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What to make of Aaron Judge’s recent struggles

It is no secret that Aaron Judge is struggling. He is currently slashing .178/.247/.329 through 23 games and has struck out a remarkable 37 times over that span. Gary Sanchez’s record-breaking start allowed Judge’s struggles to go relatively unnoticed. However, with Sanchez coming back down to earth, the right fielder’s slump has  become a greater issue. Some fans have even called for Joe Girardi to bench him. Nonetheless, the Yankees skipper understands the importance of penciling Judge’s name into the lineup on a daily basis.

Should Yankee fans really be worried about Aaron Judge after a mere twenty-three games in the big leagues? The answer is yes and no. According to BaseballSavant, Judge is tied for the fourth-highest average exit velocity and the highest average FB/LD exit velocity in baseball (min. 30 batted balls).

In the new age of technology, exit velocity has increasingly become a useful tool for evaluating hitters. It’s pretty simple: The harder you hit the ball, the more likely you are to get a hit. Judge’s exit velocity is well above the league average, so why is he struggling so much? There is not a black and white answer to this question.

There are a lot of factors including luck and his size. It is well documented that Judge is the size of an NFL tight end, listed at 6’7” and 275 pounds. This enables him to generate enormous power, producing a well-above league average exit velocity. On the other hand, Judge’s size also forces him to deal with a much wider zone and he has had a very hard time covering all that territory. As you can see below, Judge crushes pitches in the strike zone, but struggles to handle pitches outside of the zone. Simply put, pitchers have figured Judge’s weakness out. They are pounding him with pitches down and outside of the strike zone.

According to BaseballSavant, a staggering 52.5% of the pitches Judge has seen in his career have been down and outside of the strike zone. You can see how significantly his average exit velocity and his batting average drops in those two areas of the zone.

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Benching Judge will not help him work through these issues. Girardi and the Yankees are making the right decision by allowing Judge to play every day and work through his growing pains. To some extent, this issue will persist throughout his career due to his large stature. But, with more experience, Judge can improve his understanding of the strike zone and lay off pitches outside of the strike zone, forcing pitchers to challenge him. Give Judge time to adapt. He has a bright future in the Bronx.

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today Sports

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1 comment on “What to make of Aaron Judge’s recent struggles”

mick

With Judge’s poor judgement, he doesn’t need to sit, he needs to be sent to Arizona to work on his pitch recognition. He also needs to learn to make his swing more compact. His swing, although naturally low, does not have to be as long as it is. While I agree this kid has a future, he’s not shown a consistent ability to play the game within himself, offensively. Judge might learn the things outlined above in the ML’s, the problem with that is that it hurts the team, overall, and extends the learning curve for Judge, himself.

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