Let’s face the truth — the Yankees are in dire straits right now. They’re 5.5 games out of first place, and they’re behind three other teams. Teams like the Mets and the Dodgers face similar deficits in their respective divisions, but the sense of panic is much less urgent because there aren’t any teams separating them from the first place team. Jumping three teams, like what the Yankees have to do, means that a whole lot has to go right. It’s still early in the season; but at the same time, it isn’t, really. Most teams kind of already know what type of talent they have. The Yankees don’t know, and it’s almost becoming now-or-never time. Looking at the wild card race, they’re only three games out of the second wild card spot, but they would have to jump a whopping five teams to achieve that. It’s sort of a catch-22, because the Yankees need a big acquisition to ignite their playoff hopes. However, it’d be foolish to give up promising youngsters for an acquisition in a lost season.
What if there were a potentially impactful addition that would cost nothing to acquire? Well, that scenario is a reality, and his name is Aaron Judge. I’m going to skip a lot of the introduction, because if you’re reading this site, you probably know exactly who he is. To overly simplify and summarize a very complex player, Judge is a big, physical outfielder with huge power and good patience, but also with an inability to fully access his power in-game and a propensity to swing-and-miss.
“B-but…” you stammer, “he may not be ready yet! He hasn’t had a great year in Triple-A and you may stunt his development! Think of the kids!” Most of what you said isn’t entirely incorrect. However, now is the time to bring up Judge and see what he can do with extended at-bats in the major leagues.
Reason #1: It is already past both the extra-year-of-service and super-two arbitration clocks.
Although the super-two clock isn’t as big of an issue for a team with deep pockets like the Yankees, the deadline to ensure an extra year of control is definitely worth monitoring. Remember, six months of a player in his prime is much more valuable than a month of the same player’s rookie season. Still, however, that deadline has thankfully already passed. There are no hidden complications in the decision-making process of whether or not Judge is ready to be called up. It’s all about development and performance right now.
Reason #2: Judge hasn’t been nearly as bad as the popular conception indicates.
The common sentiment around the baseball world is that Aaron Judge has been disappointing this season. And it’s a fact that Judge sports a rather pedestrian .247/.326/.413 slash line. But he hasn’t been nearly the disappointment that it seems upon initial inspection. First of all, he has cut his strikeout rate from last season. The growth has been small, and his K rate still sits at a rather lofty 24.0%, but it is still a step in the right direction. Secondly, Judge split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, and he was so good in Double-A that it made his seasonal stat line look much better last season. However, he actually had quite a bit of a struggle in his first taste of Triple-A, and his OPS of .739 this season represents an upgrade on last year’s .680 mark. Finally, Triple-A is the first time that Judge hasn’t been showered with fortune from the BABIP gods. In the lower minors, Judge routinely experienced BABIPs near or at .400, and while much of that probably had to do with the fact that he was hitting the ball harder, BABIPs that high were probably unsustainable in the long run, especially at the major league level. However, for a player as big and strong as Judge is, the .297 mark that he’s experienced this season has a good chance of seeing upward growth.
Reason #3: He’s heating up at just the right time.
After posting an acceptable OPS of .779 in April, Judge slumped miserably in May, trudging along to the tune of a .598 OPS. However, Judge’s bat has warmed up with the weather as the calendar has switched to a summer month. In June so far, he’s notched a .318/.455/.523 slash line with as many walks as strikeouts, en route to a .977 OPS. Why waste this hot stretch in the minors when he can potentially be doing so for the big club?
Reason #4: A 50th percentile expectation for Judge will likely improve the Yankees.
There is a reason that he’s considered one of the Yankees’ top prospects — because he has the potential to be very good. (Duh.) Equipped with decent speed, especially for his 6’7 frame, and a cannon for an arm, he has the makings of a potentially solid to above-average right fielder. This will allow Carlos Beltran to slide into the DH spot full-time. There’s also a good chance that Judge can improve upon Alex Rodriguez’s production, or lack thereof, including his .259 on-base percentage. Therefore, this move would represent a two-fold improvement for the Yankees. It would improve both the offensive margin from Rodriguez to Judge and the defensive margin from Beltran in right field to Judge.
Reason #5: There really is no obvious downside.
This ties in with the intro to this article. The current state of the Yankees is cratering towards mediocrity very quickly. What are the two potential scenarios if the front office calls up Judge? Either he succeeds immediately, in which case, yay; or, more likely, he experiences rough patches, in which case, yay. If he succeeds right away, then he helps the Yankees get back into contention, providing exactly what you would want out of a potential acquisition. If he struggles right away and the Yankees continue to slide in the win-loss department, then what exactly should a team in this position do? They should rebuild, look towards the future, and give their valuable playing time to youngsters for development. And that’s exactly what they’d already be doing with Judge. If he has troubles with his first taste of MLB pitching, then there’s a good chance that he was always bound to struggle in his first major league experience, no matter how much seasoning he got in Triple-A. The quality of pitching down there just isn’t the same. Also, I’m a firm believer that the theory of “stunting a player’s development because of struggles” has everything to do with the player, on an individual basis and dependent on his attitude and mindset. Judge struggled in his first go-around of Triple-A last year, and as mentioned above, he’s bounced back this season, showing small trends of growth. If Judge were always bound to scuffle in his initial MLB trial, then it makes sense for it to happen sooner rather than later. Besides, there’s almost no chance that he’s as unproductive as the mess that the Yankees have experienced at first base and DH so far in 2016.
So, please, let the (Aaron) Judgement begin.
Photo: Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports