Of course, real life doesn’t work that way. Like any other team, the Yankees deal with injuries both large (Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi) and small (nagging strains and pulls that cause missed starts here and there). They’ll continue to deal with pitchers getting hurt in 2018 as well, even though everyone appears healthy at the moment.

Sometimes the Yankees trade for replacements, such as Sonny Gray or Jaime Garcia. Other times they just need a spot start or two and call on someone from AAA or the bullpen. Over the course of a season these spot starts add up and have a substantial impact on the team’s performance. Here are the spot starters from the last three years:

You are forgiven if you don’t remember most of these pitchers as starters. They really weren’t very memorable, as we’ll explore further below. Nevertheless, they account for 41 of the Yankees last 486 GS, or 8.4% of their games. This doesn’t even include Luis Severino’s 11 awful starts in 2016. He actually started the year in the rotation so it’s hard to call him a fill-in. Plus, he’s great now, so let’s not dwell in the past! Besides, these spot starters don’t need any help looking bad. Here are their combined numbers for each season:

2017:

2016:

2015:

In 2017 and 2015, they averaged less than 4 IP per start. In all three seasons, they were extremely prone to home runs and yielded a lot of base runners in general. No matter how you slice it, this is a lot of bad pitching.

What does this mean for the 2018 Yankees? For one thing, they should pray for health and hope to minimize spot starters as much as possible. But it also means there’s an under-the-radar opportunity to make a significant improvement to the team. They should expect probably 10-20 spot starts from minor leaguers or stretched relievers. If they can clear the low bar set by their predecessors, the Yankees could steal an extra few wins.

The Spot Starters

Most of the pitchers listed above were never supposed to be anything special. Chad Green turned into a fantastic reliever of course, but he wasn’t a great prospect as a starter. Luis Cessa and Bryan Mitchell were similarly unspectacular prospects- the kind of guys who are supposed to ride the AAA shuttle. This year, the Yankees “B Team” features more highly touted prospects than in the past.

Domingo German

German came to the Yankees in the Martin Prado-for-Nathan Eovaldi trade, then promptly missed the 2015 season with Tommy John surgery. Since then, he’s reestablished himself as a noteworthy prospect. He relies on an electric high-90s fastball with good movement. His curveball and changeup are still progressing, and his command still needs work. If he can solidify the secondary pitches he’s got the upside of a mid-rotation starter. If not, the fastball alone should get him some action out of the bullpen. He did see some time in the majors last year in a mop-up role, and he’s enjoyed a pretty good Spring Training so far. Because he’s already on the 40 man roster, he should get one of the first calls to grab a spot start in the big leagues.

Luis Cessa

Yes, Cessa is still kicking around the 40 man roster. His 4.73 DRA through 106.1 IP is less than impressive, but it could be worse (take a look at the Reds starters). He’s been hit pretty hard through three starts this spring. Barring injury, he’ll begin the year in Scranton-Wilkes Barre, but he’s almost certain to start a few games in pinstripes. The Yankees have a constant 40 man roster crunch, so he’ll continue to resurface until he’s traded or DFA.

Chance Adams

Perhaps the Yankees’ best pitching prospect, Adams has completely conquered the high minors. Baseball Prospectus ranked him the #3 prospect in the organization and #51 overall on their top 101. As noted by the BP prospect team, “Adams may have already been one of the Yankees five best rotation options this summer when they were giving starts to the Luis Cessas and Caleb Smiths of the world.” However, he’s not yet on the 40 man roster, though he certainly will be before the season ends.

Domingo Acevedo

Acevedo is a 6’7″ righty who’s been clocked as fast as 103 MPH. He dominated AA bats last year and should spend the bulk of 2017 in AAA. He needs to work on his violent delivery that looks nearly certain to cause future arm problems. Regardless, he’s on the 40 man roster already, so he should get a chance to show his impressive stuff in the majors at some point.

***

Clearly, the collective potential of this group is much higher than the spot starters of years past. Except for Cessa, who is what he’s always been, these pitchers all have a chance to become impact major leaguers. If they can simply not get rocked in the handful of games they start in 2018, it will be a major improvement. That could be enough to make a difference in a tight pennant race.

Photo credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

If the season started tomorrow, the Yankees’ starting rotation would look something like this:

Masahiro Tanaka
Luis Severino
Michael Pineda
Nathan Eovaldi
CC Sabathia

Ivan Nova
Bryan Mitchell

Now that’s not so bad. All seven of those guys have had some degree of success one time or another and could contribute in 2016. As a bonus, six of the seven are younger than 30 years old. But, like last year, the rotation carries a number of question marks. Will Pineda be healthy? Will we see the version of Sabathia that dominated September or the one that struggled through April, May, June and July (and that’s not even touching on the fact that he’ll be pitching for the first time since checking into rehab last October)? Can Nova bounce back from a bad season? Is Mitchell truly an MLB-caliber starter?

Given the uncertainty, it’s likely the Yankees will add to their rotation before Opening Day. And given their apparent commitment to youth and austerity, we can assume they’ll look for a young, cost-controlled option. But young starters certainly don’t grow on trees, and any team that has a 25-year-old, mid-rotation pitcher won’t likely part with him easily.

With Shelby Miller off the board and Jose Fernandez’s price prohibitively high, let’s look at some young pitchers Brian Cashman might think about placing calls on.

Category I: The Deep Rebuilding Team

Though most rebuilding teams want to hold on to their mid-20s players, occasionally a team embarks on a teardown so thorough it will part with even its young major leaguers. Here, we’re looking for pitchers young enough to help the Yankees in the near future but old enough that their current teams are willing to cash in for prospects.

• Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves

The Braves have already traded the 25-year-old Miller and 26-year-old Andrelton Simmons, so they would probably be willing to part with the 24-year-old Teheran for the right price. This would be somewhat of a buy-low move, as the righty is coming off an unimpressive season on the heels of two good ones. Teheran would cost the Yankees at least one of their top prospects (Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Jorge Mateo), but unlike Fernandez wouldn’t require a package built around Severino.

• Taylor Jungmann, Milwaukee Brewers

Jungmann had a nice rookie year in 2015 (3.77 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 119.1 innings), but he’s already 25 years old, and the Brewers aren’t anywhere close to contention. There’s no specific indication that the 2011 first-round pick is available, but he’s the type of low-ceiling guy a rebuilding team might consider moving under the right circumstances.

• Anthony Desclafani/Rasiel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds

This could be a stretch, but the Reds have a ton of young arms, and maybe they’d be willing to part with one of the older, more developed ones. Desclafani and Iglesias are both almost 26 with solid rookie seasons under their belts. Would Cincinnati give up guys who don’t hit arbitration for a few more years? Who knows, but it’s probably worth a call.

Category II: The Low-floor/high-ceiling guys

The Yankees could pursue a young starting pitcher whose previous teams are ready to move on following early-career injury or ineffectiveness.

• Henderson Alvarez, free agent

The Marlins non-tendered Alvarez only a year after he posted a 2.65 ERA and 3.58 FIP over 187 innings, which indicates an enormous lack of confidence in his ability to come back strong from shoulder surgery. Still, the 25-year-old has shown he can pitch at an elite level and will offer high-risk upside to whoever signs him.

• Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are supposedly discussing trades involving the 26-year-old Moore, who has thrown only 73 innings in the past two years. Once upon a time, Moore was one of the top three prospects in baseball along with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, and the Yankees (along with everyone else) will be tempted to try to recapture that potential.

• Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels

Skaggs hasn’t lived up to his top-prospect hype, with a career 4.72 ERA in 181 innings, but his 3.55 FIP in 2015 suggests a breakout could lie ahead. The Angels have more starting pitchers (Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Hector Santiago, Matt Shoemaker, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson) than they know what to do with, so perhaps they’d consider dealing the 24-year-old Skaggs.

Category III: May I interest you in Brett Gardner?

The Yankees’ willingness to trade Gardner opens up the possibility of working with a contending team that simply needs an outfielder (plus some prospects) more than a starting pitcher.

• Taijuan Walker/James Paxton, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have already reportedly turned down a deal centered around Gardner and the 23-year-old Walker but are open to giving up 27-year-old James Paxton. Given Seattle’s need for outfielders, this one makes enough sense for the teams to eventually find some middle ground.

• Danny Salazar/Trevor Bauer/Cody Anderson, Cleveland Indians

The Indians are reportedly listening to offers on all their starting pitchers, and though Carlos Carrasco’s price tag is likely greater than the Yankees are willing to pay, Cashman could make a move for Salazar, 25, Bauer, 24 or Anderson, 25. One of these deals could require forking over some good prospects in addition to Gardner, but the 32-year-old left fielder could be an appealing target for an offense-starved Cleveland team.

• Zack Wheeler, New York Mets

The Mets have an excess of young starting pitching, and the 25-year-old Wheeler, coming off Tommy John surgery, could be the odd man out. The question is, does Sandy Alderson need an outfielder to replace Yoenis Cespedes, or are they content to start the season with a Michael Conforto/Juan Lagares/Curtis Granderson alignment.

Lead photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports