May 26 vs. Toronto

Here are the pitches Sabathia used.

You will notice that he’s completely abandoned his four-seam fastball. In fact, according to Brooks Baseball, Sabathia hasn’t used his four-seamer this entire month. He’s relied on his sinker, slider, cutter and changeup. During Thursday’s game, he used his sinker the most (41 percent), followed by his slider (25 percent), cutter (22 percent) and change (12 percent).

And how successful were those pitches? He struck out three batters with his sinker, two on his cutter and two on his slider. No one reached base on his cutter or slider, and both base hits were off his sinker. Both strike outs off his slider were against lefty Michael Saunders who struck swinging in the second and third.

Another thing that worked in Sabathia’s favor on Thursday was the way he mixed his pitches. The heat also seemed to help him. Sabathia has said in the past that he prefers warmer weather and that he helps him get loose. He hit some of his highest numbers on the radar all season on Thursday.

He was averaging 91.5 mph on his sinker with a high of 93.9 mph.

May 20 vs. Oakland

Sabathia had a strong performance his first start off the disabled list against Oakland. He lasted six innings, gave up one earned run on three hits, walked a batter and struck out a season high of eight. Sabathia relied on his sinker, throwing it 39 percent of the time. And on that day, his pitches were averaging between 80-89 mph, but he did a good job of mixing and matching, and using his split and cutter the same amount (22 percent).

The A’s whiffed against Sabathia 13 times that day: five times on the sinker, four on the change, three on the slider and one on the cutter. Some were multiple-strikeout victims on the day; Marcus Semien and Stephen Vogt went down looking and swinging while Billy Butler went down swinging both times.

Butler went down first on a slider in the third inning, and on a sinker in a sixth. Sabathia only threw sinkers in that at bat and Butler chased three out of the four.

May 4 vs. Baltimore

This was the last start before Sabathia went on the disabled list and it was a good one. He pitched seven innings, gave up six hits, didn’t surrender a run, walked two and struck out six.

During this start, CC spread the wealth so to speak, not relying on one pitch much more than the others. As he’s done all month, he threw more sinkers (29 percent), his cutter was second at (27 percent), followed by the slider (22 percent) and the change (21 percent).

He also spread the wealth with his strikeouts. Only Caleb Joseph struck out twice, but all six strikeouts that Sabathia generated that day were of the swinging variety. Four of the six were on his change, one on the cutter and on a slider—Joseph’s second strikeout of the day. Actually, Joseph only swung at one pitch that at bat: the slider.

It’s exciting and heartwarming to see CC Sabathia doing what he’s doing right now. So many people buried him last season, and after what he went through in the offseason, the results we’re seeing on the field were almost unimaginable before the season began. If he keeps this up, Sabathia could reclaim the title of ace of the Yankees’ pitching staff.

Photo Credit: Adam Hunger / USA TODAY Sports

Markov Chains is a model that describes a sequence of possible events, in which the probability of each event depends on the state attained in the previous event. It is also the model that we will use to predict the type of pitch pitchers will throw.

Considering this site covers the Yankees, some might say the following analysis would be best applied for scouting opposing teams. For instance, if Yankee hitters knew what pitch was coming next or at least knew the probability of each pitch being thrown by opposing pitchers, they could better prepare for the daily pitching matchups. Since the Yankees play a new team every four to five days it would be tedious to constantly post these pitch type probabilities here at BP Bronx. I will leave that particular analysis to the Yankees front office. Instead, I will look at the predictive pitch types of Yankee pitchers. This might actually be more beneficial to Yankee fans considering it might provide a little more insight into the strategy of the pitcher.

The intention is to predict the pitches of Yankee starters and as I mentioned before, the PITCHf/x data applied to the Markov Chain model holds the key to accomplishing this goal. The current rotation includes Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino and CC Sabathia. We will explore this pitching succession one by one in order to see how effective each pitcher is at mixing their pitch types.

Note: PITCHf/x data is from the 2015 and 2016 season up to April 11, 2016.

Michael Pineda

Michael Pineda technically has a pitch repertoire that consists of five pitches; a four-seamer, two-seamer, changeup, slider and cutter. In reality — when we look at the usage of these pitch types — Pineda only throws two pitches. As you can see from the table below he throws his four-seam fastball and slider 75 percent of the time.

Important Note: The pitch types are listed according to PITCHf/x classifications. Brooks Baseball shows Pineda throws more of a cut-fastball then a four-seamer. In this analysis, I extracted the cut-fastball’s based on their increased horizontal movement and left the one’s with less movement as four-seamers. My reasoning is that even if he is trying to throw a cutter, if it doesn’t move much it is being viewed by the batter as more of a four-seam fastball.

Overall Pitch Type Usage

Since Pineda mainly only throws the four-seamer and the slider, the batter typically only has to concern himself with two pitches. This is not necessarily a bad trait as long as he has overpowering stuff. The question then becomes, does Michael Pineda have overpowering stuff? The answer is more complicated than a simple yes or no.

