Davis, of course, initially burst onto the scene with the Mets with a 19-home run, 3.8 WARP season in 2010. Since then, however, he’s only accumulated another 3 WARP. His last stint of MLB action was last year with the A’s, where he hit just .229/.301/.350. Davis had been playing this year at Triple-A Round Rock for the Rangers, hitting .268/.350/.437.

It’s notable that the Yankees would bring in Davis instead of bringing up Nick Swisher from Triple-A, but also not very surprising. Swisher entered hitting just .250/.280/.437 against sub-MLB pitching, and likely wouldn’t do any better upon arriving back in the big leagues. Davis is younger and performing better at Triple-A, so he therefore presents a slightly better option. It’s unlikely that Davis will tear the cover off the ball, of course, but it’s something.

Photo: Rick Scuteri, USA Today Sports

Top Performers

Scranton: Rob Refsnyder (5-15, 4 R, 2 HR, 2B) Ref’s recent hot streak earned him another cup of coffee in the Bronx and a chance to supplant Ronald Torreyes as utility infielder.

Trenton: Dustin Fowler (9-25, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2B, 3B, SB) Fowler is beginning to recover after a slow start in Double-A.

Tampa: Ian Clarkin (14.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K) His strong performance merited a write-up in Baseball America’s Prospect Report. They mentioned his stuff is undiminished by last season’s elbow the injury, which is an encouraging sign despite his mixed results this year.

Charleston: Thairo Estrada- (9-21, 3 HR, 2 2B, 4 R, 4 RBI) The 5’10 155 lb Estrada has clubbed five home runs in his first 30 games of 2016. He had just four in his previous 135 professional games.  

Notes

• Gary Sanchez, New York’s number three prospect according to BP, received his first career start Friday against Chris Sale and the White Sox. He went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and was subsequently demoted.
• 24-year-old Chad Green also earned his first big league start this week, a rocky outing Monday against the Diamondbacks in place of the injured Luis Severino. He was optioned back to Triple-A following the 12-2 loss.
• Rob Refsnyder’s 16 game hitting streak ended Friday against the Indianapolis Indians.
• RailRiders beat writer Shane Hennigan tweeted that although Mason Williams is “progressing well,” there is no timetable for his return at the moment. Williams underwent season ending shoulder surgery last August and is currently on the 60-day DL.
• On Wednesday, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com reported that there was finally an official timetable for James Kaprielian’s recovery from elbow inflammation. No less a source than Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner estimated it would be 4-6 weeks until he was back in action.
• Starting pitchers Dietrich Enns and Eric Ruth were promoted to Triple-A Scranton. Enns went six scoreless innings in his RailRiders’ debut.
• The Yankees traded for 25-year-old Twins righthander J.R. Graham on Saturday. Rated the 63rd best prospect in baseball before the 2013 season, Graham has struggled with injuries and command issues. This kind of high-upside/low-risk pickup has been Cashman’s bread and butter the past few years. Lots still to like here.

The Quote

“He’s still got 80 speed, but he can’t just get away with it anymore.” – A scout cited by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports discussing the base-stealing prowess of top prospect Jorge Mateo.

After swiping 82 bags in 97 chances (84.5%) to lead all minor leaguers last season, Mateo has been caught eight times in 21 attempts (61.9%) in 2016.

The Highlight

It would be hard to find a less likely candidate for a two homer game in the Yankee system than the diminutive Thairo Estrada. There are more toolsy and physically impressive shortstops in the organization, but the scrappy Estrada continues to hold his own against increasingly advanced competition.

Photo: Noah K. Murray / USATSI

Aaron Judge, RF

Here’s the obvious one. Judge has huge power, coming from his 6-foot-7 frame, and also has surprising contact ability and athleticism. Judge figures to be an impact bat in the heart of the lineup, who also can bring solid right-field defense. Strikeouts will always be a part of Judge’s game thanks to his long arms and huge strike zone, and that’s a big reason why he didn’t reach the majors in 2015. Although Judge was impressive in Double-A last season, he struggled in his first taste of Triple-A. It was a big jump for the 23-year-old, and while a .224/.308/.373 line with just eight home runs in 61 games isn’t what we hoped for, it’s not overly worrisome. Judge is unlikely to make the team out of spring training, partly because he needs more development and partly because there isn’t a clear opening need for him in the outfield yet. Ideally, Judge should get at least half a season more in the minors to develop, but early success in the minors or an injury in the majors could cause Judge to become a factor in the Yankees’ lineup by the All Star Break. 

