Ranking potential offseason targets

Projecting offseason free agent targets is always an arduous task, because price tags will fluctuate over the winter, and needs will change unexpectedly. Keeping that in mind, there is a decent crop of players that the Yankees could sensibly choose from.

I am arriving fashionably late to the party. We have already broken down the Yankees’ outfield payroll, and need for pitching and a second baseman. Those seem to be the glaring needs, with an outside chance of a trade opening up a spot in the outfield. The Yankees are set at first base with Mark Teixeira (and Greg Bird, who will return to the bench or AAA), the left side of the infield with Didi Gregorius and Chase Headley, and behind the plate with Brian McCann. Not much will really change on offense or defense. Nor should it! The Yankees scored 4.72 runs per game last season, good for second in all of baseball.

With the state of the team in mind, let’s rank some potential signings.

1. Ben Zobrist, 2B, Age 34

Zobrist is aging, entering his age-35 season, but he was clearly Brian Cashman’s top target last year. The A’s wanted Adam Warren and Rob Refsnyder, which definitely wasn’t worth it at the time. He may have made the AL East race competitive, but he ultimately wasn’t making the Yankees better than the Royals or Blue Jays.

Look at Zobrist’s WARP totals since 2009:

While his glove has slightly declined in performance, he’s long been a model of consistency on offense. He’s also a switch hitter, and Brian Cashman loves switch hitters. It could be a perfect fit on a two or three year deal. Refsnyder might be the long-term solution, but he’s likely not the immediate one.

2. Chris Young, RHP, Age 36

You’re probably going to chuckle. OK, you chuckled. Any time you have the chance to unite both Chris Youngs, you do it! Sign both Youngs.

In seriousness, I think this is quietly makes sense for the Yankees. They’ve been known to go after starters/long relievers with many miles on them (Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia), and this is yet another that could pay dividends.

Young wasn’t really expected to hold up like he did last year, and not only did he post a solid 3.55 DRA and .236 TAv against, but he proved to be a key component to a World Series champion. With seven legitimate starting pitching candidates, Young assuredly won’t become the No. 3 guy in the Yankees’ rotation. What he’ll be, though, is a nice one-to-two inning guy to help patch the bridge to Betances and Miller, and a needed righty.

It’s a one-year, low-cost option to bolster bullpen strength. And, as an added bonus, he can make some spot starts if they’re desperate.

3. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Age 32

Kendrick is a watered-down Ben Zobrist from a WARP and money standpoint, but pretty comparable. He’s going to hit for average, and he’s been durable over the past few years. That may be all the Yankees need at second base. The one area he may not fit in is with plate discipline. Unlike every other bat in the lineup, he’s a big pitch-chaser, with an outside-the-zone swing rate of 35 percent.

Still, he should be the next place the Yankees look after Zobrist. If it’s not Kendrick, it might be Daniel Murphy or Asdrubal Cabrera. If you get to that point, maybe you just stick it out with Refsnyder.

4. Mike Leake, RHP, Age 28

The Yankees probably aren’t going to land Price or Greinke, but if they want a starting arm, this may be where they turn.

Leake is sturdy, and fairly young. His DRA last year between Cincinnati and San Francisco was actually considerably lower than his career mark of 4.42, so perhaps he figured out something. The Yankees traded for Nate Eovaldi, a young arm with potential last year, and by the end of the year he looked like he had at least No. 2 potential. Leake is older than Eovaldi, but maybe they think he is this year’s Eovaldi-type project. Even if they don’t transform him, he’s still a consistently average starting pitcher that can be of use.

5. Justin Upton, OF, Age 28

The Yankees need a right-handed power bat, end of discussion. A-Rod is all alone in the middle of the order as the only righty with home run potential, and while he’s coming off an incredible season, he faded towards the end. You need someone else.

Upton is just the guy. He might cost less than Cespedes, though he’ll still be pricey, and he’s two years younger. If the Yankees open up a spot for Upton in the outfield, he’ll step right in and hit close to 30 home runs in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

His TAv has only dipped below .290 once since 2010, and he’s coming off a down year in which he still drove in 16.4 percent of all runners he saw on second base. That’s valuable, and it’s a higher mark than names like Nelson Cruz, Bryce Harper and Robinson Cano. There’s a need, there’s potential for a great fit, and it could come at a fair price. The Yankees may want to look this way.

Of course, this is just a short list, and other names will come up in discussion. If the Yankees want to spend, they could come away with Greinke and Cespedes. If they want to wait until Mark Teixeira’s contract is up before they spend money, they could wind up giving one-year deals to both Chris Youngs and Stephen Drew.

(Photo: Jeff Curry-USA Today Sports)