Yes, Pineda throws hard. In fact, his average four-seam fastball velocity ranks 26th amongst qualified starting pitchers according to 2016 PITCHf/x data (Side note: there are around 25 starting pitchers with a fastball only one mph less than Pineda’s 92.8 mph four-seamer). Yes, his slider is nasty. Its average velocity ranks 34th amongst qualified starters and the horizontal and vertical movement of the pitch is well above league average. On paper it would seem his main pitches could overwhelm batters, but the optics do not always bear the resemblance. As Nicolas Stellini pointed out in this game recap from April 24, 2016, Pineda can miss – especially with his fastball – right down the center of the plate. Any major-league level hitter and even most Triple-A players would be able to handle that pitch quite often.

While Pineda has some execution issues when it comes to throwing his pitches he has shown flashes of success as Max Gelman pointed out in a previous article. Getting back to the focal point of this examination, let’s look at how Pineda has seen success with mixing his pitch sequence. Review the matrix below which shows us the predicted probabilities of each one of Pineda’s pitch types based on the previous pitch thrown.

Predicted Pitch Type Probabilities

For a player that relies so heavily on just two pitches Pineda does a pretty good job of blending them so that batters cannot anticipate the next pitch. As you can see, the most predictable pitches are the fastball and slider, but the probability of Pineda throwing one of those pitches based on his previously thrown pitch is nearly the same for each pitch type. In this respect, one could say Pineda is better than Masahiro Tanaka – the Yankees defacto ace – at being unpredictable especially considering Tanaka has a more extensive pitch weaponry (See analysis of Tanaka). However, as I mentioned in a similar post about Tanaka, the Yankee catchers might have just as much to do with pitch type selection and sequencing as the pitchers themselves. The pitcher is still ultimately responsible for his own success and failure so if a problem is caused by poor pitch sequencing it is up to the pitcher to make sure it is corrected.

If we look at Pineda’s first pitch offerings we get a glimpse of one pitch that might be predictable.

Pitch Type Probability of the First Pitch

He throws the fastball for the first pitch 48.4 percent of the time going back to the beginning of the 2015 season. If you include the cutter in the “fastball” class that number moves up to around 65 percent. Needless to say, opposing teams with this information are relaying to their hitters to look for first pitch fastballs when facing Pineda.

The only other pitch type that I can see that might allow a batter to foresee Pineda’s next pitch is the changeup. Pineda doesn’t throw the changeup that often – about 11.5 percent of the time – but when he does the model predicts with a probability of 43.8 percent that the next pitch will be a slider. Granted, there is a 33 percent chance it will be a fastball, but it is basically the only pitch – besides the first pitch fastball – that leads to any decent measure of predictability. If a batter where to see the changeup and afterword still maintains an advantage in the count he might consider taking the next pitch. He would take knowing the next pitch has a solid chance of being a slider and that Pineda rarely throws the slider for a strike.

At the beginning of my analysis I thought that Pineda would be more predictable than most pitchers because he really only uses two pitches. Now it is clear that my mind was playing tricks on me. Going forward, my hypothesis – with regards to analyzing the predictability of other pitchers – is that the more types of pitches a pitcher throws the more likely it is to find sequences of predictability.

Photo: Adam Hunger / USA Today Sports

Here’s what we know about Eovaldi’s stuff: He throws the ball very hard. The only starter in baseball whose four seam velocity was harder than Eovaldi’s in 2015 was Noah Syndergaard of the Mets.

Here are the Top 10 starters in four seam velocity last season:

Sometimes it seems like Eovaldi is the flashy writer who always uses big words to convey thoughts and theories that aren’t necessarily complex. Less is more in a lot of cases and a writer will sometimes describe something in 10 words when they easily could have done it in five. Eovaldi is the same way when he pitches. Sure, his hard pitches are great and they appear to be quite impressive when batters are swinging through them, but sometimes those looks can be deceiving because when they’re not swinging through them, they’re hitting the ball all over the place.

I decided to look at every pitch he’s ever thrown in one table, just to see where he likes to pitch the most. As you can see, Eovaldi really likes pitching to the strike zone.

That’s not a bad thing if you have otherworldly stuff, but Eovaldi isn’t quite there yet. Last season batters had a .276 TAv off Eovaldi, and in his one start this season, they have a .310 TAv. Small sample size, yes, but there is something else that I noticed when looking at his career numbers. Eovaldi added a splitter to his repertoire last season, seemingly out of nowhere, and as you can see below, he completely abandoned his changeup.

J.P. Breen wrote back in March about Eovaldi, “For a pitcher who used to be a two-pitch guy and arguably would’ve been better suited in the bullpen, such a change in repertoire is unbelievable.” And it is unbelievable, but what needs to happen for Eovaldi to be successful is for all three of those pitches—the four seamer, the slider and the splitter—to work. If he can get his pitches to work, he may be able to last longer as a starter.

