Basically, because of bad contracts the Yankees have given out in the past, they are categorically unwilling to give out bad contracts, or contracts at all, in the present. In fact, the Yankees are probably the only team in baseball (except for maybe the Angels) that has so many payroll albatrosses we can argue over who holds the most damaging contract on the roster.

So without further ado, here are the candidates for worst contract on the Yankees.

Contestant 1 – Alex Rodriguez

Years remaining: Two
Dollars remaining: $40 million
WARP in 2015: 2.5
WARP over past three years: 3.2
Age: 40

Just a year ago, our first contestant not only looked like a frontrunner for worst contract on the Yankees, but also worst contract in baseball. But an emphatically solid .250/.356/.486 campaign boosted A-Rod’s deal from disastrous to merely inconvenient. In fact, it’s not far fetched to say that, based on the value of a win on the open market, Rodriguez’s play was actually worth his pay in 2015. Of course, A-Rod has two more years left on his deal, and given his age, it seems unlikely he’ll ever again be worth three wins. This contract may no longer be a catastrophe, but it’s still not one the Yankees are happy to be carrying.

Contestant 2 – Mark Teixeira

Years remaining: One
Dollars remaining: $22.5 million
WARP in 2015: 3.0
WARP over past three years: 3.3
Age: 35

Like A-Rod, our second contestant entered 2015 with a contract that appeared worthless, and like A-Rod, he had a nice year in 2015 and more or less earned his pay. Teixeira has been about as valuable over the past three years as Rodriguez (even though the latter missed all of 2014) but has two things going for him by comparison: He’s five years younger than A-Rod and is under contract for half as long. It’s not too hard to imagine Tex putting together another three-WAR campaign and riding out his Yankee deal as a productive player.

Contestant 3 – CC Sabathia

Years remaining: Two
Dollars remaining: $50 million
WARP in 2015: 0.4
WARP over past three years: 1.0
Age: 35

Things once looked so promising for our third contestant’s contract. Over the first four years on Sabathia’s seven-year $161 million deal, the left-hander averaged 32 starts and 226 innings a year, pitching to a 3.22 ERA (3.28 FIP). But a one-year extension and a dramatic decline in performance have made Sabathia a replacement player and his contract a massive burden. Unlike with our first two contestants, we have no reason to assume Sabathia will contribute any value over the remainder of his time in pinstripes. For all the fuss about A-Rod’s deal, Sabathia is actually a much worse player owed much more money.

Contestant 4 – Jacoby Ellsbury

Years remaining: Five
Dollars remaining: $110,714,285 (including $5 buyout)
WARP in 2015: 0.6
WARP over past three years: 8.4
Age: 32

While our first three contestants are all old guys whose monster contracts are almost done, Ellsbury is something scarier: a player with five years and a boatload of money remaining but rapidly diminishing value. The outfielder’s 2015 was about as bad as it gets, with injuries limiting him to 111 games and a meager .257/.318/.345 slash line mixing with uninspiring defense to produce 0.6 WARP. Five more years of that lack of production is scary to consider. On the other hand, Ellsbury has more upside than the other contestants. If he can return to his 2013-14 levels of output (3.9 WARP/year) for the next couple years this contract won’t look bad at all. It’s the worst-case scenario that makes this one so worrisome.

The winner

So who has the worst, most damaging contract on the Yankees? Well, Teixeira has only one year left, so he’s out, and A-Rod is owed less money than Sabathia and remains a better player. So our contest comes down to two very different players with two very different financial situations. Ellsbury is a slightly built center fielder with five years left on his deal and a high ceiling. Sabathia is a burly starting pitcher with two seasons remaining and little hope of ever again being a good player.

Here’s why Ellsbury’s contract is worse: Even if he bounces back from 2015 with a solid season or two, the end of his deal won’t go well. On a pure WARP-per-year basis Sabathia will likely be worse, but Ellsbury might submit three or four sub-average seasons while clogging the Yankees’ payroll for half a decade. When Teixeira, Rodriguez, Sabathia and others leave to make room for the next crop of expensive big-name stars, Ellsbury will still be around, most likely looking more like a bad investment by the day.

Lead photo: Andy Marlin/USA Today Sports

Bird will miss all of the 2016 season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder, the Yankees announced Monday. According to a news release, the injury is a recurrence of an injury first sustained last May. Bird will undergo surgery Tuesday, with the operation performed by Mets team physician Dr. David Altchek.

