Top Performers

Scranton: Rob Refsnyder (5-15, 4 R, 2 HR, 2B) Ref’s recent hot streak earned him another cup of coffee in the Bronx and a chance to supplant Ronald Torreyes as utility infielder.

Trenton: Dustin Fowler (9-25, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2B, 3B, SB) Fowler is beginning to recover after a slow start in Double-A.

Tampa: Ian Clarkin (14.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K) His strong performance merited a write-up in Baseball America’s Prospect Report. They mentioned his stuff is undiminished by last season’s elbow the injury, which is an encouraging sign despite his mixed results this year.

Charleston: Thairo Estrada- (9-21, 3 HR, 2 2B, 4 R, 4 RBI) The 5’10 155 lb Estrada has clubbed five home runs in his first 30 games of 2016. He had just four in his previous 135 professional games.  

Notes

• Gary Sanchez, New York’s number three prospect according to BP, received his first career start Friday against Chris Sale and the White Sox. He went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and was subsequently demoted.
• 24-year-old Chad Green also earned his first big league start this week, a rocky outing Monday against the Diamondbacks in place of the injured Luis Severino. He was optioned back to Triple-A following the 12-2 loss.
• Rob Refsnyder’s 16 game hitting streak ended Friday against the Indianapolis Indians.
• RailRiders beat writer Shane Hennigan tweeted that although Mason Williams is “progressing well,” there is no timetable for his return at the moment. Williams underwent season ending shoulder surgery last August and is currently on the 60-day DL.
• On Wednesday, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com reported that there was finally an official timetable for James Kaprielian’s recovery from elbow inflammation. No less a source than Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner estimated it would be 4-6 weeks until he was back in action.
• Starting pitchers Dietrich Enns and Eric Ruth were promoted to Triple-A Scranton. Enns went six scoreless innings in his RailRiders’ debut.
• The Yankees traded for 25-year-old Twins righthander J.R. Graham on Saturday. Rated the 63rd best prospect in baseball before the 2013 season, Graham has struggled with injuries and command issues. This kind of high-upside/low-risk pickup has been Cashman’s bread and butter the past few years. Lots still to like here.

The Quote

“He’s still got 80 speed, but he can’t just get away with it anymore.” – A scout cited by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports discussing the base-stealing prowess of top prospect Jorge Mateo.

After swiping 82 bags in 97 chances (84.5%) to lead all minor leaguers last season, Mateo has been caught eight times in 21 attempts (61.9%) in 2016.

The Highlight

It would be hard to find a less likely candidate for a two homer game in the Yankee system than the diminutive Thairo Estrada. There are more toolsy and physically impressive shortstops in the organization, but the scrappy Estrada continues to hold his own against increasingly advanced competition.

Photo: Noah K. Murray / USATSI

Aaron Judge, RF

Here’s the obvious one. Judge has huge power, coming from his 6-foot-7 frame, and also has surprising contact ability and athleticism. Judge figures to be an impact bat in the heart of the lineup, who also can bring solid right-field defense. Strikeouts will always be a part of Judge’s game thanks to his long arms and huge strike zone, and that’s a big reason why he didn’t reach the majors in 2015. Although Judge was impressive in Double-A last season, he struggled in his first taste of Triple-A. It was a big jump for the 23-year-old, and while a .224/.308/.373 line with just eight home runs in 61 games isn’t what we hoped for, it’s not overly worrisome. Judge is unlikely to make the team out of spring training, partly because he needs more development and partly because there isn’t a clear opening need for him in the outfield yet. Ideally, Judge should get at least half a season more in the minors to develop, but early success in the minors or an injury in the majors could cause Judge to become a factor in the Yankees’ lineup by the All Star Break. 

Gary Sanchez, C

Sanchez has gone the way of Greg Bird this fall, with Sanchez’s Arizona Fall League causing his value to skyrocket. Sanchez showed that he could translate his raw tools into the game, impressing team officials enough for them to trade 24-year-old John Ryan Murphy to the Twins. Now, Sanchez figures to be the Yankees backup catcher in 2016 and could be their starting catcher once Brian McCann has to move off the position. Like Judge, Sanchez could probably use some more minor-league development, as his defense lags behind his offense. But, the Yankees likely prefer Sanchez to Austin Romine as their second catcher. Sanchez won’t get many at-bats, but his impressive bat and arm could open some eyes in his limited chances.

Rob Refsnyder, 2B

Refsnyder spent all of 2015 on the brink of the majors, but ended up with just 47 plate appearances. Refsnyder isn’t very flashy, but brings an above-average hit tool and fringe-average tools everywhere else. He could start at second base for a less-competitive team, but the Yankees don’t seem to be high on Refnsyder. If the team doesn’t make a trade or sign a player like Ben Zobrist, Howie Kendrick, or (gasp) Daniel Murphy, Refsnyder could platoon with Dustin Ackley at second. But, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him on another major-league team come Opening Day.

Jacob Lindgren, RP

After an electrifying professional debut in 2014, Lindgren was expected to contribute in the Yankees bullpen in 2015. A bone spur in his elbow ended that hope after just seven innings of 5.14 ERA ball, but the team is hoping for a return to form for Lindgren in 2016. Should his stuff return after injury, Lindgren’s ridiculously high strikeout numbers could land him a middle-relief role in the bullpen in 2016. Lindgren has the talent to succeed early on and earn a bigger role in the bullpen as the season progresses. If he’s healthy, Lindgren could have a surprisingly big impact in 2016, especially if the Yankees end up trading Andrew Miller. A strong spring training should give Lindgren a major-league spot to start the season.

