The Yankees’ farm system recently rated in the middle of the pack according to Baseball Prospectus’ annual organizational rankings. The team undeniably has accumulated a lot of talent over the past few years, but much of it is in the lower levels of the system or has been derailed by injuries. Aside from the ‘Big Four’ of Aaron Judge, Jorge Mateo, Gary Sanchez, and James Kaprielian, there is a whole lot of uncertainty. Several of New York’s key prospects enter 2016 needing to re-establish themselves as healthy and effective if they want to remain in the club’s plans for the future. Here’s a look at what they’ll need to do to take the next step forward.
Pitchers
Ian Clarkin – Despite accumulating only 104 ⅔ professional innings over the last three seasons, Clarkin has somehow managed to appear on BP’s top ten Yankees’ prospects list every year since he was one of New York’s three first-round picks in 2013. He was shut down for the entire 2015 season with elbow inflammation before making six starts in the Arizona Fall League. His control was predictably rusty after missing more than a year (14 BB in 24 ⅔ IP), but just getting onto a mound and showing he was healthy was an important step. The fact that he managed to avoid surgery is encouraging, but he will need to put together something resembling a full season in 2016 to maintain his prospect luster. Still just 21, Clarkin is seen as a potential quick mover with a mid-rotation ceiling because of his strong command and three potential plus pitches.
Jacob Lindgren – After a rough spring that saw him demoted in the first round of roster cuts, “The Strikeout Factory” now appears set to begin the season in High-A Tampa. That’s a considerable setback for a guy many fans saw as a front-runner for an Opening Day bullpen job. This could be a sign of serious concern about Lindgren’s control issues. While his 2.18 ERA and 14.3 K/9 in two professional seasons are undeniably impressive, he has also given up an ugly 27 walks in 54 innings. With an extremely crowded bullpen picture in the upper-minors, the organization could just be taking the opportunity to let Lindgren come back slowly from the elbow injury that sidelined him much of the second half last year. However, with so many live arms now seemingly ahead of him on the depth chart, a strong 2016 will be necessary to avoid getting lost in the shuffle.
Vicente Campos – As recently as 2013 Campos was ranked by BP as one of the top ten talents in the Yankee system. Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2014 and a 7.05 ERA in 11 starts for High-A Tampa in 2015 have kept him more or less out of the public eye, but the team liked him enough to add him to the 40 man roster this winter rather than risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft. While his injury history and age suggest he may be best served by a move to the bullpen, Brian Cashman said prior to spring training that the plan for now is to keep him as a starter. Given that he’s never approached 100 innings during his six minor league seasons, that may just be asking for trouble, but there’s no denying that is where he’d be most valuable to the organization.
Position Players
Rob Refsnyder – For the third season in a row, the Yankees have gone out of their way not to give Refsnyder a major league job. Despite being ranked No. 6 in the team’s system by BP in back to back years and accumulating nearly 8 WARP in the upper-minors the last two seasons, Refsnyder will begin 2016 in the familiar confines of Scranton Wilkes-Barre. PECOTA sees him as a league average bat (.273 TAv) in the majors if New York’s brass can find a place to play him. The development of his defense at third and/or second this season will determine if he will see the big show anytime soon. At 25, he is only a season or two away from being labeled a Quad-A player.
Slade Heathcott – In his eight years in New York’s minor league system, Heathcott has played 100 games in a season just once. All the same, his intriguing blend of speed, power, and defense keeps him on the fringes of prospect-hood. He finally made his major league debut in 2015, before the inevitable injury came after just six games. He did return in September to slug a game-winning, three-run homer the ninth inning of one of the more memorable wins of the year. All in all it was another disappointing season in a long line of them for Heathcott. With Aaron Hicks, Mason Williams, Ben Gamel, Lane Adams and Aaron Judge competing with him as outfielders of the future, this may be his last opportunity with the Yanks before they decide his roster spot is better used on a safer bet. He’ll be hard pressed to keep a starting job with the RailRiders in 2016 if he doesn’t perform, let alone a role in the big leagues.
Kyle Holder – It seems strange to say a first round pick from just last year is already facing a make or break season, but it may be true for Holder. He posted an ugly .206 TAv in 250 plate appearances for Short Season Staten Island after being taken 30th overall in the 2015 draft. While he was widely considered the best defensive player available in the draft, his bat thus far looks like it won’t even play as a Brendan Ryan-esque utility infielder. His bat speed and pitch recognition are both well below average, and doesn’t offer anything in the power or speed department either. If his bat progresses, there is time for him to become a useful player, but as a supposedly polished college prospect, that looks pretty far off.
Lead photo: Jacob Lindgren (Credit: Butch Dill/USA Today Sports)
ok so 3 of each?
Gotta say Clarkin and Holder are too young to have “make or break” seasons. No matter what happens if they’re healthy in 2017 they’ll have baseball jobs. To be on the cut line you have to be up against 40-man roster concerns. Lindgren might have been on the cusp of hodling down a roster spot but is still just 23 too.
Also Refsnyder was not on the 40-man in 2014, an often cited explanation why the then 23 year old wasn’t called up. As such, he still has an option year in 2017 available. The guy started a 2015 playoff game I think it’s a little much to say he’s on his way out of the 40-man if he doesn’t have a good year in 2016.
I’d call out some guys who really need to get over the 40-man hump this year to get their careers going: Mark Montgomery, Lane Adams, and Jake Cave. Another pitcher to consider is Branden Pinder who’s on the 40-man for the second year but seems unable to break out of the shuttle role despite some strong performances everywhere he’s been in recent years.
The yankees seem like good trade partners for a rebuilding team. In case of injuries to Yankee regulars, guys like Erick Aybar, Alexi Ogando, Carlos Ruiz, Jeremy Hellickson, and Jeremy Jeffress aught to be obtainable for some of these fringe players. Usually the yankees lack upper level prospects. Combined with some financial flexibility, there’s really more depth in this year’s team than even shows up on the roster!
You’re right that the team certainly wouldn’t give up on Clarkin or Holder after another down season. I meant more that Holder will need to hit this year and Clarkin will need to stay healthy if they are going to continue to be regarded as serious prospects. Either way they’ll stay in the system for the time being, but it’s a “make or break” in terms of perception and prospect status. Same goes for Refsnyder. He’s running out of time to establish himself as a potential MLB starter. 26 will be a little old for Triple-A in 2017. That’s drifting into Austin Romine territory.
The oft injured Slade Heathcott is ready. When called on last season, he showed up. The kid is a top notch defender, who has basically all five tools. Given his opportunity last season, Heathcott went out and performed, both before and after, his injury. How did the Yanks repay him? They traded a starting catcher for a backup outfielder. Ridiculous. The sad part is that Heathcott hits lefties better than he hits right handers, albeit a small difference. He’s also the as good as any OF defender in the system. Before trading Murphy, the Yanks should’ve used their depth in the minors. Gamel is ready, Heathcott is ready. These kids will play somewhere in the next season or two, unfortunately, not as Yankees.
What we obviously need most is a big bat. Teixera looks god for another season or so, but then what do we do with Bird; we still need Tex for his bat and exceptional defense. Sadly, beltran has pretty much outworn his usefulness because of age and injury; wish we had had him ten years ago. ARod a sure hall of Famer if the egotistical writers can get past their assumption moral high ground which they themselves might-probably don’t merit. (They seem more like lackeys of baseball owners who themselves seem to deserve a rating just barely above Jack the Ripper or Bin Laden; why does the word “hypocrite” run through my mind here?) Would any of them refuse to avail themselves of some use-of-language advantage (like a patent on certain words), if one existed? ……….. Wish I could find a better analogy, but I’m not a professional author, am I? (The answer to THAT one is obvious, no?)
Anyway, can it be denied that Bonds and ARod ….and Shoeless Joe ….. have done more to polish the image of Baseball than O”Malley and Saigh and Comiskey?