The Yankees are 4 1/2 games back of the second wild card, and our own Baseball Prospectus playoff odds give them a 3.4 percent chance of making the playoffs, with an even smaller 1.9 percent chance of making it to the division series. Of course, if you ask a fan what the playoff odds of their favorite team are, the answer is always 100 percent (even if the team is already mathematically eliminated). And that’s what we’re here to discuss — do the Yankees actually have a legitimate shot at the postseason?
The short answer is no. And that isn’t a bad thing.
1) It’s important not to set our expectations too high, just to be disappointed. Would you bet on anything in life with a 3.4 percent chance of happening?
2) Keep in mind what this season is about. Especially once Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Beltran, and Andrew Miller were sent packing, it was clear that this season was a transitional year. “Rebuild” may be a strong word for something hopefully short, so let’s use “transitional”. But this season is about the young guys. This season is about developing and seeing what you have in Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Rob Refsnyder, etc.
Not only are the Yankees 5 1/2 games out of the division lead and 3 1/2 out of the wild card, but they’d have to jump four other teams just to hit the second wild card spot, where they’d then have to face the top wild card team on the road. In addition, Baseball Prospectus projects the Yankees to have the worst rest-of-season record in the entire AL East.
But remember that, while playoff odds are just projected records, the Yankees have some form of control over them, depending on how many games they get to play against each team that they’re chasing. It doesn’t matter that the Yankees end the season 44-0 if the teams ahead of them do the same, but a win against a foe in the chase also guarantees that team an important loss.
Crazier things have happened, but I’m going to assume that the Indians (five-game division lead) and the Rangers (5 1/2 up) will be their respective division leaders. That leaves six teams ahead of the Yankees, keeping in mind that one can be the AL East winner, while another can be the top wild card, and still allow for the Yankees to sneak in the second wild card spot. Here are the six teams, along with the number of games left in the schedule that they have against the Yankees.
Blue Jays — 9
Orioles — 9
Red Sox — 7
Tigers — 0
Mariners — 3
Astros — 0
If you’re looking for a ray of hope, here’s where it lies: it helps that three of the teams that the Yankees are chasing happen to be intradivisonal opponents, but 28 games remain with teams ahead of the Yankees in the standings. Another 10 games are on the slate against the last-place Rays and Angels, so that means that 38 of the final 44 games are either race-deciding or favorable matchups. Or, to put it another way, only six games left (one series with the Royals and one with the Dodgers) are ones that aren’t either (relatively) easy wins or wins that would be guaranteed to make up ground in the standings.
Also, if you’re getting overly worried about the BP projected rest-of-season records and playoff odds, keep this in mind. The Yankees have a much different team than they have had for most of the season, and by different, I mean younger. As that linked article shows, younger talent is tougher for the projection systems to predict.
Remember, if these last few paragraphs are getting your expectations up too much, refer back to the points with 1) and 2) headers at the beginning of this article. I always want you to be positive about your team, and I always want you to remain invested and interested in the rest of your team’s season. I just want to make sure that hopefulness isn’t to be confused with expectations.
But yes, I am, saying there’s a chance.
Photo: Andy Marlin / USA Today Sports