Brady Lail, SP

Remember Chase Whitley? Brady Lail has a chance to assume a similar role in 2015. Lail had a breakout 2015, with a 2.45 ERA in Double-A putting him on the prospect map. The 22-year-old ran into trouble in a limited stint in Triple-A, posting a 4.62 ERA in 37 innings. Like Aaron Judge, the Triple-A performance wasn’t encouraging, but nothing alarming. Lail could be a long man for the Yankees or a spot starter in the second half of 2016, but doesn’t figure to make a huge impact. Long term, Lail could turn into a decent back end-starter—one who resembles Mike Leake.

Mason Williams/Slade Heathcott, OF

Okay, I got a little lazy, but Heathcott and Williams are similar players. Both are extremely talented, but injury and attitude problems have led to them being disappointments as prospects. Still, both received chances in the majors and flashed some tools before getting injured (again) in 2015. It seems that the two outfielders have matured, and if injuries haven’t eroded their talent, the two players each offer intriguing upside. That said, it is most likely that they turn into fourth or fifth outfielders, and one of them could get that role out of Spring Training next season. 

Jake Cave/Ben Gamel, OF

Now we move on from underachieving but talented players to overachieving but less gifted prospects. Cave and Gamel both feature average-at-best skills across the board, which is useful but not flashy. Neither is likely to hold a starting job in the majors, especially given a surplus of outfielders in the high minors. But Cave has always performed in the minors, and Gamel looked like a different player in Triple-A last season, with a surprisingly good performance. Gamel is currently farther along than Cave and could get a major-league look first, although neither are likely to get more than a handful of at-bats in 2016 due to the team’s already crowded outfield.

(Photo: Brad Penner-USA Today Sports)

It’s easy to forget just how much prospect analysts loved Williams when he was in the low minors. The Yankees signed him as a fourth round pick in the 2010 Draft and gave him the largest bonus of all their draftees that year to lure him away from playing at South Carolina–$1.45 million. Williams hit the ground running in 2011 with short-season Staten Island, where he exploded onto the scene with a .349/.395/.468 triple slash, 28 steals, and a .317 TAv in 68 games. It was enough for then-BP prospect head Kevin Goldstein to dub him “the most exciting player in the system,” which was pretty lofty praise considering a pre-Tommy John Manny Banuelos was still around.

Williams followed his breakout 2011 with a solid 2012 split between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa, where he combined to hit .298/.346/.474, notching 107 hits in 91 games, mostly with the RiverDogs. For a 20-year-old playing his first year of full-season ball, that was quite impressive, and Jason Parks put him second overall in the Yankees’ system, praising his awesome defense and contact abilities. Going into the 2013 season, Baseball Prospectus ranked him 51st in the game, ahead of some notable names, like George Springer, Nolan Arenado, and Michael Wacha.

So after a little more time in Tampa, it would be a smooth road to the majors, right? Well… he did something stupid from the get-go with an April DUI, and he badly slumped on the field with Tampa, batting just .261/.327/.350 with a .245 TAv. His swing mechanics got all out of whack and questions about his makeup emerged. Scouts were concerned about how angry he got whenever he made an out, and how unlike other infamously intense players like Paul O’Neill, he let failures affect his performance on the field for the rest of the game.

As if 2013 wasn’t enough of a nightmare, 2014 was even worse. He completely fell off the prospect radar with a second straight dismal season, this time a step up at the Double-A level. He slipped to a .223/.290/.304 batting line with a jarringly poor .216 TAv. When BP’s Tucker Blair saw him in August, he unleashed one of his harshest reports of the year:

Williams showed nothing in my viewing. His bat was extremely inconsistent and he failed to produce the same swing throughout an entire series. The defense is not going to carry him through the minors. The most concerning part about Williams’ game was the effort. I did not get the impression that he cared, and it often felt like he had already lost or failed before he stepped up to bat.

Rough. Williams was so poor in 2014 that there was some debate whether or not he was even the worth the 40-man spot required to protect him in the Rule 5 Draft. Nonetheless, the Yankees chose to keep him, and Williams entered 2015 with possibly the lowest expectations of his baseball life. Then out nowhere, he began the season red-hot, batting .323/.403/.355 with eight stolen bases in April alone. The cliches are what they are, but for whatever they’re worth, he did do an interview that month with Trenton Thunder beat writer Dan Pfeiffer, during which he noted that he had a “rigorous” off-season of workouts which he believed help him prepare for the season.

Williams eventually reached .317/.407/.375 in Trenton before earning a promotion to Triple-A Scranton that coincided with Heathcott’s jump to the majors. The advance did not slow his pace much; in fact, he has hit for a little more power with the RailRiders. During his first two weeks of Triple-A ball, Williams has hit .288/.344/.407 with already almost as many extra-base hits as he had in 34 games with Trenton. If he keeps this up, it’s going to be very difficult for the Yankees to demote him once Ramon Flores and/or Heathcott must return to Scranton.

Mason’s bat might still not be quite enough to lift him up to the role of big league regular that so many had forecasted of him just a couple years ago. However, he has done considerable work already this year to force himself back onto the prospect radar. The Yankees may extract value out of him yet, and that possibility alone is exciting given where he was just a few months ago. Here’s hoping he keeps up the good work.

(Photo: Kim Klement-USA Today Sports)