MLB: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

There’s Something About Mark

Mark Teixera has an ugly swing. I don’t mean to offend, but in my eyes, his swing is not aesthetically pleasing to watch. Coaches typically instruct hitters to keep a level shoulder plane to avoid dropping the back shoulder and swinging up at the ball. Mark Teixeira hails from the Fat Joe school of hitting; he leans back, drops his shoulder, and swings up at the ball, in three discrete motions. Left-handed swings usually seem more smooth and fluid than right-handed ones, but from both sides Mark Teixeira swing is uncomfortable and robotic.

That being said, Mark Teixeira has the perfect swing for Yankee Stadium. He doesn’t keep his bat in the zone long, but his uppercut is built to do damage when he makes contact. He’s been Tex-messaging the short porch in right field since he signed with the Yankees in 2009. Sure, his swing isn’t as gorgeous as Griffey’s, and his uppercut creates a good deal of roll-over ground balls, but it’s hard to find a swing better suited for a ballpark than Teixeira in Yankee Stadium.

After a couple years wrecked by wrist injuries, Mark Teixeira has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball to this point in 2015. Through Wednesday, he has produced 1.52 bWARP, good for 17th in baseball.  His wRC+ is 153, tied with Justin Upton for 21st overall. Among hitters with 50+ plate appearances, his TAv of .351 and his OPS of .968 place him 21st and 17th in the league.

No matter what metric you use to quantify overall performance, Mark Teixeira has been one of the best hitters in baseball this year. Combined with his continued stellar glove-work at first base (seven scoops already this year, no errors), Mark Teixeira is having a renaissance and is a good pick for comeback player of the year through 34 games.

The way in which Mark Teixeira is producing offensive value this year is something to behold.

Plate Appearances Walks Singles Doubles Triples Homers Outs
133 20 7 8 0 11 83

Of his 133 plate appearances thus far, he’s recorded a hit less than 20% of the time.  And when he puts the ball in play it’s probably being caught or going for extra bases. After a two-single day earlier this week his single count is all the way up to…seven.  The only other player with seven singles and over 100 plate appearances is the ghost of Shin-Soo Choo. He’s miraculously going 19 at-bats between singles this year, putting him on pace for only 35 for the entirety of 2015.

For context, the league leader in singles this year is Dee Gordon who has already recorded 44 singles. But with eight doubles and eleven homers, Mark Teixeira has made up for his singles drought, with 67 total bases already, eleventh in the league and one more than the aforementioned Dee Gordon. Nearly all of Teixeira’s value this year is coming by way of the extra base hit.

AVG OBP SLG BABIP ISO
.239 .353 .615 .181 .376

At this point in the season the question everyone wants answered is if it’s sustainable. If Teixeira can maintain an OPS over .900 for the rest of the year, the Yankees very well could be playing baseball come October. The way I look at it, Mark Teixeira has been lucky and unlucky in two specific ways so far in 2015 creating this funky slash line and ridiculous .615 slugging percentage.

First, Mark has been unlucky turning balls in play into hits. He’s sporting a .181 BABIP, well below the league average, his own career average, and even his lowest full-season output. He’s not fast and opposing teams have used the shift on him for years so a low BABIP is hardly surprising, but right now he’s several standard deviations below the mean. His LD/FB/GB percentages and spray profile are all right around his career norm so his approach hasn’t been altered in any way and a BABIP increase is likely right around the corner.

On the other hand, Teixeira might be in for some negative regression in his power numbers. Over a quarter of the fly balls he’s hit so far have gone for home runs. His HR/FB% right now sits at 27.5%, significantly higher than his career average of 18.2% and just above Jose Abreu’s league-leading 26.9% last year. 11 home runs are already in the bank, but his home run rate will likely to fall and we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for 30 more this season.

All of these trends amount to a foreseeable drop in his isolated slugging percentage.  ISO is SLG – AVG, so with a falling home run rate and bump in BABIP (conducive to singles), Teixeira’s ISO will likely fall back down closer to his career norm.

Per Fangraphs: Teixeira Career ISO vs League Average

Mark Teixeira is a key player for the Yankees this year. Their depth at first base amounts to Garrett Jones and a centaur. His offensive production through 34 games is a big reason the Yankees find themselves in first place in the division and Teixeira maintaining even 80% of his production thus far will keep them on the path to the playoffs.

Photo credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA Today Sports

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