Mike Petriello broke down the trouble that Severino has had in recent starts, particularly discussing how his slider has evolved throughout the season. Most notably, Severino’s experienced negative trends with his slider’s movement and spin rate, which has made the offering less effective. Petriello also surmises that this may be why his fastball has been getting hit harder too since it’s easier to adjust to without having to worry as much about the breaking ball.

After reading Petriello’s article, I was curious to see how what Severino’s done lately compares to last season. I don’t recall Severino having much of a rough patch in 2017, if at all, and his monthly splits bear that out. In terms of ERA, his worst months were June (3.55) and August (3.82), which certainly aren’t bad. No other month had an ERA higher than three. That made me want to see if Severino avoided loss of movement and spin on his slider last season which allowed him to be strong all year. To my surprise, that wasn’t always the case.

Starting with the drop of Severino’s slider, it’s evident that he experienced a very similar trend last year. To start both 2017 and 2018, his slider was falling off the table at its best. As each season went on, the pitch flattened.

Similar to his vertical movement, Severino has experienced less horizontal movement on his slider as the calendar has turned this year. However, this didn’t happen to him last season. Yet, he still is getting much more side-to-side break on the pitch than last season.

Looking at spin rate, and it’s clear that it’s fallen since earlier this campaign. Despite the decrease, the slider is still spinning much more than in 2017, though Petriello notes in his piece that spin rate isn’t quite as important to sliders as it is to other pitch types.

With all of these issues for Severino in recent starts, one would expect more hard contact against the slider. Petriello noted the better results a, and below is a chart showing the monthly xwOBA in this year and last. Unsurprisingly, there’s a big jump from June to July in 2018. Last season, despite losing quite a bit of vertical movement on the pitch, batters didn’t fare any better against the offering toward the end of the year.

With all of this in mind, it’s not easy to explain why Severino’s slider has done worse. Yes, there are bad trends specific to 2018, but Severino still has better spin rate and horizontal movement readings than 2017, and his trend in vertical movement is much like last year. I’ll posit that it has something to do with that old real estate adage: location, location, location.

In 2017, Severino couldn’t have spotted his slider better:

In his first eighteen starts of the year, his location of the pitch was still good, though slightly elevated:

After that, Severino started leaving his slider in the heart of the zone or way out of the strike zone much more often.

Movement and spin rate aside, it seems reasonable to argue that Severino’s trouble with the slider has come down to where it’s crossing the plate. Mix poor location along with less movement and spin (as compared to earlier in 2018), and you have a very hittable pitch.

Why is Severino having a difficult time commanding his slider? That’s a tough question to answer. I think it’s worth noting that his release point is a tad lower on the slider as compared to 2017:

His fastball and changeup release hasn’t varied in the way that his slider has, not that this difference is anything more than subtle. But, perhaps this slightly lower release is making Severino groove more sliders. Further, maybe it’s making it easier for hitters to differentiate the pitch from his fastball.

Though it’s been denied, it’s quite possible that Severino is tired, which could be making it a little more difficult for him to get on top of his slider. Fastball velocity is a decent barometer of fatigue, and Severino’s certainly appears to indicate tiredness. Since June, he’s lost a mile per hour on his fastball, whereas last season, he got stronger as the season advanced.

The onus is on Severino and the coaching staff to get on track before the postseason begins. Hopefully, a mechanical correction or some additional rest are potential solutions, but time is ticking with the postseason rapidly approaching. As long as it’s not an injury, Severino should be able to right the ship before the Wild Card game, where the Yankees will likely end up. Sooner rather than later would be a lot more comforting, though.

Photo credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Most teams like to play it safe in a big game. Taking a risk like trying a bullpen game in a win or go home situation seems outrageous. Yet, it may behoove the Yankees to try it, and that doesn’t mean it has to be a game pitched with only relievers. The way I envision it, there are two options:

1. Start Luis Severino, but pull him after two innings or thirty pitches, whichever comes first. This would act as his “throw day” between his usual full-bore starts and allow him to pitch game one of the division series, assuming the Yankees triumph. After Sevy, some combination of Chad Green, Zach Britton, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman should be able to handle the final seven frames.
2. Bullpen game. Basically, you’d subtract Luis Severino from option one and open the game with Green. From there, you go to the same bullpen guys while also being able to sprinkle in Tommy Kahnle or Jonathan Holder as necessary. It’s risky to not use the ace of the rotation, but it ensures that he’s fresh for the next round.

Last year, the Yankees won the wild card game essentially using option one, though that was not the intention. Severino struggled and forced Joe Girardi’s hand. However, Severino did not wind up pitching again until game four of the first round against Cleveland. In all likelihood, the reason the Yankees didn’t utilize that as a throw day was because it wasn’t the plan all along. That game was part of Severino’s usual routine, and putting him back out there on just one day of rest in game one would have been dangerous. I’m sure his performance didn’t help, either.

Scheduled as a throw day, bringing Severino back for the start of the division series doesn’t seem quite as outlandish. Would it be unusual? Absolutely. It’s not like a starter hasn’t been used on his throw day in the postseason before, though. Obviously, it’s important to protect the 24-year-old’s arm for the long-term, but the strings should be loosened with a championship in reach.

If the front office and coaching staff think it’s too much to ask of Severino, then option number two should be in play. It’s not all that much different, though a lesser reliever like Kahnle or Holder may be necessary for a handful of outs. Not using Severino, the team’s ace, for the most important game of the year opens up the club to plenty of criticism, but it’s not like the relief corps are incapable of dominance.

It’s difficult to imagine the Yankees not using Severino whatsoever in a do-or-die game. That makes the first choice a little more plausible in my mind, plus it lessens the burden on the bullpen. That said, who knows how effective Severino would be on a limited pitch count or throw day. Typical throw days certainly don’t match the intensity of a live game, so it’s fair to wonder if Severino might not be as good. Then again, letting Severino air it out for two innings could result in a dominant performance.

If the Yankees went with one of my two proposals and things went awry, the team would take a lot of heat, and that’s precisely why we’ll probably see Severino make a traditional start in the wild card game. I get it, but I think that game is an opportunity for a team to go a little off the beaten path considering any individual baseball game is already a crapshoot. Either of the scenarios I’ve noted theoretically better position the Yankees in a best-of-five because Severino would start games one and five. Of course, winning the wild card must come first. To do that, I’d be open to something unconventional if it gave the Yankees better odds in the next round.

Photo Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Before Sonny Gray became the broken link in an otherwise sturdy chain.

With the renowned fall-off of nearly all pitchers when facing a lineup for the third time in one night, even the casual fan can criticise a Manager’s decision to leave a starter in past the fifth inning with objective evidence. With the strikeout prowess of the Yankees’ bullpen, peripherals suggesting a bit of bad luck early, and the slow starts of Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle (DL), even stronger evidence supporting bullpen reliance will emerge as the Yankees trek towards October.

Severino and Tanaka would headline a Yankees’ playoff rotation. After that, things get interesting. CC Sabathia has more than earned consideration for a spot, but expectations have to be tempered. That brings consideration to Sonny Gray and whether his early struggles are a genuine reason for concern to any Yankees fan already thinking of how many layers are necessary to combat New York’s October chill.

2018 Sonny Gray isn’t a fresh topic. Relevant entries into the saga already exist.

At the beginning of the season, BP Bronx’s very own Derek Albin noticed a change in Gray’s pitch usage, one that aligns itself with the philosophy of so many other pitchers across the league: less fastball, more breaking ball.

Not only more breaking balls but different breaking balls. Gray’s curveball-slider usage this year resembles his early days with Oakland in 2013 when he used his curveball a quarter of the time. The former Vanderbilt product’s tendency to shy away from two-seam fastball usage is most notable versus left-handed hitters, cut in half to 15 percent, coupled with a doubling of his curveball usage to 26 percent. His affinity for hard stuff versus right-handed hitters has remained stable from last year, but this slider-to-curveball flip is also apparent.

The issue? Gray himself might have trouble confirming any of these specific usage alterations. An essential read to understand Gray’s uniqueness was written last year by the venerable Eno Sarris. It cited how unique Gray’s offerings were, highlighting the blur that exists when distinguishing between his curveball and slider. Comparing the visuals of Gray’s breaking pitches to a two-breaking ball arm like Corey Kluber, who has a slider with a more horizontal break to eliminate the majority of classification errors. Below is a quick gif of Gray’s slider and curveball to help visualize what I’m attempting to break down in words.

If we believe what Baseball Prospectus is classifying as Gray’s curveball and slider, we can see why this discrepancy occurs. The vertical break on Gray’s curveball is fantastic, sitting inside the 90th percentile of the league, a feat likely driven by the excellent spin rate earned year to year.

I imagine the philosophy behind Gray’s tinkering comes from the realization of how superb his curveball’s vertical break is and the want to emulate a plus characteristic of his curve by tinkering just enough horizontally to generate slider classification. This is supported by the vertical break on Gray’s “slider” sitting in the 98th percentile of the league for each of the last two years – to the naked eye, it’s easy to mistake it for a hard curveball.

This is part of the thrill with Sonny Gray: accepting his ability to render pitch recognition software periodically useless. But I also suspect his reliance on feel – not having a true distinction between pitches on occasion – creates stretches of struggle, like the rut we’re in right now.

So how does one remain optimistic in the face of poor results? This comes from one of the underlying results within Gray’s overall change: his curveball has been fantastic. Even with the classification errors we’ve already discussed, we can still parse out the effectiveness of this pitch with some reservation given his tendency to tinker.

