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	<title>Bronx &#187; Kris Bryant</title>
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		<title>Aaron Judge and player comparisons</title>
		<link>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/26/aaron-judge-and-player-comparisons/</link>
		<comments>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/26/aaron-judge-and-player-comparisons/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Apr 2017 18:38:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lance Brozdowski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Judge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Giancarlo Stanton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kris Bryant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kyle Higashioka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Joyce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miguel Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mookie Betts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Schebler]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8324</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The method sports fans use to prepare themselves for a new generation of prospects is to draw comparisons. We do it all the time&#8211; maybe even too much. Comparisons are crude, inaccurate and based on so many subjective factors that we often blur the line between performance and aesthetic comps. Every short, hard-nosed middle infielder is [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The method sports fans use to prepare themselves for a new generation of prospects is to draw comparisons. We do it all the time&#8211; maybe even too much. Comparisons are crude, inaccurate and based on so many subjective factors that we often blur the line between performance and aesthetic comps.</p>
<p>Every short, hard-nosed middle infielder is Dustin Pedroia. Every power bat with a strikeout problem is Chris Carter. Every high-ceiling outfielder with the injury bug is Grady Sizemore. The comparisons inevitable because of how we choose to inform people about players they&#8217;ve never seen. That is where the inefficiency exists among the baseball community.</p>
<p>When you&#8217;re talking baseball with anybody on this site or in the Baseball Prospectus universe, you generally don&#8217;t need player comps. There is a good chance that that crowd will know who Kyle Higashioka is or which two players are platooning in left field for the San Francisco Giants. We don&#8217;t need every player to be qualified with &#8220;a better/worse version of _____&#8221;.</p>
<p>When speaking to the general baseball-watching public about a player they&#8217;ve never <em>seen, </em>but desire to know about, comparisons are the easiest way to draw an imaginary profile of said player in their minds. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that, it&#8217;s simply a refined form of communication, which desires to be efficient. Turmoil ensues when the two worlds meet.</p>
<p>If an educated baseball fan hears a comparison between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, their immediate reaction is to cite the 800-game gap in major league playing time or point out the reasons the comparison is wrong. This is a fair point, but what if the comparison is merely to draw a mental image?</p>
<p>Watch any footage of Judge&#8217;s swing at the minor league level (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYqRVM609Ck" target="_blank">like this one</a>) and it&#8217;s strikingly similar to Stanton&#8217;s at any level (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3k6GhU4vSI" target="_blank">right here</a>). Even if you see discrepancies between the two, the reality is that Judge&#8217;s swing is more like Stanton&#8217;s than a multitude of other right-handed bats. If you put Stanton in a pool with a plethora of other players at the major league level, more likely than not you&#8217;re going to find Judge and Stanton syncing up more than you would expect from all the initial comparison push-back.</p>
<p>Miguel Cabrera&#8217;s swing (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hhc05GlnwE" target="_blank">seen here</a>) is pretty different than either Stanton&#8217;s or Judge&#8217;s. Cabrera is much more fluid in setting up his hands, syncing his load and lower body earlier as he awaits the pitch, similar, but even less exaggerated than a player like Josh Donaldson&#8217;s rhythm (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dB3roW5wkMo" target="_blank">seen here</a>). This comes from a rotational style of hitting, where the hips and lower body are involved more than if a player were to employ a linear style of hitting. Some simple<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pbyFMnIjjY" target="_blank"> YouTube searching</a> gets you to this exact difference, and explains rotation versus linear swings pretty darn well.</p>
<p>Mookie Betts, as shown in that YouTube-sourced video, hits with this linear approach (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pbyFMnIjjY" target="_blank">here</a>). It&#8217;s direct, tends to produce line drives and utilizes much more of the upper body from the hands to the shoulders.</p>
<p>If you were to ask somebody which player pair is more alike &#8212; Judge and Betts or Judge and Donaldson &#8212; I have a feeling many may lean towards the Blue Jays&#8217; slugger with similar perceived power. But the answer to this question can just as easily be Betts. Going back to our linear versus rotational style of hitting, Judge and Betts both take direct, linear paths to the ball from a similar plane. Their load is quick, simple, and they generate a good amount of their power from hard-hit line drives.</p>
<p>When you venture into performance territory, the comparisons become a whole different story. Take, for example, who Baseball Prospectus currently lists as <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68603" target="_blank">comparable players</a> for Judge.</p>
<p><a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/04/Screen-Shot-2017-04-24-at-11.01.43-PM.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-8337" src="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/04/Screen-Shot-2017-04-24-at-11.01.43-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-04-24 at 11.01.43 PM" width="920" height="308" /></a></p>
<p>I would guess not many people know who 80 percent of these players are. Sure, you might recognize the name Matt Joyce, but did you know that he&#8217;s a lefty who signed a two-year, $11 million contract with the Athletics in the offseason? Or that Scott Schebler is actually only 26 years old and produced a 162-game pace of about 2.2 WARP; which would&#8217;ve been higher than Albert Pujols and Andrew McCutchen in 2016?</p>
<p>While Judge is making projection models look a bit silly at the moment, the most important thing has nothing to do with the long ball. It&#8217;s all about the plate discipline. I&#8217;ll spare you the deep dive (<a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/13/the-adaptability-of-aaron-judge/" target="_blank">which Andrew Gargano has already done</a>), but Judge has gone from a 40-plus percent strikeout player to what seems like a 25 percent strikeout player in one offseason. His swinging strike rate has fallen by nearly ten percentage points, which is astounding for his age, drawing comparisons to one of the most impressive improvements from 2015 to 2016 that I saw &#8212;  Kris Bryant, who cut his strikeout rate by eight percentage points and watched his batting average and on-base/slugging percentages migrate north as a result. Judge&#8217;s change is in the same realm as Bryant&#8217;s, just not yet across a big enough sample size.</p>
<p>As we circle back to our Stanton performance comp, I think I may be coming around to the fact that they aren&#8217;t actually that similar. It took Stanton six seasons of 100+ games to post a strikeout rate below 26 percent. Judge is sitting on a 25.4 percent strikeout rate as he heads towards the 70-plate appearance mark this week.</p>
<p>Keep a close eye on this number moving forward. Soon Judge may be the one we&#8217;re saying is in a league of his own.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>Lead photo: Charles LeClaire / USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>It&#8217;s Not Gleyber Time&#8230; Yet</title>
		<link>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/22/its-not-gleyber-time-yet/</link>
		<comments>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/22/its-not-gleyber-time-yet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Mar 2017 15:12:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lance Brozdowski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Didi Gregorius]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gleyber Torres]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jhonny Peralta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Panik]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kris Bryant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pete Kozma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ronald Torreyes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ruben Tejada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Wade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7833</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are few times when a fanbase feels excitement after the injury bug bites a player who posted 20 home runs and a .276 average in the prior year, but with the news trickling out of Steinbrenner field on Tuesday afternoon that shortstop Didi Gregorius will miss the month of April with a shoulder hematoma, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are few times when a fanbase feels excitement after the injury bug bites a player who posted 20 home runs and a .276 average in the prior year, but with the news trickling out of Steinbrenner field on Tuesday afternoon that shortstop Didi Gregorius will miss the month of April with a shoulder hematoma, it was hard to silence the buzz around <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160" target="_blank">BP&#8217;s number 15 prospect</a>, Gleyber Torres.</p>
<p>While this sent me down a rabbit hole of disgusting hematoma pictures and how to treat them —<i> </i>apparently cabbage and mustard <a href="https://authorityremedies.com/how-to-treat-a-hematoma/" target="_blank">can actually help</a><i> — </i>the more important matter at hand is who we&#8217;ll see donning pinstripes in place of Gregorius for the month of April.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll break the other bad news right now.</p>
<p>The rational replacements for Gregorius aren&#8217;t nearly as exciting as the grand prize in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Torres has earned scouts&#8217; attention, not only because of his Arizona Fall League MVP trophy, but because of his success and poise at 19 years old. Backing up the critical acclaim with a .464 average and 1.448 OPS over 28 at bats this spring, Torres seems ready to slot in at short if the Yankees want to blow up headlines and fantasy baseball drafts this close to the start of the season. The bat control he showed on his first homer of spring, going the other way on a 3-2 fastball off the plate was one of the things that impressed myself and others the most.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wHEIkUcUTd8" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>If this decision was that easy, Torres jerseys would be already be sold out.</p>
<p>For one, I don&#8217;t even see the top prospect staying at shortstop long term, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30752" target="_blank">others agree</a>. A move to third base or second seems most likely as he solidifies his approach at the plate. As the skeptical chatter about how his range will play at the major league level bubbles into our conscious, it only validates this point.</p>
<p>There is the also the inevitable &#8216;prospect control&#8217; matter, which has caused some of the most able bodied prospects to stick around the minors — Kris Bryant always comes to mind — a few days longer to promote long term visions of workability in free agent budgets. This discussion of &#8216;super two&#8217; players deserves a thousand words on its own, but the details are less interesting than an accounting textbook, so I&#8217;ll do my part to retain some BP Bronx readers and punt the topic to other sites. As much as the Yankees may stress Torres&#8217; development, the money involved is a clear matter of importance as well.</p>
<p>In the wake of all this speculation, Torres was just reassigned to Double-A Trenton, which will soon put to sleep the already tired critique that the Yankees&#8217; number one prospect doesn&#8217;t have any at bats above High-A. We should see Torres in the Bronx this year, at the earliest sometime in June, but there is an equal chance a September call-up is the more accurate prediction.</p>
<p>The Trenton Thunder open their season on Thursday, April 6, against the Erie Seawolves (Detroit Tigers Double-A affiliate).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Replacements</strong></h3>
<p><a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/03/USATSI_9957715_168381444_lowres.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-7850" src="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/03/USATSI_9957715_168381444_lowres-1024x733.jpg" alt="USATSI_9957715_168381444_lowres" width="1024" height="733" /></a></p>
<p>All short-term in my eyes. The Gregorius injury is enough to promote some caution and his removal from the World Baseball Classic, but not discouraging enough to expect a completely lost 2017 season.</p>
<p>PECOTA pegged Didi for just under a 2 win season, with a .259 average and 14 home runs at their 50th percentile outcome (reasonable expectation). While the 100th percentile (bold expectation) of a .290 season and another shot at 20 home runs may seem like a pipe dream, take away roughly 100 at bats from Gregorius, and we&#8217;re still in the realm of valuable production at a premium position.</p>
<p>Ronald Torreyes, Ruben Tejada and Pete Kozma are the players of note that should see uptick in consideration for at bats.</p>
<p>Torreyes, who comps well to a player out in San Francisco by the name of Joe Panik, graduates from utility defender to a candidate who should exceed his 99 total innings at shortstop in 2016 very quickly.</p>
<p>Tejada always finds himself in the right place at the right time. Last season he was picked up by the St. Louis Cardinals to fill the void created when Jhonny Peralta went down with a bad thumb. A good thing to remember about Tejada is that Mike Matheny, a relatively strict manager when it comes to liberal prospect use, only started favor the 2016 breakout Aledmys Diaz late in Spring, after a Tejada injury manifested just prior to opening day. While there may be some merit to Matheny&#8217;s want for Tejada in early 2016, I&#8217;m doubtful that the former Mets starter is anything but a deep bench bat at the major league level.</p>
<p>To make things worse, Tejada&#8217;s defense has seen some decline in the past few years. With limited reps at the major league level and mediocre results to show, the fountain of youth is the only remedy I see for the kindling of life in a player I thought was <em>much</em> older than 27 years old.</p>
<p>Kozma is the third and final candidate for playing time, and while I entertained the idea of excitement for Tyler Wade, a young middle infielder who scored 90 runs at Double-A Trenton last season, the short term impact this situation has makes me skeptical the Yankees start handing out starts to even less proven talents than Torres.</p>
<p>I may be one of the only ones who remembers Kozma&#8217;s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaExRlq-ybo" target="_blank">clutch RBI</a> in game five of the 2012 NLDS, and to say that was the apex of Kozma&#8217;s career isn&#8217;t a brash. Kozma had 450+ at bats in 2016 with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, batting only .209 with a slugging percentage below .300. If Kozma is anything but an afterthought in this situation, even with a glove that has shown promise at the major league level, I will be one surprised individual.</p>
<p>What we have in the mix for time at shortstop is the 2016 utility man Ronald Torreyes, flanked but two much less appealing options in Ruben Tejada and Pete Kozma. Torreyes&#8217; performance last season and his flexibility around the diamond has earned him a chance to prosper with a small sample of regular playing time. I think depth is necessary, which is why Tejada and Kozma should be in the discussion, but the only player that can return value is Torreyes.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m eager to see the results of some trust extended to the 24 year old. It&#8217;s not Torres time quite yet, but it sure seems like Torreyes time.</p>
<p><em>Photos: Kim Klement, Jasen Vinlove/USA Today Sports</em></p>
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