To be fair to the team, they have received players in return, it wasn’t simply a matter of a couple of pitchers making a run for it. Although that story would be significantly more interesting, it would also set some dangerous precedents regarding team control.

In trades with the Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers the Yankees have relinquished reliable swingman Adam Warren and dynamic left-handed reliever Justin Wilson. The first was a move to fill a hole at second base, the second a more puzzling push to acquire some young arms.

For a team that had such a good offence last year and suspect pitching at times, on the surface the Yankees do not appear to be dealing from a position of strength. It’s hard to make a prediction as to whether they can sustain these losses to their pitching staff because that will depend on a number of tricky variables, health being foremost among them.

What we can do is try to surmise the size of the hole the team has opened up within it’s own pitching staff by jettisoning Warren and Wilson. In order to do that we’re going to squish Wilson and Warren together into one Frankenpitcher named either Justin Warren or Adam Wilson (both are equally boring generic white guy names so take your pick) and compare him to other pitchers around the league last year to help conceptualize the void the Yankees have created.

Unless you have some kind of rare illiteracy that makes you unable to read headlines, and yet perfectly capable of getting about 280 words into a story you know what I’m getting at here. Our “Justin Warren” character looked an awful lot like Pirates starter Francisco Liriano last season.

It’s worth noting that a direct comparison like this is unfair because the pitchers were deployed differently. Liriano was used exclusively as a starter whereas Wilson and Warren were used a great deal out of the bullpen. However, the two Yankees pitched in a much more difficult environment which helps account for their similar WAR numbers despite different roles.

There are other holes to be poked in this chart as well. Realistically speaking, it is not a masterwork of statistical analysis. It will not significantly deepen your understanding of baseball and for that I am profoundly sorry.

Comparing Warren and Wilson to Liriano is simply a tool to help us conceptualize and perceive the loss of these two pitchers a little differently. If the Pittsburgh Pirates had lost Liriano in free agency pundits would be spending a great deal of ink and breath determining what ought to be done to replace him. Because the Yankees’ loss comes in the form of two relatively unheralded pitchers the perceived impact is not nearly the same as losing one prominent starter would be.

Warren and Wilson are both coming off career years and it’s more than likely they won’t produce in 2016 the way the did in 2015. That said, in order to replicate last year’s pitching performance the Yankees are already missing one Liriano-sized chunk of innings, even if it is a slightly different shape.

In past off-seasons the team would simply use free agency to plug a leak like this, but this year it seems less likely they’ll go that route. Instead they’ll probably have to find that production internally, which is a tall task.

After all, it’s pretty hard to whip up a Francisco Liriano type out of thin air.

(Photo: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports)

Headley, to put it lightly, fell flat on his face, both offensively and defensively. His performance on both sides of the ball were disappointing, so it’s not surprising that he had such a poor season. Not only did Headley have the worst season of his career since 2009, when he was a rookie, but it was also his most unproductive season both offensively and defensively.

What happened in 2015

Headley’s bat has never been the strong part of his game, and at best is a bit above league-average, but it took a turn for the worse in 2015. His .259/.324/.369/.693 slash line was not only noticeably worse than his career averages, but his on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS were all below league averages (his batting average was just .005 higher). His 91 wRC+ and -6.1 Off (offensive runs above average) were also both career worst marks. A big reason for his career-low .324 OBP was a walk percentage of 7.9 percent, and his 11 HR and .110 ISO also tied his lowest ever. Headley wasn’t expected to be a stolen base threat, but his seven stolen bases in 2014 gave way to a goose egg last season. Obviously, the trend here is that everything is at or near a career worst, and that’s not an encouraging start. His offense didn’t need to be much more than average though, because of his plus glove. Which he still has, right? Right?

Well… Headley’s glove is what really sank his value. From 2010 to 2014, Headley averaged six defensive runs saved (DRS) at third base, which was well above average. In 2015, Headley had a (wait for it) career worst season on defense, headlined by a terrible -6 defensive runs saved. Headley, who was supposed to bring plus defense to the hot corner in New York, was actually six runs worse than the average third baseman. Another way to look at his struggles is through UZR, where he logged a -3 mark. Okay, so it’s not his worst season (that belongs to his -3.8 UZR in 2011) but it’s not even close to his 20.9 UZR in 2014. Errors are generally an imperfect statistic for evaluating fielders, but a mind-numbing 23 errors in 2015, which is 10 more than he’s ever had before, is definitely worth mentioning. The split between fielding and throwing errors was fairly equal, as it has been throughout his playing days.

