September. They were able to insert Antoan Richardson as a pinch-runner, but outside of that, there was little value.

This time around, the Yankees have exceptional depth.

Tucked away on the farm were two weapons – Greg Bird and Luis Severino. Tucked away in the bullpen, you’ll find Adam Warren. With Warren stretching out to become a starter, all three will play a large role in helping the team overcome their injuries.

“Look, nobody’s going to feel sorry for us. Everyone has injuries,” Alex Rodriguez said. “One of the great things Cashman’s done is he’s built a very good roster 1-40 here. You look at the job that [Bird]’s done for us it’s been incredible, and obviously [Severino] pitching.

“The other thing is when you have a guy like Adam Warren, I don’t care if we have Adam pitching Game 1, 3, or 7 in the playoffs. I think we’re gonna win that game, that’s how good he is.”

Warren has been a silent assassin for the Yankees this season. In 14 starts, he posted a 3.59 ERA and .665 OPS against. As a reliever, he’s been even more effective, with a 2.43 ERA and 4.71 K/BB.

A-Rod may be on to something about throwing Adam Warren out in a pressure spot come October, too. On the year, hitters are just .210 off of him in 72 high leverage plate appearances.

With Warren and Severino, the Yankees have two exciting options should Eovaldi miss more time than expected. Severino’s 5.0 VORP in just 35 innings is impressive, and his seven hits allowed per nine innings ranks second among rookie starters with at least six starts.

“He’s pretty much lived up to the hype,” said Ryan. “It just looks like he’s having fun, really. He just looks like a kid playing a game. And I love to see that. It’s infectious.”

Though those two arms will be vital to the Yankees’ fall success, Greg Bird may be the most important piece the Yankees have. With Teixeira’s injury lingering, Bird has filled Teixeira’s shoes at first base admirably for a 22-year-old.

His TAv (True Average) of .292 ranks 15th among all rookies with as many PAs (91), and his .805 is certainly nothing to shake a fist at.

The Yankees have depth. They have one of the league’s best bullpens, they have two additions to the rotation that they can trust, and they even have Rob Refsnyder on the bench that they can use in case of emergency.

It’s comforting, and vital, to have depth in the heart of a pennant race. But when your opponent is the Toronto Blue Jays, you take notice.

“It’s definitely that part of year when we’re scoreboard watching,” said Ryan. “But we like this team, and we like each other. It’s an easy clubhouse to come to every day. Positive thinking.”

(Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA Today Sports)

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to understand the Yankees’ decision to essentially stand pat at the trade deadline, especially in contrast to what the Blue Jays did by acquiring David Price, who the Yankees had reported interest in, and Troy Tulowitzki. In the last nine games, New York has played like a team that could use some upgrades. Three areas that stand out are second base (obviously), the bench, and pitching (either starting or relieving).

The Yankees were in talks with the Padres to potentially acquire reliever Craig Kimbrel and second baseman Jedd Gyorko, but a deal never materialized. Despite Gyorko’s hefty and lengthy contract, he would’ve been a fine platoon option with some pop at the keystone. Craig Kimbrel is Craig Kimbrel. He’d be just fine wherever he goes.

While the Yankees pitching has been good, Ivan Nova’s return to the rotation bumped Adam Warren to the bullpen and manager Joe Girardi hasn’t found a way to use Warren effectively out of the bullpen. Last night’s appearance in a tie game in extra innings broke a streak of seven consecutive games Warren entered with a Leverage Index below 1.0 and instead of letting the former starter work multiple innings he was pulled after just one (likely necessitating a roster move for a fresh arm today).

The Yankees can’t afford to keep wasting Warren in low leverage situations. The most egregious recent example came last Saturday when a clearly gassed Nova, who was above his season high pitch count and had allowed three consecutive base runners, faced Justin Smoak with the bases loaded and one out in the sixth inning. It was time to use Warren before the Jays scored in that inning, but he came in after the grand slam with the Yankees already down 4-0.

As Kenny Ducey wrote in his last BP Bronx post, it isn’t time to panic yet. When the team is losing, it’s easy to criticize them for their shortcomings, especially when Ackley and Garrett Jones are the bats coming off the bench in extra innings. Still, the pitching has been very good for the most part and that’s very important. They could use some more runs, though, and that starts with the top of the order making some noise.

(Photo: Andy Marlin-USA Today Sports)