More often that not this is a harmless exercise, hoping players perform a certain way rarely feels wrong. Sure, if they have a writer-friendly downturn it might cost them a little bit in arbitration or on their next contract, but most ball players are getting by alright.

The case of Stephen Drew is a little bit different. Drew’s season offensively has been fascinating if unimpressive, and I think there is a lot of interesting things to say about it. For this reason I was hoping the second baseman would get in the news for some reason so that he’d be top of mind for readers. Unfortunately, right now he is.

Drew continues to battle concussion symptoms from an incident earlier in September and looks to be done for the season. At the moment there is concern for “Stephen Drew: Human Being” as well as “Stephen Drew: Professional Athlete”, because lingering concussion issues can be life-changing and aren’t fully understood just yet. That’s not to say Drew won’t be fine in a couple of days, or a couple of weeks, but there are some pretty nasty potential outcomes on the table.

For this reason it feels a little bit petty to write about Drew’s baseball exploits this year, especially with a tone that’s inevitably going to be at least somewhat critical given his poor season. Simultaneously, it is the perfect time to talk about his year. Not only does it appear to be complete, but he is a player of interest right now. Moreover, Baseball Prospectus tends to skew more “statistical quirks in baseball” than “professional/potentially personal issues of athletes”. That’s just the way it is.

With all that out of the way, let’s talk about Drew’s 2015. It was a season where he hit 17 home runs with above-average walk and strikeout rates and was still borderline-disastrous offensively, even for a middle infielder. Seasons like that don’t come around very often.

Earlier in the year one of the reasons I examined for his struggles with the bat was his inability to hit anything that wasn’t a fastball, but there is another that helped drive his incredibly low .201 BABIP. Batted-ball data doesn’t go far back enough to make any definitive statements, but it would appear that Drew was one of the worst non-pull hitters of all time.

There are many players infamous for yanking the ball almost exclusively, Brian Dozier comes to mind despite recently hitting his first opposite-field home run, but Drew is in a league of his own. His pull rate of 47.0% ranked 17th this season among players with at least 400 PA, but it wasn’t the quantity that was astounding it was how reliant he was on hits to right field. The chart below shows all 34 of his extra-base hits in 2015, it’s not hard to spot the pattern.

Drew did not go to center or left with any kind of authority this year. In theory that’s not entirely surprising as he’s not abnormally strong, or known as a great power hitter. However, the extent of his inability to use two-thirds of the field is fairly astounding.

Most hitters post their best numbers when pulling the ball, but the difference for Drew between his pull statistics and those to other sections of the field is unmatched in baseball.

These numbers are jarring, and it’s important to contextualize them. Among the 115 players who pulled the ball in play at least 150 times in 2015 Drew’s wRC+ ranks 44th between Carlos Beltran and Brandon Crawford. He’s been legitimately good when the ball goes to right field-although he has got some help from Yankee Stadium. According to the ESPN Home Run Tracker he hit four home runs there that would leave three or fewer parks.

Going to center field his cool zero wRC+ is worst among hitter who went that direction at least 100 times. Curiously the second worst number belongs to Victor Martinez with 18. Going the opposite way he ranks 200th of 205 hitters with at least 50 plate appearances. Admittedly, the plate appearance cut-offs are tailored to Drew, but the numbers are still pretty staggering.

There’s a confluence of factors that leads to an awful offensive season like the one Drew had, but this issue might be the most significant. If you are only a threat in one-third of the field that makes you pretty easy to defend. It is most certainly a fact in posting an incredibly low .201 BABIP.

This year will certainly go down as a lost one for Drew, and if he wants to find himself in 2016 he’ll need to spray the ball more effectively. It would be hard to do it much worse.

(Photo: Tim Heitman-USA Today Sports)

Here’s the thing. Stephen Drew was once a good baseball player. In 2010 while playing for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Drew hit .278/.320/.438 while playing a solid shortstop and socking 15 home runs. That’s excellent, and led to a 5.3 WARP. That’s an amazing asset to have. This is not 2010, however. In 2015, Drew is hitting .201/.274/.385, playing a decent second base and has hit 16 homers. At first glance it appears that Drew has sold out for power in a big way. A low batting average combined with double digit home runs for a player on the wrong side of 30 conjures up that image. However, at a closer glance, we see that Drew has only struck out in 17.1 percent of his plate appearances this year. That’s down from his disastrous 2014 campaign, and he’s walking at almost the exact same rate. Naturally, that means he’s putting the ball in play more.

Here’s where things get interesting. When a player is not striking out at a prodigious rate, or walking at an especially high rate either, there are two general possible outcomes. The first is that of Ben Revere. Revere does not walk, and while he strikes out less often than Drew, Revere makes his living by slapping the ball all over the field and running very quickly to stretch singles into doubles. Revere hits a home run once every decade or so, but he’s still a useful player for his speed and range in the outfield. He won’t turn a franchise around, but he’s a useful supplementary piece. The other outcome is that of Drew, who makes insanely poor contact when he’s not depositing the ball in the right field porch. His line drive rate of 23.61 percent is lower than Omar Infante’s, and his overall 20.1 percent hard-hit rate (per FanGraphs) is the lowest of his career. Drew’s .201 BABIP is just a hair away from his actual .196 batting average.

The baseball world arbitrarily draws a line at .200 when it comes to batting average. We even gave the line a catchy name; the Mendoza Line. It’s a nice round number to be sure, and batting average isn’t even the greatest measure of offensive prowess to begin with. Batting average is the rate at which a player gets a hit in his at-bats. At-bats don’t include walks, as you all know, and a single counts for as much as a triple or a home run. Yet we take notice when a player slips below the fabled Mendoza Line because the vast majority of baseball players hit in the .200 range. Up until yesterday’s game, Drew hadn’t seen his batting average be .200 or higher since the middle of last year. Sometimes a player with a low batting average is still mildly productive due to a proclivity of walks and home runs. In 2012, Adam Dunn hit .204/.333/.468. He walked 105 times and hit 41 homers. He managed to be worth 1.9 WARP primarily because he hit the ball incredibly hard and walked a lot. Sure, he struck out 222 times. Yet Dunn was still a productive player despite his batting average.

Stephen Drew is not. Despite being in second place among second basemen in home runs, Drew’s exceedingly poor contact is crippling his offensive profile. The fact that he’s popping up more than a tenth of his balls in play (10.76 percent) isn’t helping either. It’s been more than a year since Stephen Drew returned from his qualifying offer- and Scott Boras-induced extended vacation from the game. Drew’s cratering made sense last year when he didn’t have a real Spring Training program. His fellow QO victim, Kendrys Morales, also struggled. Yet Morales is hitting now, and comments made by the Royals’ analytic staff representatives at Saber Seminar (in response to a question I asked) suggest that Morales showed signs of rebounding that Drew did not. While Drew has not hit as poorly as he did last year, he’s still been very bad with no end in sight. One four-hit game doesn’t signal the light at the end of the tunnel.

This year’s coming second base free agent market is highlighted by Howie Kendrick, Ben Zobirst, Daniel Murphy, Chase Utley and… Drew. While the Yankees could dish out the money necessary to sign one of those older players, none of them seem to be supremely exciting options because of downward trends in production or defensive concerns. The Yankees also don’t seem to be wild about in-house option Rob Refsnyder. Second base is a point of concern for many franchises, but it may cost another weird contract or a creative trade to conjure up a better option than the law firm of Drew and Refsnyder for 2016.

(Photo: Anthony Gruppuso-USA Today Sports)

The 32-year-old shortstop has been everything from a rising star to a complete liability and one season rarely seems to be predictive of the next. Drew has posted a negative WAR in three separate seasons with at least 300 plate appearances accumulated (2007, 2012, 2014) and he’s also posted a WAR of three or more twice (2010, 2013).

Between 2008 and 2011 Drew’s 10.5 WAR ranked 11th among shortstops, but he was below replacement level in the years before and after that span. There’s usually no telling what he’s going to do, and coming into this season he was very difficult to project.