It’s easy to see why Chase Headley’s 2015 was his worst season yet. He very likely had his worst season since 2009 both on offense and on defense. The value he was costing his team wasn’t easily apparent on the field, as his offensive struggles were masked by low expectations going into last season to begin with, and his defensive miscues weren’t terribly obvious or egregious. It doesn’t matter how quiet his struggles are, though, because they are very real.

What to expect in 2016

On offense, it’s hard to see too much of a bounce back. Yes, Headley still has the talent to return to league average at the plate, and his extensive track record supports this notion. But still, his offensive upside is terribly uninspiring. His power is unlikely to surpass the low teens, and his batting average probably will sit in the .260s. What could cause the biggest swing in value at the plate is his plate discipline. Headley will need to get on base more to be valuable, since he won’t provide much production from the power department, and a career low 7.9 walk percentage isn’t going to cut it.  It’s not hard to see him improve upon this low walk rate. Headley had a .317 BABIP in 2015, so he didn’t experience any overly bad luck as a hitter. One sabermetric that shows just how much worse of a hitter Headley was in 2015 was his hard contact rate, which plummtered from 35.1 percent (in 2014) to just 27.8 percent. It was a rough year for Headley, with a drop in quality contact and plate discipline. If he can’t improve in those departments, Headley could once again be a liability at the plate.

Defense is much harder to project for Headley. His decline in value may have been due to some nagging injuries, but the worst case scenario for the Yankees is that the 31-year old has lost a step in the field due to age. Headley may come back in better shape and healthy next season, but that’s hardly a given. While physically he may have declined, his skills are unlikely to have eroded so significantly over the course of just a year. So, although a full bounce back isn’t likely, he could see some improvement. In addition,  Headley has been inconsistent from year to year on defense, and there’s a chance that last season was more of a fluke, and 2016 will be an improvement. That said, there’s a lot of ifs involved in his 2016 projections, and plenty of volatility. The scary thing about Headley is that he’s not volatile in a low-floor/high-upside kind of way. Headley doesn’t really have upside at this point, but he has plenty of downside. The risk and reward just don’t balance out, making Headley’s contract and the Yankees’ future at third base a risky proposition.

 (Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports)

Yesterday, the Yankees shipped the reliable Adam Warren and exuberant Brendan Ryan off to Chicago in exchange for the services of soon to be 26-year-old Starlin Castro. Today, they’ve traded reliever Justin Wilson to the Detroit Tigers for righthanded pitching prospects Luis Cessa and Chad Green. Cessa will be added to the 40-man roster.

Wilson was acquired in exchange for Francisco Cervelli last off-season, and cemented himself as the third option in the bullpen in 2015. He was actually more effective against righties (.216 BAA) than lefties (.236), but as those two numbers show, got both out with regularity.

In 61 innings, his SO-to-BB ratio was 3.30, his PWARP was sixth among all Yankees pitchers at 1.7 and his VORP sat at a solid 15.8.

Who the Yankees get:

Green, 24, is probably a bit closer than Cessa, 23, is to helping out in the major leagues, but both could realistically make it there relatively soon, given the revolving door at the back-end of the pitching staff. Both have been starting down in the minor leagues.

The Tigers acquired Cessa, their No. 10 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, along with Michael Fulmer in a trade for Yoenis Cespedes last season. He can hit 95-96 mph with his fastball but will likely hover around 92-93 mph if he starts. He also features a solid changeup and a curveball. He was a bit erratic in Triple-A last season, with an 8.51 ERA in five starts with the Las Vegas 51s before settling down a bit in seven starts with the Toledo Mud Hens (5.97 ERA).

Green came in at No. 20 on the Tigers MLB.com prospect list, and was a lot more stable last year than Cessa, going 5-14 with a 3.93 ERA in 148.2 innings. Like Cessa, his fastball is solid, but he needs to work on his secondary pitches, something Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild is very helpful with.