Gary Sanchez, C

Sanchez has gone the way of Greg Bird this fall, with Sanchez’s Arizona Fall League causing his value to skyrocket. Sanchez showed that he could translate his raw tools into the game, impressing team officials enough for them to trade 24-year-old John Ryan Murphy to the Twins. Now, Sanchez figures to be the Yankees backup catcher in 2016 and could be their starting catcher once Brian McCann has to move off the position. Like Judge, Sanchez could probably use some more minor-league development, as his defense lags behind his offense. But, the Yankees likely prefer Sanchez to Austin Romine as their second catcher. Sanchez won’t get many at-bats, but his impressive bat and arm could open some eyes in his limited chances.

Rob Refsnyder, 2B

Refsnyder spent all of 2015 on the brink of the majors, but ended up with just 47 plate appearances. Refsnyder isn’t very flashy, but brings an above-average hit tool and fringe-average tools everywhere else. He could start at second base for a less-competitive team, but the Yankees don’t seem to be high on Refnsyder. If the team doesn’t make a trade or sign a player like Ben Zobrist, Howie Kendrick, or (gasp) Daniel Murphy, Refsnyder could platoon with Dustin Ackley at second. But, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him on another major-league team come Opening Day.

Jacob Lindgren, RP

After an electrifying professional debut in 2014, Lindgren was expected to contribute in the Yankees bullpen in 2015. A bone spur in his elbow ended that hope after just seven innings of 5.14 ERA ball, but the team is hoping for a return to form for Lindgren in 2016. Should his stuff return after injury, Lindgren’s ridiculously high strikeout numbers could land him a middle-relief role in the bullpen in 2016. Lindgren has the talent to succeed early on and earn a bigger role in the bullpen as the season progresses. If he’s healthy, Lindgren could have a surprisingly big impact in 2016, especially if the Yankees end up trading Andrew Miller. A strong spring training should give Lindgren a major-league spot to start the season.

Brady Lail, SP

Remember Chase Whitley? Brady Lail has a chance to assume a similar role in 2015. Lail had a breakout 2015, with a 2.45 ERA in Double-A putting him on the prospect map. The 22-year-old ran into trouble in a limited stint in Triple-A, posting a 4.62 ERA in 37 innings. Like Aaron Judge, the Triple-A performance wasn’t encouraging, but nothing alarming. Lail could be a long man for the Yankees or a spot starter in the second half of 2016, but doesn’t figure to make a huge impact. Long term, Lail could turn into a decent back end-starter—one who resembles Mike Leake.

Mason Williams/Slade Heathcott, OF

Okay, I got a little lazy, but Heathcott and Williams are similar players. Both are extremely talented, but injury and attitude problems have led to them being disappointments as prospects. Still, both received chances in the majors and flashed some tools before getting injured (again) in 2015. It seems that the two outfielders have matured, and if injuries haven’t eroded their talent, the two players each offer intriguing upside. That said, it is most likely that they turn into fourth or fifth outfielders, and one of them could get that role out of Spring Training next season. 

Jake Cave/Ben Gamel, OF

Now we move on from underachieving but talented players to overachieving but less gifted prospects. Cave and Gamel both feature average-at-best skills across the board, which is useful but not flashy. Neither is likely to hold a starting job in the majors, especially given a surplus of outfielders in the high minors. But Cave has always performed in the minors, and Gamel looked like a different player in Triple-A last season, with a surprisingly good performance. Gamel is currently farther along than Cave and could get a major-league look first, although neither are likely to get more than a handful of at-bats in 2016 due to the team’s already crowded outfield.

(Photo: Brad Penner-USA Today Sports)

We can guess at the composition of most of that 25-man roster, beginning with about 16 sure things:

C Brian McCann

C John Ryan Murhphy

1B Greg Bird

SS Didi Gregorius

3B Chase Headley

OF Carlos Beltran

OF Jacoby Ellsbury

OF Brett Gardner

OF Chris Young

DH Alex Rodriguez

P Masahiro Tanaka

P Dellin Betances

P Andrew Miller

P Justin Wilson

P Adam Warren

Beyond those 15, the Yankees will likely carry two additional starting pitchers, in case of emergency, and might as well bring along pinch-running specialist Rico Noel, bringing our total to 18 (seven pitchers, 11 position players). Throw in three more relievers (Rumbelow? Shreve? Capuano? Bailey? Pinder? Pazos? Does it even matter?) and we’re down to four spots, which will likely all go to position players.

Which brings up to the central question of Yankee wild-card-game roster-building: Which and how many of the Yankees’ five second basemen will be tabbed for a spot.

This decision will come down to two key variables. 1) Is Stephen Drew healthy? and 2) Is the opposing starting pitcher right-handed or left-handed?

Here are the contingencies.

1. If Drew is healthy and a right-hander is on the mound, the Yankees will start Drew and carry Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder off the bench.

Drew was the Yankees’ starting second baseman all season, so if he’s fully healthy (and we’ll get to that in a minute) he likely gets the start. Refsnyder will come along to pinch-hit against a lefty, and Ackley adds positional versatility. It’s possible the Yankees would take Brendan Ryan instead of Ackley, valuing late-game defense over offensive pop and positional versatility.

2. If Drew is NOT healthy and a right-hander is on the mound, the Yankees will start Ackley and carry Refsnyder and Ryan off the bench.

This one is pretty straightforward. If Drew can’t go, the left-handed Ackley gets the nod against a righty, with Refsnyder available to pinch-hit and Ryan waiting to enter as a defensive replacement.

3. If Drew is healthy and a left-hander is on the mound, the Yankees will start Refsnyder and carry Ackley and Drew off the bench.

Given how well the right-handed-hitting Refsnyder has performed in September, he’ll clearly get a start against a lefty, with Ackley there for his versatility and ability to pinch-hit against a righty. The only question with this scenario is whether Drew or Ryan gets the final spot. There’s a strong argument that because Ackley will be available as a bat off the bench, the Yankees can worry exclusively about defense for the final spot and opt for Ryan, but Drew is no slouch in the field either and is a better hitter.

4. If Drew is NOT healthy and a left-hander is on the mound, the Yankees will start Refsnyder and carry Ackley and Ryan off the bench.

If Drew can’t play, Ryan comes along as a defensive sub essentially by default.

It is somewhat possible that if Drew is healthy the Yankees would roster all four of those second basemen (and theoretically possible they would take Jose Pirela if Drew isn’t ready to go). Yes, Ackley can also play the outfield, but Joe Girardi would probably be wiser to carry Slade Heathcott in case of emergency than to bring along a fourth second baseman.

As for which scenario is most likely… Joe Girardi said Friday that Drew is “doubtful” to return, so the Yankees will prepare to move forward without him. The Astros will likely start Dallas Keuchel, pitching on three days rest for the first time in his career.

That means the best bet for Tuesday’s game is a lineup featuring Rob Refsnyder, a rookie with 39 career plate appearances, at second base.

(Photo: Jonathan Dyer-USA Today Sports)

Rob Refnsyder, 2B:

The Yankees currently have a stacked Triple-A roster, with loads of MLB-caliber talent. Rob Refsnyder is one of these players, a low-risk player that has an MLB career ahead of him. While it’s been established that Refsnyder will have a career in the majors, what is still up in the air is Refnsyder’s ultimate role. Depending on the scout, Refsnyder could be destined for a utility player, or he may end up being an average regular at second. 

An issue with Refsnyder is that he doesn’t have one single standout tool, and may not even possess a plus tool. In terms of speed, the second baseman is about average to slightly below. But, he has stolen 10 bases this season and nine last year thanks to a high baseball IQ. With that in mind, Refnsyder may be able to steal 5-10 bases a year in the majors. Refsnyder’s power is below average, especially due to his line drive swing and approach, but he should be able to muscle out up to 10 home runs a year if all goes well.  Refsnyder’s best tool is his above average bat. His plate discipline and eye at the plate are outstanding, and he makes consistent contact. These tools are supported by an impressive 13.9 percent strikeout rate and 11.7 percent walk rate this year in Triple-A. Refsnyder’s average will probably hang around .270-.280, with an OBP about 70 points higher than that. 

Refsnyder’s bat is solid, but it isn’t strong enough to allow him to start in the outfield. This is why it’s important for him to stick at second base if he wants to be an MLB regular. At his best, he may be fringy-average at second base. As long as he can reach that level, though, he should be able to stay at second. It’s also worth keeping in mind that Refsnyder played the outfield in college, so he’s still relatively new to second base.

Refnsyder isn’t the most exciting player and he lacks a game changing skillset, but the all-around package—a second baseman that hits .275 with a good OBP with a handful of homeruns and steals—may be enough for him to be a second-division starter in the major leagues.

Miguel Andujar, 3B:

Going into 2015, Andujar was seen as a relative unknown in the Yankees system. He’s like many Yankee prospects: a great athlete with loud raw tools but not much polish. Andujar’s minor league stats have never been very impressive, and unfortunately, that hasn’t changed much this season. That being said, he still has the tools to be a successful major league regular.