On one hand, in 2014 he looked truly broken. Signing late with the Red Sox (in what will go down as one of Scott Boras’s all-time biggest blunders) and moving over to the Yankees later in the year he failed to find his footing and put up an dreadful .162/.237/.299 line on the year.

Things got so bad that after the season FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan actually penned a piece entitled “Did Stephen Drew Ever Look Like A Major-League Hitter?” about his 2014 season. Despite his putrid display, the Yankees figured that he wasn’t done yet and signed him to one-year contract worth $5 million that included playing time incentives.

At the time the logic was pretty sound. Drew was only entering his age-32 season and as recently as 2013 he had been a real asset for the Red Sox posting a WAR total of 3.4. He had a history of bouncing back from bad results, he was healthy, not too old and didn’t cost much.

Unfortunately for the Yankees it has not looked like a good signing so far. Drew has shown some pop, but other than that he has not been worth even his modest salary. His -0.1 WAR is ugly, so too is his .178/.239/372 line and 66 wRC+. His BABIP has some room to rebound, but it was also incredibly low last year so it’s coming time to ask whether his hitting ability still warrants the expectation that he’s going to post a normal BABIP.

So why has his hitting been so poor over since his last productive season in 2013? One reason has been a shocking inability to hit anything but fastballs. Drew has always been a fastball hitter, and his ability to hit what Brooks Baseball classifies as “Hard” Pitches actually hasn’t deserted him despite his awful offensive output.

Where he has totally gone off the rails is trying to hit anything else.

Surely the BABIPs are too low to hold up, but even in a small sample these numbers are indicative of a player who is unable to square up anything on the slower side.

This idea is supported by his exit velocity on non-fastballs.

While there’s a chance he’s been a bit on the unlikely side with these balls in play, the reality is he isn’t hitting them hard enough to expect to get hits with any kind of regularity.

Right now Drew is a pretty awful hitter and one of the biggest reasons is that he can only hit fastballs with authority. Sometimes pitchers can survive with a single plus pitch, but only being able to drive one well doesn’t work because you don’t get to choose what pitchers throw your way.

In Drew’s case he’s still seeing 56.4 percent fastballs, less than two percent below his career average (58.1 percent). In the near future one would have to think that number is going to drop. If pitchers want to turn Drew into even more of an automatic out than he is at the moment, it definitely should.

 (Photo: Jonathan Dwyer-USA Today Sports)

Entering play on Thursday the Yankees have been one of the hottest teams in baseball scoring an average of six runs per game during their recent seven-game winning streak. The key to their offensive success? Patience.

“The older you get, you know your strike zone and you stick to that,” said Stephen Drew, whose out-of-zone swing rate of 21.5 percent ranks 15th* in all of baseball. “Everybody just has a good plan going up there. If you don’t get a pitch to hit, you pass it on to the next guy. I think we’ve done a really good job of that and it’s paid off.”

All eight of the Yankees’ qualified starters are among the league’s top 115 hitters in pitches seen per plate appearance, while Jacoby Ellsbury and Chris Young, who have split time due to Ellsbury’s injury, would be among the 60 best with their current marks.

“We’ve got a good lineup,” said Brian McCann after the Yankees’ 6-1 win against the Nationals Tuesday. Max Scherzer was chased from the game before he could complete seven innings, having thrown 116 pitches. “Top to bottom, it’s hard to not let one person beat you. We’ve got guys up and down that can do damage. Trying to game-plan against us is tough.”

The Yankees have been able to put balls in play and produce baserunners at any stage of the game, boasting the seventh-lowest strikeout rate (.191) and 9th-highest walk rate (0.082) in baseball. That’s created a hefty bunch of scoring opportunities.

In particular, the top four hitters in the Yankees’ lineup have been the most problematic for opposing ballclubs. Brett Gardner has seen over four pitches per plate appearance on average, good for fifth-best in baseball, and has swung at just 23 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, which ranks 28th in baseball. After him, the aforementioned Ellsbury and Headley have worked pitchers, and so has A-Rod. Rodriguez’s eye has also been exceptional, as he’s swung at just 24.6 percent of pitches that have missed the zone, and in turn he’s posted a toasty .373 OBP.

“You look at what Alex [Rodriguez] has done and how often he’s gotten on base, and it’s not always about the hit – he’s taken his share of walks,” said Yankees manager Joe Girardi. “It sets up nicely for Mark [Teixeira] because he’s a great RBI guy.”

Boy, have things ever set up nicely for Teixeira. He’s stepped to the plate 126 times with runners on base, and has had the opportunity to drive in 174 runners – both top-five marks in all of baseball. That’s led to an AL-leading 45 RBIs, and the fact that he’s been able to hit 20 HRs has been an added bonus. Not to mention, he’s been able to find some good pitches himself choosing to swing at just 22 percent of pitches out of the strike zone.

“That’s something that we’ve always tried to do,” Girardi said. “We’ve sought out hitters that are patient, that walk, that hit home runs – that’s kind of the lineup we have this year. It’s played a key role in us scoring runs and having two and three-run homers. Those are a lot of times the tough ones for clubs to rebound from. You can rebound from giving up solo homers, you can give up a couple a game and it’s not a big deal. Those are the type of hitters we look for.”

Simply put, the way New York’s lineup has made opposing pitchers work has made it increasingly difficult to keep their pitch counts down and not make mistakes.

“They’re smart hitters,” Nationals Starter Gio Gonzalez said. “That’s one hell of a lineup. You can’t pitch around anyone there. You have to go after each one.”

The system the Yankees have in place has worked to perfection, especially when it comes to the top of the order. Hitting streaks will come and go, and so will power numbers. The one thing that looks steady about these Yankees, though, is their ability to put together good at-bats. That should help them win a lot more games this season.

*Note: All Major League rankings for swing stats are for players with a minimum of 500 pitches seen.

(Picture: Joe Nicholson-USA Today Sports)

Catcher

Brian McCann: 71 PA, .266/.319/.453, 2 HR, 110 wRC+

Those who were not enthused with McCann’s Yankee debut in 2014 quickly became irked by a slow first couple weeks, but through the magic of small sample size, McCann has picked up the pace since then and it shows in his stat line. His defense has been solid as usual and his wRC+ ranks in the top half of 24 catchers with at least 50 PA. For $17 million, there will always be a legion of fans demanding more, but at the same time, Buster Posey and Russell Martin are roughly similar with a .273/.345/.403 and .186/.347/.390, respectively, all for around the same average annual value.

Justified Annoyance Scale: 2*
*Scale is 1-5 with 1 being not at all and 5 being extremely justified.

Second base

Stephen Drew: 74 PA, .177/.274/.419, 4 HR, 88 wRC+

Drew’s number one problem is in that first column. Deserved or not, there are many who will just never be satisfied with someone hitting under .200. What’s weird about Drew so far is that he’s demonstrated among the best plate discipline in his career so far with a 12.2 percent walk rate while also maintaining a career-low line-drive rate (12.8 percent). There’s potential for more, even though he almost certainly won’t become the 20-homer threat his current dinger pace suggests.

As it stands, his wRC+ ranks around the middle of the pack in baseball while the Yankees’ last two active second basemen, Martin Prado and Robinson Cano, aren’t doing much better. Cano’s sluggish start won’t last, but if Drew’s offense can balance out at around a low-90s wRC+ for most of the season, that would stay right about average for MLB second basemen. Add in shortstop-quality defense that couldn’t be offered by Jose Pirela (ultimately a bench bat) or Rob Refsnyder (still figuring out second), and Drew’s been fine so far, though a few more knocks definitely couldn’t hurt.

Justified Annoyance Scale: 3

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius: 69 PA, .206/.261/.238, 0 HR, 40 wRC+

The new shortstop has exactly two extra-base hits all year and just seems to be swinging after every pitch he sees. There might be fewer grumbles with Shane Greene going through a rocky stretch in Detroit, but Gregorius can’t bat like this forever. He shouldn’t either, as last year he at least had a .244 True Average whereas in 2015, he’s pulling up a sub-.200 TAv. Nonetheless, it’s easy to be bummed by Didi’s play to date, as even on defense he’s gone through ups and downs. If anyone really needs a hot month to win over some fans, it’s Didi. With no internal solutions due to the difficulty of growing a shortstop, the Yankees had to deal from a strength to give a young, talented defender a shot. Only a couple regular shortstops have been worse than Gregorius. That must change.