Gray’s curveball location has been properly at the knees, the pitch’s whiff rate remains above league average, and the two-plane bend he generates is another plus aspect of his unique mix. The Yankees’ intentions of wanting to develop Gray towards more comfort with his breaking ball could have been to capitalize on this pitch’s effectiveness. Unfortunately, in a utopian world, everything else would have remained intact. Including the effectiveness of both his four-seamer and sinker, to his ability to manipulate his fastball grip and generate cut (which is the “cutter” that occurs when you see a fifth pitch disclosed on various outlets).

Rothschild & Co. shouldn’t alter their course six starts into the season, especially with his curveball this strong. Tinkering with Gray’s complementary components, maintaining a focus on this curveball is what I’d love to see the prolonged results of.

His curveball’s effectiveness to left-handed hitters should be enough to prolong success versus that handedness, but versus right-handed hitters, moving away from his slider has caused a key pitch from his 2017 repertoire to fade. This is where tinkering is needed most. Without the ability to regain bite on either his four-seamer or sinker, even if Gray aligns himself with the Yankees’ push for offspeed, nothing effective preempts his heavy dose of breaking balls.

Perhaps Gray’s tinkering has taken the “feel” away from his fastballs. Perhaps Gray needs to tinker more with his fastball, leaning on his cutting alteration more. Perhaps the answer is something previously undiscovered; something a “feel” pitcher needs time to adjust towards or away from.

Whether Gray figures this out, with enough time to make the general public walk back their criticism of a potentially necessary arm for October, remains to be seen. If the Yankees trade for another starter, as the New York Daily News, suggested back in January, grave concern for Gray as a starter might be unnecessary.

The future is bright, even with how cloudy it currently seems.

Bronx’s budding star sits ahead of  titans on the velocity front, eclipsing names like Stephen Strasburg, Chris Sale, and Jacob deGrom. Severino’s average fastball velocity of 97.7 mph this season is one half mile per hour ahead of Gerrit Cole and more than a full mile per hour ahead of James Paxton. If the city of New York was looking into alternative sources of energy to power the city, they might want to tap into this 23-year-old’s electric heater.

Fellow BP Bronx writer Austin Yamada astutely pointed out the widening of Severino’s ‘velocity gap’ between his fastball and his primary offspeed pitch, the devastating slider we’ve come to love (Yamada also made a great comparison to Rays’ ace Chris Archer, which I cannot steal from him, but sure as heck want to). I’m here to also point out the other velocity gap that widened since last season and has led Severino to the promised land of left handed hitter domination.

An issue with simply looking at percentage pitch usage is that we often glaze over changes in how a pitcher is throwing a certain type of hitter. We may look at the aggregate usage of a certain pitch versus all hitters and see a decrease, but remain blind to an increase when splitting up the usage by a simple factor like left handed versus right handed bats.

This theory of mine applies conveniently to Severino. On the left below we have Severino’s change in changeup usage to all batters between 2016 to 2017. Our graph on the right shows his changeup usage just to left handed bats between 2016 to 2017.

Sure it’s a small fraction of an increase, but that uptick is important, especially if you look at how virtually unhittable the pitch has been to left handed bats…

Lefties possessed a .263/.331/.416 off Severino in his 71 innings of work, which has bottomed out to a dismal .178/.213/.352 so far in 2017. Trusting his changeup more to lefties has allowed him to escape the tag of a pitcher with heavy lefty/righty splits, forcing managers to rethink throwing a lefty heavy lineup at the Yankees’ young star and praying for a few misplaced offspeed pitches.

Severino has tinkered with his approach to both sides of the plate, and it’s working. More changeups and fastballs to lefties, more sliders and virtually no changeups to righties.

Back in Januray of last year, the great Jeff Long called back to a Baseball Prospectus column by Harry Pavildis that broke down what makes a good changeup. You can read the article here, but I’m going to cherry pick the high level points Long summarizes in his column. There are four factors in a pitcher’s repertoire that help to make a changeup effective.

1. Faster fastballs result in more whiffs on the pitcher’s changeup.
   1. Severino’s velocity is up (96.7mph to 97.7mph from 2016), but he isn’t seeing a noticeable increase in either his swinging strike rate or strikeouts as a whole with his changeup (whiff % is down, 7.3% to 3.6% from 2016 to 2017).
2. “Velocity gap,” or the difference between a pitcher’s fastball and changeup velocity also results in more whiffs.
   1. This gap for Severino has increased a noticeable amount, just like his fastball-slider velocity gap. In 2016 this difference was about 7mph. This season it’s up nearly 3mph, to just under 10mph of difference between his fastball and changeup.
   2. Oddly enough, even though Severino is 2-for-2 on these changeup traits, we’re still sitting on a decrease in whiffs with the pitch.
3. Pitchers with higher changeup whiff rates, throw their changeups more.
   1. We have to disqualify Severino on this one because as I’ve already pointed out twice, Severino’s changeup whiff rate has actually decreased. We’ll get to the bottom of this, I promise you.
4. The vertical drop of changeups relative to fastballs increases both the whiff and groundball rate.
   1. This is a factor we haven’t touched on with our young stud, but a good one to consider. Severino’s changeup vertical movement increased from 5.6″ in 2016 to 6.9″ this season (more “sink”). With his fastball vertical movement steady from 2016 to 2017, the extra sink on his changeup relative to his fastball can add more whiffs and grounders to the pitch’s results.
   2. Ah! There is what we have been searching for. More grounders! Severino’s changeup has in fact seen a nice increase in grounders per ball put in play. Last season it was at 46.2% while this season it has edged up nicely to 54.6%.

One more thing to consider in order to further understand why we’re still not seeing more whiffs with the changeup is to realize the velocity at which Severino is throwing his changeup.

In the article I linked to above from Jeff Long, he mentions the wonky relationship between whiffs and grounders with changeups, noting that changeups with higher velocities actually result in more groundballs realtive to whiffs. Our big takeaway here is that even with the nice drop in velocity on Severino’s changeup, widening the velocity gap between the pitch and his fastball, the pitch itself is still a high velocity offering compared to the rest of the league. At 87.9mph, he has the 15th hardest changeup in the league among starters who have thrown the pitch 50+ times.

Nestled right in the 83rd percentile for changeup velocity, the overlooked pitch of Severino’s arsenal deserves some respect as it has kept him honest against left handed bats. With the concept in hand that higher velocity changeups lead to more groundballs, I’m not concerned one bit that Severino isn’t getting enough swinging strikes to maintain his success against left handed bats. Combine this with the increased velocity gaps between both his fastball-slider (previously discussed by Austin Yamada), and his fastball-changeup discussed here, and it’s no surprise we’re looking at a pitcher with a pristine 1.64 DRA.

Top Performers

Scranton: Jake Cave (10-20, 6 R, HR, 2 2B, 2 3B)- Cave has an insane .362/.375/.723 batting line (.389 TAv) in his first 48 PA since the promotion to Triple-A. He’s likely vaulted over the competition and put himself first in line for a call up.

Trenton: Mark Payton (9-26, 5 R, 2 2B, 4 RBI) The 24-year-old former seventh round pick is hitting .296/.367/.444 (.295 TAv) in 31 PA since his promotion to Double-A this season.

Tampa: Vicente Campos (7 IP, 0 ER, 4 K)- Campos has allowed two earned runs and struck out 18 in his last three starts, 19 1/3 innings.  

Charleston: Kyle Holder- (9-23, 5 R, 2 2B) Holder has a solid .305/.342/.381 (.249 TAv) batting line through his first 111 PAs, a major step up from the .213/.273/.253 slash (.206 TAv) he put up in his professional debut with Staten Island. He has strung together a 13 game hitting streak.

Notes

• Yet another blow for former Yankees’ first rounder Ty Hensley on Friday as Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees Blog reported that the oft-injured 22-year-old pitcher will undergo his second Tommy John surgery in as many seasons. Hensley has only managed 14 minor league starts since being selected 30th overall in the 2012 amateur draft due to a variety of ailments.
• The Yankees signed veteran lefty reliever Neal Cotts to a minor league deal and assigned him to Triple-A Scranton Friday. The 36-year-old Cotts had a 3.41 ERA in 63 ⅓ innings split between the Brewers and Twins in 2015.
• Despite two strong starts after his promotion to SWB, Dietrich Enns was sent back down to Trenton Saturday to make room for Cotts.
• Infielder Thairo Estrada was promoted to High-A Tampa on Monday after hitting .286/.324/.429 with five homers during his first 148 PAs with Charleston. The Tampa infield is now pretty crowded with top talent, including Jorge Mateo, Miguel Andujar, and Abiatal Avelino.
• Luis Severino is expected to make a minor league rehab start next Sunday for High-A Tampa as he works his way back from a right triceps strain.
• Gary Sanchez left Tuesday’s game after taking a foul tip to his hand and was placed on the 15-day DL. Not great news for the RailRiders or the Yankees. He’s wrecked International League pitching this month, batting .333/.352/.580 in May. There is no official word yet as to the severity of the injury.

The Quote

“We view Mateo as a future MLB shortstop. We are preparing him to offer versatility to our major league club if needed when he arrives. His primary position is shortstop. Playing on the second base side will also help him when he moves to the right side of the diamond during infield defensive shifts.”- Vice President of Player Development Gary Denbo clearing up misconceptions about Jorge Mateo seeing time at second base for High-A Tampa (Courtesy of Chad Jennings and the LoHud Yankees Blog)

Many fans assumed that a position switch for Mateo was in the works after reports of him working out at second base surfaced. While the organization does have a glut of talent at shortstop in the lower minors, it hardly qualifies as a problem to have too many good players at a position. Whether the team uses its depth in trades or eventually moves players to new positions permanently, its a decision the Yankees won’t have to worry about for a while, if at all. For his part, Mateo looks ready for the jump to Double-A Trenton in the near future after batting .313/.369/.528 (.313 TAv) with 15 steals in his first 41 games with Tampa this season.

The Highlight

On Sunday Gary Sanchez and the RailRiders faced off against Pirates number one prospect Tyler Glasnow, whom BP ranked 11th in their “Top 101 Prospects of 2016.” In the sixth, Sanchez finally got the better of Glasnow, blasting a two-run shot to left-center to give Scranton a 2-0 lead and the eventual victory.

There’s not much to dislike about the young right-hander. He throws 95-plus, has a vicious slider and his youth indicates that the best is certainly yet to come. There was only one hiccup in his first taste of big-league action: a problem with the long ball.

Severino struck out his fair share of hitters, got ground balls and kept his walks reasonable, but his 1.30 HR/9 was downright ugly. The balls leaving the park against the young righty caused his FIP to balloon to 4.34 and his DRA was 3.72, taking a lit bit of the shine off a 2.89 ERA.

Pitching at Yankee Stadium is no easy task, and the sample size is small, so there’s no reason to panic about Severino’s inability to keep balls out of the bleachers. However, what his gopher-itis after his promotion shows is just how different the major-league level is to the minors.

In his four-year, 320.2 inning minor-league career Severino conceded exactly eight home runs. In just under two months with the Yankees he allowed nine. He didn’t change his approach in any significant way and still had strong strikeout/ground ball numbers, but at the game’s highest level mistakes do not go unpunished. This is the location of the pitches that Severino allowed round trippers on:

Pretty much right in the middle of the plate for the most part. A little bit up, but not up enough to cause any problems for the hitter. Severino as a guy who relies more on velocity than command has been missing his spots like this for his entire professional career, he just hasn’t seen guys who can make him pay for it. In his brief stint with the Yankees he most certainly did. This is the list of hitters who hit the nine pitches shown above:

That’s one hell of a list. These nine guys hit 4.5 percent of all big-league home runs last season and have left the park a whopping 1337 times in their respective careers. In a sense it’s hard to blame Severino for letting this group take him deep.

However, at the big-league level there are always going to be elite hitters lurking around every corner. If Severino can’t locate his pitches against them consistently, they will continue to do what they do best. Just throwing hard isn’t good enough against the top guys in the sport.

Given his age and the success he’s already had there’s very little reason to believe he won’t improve significantly. Other than the fact his choice of career both relies on the integrity of his arm and is, by definition, an arm-destroying endeavor, there’s no reason to be against Severino going forward.

His home run problems are likely to abate, but his early difficulties are a reminder of just how hard it is to make the jump to the big leagues, no matter how talented you are.

Lead photo: Andy Marlin / USA Today Sports

That changed in 2015. Luis Severino and Greg Bird both reached the major leagues and performed admirably. Bird was worth 1.1 WARP in 46 games, hitting .261/.343/.539 to go along with 11 home runs and a 10.7 percent walk rate. Bird is the heir apparent to Mark Teixeira at first base, and figured to be his eventual replacement at some point in 2016 when Teixeira’s propensity for injury comes into play. Yet fate is a cruel mistress indeed. Bird is out for the season following surgery to repair a torn labrum. He reportedly felt some pain in his shoulder towards the end of last year, and now we know why. There are worse problems for a team to have than not having a strong Plan B at first base. Far, far worse problems. That doesn’t make the loss sting any less.

Bird missing the season hurts us as fans for two reasons. The first is the absolute dread that comes with the knowledge that at some point, somehow, Teixeira will cash in his frequent flier miles and limp to the disabled list. That’s when Dustin Ackley, or Chase Headley, or even Brian McCann could find himself spending far too much time at first base.

The second is that we love to see prospects succeed, especially when the system hasn’t produced a strong talent in years. Bird is part of a holy trinity of prospects that also includes Severino and Aaron Judge that Yankees fans have hung their hat on as their source of hope for the future. The ancient likes of Texieira and Carlos Beltran are finally starting to filter out of the roster. The next generation of Yankees is on the horizon, but it just hit a major bump in the road.

So, how should one deal with the sadness of losing an exciting young player like Bird to injury for a whole year?

Well, not exactly.

1. Remember the other cool stuff happening with the Yankees
   We may not get to watch Bird mash dingers for a while. That blows. However, we do get to watch Severino make batters look life fools all year. We get to see if Starlin Castro turns back into a productive hitter while forming half of the youngest double play combinations that the Yankees have had in eons. Plus, Aaron Judge should be hitting the Bronx at some point this year, and if you like homers, you’re going to love him.
2. Don’t forget that prospects break your heart
   Bird was really good during his big league cameo in 2015. That doesn’t mean he would have been really good in 2016. One of the complaints that scouts have with Bird is that he’s often too selective at the plate, which can easily put him in two-strike counts, and that leads to lots of strikeouts. The pitchers of the AL East could theoretically still figure out the secret to dismantling Bird as they see him for a second time. As awesome as he is, Bird isn’t a proven big-league product just yet.
3. Think about the Orioles’ pitching staff
   Baltimore is set to roll out a rotation of Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman, and, well, theoretically someone has to be the fifth starter, right? Those guys are going to have to pitch in Yankee Stadium pretty often. And Camden Yards, for that matter. Isn’t that lovely?
4. Think about the back of the Yankees’ bullpen 
   Mmmm, strikeouts. The Yankees will be playing quite a few six-inning games this year. Who needs the Royals?
5. Look up some of the prospects still kicking around on the farm
   Jorge Mateo is faster than a speeding bullet, and he plays shortstop. James Kaprielian is going to move through the ranks rather quickly. Dustin Fowler plays center field and does just about everything well, including hitting. Jacob Lindgren will finally ascend to the major leagues, elbow-embedded bone chip free, to strike out every batter he can get his hands on. Here, enjoy BP’s Top 10 Yankees prospects.
6. Watch A-Rod hit home runs
   It’s so soothing.

Learning about Bird’s injury probably injected an awful feeling into your soul. Breathe easy, let it all out. Just follow these six steps and everything will be okay.

That, and read BP Bronx as often as you can.

Lead photo: Noah K. Murray/USA Today Sports

A year ago I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Ben’s assessment. In fact, last September as a second straight non-playoff season wound to its end, I wrote that the Yankees were “destined for a down period, the type every other team goes through every few years, and this time there’s not much they can do about it.”

But the Yankees defied my expectations and reached the playoffs in 2015 thanks to surprising contributions from some players — notably Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran — that I had assumed to be dead money.

Still, three months ago I still assumed a short rebuild period was on the way. The Yankees’ 87 wins in 2015 didn’t seem repeatable with the team’s core aging and its depth chart stuck with some hard-to-fill holes. Brian Cashman’s commitment to youth meant the Yankees’ wouldn’t sacrifice prospects to restock the current team, which meant they would stumble through the next three years making due with what they had.

Then, Cashman went out and traded for Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro and Aroldis Chapman and parted with only a backup catcher, middle reliever and four largely insignificant prospects. Suddenly the 2016 Yankees appear better on paper than last year’s team, and 85 wins looks like the floor for the upcoming season.

After all that’s happened in the last calendar year, from a surprise playoff berth to an impressive off-season, I’ve come to believe the Yankees can in fact have it all. Cashman is walking a tightrope, trying to contend while counting down the years until Teixeira, Rodrguez, Beltran and CC Sabathia come off the books and a crop of superstars becomes available. He’s not only kept from falling during this high-wire act, he seems to have kept himself impeccably balanced.

Despite his pessimistic view of the short-term future, Ben concedes the Yankees will probably compete for a playoff spot in 2016. This will be a team without stars, but thanks to Cashman, one without serious holes, especially if a mid-rotation starting pitcher arrives before Opening Day.

Let’s fast-forward to 2017. Teixeira and Beltran will be off the books, and Greg Bird and Aaron Judge will likely inherit playing time with their departures. The Yankees will likely still have to pay Chase Headley, Brian McCann, A-Rod and Jacoby Ellsbury more money than they’re worth, but a young position-player core will be in place, and by that time the Tanaka-Severino-Pineda-Eovaldi starting rotation will have hit its prime.

There’s little sense in predicting as far into the future as 2018, but it seems reasonable to assume much of the emerging group of 20-somethings will remain assembled, with other additions to prop them up. Cashman has shown in recent years an impressive ability to acquire real big-league value without sacrificing much of consequence. Eovaldi cost David Phelps. Didi Gregorius cost Shane Greene. Starlin Castro cost Adam Warren. No general manager wins every trade, but Cashman seems to be coming close. If there’s any executive in baseball I trust to make the kinds of incremental improvements that boost a team from 80 wins to 85, or from 85 to 90, it’s the guy running the Yankees.

Ben’s forecast for a Yankee decline rests on the idea that though the 2015 core was overpaid, it provided value that will likely dwindle over the next few years. And while this is true, it doesn’t take into account the group whose value will presumably increase between now and 2018. The progression of Gregorius, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Castro, Bird and Judge, plus any additions Cashman makes over the next few off-seasons, should counteract some of the graying and keep the Yankees above water. Like the 2013-15 Yankees, the 2016-18 squads will feature several high-mileage players trending downward. But unlike recent teams, these next few will also include a promising group of youngsters.

The Yankees are rebuilding, but so far they’ve managed to prepare for the future without totally sacrificing the past. It’s a tough act to pull off, but right now it appears to be working.

They likely won’t be great team at any point during the next three years, but the Yankees might very well be better from 2016-18 than they were from 2013-15. At the very least it remains quite possible they remain above .500 and in playoff contention each season until the 2018 cavalry comes to join the prospects and restore the Yankees to glory.

Lead photo: Noah K. Murray/USA Today Sports

Once again, the Yankees find themselves in a nebulous space before the inception of the regular season. The AL East is not as wide open as it seemed to be at the beginning of the 2015 season. The Rays are decidedly dead for the time being, and the Orioles currently have a pitching staff held together with scotch tape and Ubaldo Jimenez. The Blue Jays will still have their wrecking crew lineup, and the Red Sox have a revamped bullpen to go along with their shiny new David Price.

The Yankees are somewhere in the middle. They’ve added an elite reliever, a good young outfielder, and a young second baseman. Yet they’re still very old, and still own the most fragile starting rotation in the division. Many of the things that went wrong for the 2015 Yankees can once again go wrong for the 2016 Yankees, and in dramatic fashion. However, what we’ve witnessed thus far has been the continuation of a slow but steady youth movement that’s been long overdue for New York. The Yankees could win the division as easily as they could self-immolate in a fantastic display of Murphy’s Law operating on a $200 million budget.

The 2016 season will operate as a crossroads of sorts. It will be the final year of Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran, and only the baseball gods know whether or not Alex Rodriguez will be able to survive a second season back unscathed. More and more products of a suddenly bountiful farm system will graduate, and the very essence of the team will begin to change. What follows are things to watch for on this year’s version of the Bronx Bombers.

• Young Messers Severino and Bird: Luis Severino will be undertaking his first full season of big-league ball. After holding opposing hitters to a 2.89 ERA (3.82 DRA) in just over 60 innings of work, how he handles a second swing through the league will be incredibly important. Severino was arguably the Yankees’ best starter down the stretch, and they’ll need him to be excellent once more if they truly have designs on contending. Meanwhile, Greg Bird won’t even begin the season in the Bronx, but instead down at Scranton. There’s simply no room for him to get regular plate appearances with both Teixeira and A-Rod healthy, so he’ll wait until one of them is injured to come up. Bird is almost certainly the Yankees’ first baseman of the future, and a second strong run at big-league pitching will show whether or not his strikeout concerns will hold him back from being an offensive cornerstone.
• The Labors of Alex Rodriguez: The most fascinating man in New York had a year for the ages in terms of pure story. While I could wax poetic about A-Rod for eons, and probably will, what’s important here is that the Yankees are gambling on their resident Methuselah to supply the dingers once again. Being restricted to a DH role is good for A-Rod’s sustainability, but he can only cheat death for so long. Even just last year, he faded in the late months of the season. He will require more days off, and will likely find himself on the business end of the disabled list at some point. But it’s A-Rod that will need to do much of the heavy lifting for the Yankees this year, and that’s a little scary.
• The Other Four Guys: We know that the monstrous Aroldis Chapman/Andrew Miller/Dellin Betances trio is unfair and likely part of a video game that seeped into the real world in a strange reversal of Tron. There’s no debate to be had there. However, there are still four other jobs open in that bullpen. Two of them likely belong to Chasen Shreve and Jacob Lindgren, meaning that the Yankees will roll out with four lefty relievers. One more spot is likely Bryan Mitchell’s, as he’ll be doing the Adam Warren super-swingman job. The seventh spot probably once again belongs to the Scranton Wilkes-Barre Frequent Flyer Club again, meaning it’ll be filled by the various up-and-down Triple-A relief arms. Is that good enough? Are the Yankees too left-handed? We know that Chapman and Miller make short work of any who dare face them, and Shreve was good at getting guys out regardless of which box they stood in (until he couldn’t get anybody out). Lindgren is supposedly in that same mold. Only time will tell, but the middle relievers could be just as good as the menacing figures lurking in the late innings.
• The Trade Deadline: Brian Cashman could be in two very different positions once that most magical part of the summer comes to town. The Yankees could either need a few more pieces to put them over the top, or they could be the New York Post’s favorite punching bag every single morning. Should the first scenario come to pass, it will be quite fascinating to see just how crazy he’s willing to get. If the Bronx is burning, players such as Chase Headley, Brett Gardner (if he hasn’t already been traded), and Andrew Miller could become quite tantalizing targets for the shrewd shopper. Neither scenario would be particularly surprising, of course, which makes the coming season all the more anticipated.

I could go on and on about what to look for. However, we here at BP Bronx need topics to write about, and there’s only so much I can say before your eyes glaze over and you drift into a dream of reaching over Zack Hample’s shoulder to catch a home run ball. I can’t say I blame you.

The Yankees are not the Blue Jays, with their mortar-launching offense. They aren’t the Cubs and their unyielding supply of prospects, nor are they the Red Sox with their Mookie Betts. But for the first time in what feels like a lifetime, the Yankees may very well be genuinely interesting. That counts for something, and nobody really wants to be the Red Sox anyway. We’re going to take you all the way to Opening Day here at BP Bronx, and then we’ll take you through the end of the season. There’s a lot to write about, and a lot to dream about. There’s a lot of baseball to watch. Soon enough, we’ll have just that back in our lives.

Baseball.

Lead photo courtesy of Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

If the season started tomorrow, the Yankees’ starting rotation would look something like this:

Masahiro Tanaka
Luis Severino
Michael Pineda
Nathan Eovaldi
CC Sabathia

Ivan Nova
Bryan Mitchell

Now that’s not so bad. All seven of those guys have had some degree of success one time or another and could contribute in 2016. As a bonus, six of the seven are younger than 30 years old. But, like last year, the rotation carries a number of question marks. Will Pineda be healthy? Will we see the version of Sabathia that dominated September or the one that struggled through April, May, June and July (and that’s not even touching on the fact that he’ll be pitching for the first time since checking into rehab last October)? Can Nova bounce back from a bad season? Is Mitchell truly an MLB-caliber starter?

Given the uncertainty, it’s likely the Yankees will add to their rotation before Opening Day. And given their apparent commitment to youth and austerity, we can assume they’ll look for a young, cost-controlled option. But young starters certainly don’t grow on trees, and any team that has a 25-year-old, mid-rotation pitcher won’t likely part with him easily.

With Shelby Miller off the board and Jose Fernandez’s price prohibitively high, let’s look at some young pitchers Brian Cashman might think about placing calls on.

Category I: The Deep Rebuilding Team

Though most rebuilding teams want to hold on to their mid-20s players, occasionally a team embarks on a teardown so thorough it will part with even its young major leaguers. Here, we’re looking for pitchers young enough to help the Yankees in the near future but old enough that their current teams are willing to cash in for prospects.

• Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves

The Braves have already traded the 25-year-old Miller and 26-year-old Andrelton Simmons, so they would probably be willing to part with the 24-year-old Teheran for the right price. This would be somewhat of a buy-low move, as the righty is coming off an unimpressive season on the heels of two good ones. Teheran would cost the Yankees at least one of their top prospects (Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Jorge Mateo), but unlike Fernandez wouldn’t require a package built around Severino.

• Taylor Jungmann, Milwaukee Brewers

Jungmann had a nice rookie year in 2015 (3.77 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 119.1 innings), but he’s already 25 years old, and the Brewers aren’t anywhere close to contention. There’s no specific indication that the 2011 first-round pick is available, but he’s the type of low-ceiling guy a rebuilding team might consider moving under the right circumstances.

• Anthony Desclafani/Rasiel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds

This could be a stretch, but the Reds have a ton of young arms, and maybe they’d be willing to part with one of the older, more developed ones. Desclafani and Iglesias are both almost 26 with solid rookie seasons under their belts. Would Cincinnati give up guys who don’t hit arbitration for a few more years? Who knows, but it’s probably worth a call.

Category II: The Low-floor/high-ceiling guys

The Yankees could pursue a young starting pitcher whose previous teams are ready to move on following early-career injury or ineffectiveness.

• Henderson Alvarez, free agent

The Marlins non-tendered Alvarez only a year after he posted a 2.65 ERA and 3.58 FIP over 187 innings, which indicates an enormous lack of confidence in his ability to come back strong from shoulder surgery. Still, the 25-year-old has shown he can pitch at an elite level and will offer high-risk upside to whoever signs him.

• Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are supposedly discussing trades involving the 26-year-old Moore, who has thrown only 73 innings in the past two years. Once upon a time, Moore was one of the top three prospects in baseball along with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, and the Yankees (along with everyone else) will be tempted to try to recapture that potential.

• Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels

Skaggs hasn’t lived up to his top-prospect hype, with a career 4.72 ERA in 181 innings, but his 3.55 FIP in 2015 suggests a breakout could lie ahead. The Angels have more starting pitchers (Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Hector Santiago, Matt Shoemaker, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson) than they know what to do with, so perhaps they’d consider dealing the 24-year-old Skaggs.

Category III: May I interest you in Brett Gardner?

The Yankees’ willingness to trade Gardner opens up the possibility of working with a contending team that simply needs an outfielder (plus some prospects) more than a starting pitcher.

• Taijuan Walker/James Paxton, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have already reportedly turned down a deal centered around Gardner and the 23-year-old Walker but are open to giving up 27-year-old James Paxton. Given Seattle’s need for outfielders, this one makes enough sense for the teams to eventually find some middle ground.

• Danny Salazar/Trevor Bauer/Cody Anderson, Cleveland Indians

The Indians are reportedly listening to offers on all their starting pitchers, and though Carlos Carrasco’s price tag is likely greater than the Yankees are willing to pay, Cashman could make a move for Salazar, 25, Bauer, 24 or Anderson, 25. One of these deals could require forking over some good prospects in addition to Gardner, but the 32-year-old left fielder could be an appealing target for an offense-starved Cleveland team.

• Zack Wheeler, New York Mets

The Mets have an excess of young starting pitching, and the 25-year-old Wheeler, coming off Tommy John surgery, could be the odd man out. The question is, does Sandy Alderson need an outfielder to replace Yoenis Cespedes, or are they content to start the season with a Michael Conforto/Juan Lagares/Curtis Granderson alignment.

Lead photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports