A-Rod and the Quest for 762

The all-time home run record is not one that changes hands very often. For all intents and purposes, only three guys in baseball’s century-plus existence have ever laid claim to it. Babe Ruth held the record for nearly four decades, and Hank Aaron held it for another three before Barry Bonds passed him in 2007. Yet despite how few players even get close, every half-decade or so there seems to come along a player that captures the collective imagination of baseball fans, a player that we deem the next imminent threat to baseball’s Holy Grail.

In the last twenty years we’ve seen Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, and most recently Mike Trout serve as the Neos in our baseball Matrix. We almost only ever hand out that kind of designation during a player’s 20s, while we can still gloss over the circumstances that will likely cloud the end of his career. By the time we’re better able to see what those circumstances might be, the shine is often long gone. Griffey loses a decade to injuries. A-Rod loses a year to suspension. Pujols simply loses his magic.

Two years ago, no one’s circumstances seemed clearer than A-Rod’s. He was 38-years-old and more than 100 home runs away from the record. His body had begun to break down, requiring surgeries on both hips within a four-year span. He hadn’t hit more than 20 homers in a season since 2010, hadn’t played in more than 138 games since 2007 and was worth less than one WARP for the first time since he was a teenager. He was also about to serve the longest PED suspension in history. Even if he attempted to come back after the punishment, it was almost assured that the great A-Rod, the once-future home run king, was gone for good.

Amazingly though, he wasn’t. He defied the odds and made the team, then the starting lineup. He played in 151 games and hit better than he had in five years, cracking 33 homers and passing Willie Mays on the all-time list. He turned in one of the most improbable seasons in history as a 39-year-old coming off a year’s layoff. Now just 75 homers shy of Bonds’ 762, A-Rod’s circumstances have changed.

Last week Rodriguez announced his plan to retire after the 2017 season. Although he later walked back those intentions a bit, we now have a fairly definitive timeframe in which to examine his chances of making history. Let’s see just how close we can get him to number 762 before that clock runs out.

_ _ _

A-Rod Home Run Count: 687

The logical first step in setting a baseline for the next two seasons is to check the projections. PECOTA sees A-Rod hitting 22 homers this year in 579 plate appearances. It only sees him hitting 15 more in 431 PAs next year. That…doesn’t even get him halfway to Bonds. Thanks a lot, PECOTA.

A-Rod Home Run Count: 724

If you’re interested in the likely outcome, then that’s it. My work is done. Stop reading.

If you’re interested in exploring what the unlikely might look like, though, then come. Follow me down the trail of asinine assumptions.

A-Rod had 620 PAs last year. Coming into 2015 with a full year’s rest was surely a major reason for that, and it’s a luxury that he won’t have in either of his final two seasons. He also made a transition to full-time DH though, and that is something that could conceivably keep him healthier as he enters his 40s. With Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira likely departing after this year, as well as the Yankees’ sudden reluctance to spend in free agency, there isn’t an obvious challenger for his at-bats. With that in mind, let’s grant asinine assumption #1 and let him retain all of 2015’s good health fortune and full slate of playing time. He gets to the plate 620 times in each of the next two seasons, netting him an extra nine dingers.

A-Rod Home Run Count: 733

The next step is seeing what more we can squeeze out of those PAs. He’ll have to beat his projection, but how far can we push it without entering video game territory? Here’s the high-end of what PECOTA deems reasonable from him in 2016.

Even if we assume he performs at the upper echelon of his projection, that only adds another two homers to his total. That’s just not going to cut it.

What are the chances that A-Rod torches PECOTA completely? Like he did, well…last year, for instance? A year ago PECOTA pegged Alex for ten homers in 310 PAs, a projection he beat before the All-Star Break. Can he do it again? Last week Nick Ashbourne examined the likelihood of A-Rod setting a new home run benchmark for players over 40. As he noted in that piece, 40 is a historically troublesome age for power production, with Darrell Evans the only player in history to even hit more than 30 bombs.

It’s interesting to note that many of these players’ lower raw home run totals can be chalked up to limited playing time. There are quite a few players who maintained very strong power numbers, the kind A-Rod exhibited last year, on a rate basis.

Evans, for example, hit homers even more frequently at age 40 than he did at 39. His 1987 season also happens to show up ninth on A-Rod’s Comparable Player list for this year. So there is at least some precedent for a player maintaining a strong home run rate into his 40s, and since we already conceded that PAs won’t be an issue for him, we arrive at asinine assumption #2: A-Rod maintains the same kind of rate power he displayed last year and puts regression off until 2017 (18.8 PA/HR this season, 22 PA/HR next). Just like that, we’ve added approximately 15 more homers to his ledger.

A-Rod Home Run Count: 745

Our engine is beginning to sputter. We’ve stretched ourselves wafer-thin and are still short of Bonds by 17 slams. We’re just ten away from Hammerin’ Hank though, the O.G. home run king that A-Rod was prophesied to dethrone in the first place. He would make a fine consolation prize if we could somehow dig a few more taters out from beneath the couch cushions. But how? We’ve already manipulated playing time. We’ve staved off regression. The only remaining option? Go full Ibanez.

In 2013, a 41-year-old Raul Ibanez made the decision to completely sell out for power. He swung to destroy, posting the highest marks of his career in fly-ball and pull percentage, cranking 29 homers for the Mariners in just under 500 PAs. The drawback to his approach was that his strikeout rate took off like the Apollo 11. Despite tying Ted Williams for the most homers in history by a 41-year-old, he was worth just 1.5 WARP.

We’re not interested in maximizing overall value though, we’re only interested in maximizing souvenirs. So here’s the last ditch effort. Asinine assumption #3: A-Rod goes for broke. He puts more balls in the air than on the ground for the first time in almost a decade. His strikeout rate climbs above 30 percent in the process, his batting average tanks and he’s a replacement level player; a tradeoff that gets his PA/HR rate to an Ibanez-esque 17.2 over the next two seasons.

A-Rod Home Run Count: 756

Whew.

If this article does nothing else, I hope it helps demonstrate just how far the climb to 762 actually is. We’ve granted A-Rod way more amnesty than he’s likely to actually get and still just barely nudged him into second place. Assuming he doesn’t decide to return in 2018, Ruth is clearly the most, and maybe the only, realistic goal. To climb the next couple of rungs would take something truly extraordinary. Then again, A-Rod has made a habit out of that kind of thing.

Lead photo: Kim Klement / USA Today Sports