This season, Andujar made the leap from Low-A to High-A ball, something that he may not have been ready for. When you take that into perspective, his .238/.276/.350 slash line doesn’t look terrible, though it’s still not encouraging. Andujar’s been striking out more (17.4 percent of the time), and walking less (4.6 percent walk rate). His lack of experience and rawness makes these stats understandable and not as worrisome, though. 

What’s more important right now for Andujar is his scouting report. Andujar’s plus raw power remains a standout tool, and while his bat is just fringe-average, that should be enough to allow his raw power play in games. Andujar’s speed is an underrated tool, and despite a lack of stolen bases so far in the minor leagues, he has above average speed and can be a rare third baseman that runs. Andujar’s glove is currently a liability, but his very strong arm will be enough to keep him at third long-term. 

Andujar remains a very raw player with big upside and a lot of volatility. Some hoped that he would start to turn his tools into production this season, but a breakout will have to wait until next year in his second look at High-A. His upside remains a first-division regular with some serious pop and a decent average, but he’s unlikely to be in the Bronx before 2018.

Nelson Gomez

The Yankees had one of the largest July 2nd international signing hauls ever in 2014, inking several big name prospects to contracts. Nelson Gomez was given the second largest bonus from the Yankees, behind Dermis Garcia. Gomez, just 17, signed for $2.25 million and has already shown a lot of promise in his first year of professional ball.

Gomez’s statline isn’t exactly mindblowing, as he’s slashing .241/.351/.433, but he also has 10 home runs in 51 games. For a 17 year old in rookie ball, this is quite impressive. After all, the top July 2nd prospect last year, Gilbert Lara, is hitting just .255/.287/.339. Gomez brings an impressive pairing of tools at the plate, with potential to have an above average, or better, bat and game power. While his bat could play anywhere on the diamond, Gomez should be able to stick at third as long as he doesn’t add too much more weight to his already large frame. Gomez is light years away from making an impact in the Bronx, but he has the ability to be a top prospect in the next couple of years. 

Scranton Wilkes/Barre RailRiders

Friday:
RailRiders 3, Mud Hens 2

Saturday:

RailRiders 2, Mud Hens 4

Sunday:

RailRiders 9, Mud Hens 1

Monday:
Red Sox 1, RailRiders 2

Tuesday:

Red Sox 2, RailRiders 5

Wednesday:

Red Sox 3, RailRiders 4

Thursday:

Red Sox 2, RailRiders 3

Friday:

RailRiders 5, Red Wings 3

Saturday:

RailRiders 2, Red Wings 3

Sunday:

RailRiders 2, Red Wings 3

Notable Performances From The Week:

CF Ben Gamel: 14-37, 5 2B,1 3B, 2 HR, 9 R, 5 RBI, SB, 3 BB, 9 K

2B Rob Refsnyder: 8-35, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 8 R, 4 RBI, 7 BB BB, 6 K

1B Greg Bird: 7-23, 2B, R, 4 RBI, BB, 3 K

C Gary Sanchez: 11-41, 4 2B, 4 R, 4 RBI, CS, 2 BB, 6 K

RF Aaron Judge: 10-35, 2B, 3 HR, 5 R, 11 RBI, SB, 4 BB, 14 K

RHP Brady Lail: 6.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K—5.2 IP, 2 R/ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Trenton Thunder

Friday:
Thunder 6, Mets 3

Saturday:

Thunder 4, Mets 2

Sunday:

Thunder 2, Mets 4

Wednesday:

Thunder 0, Rock Cats 5

Thunder 4, Rock Cats 1

Thursday:

Thunder 5, Rock Cats 6

Friday:

Fightin Phils 1, Thunder 2

Saturday:

Fightin Phils 4, Thunder 2

Sunday:

Fightin Phils 2, Thunder 0

Notable Performances From The Week:
CF Jake Cave: 12-36, 4 2B, 4 R, 2 RBI, SB, BB, 6 K

SS Tyler Wade: 3-33, 2B, 2 R, 6 K

RHP Joel De La Cruz: 5.0 IP, 2 R/ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K

RHP Caleb Smith: 7.0 IP, 0 R/ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K

RHP Cale Coshow: 6.0 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K

Tampa Yankees

Friday:

Saturday:

Threshers 3, Yankees 5

Threshers 1, Yankees 0

Sunday:

Threshers 6, Yankees 7

Monday:
Manatees 2, Yankees 4

Tuesday:

Manatees 7, Yankees 12

Wednesday:

Manatees 1, Yankees 0

Thursday:

Yankees 4, Threshers 6

Friday:

Yankees 5, Threshers 1

Sunday:

Yankees 8, Flying Tigers 1

Monday:

Yankees 6, Flying Tigers 2

Yankees 4, Flying Tigers 0

Notable Performances From The Week:

SS Abiatel Avelino: 15-43, 2B, 8 R, 3 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS, 2 BB, 5 K

3B Miguel Andujar: 13-37, 4 2B, 3B, HR, 8 R, 6 RBI, 2 SB, 3 BB, 4 K

SS Jorge Mateo: 15-40, 2B, 5 3B, 6 R, 4 RBI, 2 SB, CS, 3 BB, 10 K

RHP Jonathan Holder: 5.1 IP, 1 R/ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K—6.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K

LHP Jordan Montgomery: 5.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K

LHP Chaz Hebert: 7.0 IP, 0 R/ER, 2 H, 9 K

Charleston RiverDogs

Friday:
Sand Gnats 3, RiverDogs 2

Saturday:

Sand Gnats 1, RiverDogs 4

Sand Gnats 1, RiverDogs 8

Sunday:

Sand Gnats 2, RiverDogs 4

Tuesday:

Legends 0, RiverDogs 9

Wednesday:

Legends 11, RiverDogs 5

Thursday:

Legends 10, RiverDogs 12

Friday:

RiverDogs 6, Drive 3

Saturday:

RiverDogs 5, Drive 8

Sunday:

RiverDogs 6, Drive 2

Monday:

Braves 0, RiverDogs 3

Notable Performances From The Week:

SS Vince Conde: 17-44, 8 2B, 3 HR, 11 R, 15 RBI, 2 SB, 6 BB, 7 K

RHP Matt Wotherspoon: 6.0 IP, 2 R/ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K

RHP Joey Maher: 6.0 IP, 0 R/ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 11 K—7.0 IP, 0 R/ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 7 K

RHP Jordan Foley: 5.0 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 10 K

Staten Island Yankees

Friday:
Yankees 6, Renegades 4

Saturday:

Yankees 10, Renegades 1

Sunday:

Cyclones 2, Yankees 1

Monday:
Cyclones 7, Yankees 0

Tuesday:

Cyclones 7, Yankees 10

Wednesday:

Croscutters 4, Yankees 1

Thursday:

Croscutters 4, Yankees 6

Friday:

Croscutters 7, Yankees 6

Saturday:
Lake Monsters 2, Yankees 7

Sunday:

Lake Monsters 8, Yankees 10

Notable Performances From The Week:

SS Kyle Holder: 4-26, 2 R 10-22, 2 2B, 3 R, RBI, 4 SB, 5 BB, 3 K

RHP Domingo Acevedo: 5.1 IP, 1 R/ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K

Pulaski Yankees

Friday:
Yankees 3, Braves 2

Saturday:

Yankees 1, Braves 5

Sunday:

Yankees 8, Braves 2

Tuesday:

Yankees 7, Blue Jays 0

Yankees 9, Blue Jays 2

Wednesday:

Yankees 2, Blue Jays 3

Thursday:

Astros 6, Yankees 10

Friday:

Astros 0, Yankees 5

Saturday:

Astros 1, Yankees 8

Sunday:

Yankees 15, Royals 3

Notable Performances From The Week:

CF Carlos Vidal: 17-44, 2 2B, HR, 11 R, 8 RBI, 2 SB, CS, 5 BB, 4 K

SS Hoy Jun Park: 12-39, 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 11 R, 8 RBI, 2 SB, 3 BB, 8 K

RHP David Palladino: 6.0 IP, 2 R/ER, 5 H, BB, 7 K—7.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K

RHP Melvin Morla: 5.0 IP, 0 R/ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 6 K

RHP Nestor Cortes: 5.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 10 K

RHP Adonis Rosa: 5.0 IP, 0 R/ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K

(Photo: Brad Penner-USA Today Sports)

• Luis Severino, RHP: Severino and Judge are essentially 1A and 1B for me, and they can really be flipped around in whatever order one so desires. Severino is dispelling doubts about his long-term viability as a starter that stemmed from his size and arm-heavy delivery. His slider, once a source of worry because it lagged behind his fastball and excellent changeup in its development, has become a more than useful pitch. He’ll make his big league debut today against the Red Sox, and we should be in for one hell of a show. In 61.1 innings at Triple-A, Severino did not allow a single home run and struck out more than a fifth of the hitters he faced. That’ll do. If he can fully put the doubters to rest, he’ll be a frontline starter for years to come.
• Aaron Judge, RF: The mountain of a man known as Aaron Judge has also reached Triple-A Scranton. He mashed his way through the minor leagues after being taken in the 2013 draft as the lowest of the three first round picks the Yankees found themselves in possession of (Eric Jagielo and Ian Clarkin were taken ahead of him). Judge plays a good right field and boasts a great throwing arm in addition to his big bat. He doesn’t sell out for power, instead focusing on a line drive approach and letting his prodigious strength account for him running into hilariously massive home runs. He’s surprisingly spry for a man of his size, and while that will likely fade as he ages, he’s a rather complete player. Judge may see the lion’s share of the playing time in right field next year.
• Greg Bird, 1B: Bird may just be the most intelligent hitter in the system. The man who served as Kevin Gausman’s catcher in high school walks quite a lot while also hitting for great power from the left side. He’s also improved substantially with the glove at first base since being converted from the backstop after the draft. He may not hit for a high average in the big leagues, but a high-OBP power bat with a .265-ish batting average could easily be in the cards here. BP’s Jeff Moore lightly threw a Lucas Duda comp on Bird before Duda turned back into a pumpkin for a while, so there’s that. Bird is a very cerebral hitter and his love for the art will take him a long way. His disposition as a natural leader in the clubhouse is an asset and he should thrive in the limelight of New York.
• Jorge Mateo, SS: It’s possible that while you read this sentence, Mateo is stealing a base. As of this writing he has swiped 71, which leads all of MLB-affiliated baseball. That statistic is probably outdated by now, however. Oh, and he’s hitting .268/.338/.378 at age 20 in Low-A, and playing a decent shortstop. There’s a mountain of potential here, and it’ll be fun to see how much power he grows into as he physically matures, and how much of that speed he’ll keep. Mateo posses one of the very few genuine 80-grade speed tools, and when that’s packaged with a player that can hit and play a legit shortstop, it’s a fantastically dangerous profile.
• James Kaprielian, RHP: Kaprielian was the Yankees’ top pick this summer, taken 16^th overall out of UCLA. While he wasn’t the sexiest of picks, Kaprielian comes with a polished package of four pitches (fastball, slider, curve, changeup) that all grade at least average or better. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he makes it work with his good fastball command that allows him to throw the pitch where he wants and set up his secondary stuff. Kaprielian should move quickly through the system and fill a role in the middle of a big league rotation soon.
• Gary Sanchez, C: It’s been a long road for Sanchez, who’s seemingly been around since the dawn of time. Yet Sanchez is still just 22, and is now hitting well in the upper levels of the minors. He posted a 127 wRC+ in 58 games at Double-A Trenton before being bumped up to Scranton, and he’s now swatting homers left and right. The point against Sanchez has long been his defense, but he’s shown marked improvement behind the plate in both his physical defense and his game calling. Sanchez also still possesses a Howitzer cannon for a throwing arm and loves to show it off. One would have to think that he’s first in line for a callup if an injury should befall Brian McCann.
• Eric Jagielo, 3B: Jagielo was the first of the three Yankee first round picks in 2013, and the Notre Dame product hit his stride offensively before going down with a knee injury at Double-A. Some in the organization are quite down on Jagielo’s work at third base, it should be noted, as he can look almost statuesque at times. Before his injury, he was beginning to see time at first base. However, a 50 bat with plus power will play just about anywhere, if Jagielo can cut down on the number of ugly-looking strikeouts he falls victim to. Jagielo felt like trade-bait before the injury. The organization will likely send him out to the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost time and his performance there will be telling.
• Rob Refsnyder, 2B: Refsnyder is easily one of the most stymieing players in the system. A converted outfielder, Refsnyder lacks some of the basic defensive instincts necessary to succeed at second base. That may not be the final book on him when all is said and done, but it’s certainly the case right now that’s deploying a mixture of Brendan Ryan and Stephen Drew at second base a level above Refsnyder. He seems to have a propensity to rush routine plays and botch double play balls, but at the same time Refsnyder displays an advanced feel for hitting. His meteoric rise through the system last year has predictably not held up this season, but he’s still one of the best hitters on a Triple-A squad that now also features Judge and Bird. He won’t hit for that level of power, but it’s a major league bat. The glove will be the key to whether or not the Yankees view him as a big league player.
• Ian Clarkin, LHP: Nobody is quite sure what sort of arm injury is causing Clarkin to sit out the season. If he were healthy, he would likely be ranked much higher. All of his pitches are average or better, led by his nasty curveball. Clarkin figures to be a member of the front portion of a big league rotation, but that all depends on how he returns from his mysterious ailment. Such his life. He’s still quite active on Twitter, though.
• Brady Lail, RHP: Speaking of meteoric rises, Lail just reached Triple-A at the age of 21. Like Kaprielian, he doesn’t throw overly hard but instead relies on location and movement to keep hitters off balance. The product of a Utah high school known much more for football than baseball, Lail would be just the 40^th big leaguer from the state should he reach the Bronx. Lail is a remarkably coachable pitcher and now that he’s overthrowing his fastball far less, his control of all of his pitches is resulting in quite a lot of weak contact. He’ll likely spend most (if not all) of next year in Scranton refining his craft for the final jump, but the stuff that had made Lail a sleeper has put him directly on the radar.
• Rookie Davis, RHP: Recently promoted to Double-A, Davis has drawn quite a bit of attention for striking out 25.9% of opposing hitters while walking just 4.4% and reaching 96 MPH on his fastball. Though he’s still developing his changeup, Davis’ curve is more than enough for the time being to act as a reliable second offering. The development of the changeup will be what decides whether Davis continues as a starter or turns into a nightmarishly good reliever. Obviously the Yankees hope he can stick in a rotation, but the stuff could play up even more in short stints if all else fails.
• Jacob Lindgren, LHP: Lindgren surfaced briefly in majors this season before being sent down and then sidelined with bone spurs in his elbow. Drafted in the second round in 2014, Lindgren put up eye-popping numbers in the minors in his ascension to Yankee Stadium. His wipeout slider is his calling card that allows him to pitch effectively against batters regardless of handedness, and he can reach 95 on his fastball. What prevents me from being as high on Lindgren as everyone else is his spotty control. What we saw in his time in the big leagues was likely a partial result of those bone spurs, but there’s the potential here for more walks than one would like to see. When he’s right, however, Lindgren also induces a silly amount of ground balls, so there’s closer material here.
• Nick Goody, RHP: I was sorely, sorely tempted to rank Goody higher, and this is undoubtedly the highest you’ll see him ranked anywhere. It could very overzealous, but I’ve seen enough of Goody to drink the Kool-Aid. Whenever he was inserted into a game at Double-A, Goody was basically a cheat code. Over 41.2 innings, he struck out 59 and walked 14. At the time of his promotion to Scranton, he led the whole team in strikeouts, including the starters. He’s been just as good at Scranton, and the control issues he’s had in his very brief cameos in the bigs this month are likely a result of simple jitters. Goody’s makeup is through the roof, so don’t expect that to last. He does it all without throwing overly hard, instead relying on movement and a plus curveball to get his work done. I can’t heap enough praise upon this player.
• Hoy Jun Park, SS: Signed out of South Korea last year in the Yankees’ international spending bonanza, Park is playing in short-season Pulaski at age 19. There’s plenty of growth left here, but Park is already a plus defender at shortstop and holding his own at the plate. He walks at an encouraging clip and some more power should come as he fills out more. An assignment to Charleston to start next year would not be surprising. Park may end up as a glove-first player when all is said and done, but his bat will be more than enough. He’s certainly one to watch next year.
• Tyler Wade, 2B/SS: Take everything about Park and flip it on its head. Wade can hit and hit and hit some more. His bat just got him promoted to Trenton last night. Wade’s problem is fielding. He’s got the range to stick at shortstop, but a high number of errors highlight his need to improve the steadiness of his hands if he wants to stick at the position. The good news is that he’s just 20 years old, so he’s been young for his level and the promotion to Double-A only accentuates that more. Wade has plenty of time to steady himself, and could turn into quite a fun player. He and Park can be easily flipped in these rankings without any loss of sleep.