Justified Annoyance Scale: 4

Right field

Carlos Beltran: 69 PA, .159/.217/.270, 0 HR, 27 wRC+

It’s difficult to watch once-extremely talented players rapidly age before your eyes, but that’s pretty much the story of the Carlos Beltran Era in Yankees history. Just a couple years ago, the switch-hitting outfielder slugged .491 with a .289 TAv for a pennant-winning Cardinals team. That all seems like a distant memory. Hell, even his middling .258 TAv from last year while battling a bone spur in his elbow all season looks Ruthian compared to his .174 TAv to date. If you’re looking for the right fielder with the lowest wRC+ in baseball with at least 50 PA, look no further. It’s Beltran. Meanwhile, he’s owed at least $27 million from now through the end of next season. That’s an uncomfortable financial commitment, but the leash cannot be too long if the Yankees fancy themselves contenders. They can only cross their fingers and hope for a recovery for so long.

Justified Annoyance Scale: 5

Photo Credit: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports

Top WPA Play:

 (.604 WPA)

Bottom WPA Play: As I mentioned above, the Yankees needed contributions from almost the entire 25-man roster to come away with this victory. Dellin Betances entered the game in relief of Michael Pineda in the seventh and despite control issues, he was able to escape the inning with the Yankees still leading. In the eighth, he allowed a single to Adam Jones, but was bailed out when John Ryan Murphy cut down Jones at second base on an attempted steal (-.159 WPA).

Key Moment: The caught stealing narrowly edged out Betances’ strikeout of Chris Davis with the bases loaded to end the seventh for bottom WPA play. It was great to see Betances gather himself and focus during the Davis at-bat as he seemed to be rushing for most of the inning. Despite the lack of control he continues to display, this big strikeout with the game in the balance has to boost Betances’ confidence.

(-.155 WPA)

Trend to Watch: It seemed like Joe Girardi may have pushed his pitchers to go deeper in the game than he might have if his bullpen wasn’t still feeling the effects of a 19-inning game in the first week of the season. Michael Pineda faced 26 batters and threw 98 pitches before it was clear he needed to be removed. Girardi also allowed Betances and Andrew Miller to face six batters each. The entire team is likely looking forward to having an off day on Thursday, but the bullpen could really use it.

Up Next: The Yankees will face the Orioles again tomorrow night as CC Sabathia takes on Miguel Gonzalez. Each club is 3-4 on the season now.

It was definitely frustrating in 2014 to watch the final form of Brian Roberts bumble about for half a season only to somehow still perform better than a supposedly still-in-his-prime Drew when the Yankees acquired him at the trade deadline. For certain prospect lovers, it was particularly galling because the Yankees had someone playing the exact same position as Roberts and Drew in the minors who happened to be hitting the tar out of the ball. Enter 2012 fifth round pick Rob Refsnyder.

At 23-years-old and in just his third professional season, Refsnyder had a breakout performances, as he hit .342/.385/.548 with a .303 TAv in Double-A Trenton, his first taste above A-ball. A June promotion to Triple-A Scranton hardly slowed him down, either. In 77 games the rest of the way, he continued his assault on minor league pitching with a .300/.389/.456 triple slash and a .291 TAv. Scouting analysts raved about his approach at the plate. Chris Mellen and the BP staff noted that he had a “line drive stroke” with “strong knowledge of the strike zone,” and a natural intelligence for the game. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranked him the 8th best second base prospect in baseball, agreeing that his hitting “translates into consistent line drives to all fields.” The Yankees eventually named Refsnyder their top minor league position player of the year in 2014.