During his first start against the Astros on April 7, it was more of the same for Eovaldi: There were some flashes of greatness, some awful pitches that were hit out of the park, and he only lasted five innings because a couple of bad innings drove up his pitch count. But there was one positive that day. He didn’t walk a batter.

Eovaldi didn’t allow a baserunner during the top of the first inning against Houston, but Carlos Correa’s at bat was a harbinger of things to come. Correa took Eovaldi’s fourth offering, a 90.7 mph slider that got a lot of the plate, to the warning track for a very long, and frightening third out.

Eovaldi teased everyone by starting off strong in the second striking out both Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez. Everyone should have known better because things aren’t usually that easy for Mr. Eovaldi. He immediately ran into trouble when Luis Valbuena hit a two-out double off a 90.3 mph slider. He then ran into even more trouble when Tyler White hit an 87.9 mph splitter for a two-run home run, and Preston Tucker immediately followed hitting his own solo home run off an 89.5 mph slider. All three pitches were in the strike zone.

Eovaldi also had a rough top of the fourth when he gave up a single to Rasmus, a double to Gomez and a two-run single to White. He exited the game after a 1-2-3 fifth inning to 5-4 deficit after having thrown 94 pitches.

So, can Eovaldi be better? That first start is a good representation of Eovaldi’s career to-date. He’s style over substance, continuing the writing analogy, and he hasn’t quite figured out how to put it together. He’s just 26, and he’s been a league-average pitcher for his career, so there is hope for more. But in order for Nathan Eovaldi to be successful in 2016, he needs to learn how to mix his pitches better, and he will need his slider to slide and his somewhat new splitter to split, otherwise, this could be a very long season.

Lead photo Credit: Gregory J. Fisher/ USA TODAY Sports

What To Watch For: Pitch type selection by Yankee hitters

This is an easy one for viewers to watch out for at home or at the local watering hole. Each hitter has certain pitch types they handle more successfully than others. Each hitter should be – and presumably is – aware of that one pitch they are looking for at the beginning of each plate appearance. With that being said, opposing pitchers should also be savvy to the types of pitches that will have the best chance of producing an unsuccessful at-bat. Pitch selection, in my opinion, is at worst overrated and at best overlooked when it comes to understanding the success rate of plate appearances. It is imperative that Yankee hitters take a “pitch-type-selection” mentality every single time they come to the plate. By this I mean they need to make sure they are swinging at the types pitches of which they perform the best. To better prove my point, let’s take a look at  last season.

The chart reveals the best pitch for each Yankee batter in 2015. By this, I mean the pitch type on which they were able to contribute the greatest amount of run production. The best pitches were determined by using pitch type linear weights – calculated from PITCHf/x data – to determine how well each batter performed against each pitch type they faced. I also used the standardization of runs produced per 100 pitches so that pitch frequency wouldn’t skew the numbers. In other words, the values represented in the chart are the mean runs above average each hitter contributed against that particular pitch last season per 100 pitches. Needless to say – and this goes for most hitters – the fastball is the pitch Yankees hitters should look to swing at the most. Note, PITCHf/x often confuses the sinker and two seam so one could classify these two pitches as the same for the purpose of this analysis.

So when you’re watching a game this season and you see one of these guys take a fastball in the zone or if he swings and fouls it off know that he might have missed his best pitch in that plate appearance. Interestingly enough Starlin Castro and Aaron Hicks both seem to perform the best against the changeup. I would speculate that bat speed might be the reason, but this is research for a later date.

We know a good number of hitters look for fastballs and for the most part pitchers send that pitch to the plate more than any other pitch. Knowing these facts, the chart above should seem logical. Things get a little more interesting when looking at the second best pitch for each hitter.

For some of the batters, the second best pitch is just a shift from one type of fastball to another. Hitters like A-Rod, Headley, Beltran and McCann need to perform well against the fastball or risk being forced to swing at pitches they can’t handle as well. Other hitters like Gardner and Ackley can handle the curveball so it may not be as imperative that they hit the fastball though it is still recommended.

My suggestion would be, while watching a game pay attention to what the player swings at if he misses an early opportunity to hit a fastball. For example, if Brett Gardner were to find himself in this exact scenario where he misses his best pitch – the two seam fastball – then he should consider looking to swing at the curveball. The run production above replacement level is much lower for him on this pitch, but it is the pitch in which he sees the second most success. Obviously not every pitcher throws the same pitch. In our hypothetical the pitcher Gardner is facing may not throw a curveball and in that case he would have to do his best to find a way on base. Also, two strike counts warrant a different approach. In this case, the hitter must battle any pitch – no matter the type – as long as it is in the zone.

Like I said before, this exercise is really nothing more than giving you something else to look for when your watching games. Hopefully, it helps you understand what might be going through the mind of Yankee batters when they swing at certain pitches and lay off others. While this might not seem very important to the overall success of a player, keep in mind that over the course of the season these little pitch type battles add up and can even become magnified during high leverage situations and in the post-season.

Lead photo: Gregory Fisher / USA Today Sports