A year ago I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Ben’s assessment. In fact, last September as a second straight non-playoff season wound to its end, I wrote that the Yankees were “destined for a down period, the type every other team goes through every few years, and this time there’s not much they can do about it.”

But the Yankees defied my expectations and reached the playoffs in 2015 thanks to surprising contributions from some players — notably Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran — that I had assumed to be dead money.

Still, three months ago I still assumed a short rebuild period was on the way. The Yankees’ 87 wins in 2015 didn’t seem repeatable with the team’s core aging and its depth chart stuck with some hard-to-fill holes. Brian Cashman’s commitment to youth meant the Yankees’ wouldn’t sacrifice prospects to restock the current team, which meant they would stumble through the next three years making due with what they had.

Then, Cashman went out and traded for Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro and Aroldis Chapman and parted with only a backup catcher, middle reliever and four largely insignificant prospects. Suddenly the 2016 Yankees appear better on paper than last year’s team, and 85 wins looks like the floor for the upcoming season.

After all that’s happened in the last calendar year, from a surprise playoff berth to an impressive off-season, I’ve come to believe the Yankees can in fact have it all. Cashman is walking a tightrope, trying to contend while counting down the years until Teixeira, Rodrguez, Beltran and CC Sabathia come off the books and a crop of superstars becomes available. He’s not only kept from falling during this high-wire act, he seems to have kept himself impeccably balanced.

Despite his pessimistic view of the short-term future, Ben concedes the Yankees will probably compete for a playoff spot in 2016. This will be a team without stars, but thanks to Cashman, one without serious holes, especially if a mid-rotation starting pitcher arrives before Opening Day.

Let’s fast-forward to 2017. Teixeira and Beltran will be off the books, and Greg Bird and Aaron Judge will likely inherit playing time with their departures. The Yankees will likely still have to pay Chase Headley, Brian McCann, A-Rod and Jacoby Ellsbury more money than they’re worth, but a young position-player core will be in place, and by that time the Tanaka-Severino-Pineda-Eovaldi starting rotation will have hit its prime.

There’s little sense in predicting as far into the future as 2018, but it seems reasonable to assume much of the emerging group of 20-somethings will remain assembled, with other additions to prop them up. Cashman has shown in recent years an impressive ability to acquire real big-league value without sacrificing much of consequence. Eovaldi cost David Phelps. Didi Gregorius cost Shane Greene. Starlin Castro cost Adam Warren. No general manager wins every trade, but Cashman seems to be coming close. If there’s any executive in baseball I trust to make the kinds of incremental improvements that boost a team from 80 wins to 85, or from 85 to 90, it’s the guy running the Yankees.

Ben’s forecast for a Yankee decline rests on the idea that though the 2015 core was overpaid, it provided value that will likely dwindle over the next few years. And while this is true, it doesn’t take into account the group whose value will presumably increase between now and 2018. The progression of Gregorius, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Castro, Bird and Judge, plus any additions Cashman makes over the next few off-seasons, should counteract some of the graying and keep the Yankees above water. Like the 2013-15 Yankees, the 2016-18 squads will feature several high-mileage players trending downward. But unlike recent teams, these next few will also include a promising group of youngsters.

The Yankees are rebuilding, but so far they’ve managed to prepare for the future without totally sacrificing the past. It’s a tough act to pull off, but right now it appears to be working.

They likely won’t be great team at any point during the next three years, but the Yankees might very well be better from 2016-18 than they were from 2013-15. At the very least it remains quite possible they remain above .500 and in playoff contention each season until the 2018 cavalry comes to join the prospects and restore the Yankees to glory.

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Yes, the Yankees are going to be in the race next year.  Their off-season hasn’t quite signaled that they’re in ‘win now’ mode, but they do hope their new acquisitions will make significant contributions next year.  Yet despite their intentions to win in 2016, the organization’s future plans remain unclear.  What does the Yankees’ future hold after this season?  No massive roster overhaul has happened yet, but some moves have the undertones of an impending retooling period.

For years, the Yankees have been considered an ‘old team.’  While their roster age technically isn’t old—2015’s team ranked 15^th in the league at 27.1 years of age—their reputation holds some truth.  This is because the majority of the team’s biggest contributors are veterans.  Of the eighteen players with more than one win above replacement, ten of them are over 30, and nine are over 31.  Even more surprisingly, just one hitter under 31—Didi Gregorious—was worth more than a win above replacement.  For contrast, here is the same data for each AL East team.

While the Yankees are perfectly average in terms of total roster age, weighing their age based on performance shows that they’re a very top-heavy team; the majority of their production comes from older players.  When looking past 2016, the issue of graying players really starts to emerge. While some fans may be looking forward to the day Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia and Carlos Beltran are no longer on the team’s payroll, it would be foolish to push aside the value that these players bring. Grizzled veterans have long been the foundation of the Yankees, and once they’re gone, they will be sorely missed.

The sheer amount of value leaving the team in the near future is hard to comprehend, and even harder to replace. The farm system is only so deep, and the next two free agent classes are projected to be very thin.  To start, Mark Teixiera will be off the roster next season.  Sure, it’ll be nice to have $23 million laying around, but Teixeira was the most valuable Yankee last year in terms of WAR, earning a 3.8 mark, despite playing in just under 70% of the team’s games. Carlos Beltran and his $15 million will also be off the books after this season, and while he’s a zero in the outfield, he was the best bat in the lineup in the second half, leading the team with a 169 wRC+. Coming off the payroll after the 2017 year will be CC Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez.  Sabathia won’t be missed, but Rodriguez was the third-best bat on the team with a 129 wRC+, and prior to his late-season collapse he was the best hitter on the club. His 144 wRC+ led the team and was the seventh-highest in the American League.

There are two important things to note here. First is the 8.7 WAR (from last year) that will be absent from the roster. That’s 49% of all of last year’s value, gone.  That said, there’s also the salary relief and the extra spending money that Yankees will gain. In the short term, it will be quite hard to compete; simply building through the 2016 and 2017 free agent classes isn’t a feasible idea. Success from prospects can certainly ease the losses, but the Yankees lack impact players that are close to the majors.  According to Baseball Prospectus’ top-10 Yankees prospects, just three players that are projected to be starters in their prime will be big-league ready by the 2017 season.  In addition, it can sometimes take several years for prospects to adjust and reach their ceiling. The farm system has some serious talent, but much of it won’t be ready when veterans start leaving the team.

Like it or not, there’s a good chance the Yankees will use the 2016 and 2017 seasons to rebuild.  On the bright side, the Yankees will shed over $41 million from their payroll next winter, and after the 2017 season, another $46 million will mercifully be gone.

It seems that the Yankees are setting up for an acquisition period in 2018.  At that point, most of the Yankees’ best prospects—like Luis Severino, Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Judge—will be approaching their prime, while a lot of the expensive veterans will depart.  The Yankees won’t be overly young, but at the same time they won’t be too top heavy.  Although some older players like Jacoby Ellsbury will likely still be around and may be overpaid, the roster will be relatively cost-effective. Analysts are already raving over what 2018’s free agent class could be—Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Dee Gordon, Jose Fernandez, Dallas Keuchel, Matt Harvey, Garrett Richards, Trevor Rosenthal, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Michael Brantley, Adam Jones, and Shelby Miller are all set to hit the market, and David Price, Jason Heyward and Clayton Kershaw would be available should they exercise their optout clauses.

This culmination of events could be the lead-up to the most legendary Yankees off-season of all-time, with a cheap roster, an open wallet, and tons of talent. It’s easy to start gushing about a free agent class that’s three years away, but at the same time, Yankee fans can’t forget about what will occur before then.  Nothing’s happened yet to indicate a retool, but the Yankees did come very close to dealing Andrew Miller for prospects and, despite obvious needs, have refused to sign players long term deals in free agency.  It’s not worth panicking over yet, but Yankee fans should keep in mind that this may be their last season as serious contenders until 2018.

Lead photo: Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports