Here’s what we know about Eovaldi’s stuff: He throws the ball very hard. The only starter in baseball whose four seam velocity was harder than Eovaldi’s in 2015 was Noah Syndergaard of the Mets.

Here are the Top 10 starters in four seam velocity last season:

Sometimes it seems like Eovaldi is the flashy writer who always uses big words to convey thoughts and theories that aren’t necessarily complex. Less is more in a lot of cases and a writer will sometimes describe something in 10 words when they easily could have done it in five. Eovaldi is the same way when he pitches. Sure, his hard pitches are great and they appear to be quite impressive when batters are swinging through them, but sometimes those looks can be deceiving because when they’re not swinging through them, they’re hitting the ball all over the place.

I decided to look at every pitch he’s ever thrown in one table, just to see where he likes to pitch the most. As you can see, Eovaldi really likes pitching to the strike zone.

That’s not a bad thing if you have otherworldly stuff, but Eovaldi isn’t quite there yet. Last season batters had a .276 TAv off Eovaldi, and in his one start this season, they have a .310 TAv. Small sample size, yes, but there is something else that I noticed when looking at his career numbers. Eovaldi added a splitter to his repertoire last season, seemingly out of nowhere, and as you can see below, he completely abandoned his changeup.

J.P. Breen wrote back in March about Eovaldi, “For a pitcher who used to be a two-pitch guy and arguably would’ve been better suited in the bullpen, such a change in repertoire is unbelievable.” And it is unbelievable, but what needs to happen for Eovaldi to be successful is for all three of those pitches—the four seamer, the slider and the splitter—to work. If he can get his pitches to work, he may be able to last longer as a starter.

During his first start against the Astros on April 7, it was more of the same for Eovaldi: There were some flashes of greatness, some awful pitches that were hit out of the park, and he only lasted five innings because a couple of bad innings drove up his pitch count. But there was one positive that day. He didn’t walk a batter.

Eovaldi didn’t allow a baserunner during the top of the first inning against Houston, but Carlos Correa’s at bat was a harbinger of things to come. Correa took Eovaldi’s fourth offering, a 90.7 mph slider that got a lot of the plate, to the warning track for a very long, and frightening third out.

Eovaldi teased everyone by starting off strong in the second striking out both Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez. Everyone should have known better because things aren’t usually that easy for Mr. Eovaldi. He immediately ran into trouble when Luis Valbuena hit a two-out double off a 90.3 mph slider. He then ran into even more trouble when Tyler White hit an 87.9 mph splitter for a two-run home run, and Preston Tucker immediately followed hitting his own solo home run off an 89.5 mph slider. All three pitches were in the strike zone.

Eovaldi also had a rough top of the fourth when he gave up a single to Rasmus, a double to Gomez and a two-run single to White. He exited the game after a 1-2-3 fifth inning to 5-4 deficit after having thrown 94 pitches.

So, can Eovaldi be better? That first start is a good representation of Eovaldi’s career to-date. He’s style over substance, continuing the writing analogy, and he hasn’t quite figured out how to put it together. He’s just 26, and he’s been a league-average pitcher for his career, so there is hope for more. But in order for Nathan Eovaldi to be successful in 2016, he needs to learn how to mix his pitches better, and he will need his slider to slide and his somewhat new splitter to split, otherwise, this could be a very long season.

Lead photo Credit: Gregory J. Fisher/ USA TODAY Sports

January 23rd, 2012

Yankees Trade: Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi (-2.0 WAR since)
Mariners Trade: Jose Campos and Michael Pineda (4.5 WAR since)

What a way to start. Enough ink has been spilled on this trade, so I won’t t go overly in-depth on it. This one has been as lopsided as they come, which says a lot given that Michael Pineda has been a relative disappointment thus far. Jesus Montero moved out from behind catcher, and the ‘bat that will play anywhere’ only seems to truly play at Triple-A. There’s still hope for the 26-year old, but the chances of him becoming a major-league regular are slim. Noesi, 29, is the owner of a career 5.30 ERA, and that’s all that needs to be said about him.

Once a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation upside, Jose Campos is just hoping to make the big leagues. It’s not all his fault, as a rash of injuries have crushed his value, but as is the case with Montero it’s tough to predict big league success for him. Luckily, Michael Pineda saves this deal.

Pineda, who recently turned 27, had a rough start with the Yankees. Despite a successful rookie year for the Mariners in 2011, it took him until 2014 to get back to the big leagues due to injuries. With those ailments behind him, Pineda has looked like a No. 3 or No. 4 starter with a ceiling near the top of the rotation. Last year’s 4.37 ERA was a disappointment, but his 3.34 FIP and flashes of elite stuff give the Yankees hope for a big 2016. At the very least, he’s a young and controllable starter with big upside that many teams would love to have—and the Yankees got him for two players that have combined for -2.0 WAR.

February 19th, 2012

Yankees Trade: A.J. Burnett and cash (6.8 WAR since)
Pirates Trade: Exicardo Cayones and Diego Moreno (0 WAR since)

Ah, the start of the Yankees vast trade history with the Pirates. On paper, this one looks pretty ugly, but the context of the deal needs to be understood.

This trade was made to get rid of $13M of Burnett’s remaining $33M left on his contract. The fact that this deal got done alone is impressive, given that nobody wanted the pricey player who had a 4.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in New York.

That said, this trade is one of Cashman’s weaker ones; Cayones and Moreno haven’t really panned out while Burnett flourished in Pittsburgh. That being said, the Yankees didn’t need to have the two prospects turn into contributors to be satisfied with the deal. Neither were ever looked at as legitimate prospects, and for the most part nothing has changed. Moreno’s actually done well in the Yankees’ system considering his past, and last year’s 2.18 ERA at Triple-A in the bullpen last year suggests that the 28-year old Moreno could see some innings in the Yankees ‘pen next year. This isn’t a trade to be proud of, but it’s also not one that the Cashman and the Yankees lost out on.

July 23rd, 2012

Yankees Trade: Danny Farquhar and D.J. Mitchell (0.4 WAR since)
Mariners Trade: Ichiro Suzuki (1.6 WAR since)

It’s not worth spending much time on this one, given the uninspiring results on both sides. Ichiro did about what the Yankees expected, and they were able to squeeze a year and a half of below average starter/great fourth outfielder production out of him. Mitchell hasn’t reached the big leagues since, and Farquhar’s had one very good season and two terrible ones. At this time last year, it may have looked like the Yankees blew it given Farquhar’s 2.66 ERA in 2014. But his 2015 ERA of 5.12 makes the Yankees’ rental of the then 38-year old Ichiro look solid.

July 26th, 2013

Yankees Trade: Corey Black (0 WAR since)
Cubs Trade: Alfonso Soriano (0.2 WAR since)

In the grand scheme of things, this trade wasn’t anything special. But, most Yankees fans will remember it because of four games in August where Alfonso Soriano went on one of the greatest hot streaks ever. He became the first player in baseball history with 12 hits and 18 RBIs in four games and those four games justified giving up Corey Black, who had the looks of a solid pitching prospect. Black is now a reliever and although he can miss bats, it doesn’t seem that he’ll be a player the Yankees will miss. Soriano provided a huge boost for the Yankees down the stretch, and while a dreadful -1.4 WAR in 2014 may have erased some of that initial impact, the move was still a great one for New York.

July 6th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Vidal Nuno (0.8 WAR since)
Diamondbacks Trade: Brandon McCarthy (1.3 WAR since)

In one of Brian Cashman’s most shrewd moves in recent years, the Yankees were able to ship off a player who was pitching in the independent leagues a couple seasons prior to his acquisition for McCarthy, who was arguably the Yankees’ best pitcher down the stretch. Things didn’t work out according to plan in the long run — the Yankees missed the playoffs and McCarthy didn’t re-sign — but, turning Nuno (likely a long reliever) into 90.1 innings of a 2.89 ERA from Brandon McCarthy was a brilliant move by Brian Cashman.

July 22nd, 2014

Yankees Trade: Rafael De Paula and Yangervis Solarte (2.6 WAR since)
Padres Trade: Chase Headley (3.2 WAR since)

This is one of the few trades that I’m not a fan of. A fan favorite, Solarte has surprisingly been productive as a member of the Padres. He was worth 2.2 WAR in 2015, exactly twice as much as Chase Headley was. In addition, Solarte is just 28, under team control through 2020, and dirt cheap until 2017. De Paula was, at one time, a promising pitching prospect. But his 5.01 ERA in 2015 (mostly out of the bullpen) means that the Yankees probably aren’t lamenting over his departure.

Still, this didn’t work out for the Yankees the way many expected. While Headley was very solid for the remainder of 2014 and re-signed with the team, he drastically under-performed last season and it’s hard to imagine a full recovery. On the other end of the spectrum, Solarte surprised many with his performance and a repeat in 2016 isn’t all that unlikely. This trade could still turn in the Yankees’ favor, but it’s probably the weakest of Girardi’s in years.

July 31st, 2014

Yankees Trade: Kelly Johnson (0.1 WAR since)
Red Sox Trade: Stephen Drew (-0.2 WAR since)

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha nope.

July 31st, 2014

Yankees Trade: Peter O’Brien (0.2 WAR since)
Diamondbacks Trade: Martin Prado (5.2 WAR since)

Yankee fans were initially up in arms about this trade, as shiny new toys that can play catcher and hit baseballs far are coveted in New York. Alas, O’Brien’s gone the way of Jesus. Like Montero, he has seen his strikeouts pile up and he’s now left without a position. The 25-year who combined for 71 home runs in 213 games over the past two seasons isn’t much of a prospect anymore due to his lack of position. O’Brien’s big power could still have a place on a big-league roster, but he probably isn’t a starter.

The return for the Yankees, Martin Prado, only spent 37 games with the team. Still, he accrued an impressive 2.1 WAR and hit .316 while in the Bronx. An appendectomy and subsequent trade sent him to Miami, but his return, Nathan Eovaldi, is just as important as Prado’s short 2014 campaign with the Yankees. Once again, it appears that Cashman has won handily, and maybe one day teams will learn not to acquire fringe-catching prospects from the Yankees.

November 12th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Francisco Cervelli (3.1 WAR since)
Pirates Trade: Justin Wilson (1.4 WAR since)

The next installment of the Yankees-Pirates trade saga was one of Cashman’s few poor moves. The trade is understandable, given the Yankees’ lack of space for Cervelli and their organizational depth at catcher. Still, Cervelli had a great year in Pittsburgh, hitting .295 and showing off his elite framing skills. Wilson was very good, with a 3.10 ERA and 9.7 K/9, but a good catcher is much more valuable than a good reliever. It’s only been a year and the Yankees weren’t ripped off, but it wasn’t one of Cashman’s finest works.

December 5th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Shane Greene (-1.8 WAR since)
Diamondbacks Trade: Didi Gregorious (3.3 WAR since)

What an experience this trade was! It’s probably best to cover this in a couple of diary entries from Yankees fans:

>December 5th, 2014: Dear Diary, the Yankees made a trade today. It was pretty fair—the Yankees filled a need at shortstop despite giving up a promising young pitcher. It’s not a steal, but a trade I can deal with. We’ll check back in a few months…

>April 23rd, 2015: DEATH IS NEAR. WE HAVE GIVEN UP ALL HOPE. SHANE GREENE HAS A 0.39 ERA IN THREE STARTS AND IS THE NEXT JUSTIN VERLANDER. DIDI GREGORIOUS IS BATTING .200 AND HAS A 33 wRC+. HE’S A BUTCHER ON THE FIELD AND IN THE BASE PATHS.

>October 1st, 2015: Cashman’s the best! We have the shortstop of the future in Didi Gregorious, who was worth 3.3 WAR last season. Even better, he had a .294 batting average and 109 wRC+ in the second half, so an improvement in 2016 isn’t out of the question. He’s also a great defender! We still miss Shane Greene, but we don’t miss his 6.88 ERA in Detroit. This trade was a downright steal!

This was not exaggerated in any way and all Yankee fans can attest to that.

December 19th, 2014

Yankees Trade: Martin Prado and David Phelps (3.3 WAR since)
Marlins Trade: Garrett Jones, Nathan Eovaldi, and Domingo German (1.2 WAR since)

Based on WAR totals alone, it might seem silly of me to proclaim this as another Cashman success, but upon a careful look it’s a great move for the Yankees. Martin Prado is still a solid infielder and a player that every team would love to have thanks to his flexibility. David Phelps is, well, David Phelps. He had a 4.50 ERA last season in 19 starts and as boring as Phelps is, he’ll find ways to remain on the big league roster.

One reason why the Yankees’ return WAR is so low is due to Garrett Jones’ -0.6 mark in New York. Many thought his swing and power would fit nicely in Yankee stadium, but after just five home runs and a .215 batting average in 57 games, Jones was designated for assignment. He can be effectively scratched off this deal. Domingo German was a very solid pitching, but Tommy John surgery in Spring Training leaves his status up in the air. He could end up starting, but now it looks like German is more likely a reliever. That said, it wouldn’t be shocking to see German out-perform David Phelps if his stuff is back following the surgery.

Finally, we get the big name of this deal: Nathan Eovaldi. ‘Evo’ had an up-and-down 2015 for the Yankees, struggling out of the gate but showing promise in the second half before falling to elbow inflammation in September. At his best, Eovaldi has the upside of an ace. His big time velocity and nasty splitter could make Eovaldi a special player. The Yankees will have to hope that his elbow holds up, but this trade looks like another great one for New York.

January 1st, 2015

Yankees Trade: Manny Banuelos (-0.2 WAR since)
Braves: David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve (1.3 WAR since)

Just like the Didi Gregorious trade, this deal was quite the emotional rollercoaster. It certainly hurt fans to lose the previously beloved Banuelos, who was only a couple years and a Tommy John surgery removed from being a top pitching prospect. Things were looking up for Banuelos to start last season, as he was finally healthy and had a 2.23 ERA in Triple-A. Injuries struck again, though, and his 5.13 ERA in the majors hasn’t been very encouraging.

Back in New York, David Carpenter was never able to find success. After struggling through just 18.2 innings of 4.82 ERA ball, he was designated for assignment. Chasen Shreve saved this trade for the Yankees, with a 3.09 ERA last season in 58.1 innings. Shreve was hugely valuable to the team in the first half of the season, with a 2.02 ERA. He hit a wall in the latter part of the season, though, and had a 4.76 ERA after the All-Star Break. It depends on which pitcher shows up in 2016, but there’s optimism that Shreve can once again be an above-average relief pitcher for the team. Banuelos has some control over how this deal ends up looking, and there’s still hope that the 24-year-old can stay healthy and be a back-of-the-rotation starter. There’s plenty of baseball left to be played for these players, but it’s another solid trade by Cashman at the least.

Overall, it’s clear that Brian Cashman’s track record in trades is overwhelmingly successful. Among the significant moves detailed here, only one of them looks like a ‘bad deal’ and the others seem to be at the very worst ‘fair.’ There’s time for the winners of each trade to switch, but these moves are great evidence of Cashman’s elite trading abilities.

It’s important to be aware of Cashman’s success in this facet of running the Yankees, because it could very well be the only way the team stays afloat over the next couple of years. Given the lack of prosperous free agent classes until after the 2018 season and the Yankees’ newfound refusal to spend money, Cashman could be forced to rely on these deals to build up the roster. Shying away from free agents doesn’t sound fun, but based on Cashman’s past primarily focusing on trades may not be a bad strategy.

Lead photo: Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports

A year ago I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Ben’s assessment. In fact, last September as a second straight non-playoff season wound to its end, I wrote that the Yankees were “destined for a down period, the type every other team goes through every few years, and this time there’s not much they can do about it.”

But the Yankees defied my expectations and reached the playoffs in 2015 thanks to surprising contributions from some players — notably Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran — that I had assumed to be dead money.

Still, three months ago I still assumed a short rebuild period was on the way. The Yankees’ 87 wins in 2015 didn’t seem repeatable with the team’s core aging and its depth chart stuck with some hard-to-fill holes. Brian Cashman’s commitment to youth meant the Yankees’ wouldn’t sacrifice prospects to restock the current team, which meant they would stumble through the next three years making due with what they had.

Then, Cashman went out and traded for Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro and Aroldis Chapman and parted with only a backup catcher, middle reliever and four largely insignificant prospects. Suddenly the 2016 Yankees appear better on paper than last year’s team, and 85 wins looks like the floor for the upcoming season.

After all that’s happened in the last calendar year, from a surprise playoff berth to an impressive off-season, I’ve come to believe the Yankees can in fact have it all. Cashman is walking a tightrope, trying to contend while counting down the years until Teixeira, Rodrguez, Beltran and CC Sabathia come off the books and a crop of superstars becomes available. He’s not only kept from falling during this high-wire act, he seems to have kept himself impeccably balanced.

Despite his pessimistic view of the short-term future, Ben concedes the Yankees will probably compete for a playoff spot in 2016. This will be a team without stars, but thanks to Cashman, one without serious holes, especially if a mid-rotation starting pitcher arrives before Opening Day.

Let’s fast-forward to 2017. Teixeira and Beltran will be off the books, and Greg Bird and Aaron Judge will likely inherit playing time with their departures. The Yankees will likely still have to pay Chase Headley, Brian McCann, A-Rod and Jacoby Ellsbury more money than they’re worth, but a young position-player core will be in place, and by that time the Tanaka-Severino-Pineda-Eovaldi starting rotation will have hit its prime.

There’s little sense in predicting as far into the future as 2018, but it seems reasonable to assume much of the emerging group of 20-somethings will remain assembled, with other additions to prop them up. Cashman has shown in recent years an impressive ability to acquire real big-league value without sacrificing much of consequence. Eovaldi cost David Phelps. Didi Gregorius cost Shane Greene. Starlin Castro cost Adam Warren. No general manager wins every trade, but Cashman seems to be coming close. If there’s any executive in baseball I trust to make the kinds of incremental improvements that boost a team from 80 wins to 85, or from 85 to 90, it’s the guy running the Yankees.

Ben’s forecast for a Yankee decline rests on the idea that though the 2015 core was overpaid, it provided value that will likely dwindle over the next few years. And while this is true, it doesn’t take into account the group whose value will presumably increase between now and 2018. The progression of Gregorius, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Castro, Bird and Judge, plus any additions Cashman makes over the next few off-seasons, should counteract some of the graying and keep the Yankees above water. Like the 2013-15 Yankees, the 2016-18 squads will feature several high-mileage players trending downward. But unlike recent teams, these next few will also include a promising group of youngsters.

The Yankees are rebuilding, but so far they’ve managed to prepare for the future without totally sacrificing the past. It’s a tough act to pull off, but right now it appears to be working.

They likely won’t be great team at any point during the next three years, but the Yankees might very well be better from 2016-18 than they were from 2013-15. At the very least it remains quite possible they remain above .500 and in playoff contention each season until the 2018 cavalry comes to join the prospects and restore the Yankees to glory.

Lead photo: Noah K. Murray/USA Today Sports

However, the New York Yankees have two guys that are suspiciously similar. Their different sizes and appearances seem to indicate that they are different entities, but their statistics leave some room for doubt.

In Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi the Yankees have two hard-throwing, fastball-slider right-handers born just over a year apart who haven’t reached their potential as they approach their mid-to-late twenties. They both similarly under-performed their peripherals last year:

Both were effective judging by fielding-independent metrics, and did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but were still undone by unfavorable BABIP marks. As a result, it would be reasonable to conclude that both were equally good last year and equally strong bounce-back candidates for 2016.

The difference between the two is surprisingly significant because they arrive at similar results through different means. The most important example is strikeouts and walks. Pineda maintains a low FIP with an extraordinary 7.43 K/BB ratio. Eovaldi’s mark, on the other hand, is 2.47. The former Mariner has excellent control and the ability to miss bats consistently. Those are arguably the most important skills a pitcher can possess.

Eovaldi’s low FIP, and the relatively high WAR that results from it, has a different source. What he specialized in was preventing long balls, allowing only 0.58 per nine innings. Not only does is that a fairly luck-reliant statistic, but having such a favorable result while pitching at Yankee Stadium is highly irregular.

In theory, Eovaldi could have found some kind of secret sauce that’s keeping the ball in the yard, but it’s safe to assume that he’ll have a hard time repeating what he accomplished in this domain last year. With a normalized HR/FB his xFIP sits at 3.81 — a tidy number, but hardly an extraordinary one. Meanwhile, Pineda’s xFIP was an excellent 2.95, even better than his above-average FIP.

Superficially, the two hurlers look to offer similar statistical profiles, but all things being equal the smarter money is on Pineda getting over the run-prevention hump next season. Eovaldi does have durability on his side and an intriguing new splitter, but despite his elite velocity he simply doesn’t blow batters away.

Pineda and Eovaldi are less similar than they appear on paper, although probably more alike than they appear in person. Both are interesting talents, but by this time next year we won’t be comparing them so closely. Pineda is likely to either surpass his strikingly similar teammate behind his superior underlying numbers or fall victim to a gruesome injury.

Lead photo: Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports

If the season started tomorrow, the Yankees’ starting rotation would look something like this:

Masahiro Tanaka
Luis Severino
Michael Pineda
Nathan Eovaldi
CC Sabathia

Ivan Nova
Bryan Mitchell

Now that’s not so bad. All seven of those guys have had some degree of success one time or another and could contribute in 2016. As a bonus, six of the seven are younger than 30 years old. But, like last year, the rotation carries a number of question marks. Will Pineda be healthy? Will we see the version of Sabathia that dominated September or the one that struggled through April, May, June and July (and that’s not even touching on the fact that he’ll be pitching for the first time since checking into rehab last October)? Can Nova bounce back from a bad season? Is Mitchell truly an MLB-caliber starter?

Given the uncertainty, it’s likely the Yankees will add to their rotation before Opening Day. And given their apparent commitment to youth and austerity, we can assume they’ll look for a young, cost-controlled option. But young starters certainly don’t grow on trees, and any team that has a 25-year-old, mid-rotation pitcher won’t likely part with him easily.

With Shelby Miller off the board and Jose Fernandez’s price prohibitively high, let’s look at some young pitchers Brian Cashman might think about placing calls on.

Category I: The Deep Rebuilding Team

Though most rebuilding teams want to hold on to their mid-20s players, occasionally a team embarks on a teardown so thorough it will part with even its young major leaguers. Here, we’re looking for pitchers young enough to help the Yankees in the near future but old enough that their current teams are willing to cash in for prospects.

• Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves

The Braves have already traded the 25-year-old Miller and 26-year-old Andrelton Simmons, so they would probably be willing to part with the 24-year-old Teheran for the right price. This would be somewhat of a buy-low move, as the righty is coming off an unimpressive season on the heels of two good ones. Teheran would cost the Yankees at least one of their top prospects (Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Jorge Mateo), but unlike Fernandez wouldn’t require a package built around Severino.

• Taylor Jungmann, Milwaukee Brewers

Jungmann had a nice rookie year in 2015 (3.77 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 119.1 innings), but he’s already 25 years old, and the Brewers aren’t anywhere close to contention. There’s no specific indication that the 2011 first-round pick is available, but he’s the type of low-ceiling guy a rebuilding team might consider moving under the right circumstances.

• Anthony Desclafani/Rasiel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds

This could be a stretch, but the Reds have a ton of young arms, and maybe they’d be willing to part with one of the older, more developed ones. Desclafani and Iglesias are both almost 26 with solid rookie seasons under their belts. Would Cincinnati give up guys who don’t hit arbitration for a few more years? Who knows, but it’s probably worth a call.

Category II: The Low-floor/high-ceiling guys

The Yankees could pursue a young starting pitcher whose previous teams are ready to move on following early-career injury or ineffectiveness.

• Henderson Alvarez, free agent

The Marlins non-tendered Alvarez only a year after he posted a 2.65 ERA and 3.58 FIP over 187 innings, which indicates an enormous lack of confidence in his ability to come back strong from shoulder surgery. Still, the 25-year-old has shown he can pitch at an elite level and will offer high-risk upside to whoever signs him.

• Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are supposedly discussing trades involving the 26-year-old Moore, who has thrown only 73 innings in the past two years. Once upon a time, Moore was one of the top three prospects in baseball along with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, and the Yankees (along with everyone else) will be tempted to try to recapture that potential.

• Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels

Skaggs hasn’t lived up to his top-prospect hype, with a career 4.72 ERA in 181 innings, but his 3.55 FIP in 2015 suggests a breakout could lie ahead. The Angels have more starting pitchers (Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Hector Santiago, Matt Shoemaker, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson) than they know what to do with, so perhaps they’d consider dealing the 24-year-old Skaggs.

Category III: May I interest you in Brett Gardner?

The Yankees’ willingness to trade Gardner opens up the possibility of working with a contending team that simply needs an outfielder (plus some prospects) more than a starting pitcher.

• Taijuan Walker/James Paxton, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have already reportedly turned down a deal centered around Gardner and the 23-year-old Walker but are open to giving up 27-year-old James Paxton. Given Seattle’s need for outfielders, this one makes enough sense for the teams to eventually find some middle ground.

• Danny Salazar/Trevor Bauer/Cody Anderson, Cleveland Indians

The Indians are reportedly listening to offers on all their starting pitchers, and though Carlos Carrasco’s price tag is likely greater than the Yankees are willing to pay, Cashman could make a move for Salazar, 25, Bauer, 24 or Anderson, 25. One of these deals could require forking over some good prospects in addition to Gardner, but the 32-year-old left fielder could be an appealing target for an offense-starved Cleveland team.

• Zack Wheeler, New York Mets

The Mets have an excess of young starting pitching, and the 25-year-old Wheeler, coming off Tommy John surgery, could be the odd man out. The question is, does Sandy Alderson need an outfielder to replace Yoenis Cespedes, or are they content to start the season with a Michael Conforto/Juan Lagares/Curtis Granderson alignment.

Lead photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees, along with pitching coach Larry Rothschild, were supposed to fix Eovaldi: turn him into a ‘pitcher’ from a ‘thrower’ and improve his secondaries to match his fastball. But by mid-June, things had only gotten worse. After that fateful game, though, Eovaldi’s performance drastically changed. From that point on, Eovaldi pitched to the tune of a 3.43 ERA and 2.86 FIP, beginning to emerge as a real weapon on the mound.

The savior of Eovaldi’s season was his splitter, but early on it didn’t seem to help him much. Eovaldi had found success in his new splitter immediately (batters hit just .180 off it through June 16th), but his splitter usage was relatively low, averaging about 10 splitters a game. As a result, his performance didn’t improve, it regressed. A large part of that was Eovaldi’s fastball. His triple-digit heater had a .383 batting average against through the 16th. Eovaldi’s lack of effective secondary pitches (his curveball and slider) allowed the batter to zero in on the fastball. Sure, it was fast, but it was also straight. If a hitter was expecting it, the pitch became a below-average one. What Eovaldi needed was a pitch good enough to make hitters pay attention, distracting them from the fastball. He had that weapon in his splitter, but he still didn’t trust it enough early on. Luckily, Eovaldi started to grow more comfortable throwing the splitter, and began to throw it more effectively as well. Coincidentally, after the disastrous Miami start, it appears that Eovaldi changed his grip on the splitter. As Brian McCann put it, things happened, “right after the Miami game…Before that it was more like a forkball. Now there is amazing action on it.’’

The “amazing action” that McCann referenced manifested itself in his horizontal movement on the pitch. This new grip added a couple more inches of drop. Not only was the pitch harder to hit, but now Eovaldi trusted it more. The splitter began to be used in the place of his fastball in some scenarios, and allowed him to partially shelve the curveball and slider, which simply were not effective. The new mix in pitches is what turned around Eovaldi’s season. 

Previously, hitters went up to the plate looking for Eovaldi’s fastball. He didn’t have any other pitches worth worrying about, so they could sit on his straight fastball. With the addition of the splitter, things were different. Hitters couldn’t just ignore his secondaries and crush the fastball, they had to watch out for the splitter. The two pitches benefited one another. Thanks to the splitter, Eovaldi’s fastball went from being hit like a well below-average pitch to an at least average one. His fastball had a .450 batting average against in April, and a .364 BAA in May. Increased trust in the splitter allowed these high averages to give way to a .271 mark in June, then .326 in July (not great, but certainly an improvement), and an impressive .243 average against in August. The batting average on his fastball isn’t the only thing that changed for Eovaldi. The 25 year old, in nearly all facets of the game, improved—not just from the first half of 2015, but from his entire career.

While it may seem a bit foolish to say that Eovaldi is suddenly a significantly better pitcher based on a couple months of data, it isn’t. Eovaldi is a significantly different pitcher now, and the recent changes have made him a much better one. In terms of statistics, nothing points to his success being unsustainable. Unfortunately, there is one thing that can’t be seen in statistics that represents Eovaldi’s biggest risk.

That, of course, being his elbow. Eovaldi’s breakout season came to an end on September 5th due to right elbow inflammation. Those three words are some of the scariest a pitcher can hear. It doesn’t always mean a torn UCL and Tommy John, but it’s often a precursor. Although tests on Eovaldi came back negative and he would’ve been on the Yankees ALDS roster if they had won the Wild Card Game, it doesn’t mean that Eovaldi is out of the woods completely. We’ll know more about the situation, which is hopefully nothing more than some swelling, come Spring Training.  This injury, though, could be a side effect of his increased use of the splitter.

The splitter is one of the nastiest pitches in baseball, but few pitchers throw it these days. This is due to the reputation that the pitch wrecks elbows. The grip and mechanics, specifically spreading fingers to grip the pitch, puts stress on the elbow. There are plenty of teams in the MLB that have discouraged the use of the splitter because of its unique grip.  A 2011 New York Times article revealed that the Angels, Twins, Giants, Reds, Padres and Rays, among other clubs, shy away from the pitch, and it seems that many pitchers who throw a splitter have had a decrease in fastball velocity.

Although this is the reputation of the splitter, numbers don’t support this notion. An article from Beyond the Box Score found that splitter usage in pitchers did not effect their average time on the DL compared to other pitchers, and Doug Thorburn was unable to find numbers that correlated splitters to an increased injury risk. A common saying about the splitter is that it isn’t throwing the pitch that causes injuries, it’s how you throw the pitch.

If Eovaldi is throwing the pitch with good mechanics, there may be no reason to worry. But considering that he started to throw the pitch under a year ago, poor mechanics could be the culprit. If Larry Rothschild can find an issue with Eovaldi’s mechanics, and fix it, that would be ideal. But, that’s not as easy as it sounds. The Yankees may instead have to limit the amount of splitters Eovaldi throws. A good number may be 20-25 a game, which is what Dan Haren limited himself to over his career. After June 16th, Eovaldi averaged 29 splitters a start, so limiting him wouldn’t be too drastic. Eovaldi threw the pitch just 10 times on average up to June 16th, and there’s a decent chance he could find success with a less extreme number. Then again, if the Yankees want Eovaldi to hit his considerable upside, it may take an even greater use of the splitter in 2016.

There’s no good answer for what the Yankees should do here, so we will have to wait and see what the team does next season. It may be smartest to allow Eovaldi to use the pitch like he did late last season, and let him show off his best stuff. After all, numbers wise, the correlation between the splitter and injuries is not there. If that’s the case and Eovaldi stays healthy, 2016 could be an exciting time for Yankee fans when Eovaldi’s on the mound. With a nasty splitter and fastball that hit 102 twice last season, Eovaldi could be a monster. His numbers after June 16th are just the starting point. Who knows where his numbers could go as he gets more and more acquainted with the splitter. If he stays healthy, Eovaldi could explode in 2016.

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Eovaldi is only 25, but it feels like he’s been around for a while. Even though he’s new to the Yankees, right away he began his old routine of posting solid peripherals but ultimately failing to prevent runs. It’s unfair to expect a change of scenery to completely solve a player’s issues, but it is disheartening to see a fresh start have seemingly no affect.

Eovaldi wasn’t supposed to suddenly be a star with the Yankees, but he was supposed to progress as young pitchers do. There was a promising development on that front when he introduced a new splitter, but for the first half of the season that didn’t seem to move the needle.

It’s certainly moving the needle now.

In July, Eovaldi was the Yankees’ best pitcher. He posted an ERA of 3.09 with a FIP of 2.97 and an impressive 0.9 WAR. His xFIP was 3.70, so he was undoubtedly a bit lucky when it came to keeping the ball in the park, but he was undoubtedly good. While sometimes there is no particular reason why a pitcher has a good month, in this case it’s hard to deny his Eovaldi’s increased reliance on his splitter played a role.

The right-hander has been increasing his splitter usage all year, but July was the first month that it was was his second-most utilized offering.

Not only has Eovaldi thrown the pitch more frequently it’s also gained some velocity in recent starts.

More often than not a good splitter is a devastating strikeout pitch that has opposing hitters flailing at balls in the dirt. Eovaldi’s is a little different. What makes it special is his ability to get ground balls with it.

So far this season 71.95% of batted balls off his splitter have been on the ground. It’s no coincidence that his ground ball rate spiked in July when he began featuring the pitch.

At this point we don’t know how far this can go, but in an AL East with dangerous hitters in generous home-run parks, keeping the ball on the ground is generally a very good idea. It seems unlikely that Eovaldi can become the next Brandon Webb simply by using his hard splitter, but it’s beginning to appear more probable he can break the bonds of mediocrity that had me comparing him to Ricky Nolasco not two months ago.

Right now the Yankees have a hot lineup and a lock-down bullpen, anything that improves their rotation is massively helpful to their chances of not only retaining their division lead but advancing in the playoffs.

One way to address their issues is from inside the organization with the likes of Luis Severino. However, their existing rotation members making strides is equally valuable. Right now with the help of his new splitter it looks like at long last Nathan Eovaldi is doing just that.

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Eovaldi is 25-years-old and his fastball averages 95.9 mph so it’s hard to say he’s a guy who doesn’t have stuff or potential. He’s also consistently under-performed his peripherals with a career 4.20 ERA and 3.73 FIP so it’s reasonable to expect that bad luck has been a factor and he’s better than he’s seemed at times.

However, he’s also already pitching for his third team which has to be considered a bit of a red flag at this point and he’s never shown particularly good secondary stuff. As a result, despite his elite velocity his strikeout numbers have always been unimpressive. A young fireballer like Eovaldi posting a career K/9 of 6.29 is pretty unexpected, especially considering the era he’s pitching in. He has yet to post a league-average number in the category since debuting in 2011.

Stylistically speaking, he looks a lot like Joe Kelly in that he throws hard but the results tend to underwhelm. When we see pitchers in this mold it’s easy to see them as only a single adjustment away from stardom. It’s easy to envision them discovering a new pitch or a new release point or something that will unlock their tantalizing potential.

There’s already been some optimism on this front in 2015 with Eovaldi as he has been featuring a really interesting splitter with a very low spin rate. Unfortunately for the right-hander, interesting isn’t the same as career-changing. The splitter has been fine, but it hasn’t helped him neutralize left-handed bats or get more strikeouts. No matter what adjustments he’s made on his pitches over the years the amount of whiffs he gets on them never seem to change.

The only thing that pops out here is the fact he’s jumped to 100% whiffs on his changeups this season. It’s probably worth noting that he’s thrown all of two changeups in 2015 though. Other than that, the consistency here would be remarkable if demonstrated by a veteran pitcher but seems like stagnation when looking at a guy’s age-21 to age-25 seasons.

It’s far too early to “give up” on a guy like Eovaldi, but we’re closing in on the time to call a spade a spade. And despite the the earlier comparison to Kelly in this case a spade means Ricky Nolasco.

The two pitchers have very different arsenals, but when it comes to results the similarities abound. The chart below compares the two since 2011 when Eovaldi first came up with the Dodgers.

It’s not like there are no differences here, but if you squint really hard you see basically the same guy. Interestingly, these similar results are accomplished in two ways that are diametrically opposed to each other.

Eovaldi has the big fastball and nothing else whereas Nolasco’s fastball has always been mercilessly punished by big-league hitters despite his relatively solid off-speed offerings. Either way, both have led the league in hits allowed with Eovaldi managing it last season and Nolasco earning the dubious honor in 2011.

Nolasco and Eovaldi have found different ways to be more hittable than the average bear in a way that points out some of the cracks in DIPS theory. Managing contact is a very difficult skill to quantify, but without a doubt it exists to some degree. Newer tools, like the measurement of exit velocity, will give us more to go on when examining it in the future even though there isn’t much data to work with yet.

Even if Eovaldi is doomed to Nolasco’s fate of never living up to his peripherals or his potential, there are worse careers to have. The Twins right-handers has already banked over $57 million in career earnings and is only a year and a half into a four-year $49 million deal. He’s doing all right.

When Nathan Eovaldi was selected in the 11th round by the Los Angeles Dodgers way back in 2008 he probably would have been happy signing a deal with the devil to become Bizarro Ricky Nolasco.

He would have been foolish not to.

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It is not shocking that the resurgence of Alex Rodriguez has been the dominant narrative. For better or worse A-Rod is still the biggest name in baseball, a sport that has no shortage of stars but seems to lack star power. Everyone knows who Rodriguez is and he’s doing remarkable things for a player his age, especially one who took a year off.

To what degree that continues remains to be seen, but if you are even vaguely aware of baseball or the Yankees you are sure to hear plenty about it.