What it means:

Without Warren and Wilson, the Yankees are now left with no clear-cut No. 3 option in the bullpen behind Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, rather a handful of candidates to step up and take the job.  In order to replace him, the Yankees don’t necessarily need to find a lefthander, but they do need to find someone who can come close to posting that 1.7 PWARP.

There appears to be confidence in the organization that either Chasen Shreve, Jacob Lindgreen, Bryan Mitchell or James Pazos could eventually help fill in the role. If you’d have presented Joe Girardi that list in July, he’d easily go with Shreve, but his stumble to the finish line last season leaves plenty of questions. It’s unlikely he can survive that type of usage.

Before taking a line drive to the head, Mitchell’s stint in the bullpen had been going swimmingly, with just three runs allowed in 9.1 innings. There’s no way of knowing how the incident will affect him going forward, but he seems to be the most trustworthy of the bunch.

Lindgren, 22, flashed the raw ability to get hitters out in seven short innings, but he’s too young and too unpolished. Pazos might be a guy, but we didn’t really get a good look at him last year.

What happens next:

Well, for one, there might be more trades coming—maybe even some for relievers, or a starter.

Cashman after Wilson deal: I’m not done

— Andrew Marchand (@AndrewMarchand) December 10, 2015

Cashman said he has “a lot of things” in the air. Sounds like there could be some sort of announcement tonight.

— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) December 9, 2015

The Yankees will likely take a dip in the free-agent reliever market to patch some holes. According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, they’ve checked in on old friend Rafael Soriano. I ran through some possible signings here, though a few names (Lowe, Soria) are gone. Shawn Kelley might be somewhere to look, as well as Antonio Bastardo, who can really get lefties out.

It doesn’t seem incredibly likely the Yankees will look in-house for a pitcher to handle the seventh inning, though it’s not out of the question they are reluctant to add an arm from this free agent pool. A trade is most likely on the horizon for a starter, which would move CC Sabathia or Ivan Nova to the bullpen.

(Photo: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports)

Adam Warren

Adam Warren, 28, profiles best as a swingman, and he filled that role last season for the Yankees. Under team control until 2019, he had a 3.29 ERA in 131.1 innings, with 17 starts. The swingman tends to be undervalued in the majors, and Warren was a savior to the bullpen, providing stability and a bridge to Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller. He was stretched out this offseason, and could have been a fourth or fifth starter for the Yankees in 2016. Warren earned 2.7 WAR last season, and 1.4 the year before while being used exclusively as a reliever.

Brendan Ryan

Ryan is an elite glove at shortstop, but was unlikely to see much playing time behind Didi Gregorious. He’s also injury prone and lacks any semblance of a hit tool. His inclusion in the deal was most likely just to balance money.

Starlin Castro

Starlin Castro broke into the league as a 20-year-old, flashing a plus bat and plus speed, along with modest power. The Cubs hoped he could develop into a top bat with 15/20 potential at shortstop. Like many top prospects, he did not live up to expectations, but that doesn’t mean Castro was a bust. Now, just 25, Castro has an impressive 991 career hits. He also has a .281 batting average and .321 on base percentage. Castro does not run as much as he used to, and has just nine steals over the past two seasons. He also has struggled making routine plays at shortstop, profiling ideally as a second baseman.

Castro also disappointed last season in the first half, eventually being benched by the Cubs. He bounced back big time in the second half though, and had a .295/.319/.464/.783 slash line after the All-Star Break. Should Castro be able to pick up where he left off in 2015, the Yankees can expect above average production at second base from Castro. While not a wizard with the glove, he did have two defensive runs saved in his first year at second base in 2015, and has the talent to be an above average player on the field. As mentioned before, Castro is only 25, despite being in the big leagues for six full seasons, and is signed to a reasonable contract through 2020. He earned just 0.8 WAR last season, but 2.8 in 2014.

The Verdict

Strictly comparing WAR values, this looks like a steal for the Cubs. In reality, though, it looks to be a very good deal for both sides. Warren is likely to be a swingman for the Cubs, and while a reliever that doesn’t pitch in the eighth or ninth inning can only be so valuable, his presence will be missed in New York. Castro fills a serious position of need for the Yankees, and provides an athletic and young duo with Didi Gregorious in the middle of the infield. Brian Cashman has stayed true to his word to get younger and cheaper, and Starlin Castro is certainly a more appealing option than free agents such as Ben Zobrist (now signed to the Cubs), Daniel Murphy, and Howie Kendrick. Castro is riskier than Warren and has had his fair share of ups and downs over his career, so there’s a chance the bottom falls out on this deal. Castro also has plenty of upside, so the risk/reward balances out pretty evenly.  The Yankees will really see a difference now at second base, with hopefully receiving some positive production at the position. All in all, this trade works out the way trades should work out, with both teams filling needs and swapping similar value players.

(Photo: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports)

All offseason long the Yankees have said that they are more likely to try to improve the team by making a trade rather than a big money free agent signing and so far they don’t appear to be bluffing. New York entered the Winter Meetings having already added outfielder Aaron Hicks from the Minnesota Twins in a trade and the club has avoided any signings beside adding Pete Kozma on a minor league contract.

Acquiring Castro ends anymore talk of the Yankees going with a platoon of Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder at second base and possibly makes the latter available (yes, more trades). Castro, 25, fits the Yankees goal of getting younger and more athletic, but because of the extension he signed with Chicago he’s not exactly cheap. He’s owed $38 million over the next four seasons with a team option for $16 million in 2020 and with no money coming from Chicago in the deal the Yankees will absorb the entirety of the contract. His addition also shows the Yankees reluctance to actually go with a rookie starter like Refsnyder, who turns 25 before next season, as Castro is close in age but is entering his seventh major league season.

Castro is a career .281/.321/.404 hitter with a career .259 TAv. He’s made the all-star team three times in six seasons with the Cubs. Castro was very productive in his first three years in the majors, but has since struggled badly in two of the past three years. In his first three big league seasons, Castro provided 10.4 WARP compared to just 5.1 WARP in his last three seasons. On the bright side, at least Castro had a strong finish in 2015 as he hit .295/.319/.464 in the second half.

Castro was the Cubs regular shortstop for years until the arrival of Addison Russell. He started 29 games at second base for Chicago in 2015. His ability to play shortstop gives the Yankees options when putting together the roster for 2016 as his presence made carrying a backup shortstop like Brendan Ryan unnecessary and likely prompted his inclusion in the deal. Depending on how comfortable the Yankees are with Ackley’s infield defense, he could be the lone backup infielder on the Yankees bench.

The Yankees parted with Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan in the deal. With Warren projected to make $1.5 million in arbitration this year and Ryan locked into a $1 million salary, the Yankees are only adding about $5.3 million to their payroll given Castro’s $7.8 million salary for 2016. $5.3 million is less than what it took for the Detroit Tigers to acquire Francisco Rodriguez, Cameron Maybin, and Mike Pelfrey individually. So the Yankees were able to fill the biggest opening in their lineup without really taking on a major financial commitment.

On the other hand, the Yankees had to give up Warren, which couldn’t have been easy. Warren’s 2.4 WARP in 2015 was higher than Castro’s 1.5 number. He did a remarkable job of filling in wherever the Yankees needed him as he started 17 games and appeared in 43 total games with a 3.43 DRA. While the Yankees had said previously that Warren would enter Spring Training as a starter, without him the rotation includes Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, and Ivan Nova. Like Ryan, Warren was also very well liked in the Yankees clubhouse. Here’s what Alex Rodriguez said about Warren pitching in the playoffs this past season.

(Photo: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports)

However, despite the massive infusion of fresh blood Major League Baseball has done a very poor job of marketing its new stars. Moreover, baseball fandom is more predicated on nostalgia than any other sport. As a result, the two most recognizable names in the major leagues right now are likely Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz.

Both Rodriguez and Ortiz have had tremendous careers and deserve the attention they get, but it seems bizarre that the most pop-culture relevant players in the game are in their forties. During a golden age of emerging stars the public remains fixated on aged one-dimensional sluggers. It is remarkable that the pair has remained productive at the plate long into their supposed decline years, but they are just a couple of full-time designated hitters clinging to their one remaining skill, shoehorned into the only position in the major leagues they are capable of filing.

However, once in a very long while necessity forces them out of the DH role and into the field like mere mortals. It is this rare development I want to discuss today. Last season, the New York Yankees tried A-Rod at first base for the first time in an effort to create some additional flexibility for the slugger. He played all of 9.2 innings at the position, but it got me thinking, is he already a better bet defensively at first base than the ancient full-time DH in Boston?