So if Refsnyder tore up the minors so much, why did the Yankees re-sign Drew, and why is he still in Triple-A to begin the 2015 campaign? Unfortunately, Refsnyder’s defense leaves a lot to be desired. While he was a second baseman in high school, he patrolled right field during his collegiate days at Arizona for good reason. The Yankees felt that his bat would play a lot better at second than in a corner outfield spot, so he moved back to the infield at the start of the 2013 season. His shaky defense was on full display in spring training this year, as this was just one of his several fielding miscues:

Throughout the spring, Refsnyder made a team-high six errors and simply looked awkward around the position, even on successful plays. Callis and Mayo wrote in the off-season that Refsnyder “has made progress there, but still struggles with his footwork and probably won’t become more than an adequate defender.” Although the linked clip was just one play out of many, it highlights those problems at the keystone on double plays. Some people might cite stats like his mere three errors in 245 chances at Triple-A last year and an improved range factor, but that’s not enough to fly in the face of all the negative scouting reports, which are far more reliable. Refsnyder’s defense is probably better than it was in 2013, but boy, is that faint praise.

Given his present Acme brand glove, adding Refsnyder to the Yankees’ current roster would clearly just be rushing him. He’s not ready defensively, and GM Brian Cashman has made no secret of the fact that working on it will be his path to the big leagues. A common counterargument some fans have mentioned is represented by 2005 Robinson Cano. Like Refsnyder, Cano was a second baseman who never made a Top 100 Prospect list and whose opportunity opened up by no clear solution for second at the big league level.

Ten years ago, it was Tony Womack in the Opening Day second base job, but by May 3rd with the team stumbling at 11-15, Cano was promoted while Womack and fan favorite Bernie Williams saw their playing time cut. Cano was red hot in Triple-A Columbus at the time with a .333/.368/.574 triple slash over the season’s first month while Womack and Bernie were only hitting .282/.330/.329 and .247/.324/.312, respectively. (While Bernie rebounded somewhat, Womack’s game would amazingly plummet far further into the depths of hell to become one of the worst players in franchise history. He was somehow traded in the off-season to the Reds for minor leaguers with a pulse.) Cano finished runner-up to Huston Street in Rookie of the Year voting that season thanks to a steady bat that carried him to a .266 TAv, 2.7 WARP season despite defensive problems that lingered in his game for the next four years.

So the logic goes “if it worked with Cano a decade ago, why couldn’t it work for Refsnyder now?” It certainly could work–baseball can be surprising like that. However, the Canos of the world who weren’t heralded at all during their minor league days are the exceptions rather than the rule. There also seems to be a misconception about Cano’s arrival turning the 2005 Yankees offense around. The team did, in fact, recover to win their eighth consecutive AL East crown with a major league best 84-52 record from Cano’s arrival onward. Cano was definitely an improvement over Womack, but it wasn’t him that made them play over .600 ball.

The 2005 Yankees had 111 team wRC+ prior to his call-up and a 116 wRC+ afterward. Yes, it was better, but they were already great. This was an 886-run team that was absolutely stacked on offense with eventual MVP Alex Rodriguez, AL Comeback Player of the Year Jason Giambi, ’04 MVP runner-up Gary Sheffield, ’06 MVP runner-up Derek Jeter, not to mention solid seasons from Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada. Like Cano, they were also not good on defense, so they needed every bit of offense to squeak out a division title.

Refsnyder would not be arriving in a similar situation at all. The 2015 Yankees offense has some useful parts who can reasonably be counted on in Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Chase Headley. Beyond them though, there are the quickly declining bats of Brian McCann, Mark Teixiera, and in particular, Carlos Beltran. Oh, and a mysterious version of A-Rod who will turn 40 in July, has played professionally just two months in the past two seasons, and is operating on twice surgically repaired hips. Even if Refsnyder is called up now and produces at a 2005 Cano-like level (far from a guarantee with hitting in the majors more difficult than it has been in decades), it’s probably not going to be enough to be what pushes a presently projected .500 team over the edge. They need their primary starters to produce in order to make that happen.

So for now, it’s best that the Yankees adhere to former BP prospect analyst Kevin Goldstein’s rule of rushing prospects as little as possible and just let Refsnyder work on the kinks in the minors. Like the big league club, he’s already off to an unpromising start anyway.
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