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Evaluating Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada’s Hall of Fame chances

Last week I looked at the Hall of Fame chances for members of the 2015 Yankees and identified several current players who appear perched on the Cooperstown borderline. Meanwhile, this weekend shone a spotlight on a pair of retired Yankees whose career numbers also put them at the Hall’s doorstep: Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte.

Pettitte and Posada, half of the so-called Core Four (sorry, Bernie!) had their respective numbers retired, with plaques in Monument Park to top off the celebrations.

The only greater honor, of course, is induction into Cooperstown.

Here are Posada and Pettitte’s Hall of Fame prospects.

Jorge Posada

Asked about his Hall of Fame chances on Saturday’s YES Network broadcast, Posada said he had been told he was “borderline.” I think that was generous.

If you look at raw offensive numbers, Posada has a solid case. Here’s where he ranks on the all-time leaderboard among catchers (min. 5,000 plate appearances):

  • Home runs – 8th
  • RBIs – 11th
  • Runs – 12th
  • Doubles – 8th
  • Batting average – 34th
  • OBP – 9th
  • Slugging – 8th
  • OPS – 5th

That’s pretty good! Fifth all-time among catchers in OPS (behind Mike Piazza, Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey and Gabby Hartnett) is nothing to scoff at. But if we use a stat that factors the high-offense era and hitter-friendly park Posada played in, he drops a bit, down to 12th in wRC+ and 13th in OPS+.

Those numbers would be enough to qualify Posada for the Hall if he were great behind the plate, but both statistical and anecdotal evidence suggest defense wasn’t his strong suit. He never won a Gold Glove and comes in below league average over the course of his career in Total Zone runs and UZR (but not FRAA, for what it’s worth).

That leaves Posada 18th among catchers in bWAR and 16th in fWAR. Behind non-Hall of Famers Ted Simmons, Bill Freehan and Gene Tenace. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, which weighs career and peak value, ranks Posada 16th at his position, before the aforementioned trio and also Thurman Munson.

The playoffs can’t save Posada either, as he hit only .248/.358/.387 (substantially below his career line) in 492 postseason plate appearances. Maybe he’ll hang around the Hall of Fame ballot, but he can’t expect to do better than that.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Unlikely

Andy Pettitte

Pettitte’s Hall of Fame case is a conversion of four major dilemmas for 21st-century Hall voters: 1) How to evaluate statistics from one of the highest-offense eras in baseball history. 2) How much to value postseason performance in the wake of expanded playoffs. 3) How to handle PED-users of all varieties.

The first question is also the easiest. Pettitte’s ERA (3.85) would be the highest in the Hall, but very few Hall of Famers pitched in conditions like the Yankees lefty did, with small ballparks, big strike zones and bigger batters. Pettitte’s 117 ERA+ isn’t stellar but is better than many hurlers with plaques in Cooperstown.

As for the postseason, there’s no question Pettitte deserves a boost for his October performance. Over 276.2 playoff innings, he posted a 3.81 ERA, with countless marquee moments mixed in.

A career 117 ERA+ over more than 3,300 innings pitched plus a great postseason resume (and 256 wins, for the old-school voters) should be enough to put Pettitte at least on the Hall borderline… except for that pesky PED situation.

Pettitte has generally gotten a pass for his admission that he used human growth hormone once in 2002 and again in 2004. But given some Hall voters’ hardline stance on PED-users he’s sure to lose at least a few votes.

With superior pitchers Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling struggling to make headway on the Hall ballot, Pettitte needs all the help he can get, and that HGH complication doesn’t help.

Maybe one day No. 46 will be in Cooperstown in addition to Monument Park, but it won’t be easy for him to get there.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Unlikely

(Photo: Kathy Willens-USA Today Sports)

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1 comment on “Evaluating Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada’s Hall of Fame chances”

Evan3457

I would agree with both assessments. Much as I admire Andy and Jorge, they’re both “just misses” with regards to the Hall of Fame.
They’ll have to settle for a retired number and a plaque in Monument Park, I think.

Oh, and 5 rings each. 6 if you count the gift rings from over the weekend.

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