Happy PECOTA day!
By the end of Tuesday, all of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections will be released. The AL East is not quite finished yet, but we do have a finished preview of the Yankeees’ season.
New York is expected to go 85–77, staying competitive with the Blue Jays and Red Sox, but Holy Moses—look at the Rays!
Tampa Bay is expected to lay waste to the rest of the division with some stout defense (57.8 FRAA).
As for the Yankees, the algorithm expects decent offense (.261 TAv), with above-average defense. In what is considered a rebuilding year of sorts, the team will deal with middling offensive production as their fielding improves.
Here’s how the team’s starting lineup is expected to fare (in no particular order).
Brett Gardner: .256/.329/.389, 12 HR, 56 RBIs
Jacoby Ellsbury: .274/.330/.413, 15 HR, 61 RBIs
Starlin Castro: .274/.313/.411, 11 HR, 51 RBIs
Alex Rodriguez: .243/.333/.416, 22 HR, 74 RBIs
Mark Teixeira: .236/.328/.452, 27 HR, 79 RBIs
Brian McCann: .243/.315/.436, 26 HR, 80 RBIs
Carlos Beltran: .258/.322/.445, 20 HR, 70 RBIs
Chase Headley: .258/.340/.405, 15 HR, 63 RBIs
Didi Gregorius: .253/.309/.379, 11 HR, 55 RBIs
They could do worse than four 20-homer seasons, though some of those on-base percentages aren’t so attractive.
It’s important to note that PECOTA can be wrong; it hated the champion Royals last season, and it hates them again this season. 85 wins seems like a somewhat generous, yet realistic, projection for New York.
Lead photo: Adam Hunger / USA Today Sports