Ortiz has a clear advantage when it comes to experience, but not by as much as one might think. Since breaking into the league in 1997 he’s only played 277 games at the position, and he hasn’t played more than 10 in any season since 2004. While he has also logged reps at the minor-league level, Ortiz was specifically selected out of playing first base at an early age. He’s more familiar with a first baseman’s glove, but he was also identified as being a poor defender back in his mid-twenties when he was presumably more athletic.

The video on Ortiz’s glovework is illuminating in its scarcity. Papi played only 60 innings in the field in 2015, but the best highlight is probably this catch off the bat of Ben Revere.

Many human beings who are not professional baseball players are capable of catching objects flying in their direction, but this is what Ortiz specializes in. Almost all video of him playing first base entails him catching a ball thrown to him. That’s OK because by and large that’s what first basemen do.

He did have one error this year, but it was his first since 2010 in spot duty, so it’s fair to describe him as reliable enough. Statistically speaking DRS has him at -7 for his career and UZR has him at -4.4 per 1500 innings. Not that bad, although he did play in the field more when he was younger so his true talent at this point is probably quite a bit lower. Even so, in this matchup he’s the high-floor option.

Rodriguez, on the other hand is a little more interesting. Even though he’s been slowed by age fundamentally he’s a good athlete and he used to be a defensive asset at much more difficult positions. That gives him upside.

The downside is his lack of experience. A-Rod played 9.2 innings of first base during the regular season and nine during spring training and that’s probably it for his entire life. When he was younger putting him at first would have been a ridiculous notion. When he was given the chance there were a few hiccups, such as a dropped ball in a Grapefruit League game against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

He also failed to hold onto a ball from Didi Gregorius recording his first error at the position in his only major-league start there.

In that game he also took his toe off the bag leading to an error for Chase Headley in a call that was challenged and overturned.

These are some nasty rookie mistakes, but there is room for growth as not only does he move and throw the ball well for a first baseman, he’s demonstrated solid scooping form.

Defensive metrics mean almost literally nothing in a 9.2 inning sample but for the heck of it DRS had A-Rod at -1 and UZR had had him at a clean 0 with his range score cancelling out the error he made.

So, what’s the verdict? I hope you’re prepared for a cop out.

If you were playing Game 7 of the World Series tomorrow you’d want Ortiz at first. It’s a position he knows well and he’ll respond to plays instinctively,  catch the ball and probably won’t kill you with some kind of mental mistake. It’s an ugly play, but it’s the safe play.

If you were going to prep one in the offseason to be your first baseman all year Rodriguez is the clear choice. He’s far more athletic and he could cut down on his mistakes with more practice.

Choose Papi for today and take A-Rod for the future. That’s not a statement that comes up a lot when comparing two 40-year-olds.

(Photo: Adam Hunger-USA Today Sports)

With Chasen Shreve dying after 52 innings, Adam Warren being moved back into the rotation due to injuries, and Bryan Mitchell catching a line drive off the face, things came apart rather quickly. That forced Joe Girardi to lean on Dellin Betances, and he faded in the season’s final two months with an icy 2.08 SO/BB.

The easy way to solve this would be to spend some of that money that the Yankees have. Their revenue was $508 million in 2014, according to Forbes, and their payroll is about to shrink with Teixeira and Beltran coming off the books after 2016. However, that’s not going to be easy this offseason.

For the Yankees, there are limited options for a big splash in a shallow free agent pool. I will be having none of the Tony Sipp (sorry, Tony Sipp nation), 35-year-old Ryan Madson is a risk and a half, and Antonio Bastardo is sort of just another Justin Wilson. This leaves bearded Joakim Soria, who has seemed to calm down after a strange mid-career crisis, old friend Tyler Clippard, and the notorious O.D.A.Y. (that’s Darren O’Day).

In terms of game-changing relievers, that’s really it.

Should the Yankees dig a bit deeper, they’ll find names like Mark Lowe, Shawn Kelley, Jason Motte, Ross Detwiler, Trevor Cahill, Jonathan Broxton and Country Joe Blanton. Not exactly a lineup that would live up to the standards of a DJ Khaled record.

So, what should they do?

It seems the Yankees are OK with lefties in the pen; they should have two capable relievers if they get the same season out of Justin Wilson, and they’re able to limit Shreve’s role and keep him fresh (his release speed on his slider and splitter faded as the season went on). With that said, Bastardo could be a fit, if Cashman decides the team absolutely must get lefties out, and Shreve can’t be trusted. His BAA when facing lefties is .138, which could be of use at Yankee Stadium. He’s better at getting lefties out than Wilson (.236) is.

If they decide that they want a righthander, Soria seems like a safe call on a short-term deal; after injuries and a very tumultuous tenure in Detroit, he settled in with the Pirates last year in 26 2/3 innings, with a 3.5 SO/BB which, while not Soria-in-his-prime quality, was certainly a step in the right direction. He’ll be 32 in May, and won’t provide Craig Kimbrel-like services, but could be a nice fit as the No. 3 or No. 4 guy behind Andrew Miller and Betances. Soria will likely be the most cost-effective option, and it doesn’t seem like Darren O’Day is in the cards.

Perhaps the most attractive signing, though, might be Mark Lowe. Like Soria, he had a really strange mid-career crisis; after proving to be a sturdy bullpen option in Seattle in 2009 and 2010, he faded in Texas, and absolutely disintegrated with the Angels. He went back to Seattle last year, regained his form, and naturally was acquired by the Blue Jays, because who wasn’t?

He was paid $390,241 last season. That’s a friendly price! He’ll probably command more, but you could do a lot worse than Lowe as your No. 5 or No. 6 in the bullpen on a cheap deal. Best-case scenario, he posts somewhere remotely close to the 5.08 SO/BB and 198 ERA+ he had last season. Worst-case, he’s David Carpenter, except he cost you a lot less.

This isn’t to say Soria and Lowe are the only two relievers the Yankees should target this offseason, but the feeling is that they’re not going to be inclined to spend up. The two of them could return a solid value, and help keep some already-talented arms fresh. If they want to wait until Teixeira and Beltran peace, but patch up some holes, this might be the way to do it.

(Photo: Adam Hunger-USA Today Sports)

*Brian McCann, $15M vesting option if he totals 1,000 PAs from 2017-18, catches 90 games in 2018 and is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2018 season
*Brendan Ryan, $1M player option
*Alex Rodriguez, $6M bonus at 763 HR and 764 HR
*Brett Gardner, $12.5M Team Option, $2M Buyout
*Jacoby Ellsbury, $21M Team Option, $5M Buyout
*C.C. Sabathia, $25M Vesting Option if he 1) does not end 2016 on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury, 2) does not spend more than 45 days in 2016 on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury or 3) does not make more than six relief appearances in 2016 because of a left shoulder injury. $5M Buyout.
*Masahiro Tanaka, can opt-out in 2017

Starting Pitching

The Yankees rotation comes with some great players and contracts, and some not-so-great contracts. The elephant in the room is C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia’s contract is unlikely to end in 2016, with the vesting option focused on a shoulder injury that hasn’t cropped up yet, so he’ll be a serious drag on the payroll for the next two seasons. Making it worse is the fact that Sabathia may not even make the starting rotation, so he could be worthless to the team while being paid $50M. He could end up costing the Yankees a big time free agent this offseason, such as David Price or Zach Greinke, forcing the team to look at cheaper options on the market.

Although Sabathia’s contract is a mess, the Yankees’ payroll is alleviated some by three team-friendly deals. The cheapest rotation member in 2016 will be Luis Severino, who won’t even be arbitration eligible for another two seasons and then has three years until he hits free agency. While Severino’s arbitration years won’t be cheap if he can repeat his 2015 ERA, the salary will look minuscule in comparison to what a pitcher of Severino’s value would get in free agency.

The next two youngest pitchers in the rotation, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda, are also coming at a reasonable price. The two pitchers won’t be steals, with Eovaldi due for about $5.7M in arbitration, and Pineda expecting $4.6M, but the Yankees could do a whole lot worse than Eovaldi and Pineda. Both pitchers have huge upsides, and a successful and healthy 2016 could make these salaries look very good.

