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The Refsnyder Experiment

With Opening Day less than two weeks away, it has become apparent that Rob Refsnyder is the front-runner to back-up second and third base for the Yankees (barring something calamitous, of course). Sure, Pete Kozma and Ronald Torreyes are still in camp, but Refsnyder is the only one who’s hitting, and he’s been getting extra work in with the coaches at the hot corner. The soon-to-be 25-year-old has little left to prove in the minors offensively, and, given the whimper that the team’s offense went out with last season, it makes sense to have as much hitting on the bench as possible. Of course, that has never been what held him back.

It seems passé to pick on Refsnyder’s shortcomings, as that is the same song and dance that we have heard for the past sixteen months or so. Drafted as an outfielder, Refsnyder was moved to the keystone in 2013 – and that’s the only position that he played until this Spring. Reviews on his defense once he reached the show were mixed (at best), and as recently as this off-season, folks were certain that he was limited to second base due to his mechanical actions and subpar arm strength. Refsnyder seemed to have improved enough to be at least competent defensively, but his bat would have to carry his glove were he to garner legitimate playing time with the Yankees.

For quite some time, the team was adamant that Refsnyder was a second baseman, and only a second baseman; whether this was a ploy to inflate his trade value or a genuine organizational belief remains to be seen. This spring, however, opportunity knocked at the hot corner as the team suggested that Starlin Castro would somehow start at second (a position that he is still learning), while also backing up shortstop and third base (another position that he would have to learn). Thankfully, the Yankees punted on this notion fairly quickly. And so here we are.

While it is a bit too early to discern whether Refsnyder can be an adequate defender at the hot corner, the early reports are fairly optimistic. And, given the other options, he would only need to be something more than embarrassing in order to be the clear-cut best choice for the role. ZiPS (.248/.318/.395, 95 wRC+), Steamer (.268/.334/.408, 104 wRC+), and PECOTA (.262/.340/.419, 107 wRC+) all see him as a league-average-ish hitter right now, and there’s more than a bit of upside, to boot.

All that being said, this transition still feels a bit strange when taken at face value. We all know that third base is a position that demands quick reactions and a strong arm, and we all know (or thought) that that was precisely what Refsnyder lacked. And the precedent for a player shifting from second to third is rather limited, particularly when you are looking for players that aren’t limited to bench roles. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t a few comparisons to be made, though.

Brett Lawrie of the White Sox split time between catcher and third base in high school, but was moved to second base when he made his professional debut due to his inconsistent throwing mechanics. His arm strength was not detrimental, though it was thought to be average at best – but it was inaccurate, and he had a tendency to sail his throws. He exclusively played second base for his first two professional seasons, where the reviews were mostly uninspiring. Lawrie moved back to third base in 2011, and that has been his home since — and he has been at least average there for most of his MLB career.

Former Yankee Martin Prado began his career as a second baseman, spending the vast majority of his time there for the first three years of his professional career, before shifting into the utility role that he is known for today in 2006. The reason that Prado was moved, however, seems to be that his skill set actually fit third base a bit better than second — his arm was always a tick above-average, and his range was more in the fringe average range.

The recently retired Chone Figgins breaks the mold a bit, as he started out as a shortstop; however, he moved to second base due to inconsistency and a lack of arm strength. He didn’t play a single game at third base until his fifth professional season, and it wasn’t until 2004 (his eighth season) that he played more than a few innings there. And third base ended up being his best position, where he became an excellent defender.

The unofficially retired Placido Polanco was drafted as a shortstop, but moved to second base in short order due to a fringe-y and erratic arm. He split his first five professional seasons between second and short (about two-thirds of his innings came at the keystone), and didn’t see real time at the hot corner until his seventh season. Once in the Majors, he mostly split his time between second and third, performing quite well at both throughout his career.

It is interesting to see Prado and Polanco pop up here, as I believe that Refsnyder has a similar profile. He walks and strikes out more than both (albeit without much big-league exposure), but all three fit the ‘pesky hitter’ mold, working deep counts and driving the ball to all fields. And all three have a bit more pop than one might suspect (Polanco averaged 9 HR per 162 for his career, and Prado sits at 13). I could certainly see Refsnyder batting around .280 and flirting with double-digit home runs with enough playing time.

While it is difficult to compare Refsnyder to any of these individuals, if only due to a lack of a real sample size for his part, I do feel that this is encouraging. All of these individuals had question marks about their gloves, and all ended up as at least passable defenders. Hindsight may make us wonder why there was ever such a worry — particularly with Figgins and Polanco — but that does not change the fact that these players overcame very real issues in becoming quality major leaguers. And it does not seem so far-fetched that Refsnyder could do the same.

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1 comment on “The Refsnyder Experiment”

Andrew

I would have to agree with everything except the expected power output. After seeing ref CRUSH that home run last year, i think he has potetnial to flirt with 20 per 162games. Throw in 30 doubles or so and you have a pretty good utility player even if he’s average to below average at each of the positions.

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