The reality is what’s driving this team right now is its pitching. The bullpen has been outstanding, picking up where it left off last season. While the Yankees lost stalwart David Robertson they gained the so-far untouchable Andrew Miller and the whole unit kept humming along.

A little bit less predictable has been the success of the rotation. Despite losing Tanaka after four starts, the unit currently sits second in the Major Leagues in WAR with 3.6 to date.

Michael Pineda is largely responsible for that number with his absolutely outstanding start, but the team has also gotten some great starts from the likes of Chase Whitley and Nathan Eovaldi as well. Whenever a team enjoys success that goes against the preseason prognostication our first instinct is to question the sustainability of said success.

In the Yankees’ case, from a performance point of view there are not very many regression indicators. The  teams’ starting unit’s peripherals have actually outpaced its run prevention. The 3.90 ERA is far from special, but the 3.64 FIP and 3.56 xFIP shows how well this rotation has pitched.

If the Yankees’ rotation has looked good so far, and only figures to look better as its ERA matches up with its fielding-independent numbers, then what the concern? For one, more starts from Whitley as opposed to Tanaka are likely to drag the numbers down to some degree.

More importantly, the group is likely leaning too heavily on their sliders. According to FanGraphs Pitch Value numbers the slider is the best pitch in baseball, but research done by Jeff Zimmerman has shown that increased usage of the pitch leads to greater injury risk. Not only are the Yankees throwing more sliders than any other rotation, they are doing so by a significant margin.

Top 5 Rotations by Slider Usage

The comparison between teams can be slightly unfair as some teams just have more starters that throw sliders than others. However, 66.1 percent of pitchers who have made a start in the big leagues have thrown a slider this season so it’s not as if the Yankees are stockpiling a rare breed of hurler.

Instead, the Yankees are watching their guys throw a scary amount of breaking balls. Injuries are very difficult to predict, but these pitchers are undoubtedly putting their arms in harms way. It is far from shocking that the biggest culprit is Pineda.

Yankees Starters by Slider Usage

Considering that 125 starters have thrown a slider this year it’s interesting that all six Yankees here are in the top half of that group. Pineda and Eovaldi are the two in worrying territory here, as Zimmerman identified 30% breaking ball usage as a worrying benchmark in his study.

The issue for the team is that this may be a problem without a solution. Without giving opponents a heavy dose of his slider, Pineda simply isn’t the same guy. His slider is one of the best in the game bar none.

How do you tell a guy who can do that to reign it in? You probably don’t. Pineda’s injury history is well documented at this point and the team is likely in ride-him-till-he-breaks mode with the big right-hander anyway.

Injuries are never inevitable individually, but they are as a whole. It’s easy to say that Pineda will get injured this year, but there’s always a chance that he goes well over 200 innings and wins the Cy Young. However, in an overall sense the Yankees are likely to experience rotation injuries if they keep up a slider-heavy approach.

The starters are cruising now, but this rotation is playing with fire.

All statistics current as of May 11th

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The most obvious worry for the Yankees is losing a key piece of their rotation when the team has some momentum and a head start over the middling AL East. It would be hard to favor them for the division crown even now, but the division is so wide open that the playoffs seem more attainable now than they were at the beginning of the season.

Tanaka had not been quite the same pitcher this year as he was in 2014 in terms of velocity and pitch usage, but the overall results were about equal. The right-hander had spun two straight gems allowing one run in his last 13 and 1/3 innings with 14 strikeouts and only two walks allowed. That type of production is very difficult, if not impossible to replace and you aren’t going to get it from Chase Whitley.

However, the Yankees are likely to have a little more help than their sixth starter can provide in the form of Lady Luck’s favor. So far the team’s starters have accumulated 2.6 WAR, the third best total in baseball, and yet they have produced a 4.24 ERA, the league’s 18th best mark.

A great deal of this disparity is caused by some of team’s top starters not seeing results that come in line with their peripherals.

Sabathia and Eovaldi have had trouble aligning their run prevention with their fielding-independent numbers in the past but neither is exactly a Ricky Nolasco-like figure.

When trying to find the root of numbers like these the most obvious culprit is bad BABIP, and Yankees’ starters have allowed a .331 BABIP compared to the league average on .290. With numbers like that it is tempting to simply chalk it up to luck as we know for the most part BABIP lies outside the control of pitchers. However, it’s also worth seeing if there is anything in the batted ball data that would help explain the discrepancy.

There really isn’t a lot to chew on here. Perhaps the Yankees rotation could stand to get a few more pop ups, but that seems like nitpicking. It’s apparent that these starters are not giving up a batted ball profile that would justify their bloated BABIP.

At this point it seems fair to say that the Yankees rotation has been unlucky and deserves better. To the vast majority of baseball fans the ideas that any player belonging to the Yankees ever deserves better is foreign and distasteful, but the batted ball gods do not discriminate against a franchise for it’s wealth and success.

Without diving too deeply into a horrendously mixed metaphor that includes both Lady Luck and Batted Ball Gods in some massive and complex baseball pantheon it seems clear that the Yankees should see fewer of their opponents balls in play drop for hits going forward.

Although the team has not shown particularly well defensively so far they should be competent enough in the field to enable this regression to the mean to take place.

It may be impossible to place Masahiro Tanaka with Chase Whitley and expect better results, but Whitley plus a shift in BABIP for the team’s rotation should be a suitable replacement for everyone’s favorite splitter delivery system for now.

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