Some other players to keep an eye on are outfielders Dustin Fowler and Mark Payton, injured catcher Luis Torrens (who would have likely made the list if he was healthy), infielders Thairo Estrada, Abi Avelino, Kyle Holder, and Miguel Andujar, and a gaggle of pitchers including Bryan Mitchell, Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Holder, Cale Coshow, Domingo Acevedo, Drew Finley and Jeff Degano. Things are getting exciting down on the farm.

(Photo: Kim Klement-USA Today Sports)

It was definitely frustrating in 2014 to watch the final form of Brian Roberts bumble about for half a season only to somehow still perform better than a supposedly still-in-his-prime Drew when the Yankees acquired him at the trade deadline. For certain prospect lovers, it was particularly galling because the Yankees had someone playing the exact same position as Roberts and Drew in the minors who happened to be hitting the tar out of the ball. Enter 2012 fifth round pick Rob Refsnyder.

At 23-years-old and in just his third professional season, Refsnyder had a breakout performances, as he hit .342/.385/.548 with a .303 TAv in Double-A Trenton, his first taste above A-ball. A June promotion to Triple-A Scranton hardly slowed him down, either. In 77 games the rest of the way, he continued his assault on minor league pitching with a .300/.389/.456 triple slash and a .291 TAv. Scouting analysts raved about his approach at the plate. Chris Mellen and the BP staff noted that he had a “line drive stroke” with “strong knowledge of the strike zone,” and a natural intelligence for the game. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranked him the 8th best second base prospect in baseball, agreeing that his hitting “translates into consistent line drives to all fields.” The Yankees eventually named Refsnyder their top minor league position player of the year in 2014.

So if Refsnyder tore up the minors so much, why did the Yankees re-sign Drew, and why is he still in Triple-A to begin the 2015 campaign? Unfortunately, Refsnyder’s defense leaves a lot to be desired. While he was a second baseman in high school, he patrolled right field during his collegiate days at Arizona for good reason. The Yankees felt that his bat would play a lot better at second than in a corner outfield spot, so he moved back to the infield at the start of the 2013 season. His shaky defense was on full display in spring training this year, as this was just one of his several fielding miscues:

Throughout the spring, Refsnyder made a team-high six errors and simply looked awkward around the position, even on successful plays. Callis and Mayo wrote in the off-season that Refsnyder “has made progress there, but still struggles with his footwork and probably won’t become more than an adequate defender.” Although the linked clip was just one play out of many, it highlights those problems at the keystone on double plays. Some people might cite stats like his mere three errors in 245 chances at Triple-A last year and an improved range factor, but that’s not enough to fly in the face of all the negative scouting reports, which are far more reliable. Refsnyder’s defense is probably better than it was in 2013, but boy, is that faint praise.

Given his present Acme brand glove, adding Refsnyder to the Yankees’ current roster would clearly just be rushing him. He’s not ready defensively, and GM Brian Cashman has made no secret of the fact that working on it will be his path to the big leagues. A common counterargument some fans have mentioned is represented by 2005 Robinson Cano. Like Refsnyder, Cano was a second baseman who never made a Top 100 Prospect list and whose opportunity opened up by no clear solution for second at the big league level.

Ten years ago, it was Tony Womack in the Opening Day second base job, but by May 3rd with the team stumbling at 11-15, Cano was promoted while Womack and fan favorite Bernie Williams saw their playing time cut. Cano was red hot in Triple-A Columbus at the time with a .333/.368/.574 triple slash over the season’s first month while Womack and Bernie were only hitting .282/.330/.329 and .247/.324/.312, respectively. (While Bernie rebounded somewhat, Womack’s game would amazingly plummet far further into the depths of hell to become one of the worst players in franchise history. He was somehow traded in the off-season to the Reds for minor leaguers with a pulse.) Cano finished runner-up to Huston Street in Rookie of the Year voting that season thanks to a steady bat that carried him to a .266 TAv, 2.7 WARP season despite defensive problems that lingered in his game for the next four years.

So the logic goes “if it worked with Cano a decade ago, why couldn’t it work for Refsnyder now?” It certainly could work–baseball can be surprising like that. However, the Canos of the world who weren’t heralded at all during their minor league days are the exceptions rather than the rule. There also seems to be a misconception about Cano’s arrival turning the 2005 Yankees offense around. The team did, in fact, recover to win their eighth consecutive AL East crown with a major league best 84-52 record from Cano’s arrival onward. Cano was definitely an improvement over Womack, but it wasn’t him that made them play over .600 ball.

The 2005 Yankees had 111 team wRC+ prior to his call-up and a 116 wRC+ afterward. Yes, it was better, but they were already great. This was an 886-run team that was absolutely stacked on offense with eventual MVP Alex Rodriguez, AL Comeback Player of the Year Jason Giambi, ’04 MVP runner-up Gary Sheffield, ’06 MVP runner-up Derek Jeter, not to mention solid seasons from Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada. Like Cano, they were also not good on defense, so they needed every bit of offense to squeak out a division title.

Refsnyder would not be arriving in a similar situation at all. The 2015 Yankees offense has some useful parts who can reasonably be counted on in Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Chase Headley. Beyond them though, there are the quickly declining bats of Brian McCann, Mark Teixiera, and in particular, Carlos Beltran. Oh, and a mysterious version of A-Rod who will turn 40 in July, has played professionally just two months in the past two seasons, and is operating on twice surgically repaired hips. Even if Refsnyder is called up now and produces at a 2005 Cano-like level (far from a guarantee with hitting in the majors more difficult than it has been in decades), it’s probably not going to be enough to be what pushes a presently projected .500 team over the edge. They need their primary starters to produce in order to make that happen.

So for now, it’s best that the Yankees adhere to former BP prospect analyst Kevin Goldstein’s rule of rushing prospects as little as possible and just let Refsnyder work on the kinks in the minors. Like the big league club, he’s already off to an unpromising start anyway.
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