If the season started tomorrow, the Yankees’ starting rotation would look something like this:

Masahiro Tanaka
Luis Severino
Michael Pineda
Nathan Eovaldi
CC Sabathia

Ivan Nova
Bryan Mitchell

Now that’s not so bad. All seven of those guys have had some degree of success one time or another and could contribute in 2016. As a bonus, six of the seven are younger than 30 years old. But, like last year, the rotation carries a number of question marks. Will Pineda be healthy? Will we see the version of Sabathia that dominated September or the one that struggled through April, May, June and July (and that’s not even touching on the fact that he’ll be pitching for the first time since checking into rehab last October)? Can Nova bounce back from a bad season? Is Mitchell truly an MLB-caliber starter?

Given the uncertainty, it’s likely the Yankees will add to their rotation before Opening Day. And given their apparent commitment to youth and austerity, we can assume they’ll look for a young, cost-controlled option. But young starters certainly don’t grow on trees, and any team that has a 25-year-old, mid-rotation pitcher won’t likely part with him easily.

With Shelby Miller off the board and Jose Fernandez’s price prohibitively high, let’s look at some young pitchers Brian Cashman might think about placing calls on.

Category I: The Deep Rebuilding Team

Though most rebuilding teams want to hold on to their mid-20s players, occasionally a team embarks on a teardown so thorough it will part with even its young major leaguers. Here, we’re looking for pitchers young enough to help the Yankees in the near future but old enough that their current teams are willing to cash in for prospects.

• Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves

The Braves have already traded the 25-year-old Miller and 26-year-old Andrelton Simmons, so they would probably be willing to part with the 24-year-old Teheran for the right price. This would be somewhat of a buy-low move, as the righty is coming off an unimpressive season on the heels of two good ones. Teheran would cost the Yankees at least one of their top prospects (Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Jorge Mateo), but unlike Fernandez wouldn’t require a package built around Severino.

• Taylor Jungmann, Milwaukee Brewers

Jungmann had a nice rookie year in 2015 (3.77 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 119.1 innings), but he’s already 25 years old, and the Brewers aren’t anywhere close to contention. There’s no specific indication that the 2011 first-round pick is available, but he’s the type of low-ceiling guy a rebuilding team might consider moving under the right circumstances.

• Anthony Desclafani/Rasiel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds

This could be a stretch, but the Reds have a ton of young arms, and maybe they’d be willing to part with one of the older, more developed ones. Desclafani and Iglesias are both almost 26 with solid rookie seasons under their belts. Would Cincinnati give up guys who don’t hit arbitration for a few more years? Who knows, but it’s probably worth a call.

Category II: The Low-floor/high-ceiling guys

The Yankees could pursue a young starting pitcher whose previous teams are ready to move on following early-career injury or ineffectiveness.

• Henderson Alvarez, free agent

The Marlins non-tendered Alvarez only a year after he posted a 2.65 ERA and 3.58 FIP over 187 innings, which indicates an enormous lack of confidence in his ability to come back strong from shoulder surgery. Still, the 25-year-old has shown he can pitch at an elite level and will offer high-risk upside to whoever signs him.

• Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are supposedly discussing trades involving the 26-year-old Moore, who has thrown only 73 innings in the past two years. Once upon a time, Moore was one of the top three prospects in baseball along with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, and the Yankees (along with everyone else) will be tempted to try to recapture that potential.

• Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels

Skaggs hasn’t lived up to his top-prospect hype, with a career 4.72 ERA in 181 innings, but his 3.55 FIP in 2015 suggests a breakout could lie ahead. The Angels have more starting pitchers (Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Hector Santiago, Matt Shoemaker, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson) than they know what to do with, so perhaps they’d consider dealing the 24-year-old Skaggs.

Category III: May I interest you in Brett Gardner?

The Yankees’ willingness to trade Gardner opens up the possibility of working with a contending team that simply needs an outfielder (plus some prospects) more than a starting pitcher.

• Taijuan Walker/James Paxton, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have already reportedly turned down a deal centered around Gardner and the 23-year-old Walker but are open to giving up 27-year-old James Paxton. Given Seattle’s need for outfielders, this one makes enough sense for the teams to eventually find some middle ground.

• Danny Salazar/Trevor Bauer/Cody Anderson, Cleveland Indians

The Indians are reportedly listening to offers on all their starting pitchers, and though Carlos Carrasco’s price tag is likely greater than the Yankees are willing to pay, Cashman could make a move for Salazar, 25, Bauer, 24 or Anderson, 25. One of these deals could require forking over some good prospects in addition to Gardner, but the 32-year-old left fielder could be an appealing target for an offense-starved Cleveland team.

• Zack Wheeler, New York Mets

The Mets have an excess of young starting pitching, and the 25-year-old Wheeler, coming off Tommy John surgery, could be the odd man out. The question is, does Sandy Alderson need an outfielder to replace Yoenis Cespedes, or are they content to start the season with a Michael Conforto/Juan Lagares/Curtis Granderson alignment.

Lead photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Ivan Nova is unfortunately a member of the third group. After struggling through start after start, the Yankees announced that Nova would move to the bullpen for the foreseeable future.

Yankees have removed Ivan Nova from the rotation. He will be available out of the bullpen.

— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) September 16, 2015

It’s a tough development but a necessary one as the Yankees chase a playoff spot and need every good start they can get. Since returning from the disabled list, Nova has thrown 75 2/3 innings of 5.11 ERA ball that includes a 1.40 WHIP and a whopping 10 home runs. His walk rate of 7.8 percent is the highest it’s been since 2011 and he’s been having trouble getting outs when he needs them. DRA says that his performance to date has been worthy of a 4.41 ERA, yet we’re dealing with a relatively small sample of work here and only 39.9 percent of his pitches have found the strike zone. That figure represents a career low for Nova.

The pitches that are in the zone are getting crushed. Watch below as a fastball that was supposed to be inside on Mookie Betts runs back over the plate and ends up over the Green Monster.

View post on imgur.com

That’s the kind of mistake that Nova has been making over and over again. The mighty Blue Jays ran him out of his last start in the second inning. The high fastball to Cliff Pennington in this linked video is somewhat excusable because, you know, it’s Cliff Pennington. However, Nova is lucky that his hanger to Jose Bautista stayed in the park. He then badly misses his spot to Russell Martin.

Nova was already a mid-back of the rotation starter, and losing even more of his control to Tommy John is a nail in the coffin to his role as a starter. The Yankees are currently looking for a bit of stability in middle relief, so if Nova can make his new job in the bullpen work in the coming weeks, he’ll justify getting a playoff roster spot. If not, then it will truly cement the fact that he may not have a job with the team next year. The Yankees badly need more stability in their rotation, and if they land a big starter in free agency or in a trade over the winter, Nova is the first man out.

Currently, next year’s rotation probably stacks up as Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia. Nova may already be in the bullpen as a swingman in that scenario, but he would likely step in to the rotation as those five names are chock full of injury concerns (not that a post-Tommy John Nova doesn’t have concerns of his own). With an embarrassment of riches hitting the market this winter, the Yankees will find a way to fit another arm or two into that group and Nova doesn’t seem to be long for his roster spot.

It’s a sad conclusion to one of the few homegrown starting careers that the Yankees have produced recently. Nova was never going to be anything truly special, yet now it looks like he’ll be fixing his problems in another organization come next spring. Teams such as the Pirates, White Sox, Cubs, Rays, Phillies, Braves and Padres could all feasibly be happy to take on Nova as a reclamation project. Depth is depth, after all, but the Yankees need depth that doesn’t come with an extensive medical history and an inability to throw effective strikes. More importantly, they need pitchers who can throw effective strikes right this moment. Ivan Nova does not fit that description at the moment, so to the bullpen he goes. In the meantime, the Yankees will hope that Adam Warren can quickly become effective once again as a starter and that CC Sabathia continues to pitch well. The Yankees sit three games behind Toronto in the AL East and will need every ounce of pitching they can scrounge up to catch the Jays, which means that a tough decision had to be made.

(Photo: Bob DeChiara-USA Today Sports)

Ivan Nova started for the Yankees, and Houston shelled him to the tune of seven runs, seven hits, and four walks over four innings.

“It was not a good game today,” said Ivan Nova. “It was bad that I have two bad starts in a row and I can’t help the team to win games, especially this late in the season. We are fighting for a spot in the playoffs, and pitching a game like this, it doesn’t help the team and doesn’t help myself.”

Nova’s inability to pitch well in a pressure spot the past two weeks has to be cause for concern, especially with C.C. Sabathia’s injury. It doesn’t appear that the Yankees will move to a six-man rotation any longer, meaning no extra time in between Nova starts.

In Tuesday’s loss, Nova was hit hard when he left a fair number of pitches about a foot above the bottom of the strike zone.

For a ground-ball pitcher, of course, the goal is to keep pitches down.

“We were trying to throw those sinkers in to the righties, and he just kept missing over the plate,” said catcher John Ryan Murphy. “That’s a good combination for hitting, and a bad combination for pitching.”

There’s the goal – down and in. There’s just one problem – that might not be such a great goal.

A glance at Ivan Nova’s zone profile entering Tuesday aligns perfectly with everything said above. Lots of pitches down in the zone, with the lower left quadrant favored.

Through his 11 starts, this has been the gameplan for Ivan Nova. When he doesn’t execute said gameplan, clunkers like this happen. So what happens when he does execute? The results aren’t so great.

On pitches down and in to righties this season, Nova has actually fared poorly:

As you will notice, going down and away has been effective, while staying on the inside part of the zone has been dangerous.

Not only is Nova’s go-to spot a potential landmine, his luck has been pretty good so far this season. He carries a career BABIP of .306, and hitters have had just a .270 average on balls in play against him entering the week. It may be that we are now seeing the real Ivan Nova.

His ERA has risen from 3.10 to 4.5o in August, coinciding with a red hot month from the Blue Jays, who have passed New York in the AL East. In order for the Yankees to get to October, they’ll need Nova to keep the ball down in the strike zone more consistently, and maybe even start moving to the outside corner. Of course, when he can’t control where he throws the ball, all of that goes out the window.

“I didn’t have good command today,” said Nova. “I tried to fight it, but I definitely didn’t have a good game.”

That can’t continue to happen.

(Photo: Andy Marlin-USA Today Sports)

Questions about the Yankees’ starters were raised. Should C.C. Sabathia move to the bullpen? Do the Yankees need to make a trade? Does this team have any legitimate shot at the playoffs with the way these guys are performing?

On Wednesday, Ivan Nova brought peace.

The 28 year-old returned after a 14-month layoff due to Tommy John surgery and threw six and 2/3 scoreless innings as the Yankees took the final game of their three-game set with the Phillies in commanding fashion, 10-2.

“I almost cried when I was walking by the tunnel,” Nova said. “When I first walked onto the mound, I didn’t believe it.”

He threw 92 pitches, hitting 95 MPH with his fastball, and reported afterwards that “it didn’t feel like I threw 92 pitches.”

Yankees fans joined in Nova’s rejoicing. The most unlikely man, one they hadn’t seen in over a year, had finally caught the Yankees and saved them from this miniature three-game freefall. That’s really all the skid was.

To the untrained eye, the Yankees’ starting pitching staff is somewhat unattractive. Warren, far from a household name, is the owner of the second-best ERA (3.62) on the team behind Tanaka (3.17). After that, the rest of New York’s starters are all well over four. Their staff ERA, collectively, ranks 22nd, and the batting average against them 27th.

And yet, the team doesn’t feel that way.

“I think it’s been a strength all year,” said catcher John Ryan Murphy. “I think our starters have done a great job going deep into games. [Nova] is just another guy who every five days he’s gonna go out there and you know what you’re going to get. It’s going to help the team.”

Using the brand-new DRA (Deserved Run Average), we can see the ERA that Yankees’ starters truly deserve to wear – 4.18, which would make them baseball’s 11th-best rotation. Opponents this season have a .307 BABIP, the eighth-highest mark in baseball. Just 24.4 percent of the batted balls against the Yankees have been line drives – the second-lowest mark in MLB. There are certainly reasons to believe their problems appear a bit worse than they really are.

When you really think about the situation the Yankees are in with their starting pitching, things aren’t so alarming. C.C. Sabathia is essentially the wild card of the staff. He’s been able to pitch into the sixth without surrendering more than three runs seven times in 15 starts this season. When you mix that in with the few disastrous performances he’s had, he is the prototypical wild card.

That’s all the Yankees need, truly. Tanaka and Pineda are proven at this point, and Warren and Eovaldi have kept afloat at the back end of the rotation. It just so happened that some of their worst outings of the year were jumbled together.

While the Yankees’ rotation has been somewhat unlucky, and isn’t necessarily bad, are they good? Can they win the AL East?

“I do believe it’s there,” said Joe Girardi. “Obviously you have to pitch your potential, but I am convinced. You put our team together and as we continue to get healthier as times goes on – we’re going to get Jacoby [Ellsbury] and [Andrew] Miller back – I do believe we have it in us.”

(Photo: Andy Marlin-USA Today Sports)

Key Moment(s): Despite adding five earned runs to Cole Hamels’ resume, the Yankees weren’t exactly crushing the ball as a lot of weak contact led to base hits and Phillies fielding follies. The top WPA play of the game was a fielder’s choice and throwing error with the bases loaded that gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead early, so we’ll just move along.

The key moment of the game came in the third inning as after retiring the first two Phillies he faced, Nova allowed a single to Ben Revere and walked Cesar Hernandez. It was at this point that big bad Maikel Franco, who had torched the Yankees in the first two games of the series knocking in five runs in each, stepped to the plate. With two strikes, Nova almost had his first strikeout of the season when Franco appeared to have went around on a check swing. First base umpire Alan Porter disagreed, however, and that prompted a reaction from Yankees manager Joe Girardi, who was ejected quickly before running out to first base to continue the discussion briefly. After the game, Girardi said that Porter told him to knock it off and that he said he would if Porter had gotten the call right, which apparently enough to get thrown out. Girardi almost seemed like he was more upset with getting thrown out quickly than the actual call on the field.

Anyway, Nova came back with a curveball to strikeout Franco for his only punch-out of the game. He cruised for most of the game and left to a standing ovation while waving his hat to the crown. The Yankees have been an up and down team so far this season, but the offense has come around even in the absence of Jacoby Ellsbury. If Nova continues to give the Yankees outings like this every fifth day, it would go a long way towards stabilizing the rotation.

Up Next: The Yankees are off to Houston, where they’ll face the American League West leading Astros. Adam Warren (5-4, 3.62 ERA) is set to face left-hander Dallas Keuchel (8-3, 2.35 ERA) on Thursday night at 8:10 eastern.

(Photo: Andy Marlin-USA Today Sports)