The ace of the Yankees rotation, Masahiro Tanaka, is under a more controversial contract. Analysts such as Ken Rosenthal have been critical of the deal, considering Tanaka’s injury history. It’s not an ideal scenario, but the 27-year old’s contract isn’t egregious. At this point, Tanaka’s injury risk isn’t that far off from other pitchers, and his performance level should approach that of a staff ace. He’ll certainly be paid like a top of the rotation starter, and this contract is a reasonable one. Should Tanaka stay healthy, the team may come to regret the 2017 opt-out clause, though—Tanaka may hit free agency if he thinks he deserves a bigger contract.

Ivan Nova is likely to be overpaid in arbitration, but luckily he won’t be a huge dent to the Yankees’ payroll. Judging by last year’s post-Tommy John performance, Nova is a fifth starter at best, and may even end up as a middle reliever, so $4.4M is a bit steep. Nova is unlikely to have much positive value for the team next year before hitting free agency, so getting the potential $4.4M off the payroll through a trade may not be a bad idea. The Yankees have explored options on the trade market, though it remains to be seen if they have any suitors for Nova.

Relief Pitching

The Yankees are looking good salary-wise in the bullpen. The team has been successful in developing bullpen talents, so they will only be paying three relievers more than the MLB minimum. The highest reliever is Andrew Miller, who will be getting $9M. The latter part of his contract (through 2018) may not be pretty if he has health issues, but the price of relievers is so high right now that $9M a year looks to be very fair.

Dellin Betances is still a year away from arbitration, and won’t hit free agency for another three years after that. Chasen Shreve is two years out from arbitration, and while his late-season collapse in 2015 makes him a question mark in the bullpen, at least he won’t be an expensive question mark.

The two Yankee relievers in arbitration right now (both in their first year) are Adam Warren and Justin Wilson, due for $1.5M and $1.3M, respectively. Warren could be a starter next season, and a cheap one at that, but either way he is an inexpensive asset for New York. The same can be said for Justin Wilson. The two pitchers have another two years of arbitration before hitting free agency. There is quite a bit of minor league talent waiting in the wings that could contribute to the Yankees as soon as next year (Jacob Lindgren, James Pazos, Nick Goody, Branden Pinder, to name a few), and the Yankees bullpen figures to be a cheap and effective one next year and in the future.

Photo: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

There was a four step process that got fans of the Bronx Bombers through the lean months between the end of the World Series and the beginning of the next season. It went something like this.

1) Close your eyes and imagine what the absolute best free agents would look like in pinstripes.

2) Pat yourself on the back for doing such a good job as imagination is often an under-appreciated quality in the adult world.

3) Take a vacation to Cabo or hibernate in a local cave for 5-6 months depending on budgetary restrictions.

4) Return home in April to find that all the players you imagined would sign with the Yankees did.

On the surface this strategy appears to be outlandish to the point of insanity, but its effectiveness was beyond reproach. Unfortunately for Yankees supporters, things have slowly begun to change over the last few years.

An unprecedented amount of talk in recent season has included the word “budget” and fans have been warned that the free agent shopping sprees are a thing of the past, at least for the time being. That being said, that hasn’t stopped the team from sneaking in big money signings like the deals for Masahiro Tanaka or Jacoby Ellsbury.

This offseason the belt appears to be tightening, or at least refusing to loosen- a problematic state of affairs so soon after Thanksgiving. General manager Brian Cashman himself has said the team is limited by current salary obligations.

None of this means the Yankees couldn’t be bluffing to a degree. If a Jason Heyward or Kenta Maeda were to wind up in New York the denizens of the baseball world would not be peeling their jaws off the floor. However, the sheer volume of rumors about the team’s activity on the trade market of late suggests this is the avenue by which Cashman will try to improve his team.

Where there’s smoke there’s fire, even if there isn’t necessarily the specific kind of fire the smoke seemed to indicate there’d be. So, it appears the Yankees are not going to be very Yankee-ish and move financial obligations rather than take them on, or at the very least not build around a bunch of high-priced mercenaries.

This approach undoubtedly affects roster construction, in a way that’s not necessarily negative, and it also affects the fan experience. Yankees fans are used to getting what they want and getting it immediately.

As it happens that’s not a great thing to get accustomed to, or rather the opposite-the ability to delay gratification- is exceedingly important to our success as people. In 1970 the famous Stanford Marshmallow Experiment  children were given the choice to eat one marshmallow immediately, or wait for fifteen minutes without touching the marshmallow in front of them and get two.