Losing Bird is certainly a blow to the Yankees. Playing every day in place of the injured Mark Teixeira, the 23-year-old Bird hit .261/.343/.529 in a 178 plate appearances in 2015, for a .312 TAv that ranked just behind Tex for best on the team (minimum 100 plate appearances). Bird was likely to begin 2016 either in Triple-A or on the bench but offered essential insurance in case of an injury to Teixeira and the equally brittle Alex Rodriguez.

Without Bird, the Yankees’ backup first baseman situation is cloudy, with Dustin Ackley and Brian McCann the only players on the roster outside of Teixeira with semi-substantial experience at that position. Brian Cashman might have to break his free agency silence to find someone to provide help at first.

More importantly, Bird’s injury means a lost year for one of the Yankees’ most promising young players. Bird came up last year as one of New York’s top prospects but far from a can’t-miss superstar, and while his performance in August and September gave Yankee fans hope he could be a key part of the team’s long-term future, 2016 was supposed to be the year he showed whether he’s a potential star or merely a solid contributor.

See you in 2017, #GREGBIRD. The Yankees will miss you.

Lead photo: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports

Yes, the Yankees are going to be in the race next year.  Their off-season hasn’t quite signaled that they’re in ‘win now’ mode, but they do hope their new acquisitions will make significant contributions next year.  Yet despite their intentions to win in 2016, the organization’s future plans remain unclear.  What does the Yankees’ future hold after this season?  No massive roster overhaul has happened yet, but some moves have the undertones of an impending retooling period.

For years, the Yankees have been considered an ‘old team.’  While their roster age technically isn’t old—2015’s team ranked 15^th in the league at 27.1 years of age—their reputation holds some truth.  This is because the majority of the team’s biggest contributors are veterans.  Of the eighteen players with more than one win above replacement, ten of them are over 30, and nine are over 31.  Even more surprisingly, just one hitter under 31—Didi Gregorious—was worth more than a win above replacement.  For contrast, here is the same data for each AL East team.

While the Yankees are perfectly average in terms of total roster age, weighing their age based on performance shows that they’re a very top-heavy team; the majority of their production comes from older players.  When looking past 2016, the issue of graying players really starts to emerge. While some fans may be looking forward to the day Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia and Carlos Beltran are no longer on the team’s payroll, it would be foolish to push aside the value that these players bring. Grizzled veterans have long been the foundation of the Yankees, and once they’re gone, they will be sorely missed.

The sheer amount of value leaving the team in the near future is hard to comprehend, and even harder to replace. The farm system is only so deep, and the next two free agent classes are projected to be very thin.  To start, Mark Teixiera will be off the roster next season.  Sure, it’ll be nice to have $23 million laying around, but Teixeira was the most valuable Yankee last year in terms of WAR, earning a 3.8 mark, despite playing in just under 70% of the team’s games. Carlos Beltran and his $15 million will also be off the books after this season, and while he’s a zero in the outfield, he was the best bat in the lineup in the second half, leading the team with a 169 wRC+. Coming off the payroll after the 2017 year will be CC Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez.  Sabathia won’t be missed, but Rodriguez was the third-best bat on the team with a 129 wRC+, and prior to his late-season collapse he was the best hitter on the club. His 144 wRC+ led the team and was the seventh-highest in the American League.

There are two important things to note here. First is the 8.7 WAR (from last year) that will be absent from the roster. That’s 49% of all of last year’s value, gone.  That said, there’s also the salary relief and the extra spending money that Yankees will gain. In the short term, it will be quite hard to compete; simply building through the 2016 and 2017 free agent classes isn’t a feasible idea. Success from prospects can certainly ease the losses, but the Yankees lack impact players that are close to the majors.  According to Baseball Prospectus’ top-10 Yankees prospects, just three players that are projected to be starters in their prime will be big-league ready by the 2017 season.  In addition, it can sometimes take several years for prospects to adjust and reach their ceiling. The farm system has some serious talent, but much of it won’t be ready when veterans start leaving the team.

Like it or not, there’s a good chance the Yankees will use the 2016 and 2017 seasons to rebuild.  On the bright side, the Yankees will shed over $41 million from their payroll next winter, and after the 2017 season, another $46 million will mercifully be gone.

It seems that the Yankees are setting up for an acquisition period in 2018.  At that point, most of the Yankees’ best prospects—like Luis Severino, Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Judge—will be approaching their prime, while a lot of the expensive veterans will depart.  The Yankees won’t be overly young, but at the same time they won’t be too top heavy.  Although some older players like Jacoby Ellsbury will likely still be around and may be overpaid, the roster will be relatively cost-effective. Analysts are already raving over what 2018’s free agent class could be—Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Dee Gordon, Jose Fernandez, Dallas Keuchel, Matt Harvey, Garrett Richards, Trevor Rosenthal, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Michael Brantley, Adam Jones, and Shelby Miller are all set to hit the market, and David Price, Jason Heyward and Clayton Kershaw would be available should they exercise their optout clauses.

This culmination of events could be the lead-up to the most legendary Yankees off-season of all-time, with a cheap roster, an open wallet, and tons of talent. It’s easy to start gushing about a free agent class that’s three years away, but at the same time, Yankee fans can’t forget about what will occur before then.  Nothing’s happened yet to indicate a retool, but the Yankees did come very close to dealing Andrew Miller for prospects and, despite obvious needs, have refused to sign players long term deals in free agency.  It’s not worth panicking over yet, but Yankee fans should keep in mind that this may be their last season as serious contenders until 2018.

Lead photo: Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports

The star power in that 2009 Yankees group leads to an important question: Could that be the best infield of all time? ESPN’s Buster Olney thinks it’s up there—in 2013, he ranked that Yankees group the second-greatest infield ever, behind only the 1976 Reds. The New York Daily News explored the question back in September 2009, quoting Jim Palmer as saying the Tex-Cano-Jeter-Rodriguez quartet belonged in the conversation for best infield in history.

So I decided to compare the total WARP of the four 2009 Yankees infielders with that of other notable infields. Alas, the Big Red Machine core of Perez, Morgan, Concepcion, and Rose topped the ’09 Yanks in both 1975 and 1976. The Philadelphia Athletics’ “$100,000 infield” had the Bombers beat in 1910, 1912, 1913 and 1914.* So did the Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance Cubs in 1906.* And the 1999 Mets. But the ’09 Yankees did have the best infield since… actually they didn’t even have the best infield in their division that season, bested by the Rays. But they did form the top Yankees infield since… no actually the ’07 team, despite playing Doug Mientkiewicz at first base, edged the ’09 squad thanks to a huge year from A-Rod.

*Using Baseball-Reference WAR because WARP doesn’t go back that far

Now I found myself confronting defeat. It was clear the 2009 Yankees were not quite as special as I had remembered. Here’s a partial list of infields I tabulated before giving up.

So I tried moving the goalposts. Since none of the ’09 Yankee infielders graded out particularly well on defense that year, I looked at offense-only metrics. Suddenly they scoot past the ’75 Reds, a couple of the A’s teams and the defensive-focused ’99 Mets. But even in the offense-only category, it’s hard to argue with stats that the ’09 Yanks are in the conversation for best infield of all-time. They’re still behind by the ’76 Reds, several “$100,000 infield” squads, and even those ’07 Yankees.

But even though value stats don’t quite back up my belief that the Yankees infield in 2009 was the greatest of all-time or even the best-hitting of all time, it might not be wrong to say that year (and the following three as well) the Yankees had the best infielders of any team ever.

Because check out what happens when we add together the total career WARP and bWAR of notable groups of starting infielders:

Looking at career value, that Yankees group trails the Big Red Machine in WARP, whose formula is extremely harsh on Jeter and Teixeira. But three of the four Yanks are still playing, and Cano alone could make up the remaining 11 wins over the rest of his career. Per WARP, the 2009-12 Yankees will have the most prolific infield ever by 2017.

And according to bWAR, the contest is already over. The title-winning Yankees quartet tops the mid-70s Reds (Perez, Morgan, Concepcion, Rose) early-10s A’s (McInnis, Collins, Barry, Baker), late-00s Cubs (Chance, Tinker, Evers, Steinfeldt), late-90s Orioles (Palmeiro, Alomar, Ripken, Sufhoff/Bordick), and turn-of-the-century Indians (Thome, Alomar, Vizquel, Fryman).

I’ve racked my brain for other contenders but can’t come up with any. The ’94-95 Indians would have been up there if Eddie Murray had played first as much as he DHed. The Whitaker/Trammell Tigers teams had solid corner infielders but never incredible ones. The Jackie Robinson Dodgers were missing a third baseman. Some strong duos (Bagwell and Biggio, Ripken and Murray, Greenberg and Gehringer) never fit into strong quartets.

I did find one infield, however, that beats the 2009-12 Yankees in total career value: the 2008 Yankees. That team also had Cano, Jeter and Rodriguez, but manning first base was Jason Giambi, who out-WARPs Teixeira 51.5-38.5. So according to WARP, the most talented infield in baseball history was not the group that led the Yankees to a World Series title while inspiring breathless comparisons to the Big Red Machine, but rather the squad that produced the franchise’s first non-playoff season in more than a decade.

So can we proclaim the 2008 Yankees, in a shocking upset, the best infield of all-time? Nope. Career value doesn’t totally override who the players were at that moment, and in 2008 Giambi was past-prime, Cano had the worst year of his career, and Jeter and Rodriguez were sub-standard as well.

What we can claim, after all the manipulation of stats and changing of definitions, is what I already knew going in: The 2009 Yankees infield was pretty special, whether it was the best of all-time or not.

Lead photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

*Brian McCann, $15M vesting option if he totals 1,000 PAs from 2017-18, catches 90 games in 2018 and is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2018 season
*Brendan Ryan, $1M player option
*Alex Rodriguez, $6M bonus at 763 HR and 764 HR
*Brett Gardner, $12.5M Team Option, $2M Buyout
*Jacoby Ellsbury, $21M Team Option, $5M Buyout
*C.C. Sabathia, $25M Vesting Option if he 1) does not end 2016 on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury, 2) does not spend more than 45 days in 2016 on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury or 3) does not make more than six relief appearances in 2016 because of a left shoulder injury. $5M Buyout.
*Masahiro Tanaka, can opt-out in 2017

Catcher

Although Brian McCann’s contract is far from perfect, it is still a very solid deal. Worth about 3.0 WAR in 2015, McCann will hope to put up similar numbers through 2017, his age 33 season. It’s hard to look so far into the future, but there’s a decent chance that McCann is a DH by 2018. The Yankees expected this when designing the contract, so they included a vesting option for 2019 that is only activated if McCann continues catching over 90 games. Basically, it insures that the team will only pay McCann as a designated hitter for one season, not two.

The Yankees’ future behind the plate looks to be in safe, albeit unspectacular, hands. The Yankees have three potential options on the 40-man roster in John Ryan Murphy, Austin Romine, and Gary Sanchez. None of them are overly exciting, but there’s still a chance that Sanchez turns into an above average regular, and Murphy appears to be one of the better backup catchers in the league. 

1st Base

Mark Teixeira had a big season in 2015, even ranking third in WAR among AL players in the first half. That said, it’s hard to imagine him living up to the over $23 million he’s owed in 2016. On the bright side, 2016 is the last year of his contract. Once Teixeira is off the payroll (he is unlikely to be re-signed), the Yankees will be in great shape financially at first base.

Greg Bird is looking like the Yankees’ first baseman of the future, and he is under team control for a long time. With less than half a season of major league service time, Bird won’t be eligible for free agency until 2021 at the earliest. He should be cheap for a while as well—not even hitting arbitration for another two to three years. Assuming nothing weird happens, first base should be locked down at a low cost long term.

2nd Base

With Stephen Drew off the payroll after a dismal 2015, the Yankees are without a trustworthy option at second base. Rob Refsnyder and Dustin Ackley should both be very cheap, but the Yankees don’t seem to be comfortable starting either at second for a full season. The team doesn’t want another Stephen Drew situation in 2016—the team’s second baseman ranked last in MLB in WAR—so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them sign a player in free agency. Some potential options are Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, and Astrubal Cabrera.

3rd Base

Chase Headley is getting $13 million through 2018, which looked like a perfectly reasonable contract prior to the 2015 season, but now may be a bit too high. A 4.2 WAR season in 2014 gave way to just 1.5 in 2015, mostly due to a sharp decline in his defense. Not only did he commit 15 more errors in 2015 (8 to 23), but Headley’s DRA (defensive runs allowed) plummeted to -6 from 13, and his ultimate zone rating went from 20.9 to -3. Headley’s not going to be an offensive force at the plate, so if his defense doesn’t bounce back, the next three years may be ugly.

The Yankees don’t have a surplus of third baseman in the farm, and their best two prospects, Eric Jagielo and Miguel Andujar, come with flaws. Jagielo may end up moving to first base, and Andujar is years away from the big leagues and a risky player. Third base on the Yankees roster and payroll could quickly become a liability if Headley doesn’t rebound.

Shortstop

Over the past year, the Yankees’ shortstop position has been all over the place, ending 2014 with the retirement of a legend, who was then replaced with Didi Gregorious. Gregorious had an up and down season, starting very slowly, but eventually blossoming into an above average player. Gregorious is currently very cheap for a 3.0+ WAR shortstop, and will be with the team through 2020 at the very least.   

The Yankees also have plenty of shortstop candidates on the farm, with Jorge Mateo and Tyler Wade coming closer to the big leagues. Wade could be up in 2017, and Mateo in late 2017 or 2018. Whether or not Gregorious is still with the team by 2021, the fact remains that the Yankees are in good shape at shortstop.

(Photo: Brad Penner-USA Today Sports)

Switch Positions

Sure, it looks like the Yankees have three players for two spots, but it would be a whole lot easier if they had three players for three spots. They could do this by moving one of A-Rod, Teixeira, or Bird to right field or third base. Let’s start with Teixeira. The five-time Gold Glover winner has played 1659 games at first base, and last played another position in 2004. Moving Teixeira off of first base isn’t an option. Next up is Alex Rodriguez…could he move back to third base?

Okay, let’s shut that idea down. Greg Bird is only 22, relatively athletic, and was a catcher before being drafted. Of the three, it is most feasible to ask him to move to another spot on the field. Then again, he had to stop catching because of a major back injury, and Brian Cashman dismissed the idea of trying Greg Bird at another position. Making matters worse, if Bird moved, where would he go? Chase Headley isn’t moving, and has three years left on a $50 million contract. In left field is Carlos Beltran, who was the Yankees’ best hitter in the second half. He may regress some, but Aaron Judge is getting closer to the MLB. This plan is flawed two-fold. Not only is it unrealistic to expect any of these three to switch positions, but there’s also nowhere for them to move to.

Grade: F

Trade a player

A player moving positions doesn’t make much sense, but a player moving teams may be a bit more pragmatic. Or not…Alex Rodriguez did have a nice 3.0 WAR season that could interest some teams, but he’s 40, signed through 2017 at $21 million a year, and batted .216 in the second half of this season. Teixeira, 35, is getting paid $23 million through next season, so he’s nearly impossible to trade as well. Greg Bird is equally untradeable, but in a different way. The Yankees would be foolish to trade away Bird for anybody, especially considering that Teixeira is a free agent after next season. I guess this plan is more possible than the first one, but it’s still a bad idea.

Grade: D

Sit Mark Teixeira

The Yankees aren’t going to fix the numbers situation through a position change or a trade, so they may have to accept their fate and sit a player. The first possibility is to sit Mark Teixeira. Sure, he is old and was hurt for much of last season, but Teixeira is the best player of the three. Not only does he bring brilliant defense, but Teixeira also had the third most WAR in the AL in the first half of 2015. He likely won’t repeat that offensive performance, but he could come close. Bird may eventually perform on that level, but it’s unrealistic to expect that in his first full MLB season.

Grade: D+

Send Down Greg Bird

There’s not a big difference between sending down Greg Bird and sitting him. Either way, they lose a valuable bat from the starting lineup. That said, there are still some positives and negatives for this approach. On the bright side, there’s less of a chance of Bird’s development being hurt. It certainly won’t help his morale to be back in the minors, but it’s better than robbing him of vital at bats. But, the Yankees will lose out on having a powerful pinch hitter, and a great option off the bench when A-Rod or Teixeira need a breather. If Bird is sent down, the team may need to look outside the organization for a bench bat, one that is unlikely to be as valuable as Bird. While this option would cause outcry from the fanbase, it does make some sense.

Grade: C

Sit Greg Bird

Teixeira is a better option at first base than Bird is, so purely from a numbers standpoint, sitting Bird is reasonable. Bird could be due for some second year regression with the league adjusting to him, and he had a .319 BABIP in 2015, which while not egregious, suggests he was a bit lucky.   But from a developmental and long term perspective, this makes less sense.  Depriving Greg Bird of at bats for possibly a whole year could mess with him.  This move could be short-sighted, and could come back to haunt the Yankees.  On the bright side, Bird would be a valuable power bat off the bench, or for when A-Rod or Teixeira need rest, which is relatively frequently.  Still, he wouldn’t play more than two or three games a week unless there is an injury.  There’s actually some positives to this approach, but the risk of stunting Greg Bird’s development is scary.

Grade: C+

Sit Alex Rodriguez

Greg Bird shouldn’t start over Teixeira, but the difference between he and A-Rod is much closer. The challenge is that first-half Alex and second-half Alex are completely different players.

Based on the beginning of 2015, Rodriguez deserves to start. But when looking at the latter half of the year, Bird is easily the better player.  Rodriguez’s first half wasn’t a fluke. He is, or was at the time, capable of that performance. The second half wasn’t really a fluke either, though. Rodriguez wasn’t necessarily unlucky, he just wasn’t the same player. This was mostly due to fatigue which led to decreased bat speed.  The challenge is that it’s impossible to know which Rodriguez will show up next Spring. The offseason could have rejuvenated Rodriguez, and in that case, he is probably the better hitter. But if the bat speed hasn’t came back, and Rodriguez is just too old to be an offensive weapon, he should end up on the bench. A debate between Rodriguez and Bird is certainly warranted and for now, there’s no clear answer. Either way, it’s unlikely that Bird or Rodriguez is a significantly better hitter than the other. Should the Yankees sit A-Rod, they could be missing out on a player who can hit 30+ home runs.  Theoretically, Rodriguez would be a dangerous pinch hitter, but he has hit just .208 in that role over his career. This plan is flawed, but it could make the most sense. It all depends on how Rodriguez looks in the Spring. 

Grade: B-

Conclusion

When the best option for a situation grades out as B-, there’s certainly no perfect, nor good, answer. That being said, a decision has to be made. “The best player plays” approach should largely be used here, and that means that Teixeira will be starting. It’s unclear whether Rodriguez or Bird is the better option, though. At this point in time, I believe that Bird should be starting over Rodriguez. If Rodriguez shows up to Spring Training with his bat speed back and is hitting well again, though, Rodriguez deserves to start. In that scenario, Bird would be best served as a useful bench bat, who could receive two or three starts a week. Being on the bench and not receiving at bats could hurt Bird’s development, but he would still get enough at bats to stay involved. The Yankees have always complemented Bird’s makeup, and I would expect him to be fine on the bench, though getting consistent at bats in the minors isn’t a bad idea. The Yankees are in an uncomfortable situation here, but a decision will have to be made. While I think that Bird should be the team’s starting DH, it wouldn’t surprise me if Cashman sends Bird back to the minors. That will create a lot of controversy, but it’s a reasonable decision.

(Photo: Brad Penner-USA Today Sports)

That team was the last Yankee team to end a season under .500 and also the last to not have a future Hall of Famer.

A quick history: The Yankees (then the Highlanders) launched in 1903 with two future Hall of Fame players: Willie Keeler and Jack Chesbro. That duo departed following the 1909 season, leaving the Yankees without a future Hall of Famer from 1910-12. Frank Chance passed through in 1913 and 1914, followed by Dazzy Vance in 1915, then Frank Baker from 1916-19, bridging the gap to Babe Ruth and the rest of Murderer’s Row.

The Yankees then had at least one Hall of Famer appear in a game in every season through 1968, when Mickey Mantle retired.

After a brief Hall-of-Famer drought, Catfish Hunter arrived in the Bronx in 1975 to start a new streak, which lasted until 1989, when Dave Winfield missed the entire season with a back injury. After Winfield left a year later, the Yankees played 1991 and 1992 without a future Hall of Famer (if Don Mattingly or Bernie Williams makes it via the Veteran’s Committee one day, never mind). Then Wade Boggs arrived to hold us over to Jeter and Rivera, who are not yet official Hall of Famers but might as well be.

Entering this year, the Yankees’ franchise has been in existence for 112 seasons and had a future Hall of Famer on its roster in 100 of them (1910-12, 1969-75, 1989, 1991-92 being the exceptions).

But what about this year?

The Yankees have been so stacked with stars over the last decade that it seems inconceivable they could have no future Hall of Famers on the current roster, but when you look at the names and the BBWAA’s recent history you realize that, fair or not, there are no locks.

Let’s go through the Yankees’ potential Hall of Famers one by one, from least to most likely to be enshrined, and assess the chances the 2015 squad joins the list of Hall-of-Famer-free Yankees teams.

Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann

These guys are good players who have had nice careers, but all are on the wrong side of 30 and not even halfway to Hall of Fame milestones and value-stat cutoffs. It would take a highly unusual late-career surge for any of these three to have a shot at the Hall.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Highly unlikely

Mark Teixeira

Before this season, Tex looked like a long-shot, most likely destined for the proverbial Hall of Very Good. But after a huge bounce-back 2015 campaign, the 35-year-old should reach 400 home runs by the end of the season (he’s at 394 now) and set his sights on 500 with a few more good years.

Teixeira’s numbers already compare favorably to Hall of Famers Tony Perez and Orlando Cepeda, and with a few more strong seasons and that 500 home run milestone, the first baseman might have a shot.

Then again, as a relatively one-dimensional first-baseman who played his prime in a high-offense era, even 500 home runs might not be enough. And the odds of Teixeira replicating 2015 too far into the future? Not so good.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Unlikely

CC Sabathia

In a just world, Sabathia would be a borderline Hall of Famer, thanks to four top-five Cy Young finishes, a 117 ERA+ over nearly 3,000 innings, a 55 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) that puts him right on the edge of Hall standards.

But instead of a just world, we live in one where should-be shoo-ins Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina receive less than 40 percent of the BBWAA vote and should-be-borderline-candidate Kevin Brown is bounced on his first ballot with less than five percent of the vote.

According to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, which weighs peak and career value, Sabathia is clustered with Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, Johan Santana, and Tim Hudson in Hall worthiness.

Sabathia has as good a Hall argument as any of those candidates, but given the coming influx of borderline starting pitchers and the BBWAA’s hard-lining on Schilling and Mussina, Sabathia won’t make it without reversing his career’s downward spiral and adding to his resume.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Unlikely

Carlos Beltran

Beltran will likely become a cause celebre for the sabermetric community. His career WAR is almost 70, per Baseball-Reference, territory that typically earns you automatic induction. Per JAWS, Beltran is the eighth best center fielder of all-time, without even taking into account his exceptional postseason performance.

That said, Beltran could suffer from having been good at many things and historically great at none. He’s 17 home runs away from 400 for his career, he’s hit only .280 lifetime, he’s finished top-five in MVP voting only once.

With a .280/.355/.491 slash line, 121 OPS+, 383 homers, 311 stolen bases and a good defensive record at a premium position, Beltran should be shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. Instead it seems more likely he’ll hang around the ballot and need a groundswell to gain induction.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Somewhat likely

Alex Rodriguez

Call me crazy, but I’m fairly confident A-Rod gets into Cooperstown one day, along with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and all the rest of the alleged steroid cheats.

The BBWAA won’t do it, clearly, but one day when memories of the early-2000s PED outrage have faded, someone will look back on the gaudy numbers sitting outside of the Hall and decide to do something.

It may take 30 years for this prediction to bear out, but A-Rod will eventually have a plaque, and the 2015 Yankees will, retrospectively, have had a Hall of Famer.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Likely

Lead photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

In comparison, the 2014 Yankees hit just 147 home runs. New York has also boasted a .180 ISO, which compares favorably to the .135 mark of their 2014 club. Over a year, the team’s slugging percentage has risen from .380 to .440.

After scoring 90 runs in the past 10 games, the Yankees maintain a firm grasp on the number two spot in the runs department, and the top spot in the AL East. So what has been the difference on offense?

Let’s take a look at the changed names on the offense. The two names who didn’t appear in 2014’s lineup are Didi Gregorius and Alex Rodriguez. In the power department, Gregorious shows a slight improvement over Derek Jeter, with one more homer up to this point in the season.

Alex Rodriguez, on the other hand, has proven his worth with the Yankees in a big way, knocking 24 homers and 62 RBI while slashing .281/.388/.539 in 98 games.

Without a doubt, A-Rod has helped to lift the Yankees to an elite offense, but by no means has he brought the team’s ISO by .55 and SLG by .60.

So what has?

The answer lies within the returning players. Two in particular being Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann. The duo has posted 47 homers in 2015, eclipsing their mark of 45 last year. Teixeira’s ISO has increased from .182 in 2014 to .314 this year, while McCann’s has risen from .164 to .222. Teixeira’s slugging has improved from .398 to .582, with McCann upgrading from .406 to .477.

However, the Yankees have turned it up a notch, knocking 24 homers in the last 14 days. To put that in perspective, the Marlins, Athletics, and Brewers combined have hit just 15 home runs in the last two weeks.

The Yankees offense has been dominant these past couple weeks. In the last fourteen days, they lead all of baseball in home runs, runs, RBI, ISO, OBP, slugging, weighted runs created, weighted on-base, and WAR.

Clearly, this is an elite offense. If the bats can continue producing as the game’s top offense, they might just be the favorites in October.

(Photo: Andy Marlin-USA Today Sports)

No matter what you call the first half of Mark Teixeira’s 2015, though, one thing is undeniably true: Teixeira is on pace for his best or second best season as a New York Yankee, his recent two-week slump notwithstanding.

In fact, if this piece had been written on June 25, Teixeira’s resurgence would be even more pronounced. On that morning, he was hitting .259/.369/.557 with 18 home runs and a 15.7 percent walk rate. He was producing these outstanding numbers despite a .234 BABIP.

What followed was an 11-game stretch from June 25-July 7, when Teixeira went just 5-for-40, posting a .575 OPS and .120 BABIP. Entering the game on July 8, he had seen his OPS drop by more than 50 points in two weeks.

Still, through last Wednesday night, his team’s first 84 games, Teixeira has produced numbers comparable to 2009, his monstrous first season with the Yankees. As of this writing, he is posting the best TAv (.318) and OPS+ (146) of his Yankees career, with the second best OPS (.902), and he is on pace for his most home runs in a season since he hit 43 for the Texas Rangers in 2005.

While Teixeira’s first-half is undoubtedly impressive, and worthy of the countless “Teixeiras’s back!” columns that have been or will be written, this piece is focused on a significant reason for his improved production: he is again dominating four-seam fastballs. Teixeira’s 2015 return to offensive levels from a half-decade ago is due largely to his performance against four-seam fastballs, the pitch he has seen the most in every season of his career:

As you can see, after Teixeira’s first season with the Yankees, his production against four-seam fastballs decreased across the board — he walked less, struckout with greater frequency, hit fewer home runs, and saw his BABIP plummet. From 2010-2014, Teixeira saw four-seam fastballs 34.1% of all pitches, hitting .231/.351/.451, with a shockingly low .221 BABIP.

That has changed in 2015. More specifically, Teixeira has seen a sizeable improvement in his production against four-seamers from right-handed pitchers:

Since joining the Yankees, Teixeira has seen four-seamers from right-handed pitchers a quarter of all pitches and about 70 percent of all four-seam fastballs.

As we discussed at the top of the piece, Teixeira struggled mightily in the two weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Not surprisingly, it has coincided with a sharp decrease in his production against four-seamers:

During his eleven game slump, Teixeira had swung at more four-seam fastballs, while putting fewer balls in play, and whiffing at a significantly higher frequency:

On July 8, though, Teixeira showed definite signs of coming out of the slump, with both of his home runs coming on four-seam fastballs from Athletics reliever Evan Scribner. In 2015, Scribner had thrown his four-seamer 47.5% of all pitches, with opposing batters hitting just .206/.242/.444 against the pitch. Despite his 31.8 percent strikeout rate with the fastball, he had surrendered five home runs on the season. Even so, what Teixeira did in consecutive at-bats in the middle-innings was damn impressive.

In the fourth inning, Teixeira took a 93.5 MPH four-seam fastball up and away on 1-and-2, and launched it into the right field bleachers:

In the sixth-inning, Teixeira took another four-seamer up and away, this time a 92.8 MPH fastball on 2-2, and again deposited it into the right-field stands:

On both home runs, Teixeira showed enough strength and bat speed to pull 93 MPH fastballs for home runs. For one night at least, he righted the ship against four-seam fastballs.

This is a brief, tangentially related aside. In 2015, when batting from the right-side, Teixeira has hit three home runs to the opposite field:

Amazingly, that is already more than he hit from 2010-2014:

During that five season stretch, Teixeira hit 81 home runs against right-handed pitchers, with only one going to the opposite field. He has surpassed that total in 84 games this season. Of course, this encompasses all pitches and not just four-seam fastballs.  However, a 35 year old slugger who can still hit for power to the opposite field, especially one who sees fastballs 61% of all pitches, must be doing something right.

Teixeira has been outstanding in the first half of 2015, with a deserved All-Star selection (just his third, surprisingly) to show for his efforts. His power against four-seam fastballs, especially from right-handed pitchers, is a major reason why he was in Cincinnati next week. Through the season’s first three plus months, it has been like 2009 all over again, just with noticeably less Lady Gaga on the radio. And for that reason, we, by whom I mean you, me, and Teixeira, are all winners.

(Photo: Anthony Gruppuso-USA Today Sports)

Key Moment: Sabathia got into some trouble in the top of the fifth inning. After allowing back-to-back singles to leadoff the inning, the Mariners had catcher Mike Zunino sacrifice bunt. Then Austin Jackson singled to plate the Mariners only run, giving Seattle a 1-0 lead and runners still at the corners with only one out. With the heart of the Mariners lineup due up, it was time for Sabathia to dig deep and he did exactly that striking out Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano to strand the runners. The Mariners would go on to tally just two hits over the rest of the game.

Up Next: The Yankees have a home off day Monday before the Baltimore Orioles come to town Tuesday. It’ll be Wei-Yin Chen (4-5, 2.78 ERA) against Nathan Eovaldi (9-2, 4.50 ERA) as the probable starters in the Bronx for game one of the series.

(Photo: ANthony Gruppuso-USA Today Sports)