After two blockbuster trades this winter involving their former ace and leadoff hitter, the White Sox have firmly ingratiated themselves as a rebuilding team. Jose Quintana remains a member of the White Sox, but the question is still when rather than if he will be traded. The Yankees have been connected to Quintana for most of the winter leading many to wonder—What would the Yankees have to give up in order add the coveted starter and improve their rotation? First, let’s discuss what makes this southpaw such a valuable trade chip.
Jose Quintana will be 28-years-old on Opening Day and will make $15.8 million over the next two years with $10.5 million club options in 2019 and 2020. Quintana’s current contract is a steal in today’s starting pitcher market. According to data provided by Jeff Euston of Baseball Prospectus, MLB teams paid an average $5.87 million per unit of WARP in 2016. Compare these figures to Quintana’s 2016 season in which he compiled a 4.2 WARP, and he could likely garner an average annual salary north of $20 million were he a free agent.
| Position | Count | Total WARP | Avg WARP | Total Salary | Avg Salary | $/WARP |
| Starting Pitcher | 377 | 336.3 | .89 | $1,975,175,223 | $5,239,192 | $5,873,200 |
(Data Provided by Jeff Euston, Baseball Prospectus)
Consistency is an additional selling point for Quintana. Since 2013 he’s totaled 814 2/3 innings pitched and his ERA during that same period has fallen within the range of 3.20-3.51 each year. Injury and varying performance plague most teams attempting to build a solid starting rotation yet Quintana offers rare reliability.
Quintana is a valuable player for several reasons and it is difficult to forecast the returns for such a player without drawing comparisons to previous deals. Over the past few years, two starting pitchers with similar pedigrees to Quintana have been traded and the prospects that those pitchers have demanded in return can help determine an ideal haul for the Chicago lefty:
David Price to the Tigers
Before the 2014 trade deadline the Tigers acquired David Price from the Rays in exchange for Nick Franklin, Drew Smyly, and Willy Adames. At the time of the trade, Price was and in the middle of his fourth straight season of 200 or more innings pitched. Sound familiar?
Price, however was more of an established ace at that point, as opposed to Quintana who has filled more of a second-starter role during his career. Price won the Cy Young Award in 2013 and made four trips to the All-Star Game. Quintana on the other hand, was named to his first All-Star team last season. The greatest difference between the two lefties is that Price was scheduled to become a free agent after the 2015 season, giving Detroit less than two years of control.
Franklin was the highest ranked prospect in the deal — a utility man with speed and power. However, Franklin struggled in the major leagues before the trade, batting .214 as a Mariner. Smyly had a career ERA in the mid-threes while Adames was only 18 years old and far from the big leagues. Scouts at the time believed that the Rays did not get enough value in return for their ace.
James Shields to the Royals
In 2012 the Tampa Bay Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City in exchange for a prospect package headlined by Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi. While the inclusion of Wade Davis does make comparing this trade to a possible Quintana trade more difficult, the similarities between 2012 Shields and 2016 Quintana are abundant. Shields was 30-years-old at the time of the trade and was known as an innings-eater. Additionally, Shields (like Quintana) rarely overpowered opponents with electric “stuff” as his teammate Price could.
In 2012, Myers was regarded as one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues and had just won the Minor League Player of the Year award. Baseball Prospectus ranked Myers as the 19th overall prospect in baseball. Odorizzi was a hard thrower and former first round pick who Baseball Prospectus ranked as the 47th overall prospect in the sport. Both projectable young players had Rays fans excited for the future of their franchise.
Quintana to the Yankees?
Trades of Price, Shields, and the like have given us a framework for composing a package of prospects that could help the Yankees pry Quintana from the White Sox. The Yankees have an incredibly deep farm system that matches well with some of the White Sox’ needs. For instance, aside from the newly acquired Yoan Moncada, the White Sox’s farm system lacks an impact hitter. Luckily the Bombers can accommodate such a request.
The Yankees and Brian Cashman would likely center a trade for Quintana around a hitter with a high ceiling much like Wil Myers in 2012. Assuming that Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier are off the table in negotiations for Quintana, the Yankees could headline the deal with the versatile Jorge Mateo or Blake Rutherford who has a smooth left-handed swing and loads of upside. Yankees brass loves these players, however, and as we’ve seen highly ranked prospects like Myers and Franklin are usually necessary to land a proven starting pitcher.
Other position players that the Yankees can gauge Chicago’s interest in are Thairo Estrada and Miguel Andujar. Estrada is stuck behind many of the Yankees’ middle infield prospects, but he has already shown the ability to play all over the infield in addition to an advanced approach at the plate. Andujar showed impressive contact skills and emerging power last season. Either of these two prospects would certainly add to Chicago’s current pool.
On the mound the White Sox are abound with minor league talent. However, as in the cases of Odorizzi and Smyly, a projectable pitcher with upside always adds value to a deal. One pitcher that I think would fit very well in a trade of this nature is Albert Abreu. Abreu, who was acquired in the Brian McCann trade, possesses a sinking fastball and an excellent curveball for his age. Adding him to a deal can pique the White Sox’ interest and allow the Yankees to hold on to two pitchers that they hope can help the major-league team in the near future – Justus Sheffield and James Kaprielian.
If the Yankees included Rutherford and Abreu in a proposal for Quintana they would have a very competitive offer compared to other potential offers from around the league. It is natural to be reluctant to give up this type of talent — Rutherford is BP’s No. 49 prospect and Abreu is No. 82 — however, to lure a starting pitcher of Quintana’s caliber the Yankees would need to best the offers of teams like the Astros and Pirates. The Yankees have so much talent in their minor league system that they would not feel depleted after this trade. If they were to strike a deal for Quintana they could slot him in as their second starter for years to come and (ideally) find out what he can do in the postseason.
Photo: Denny Medley / USATSI