Only about a third of the kids were able to wait long enough to maximize their marshmallow haul. That makes sense, marshmallows are delicious and people want them in their gullets ASAP. Even reading about this may have you wondering if you have any of the delicious squishy cubes in the pantry or whether it’s possible to whip up a few from scratch.

However, the children that were able to wait  were rewarded, and more importantly, in follow-up studies they did better in school, possessed higher SAT scores and even had healthier BMI numbers. Delaying gratification is extraordinarily important, and it’s a skill Yankees fans have yet to learn. Instead they have been chowing down on single marshmallows for years.

To clarify, this is not to suggest that people who support the team are uneducated or overweight, but rather in baseball fandom terms their experience has arguably been incomplete of late, even if it has been immensely satisfying.

Right now the Yankees, while contenders, appear to be in a period of some transition. They are not throwing good money after bad while they ride out their financial commitments to some aging players. There are some exciting youngsters on the way, and they will be given a chance to grow.

The present is not being sacrificed, but it’s also not being maximized at the expense of the future. Delayed gratification, scary as it may be to the uninitiated, is in play here. That means there will be some painful moments.

But there will be moments of glory as well.

Both must be experienced to enjoy the most rewarding and complete form of fandom. For the Yankees, both will be present in the near term. Even if this offseason fails to excite the way it might have in the past, things will inevitably get good for this franchise before too long.

The second marshmallow is on the way.

(Photo: Brad Penner-USA Today Sports)

Most recently the Bronx Bombers have been linked to Starlin Castro in a trade that could involve Brett Gardner according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. While it’s hard to know how much fire is burning beneath this smoke, it’s the sort of framework that makes some sense with two well-compensated potentially-redundant veterans switching teams.

There would have to be other players involved to make it work, but if you squint you can see it. However, one aspect of the story is both obvious and illogical, the idea of Castro as a second baseman.

As Feinsand explains, “[Starlin] Castro would fill a need for the Yankees at second base, where they currently have a platoon of Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder.”

It is true that the Yankees have an uncertain situation at second base and a shortstop in Didi Gregorius who led the team in WAR in 2015. So it’s clear where the hole is. That doesn’t mean shoving Castro into it is justified.

Over the course of his career Castro has accumulated 106.6 Runs Above Replacement. For a 25-year-old it’s hard to complain about a number like that. However, 38.6 of those runs have been a function of his positional adjustment for being a shortstop. He has racked up 36.2 percent of his value just for standing between third base and second base a bunch of times.

That characterization undoubtedly undersells the difficulty of being a major league shortstop, but if the Yankees pick him up and play him at second they are cutting into his value significantly. For a frame of reference, Robinson Cano has put up only 20.1 runs of positional value in his career, and a durable second baseman is worth only 1.5-2.5 extra runs a year compared to 5.5-7.5 for a shortstop.

A move to second doesn’t change Castro as a ballplayer in a meaningful way, but it would change the lens through which we have to evaluate his value. He has been useful to the Cubs by being approximately a league-average hitter and a competent shortstop. That combination makes you an asset. Being a league-average hitter and a competent second baseman isn’t nearly as impressive.

In theory, the transition to the keystone could improve his ability to make a defensive impact. Converted shortstops like Ryan Goins have become defensive aces at second in the past. That being said, historically Castro’s biggest problem has been sloppiness and lapses in judgement which seem unlikely to change just from lining up at a different spot.

It’s possible to consider Castro something of an upside play offensively, especially considering his age and how strong he was in 2014, but unless he develops significantly more power, he’s going to be fairly BABIP reliant year-to-year. His talent has often been considered to surpass his production, but it’s naive to assume he’d break from his well-established patterns at the plate simply by donning the pinstripes.

In fact, he projects to be a worse hitter than both Refsnyder and Ackley in 2016 according to Steamer.

Castro has tantalizing gifts and a not-unreasonable contract so it’s easy to see why his name is going to be mentioned a great deal this off-season. He’s likely to have a new home soon, but it’s shouldn’t be with the Yankees and it definitely shouldn’t be at second base.

(Photo: Dennis Wierzbecki-USA Today Sports)